U.S. Hard Red Winter
Wheat Crop Update
2015
Summer Meeting
and
Technical Conference
JULY 31
Mark Hodges
Plains Grains, Inc.
Overview
• 2015 HRW wheat crop early information
– Growing conditions and production outlook
– Southern Plains (Oklahoma/Texas) ; Kansas; Northern plains; the
PNW
– Quality data
– Charts and maps
• Summary
US HRW Production Region
Source – US Wheat Associates
Now for the 2014/15 crop…
Right After We Review the
2012/2013 & 2013/2014 Crops
Drought Quote...
During the drought and the dust storms of the 1930s a Colorado rancher
reportedly said, “The only difference between the Great Plains and the Sahara
Desert is a bunch of damned fools aren‘t trying to farm the Sahara Desert."
2012/13 HRW OLD Crop Quality
• Proteins averaged mostly over 12.5% (but over 13.5% in
the Gulf Tributary states).
– Wide variability from region to region (the west vs. the I-35
corridor (i.e.Wichita) and the northern/northwestern US)
– Drought stressed conditions resulted in lower production southern
plains with higher proteins. (don’t lose that thought…)
• Test weights & TKW’s lower on average HRW…
– Strength and volume were average to slightly lower.
• U.S. Mills watched springs/winter relationship.
– Winter wheat substituted spring wheat…or vice versa…
• New crop transitions later than normal.
Southern HRW growing areas
“ground zero” for 2014 drought.
2014 HRW Crop Conditions
• Most areas had good moisture at planting.
– Acceptable stands.
– Mostly good secondary root systems.
– Close to average number of acres were grazed.
• Late hard freeze in southern Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas did
varying degrees of damage.
– Wheat that was headed had the least damage.
– Later wheat had the most damage and did not show up for over 2
weeks following the freeze.
• Crop conditions continued to decline during critical filling
period.
– Wide spread dry conditions from Western Ks to Central KS
– USDA weekly crop ratings were 2nd worst Kansas on record
2015 HRW Crop Conditions
• Most areas had good moisture at planting.
– Acceptable stands.
– Mostly good secondary root systems.
– Close to average number of acres were grazed.
• Late hard freeze in southern Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas did
varying degrees of damage.
– Wheat that was headed had the least damage.
– Later wheat had the most damage and did not show up for over 2
weeks (or more) following the freeze.
• Crop conditions continued to decline during critical filling
period.
– Wide spread dry conditions from Western Ks to Central KS
– USDA weekly crop ratings were 2nd worst Kansas on record
2014 HRW Crop Conditions
• Crop was 2-3 weeks behind, but caught up rapidly.
– Record heat first of May.
– Then record rainfall in June caused harvest delays.
• Harvest faced many challenges.
– Rains in panhandles, central Oklahoma and Kansas delayed cutting.
– Lack of custom cutters due to poor prospects.
• Overall, rains affected timing of harvest…
2015 HRW Crop Conditions
• Crop was 2-3 weeks behind, but caught up rapidly.
– Record heat first of May.
– Then record rainfall in June caused harvest delays.
• Harvest faced many challenges.
– Rains in panhandles, central Oklahoma and Kansas delayed cutting.
– Lack of custom cutters due to poor prospects.
• Overall, rains affected timing of harvest…
60-Day Observed Precipitation
7/22/2014
NWS 30 Day Observed Precipitation June 3, 2015
Drought in the Southern HRW
growing areas started to shrink by
the end of September 2014
Drought in the Southern HRW
growing areas had all but
disappeared by mid June 2015
2015 HRW Harvest Activity:
Central/Southern U.S.
2015 Southern Plains
2015 Southern Plains
Kansas Outlook
2015 HRW Harvest Activity:
Northern U.S.
Colo., Neb., Dakotas, Wy.,
Mont. and PNW HRW
•
•
•
•
Colorado benefitted from late rains.
– 2015 production 88 million bu.
