1
pertained to computation of avoided generation costs and determination of fuel cost
2
savings from various types of generating assets.
3
II. PURPOSE OF TESTIMONY
4
5
Q.
WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF YOUR TESTIMONY IN THIS PROCEEDING?
6
A.
The purpose of my testimony is to provide an overview of the circumstances
7
surrounding the decision to construct the Pirkey and Dolet Hills plants, to describe the
8
significant fuel cost savings SWEPCO's customers have received from operation of
9
the Pirkey and Dolet Hills lignite-fueled power plants, and to provide an estimate of
10
the additional costs that would be incurred by the customers if SWEPCO replaces the
11
capacity and energy of these two units with alternative sources of capacity and energy
12
over the remaining expected life of the units. My testimony will show that the fuel
13
cost savings from operation of these two low-cost base-load units since their in-
14
service dates have been approximately $1.8 Billion, or over two times the
15
construction costs of the units.
16
anticipates fuel cost savings from continued operation of the two units in the future
17
and estimates these savings to be $1.6 Billion over the next 22 years using current
18
forecasts.
19
decisional and construction prudence of Pirkey and Dolet Hills.
Furthermore, my testimony shows that SWEPCO
Company witness Thomas Flaherty will discuss the review of the
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III. SWEPCO'S LIGNITE UNITS AND THE
CIRCUMSTANCES SURROUNDING THEIR SELECTION
1
2
3
Q.
PLEASE DESCRIBE THE PIRKEY PLANT.
4
A.
The Pirkey plant is a lignite-fired power plant located in Harrison County, Texas, near
5
the town of Hallsville,between the cities of Marshall and Longview. The plant
6
consists of one generating unit which went into commercial operation in January
7
1985. The plant is currently rated at 675 MW of electrical output and is owned jointly
8
by SWEPCO, Northeast Texas Electric Cooperative, Inc. (NTEC) and the Oklahoma
9
Municipal Power Authority (OMPA).
The respective ownership shares are as
10
follows: 85.936%, 11.720%, and 2.344%, or approximately 580 MW, 79 MW, and 16
11
MW.
12
The Pirkey unit is a conventional steam electric plant utilizing pulverized
13
lignite as a fuel source in its boiler. The steam produced in the boiler powers a
14
Westinghouse turbine-generator. The unit employs a "once through" cooling system
15
in conjunction with a cooling water reservoir and has a wet scrubber system
16
for flue-gas desulfurization.
17
The unit, including its auxiliary buildings and cooling water reservoir, sits on
18
a power plant site comprising approximately 3000 acres. This site is adjacent to a
19
conventional strip mining operation which supplies the unit's fuel. The lignite is
20
delivered from the mine pit to the power plant by truck. The Pirkey unit was first
21
conceived in the early 1970's, but not committed to until 1978 after the merit of using
22
lignite as a fuel source was sufficiently explored. Construction work was initiated in
23
1978 and commercial operation was achieved in 1985.
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The original cost of
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I
SWEPCO's share at commercial operation was $426.1 million or $735/kW. The net
2
book value as of the end of the test year in this case is $151.1 million or $260/kW.
3
Q.
PLEASE DESCRIBE THE DOLET HILLS PLANT.
4
A.
The Dolet Hills Power Plant is essentially identical to the Pirkey Power Plant. The
5
only major difference between the two plants is the use of cooling towers at Dolet
6
Hills as opposed to the use of a cooling lake at Pirkey. The 650 MW lignite-fired
7
generating unit, located in DeSoto Parish, Louisiana, is the first lignite unit to be sited
8
in that state.
9
Company, NTEC and OMPA. The respective ownership shares are 40.234%,
10
50.000%, 5.860%, and 3.906%, or approximately 262 MW, 325 MW, 38 MW and
11
25 MW.
12
The unit is jointly owned by SWEPCO, Central Louisiana Electric
The Dolet Hills plant is adjacent to a conventional strip
mining
operation
13
which supplies the unit's fuel. Deliveries from the mine pit to the power plant are
14
made by way of a combination truck and conveyor system. The Dolet Hills plant site
15
comprises approximately 1600 acres. The primary difference between the size of the
16
Pirkey and Dolet Hills plant sites is attributable to the cooling lake at Pirkey. Similar
17
to Pirkey, the Dolet Hills Power Plant was first conceived in the early 1970's and
18
committed to in 1980, after consideration of the merit of relying on lignite the fuel
19
supply for this base load resource. Construction work was initiated in 1982 and
20
commercial operation was achieved in 1986.
