1 How the majority populations explain and view ethnic residential segregation in Helsinki, Oslo and Stockholm Roger Andersson, Institute for Housing and Urban Research, Uppsala University Ingar Brattbakk, Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo Mari Vaattovaara, Department of Geography, University of Helsinki First draft version, not complete. 2 1. Introduction Is ethnic segregation a problem? This is one of the most common questions that ethnic segregation researchers get from media representatives and it is often difficult to answer. Although a researchbased answer to the question is a legitimate request to put on the research community it might be equally important to put the question to the ordinary residents, who collectively shapes the future of segregation by taking decisions regarding where to move to and from. If people judge the quality and characteristics of residential areas by taking their ethnic composition into account, for instance by exercising a flight or avoidance behaviour in relation to immigrant concentration areas, segregation might be difficult to combat even if we the researchers would know how the phenomenon comes about and what consequences it might bring. This is one reason for our choice to approach nativeborn residents with precisely this question; is ethnic residential segregation a problem and for whom? This paper also deals with ordinary peoples’ view on the mechanisms that generate ethnic segregation. We know that politicians like to emphasize the “natural” and “voluntary” character of neighbourhood sorting processes, lately expressed by the Swedish prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt: “It is not necessarily problematic that people from another country prefer to live in proximity to country fellowmen” (Translation from newspaper interview November 29, 2012; http://www.sydsvenskan.se/bostad/fordubblad-bostadssegregation/ ) This is of course correct but this commentary in an ongoing debate on increasing concentration of minority residents in already immigrant dense neighbourhoods tends to favour one particular type of explanation: volunteer clustering. We think that this not only affects the public’s view regarding why segregation develops but we believe that it is also of importance to know whether this popular explanation is indeed widespread among ordinary citizens. If so, the scope for political interventions is probably weak. Why intervene in processes shaped by something highly natural? Neither of these two questions, whether segregation is viewed as something problematic by ordinary citizens and peoples’ way of explaining ethnic segregation, have –as far as we can ascertain– been researched before and certainly not in northern Europe. Besides surveying new aspects, we intend to contribute to the ethnic residential segregation research field also by focus our attention not to ethnic minority residents but to the native-born majority, i.e. to those that in the Nordic context can be expected to have on average a) more economic resources to make a choice where to reside in the city, b) better information about the housing market, c) better access to informal networks that can be an asset in competing over housing, and not least d) face less discrimination when applying for loans or a rental contract. 2. Explaining ethnic residential segregation –a research perspective There are many hypotheses regarding causes of ethnic residential segregation. Some refer less to the ethnic dimension of the housing market sorting processes as such but focus rather on the compositional differences between different ethnic groups. If a minority category comprises people having rather different age, family or income characteristics compared with another group, this could translate into systematic differences in residential and mobility patterns (Andersson 2012, Finney 3 and Simpson 2008). Other explanations focus more explicitly on factors more directly related to the ethnic dimension. Such causes could either be attributed to the minority or to the majority category and/or to the interplay between members of these categories. Some theorists argue that ethnic segregation should be understood as produced by minority households’ strive to cluster, i.e. to congregate for mitigating accommodation to new, relatively unfamiliar or frightening circumstances, or to congregate in order to sustain certain cultural, including religious, practices (Boal 1976). A variant of this strand of research sees geographical concentrations of minorities (clustering) as a more or less temporary stage and argues that as newcomers become socially more integrated they will also assimilate spatially, i.e. move out of ethnic concentrations to neighbourhoods having a higher proportion of majority residents. This so called spatial assimilation thesis (Massey 1985, South, Crowder & Pais, 2008) predicts that ethnic concentrations comprise a higher share of newcomers and of people not being well integrated in the labour market but it stresses that ethnic residential segregation should be studied by focusing on decisions taken by minority group members. We acknowledge the relevance of including the spatial assimilation thesis in studies of ethnic residential segregation but we also argue that it might direct interest away from another potentially more important category of people: the majority group (Ellen 2000; Crowder, Hall and Tolnay 2011). In the context of immigration to the Nordic countries it can be argued that not only are majority residents on average better informed about the housing markets and variations in institutional and neighbourhood conditions, they have also on average more options due to their wider social network and higher income (Figure 1). Key concepts in our strategy