959 Spatial and seasonal variability in cetacean distribution in the fjords of northern Patagonia, Chile Francisco A. Viddi, Rodrigo Hucke-Gaete, Juan P. Torres-Florez, and Sandra Ribeiro Viddi, F. A., Hucke-Gaete, R., Torres-Florez, J. P., and Ribeiro, S. 2010. Spatial and seasonal variability in cetacean distribution in the fjords of northern Patagonia, Chile. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 67: 959 –970. Compared with other Chilean coastal areas, little is known about the diversity and distribution of cetaceans in northern Patagonian fjords. Between December 2000 and November 2001, surveys on platforms of opportunity were undertaken in southern Chile to evaluate species richness and the spatial and seasonal distribution of cetaceans. Nine species were recorded, blue, humpback, and minke whales, Peale’s dolphin, Chilean dolphin, killer whale, false killer whale, bottlenose dolphin, and Cuvier’s beaked whale. The pattern of cetacean distribution displayed significant seasonal differences, with most baleen whales (mysticetes) observed during late summer and autumn, and toothed cetaceans (odontocetes) mostly during spring. Generalized additive models, used to assess the spatial distribution of cetaceans, showed that mysticetes were distributed disproportionately along a north – south gradient, in open gulfs with oceanic influence, and close to shore. In contrast, odontocetes were observed mainly within narrow channels, areas with complex coastal morphology, peaking at different water depths. These findings, although from a single year of data, increase our understanding of habitat determinants of cetacean distribution in southern Chile. The results have the potential to be applied to coastal conservation and management in the region. Keywords: Balaenoptera musculus, Cephalorhynchus eutropia, cetacean distribution, Chilean fjords, generalized additive models, Lagenorhynchus australis, spatial distribution. Received 4 June 2009; accepted 14 November 2009; advance access publication 10 January 2010. F. A. Viddi: Marine Mammal Research Group, Graduate School of the Environment, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia. R. HuckeGaete and J. P. Torres-Florez: Marine Mammal Ecology Laboratory, Centro Ballena Azul, Instituto de Ecologı́a y Evolución, Universidad Austral de Chile, Casilla 567, Valdivia, Chile, and Centro de Investigación en Ecosistemas de la Patagonia, Francisco Bilbao 449, Coihaique, Chile. S. Ribeiro: Instituto Estadual de Meio Ambiente e Recursos Hı́dricos, Projeto corredores Ecológicos, BR 262, Cariacica, Espirito Santo, Brazil. Correspondence to F. A. Viddi: tel: þ61 2 98507980; fax: þ61 2 98507972; e-mail: [email protected]. Introduction Waters off the Chilean coast are recognized as holding some of the greatest biological productivity in the world (Daneri et al., 2000), and the extraordinary productivity appears to be influential in the distribution and abundance of several species, including whales and dolphins. Of the 90 cetacean species described worldwide, almost half have been recorded in Chilean waters (Aguayo-Lobo et al., 1998). Nevertheless, despite this large number of species, little is known about their ecology, especially in the fjord region of southern Chile. The northern Patagonian fjords comprise a complex oceanographic environment (Silva et al., 1997; Silva et al., 1998), and recently became known as a vast estuarine system, where research has focused mainly on oceanography and the fisheries (Pickard, 1971; Balbontin and Bravo, 1993; Silva et al., 1995; Balbontin and Bernal, 1997; Fierro et al., 2000). However, although marine mammals are a conspicuous biological component of the area, their distribution in the fjord region between 41 and 488S has not been described. Most information available in the literature about the diversity and distribution of cetaceans in Chilean waters is derived from whaling data, opportunistic sightings, strandings, updates of distributional ranges, and osteological material, dispersed mostly in # 2010 unpublished technical reports, conference proceedings, and a few scientific publications (Aguayo-Lobo et al., 1998). There seems to be a knowledge gap in northern Patagonian fjords, in particular between Puerto Montt and Golfo de Penas (418300 and 488S). This gap is punctuated by only a few localized systematic studies, mostly on Chilean (Cephalorhynchus eutropia) and Peale’s dolphins (Lagenorhynchus australis; Heinrich, 2006), a rediscovery of a feeding ground of blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus; Hucke-Gaete et al., 2003), and a recent descriptive study of marine mammals in the area (Aguayo-Lobo et al., 2006). Therefore, to our knowledge, no detailed study has been made at the mesoscale regarding the ecological determinants of cetacean distribution in the area. Cetaceans, and mobile animals in general, exploit the environment disproportionately, and their distribution varies temporally and spatially (Samuel et al., 1985; Stevick et al., 2002). Studies have described cetacean distribution and habitat preference by linking their presence to different habitat variables. Most cetacean studies propose that habitat selection and use patterns are principally a function of distribution, movement, and the abundance of prey (Ballance, 1992; Karczmarski et al., 2000; Stevick et al., 2002) and as a means of finding refuge from predators (Heithaus and Dill, 2002). However, the specific environmental conditions International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. Published by Oxford Journals. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: [email protected] 960 F. A. Viddi et al. selected by cetaceans may be proxies for the characteristics of the environment that relate more directly to prey concentrations. Bottom depth, water clarity, sea surface temperature, primary productivity, proximity to estuaries and rivers, bottom type, tidal currents, and/or frontal systems have been used as proxies to assess, describe, and predict cetacean habitat association in studies in the North Atlantic (Gowans and Whitehead, 1995; Hastie et al., 2005), New Zealand (Bräger et al., 2003), the Gulf of Mexico (Baumgartner et al., 2001), the Mediterranean Sea (Cañadas et al., 2005; Panigada et al., 2008), and the North Sea (Mendes et al., 2002; Skov and Thomsen, 2008). Cetaceans are difficult to study because they spend most of their time out of sight beneath the surface and most species live far from shore where direct observations are complex or logistically prohibitive. Such constraints render cetacean research costly in terms of carrying out regular surveys (Lopez et al., 2004; Kiszka et al., 2007). When data collection is required and funding is limited, platforms of opportunity, such as fishing vessels, tourist ships, or cargo ferries, may provide a means of gathering crucial information on cetacean distribution. The routes for such ships are not determined by a research design, but rather by needs such as safer, more efficient, or scenic routes. Therefore, these survey track lines fail to provide equal coverage probability (either systematic or random sampled), and basic statistical design is compromised. Therefore, although the data generated by platforms of opportunity are useful, they should be taken merely as initial insights into cetacean distribution and as important starting points for designing systematic surveys. Considering the need to understand the ecology of many cetacean species and the rapid expansion of coastal development in southern Chile, such as for aquaculture, this study aimed to examine the spatial and seasonal distribution of cetaceans in northern Chilean Patagonia using platforms of opportunity. The information gathered will support the efforts made in terms of developing conservation and management policies at local and national levels and will form a baseline from which future systematic surveys can be designed. sea). In addition, river discharge brings sediments and terrigenous material, which in combination influence the dynamics of coastal circulation (Silva et al., 1998). Material and methods Data analysis with GIS The study was undertaken between 418300 and 488000 S in southern Chile (Figure 1). The area consists of an intricate array of inner passages, archipelagos, channels, and fjords, stretching along ca. 900 km of linear coastline and enclosing 12 000 km of convoluted and protected shoreline. The general oceanographic conditions affecting this area are under the direct influence of the West Wind Drift (WWD). The bulk of the oceanic west-driven currents encounter the South American continent at about latitude 418S, one of the major fjord regions of the world, and the origin of a northbound current characterized by a north-flowing branch, the Humboldt Current, which in turn splits into coastal and oceanic, and a southbound current represented by a poleward-flowing branch, the Cape Horn Current (Longhurst, 1998). The interaction between the WWD, Subantarctic waters, fjord freshwater (coastal run-off from glacier melt, river drainage, and copious precipitation), and tidal currents defines a strong vertical and horizontal salinity gradient (Davila et al., 2002; Palma and Silva, 2004), which in turn supports phytoplankton and primary productivity (Iriarte et al., 2007). Freshwater run-off and glacier meltdown in some areas can cause anomalies in water salinity, density, and temperature inshore (such as in Laguna San Rafael, where glaciers reach the Observation effort was neither spatially nor seasonally distributed evenly, but was only during daylight and when sea and weather conditions permitted. Periods of effort (time spent on active visual survey) were plotted as lines into ArcGIS (version 9.2; Environmental Systems Research Institute, Redlands, CA, USA), from which a raster layer of density of track lines was created. Here, the track density was generated by calculating the total length of track portions that fell within a radius of 5000 m in the neighbourhood of each output raster cell of 1 1 km. Each grid cell would receive a value for density of effort of total distance covered in each cell (metres covered per unit area; Figure 1). These values were used as weights for later analysis to adjust sightings in relation to effort and distance to track line. All geographic data were recorded and downloaded as a Projected Coordinate System WGS 1984 UTM Zone 18S. All sightings were plotted in ArcGIS after correcting for