GeoJournal 52: 213–221, 2001. © 2001 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands. 213 Using GIS for analysis of urban systems Guoqing Du Institute of Geoscience, University of Tsukuba, Tennodai 1-1-1, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan (E-mail: [email protected]) Received 31 March 2001; accepted 5 October 2001 Key words: cartographic overlay, China, nodal structure, open policy, urban system Abstract It is recognized that the spatial organization of urban system can be abstracted as three main components: a set of points, which describes the structural characteristics such as social and economic properties of individual city; a set of lines, which indicates the patterns of interaction among the cities; a set of spheres, which indicates how and to which extent each city affects the area around it. Even if such substance of urban system coincides with the main purpose of GIS for spatial or geometric data types such as point, line and region, little attention has been given to this point. By an evidence analysis of China, the application of potential analytical capabilities of GIS for urban system is attempted in this study. We find GIS acts as an efficient tool not only for the spatial structure analysis of urban system, which including potential distribution of cities, extraction of principal linkages among cities, and delimitation of subsystems; but also for the verification of socio-economic attributes and dynamics of urban system. Introduction A large number of studies on urban systems have been carried out since the late 1960s. With the rapid development and changes of urbanization, the studies of urban systems are also becoming more and more complicated. First of all, the number of cities increased and the urban scales have been enlarged with a rapid speed, especially in developing countries. For example, China added more than 200 new cities (shi) and nearly 10,000 towns (zhen) in the 1980s (People’s Daily, 1989). The number of cities increased from 244 in 1982 to 640 in 1995. Furthermore, we found a remarkable increase in urban size. In 1953, the number of cities with a population exceeding 100,000 was 102, this number increased to 222 in 1982, doubling in 29 years. Subsequently, an immediate sharp increase by the same indicator to 466 was seen in 1991, doubling once more in only 9 years (Du, 1997). Secondly, as a result of the development of convenient method of communications and transportation, the interactions and relationships among cities became more complicated. Suppose if we want to analyze a system of 640 cities, we have to take 640 × 640 linkages into account. The study of urban systems has enlarged its area to include the international or even global urban systems recently, and number of example cities increased consequently. With such a background, searching an efficient approach of GIS to solve such problems is a matter of course. In this paper, we will try to investigate the useful tools of GIS for the analysis of urban systems. Components and process of GIS for urban system analysis In its narrowest and most traditional sense, the urban system refers to the set of cities in a certain region. In other words, the system is simply the aggregate of cities; no attempt has been made to identify relationships among them. But when the concept is developed more fully, the urban system account for the observed relationships among cities, and provide a model for the analysis of spatial variations of growth and changes in the system. Based on the urban nodes, the urban system, in this broader sense, also includes the relationships among nodes particularly (Simmons, 1978). We can say looking each city as a point and a relationship between each pair of cities as a linkage line is the fundamental thought of urban system. Therefore, point and line can be extracted as the basic spatial elements of urban system. Figure 1 shows the components and process when we use GIS for urban system analysis. The process begins with data input of a set of attributes in order to describe the structural characteristics such as size, socio-economic properties of each city. Such characteristics are all represented with points in GIS. The concept of the urban system has a number of attractions, but perhaps its major one is that it links together all studies that examine the relationship between the spatial components (Bourne and Simmons, 1978). In the case of linkages, we have two ways to identify these lines. One is to input the O-D data of realistic linkages to indicate the patterns of interaction among cities in terms of movements of people, data, goods, or money etc; another is to identify the linkages by calculating the available point data of 214 Figure 1. Components and process of GIS for urban system analyisis. characteristics of each city. For the first method, we can use the data of realistic interaction directly, or we can also take the realistic data as direct flows, calculate the indirect flows by some models, and then take the direct and indirect flows into account together. Using telephone calls, Nystuen and Dacey (1961) gave us a good example of how