to focus more closely on the natives’ behaviour are ‘flight’, ‘avoidance’, and ‘blocking’. These concepts will be applied in other papers making use of the same survey as this one while this particular paper focuses more on the nativeborn Finns’, Norwegians’, and Swedes’ general attitude towards ethnic segregation and whether they see this urban phenomenon as problematic or not. Figure 1 sketches some of the most common propositions regarding ethnic residential segregation, focusing on two generalised categories of actors (a minority and a majority/charter group) and the institutional setup affecting relations between them as well as regulating the housing market. Both categories of residents are hypothesized to have preferences but the constraints facing the two groups differ. It is more likely that the minority category faces discrimination, either directly by majority residents or by institutional actors influencing housing allocation in a city. Preferences could of course vary much within each category but segregation research attaches flight, avoidance and active blocking behavior (the latter meaning keeping minorities out of native-dense neighbourhoods) to the majority category while clustering and its counterpart spatial assimilation is seen from the perspective of the minority category. It is of course the case that the natives’ flight, avoidance and blocking behavior in reality produce clusters of natives; “isolated host communities” as they are labeled by Johnston, Forrest and Poulsen (2002). 4 Figure 1. Sketching a conceptual frame. Ethnic residential segregation Minority category Majority category Behaviour/actions Institutional regulations and arrangements Behaviour/actions Preferences Constraints (gatekeepers) Constraints Clustering Housing allocation in the rental market Income/wealth (+) Flight Income/wealth (-) Spatial Information (-) assimilation Awareness space (-) Financing purshase of a cooperative Discrimination dwelling or a house (Blocking) Housing market segmentation Information (+) Preferences Avoidance Blocking So, partly in response to the behaviour of the majority, the minority itself may either attempt to achieve spatial assimilation or to cluster. In the latter case, the literature offers a set of reasons for why a minority would cluster: for defence, for mutual support, for the opportunity to reproduce cultural behaviour, and for (offensive) struggle (see Boal 1976 and Know and Pinch 2006). Knox and Pinch (2006) also discuss three types of ethnic clusters, distinguished on the basis of longevity/permanence and the degree of free choice: colonies, enclaves, and ghettos. While both the colony and the enclave is regarded to be a type of congregation (volunteer clustering), the ghetto is not. The difference between the colony and the enclave is that the former is predominantly a first generation phenomenon (these clusters therefore decline and dissolve if immigration decreases or ends), while the latter is maintained and reproduces over generations. Applying this conceptual scheme on the Nordic countries, we can state that –despite the rhetorics of the former Danish government– there are no ghettos. Enclave-like residential patterns might be found to some degree but they are unusual and not at all of the scale and density characterising well-known examples of ethnic enclaves in for instance the U.S. (China Towns in some cities, “Korea-Town” in Los Angeles, clusters of Hispanics in Miami etc). What we do find in Nordic cities is moderate levels of concentration of first generation immigrants, i.e. the colony type. One should however add that even such colony concentrations are small in numbers and seldom comprise more than 10 percent of the population of a particular neighbourhood. Although figure 1 is only a rough account of the state of the art in ethnic segregation research, it serves as a starting point for our analyses. Segregation research in the Nordic countries has expanded rapidly over the last decade and our knowledge about how residential patterns have evolved and changed is relatively good. There is also a growing body of research focusing on the effects of segregation (in particular neighbourhood effects and in Sweden). However, surprisingly few studies 5 have approached the two groups of actors discussed above: minority and majority group residents. This paper aims at contributing to expand our knowledge in this respect. It is based on a survey conducted during the fall of 2011 in Helsinki, Oslo and Stockholm. 3,000 native-born individuals aged 25 to 50 were targeted in each city by a jointly developed questionnaire sent out by respective statistical authority. As indicated in the introduction, we have two main objectives with this paper. First, we will in draw upon a set of questions where we tried to grasp how the majority views and explains existing patterns. We will analyse whether or not the native-born see ethnic segregation as a problem, and if yes, for whom? We will then study what people in general think produces ethnic residential segregation: as something caused by minority residents’ wish to congregate? Do they maybe see it as caused by the natives’ strive to live among natives? Do they emphasize discrimination and/or factors related to the structural features of the housing market? Our second objective is to bring the neighbourhood context into the picture: Is it so that people living in different ethnic compositional contexts tend to explain the phenomena in different ways and to view segregation differently? Are natives residing in the most immigrant-dense neighbourhoods emphasizing other explanations and do they see segregation as less or more problematic compared to those who reside in other neighbourhood contexts? 