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CLASSROOM EDITION
GENERATION GAPS: Population growth affects history’s course
MERICANS WHO WERE born between
1977 and 1994 will form a generation
almost as big as the original Baby
Boom. Their huge numbers will profoundly
influence markets, attitudes and society for
most of the 21st century.
The U.S. Census Bureau says that 72 million people belong to this Echo Boom. Their
proportion of the total U.S. population — 28%
— rivals that of the Baby Boom, which
accounts for 30%.
The sheer size of today’s generation illustrates how the composition of our population
can exert a powerful effect over everyday life.
Today’s teenagers already are influencing
music, sports, computers, video games and
dozens of other markets. Yet the consumer
A
power of these young adults is just the first
ripple of a big wave.
The Baby Boom, born between 1946 and
1964, had a similar impact. Today, there are 76
million Baby Boomers, many of whom are parents of today’s teenagers. Combined, the Baby
Boom and the Echo Boom account for 58% of
the U.S. population.
Other generations currently in the U.S.
population are the World War II generation
(the 38 million people who were born before
1933), the Swing generation (the 31 million
people who were born between 1933 and 1945)
and Generation X (the 45 million people born
between 1965 and 1976).
(All population figures for 1995 and beyond
are estimates made by the Census Bureau.)
How to Read the Charts
These charts provide several views of a threedimensional demographic model created with
data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The model
shows the number of people in the U.S. population at different years of age in each year from
1900 through 2050.
One axis shows ages. Note the red “gaps”
that separate age 17 from 18 and age 65 from 66.
Another axis shows the years from 1900 to 2050.
The third axis shows the number of people, ranging from fewer than one million (blue) to more
than five million (red). Each white line on this
axis represents one million people.
The black dot on all the views of the model
locates teenagers in high school in 1995.
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Births in the U.S.
The front “wall” of the view above,
topped by a thin black line, shows the
number of births in the U.S. from 1900
through 2050.
The World War II generation experienced a growing number of births
during the prosperous 1920s. But births
declined during the Great Depression,
because of the poor economic climate
and a dramatic slowdown in immigration. Births rose sharply again after
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World War II ended, when the Baby
Boom began.
In 1962, the Baby Boom peaked at
more than four million births. The
annual number of births in the U.S.
would not reach this level again until
the early 1990s, when both Baby
Boomers and Generation Xers were
having babies. (The valley between the
Baby Boom and the Echo Boom is Generation X.)
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Life Cycles
The red “gaps” in
each view of the model
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define the three main
irem
ent
phases of life:
Childhood stretches from
birth to 17 years of age.
Adulthood ranges from age 18 to 65.
Retirement includes people who are
age 66 and older.
Notice how the population fluctuates
over time. Because the model shows people at different ages in every year, it’s
easy to follow each generation as it
moves through the three phases of life.
The U.S. wasn’t always on a demographic roller coaster. In the first half of
the 20th century, the annual number of
births in the U.S. remained fairly
steady. Then about nine months after
the end of World War II, the number of
births began a quick, steep climb.
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The 1990s
Consider the decade of the
1990s separately from the rest of the
demographic model.
Find the black dot that marks teens
in high school in 1995. Look to the left of
the dot; the big bulge is the Baby Boom.
Between the Baby Boom and today’s
teens is Generation X. To the left of the
Baby Boom are people in the Swing and
World War II generations, many of
whom are approaching or in retirement.
Now find the decade of the 1990s in
the view of the model on the right to see
how it relates to the past and the future.
The Baby Boom that began in 1946
was caused by a combination of postwar
economic prosperity, steady immigration, and medical and nutritional innovations that extended life expectancy
and lowered infant mortality.
This boom ended in the mid1960s when the influx of women
into the work force, higher education levels for women, and
the increasing use of birthcontrol devices slowed
birth rates.
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Longevity
This view is the reverse of the
“births” view above; it clearly shows
older people in the U.S. population.
In 1900, only 4.1% of the population
was 65 years or older, compared with
12.5% in 1990. In 2025, when a record
number of retirees is expected, 18.4% of
the population will be over 65. In 2050,
as many of today’s teens move into
their golden years, 20.4% of the population will be 65 years and older.
As the number of older Americans
grows, health-care and Social Security
systems will be severely challenged.
More people will depend on their children and savings for financial support.
Karl Hartig
Sources: Bureau of the Census, Department of Commerce; American Demographics