angle and distance. For each sighting, a value of the inverse track density was extracted from GIS (used as weight in data modelling) and used along with physiographic features such as depth, channel width, distance to coast, and coast complexity. Latitude was used as UTM Northing to account for cetacean spatial distribution, given that the ferry route had a north –south– north direction. Data collection Data on cetacean distribution were collected between December 2000 and November 2001. Vessel-based observations were made in the channels and fjords of southern Chile (from Puerto Montt to south of Taitao Peninsula) aboard platforms of opportunity, which included tour and cargo ferries that traverse the fjords on fixed routes. Daily observations were made by 2 –4 observers during 14 cruises on board the MV “Evangelistas” and the MV “Puerto Eden” from the highest vantage points aboard (12 and 10 m, respectively). Trained observers searched for cetaceans 50% by eye and 50% using 7 50 binoculars, covering a strip of 5 km looking ahead to 90o on each side (2.5 km to each side). Search effort was occasionally interrupted while observers attempted to determine species positively. Data on effort included date, start/end time, geographic position (using a hand-held GPS), weather, and sea state (Beaufort scale). Data on cetacean sightings included ship’s position, time, angle and approximate distance to the sighting (using rangefinder reticle binoculars), species, and group size. As the encounter rate was of interest, a precise estimate of distance was not necessary. A cetacean sighting was defined as a single animal, or a group of animals of one species within a radius of 100 m for dolphins or of 1 km for whales (although no association between individuals in a group was inferred). Maximum, minimum, and best estimates of group size were recorded for each sighting. As ferries would not change their routes to approach a sighting, the time spent collecting data relating to a group produced just a species identification and a record of the number of animals. Searching was only performed under Beaufort state 3. Search effort ceased when visibility was too poor, possibly precluding sightings as a consequence of weather conditions, i.e. strong winds, heavy rain, fog, and/or high sea state. Variability in cetacean distribution in northern Patagonian fjords of Chile 961 Figure 1. The study area in southern Chile and the density of the tracks of cargo ferries (areas in darker grey had greater effort in terms of total distance covered per unit area). Raw data for depth (as latitude, longitude, and z-values) were obtained from the Chilean Navy (Servicio Hidrográfico y Oceanográfico de la Armada de Chile), from which a Triangular Irregular Network model was created using three-dimensional analyst in ArcGIS. Width of channel for each sighting was estimated by measuring the distance between the two coastlines, perpendicular to the track line followed by the ferry. For those sightings made outside the inner fjords (along the open coast), an arbitrary value of 140 km for channel width was given, 20 km more than the widest distance measured in the inner passages. Distance to coast and coastline complexity were generated and subsequently extracted for each sighting and absence point in GIS. Coastline complexity is a measure of concentration of islands, convoluted bays, and narrow channels measured as a density of coastline. This variable was calculated by estimating the total length of coastline (in km) falling in 1 km 1 km cell within a searching radius of 10 km (values of zero mean that there was no coast within a radius of 10 km). Finally, to use the actual locations for each sighting and their derived environmental features for statistical analysis, random points were generated using the extension Hawth’s tools for ArcGIS (Beyer, 2004). In all, 170 random points were generated, slightly more than the actual number of sightings (Goetz et al., 2007). These random points then represented an absence of sightings. Each random point was generated taking into consideration survey effort (Torres et al., 2008). For this, an algorithm was used in ArcGIS to create random points considering weightings for track density (i.e. more random points were generated in those 962 areas with greater effort). For each random point generated, all the variables mentioned above were extracted using GIS. Seasonal and spatial analysis In general, data were analysed by pooling data for mysticetes and odontocetes separately. Additional assessments of Chilean and Peale’s dolphins were made because those two species had sufficient sightings for analysis. For seasonal statistical analysis, four seasons were considered: summer (12 December 2000– 27 February 2001), autumn (12 April –17 June 2001), winter (28 July–5 September 2001), and spring (4 October–1 November 2001). A Chi-squared test of independence was used to assess the relationship between cetacean encounter and season. A post hoc Pearson residuals analysis was then carried out for Chi-squared significant values to determine which seasons explained the lack of independence. When sample size was small, a p-value approximation procedure was computed from a Monte Carlo test with 10 000 