3. Deriving hypotheses: attitudes towards immigrants in the Nordic countries As will be clearer below, we possess survey data that enables us to make different types of comparative studies. Not only can we compare data from Helsinki, Oslo and Stockholm, we can also compare different subgroups defined by their residential characteristics within each of the three cities. However, before engaging with our own material we will portrait the more general features concerning attitudes towards immigration and immigrants in respective country. If such attitudes differ much it can be hypothesized that we will find similar variations in our own survey data. The bulk of existing research has used survey approaches and relates hypotheses and findings to theories about trust, tolerance, and discrimination. Using data from the World Value Survey (WVS 2009) Delhey and Welzel (2012) find –not surprisingly– that people in fifty researched countries across the world have a high level of trust in their in-group (measured as trust in family members, neighbours and people one knows personally). Trust in out-groups (defined as trusting people of other nationality, other religion and people one meet for the first time) varies substantially across countries. Finland, Norway and Sweden score high on both dimensions. Norway at the very top in terms of ingroup trust followed by Egypt, Sweden and Finland while Sweden scores at the top in terms of outgroup trust, followed by Norway, France, UK and Finland. Delhey and Welzer find that there is a fairly strong correlation between the two forms of trust (r=.43) and that it is always positive, i.e. when ingroup trust is higher we can expect outgroup trust also to be higher. However, only about one third of the variance in outgroup trust can be explained by the level of ingroup trust so Delhey and Welzer aim at understanding what else can explain these variations. They find that human empowerment (access to media, GNP per capita and individual income/education) and an index of open-access activities (measured as ‘signing petitions,’ ‘joining in boycotts,’ and ‘attending peaceful demonstrations’) explain a substantial part of the 6 remaining variation in outgroup trust. As can be expected, in a global perspective the three Nordic countries do not differ much internally in this respect and being democracies with a high level of economic standard and low level of inequality they come out as strong “trust societies”. Weldon (2006) has studied the institutional context of tolerance for ethnic minorities in Western Europe. The framework is macrotheoretical and he classifies EU member states into “citizen regime types”, distinguishing between Collectivistic-ethnic, Collectivistic-civic, and Individualistic-civic. He sets out to measure social and political tolerance where the former refers to tolerating “the content of that expression and an actual willingness to accept ethnic difference” (p. 336). Political tolerance concerns to what an extent ethnic minorities are entitled to the same basic political rights as the native population. Weldon hypothesizes that the collectivistic-ethnic type produces low social tolerance and low political tolerance, the Collectivistic-civic type is expected to generate low social tolerance but high political tolerance while the Individualistic-civic type is expected to score high on both these tolerance dimensions. Among the larger countries, Germany is classified into the first type, France into the second, and the UK into the third. He groups Denmark into the middle category while both Finland and Sweden are placed in the last regime type. We guess that had Norway been included it would also fall into the third type. Weldon’s empirical analysis, using a multilevel regression model, makes use of both country indicators and individual survey data (taken from the 1997 Eurobarometer Survey on prejudice and intolerance). Weldon’s results confirm a strong relationship between the laws governing the acquisition and expression of citizenship, that is, citizenship regime type, and individual tolerance judgments. However, he also stresses the importance of having better contextual information: “Finally, along with other recent contributions to the tolerance literature (….) the findings indicate a need to rethink our approaches to understanding tolerance, focusing more on contextual factors. (….)Thus, in order to understand fully the nature of tolerance, it is necessary to understand the political and social context in which people are required to make tolerance judgments.” (p. 346) We have used data from the European Social Survey (Round 5, 2010) for analysing the country-wide opinions towards immigrants in Europe (Source: ESS Round 5: European Social Survey Round 5 Data (2010). Data file edition 2.0. Norwegian Social Science Data Services, Norway – Data Archive and distributor of ESS data). We will partly draw upon these general attitudes when deriving a set of hypotheses regarding what to expect from analysing our own survey data. Using the sample weights recommended by ESS for the 26 countries targeted, all four Nordic countries score high on replying to the question whether immigrants make country a worse or better place to live (1 to 10 scale where 10 is the most affirmative response). While the average score for the 26 countries is 4.7, Sweden scores at the top (6.5), Denmark number 3 (5.8), Finland number 6 (5.4) and Norway number 7 (5.3). Responses are however very different if we analyse the proportion of respondents stating that they would like many immigrants from poorer non-European countries to come and live here. Swedes are still the most willing (34% state this option), which is almost three times more than the average European value (12%). Respondents from Finland are among the most