21
operation of SWEPCO's 40.234% interest in Dolet Hills was $222.3 million or
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The original cost at commercial
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The net book value as of the end of the test year in this case is
1
$848/kW.
2
$71.3 million or $272/kW.
3
Q.
THE COMPANY'S DECISION TO CONSTRUCT THESE UNITS.
4
5
PLEASE DESCRIBE SOME OF THE CIRCUMSTANCES THAT INFLUENCED
A.
In the late 1970's, the Company was faced with load growth averaging 7% per year
6
and a need to add considerable capacity by the mid 1980's to reliably serve this
7
growth at reasonable cost. EXHIBIT ANH-1 S provides the forecasted peak load prior
8
to the construction of the two units. Beginning in the late 1960's and continuing into
9
the 1980's, the Company experienced a tightening of the market for natural gas,
10
meaning that gas contracting for long term gas supplies was becoming increasingly
11
costly.
12
The first sign of this tightening was the great difficulty the Company
13
encountered in 1969 when it sought a long-term, firm supply of natural gas for
14
planned generating units.
15
decision to select solid fuels for its subsequent unit additions.
This difficulty significantly influenced the Company's
16
The wisdom of selecting solid fuels was made apparent by the rapid escalation
17
in oil and gas prices that followed the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973. For example, as of
18
late 1972 the Company was paying, on the average, only $0.26/MMBTU for natural
19
gas.
20
Company was paying, on the average, $1.02/MMBTU for natural gas.
21
later, the Company's average price for natural gas had further jumped to
22
$2.29/MMBTU. These rapidly escalating prices resulted in a 780% increase in the
However, by 1978, when the Company committed to the Pirkey plant, the
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Four years
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1
cost of natural gas between 1972 and 1982. Furthermore, as shown in EXHIBIT
2
ANH-2S, the forecast of natural gas prices reflected the expectation that prices would
3
increase to levels higher than $4.00/MMBTU by 1986. Such forecasts signaled that
4
utilities could no longer plan to secure long-term contracts for gas and oil fuels at
5
reasonable prices. In response to the uncertainty and disruption in the natural gas fuel
6
market, governmental action at both the state and federal level added legal restrictions
7
greatly limiting the role natural gas could play in utilities' long-term resource plans.
8
In particular, the use of natural gas as a boiler fuel for new base-load plants was
9
prohibited by the Powerplant and Industrial Fuel Use Act of 1978 and the use of
10
natural gas for electric generation was severely limited by the Texas Railroad
11
Commission Docket 600 order of 1975. Also, this Commission was created in 1975
12
and for the next several years it articulated its support for the construction of coal,
13
lignite, and nuclear facilities by utilities in Texas in order to lessen the state's
14
dependence on natural gas.
15
Convenience and Necessity orders issued for the plants, Docket No. 2279 for Pirkey
16
and Docket No. 3733 for Dolet Hills. In both orders, the Commission concluded that
17
lignite facilities were the best solution to SWEPCO's growing need for power.
This policy was expressly stated in the Certificate of
18
SWEPCO's decision to construct lignite fired generation was also influenced
19
by concerns over the availability of coal supplies. During the middle portion of the
20
1970's, the nation was in the midst of a massive conversion to coal-based generation.
21
This concentration of demand on the emerging western coal market was creating a
22
need for significant new investment in mining equipment and railroad infrastructure
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I
in a period marked by high general inflation. This combination of circumstances, in
2
turn , created concern as to whether the coal suppliers and railroads could meet the
3
expected demand at reasonable prices.
4
time, the Company and a number of other utilities were embroiled in litigation over
5
either coal supply contracts, railroad tariffs or both.
6
Q.
Creating even more uncertainty during this
HOW DID THESE CIRCUMSTANCES AFFECT SWEPCO'S RESOURCE
PLANNING?
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
A.