replicates within the Chi-squared protocol (Hope, 1968). A Chi-squared analysis assumes equal effort among categories, in this case seasons. We adjusted the counts for all taxa and species by estimating the sighting rate per season, then multiplying each seasonal rate by a constant effort of 79. We then rounded the numbers to derive standardized counts. Analyses were carried out in R 2.9.1 (R Development Core Team, 2009). Generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to examine the role of spatial and environmental variables on the sighting locations of cetaceans. GAMs allow a data-driven approach by fitting smoothed non-linear functions of explanatory variables without imposing parametric constraints (Hastie and Tibshirani, 1990). Smoother terms were derived using thin-plate regression splines implemented under the “mgcv” package in R 2.9.2 (Wood, 2006). A binomial distribution (presence/absence) family and a logit link function were used. Presence/absence was used instead of a density value because we decided that there were too few sightings to calculate a density (sightings per area or per time) sufficiently meaningful to develop the models. Working with density values would have required a grid system in which the values for the covariates for each cell in the grid were obtained from the mean values within each cell, so losing covariate detail with the spatial scale of some channels. Backward selection, beginning from a fully saturated model, was used to obtain the best-fitting models based on their generalized cross-validation scores (GCV). The GCV can be viewed as the criterion that selects the effective degrees of freedom of a model where the scale parameter is unknown and is therefore estimated by the model. The GCV operates by performing smoothing parameter selection wherein the GCV essentially finds an appropriate smoother for each covariate (Wood, 2006). A lower GCV score indicates a better-fitting GAM. GCV is known to tend to overfit on occasions, so a gamma of 1.4 was specified, effectively correcting the overfit without compromising model fit (Kim and Gu, 2004; Wood, 2006). Additionally, because the scale parameter is unknown and the data likely to be overdispersed, the “gam” function was forced to estimate the scale parameter by specifying the scale as 21 (Wood, 2006). From the initial full model, the covariate with the highest nonsignificant p-value was removed and refitted to the reduced model. If that model resulted in a lower GCV score, it was retained and again the covariate with the highest p-value was removed. The procedure was repeated until the removal of any covariate resulted in F. A. Viddi et al. a higher GCV score. If at any stage removing the least significant covariate resulted in an increased GCV score, then the next least significant term was removed, etc., until no further reduction in GCV could be obtained. Diagnostic plots were also made to determine the fit effectiveness of the models (Wood, 2006). If the model reduced the smoothing spline to an estimated degree of freedom approximating to 1 and there was no apparent pattern in the residuals, then the smoother function was replaced by a linear term. A weight vector was included in the model process, corresponding to the inverse value of density of the survey track lines. This vector was included in the GAMs to account for the different effort made at spatial scales, noting that models not including effort data are one of the major factors causing erroneous analysis in cetacean literature (Redfern et al., 2006). Four models were built, for five predictive variables. The first two described the global spatial distribution of mysticetes and odontocetes over the whole year, and the other two highlighted specific habitats of Peale’s and Chilean dolphins. We chose GAMs because they generate smoothed curves representing the relationship between the response and each predictor variable in the model. GAMs are particularly good at identifying and describing non-linear relationships that are more typical than linear relationships in ecology (Oksanen and Minchin, 2002). Results The overall observation effort was 315 h (during 47 days and 14 ferry cruises) accomplished during the four seasons, representing almost 8000 km of coverage. There were 129 cetacean sightings (Figure 2), comprising nine different cetacean species, along the channels and fjords south of Puerto Montt. There were three species of baleen whale, blue (B. musculus), humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae), and minke (Balaenoptera bonaerensis), and six of odontocete, Peale’s dolphin (L. australis), Chilean dolphin (C. eutropia), killer whale (Orcinus orca), false killer whale (Pseudorca crassidens), bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus), and Cuvier’s beaked whale (Ziphius cavirostris). Peale’s dolphin was by far the most frequently observed, followed by the Chilean dolphin. Bottlenose dolphins were, however, the most abundant cetacean owing to the large size of the groups observed (Table 1). Seasonal and spatial distribution Seasonally, the pattern of cetacean distribution was significantly different in each season (x2 ¼ 37.05, p , 0.001). Mysticetes were mostly recorded during autumn and