Market Track PerspectiveTM
Black Friday Guide: From the Mind of the Shopper
Shopper Survey results show online shopping preferences during the holiday season
Market Track’s
Shopper Insight Series
L
ess than two months separate US retailers and manufacturers from Black Friday—
one of the largest single-weekend shopping events of the year. Companies in the
retail industry are strategizing on how make the most of the shorter time frame
this year and how to get the season off to a fast start even before Black Friday.
With one fewer weekend between Thanksgiving and Christmas and six fewer days
between the holidays, promotional efforts have already begun—Costco has had nativity
scenes, toys and holiday wrapping paper on display since August, Walmart has started
cutting prices on toys, and Kmart’s first holiday commercial has already aired.
Black Friday 2012 had mixed results, as retail sales saw a 1.8% drop to $11.2 billion,
despite an increase in store traffic, according to ShopperTrak. The early store openings on
Thanksgiving attracted some of the spending that would typically happen on Black Friday.
Conversely, online retail sales saw higher than expected gains during Black Friday 2012,
coming in at more than $1 billion for the first time ever, growing 28% from Black Friday
2011. comScore reported that 57.3 million Americans visited online retailers on Black
Friday. This represents an increase of 18%, year over year. The top five online retailers with
the most traffic on Black Friday were Amazon.com, Walmart Stores, Best Buy, Target and
Apple, according to comScore.
The segment of US shoppers who regularly shop online continues to grow at a rapid
pace, with eMarketer estimating online sales for 2013 increasing 16.4%. A large portion
of that increase will be during the Holiday Shopping Season (HSS), with over 23% of the
growth for the year occurring during November and December. The increases in digital
activity seen during this key event period present opportunity for retailers not only in the
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To extend Market Track’s mission
to provide our clients clarity
and insight into promotional
and pricing execution, we have
launched a primary research
initiative called Market Track’s
Shopper Insight Series. This
research is being conducted with
an extensive shopper panel that is
demographically segmented in a
manner that allows us to examine
promotional and pricing influencers
by key category and product types
across age, location, income, family
and technical usage tendencies.
In our second installment of
the Market Track Shopper Insight
Series, we conducted a survey of
1,000 primary “online shoppers,”
or shoppers that make at least
one purchase online per month,
to understand more about their
behaviors during both Black
Friday and the entire holiday
shopping season. Throughout
this Perspective, these shoppers
will be referred to as either “online
shoppers” or “respondents”. We
will share when, where, and how
much this shopper segment shops,
what they buy, and what influences
their shopping behaviors and
decisions. We will then provide
actionable recommendations
on how to best align your multichannel promotional plan with the
preferences of the online shopper
before the start of the holiday
shopping season 2013.
Online shoppers plan to shop both
in-store and online on Black Friday
Given that 53% of respondents who shop
online on Black Friday ALSO shop in-store,
it is important to present compelling offers
across promotional media types to ensure
you put yourself in the best possible position
to capture their purchases no matter where
they choose to shop.
Source: Market Track Online Shopper Insight Survey
Figure 1: In-store vs. online shopping, Black Friday
form of additional online sales, but increasingly research being
traffic from 2011, according to ShopperTrak. In addition, there
done on PCs, tablets or mobile phones is influencing in-store
was a significant spike in retailer website traffic on Black Friday
sales. Mobile-influenced retail store sales will account for 8%, or
2012, with 47.5% of consumers shopping online on Black Friday,
$66 billion, in retail store sales this holiday season, according to
according to NRF.
