Econ Dept, UMR Presents Scarcity, Efficiency, and Growth Starring The 3 Basic Questions, and The Production Possibilities Model Featuring The Invisible Hand Argument for coping with scarcity Three Basic Questions Production Possibilities Model Marginal Opportunity Cost Efficiency Part II Production Possibilities Model Marginal Opportunity Cost Efficiency Production Possibilities Model Useful to show implications of scarcity Assumptions of the model There are only 2 things we want Resources and technology are held constant The trade-off is represented by Increasing marginal cost, or Constant marginal cost Concepts Illustrated by the PP Model What? (where we choose to produce) How? (we want to choose a point on the frontier) Marginal Opportunity Cost Constant (The PPF is linear) Increasing (The PPF is concave) Scarcity Productive Efficiency Growth Production Possibilities Table Production Possibilities Table - a table that shows all combinations of goods and services that can be produced given the resources of society and the existing state of technology For simplicity we assume all we want are two things: House and All Other Goods (AOG) Production Possibilities Table: A Few Possible Combinations AOG/t Houses/t 112 0 98 7 80 13 Production Possibilities Table (Complete) All Other Goods/t Housing/t 112 0 98 7 80 13 60 18 40 22 22 25 8 0 27 28 Production Possibilities Frontier (Table) This table let’s us know how much our economy can produce. Let’s show these possibilities graphically. To do this we measure the quantity of each good on the x and y axes. Production Possibilities (per month) If all resources are used to make AOG we can produce 112 AOG in one month and implicitly no Houses. Let’s say we figure that it’s probably a good idea to make some Houses. What resources do we shift from AOG to House production? To anticipate: shift resources such that the opportunity cost of the houses is as low as possible Production Possibilities Frontier AOG/t 120 Note the time symbols, t 90 60 30 0 7 14 21 28 Housing/t Production Possibilities Frontier AOG/t 120 This is the first row in the table - where there are no houses and 112 units of AOG 90 60 30 0 7 14 21 28 Housing/t Production Possibilities Frontier AOG/t 120 90 This is the second row in the table - where there are 7 houses and 98 units of AOG produced 60 30 0 7 14 21 28 Housing/t Production Possibilities Frontier AOG/t These are all of the production possibilities from our table 120 90 60 30 0 7 14 21 28 Housing/t Production Possibilities Frontier AOG/t When we connect the points we have the “Production Possibilities Frontier” 120 90 Note the general “concave” or “bowed out” shape 60 30 0 7 14 21 28 Housing/t Opportunity Cost Opportunity Cost - the benefits foregone from the next best alternative when a choice is made “There is no such thing as a free lunch.” All costs are benefits, benefits foregone Thus all costs are subjective, not objective And our measurement is not then of costs, but proxies, i.e., stands ins, for cost Opportunity Cost in Our Economy When we make 7 houses, we are using resources Those resources could have been used to make something else, specifically, they could have made 14 units of AOG Thus the opportunity cost of making the first 7 houses are the benefits given up by not having 14 AOGs Per Unit Opportunity Cost If the opportunity cost of making 7 houses is 14 AOGs, then the average opportunity cost of making 1 house must be 2 AOGs (= 14/7) Most of the time when we are thinking about opportunity cost, it is easier to think of it in “per unit” terms. In other words, ask yourself “what is the opportunity cost of doing one more thing, another house, another hour of study, etc?” How to Find Per Unit Opportunity Cost A simple way to find the per unit opportunity cost is to use the following equation: Opportunity Cost of a Good or Service Produced = Units of Good or Service Forgone Units of a Good or Serve Produced Opportunity Cost and the PPF AOG/t 120 Amount of AOG/t Given Up 90 60 Amount of Houses/t Gained 30 7 0 14 21 28 Houses/t Opportunity Cost and the PPF AOG/t 120 90 Amount of AOG/t Given Up 60 Amount of Houses/t Gained 30 0 7 14 21 28 Houses/t Opportunity Cost and the PPF We know that the per unit opportunity cost of Houses is AOG given up divided by Houses gained Graphically, that is the same thing as the vertical change divided by the horizontal change (if we ignore the negative sign). Slope and Marginal Cost When the PPF is concave throughout you measure the slope at a point by drawing a tangent at that point The slope of that tangent is the opportunity cost in the limit (economists call it Marginal Cost of the good on the x or, horizontal axis) The inverse of that slope is the Marginal Cost of the good on the y, or vertical, axis Slope, Tangent and MC At point A, we have 72 AOG and 17 Houses per month. The marginal cost of a house at A is the slope of the tangent at A, 4 units of AOG. The MC of an AOG is the A inverse of the slope of the tangent at A, 1/4 house. AOG/t 120 90 72 60 MCHA = rise/run = 72/18 =4 30 MCAOGA = run/rise = = 18/72 = 1/4 rise 0 7 14 17 21 28 run 35 Houses/t Increasing Opportunity Cost Opportunity Cost increases because we picked resources that were best at making Houses to make Houses first. We kept choosing the best carpenters and resources that are best suited for house production. As we make more houses the resources left become less apt at making houses. So, per unit cost of houses increase. The Realism of Increasing Opportunity Cost Different resources in our economy are better suited for making different things. Some people are better carpenters, some are better at sales, and some are better at