never in winter (x2 ¼ 33.38, p , 0.001), whereas odontocetes were observed more often during spring and less frequently during summer (x2 ¼ 18, d.f. ¼ 3, p , 0.001; Figure 3). Peale’s dolphins showed a significant seasonal pattern (x2 ¼ 14.59, d.f. ¼ 3, p ¼ 0.002), with more sightings in spring, whereas Chilean dolphins had no seasonal pattern, with a similar sighting distribution during all seasons (x2 ¼ 1.29, p ¼ 0.756; Table 2). The GAM revealed that the overall spatial distribution of mysticetes was not even, with peaks in the number of sightings along a north –south gradient. The models also retained two other spatial covariates among the five tested: width of channel and distance to the coast. Overall, the best model for mysticete data explained 58.9% of the deviance (Table 3). Baleen whales selected areas of wide channels and close to the shore (Figure 4). The GAM results for odontocete presence indicated that the best model included the effect of coast complexity (as a linear Variability in cetacean distribution in northern Patagonian fjords of Chile 963 Figure 2. Cetacean distribution in the northern Patagonian fjords, southern Chile. (a) Mysticetes and (b) odontocetes. Table 1. Summary of cetacean species, number of sightings, number of animals, and group size average and range observed during 14 surveys between December 2000 and November 2001. Group size Cetacean Peale’s dolphin Chilean dolphin Bottlenose dolphin Killer whale False killer whale Blue whale Humpback whale Minke whale Cuvier’s beaked whale Unidentified mysticetes Unidentified odontocetes All species Number of sightings 42 32 8 Number of animals 182 109 273 Average 4.3 3.3 34.1 4 2 7 6 5 1 8 10 14 17 7 1 2 5 2 2.8 1.4 – 10 13 – – 12 35 – – 129 669 – – Range 1 –15 1 –15 4– 100 1 –3 3 –7 1 –3 1 –5 1 –3 – term), UTM Northing, distance to coast, and depth, and explained 48.8% of the deviance (Table 3). Odontocetes in general had a stratified distribution along the north –south gradient, with peaks of sightings at different latitudes. They identified areas closer to Figure 3. Seasonal sighting rate and effort for cetaceans in the northern Patagonian fjords, southern Chile, for all taxa pooled, for odontocetes, and for mysticetes. shore, depths .200 m, and areas with complex coastal morphology (Figure 5). Peale’s dolphins showed a non-linear relationship with water depth, peaking at depths of 50, 250, and 400 m. They were also more frequent in areas with high coastal complexity and with uneven distribution along the north –south gradient (Figure 6). Overall, the best model explained 59.4% of the deviance. For Chilean dolphins, the model retained just depth and distance to the coast as linear terms, and explained 64.6% 964 F. A. Viddi et al. of the deviance (Table 3). Chilean dolphins were mostly found near the shore in shallow water (Figure 7). Discussion Before this study, little was known about the species richness and distribution of cetaceans in the fjords and inner seas of northern Patagonia, Chile. During the systematic assessment described here, nine species were recorded in 1000 km of linear surveys south of Puerto Montt (between 418300 and 488000 S). Although all species sighted during the study have been reported previously for Chilean waters, no sightings for this particular study area had been documented for false killer whales and Cuvier’s beaked whales. Those two species, along with killer whales, were the least frequent of the species recorded in the Table 2. Post hoc Pearson’s residuals from Chi-squared analysis for cetacean sightings by season. Season Summer Autumn Winter Spring Mysticetes 20.981 4.903 22.550 21.373 Odontocetes 22.263 21.720 0.996 2.988 Peale’s dolphin 22.313 20.953 0.408 2.858 Chilean dolphin 20.514 20.514 0.857 0.171 High negative and positive values indicate degrees of negative or positive association, respectively. study area. Capella et al. (1999) suggested that killer whales might be rare along the Chilean coast. Nevertheless, more systematic studies covering a larger temporal and spatial range need to be developed, because several new records have been documented (FAV, unpublished data). Consistent with earlier reports, Peale’s dolphins appear to be the most common cetacean in the area (33% of the sightings), followed by Chilean dolphins (25% of the sightings) (Goodall et al., 1988, 1997a; Goodall, 1994). Nevertheless, bottlenose dolphins were the most gregarious and the most numerous cetacean observed, representing 40% of the total number of animals recorded. The Moraleda channel and associated fjords and channels, especially those close to the Aysen fjord, seem to be a hotspot for odontocetes because all toothed cetaceans recorded during this study were sighted there. Compared with other fjord systems in the world, the number of species observed here is comparable with results from BC, Canada (Williams and Thomas, 2007), and Fjordland, New Zealand (Lusseau and Slooten, 2002), where seven and nine species have been reported, respectively. However, the greater systematic effort, both temporally and spatially, allocated by those authors contrast with our 1-year surveys on platforms of opportunity. Williams and Thomas (2007) developed systematic stratified surveys covering a