By 1978, the impacts of the foregoing influences were evident. It was in this context
that the Company committed to implementing the options created through its lignite
acquisition program. By undertaking the construction of Pirkey and Dolet Hills, the
Company was able to put in place needed new sources of base-load generating
capacity that were dependent on neither western coal nor natural gas.
Other options to achieve this same fuel diversity were not open to the
Company. Significant growth in electrical demand was not confined to the Company.
The entire region faced the similar circumstance of needing additional capacity and,
thus, purchased power was not a viable option. Nuclear power was also not a viable
option in 1978 for capacity needed in the mid-1980's because of the long lead time
required to plan, site, design, license and construct a nuclear plant. Fuel oil was not a
reasonable alternative due to its high price, price volatility and the national emphasis
to reduce dependence on foreign fuel sources.
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1
Q.
DID OTHER ELECTRIC UTILITIES IN THE REGION ALSO BUILD LIGNITE
2
FIRED UNITS IN THE TIME FRAME PIRKEY AND DOLET HILLS WERE
3
CONSTRUCTED?
4
A.
Yes. Utilities that had reasonable access to lignite fuel planned and constructed over
The lignite units and the
5
9,500 MW of lignite fired generating capacity.
6
corresponding in-service dates in the states of Texas and Louisiana are shown in
7
EXHIBIT ANH-3S. The amount of lignite fired generating capacity built shows that
8
many other utilities faced issues similar to SWEPCO and decided that construction of
9
lignite-based generation was the most feasible alternative to meet their growing
capacity needs.
10
11
IV. HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE AND
FUEL PRICE DIFFERENTIAL OF THE UNITS
12
13
14
Q.
TO SWEPCO'S LOAD OF THE TWO UNITS.
15
16
PLEASE DESCRIBE THE ENERGY OUTPUT AND ENERGY CONTRIBUTION
A.
The combined annual output of SWEPCO's share of the two units in recent years has
17
been approximately 6,000 GWh. As can be seen in EXHIBIT ANH-4S, the energy
18
output of SWEPCO's share of the two base-load units has supplied approximately
19
35 percent of SWEPCO's retail load obligation in recent years.
20
significant part of SWEPCO's energy requirements with low-cost base-load
21
generation from Pirkey and Dolet Hills has enabled SWEPCO to avoid higher cost
22
gas-fired generation or purchased power and serve its customers with rates that are
23
among the lowest in the region.
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Meeting such a
EXHIBIT ANH-5S provides a comparison of
10
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1
company residential rates, in cents per kWh, for SWEPCO and other utility
2
companies in the region.
3
Q.
HOW DOES THE AVERAGE FUEL COST OF THE TWO LIGNITE UNITS
4
COMPARE RELATIVE TO THE AVERAGE FUEL COST OF SWEPCO'S
5
NATURAL GAS FIRED UNITS?
6
A.
EXHIBIT ANH-6S shows the annual average fuel cost of the two lignite-fired units as
7
well as the annual average fuel cost of SWEPCO's Knox Lee and Wilkes plants,
8
which include SWEPCO's largest, newest, and most often dispatched natural gas
9
units. The exhibit shows that from the outset of their operations, Pirkey and Dolet
10
Hills have benefited from low cost lignite, and in most recent years, the average
11
lignite fuel cost has been approximately one-third to one-fourth of the average cost of
12
fuel at the Knox Lee and Wilkes. The ownership of the two lignite-fired units has
13
allowed SWEPCO to serve the energy requirements of its customers at a very low
14
cost as compared to supplying the energy from natural gas units, resulting in
15
significant fuel cost savings.
16
SWEPCO's fuel mix has enabled the Company to stabilize its system fuel costs,
17
because, as shown in EXHIBIT ANH-6S, lignite costs have exhibited little volatility
18
in comparison to natural gas prices. The stability and lignite fuel prices relative to
19
natural gas prices allows SWEPCO to provide customers with more certainty of
20
future energy costs.
21
substantially reduces reliability concerns relating to feedstock.
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In addition, the inclusion of Pirkey and Dolet Hills in
Also, having the fuel source mined adjacent to the plants
11
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V. HISTORICAL FUEL COST SAVINGS FROM THE UNITS
1
2
Q.
WHAT TOPICS DO YOU COVER IN THIS SECTION OF YOUR TESTIMONY?