Deloitte. More retailers are bringing together their physical and
To gain an understanding of what drives purchase behavior on
online properties in the form of services such as price matching,
Black Friday, we asked online shoppers if they go in-store or online
buy online and pick up in store, and are making the shopping
to shop, how they choose which store to go to first, how many
experience consistent across all channels.
stores they typically visit, and what influences their decision to
In advance of the 2013 holiday shopping season, it is
shop in-store or online, or both. We found that online shoppers
important to consider the tendencies and behaviors of the
make trips both to the store and online, and some to both, on
online shopper segment in order to fully maximize reach and
Black Friday.
impact of promotional efforts. Retailers
must be prepared to not only execute
Black Friday online shoppers shop more stores overall
a multi-channel plan for promotional
engagement using their websites, email,
At how many stores do you typically shop (in-store/online) on Black Friday?
social media, and mobile outlets, but also
be able to monitor how their competitors
are leveraging these media so they can
choose to react or not, depending on their
strategy.
Online shopping activity
flourishes on Black Friday
Shoppers are in control and have more
options in regard to where and how they
transact, and they are exercising the ability
to shop wherever and whenever they have
the urge. Black Friday brings more foot
traffic in-store than any other shopping
event or holiday on the calendar. Even
though sales saw a dip during Black
Source: Market Track Online Shopper Insight Survey
Friday 2012, bricks-and-mortar store
locations saw a 3.5% increase in foot
Figure 2: Number of stores shopped in-store vs. online, Black Friday
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Market Track PerspectiveTM
Print and websites used most by all age groups
Source: Market Track Online Shopper Insight Survey
Knowing what audience you
are reaching through various
media types is key in maximizing
the impact of your promotions.
Across all age groups, print and
retailer websites are the most
influential media types according
to our online shopper panel. The
30-39 group are the heaviest
users of promotions across all
media types cumulatively.
Figure 3: Promotional media types used to plan Black Friday shopping trip
Of the online shoppers surveyed, 53% said they will shop in-store three or more retailers, showing not only that this segment of
on Black Friday and 74% said they will shop online, as seen in Figure shoppers prefers to shop online on Black Friday, but also that
1. Of those online shoppers that shop in-store, 43% said they shop they are frequenting more retailers when shopping online. Put
at only one store on Black Friday, and 60% shop at one or two stores simply, the average Black Friday online shopper that shops in(Figure 2). This is important for bricks-andstore visits one or two stores and visits three or
mortar retailers to consider—if the majority Of those online shoppers
more retailer websites.
of online shoppers that shop in-store are only
The question is: what promotional media
that shop in-store, 43% said
visiting one or two retailers on Black Friday,
types are being used by shoppers to plan their
it is crucially important that you be among they shop at only one store
Black Friday strategy and are there differences
on Black Friday, and 60%
their first stops on Black Friday.
in promotional preference across various
demographic groups? In Figure 3, it clearly
shop at one or two stores
Shoppers use multiple
shows that all groups are using a multitude of
media types to plan Black Friday trip
promotional media types to plan their shopping
With that in mind, we asked those online
trip for Black Friday, with the majority across
shoppers that go in-store on Black Friday how they decide where
all age groups using print and retailer websites most heavily. In
to go first. 49% of respondents said they would pick the store that
addition, this view demonstrates the 30-39 and 21-29 age groups
has the best overall prices and deals. 24% said they would pick the are most promotionally driven on a cumulative basis. Keeping in
store that had the best deal or “doorbuster” on one specific item.
mind what audience you are trying to reach across media types
To be the first destination for the Black Friday in-store shopping
will increase potential impact and efficacy.
trip, retailers have to feature the best overall prices and deals,
There is opportunity to win sales both in-store and online if
the best deal or “doorbuster” on a select set of items, or some
retailers engage shoppers with a multi-channel promotional plan.
combination therein, according to shoppers.
This necessitates an understanding on the part of retailers of how
The survey found that a larger percentage (74%) of online
competitors are leveraging digital media from their website home
shoppers claimed to shop online than in-store on Black Friday
page, email and social media during the weeks leading up to Black
(Figure 1). Within that group, 60% said they shop online at
Friday, and on Black Friday, so that they can differentiate their
The Power of Market Intelligence
3
Email, 11/18
Home Page,
11/19
Email, 11/23
Shopper
Email, 11/21
Email, 11/22
Having a deliberate
outreach strategy that
consistently promotes
a large event such as
Black Friday across
multiple media types
enables flexibility
to communicate
between promotional
vehicles. The push
and pull between
email, e-circulars
and retailer websites
presents opportunity
to present the
shopper with
multiple calls to
action, increasing
the chances of them
acting on your
promotions.