to use the indirect linkages and flows as well as direct. The second method will be useful if realistic linkages data are not available. The model used in this process includes the Spatial Interaction Model, among which the Gravity Model is the most widely used model in geography for the calculation of interaction. The reasons for the strong and continuing interests of Gravity Model are easy to understand and stem from both theoretical and practical considerations (Haynes and Fotheringham, 1984). Studies on various kinds of aggregate flows of human interaction, such as migration, traveling, communication, commodity shipping, traffic, and household relocation, almost invariably rely upon the Gravity Model (Hua and Porell, 1979). While Camagni and Salone (1993) note that in the more advanced countries, urban hierarchies have become less useful as an analytical device due to changes in communication and transport networks, they also accept that the derivation of traditional hierarchies and analyses with elements of Gravity Model remain “the most elegant, abstract but consistent representation of the hierarchy of urban centers, and the model that better interprets the spatial behavior of many economic sectors” (Huff and Lutz, 1995). But, regardless of which method being used, we have to create lines representing linkages or interactions among cities. Some GIS software systems, both raster and vector, have the capability to develop Gravity Model between points. Many GIS software possess functions to create lines between two points by the coordinates of these two points. Here the program we will use for this purpose in our following example is a quotation of ARC/INFO program from Murayama and Ono (1993). When we get the data of cities and linkages prepared, we can use a model to reveal the spatial structure and mechanism of urban system. An extensively used model for this process is Graph Theory. Based on the simple idea of points interconnected by lines, Graph Theory combines these basic ingredients into a rich assortment of forms and endows these forms with flexible properties, thus making the subject a useful tool for studying many kinds of systems (Busacker and Saaty, 1965). In short, GIS is a useful but incomplete set of spatial analytical tools. In many cases of urban system analysis, we have to combine GIS tools with statistical analysis software, input/output modeling packages designed to model systems throughputs, mathematical modeling tools providing enhanced mathematical computations, geostatistical packages designed for advanced spatial analysis or subsurface modeling, or even advanced macro language packages (called GIS applications development), designed to simplify the GIS tool kit for a particular set of tasks (DeMers, 1997). Delimitation of nodal structure of urban system Here we will take an example of the urban system of China to illustrate how to use the GIS tools to analyze urban systems. In the 1980s and 1990s, a series of new policies have been enforced in China. All of these policies have con- 215 tributed to China’s emergence as the most rapidly growing economy in the world and have dramatically changed its economic structure and pattern of regional development. Correspondingly, significant changes also have taken place within the urban system of China. With such a background, attention is drawn to the mechanism of development of the national urban system. Although a large number of studies have been carried out in the field of urban systems in China, some questions are still left unsolved. First of all, little is known what the nodal structure of national urban system is and how the nodal structure evolved in China. Goncalves and Ulysséa-Neto, 1993) and it’s advanced adaptation Competing Opportunities Model (Tomazinis, 1962; Murayama, 1992). In other words, we think the spatial interaction distribution from a certain origin city is governed by the attractions exerted by the existing opportunities in each particular destination. Therefore, we define the total probability of the interaction from city i to city j as n pj (i = j, k ≥ j ) (2) Pij = k k=j pl From points to lines But we find that although the Gravity Model presents the shortcoming of disregarding the effects of the intervening opportunities, the Intervening Opportunities Model suffers from omission of the nonlinear effects of competing accessibilities of the alternative destinations. An extreme example is that even each destination city changes its location if only it keeps the same distance from the origin city, the total probability will be constant. Here I use an adaptation developed by Fotheringham (1983) to solve this problem of concentric circles, and emphasize the accessibility relation as the rate of the accessibility of origin city to that of destination city. I use the well-known population potential as the measure of accessibility. Thus the accessibility relation Aij can be defined as n n pm pm Aij = (3) dmi dmj m=1 m=1 The most difficult point in the analysis of China’s urban system is the lack of data. There are only few data on cities published in China, let alone the national O-D data