3
A.
In this section of my testimony, I further demonstrate the benefits to customers gained
4
from the availability of Pirkey and Dolet Hills as base-load resources since their
5
construction. This testimony demonstrates that customers have received significant
6
benefits from the construction and operation of Pirkey and Dolet Hills. These figures
7
clearly demonstrate' that the two units have been used and useful from their inception.
8
Q.
FROM THE FUEL COST SAVINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PIRKEY AND
9
DOLET HILLS UNITS.
10
11
PLEASE DESCRIBE HOW SWEPCO'S CUSTOMERS HAVE BENEFITED
A.
One way in which SWEPCO's customers have benefited from SWEPCO's ownership
12
of Pirkey and Dolet Hills is, historically, the cost per MWh of energy generated from
13
the two units has been significantly lower than the average cost per MWh of
14
comparable volumes of energy that would have been generated from natural gas fired
15
resources.
16
ongoing benefits at a lower cost than is provided by inclusion of Pirkey and Dolet
17
Hills in rates at their current depreciated cost.
18
Q.
PLEASE DESCRIBE THE METHODOLOGY FOR COMPUTATION OF FUEL
COST SAVINGS FROM PIRKEY AND DOLET HILLS.
19
20
Moreover, it is not reasonably possible to continue to achieve these
A.
In order to determine the annual fuel cost savings, the annual MWh output and fuel
21
cost of SWEPCO's share of Pirkey and Dolet Hills is recorded as a base line. The
22
annual fuel cost savings from these two units is computed in two steps.
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First, the
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1
annual fuel cost of generating a comparable volume of energy from the most efficient
2
natural gas units available to be constructed is determined. Second, the annual fuel
3
cost savings is calculated by subtracting the actual annual fuel cost of Pirkey and
4
Dolet Hills from the gas generation fuel cost calculated in the first step.
5
Q.
GAS UNIT COMPUTED?
6
7
HOW IS THE YEARLY AVERAGE FUEL COST OF THE PROXY NATURAL
A.
The average annual fuel cost, in $/MMBTU, of natural gas fired generation is
8
assumed to be the actual annual average fuel cost of SWEPCO's two largest natural
9
gas combined cycle plants, Knox Lee and Wilkes. The natural gas fuel cost of other
10
SWEPCO peaking units that are run for reliability reasons, for example Arsenal Hill,
11
are excluded.
12
estimate of fuel burnt at a relatively higher capacity factor natural gas resource and
13
therefore it is reasonable to exclude the peaking units that are primarily run for
14
reliability reasons, such as voltage support.
15
then multiplied by the heat rate of a proxy natural gas fired unit, in Btu/kWh, to
16
determine the annual average energy cost of gas fired generation, in $/MWh, that
17
would have been incurred had Pirkey and Dolet Hills not been constructed.
The fuel cost of Knox Lee and Wilkes is intended to serve as an
The annual fuel cost in $/MMBTU is
18
Q.
WHAT IS THE HEAT RATE OF THE PROXY NATURAL GAS FIRED UNIT?
19
A.
The heat rate used to convert the fuel cost in $/MMBTU to an energy cost in $/MWh
20
is the heat rate of the most efficient gas-fired unit available to be constructed in a
21
given period. From the commercial operation date of the Pirkey and Dolet Hills units
22
through the year 1999, a heat rate of 8,700 Btu/kWh of the most efficient combined
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1
cycle natural gas unit was used. For the years 2000 through 2008, a heat rate of 7,000
2
Btu/kWh, also the heat rate of the most efficient natural gas fired combined cycle unit
3
available, was used.
4
PLEASE PROVIDE A SAMPLE CALCULATION OF HOW THE FUEL COST
Q.
SAVINGS WAS CALCULATED FOR A GIVEN YEAR.
5
6
The table below shows the annual fuel cost savings for the year 2008, which was
A.
calculated to be $246,136,000.