Print, 11/22
Figure 4: h.h. Gregg Promotional Cadence, Black Friday Week 2012
promotional value in the eyes of the multi-channel shopper. It is
not possible to know whether retailers have the best prices and
deals on Black Friday without having visibility into competitors’
promotions across all media types. Particularly within the online
shopper segment, a retailer cannot simply compare their deals to
their competitor’s Black Friday print circular and be confident that
they have the best overall prices and deals, as prices dynamically
change online multiple times per day or even by the hour.
h.h. gregg goes multi-channel for Black Friday 2012
Looking at some of the multi-channel promotions from Black
Friday 2012 will help identify opportunities for retailers to offer
promotional deals that will attract this highly connected segment
of shoppers. A large number of retailers leveraged their print
circular, websites, email blasts, and social media outlets to drive
different shopper behaviors in 2012, while others focused their
promotional efforts on bringing Black Friday shoppers in-store
only. One multi-channel promotional campaign for Black Friday
2012 that stood out was h.h. gregg. The electronics retailer
leveraged their print circular front pages, website home page, and
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Market Track PerspectiveTM
strategically timed email promotions to offer shoppers easy access
to information on Black Friday deals both in-store and online.
Figure 4 shows a progression of h.h. gregg promotions
starting the Sunday before Black Friday through Black Friday.
On the Sunday prior to Black Friday, they sent an email to opt-in
subscribers letting them know Black Friday prices started both
in-store and online that day. The email was followed by a change
to their home page on Monday promoting the same message,
and providing the first link to their Black Friday print circular. On
Wednesday, h.h. gregg sent another Black Friday email with an
exclusive promotion that let shoppers know they can shop Black
Friday deals on Thursday on their website, while in the same email
they reminded shoppers of their store opening time for those
shoppers planning to go in-store. The Black Friday print circular
was distributed on Thursday, along with another email promotion
with a one-click link to the e-circular, a one-click link to the
online shopping area, and a reminder of the store opening time,
giving shoppers every option available to take advantage of their
“doorbuster” deals. They added a new promotion late in the day on
Thursday for online shoppers to take advantage of exclusive hourly
Where online shoppers prefer to buy top holiday categories
Understanding
which categories
are frequently
researched
and purchased
online can help
determine where
they fall in your
promotional mix
for Black Friday.
Source: Market Track Online Shopper Insight Survey
Figure 5: Online shopper purchasing preferences, in-store vs. online by category
deals which was delivered via another email blast, and they closed
the week off on Friday with one more email that gave shoppers a
look at some “Last Minute” Black Friday deals.
The h.h. gregg promotional plan for the week of Black Friday
leveraged multiple media types, provided flexibility to buy in-store
or online rather than forcing shoppers to choose one or the other,
and added new deals to their Black Friday offering to maximize
reach prior to the close of the Black Friday event. This strategy
optimized the opportunity to communicate with all audiences
regardless of where they were planning to shop.
Online shoppers prefer to buy electronics,
toys & games online—everything else in-store
As we touched on earlier, if a retailer has the best overall deals
and prices, or a select “doorbuster” item on which they are
the most competitive price on Black Friday, the retailer will be
in a good position to win online shoppers. But what product
categories are online shoppers looking for on Black Friday? Do online
shoppers have preferences when it comes to when and where they
buy certain products during the holiday shopping season? As we
saw during holiday 2012, many shoppers waited until late in the
holiday shopping season to finish their holiday shopping, which
forced retailers to run deep discounts late in the season, affecting
margins. In this section, we uncover online shopper preferences
for buying certain categories during the holiday shopping season,
and, more specifically, buying preferences on Black Friday.