between cities. It is just the good case that we can use a model to simulate the spatial structure with available data by GIS. Data for statistical analysis are collected from the Urban Statistical Yearbook of China (State Statistical Bureau, 1986, 1996). The area of study encompasses 30 provincial-level administrative units. I selected all the cities with nonagricultural population over 100,000 as sample cities. Therefore, there are 246 sample cities in 1985 and 488 in 1995. As Figure 1 shows, our analysis begins with the data input for all the sample cities. Many kinds of O-D data have been used to investigate the modal structure of urban systems. But the distribution and composition are quite different with each kind of data. With a comprehensive result of urban aggregation, I use nonagricultural population as attribute of cities in this research. The nonagricultural population is not only an important criterion for city designation, but also a reliable indicator of urban development because of the administrative/statistical changes (Cui, 1992; Hamer, 1990; Hsu, 1994). Since the O-D data of linkages is absent, our next work is to build a model to estimation the interactions among cities (Du, 2000). The Gravity Model, which is the most widely used model in geography for the calculation of interaction, will be modified and employed in this research as equation (1) shows. Tij = Vi Pij Aij (i = j, Tii = 0, i = 1, 2, · · · , n, (1) j = 1, 2, · · · , n) where Tij is the interaction between city i and j , Vi is the scale of origin city i, Pij is the total probability of the interaction from city i to j , Aij represents the accessibility relation of city i and j , n is the number of cities in the urban system. Put simply, the Vi in equation (1) can be replaced in this study by the nonagricultural population pi . From the standpoint of geographical study, the spatial distribution pattern of individual cities affects the interaction greatly. Furthermore, it is clear that the deterrence effect on interaction is not always constant. That is the meaning of the total probability of interaction Pij in our model. Useful ways to solve such spatial problems is the thought of intervening opportunities (Stouffer, 1940; Schneider, 1960; l=1 m=i m=j where pm is the nonagricultural population of city m, dmi is the direct distance from city m to i. With the fusion of urban scale, total probability and accessibility relation, our model can be written as: n n n pj pm pm Tij = pi · · (i = j, k ≥ j ) n d i d m mj m=1 m=1 k=j pl m=i m=j l=1 (4) By equation (4), we can estimate the interaction structure of “LINE” in Figure 1. And this is the process to calculate linkages among cities from attributes of cities. From points and lines to nodal structure In order to examine the interdependency of urban system, I emphasize both to and from interactions and define the linkage from city i to j as Lij , and Lij = Tij + Tj i (i = j, Lii = 0) (5) Further more, an indicator measuring the effect powers of individual cities within the urban system is defined as potential Gi . n Gi = Lij (i = j ) (6) j =1 Trying to prove the reliability of this model, we calculate the correlation coefficients between total interactions (calculated by proposed model) and the amount of freight traffic 216 Figure 2. Nodal structure of urban system of China. 217 Figure 3. Potential distribution and spatial structure of urban system of China. (statistic data). The value is 0.848 for 1985 and 0.857 for 1995. Both of the two coefficients have a high value and are significant at 1% level. This constitutes good evidence to show the reliability of our proposed model for the urban systems in China. In this research, the interaction data calculated with my proposed model are analyzed by method of Graph Theory. First, I extract the largest linkage of each city. Then rank the cities according to the potential of equation (6). Furthermore, connect the largest linkage from cities of lower potentials to cities of higher potentials. A city is not subordinate to any city whose potential is lower than it. Investigating the China’s urban system by the approach mentioned above, we obtained the results of nodal structure shown in Figure 2. In 1985, Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, Urumqi and other 10 cities are discriminated as nodal cities. 3 nodal cities (Harbin, Shenyang and Tianjin) are subor- dinate to Beijing, 2 nodal cities (Wuhan and Guangzhou) to Shanghai, and 5 nodal cities (Chengdu, Guiyang, Kunming, Xi’an and Lanzhou) to Chongqing. None of these 10 nodal cities is dominated by Urumqi. In 1995, Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing and other 13 cities are recognized as nodal cities. The nodal cities being subordinate to Beijing increased to 5 (Harbin, Changchun, Shenyang, Dalian and Zhengzhou), while that to Shanghai also increased to 3 (Wuhan, Guangzhou and Qingdao). The nodal cities that are subordinate to Chongqing remained at 5. The most significant characteristic of the spatial structure of the urban system of China is that the national urban system dispersed into 3 regional systems in both 1985 and 1995. Even