unwilling (5%), but also Denmark is below the average (11%). With 14% Norway ranks number 8, after countries such as Bulgaria, Croatia, Poland, Ukraine, Spain and Germany. There is a wide-spread belief across Europe that people with different ethnicity/race are treated differently by the Police; 44% state that “people from different race treated worse”. If this is taken as 7 an indicator of real police praxis or of whether people in general are aware of discriminatory behavior is difficult to know. However, once again a clear majority of the Swedes report that discrimination in this sense exists (65%, ranking tied second after Israel (67%)). Norwegians (48%) and Danes (45%) score slightly above the European average while Finland is below (39%). It seems as if positive attitudes towards immigrants and refugees go hand in hand with acknowledging that immigrants are discriminated against; a bigger proportion of those acknowledging police discrimination on racial grounds in Sweden compared to those who do not thinks that immigrants make the country a better place to live in (6.9 compared to 6.1). The role of neighbourhood for affecting attitudes and trust In American political science research on voting, the term racial threat refers to the association between white peoples’ propensity to vote for racial conservatives and the proportion of AfricanAmericans living in their local area (Key 1949; Blalock 1967). This idea takes its point of departure in the fact that white racial attitudes and discriminatory behavior is associated with the relative size of minority groups in a community. The idea that peoples’ social relations and behaviour are affected by racial/ethnic compositions has much later taken center stage in much of the ongoing social science research on social cohesion, trust, and participation (Alisina and Ferrara 2000, 2002, Putnam 2007) and it is stated that ethnic diversity in communities and neighbourhoods undermines trust between people. In a series of papers by Uslaner (summarized in Uslaner 2012)) he argues that it is not diversity but social isolation produced by residential segregation that drives such results: "The problem is not diversity, but residential segregation." Living in segregated neighborhoods reinforces in-group trust at the expense of out-group (generalized) trust." (p. 36) Reading the literature on attitudes towards ethnic minorities and some of the other partly related bodies of literature around issues such and tolerance and trust, it is clear that the actual neighbourhood context of individuals matters, and so does ethnic residential segregation. Precisely this idea lies behind the design of our questionnaire (see below). We summarize our reading of some of the relevant existing survey-based research to generate a set of hypotheses concerning what to expect from our own study. (1) Given the prominent position but negative connotations that ethnic residential segregation has in each Nordic country’s political and cultural debate, we expect that most our respondents in all three capital cities will regard ethnic segregation as a problem. We think it is natural to expect that people living in the most immigrant-dense neighbourhoods will regard the problem to be bigger, not least because they will potentially face territorial stigmatization, i.e. that their neighbourhoods have a bad reputation and is regarded to be unattractive. Such a stigma would not only affect immigrants residing there but native-born residents as well. (2) We expect attitudes reported in our Nordic survey to confirm the overall pattern found in the ESS data. This means that we expect native Swedes in Stockholm a) to a higher extent point at structural and institutional factors as contributing to ethnic segregation, and b) to a lesser extent put blame on immigrants for the situation. Following this reasoning, we expect respondents in Oslo to be in a middle position concerning these two aspects while Helsinki respondents will place more emphasis on immigrants’ self-segregation. However, as indicated by Weldon’s study, differences cannot be 8 expected to be big –despite the fact that an immigrant dense neighbourhood normally and in both absolute and relative terms means something different in Helsinki compared to Oslo and Stockholm. (3) It is likely so that a person’s own exposure to immigrants affects the view on ethnic residential segregation. However, precisely how is difficult to know. If the Swedes overall more positive attitudes towards immigration and immigrants are due to higher exposure to immigrants, we would expect those individuals residing in high immigrant densities in all three cities to be less inclined to “blame the victims”, i.e. to declare that ethnic segregation is driven by minorities’ wish to congregate among co-ethnics. It is however also possible that if volunteer clustering is an important factor, those witnessing this locally would be in a better position to judge. The outcome would thus be the opposite. 4. Data collection and sample design The surveys targeted native-born residents in the Helsinki, Oslo, and Stockholm region. They were carried out as postal surveys with an optional possibility for Helsinki respondents to respond on-line (web-based questionnaire). The questionnaires used in the three cities were more or less identical but each team could also add questions that seemed to be important in one context but maybe not in the other two. Questions were developed in English in the spring and summer of 2011 and they were later translated into respective language (Norwegian for Oslo, Swedish for Stockholm, and Finnish and Swedish for Helsinki (officially a bilingual city)). The design of the questionnaires was carried out in a dialogue with respective statistical authority, which was also commissioned to carry out the following tasks. 