We asked where survey respondents prefer to purchase
certain categories during the holiday shopping season—either
in-store or online (see Figure 5). Online shoppers said they
prefer to purchase the majority of categories in-store, including
home appliances, apparel, jewelry, hardware/tools, health/
beauty products, and grocery items. The two categories that
online shoppers indicated they prefer to purchase online were
electronics/computers, and toys & games/entertainment—two
of the largest traffic-driving product categories on Black Friday.
Toys & games/entertainment had the largest percentage of
respondents claim they prefer to buy online, at 66%, while 54% of
respondents claimed they prefer to electronics/computers online.
Showrooming: How much does it take?
With all of the discussion around showrooming and webrooming,
one of the important things to understand is at what point does
the shopper decide to leave the store without the item they
planned on purchasing in favor of getting a better deal online? As
we learned in our first Shopper Insights Series study, the majority
of today’s shoppers practice showrooming and webrooming in
order to find the best
deal. Shoppers are also
Over 86% of online shoppers comparing promotions
said they are comparing
they see in print—over
print promotions to prices
86% of online shoppers
said they are comparing
online
those promotions to
prices online. So, how do
retailers keep this segment of shoppers from taking their purchase
online? What is the threshold discount at which they forego the
in-store purchase, and does that vary by category?
Figure 6 shows what level of discount would make our
survey respondents leave the store and take their purchase
online in the top two categories. For the electronics/computers
and toys & games/entertainment categories, less than 10% of
respondents said they would always buy in-store. About 20% of
respondents said they would forego their electronics/computers
or toys & games/entertainment purchases online if only a 5-10%
The Power of Market Intelligence
5
Level of online discount that would make shoppers forego in-store purchases
Source: Market Track Online Shopper Insight Survey
There is a high
propensity for
online shoppers
to abandon their
purchase in-store
when presented
with discounts
between 5-30%
online
Figure 6: Discount level that would make online shoppers buy online instead of in-store in key categories
discount was available. Roughly an additional 25% would take
their purchase online at a 10-20% discount. For these two
categories in particular, online shoppers have a high propensity
to take their in-store purchase online at a low rate of discount.
Retailers need constant visibility into all competitive prices
in the online space, and have a plan on how to counter lower
prices if they want to keep these category purchases in-store.
shoppers claim they prefer to buy products on Black Friday over
any other time frame during the holiday shopping season. In
fact, about 75% of online shoppers claimed to prefer to buy
electronics/computers products on or before Cyber Monday, and
62% prefer to buy sometime over Black Friday weekend (Black
Friday through Cyber Monday).
Shoppers want to check off higher ticket items early, for as low
a price as possible. What this means to retailers competing in the
Black Friday top choice for purchasing electronics,
electronics/computers space is that they have four days starting
secondary choice for other categories
Thanksgiving night/Black Friday morning to reach at least 60%
Our survey results also showed that online shoppers prefer to buy of their target sales for the season if online shopper behaviors
certain items at different times over the course of the season. Logic prove to align with their preferences this upcoming Black Friday
would dictate that shoppers would prefer to buy the products on weekend. By comparison, only about 40% of online shoppers
their list when they are at the best price. Therefore, we sought to claim they prefer to buy home appliances sometime between
understand when during the holiday shopping
Black Friday and Cyber Monday (over 25%
season online shoppers thought they could find
actually prefer to buy after Christmas),
the best prices for an array of different product Retailers competing in the
making it less imperative for retailers to
electronics/computers
categories.
move the majority of their home appliances
For six of the eight product categories listed space have four days
product in that four day period.
in the survey, the largest percentage of online starting Thanksgiving night/
Retailers can use this information in
shoppers claimed they thought the best prices Black Friday morning to
their promotional planning for Black Friday
of the season could be found on Black Friday.