in 1995, there is not any city powerful enough to integrate all of the regional subsystems into a complete system. In general, there is a lack of a fully integrated urban system at the national level. The socio-economic reasons 218 Figure 4. Distribution and changes in potential of nodal cities. for such spatial structure can be found in other studies on China’s urban systems (Murphey, 1974; Skinner, 1977; Pannell, 1984; Xu, 1986; Chen, 1987; Yan, 1995; Du, 2000). The most significant change is that Urumqi became one of the nodal cities of Chongqing. Create graph from map Using GIS, we can investigate the spatial structure of urban system with maps as mentioned above. But there is not any map that can tell us all the information we want. It means we have to create other expression method to get more information to reveal the mechanism of urban system. For example, in Figure 2 only the nodal structure of urban system is shown by the method of map. But as everybody knows, the attributes of cities also have relation with the nodal structure. Thus we hope to create a graph to express such relationship in detail. The modification from map to graph is also a modification from spatial expression to aspatial or half-spatial expression. Therefore, we can also say it is a process to combine the geographical characteristics (such as coordinates of x and y) and attributes of cities (for example, population, potential, income, . . . ) together to excavate their relationship. It is one useful way to show the hierarchical structure in the analysis of urban system, and GIS can provide us possibilities to finish this task with high accuracy and efficiency. To some degree we can say, an essential feature of spatial database systems is that they cover an extremely wide and diverse range of applications (Schneider, 1997). Figure 3 shows such a modification result with the addition of potential of each city. Here we use the city of Shanghai, which obtains the highest potential both in 1985 and 1995, as the datum of X-axis, distance from shanghai as the X-coordinate, and potential as the Y-coordinate. This Figure reveals that the national urban system of China can be discriminated into three systems: Beijing ur- ban system, Shanghai urban system and Chongqing urban system, and each urban system possesses its characteristics. Holding extremely higher potential, the terminal city stands on the position of prime center and dominates a large number of cities directly in Shanghai urban system. Between the terminal city Shanghai and the other nodal cities, there exist great gaps of potential. All the nodal cities are only subordinate to the terminal city Shanghai. In the case of Beijing urban system, the differences of potentials between the terminal city Beijing and the other nodal cities are not so great. There exist hierarchical structure and linkages among nodal cities. The linkages from the terminal city Beijing to the high-leveled nodal city, and then to the low-leveled nodal city build up a significant developing axis. In the Chongqing urban system, there exist a lot of nodal cities, but their potentials are all not so high. Furthermore, the differences of potential between the terminal city Chongqing and the other nodal cities are also not so great. But there exist a hierarchical structure among nodal cities. All the characteristics of urban systems mentioned above are the features that we cannot get from maps such as Figure 2. Therefore, the graph is a necessary tool for urban system analysis. From this example we can understand that GIS provides us more possibilities to combine different data and methods together to get new discoveries. In the analysis of urban system, even for the same points, there are always two kinds of data. One is the geometric (or commonly called spatial) data, including the X and Y coordinates; the other is the set of socio-economic attributes. Only by the analytical applications of GIS, these two kinds of data are preserved in the same database, from which we can get more opportunities to create new analytical methods. Cartographic overlay for urban system analysis One of the most powerful features of GIS is the ability to place the cartographic representation of thematic informa- 219 Figure 5. Changes in nodal structure and the distribution of open cities in China. tion of a selected theme over that of another. This process, commonly called overlay, is so intuitive that its application long preceded the advent of GIS. With the method of cartographic overlay, the spatial correspondence could be directly related to cause and effect. GIS can provide easily available map overlay procedures that may result in the development of new hypotheses, new theories, or even new laws about these pattern similarities (DeMers, 1997). It can also increase our ability to knowingly lie with maps well beyond what was possible before GIS could be used to compare spatial phenomena (Monmonier, 1991). The evolution of the urban system in fact is a result of the socio-economic development. Urban systems change through time in a variety of ways as the social, economic, technological and geographical