administration. When starting to produce something we are going to want to make it as cheaply as possible. In other words giving up as little as possible of other things. The first houses have the lowest opportunity cost, because we select the best carpenters from our set of resources. Increasing Marginal Opportunity Cost Note that generally as we make more and more of a good, the opportunity cost of making an additional unit increases. This is called “Increasing Marginal Opportunity Cost.” Increasing MC implies the PPF is concave, and concavity of the PPF implies increasing MC Slope, Tangent and MC AOG/t 120 B A Notice the concavity of the PPF implies increasing marginal cost of production. As we increase the production of houses, the MC of houses increases. MCHC > MCHA > MCHB 90 Also, 72 60 MCAOGC < MCAOGA < MCAOGB C 30 0 7 14 17 21 28 35 Houses/t Constant Opportunity Cost If all resources are equally skilled at making AOG and Houses, then there are Constant Opportunity Costs This means that the slope of the PPF is constant that is, the PPF is linear. Constant Opportunity Cost AOG/t 120 The opportunity cost of making a house is 6 AOGs (=120/20). This is true regardless of what combination of goods is produced. 90 60 30 0 7 14 20 21 28 Houses/t A Math Representation of the PP Model--Linear PPF Assume two goods, Y and X, and two resources, L and K, technology is fixed, and opportunity cost is constant Y = f(X, L, K, technology) Y = a - bX + cL + dK where a….d are parameters to be estimated and marginal opportunity cost is assumed to be constant, i.e., the PPF is linear The Production Function Y = a - bX + cL + dK “a” summarizes all factors that contribute to Y other than X, L, and K “c” and “d” are the estimates that tell us how much Y would increase if L or K were to increase by one unit, c.p. since L and K are given we may rewrite as Y = a’ - b’X where a’ = a + cL + dK MC of X is given by b’ and the MC of Y by 1/b’ Y = a’ - b’X = 100 - 4X Y/t Linear PPF, Constant MC 100 MCX = 4Y; 25 X/t MCY = (1/4)*X A Math Representation of the PP Model--Concave PPF Assume two goods, Y and X, and two resources, L and K, technology is fixed, and opportunity cost increases with production Y = f(X, L, K, technology) Y = a - bXe + cL + dK where a….d and e are parameters to be estimated and marginal opportunity cost is assumed to be increasing, i.e., the PPF is concave The Production Function Y = a - bXe + cL + dK “a” summarizes all factors that contribute to Y other than X, L, and K “c” and “d” are the estimates that tell us how much Y would increase if L or K were to increase by one unit, c.p. since L and K are given we may rewrite as Y = a’ - b’Xe where a’ = a + cL + dK MC of X is given by eb’X(e-1) and the MC of Y by 1/eb’X(e-1) e Y = a’ - b’X Y/t 2 = 100 - 4X Concave PPF, Increasing MC 100 MCX = 10X; MCY = (1/10)*X A 50 ~3.5 At point A, MCX = slope at A = ~35.4Y, and MCY = inverse of the slope at A = ~0.03X 5 X/t A Review, Scarcity and the PP Model Since we have scarce resources, we are limited in what we can produce. We cannot make 60 AOG and 28 Houses. AOG/t 120 90 60 30 0 7 14 21 28 Houses/t A Review, “What”, “How” and the PP Model AOG/t Somewhere on the frontier allocating resources to their best (efficient) 120 90 60 30 0 7 14 21 28 Houses/t Productive Efficiency and the PP Model To produce efficiently, our economy must not be able to produce more of one good without producing less of another. In other words, we must be on the PPF. If we are inside of the PPF, we could produce more of one good without producing less of another. Consider the 3 points on the following graph: Productive Efficiency AOG/t Point A cannot be efficient since we can increase production of Houses from 7 to 18 while still producing 60 AOG 120 90 60 A B C 30 0 7 14 21 28 Houses/t Points on and off the PPF All points, such as B, are efficient since if we want to increase production of either good we must decrease our production of the other good All points, such as A, are inefficient since we can have more of one good without giving up any of the other All points, such as C, are unattainable with our present technology, resources, institutions, traditions and customs. Being on the PPF is not inevitable. We will be in the interior if we have Unemployment - The condition in which a resource is unable to find a use to produce things we want Underemployment - The condition in which some units of resources are not employed in their most productive, i.e., valued, uses Shifting the PPF Outward Resources available to the nation increase There is an improvement in the technology with which the nation employs its resources Both are achieved if the county chooses to produce more capital, both physical and human capital, and less consumer goods Technology is introduced through newer capital and a better educated labor force Changes in institutions, traditions/customs, and economic policy Growth AOG/t 120 New PPF Increased immigration, technological advance, change in social mores about the role of women, etc. 90 60 Old PPF 30 0 7 14 21 28 Houses/t Technological change doesn’t have to be neutral: Here it affects just Housing AOG/t 120 New PPF 90 60 30 0 7 14 21 28 Houses/t Growth and Changing Marginal Cost Note that the slope of the PPF may change at any given level of House production - implying the opportunity cost changed This is because it now takes less resources to make a house, which means we are giving up less AOG each time we make a house The End In chapter 3, you will begin to see how the forces of Supply and Demand interact to give answers to our three basic questions: How, What, and For Whom
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