7
Table 1- Fuel Cost Savings from SWEPCO's Share of Pirkey and Dolet Hills for the Year 2008
Annual Generation (MWh)
Total
Pirkey
Dolet
8
Fuel Cost
Natural Gas
Lignite
Fuel Cost Cost Fuel Cos Fuel Cost Heat Rate Cost Fuel Cost Savings
($000 ' s)
$/MMBTu $/MWh ($000's) $/MMBTu Btu/kWh $/MWh ($000's)
F 4,035,6961 1,994,405 1 6,030,101
2.38
25.69
154,920
9.50
7,000
66.51
401,056
246,136
9
The annual 2008 fuel cost savings computed above is the difference between the fuel
10
cost that SWEPCO would have incurred had 6,030 GWh of energy been generated
11
from a combined cycle plant ($401.1 million) and the actual fuel cost that SWEPCO
12
incurred for generating the same amount of energy from Pirkey and Dolet Hills
13
($154.9 million).
14
Q.
HAD THE 6,030 GWh OF ENERGY THAT WAS PRODUCED FROM SWEPCO'S
15
SHARE OF PIRKEY AND DOLET HILLS IN 2008 BEEN GENERATED FROM A
16
COMBINED CYCLE NATURAL GAS UNIT, WHAT WOULD HAVE BEEN THE
17
INCREASE IN FUEL COSTS FOR SWEPCO IN CENTS/KWh?
18
A.
Given that SWEPCO's total load consumption in 2008 was approximately 17.2 GWh,
19
the fuel cost savings from Pirkey and Dolet Hills in 2008 translates into a company-
20
wide savings of 1.4 cents/kWh.
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1
Q.
WHAT IS THE CUMULATIVE FUEL COST SAVINGS FROM OPERATION OF
2
THE PIRKEY AND DOLET HILLS UNITS SINCE START OF COMMERCIAL
3
OPERATION?
4
A.
Based on the described methodology, the cumulative fuel cost savings associated with
5
SWEPCO's share of the Pirkey and Dolet Hills is calculated to be $1.8 Billion.
6
EXHIBIT ANH-7S shows the cumulative fuel cost savings for each of the two units
7
based on the methodology described above since start of commercial operation. In
8
addition, the chart also provides the average annual fuel savings for both units.
9
Q.
COMPARE AGAINST THE CONSTRUCTION COSTS OF THE UNITS?
10
11
HOW DO THE CUMULATIVE FUEL COST SAVINGS OF THE TWO PLANTS
A.
The original cost of SWEPCO's share of the two units was $648 million, as provided
12
in the testimony of Company witness Paul Franklin. The fuel cost savings generated
13
from the two plants has therefore exceeded the construction costs by more than a
14
factor of two. In addition, even after taking into consideration the lower construction
15
costs of a natural gas unit, the fuel cost savings of $1.8 Billion would still offset the
16
higher cost of building Pirkey and Dolet Hills. For example, with a very conservative
17
construction cost estimate of $230/kW for a combined cycle natural gas plant in 1985
18
and the average cost of Pirkey and Dolet Hills of $770/kW, the calculated fuel cost
19
savings of $1.8 Billion achieved by Pirkey and Dolet Hills would considerably exceed
20
the estimated $455 million in capital cost spending that would have been avoided had
21
natural gas fired units been built instead of the two lignite units ($770/kW average
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1
cost of Pirkey and Dolet Hills less $230/kW for gas units, with the result multiplied
2
by the combined capacity of 842 MW for SWEPCO's share of both lignite units).
3
Q.
FROM OPERATION OF THE TWO PLANTS IN THE FUTURE?
4
5
WILL SWEPCO CUSTOMERS CONTINUE TO RECEIVE FUEL COST SAVINGS
A.
Yes, they will. Although natural gas forward prices have- declined recently, future
6
projections of natural gas prices show the prices to be well above the lignite fuel
7
costs. Even with the heat rate advantage of newer combined cycle units compared to
8
the heat rates of Pirkey and Dolet Hills, these two units will continue to provide low
9
cost base-load energy for a significant portion of SWEPCO's load obligation. The
10
magnitude of the projected savings will be addressed in the next section of my
11
testimony.
12
VI. EXPECTED FUTURE SAVINGS FROM PIRKEY AND DOLET HILLS
13
14
Q.
HAS SWEPCO QUANTIFIED THE BENEFITS THAT WOULD BE REALIZED
15
FROM CONTINUED OPERATION OF THE PIRKEY AND DOLET HILLS
16
PLANTS?
17
A.
Yes.