weekend and across the entire holiday
Only for health/beauty products and grocery/ reach at least 60% of their
season. For a category like electronics/
food products did online shoppers believe the target sales for the season
computers, online shopper buying
best prices of the season could be found at a if shopper behaviors align
preferences suggest that retailers should
time other than Black Friday.
run their most aggressive promotions
with their preferences
According to our survey, low prices proved
over the Black Friday weekend. Given
not to be entirely influential in determining when
what we know about their willingness
online shoppers actually prefer to buy these categories. When asked to buy that category online if they find a better price as
at what point during the holiday shopping season they prefer to shown in Figure 6, they need to have the ability to monitor
buy each product category, responses varied from category to their competitors pricing and product assortment within the
category. This study reveals that shoppers are less motivated solely electronics/computers category in the weeks leading up to and
by price in relation to some categories and will forego making the during Black Friday weekend to confirm that they are able to
purchase during the time they believe prices to be lowest. Figure compete. Without this visibility into competitive promotions,
7 shows the rankings—1-7, with 1 being the highest percentage of pricing, and assortment, retailers will be left blind to more
respondents—for when online shoppers most prefer to purchase attractive promotions and prices, and potentially miss out on
each category during the holiday shopping season.
the most preferred period among online shoppers to make their
Only in the electronics/computers category did online
electronics/computers purchases.
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Market Track PerspectiveTM
Timing of top holiday category purchases by online shopper preference
Timing your
category
emphasis
appropriately
can drive
traffic
throughout
the holiday
season.
1= Highest percentage of respondents — 7= Lowest percentage of respondents
Source: Market Track Online Shopper Insight Survey
Figure 7: Preferred time of purchase by category, holiday shopping season
Online shoppers expect early start to HSS
Equally important to timing category promotions in line with
when online shoppers prefer to buy is timing the start of your
holiday promotions in line with online shoppers’ expectations.
Holiday sales seem to start earlier and earlier each year, as
retailers try to engage with shoppers before their competition
and take demand out of the market. According to a survey
conducted by Google in July 2013, about half of the shoppers
surveyed had already made plans for when to purchase their
holiday gifts, and 30% claimed they expected to start their
shopping before Halloween. These are telling statistics as to the
importance of capturing shopper attention well in advance of
the holiday season. Yet, how far in advance of Black Friday should
retailers start their holiday sales? When do shoppers think the
holiday shopping season starts—particularly those shoppers that
regularly make purchases online?
In our recent survey, we asked respondents when they believe
the holiday shopping season starts in hopes of providing our
clients a timeline set by online shoppers themselves for when
retailers and manufacturers should time their holiday sale
promotions. The results showed that 43% of online shoppers believe
the holiday shopping season actually starts the day after Halloween,
or roughly three to four weeks prior to Black Friday, while only 14% said
they thought the shopping season starts on Black Friday.
Projected holiday spend by age group
Target your high value shoppers
Not all shoppers are created equal, and with the
amount of information available to today’s shoppers,
no two promotional strategies should be equal. Trying
to incent a 42 year old male shopper who never
shops online to come to your store on Black Friday
requires a much different promotional approach than
incenting a 25 year old female shopper that makes
multiple purchases per month online. It is important to
understand how your shopper base is segmented, the
tendencies and behaviors of each shopper segment,
and which segment(s) you are targeting with your
promotional strategy.
The figure above shows the distribution of how much online shoppers typically spend during the holiday shopping
season, broken out by age group. Of the online shoppers ages 18-21, about 60% typically spend $500 or less during the
holiday shopping season. At the other end of the spectrum, over 70% of online shoppers ages 30-49 typically spend more
than $500. The gap between these age groups in holiday spend strongly suggests that retailers need to target these age
groups with disparate promotional messages. For instance, if you promote a $500 digital TV, there is a good chance that one
item takes up the entire holiday budget for an online shopper aged 18-21, whereas it may only be a fraction of the budget for
a shopper aged 30-39. Lining up this type of information with demographic promotional preference information, such as in
Figure 3, can increase your chances of the right messages reaching your shoppers.