great proportion of the fjord area of British Columbia, and Lusseau and Slooten (2002) used sightings data from tourist operators from 1996 to 1999. Hence, we believe that Table 3. Results of GAMs for cetacean sightings in Chile’s northern Patagonian fjords, including the covariates selected by the models. Taxon and parameter Mysticetes Intercept Smoother terms UTM Northing Channel width Distance to coast Best final model Odontocetes Intercept Smoother terms UTM Northing Distance to coast Depth Linear term Coast complexity Best final model Peale’s dolphin Intercept Smoother terms UTM Northing Depth Coast complexity Best final model Chilean dolphin Intercept Linear terms Distance to coast Depth Best final model Estimate e.d.f. 28.74 s.e. t-value 3.73 22.34 F-value p-value Deviance explained (%) r2 GCV score n 58.9 0.91 2.49 201 48.8 0.81 2.27 266 59.4 0.89 1.85 141 64.6 0.76 0.69 181 0.020 5.18 3.31 ,0.001 8.03 4.69 ,0.001 2.23 9.98 ,0.001 Myss(UTM Northing) þ s(channel width) þ s(distance to coast) 22.71 0.73 23.7 8.86 4.40 2.54 ,0.001 6.85 4.6 6.91 ,0.001 ,0.001 ,0.001 13.39 2.95 0.004 Odos(UTM Northing) þ s(distance to coast) þ s(depth) þ coast complexity 21.32 0.36 23.70 7.6 2.89 6.99 3.89 1.44 5.12 L.a.s(UTM Northing) þ s(depth) þ s(coast complexity) 2.60 0.37 20.001 20.06 C.e.distance to coast þ depth ,0.001 0.005 0.001 0.008 7.08 ,0.001 23.74 25.50 ,0.001 ,0.001 Mys, Mysticete; Odo, Odontocete; L.a., Peale’s dolphin; C.e., Chilean dolphin; e.d.f., effective degrees of freedom. Variability in cetacean distribution in northern Patagonian fjords of Chile 965 Figure 4. GAM-predicted smooth splines of the response variable presence/absence of mysticetes as a function of the explanatory variables UTM Northing, distance to the coast, and channel width. The degrees of freedom for non-linear fits are in parenthesis on the y-axis. Tick marks above the x-axis indicate the distribution of observations (with and without sightings). Dotted lines represent the 95% confidence intervals of the smooth spline functions. with increased spatial and temporal systematic survey coverage within our region, other species might be sighted, especially those known to frequent the area. These include Commerson’s dolphins (Cephalorhynchus commersonii; Capella and Gibbons, 1991), dusky dolphins (Lagenorhynchus obscurus; Pitman and Balance, 1995), Burmeister’s porpoises (Phocoena spinipinnis; Heinrich, 2006), and sei whales (Balaenoptera borealis; RH-G, unpublished data). Spatial and seasonal distribution of mysticetes Baleen whale species registered in this study were mostly observed during autumn, in open areas (wide channels) close to shore. Although most baleen whales were observed in the open sea, there is evidence that whales transit through narrow channels in the southern part of the study area not covered by ferries, especially blue and humpback whales, as reported by Hucke-Gaete (2004). Although many studies on baleen whales show some type of association with water depth (Williams et al., 2006; Ingram et al., 2007; Panigada et al., 2008), the whales in our study did not show any relationship with this particular variable. Although both blue and humpback whales were sighted at practically the same frequency, blue whales are more common in the Chiloe–Corcovado Gulf (Hucke-Gaete et al., 2003). The seasonal and spatial distribution of whales, in particular in the Corcovado Gulf, might be explained by the seasonal contrast between high levels of primary productivity (phytoplankton) reported during spring and summer compared with those of winter (Hucke-Gaete, 2004; Delgado and Marin, 2006), particularly that observed in 2001 (Iriarte et al., 2007). Mesoscale physical processes such as eddies, fronts, and plumes would enhance the collection and retention of phytoplankton within the area (Hucke-Gaete, 2004). These seasonal phytoplankton blooms in turn favour lagged formation of large zooplankton swarms (secondary production), such as krill, the essential food of several larger species, particularly blue whales, during late summer and autumn. In fact, Chile’s austral region south of 418S is one of the planet’s most complex systems of fjords and channels, constituting some of the largest estuarine systems of the world and characterized by high levels of habitat heterogeneity, biodiversity, and productivity (Silva et al., 1998; Davila et al., 2002; Palma and Silva, 2004). Indeed, mesoscale oceanographic conditions, especially those with cyclic temporal patterns, seem to be a major factor in whale distribution in southern Chile. Certainly, primary productivity, tidal fronts, and other oceanographic features are crucial in producing the predictable high concentrations of prey that shape the seasonal movement and habitat use patterns for many whale species (Davis et al., 2002; Croll et al., 2005; Johnston et al., 2005; Donoil-Valcroze et al., 2007). However, this is not a general pattern for all whales. Fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus), for example, are resident year-round in Baja California because of the persistent high productivity there. Spatial and seasonal distribution of odontocetes Most odontocete sightings were made during spring and least during summer, particularly so for Peale’s