A study was performed under my supervision using the Strategist resource
18
planning tool to determine the replacement costs of the Pirkey and Dolet Hills plants
19
for the years 2009-2030.
20
would result in energy cost savings of $1.6 Billion over this period related to fuel and
21
off-system purchases and sales.
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The study shows that continued operation of the plants
16
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I
Q.
MORE DETAIL.
2
3
PLEASE DESCRIBE THE STRATEGIST RESOURCE PLANNING TOOL IN
A.
The Strategist optimization model, a proprietary software model owned by Ventyx
4
which SWEPCO uses through a licensing agreement, serves as the underpinning from
5
which anticipated future SWEPCO capacity requirements - are examined and,
6
ultimately, recommendations for capacity additions are made.
7
function, Strategist determines the regulatory least-cost resource mix for the system
8
being assessed.
9
technologies and prescribed sets of constraints and assumptions.
10
Q.
The solution is bounded by a user-defined set of resource
PLEASE DESCRIBE THE METHODOLOGY THAT WAS USED IN THE
STRATEGIST STUDY TO QUANTIFY THE SAVINGS.
11
12
As an objective
A.
Two cases of the Strategist program were run. In the first case, or base case -scenario,
13
the assumption was made that Pirkey and Dolet Hills would continue to be in
14
operation and be dispatched to meet SWEPCO's load obligation. Projected capital
15
expenditures in the plants and operations and maintenance (O&M) costs were
16
included in the base scenario, as well as emissions costs associated with the two
17
plants. A second study case, or change case scenario, was constructed and run to
18
model SWEPCO's resource costs in the absence of Pirkey and Dolet Hills. Both
19
units, and their associated future capital, O&M, and emissions costs, were removed in
20
the change case. The Strategist program was then allowed to "build" resources that
21
would replace the capacity and energy needs of SWEPCO in the absence of its two
22
lignite units.
The total SWEPCO system cost, including any construction and
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I
carrying costs of new units in the change case less the system cost in the base case
2
provided the total system savings from continued operation of the Pirkey and Dolet
3
Hills plants.
4
Q.
ENERGY RELATED SAVINGS?
5
6
DO THE SAVINGS CALCULATED INCLUDE BOTH CAPACITY AND
A.
Yes. The energy cost savings alone over the study period based on current forecasting
When the added costs of constructing new gas-fired
7
assumptions is $1.6 Billion.
8
generating capacity to replace Pirkey and Dolet Hills as well as the cost of emissions
9
are taken into consideration, the total cost savings of continuing the operation of
Pirkey and Dolet Hills over the study period is estimated to be $1.2 Billion.
10
11
Q.
CAPACITY AND ENERGY SAVINGS.
12
13
PLEASE PROVIDE THE RESULTS OF THE ANALYSIS SHOWING THE
A.
In Highly Sensitive EXHIBIT ANH-8S, the yearly energy cost savings and the total
14
savings for SWEPCO, including capital and carrying costs for new units, are
15
provided. The Fuel and Transactions savings in the Exhibit ( Column C) capture the
16
energy related savings shown for each year and represent the change case energy costs
17
less the base case energy costs. Similarly, Column L in the Exhibit reflects the
18
combined savings from continued operation of Pirkey and Dolet Hills and includes all
19
cost categories modeled in Strategist.
20
21
Q.
WHAT IS THE HEAT RATE AND AVERAGE NATURAL GAS PRICE THAT
WAS USED IN THE ANALYSIS?
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1
A.
The heat rate used in the change case for the combustion turbine and combined cycle
These
2
natural gas plants was 10,400 Btu/kWh and 6,900 Btu/kWh respectively.
3
reflect the heat rates of the most efficient units that are available for construction.
4
The confidential and highly sensitive EXHIBIT ANH-9S shows the annual Henry
5
Hub natural gas price forecasts used in the analysis. The average Henry Hub gas price
6
forecast used in the study period is $8.31/MMBTU.
7
Q.
CONSIDERATION IN THE STUDIES?
8
9
ARE ALL SWEPCO UNITS UNDER CONSTRUCTION TAKEN INTO
A.