The Power of Market Intelligence
7
Online shoppers seek deals well before Black Friday
How long before Black Friday do you start looking for holiday deals and promotions?
Roughly 60% of shoppers seek deals 2-3 weeks or longer
before Black Friday
About Market Track
Market Track is a market intelligence firm
dedicated to increasing our customers’
returns on their promotional investments
and providing real-time visibility into
e-commerce pricing. We support our 500+
retail and manufacturer clients through
monitoring and analyzing over 200 U.S.
and Canadian markets for every channel
of trade and 1 billion buy pages from
3,000 global merchants, enabling dynamic
decision making by turning data into
actionable insights.
Key Takeaways
Source: Market Track Online Shopper Insight Survey
•
Figure 8: When do online shoppers seek Black Friday deals?
To further understand how online shoppers perceive the starting point for their own
holiday shopping trips, we also asked respondents when they begin looking for deals
and promotions specifically for the Black Friday event. Nearly 60% claimed that they
start looking for Black Friday promotions at least 2-3 weeks prior to the event, while only
about 20% claimed they start looking for deals a few days before. Historically, retailers
have waited until the beginning of the week of Black Friday at the earliest to push their
promotional deals out to shoppers. This response would suggest that there may be a
misalignment between when online shoppers start looking for Black Friday deals, and
when some retailers run their deals.
Given shopper perception that the holiday shopping season starts well before Black Friday,
there is an opportunity for retailers to engage with shoppers earlier and across multiple
mediums during holiday 2013. The risk of not engaging shoppers early in the season is too
great to ignore, as promotions motive shoppers to change where they shop and what they
buy over 80% of the time as we pointed out in our first Shopper Insights Survey.
Conclusion
Black Friday weekend is one of the few “make-or-break” shopping events of the year. With a
shopper base that is leveraging the vast amount of information and media types available
to them to compare prices and promotions, particularly during key holiday periods, it is
crucial that your promotional plan for both print and digital media is designed to engage
both shoppers that go in-store on Black Friday, and those that take to the web.
We encourage you to leverage the information from this installment of our Shopper
Insight Series to review your plan for the upcoming Black Friday weekend, and ask the
tough questions to see how your plan holds up: Are my promotions compelling enough
to attract online shoppers to my in-store event? Does my product assortment in my Black
Friday circular, home page, email promotions, social media outlets, and mobile promotions
line up with the preferences and buying behaviors of online shoppers? Do my Black Friday
promotions offer choices to shoppers that prefer to only shop in-store or online? Shoppers
ultimately determine whether or not you have a successful Black Friday weekend—
therefore, understanding their preferences, tendencies, and behaviors is paramount in
crafting a successful strategy of how to promote in the weeks leading up to and during
Black Friday weekend.
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The majority of online shoppers that
shop in-store on Black Friday visit only
1 or 2 stores. Your promotional offer
must be compelling enough to not
only compete with other retailers, but
also make you one of the first stops
for online shoppers on Black Friday.
Retailers need to have visibility into
pricing and promotions across all
media types to be confident that their
deals are compelling enough to drive
traffic and win sales.
To avoid missing category sales
projections, retailers should focus on
aligning their promotional calendar
with the timing preferences of
shoppers.
For the electronics/computers
and toys/games/entertainment
categories, there is a high propensity
for online shoppers to forego a
purchase in-store and buy the item
at a discount online. To keep these
purchases in-store, retailers need to
be aware of competitive pricing in
the online space, and have a plan for
countering lower prices consistent
with their overall holiday strategy.
Learn More
For more insight into the entire
promotional landscape or
an analysis of your digital
and print strategies, call
Market Track at 1.800.235.3781
or e-mail
[email protected].
© 2013 Market Track. All rights reserved.