dolphins. However, 966 F. A. Viddi et al. Figure 5. GAM-predicted smooth splines of the response variable presence/absence of odontocetes as a function of the explanatory variables UTM Northing, distance to the coast, depth, and coast complexity (as linear predictor). The degrees of freedom for non-linear fits are in parenthesis on the y-axis. Tick marks above the x-axis indicate the distribution of observations (with and without sightings). Dotted lines represent the 95% confidence intervals of the smooth spline functions. no evidence of seasonal migration has been found for that species. Chilean dolphin sightings, on the other hand, revealed no seasonal variation, suggesting year-round residence at least to some extent in the area surveyed, consistent with the findings of Heinrich (2006) for Chilean dolphins in southern Chiloe Island. However, this is not a general pattern for all species of Cephalorhynchus, because Hector’s dolphin (C. hectori) is known to show seasonal shifts in the patterns of movement and distribution in New Zealand (Dawson and Slooten, 1988). In general, odontocete distribution was stratified along a north– south gradient, with different patterns of distance to shore, and a preference for shallow water and depths of .200 m. These patterns probably result from pooling the data from all toothed cetaceans. Looking in detail at the distribution of the most common dolphin species in our area, Peale’s dolphins did show a spatial pattern, driven by latitudinal stratification, with different depths seemingly preferred in different areas. Peale’s dolphins also selected areas of coastal complexity, perhaps preferring those habitats with a more convoluted and protected shoreline, as well as a high density of islands and channels. Peale’s dolphins were found both close and far from shore, a flexibility also documented by others (Goodall et al., 1997a). This is probably one of the major differences between Peale’s and Chilean dolphins, with the latter preferring to be close to shore and in shallow water, confirming the results of other work which showed that these dolphins are seldom found far from shore or in deep water (Goodall et al., 1988; Goodall, 1994; Heinrich, 2006; Ribeiro et al., 2007). It seems reasonable to suggest, therefore, that water depth might be the factor limiting the inshore distribution of Chilean dolphins, showing less plasticity than for other small cetaceans such as the sympatric Peale’s dolphin. Indeed, depth has been given as the limiting factor for many small cetaceans (Bejder and Dawson, 2000; Karczmarski et al., 2000; Allen et al., 2001; Bräger et al., 2003). Our results suggest some segregation between Chilean and Peale’s dolphins, in particular as a response to depth. Segregation patterns between the two species have also been documented by Heinrich (2006) at Chiloe Island. In all the areas surveyed, Chilean dolphins were observed yearround in Laguna San Rafael, highlighting the importance of that glacier-influenced marine ecosystem to the species. In fact, freshwater run-offs, including estuaries, rivers, and creeks, appear to be important to Chilean dolphins (Goodall, 1994; Heinrich, 2006; Perez-Alvarez et al., 2007; Ribeiro et al., 2007). Until now, freshwater run-off has not been regarded as an important factor for Peale’s dolphin habitat preference (Heinrich, 2006). Its selection of inshore waters may relate to the presence of kelp beds (Macrocystis pyrifera), habitats they exploit heavily, and mainly found in the Magellan Strait and off Argentina (de Haro and Iñiguez, 1997; Goodall et al., 1997a, b; Lescrauwaet, 1997; Schiavini et al., 1997; Viddi and Lescrauwaet, 2005). Although Peale’s dolphins have been sighted opportunistically in deep water far from shore (Goodall et al., 1997a), we sighted them frequently in such waters. We suggest three possible ecological explanations for this that need to be tested in future studies. First, they may opportunistically exploit offshore habitats; second, they may Variability in cetacean distribution in northern Patagonian fjords of Chile 967 Figure 6. GAM-predicted smooth splines of the response variable presence/absence of Peale’s dolphins as a function of the explanatory variables UTM Northing, depth, and coast complexity. The degrees of freedom for non-linear fits are in parenthesis on the y-axis. Tick marks above the x-axis indicate the distribution of observations (with and without sightings). Dotted lines represent the 95% confidence intervals of the smooth spline functions. Figure 7. GAM-predicted smooth splines of the response variable presence/absence of Chilean dolphins as a function of the explanatory variables depth and distance to coast (both as linear terms). Tick marks above the x-axis indicate the distribution of observations (with and without sightings). Dotted lines represent the 95% confidence intervals of the smooth spline functions. have an offshore ecotype restricted to deeper water; third, they may cross deep water while migrating, e.g. the Moraleda Channel or the Corcovado Gulf. Final considerations The association between cetacean distribution patterns and environmental features of the habitats in which they live has been the focus of many studies (Gowans and Whitehead, 