Yes. All SWEPCO units recently completed (Mattison) and under construction (Stall
10
and Turk plants) are included in the base case and change case. Strategist determines
11
what type of natural gas units to "construct" for SWEPCO's capacity needs if Pirkey
12
and Dolet Hills are unavailable and also determines when such gas units should be
13
"constructed".
14
Q.
TO REPLACE PIRKEY AND DOLET?
15
16
WHAT TYPE OF UNITS DID THE STRATEGIST PROGRAM "CONSTRUCT"
A.
As shown in Highly Sensitive EXHIBIT ANH-10S, six Combustion Turbines units
17
were initially "built" in the years 2010 and one in the year 2019. Combined Cycle
18
units were added by the program in the years 2021 and 2030 to provide replacement
19
capacity for Pirkey and Dolet Hills.
20
because in the change case initial years, SWEPCO is considered to only need peaking
21
resources whereas in the latter years, Strategist recognizes the need for base-load
22
resources.
PUC DOCKET NO. 37364
SOAH DOCKET NO. 473-10-0035
19
These "new build" results appear reasonable
SUPPLEMENTAL DIRECT TESTIMONY
A. NAIM HAKIMI
165
I
Q.
ARE THE PROJECTED FUTURE ENERGY RELATED SAVINGS
2
COMPARABLE TO FUEL SAVINGS REALIZED BY OPERATION OF THE
3
TWO UNITS SINCE THE BEGINNING OF COMMERCIAL OPERATION?
4
A.
Yes. The historical savings, as described earlier in my testimony, for the period since
5
commercial operation began, was estimated to be $1.8 billion. Projected fuel savings
6
of $1.6 billion, using current forecast data, over the next 22 years is consistent with
7
SWEPCO's past experience and the savings realized from the two plants.
8
Q.
HILLS AFFECT THE STRATEGIST RESULTS?
9
10
HOW DOES THE DEPRECIATED CAPITAL COST OF PIRKEY AND DOLET
A.
Since the Strategist program does not model the return and depreciation of existing
11
assets, the amount for which SWEPCO would seek recovery for the Pirkey and Dolet
12
Hills net book value over the next 22 years was computed separately. The net present
13
value of this amount is estimated to be $268.97 million. Even with this added base
14
case cost in the analysis, the results of the study still shows that customers would
15
continue to be served with significantly lower cost resources from the Pirkey and
16
Dolet Hills plant as compared to the alternative of removing these assets from rate
17
base and replacing them with newly constructed natural gas fired Combustion Turbine
18
and Combined Cycle units.
PUC DOCKET NO. 37364
SOAH DOCKET NO. 473-10-0035
20
SUPPLEMENTAL DIRECT TESTIMONY
A. NAIM HAKIMI
166
VII. CONCLUSION
I
2
Q.
PLEASE SUMMARIZE YOUR TESTIMONY.
3
A.
My testimony describes the combination of factors existing at the time of the decision
4
to construct Pirkey and Dolet Hills that made the decision to build lignite fired
5
generating resources prudent and reasonable.
6
construction and operation of Pirkey and Dolet Hills has provided very significant
7
benefits to SWEPCO's Texas retail customers, and that these benefits could not be
8
obtained at a lower cost than the current capital cost that SWEPCO seeks to include in
9
rate base. These benefits take the form of significant fuel cost savings SWEPCO's
10
customers have received and will continue to receive from operation of the Pirkey and
11
Dolet Hills lignite-fueled power plants, even taking into account an estimate of the
12
additional costs that would be incurred by the customers if SWEPCO were to replace
13
the capacity and energy of these two units with alternative sources of capacity and
14
energy over the remaining expected life of the units.
15
fuel cost savings from operation of these two low-cost base-load units since their in-
16
service dates have been approximately $1.8 Billion, or over two times the
17
construction costs of the units.
18
anticipates fuel cost savings from continued operation of the two units in the future
19
and estimates these savings to be $1.6 Billion over the next 22 years.
I further demonstrate that the
Furthermore, my testimony shows that SWEPCO
20
Q.
DOES THIS CONCLUDE YOUR TESTIMONY?
21
A.
Yes, it does.
PUC DOCKET NO. 37364
SOAH DOCKET NO. 473-10-0035
My testimony shows that the
21
SUPPLEMENTAL DIRECT TESTIMONY
A. NAIM HAKIMI
167
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