– 3% increase
Nebraska
– 2015 55 million bu
– Down 23%
South Dakota 2015
– 39 million bu
– Down 34%
Montana
– 94 mi bu
– Up 3%
– hot weather could damage crop
Colo., Neb., Dakotas, Wy.,
Mont. and PNW HRW
(repeat of 2014)
• Wyoming 7 million bu.
– Down 1%
• North Dakota 12 mi bu
– Down 56%
– Acres down 58%
• PNW,
– much like Montana could suffer some damage due to 100
degree plus temperatures during the later stages of crop
development. Harvest has begun in some limited areas of all 3
states. Hail storms have caused losses as well. Crop
maturity/harvest well ahead of schedule.
www.plainsgrains.org
• Interactive Maps
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Protein
Test Weight
TKW
Moisture
Dockage
• Harvest updates posted on US Wheat
Associates website uswheat.org
2015 Gulf Tributary HRW
Grade Distribution*
*Partial
*Partial
2015 Gulf HRW
Evaluation based on individual protein samples*
*Partial
Low Protein –
Represents all samples less than 11.5%
protein*.
(10%)
Medium Protein –
Represents all samples between 11.5%
and 12.5% protein*.
(44%)
High Protein -
Represents all samples greater than
12.5% protein*.
(46%)
*12% Moisture Basis
2015*
Gulf HRW – Wheat Grade Data
*Partial
Low
Med
High
2015
2014
Test Weight (lb/bu)
60.1
59.0
58.2
58.7
60.3
(kg/hl)
79.1
77.6
76.7
77.3
79.3
Damaged Kernels (%)
0.3
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
Foreign Material (%)
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
Shrunken & Broken (%)
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.3
0.9
Total Defects (%)
1.5
1.9
2.1
1.9
1.6
5-Year
2015*/2014/2013/2012/2011/2010
Gulf HRW – Test Weight Dist. (lb/bu)
*Partial
2015*/2014/2013/2012/2011/2010
Gulf HRW – Test Weight Dist. (kg/hl)
*Partial
2015*/2014/2013/2012/2011/2010
Gulf HRW – TKW Distribution
*Partial
2015*
Gulf HRW – Wheat Non-Grade Data
*Partial
Low
Med
High
2015
2014
Dockage (%)
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.4
Moisture (%)
11.1
11.9
11.7
11.7
12.2
Protein (12% mb)
10.9
12.2
13.2
12.5
13.8
(0% mb)
12.4
13.9
15.0
14.2
15.1
Ash (14% mb)
1.49
1.59
1.65
1.61
1.48
(0% mb)
1.74
1.85
1.91
1.87
1.72
5-Year
2015*/2014/2013/2012/2011/2010
Gulf HRW – Protein Distribution
*Partial
2015 PARTIAL
Gulf HRW – Wheat Non-Grade Data
Low
Med
High
2015
2014
Thousand Kernel Wt. (g)
30.4
29.3
28.6
29.1
27.7
Kernel Diameter (mm)
2.61
2.58
2.58
2.58
2.51
Sedimentation (cc)
Falling Number (sec)
-
393
400
404
401
382
5-Year
Summary
• U.S. HRW story is short production year on year on year
due to drought in some states coupled with hot weather
during grainfill (northern and PNW states), hail and
STRIPE RUST (southern and central Plains) .
– Even with the shorter crop and challenges, there will be milling
wheat available.
• Early bake data.
– Protein quantity is available.
– Protein quality will be lower than the last 2 years.
– Year of the “BLENDER…”
• Wheat plantings to begin in 45 days…
• El Nino?
2015 HRW WHEAT
QUALITY SURVEY
The data contained in this presentation were collected, tested
and analyzed by PLAINS GRAINS, INC., an organization of
the HRW States of Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado, Kansas,
Nebraska, Wyoming, South Dakota, Montana, Washington,
Oregon, Idaho and North Dakota in cooperation with USDAARS Hard Winter Wheat Quality Laboratory, Manhattan,
Kansas. For more detailed information about the 2014 HRW
crop go to:
www.plainsgrains.org