conditions around them evolve (Huff and Lutz, 1995). Any change in the spatial structure and socio-economy of urban systems can alter other factors, and thus create new patterns of spatial structure and socio-economy. With such a dynamic interdependence and mechanism, urban systems develop and evolve. Therefore, method of cartographic overlay is a powerful way to investigate the variety developmental factors of urban system. In this part, we will look closely at our options for overlay operations for urban system analysis. We select the 12 cities that have been nodal cities in both 1985 and 1995 as samples to investigate the changes in spatial structure of urban system of China. Distribution and changes of potential of these nodal cities are shown in Figure 4. Among the 12 nodal cities, Guangzhou shows the highest change rate of 280.2%, and Chongqing shows the second (268.4%). It indicates a significant regional characteristic. The three nodal cities of Shanghai urban system, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Wuhan, all surpass the average of potential change rate. The three nodal cities of Beijing urban system (Beijing, Shenyang and Harbin) show a pattern of lower development with lower change rate values. In the Chongqing urban system, four nodal cities (Chongqing, Chengdu, Kunming and Xi’an) present a pattern of great development while the other two nodal cities (Lanzhou and Urumqi) are under the average level. But we cannot find out what socio-economic factors caused such changes if we only look over the nodal structure of 1985 and 1995 in Figure 2. The most important occurrence since the 1980s in China is the enforcement of the Open Policy, which was aimed to achieve the goals of economic development through the introduction of foreign investment and advance technology. Until 1985 China extended the outward-oriented economic strategy to the entire coastal belt, including four Special 220 Economic Zones and 14 Coastal Open Cities. These actions established the bases for an open economy in China. As evidence, in the last five years of the decade (1985–1989), the level of total foreign investment was 10 times greater than that of the preceding five years (Chen, 1991). The effect is so great that we can say that the year of 1985 has become a historical turning point. That is the main reason why we think the Open Policy may also affected the spatial structure of urban system of China. Figure 5 presents us an application of overlay with three layers: (1) changes in potential of nodal cities, (2) changes in the largest linkages of nodal cities, and (3) the distribution of the Special Economic Zones and Coastal Open Cities. Combining the layer of the largest linkages with that of potential, we find that the remarkable development only happened in the linkages between the terminal cities and their directly connected nodal cities. That is to say, from 1985 to 1995 the interactions between the terminal cities and their directly dominated nodal cities have been intensified, but the interactions between low-level nodal cities have not developed yet in Beijing urban system and Chongqing urban system. Such features can be considered as an important structural characteristic in national urban system of China. Furthermore, we overlay the layer of the Special Economic Zones and Coastal Open Cities to the two layers above in order to find the development mechanism of urban system. We know that there are also three Coastal Open Cities (Dalian, Qinhuangdao and Tianjin) distributing within the sphere of Beijing urban system, but why this area present a lower development pattern compared with Shanghai urban system? In the case of Shanghai urban system, the nodal cities Shanghai and Guangzhou are all Coastal Open Cities; however there isn’t any nodal city obtains the qualification of open cities in the Beijing urban system. This phenomenon can be thought as an answer for the question above, and it also shows the interdependence between the spatial structure of urban system and its socio-economy. It also tells us that with the enforcement of the Open Policy, foreign investment became a major power for the development of China’s urban system. Good evidence for this is the extensive development of Shanghai and Guangzhou, especially Guangzhou. So far we have outlined how to use GIS for the analysis of urban system. My intent is to see the analytical capabilities of the GIS for urban system and to watch how they operate. The result of our experiments clearly shows that the aspect of analyzing geographical data is one of the main purposes of a GIS, and such purposes can also be applied to urban system. To some degree, it is up to the urban system researchers to recognize the potential capabilities of GIS, because such awareness will provide us with the conceptual framework to operate on the largest ‘superset’ of geographic analysis capabilities we have at hand. The study of urban system is a broad research field abounding in various theories and applications. Anyway, improvements can be obtained by applying of GIS to this field. 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