1. Identify the population and draw the sample. 2. Sending out the questionnaires and three reminders (Helsinki and Stockholm); two reminders for Oslo. At least one reminder contained a new questionnaire. 3. Collecting questionnaires and transforming data into electronic form. 4. Add register data onto each individual respondent. 5. Merge survey and register data into one single data file. 6. Carry out the non-response analysis and producing sample weights to be used in the analyses. 7. Producing the technical report and deliver the completed data file. Questionnaires were sent out in September 2011 (Helsinki and Stockholm) and October 2011 (Oslo). The collection of questionnaires went on until around Christmas (January for Oslo) and the final datasets were delivered in January to March 2012. Four strata The samples were drawn from four sub-populations residing in each capital region January 1st 2008 and still living there at the time the sample was drawn (summer 2011). In all three cities, 750 nativeborn aged 25 to 50 in 2008 in each of the following four strata received the questionnaire. Stratum 1: ‘Stayers’ in the most immigrant-dense neighbourhoods. This sub-population lived in any of the neighbourhoods belonging to the upper decile in terms of percentage Non-Nordic born in neighbourhoods. We label these neighbourhoods ‘Decile 10 neighbourhoods’ and stratum 1 is labeled Decile 10 stayers. The requirement for qualifying was that people should have lived in the 9 same Decile 10 neighbourhood 2008 and 2009 (two years) and that they still lived there at the time of the survey. Stratum 2: ‘Movers’ out of a Decile 10 neighbourhood. The definition of a mover is that (s)he should have lived in the same Decile 10 neighbourhood 2008 and 2009 but have moved to another neighbourhood within the region in 2010 (and not having moved again after that). We label this subpopulation Decile 10 movers. Stratum 3: ‘Stayers’ in other types of neighbourhoods within the region (i.e. Decile 1 to 9 neighbourhoods). The basic definition of a stayer is the same as for Stratum 1. This category is labeled ‘Other stayers’. Stratum 4: ‘Movers’ out of other neighbourhoods (i.e. Decile 1 to 9 neighbourhoods). We apply the same basic definition of a mover as for (2) and we label this category ‘Other movers’. In all cities we excluded neighbourhoods having few residents (less than 500 in Oslo, 300 in Helsinki, and 100 in Stockholm). The difference here has primarily to do with the size of the statistical areas, these being bigger in Oslo (average size 5,400) and Helsinki (3,900) compared to Stockholm (2,100). Movers in Stockholm were allowed to move into such a population wise small neighbourhood but no one resided there in 2008-09. When the questionnaires were sent out it transpired that a few individuals in all three cities were not actually meeting the basic criteria of being part of a subpopulation; they could have died, left the region or left the country. This ‘over-coverage’ reduces some of the samples somewhat, see table 1. As can be seen in Table 1, response rates are higher in Oslo than in Stockholm and Helsinki. One could speculate concerning the reasons for this outcome (more concern, more public debate about ethnic residential segregation in Oslo?) but we find response rates across the three cities and the four strata in each city to be acceptable. We have also a very good picture of the non-responses. To summarize: in all surveys some categories are less inclined to respond. Broadly speaking, males, young people, low income people, and those having a low level of education have lower response rates than have their demographic and socioeconomic opposites. This is the case also in this survey and such differences also explain most of the differences in response rates across the four strata in each city. The typical order is that ‘Other stayers’ have the highest response rate, followed by ‘Other movers’, ‘Decile 10 movers’ and finally ‘Decile 10 stayers’. We mention above that the statistical authorities carrying out the data collection also added register data to the respondent files. We did therefore not have to ask about the respondents’ age, gender, income and education (not included for Stockholm). For Oslo and Helsinki also information concerning family type was added (civil status for Stockholm). In the Stockholm and Oslo cases we also have the specific neighbourhood codes for 2008 to 2011, which make it possible to generate and add other neighbourhood characteristics if needed. When responding to the questionnaire the person agrees that register information is being used in the analyses. However, only register variables explicitly mentioned in the introductory letter can be added and only after consent given by the respondent. 10 Table 1. Sub-populations, sample size and response rates for the survey. City Oslo Population Original sample Over-coverage Net sample Responses Response rate Stratum 1 Stratum 2 Stratum 3 Stratum 4 Decile 10 n'hood Decile 10 Other Other stayers movers stayers movers Total 14728 750 0 750 409 54.4 2931 750 2 748 362 48.4 203199 750 0 750 410 54.7 33954 750 0 750 385 51.3 254812 3000 2 2998 1566 52.2 Helsinki Population Original sample Over-coverage Net sample Responses Response rate 29102 750 1 749 309 41.2 2909 750 3 747 335 44.7 195195 750 0 750 350 46.7 20490 750 1 749 345 46.0 247696 3000 5 2995 1339 44.6 Stockholm Population Original sample Over-coverage Net sample Responses Response rate 24826 750 2 748 298 39.8 3460 750 5 745 321 43.1 351158 750 1 749 396 52.9 37794 750 4 746 356 47.7 417238 3000 12 2988 1371 45.9 11 5. Results The results section is not yet complete. 12 13
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