1995; Cañadas et al., 2005; Ferguson et al., 2006; Panigada et al., 2008). Modelling animal distributions is a valuable tool for conservation, in particular in terms of predictive power. Assuming that the distribution of cetaceans is non-random relative to environmental variability, models of cetacean distribution can identify ecological relationships between the environment and species habitat selection (Torres et al., 2008). In this study, models were used as an explanatory tool and as a step towards determining 968 the features that drive the process of cetacean distribution. Abiotic variables may be correlated with the distribution of cetaceans, but such variables often have little direct influence on the actual selection of habitats by the animals. In reality, abiotic features are proxies for prey distribution. Although determining cetacean distribution is essential and indeed critical for crafting and proposing conservation policies, collecting the data at sea presents many logistic and financial challenges, in particular in finding suitable seagoing vessels for data collection (Ingram et al., 2007). Using platforms of opportunity raises the possibility of collecting data at sea with minor cost. Nevertheless, the data obtained from such studies have definite flaws, because of the trade-offs of control over study design, the non-standardized sampling effort, the limited field time, and the restrictions of the sampling techniques (Marques, 2001; Williams et al., 2006; Ingram et al., 2007). Our data were obtained from non-random surveys on commercial tourist and cargo ferries, but they gave us a cost-effective opportunity to model cetacean distribution in southern Chile. However, although we gained important insights into the ecology of many cetacean species in the area, the conclusions derived need to be read with caution. The use of platforms of opportunity may provide scientists a means of collecting data on a wide range of marine fauna when research funding is limited (Ingram et al., 2007), but such surveys cannot replace appropriately designed ones. Ferries may have uniform, regular, indeed unchangeable routes, but they do not have equal area coverage, so many habitat types can be overlooked and omitted from modelling assessments. Although marine mammals are found widely across the marine realm, their distribution is patchy, and some areas are more frequently occupied than others. Those preferred areas are most likely to be important for their survival and reproduction, and perturbations to them will certainly influence the distribution and abundance of affected species (Harwood, 2001). The richness of the cetacean fauna in the study area, together with the distribution patterns, are important signs of the potential ecological role these animals may be playing in this fragile marine ecosystem. The seasonal variation in whale sightings is an indication of the high spatial and temporal variability in the physical and biological oceanography of the Chilean fjord system. Although predator avoidance, interspecific competition, and reproductive strategies all play a key role in cetacean distribution to some extent, energy budget studies indicate that most cetaceans feed every day or on a highly regular basis (Smith and Gaskin, 1974), so habitat preference is assumed to be determined primarily by food availability (Stevick et al., 2002). Consequently, the spatial and seasonal distribution of the species documented here is most likely linked to dynamic oceanographic variables through physicobiological interactions and trophic relationships, from primary productivity (phytoplankton) to the prey species of the cetaceans. A better understanding of the habitat preferences, and the biological and physical variables associated with these processes, will improve management and conservation efforts by providing a context for interpreting present and future anthropogenic effects on cetacean populations and their distribution. Although the northern Patagonian fjord system is effectively uninhabited, it is increasingly being exploited by aquaculture, fisheries, and associated maritime traffic. Studies have shown that these anthropogenic activities have negative impacts on marine mammals (Sullivan Sealey and Bustamante, 1999; Würsig and F. A. Viddi et al. Gailey, 2002; Hucke-Gaete et al., 2004; Ribeiro et al., 2005; Heinrich, 2006; Ribeiro et al., 2007). For that reason, we strongly support systematic studies in the Patagonian fjord system, which include an assessment of cetacean distribution and abundance in relation to their environment. Additionally, Wiens (1989) suggested that studies across broad geographic areas are likely to overlook important fine-scale details that account for the dynamics of local populations. Hence, such fine-scale studies need also be developed to gain more insight of animal response to changes in the environment at that small scale. The information generated from this study provides a step towards understanding the ecology of cetacean species in the fjords of southern Chile. It also has significant implications for conservation initiatives, because our data strengthen the ongoing efforts to propose a marine protected area in the region (Hucke-Gaete et al., 2006). Acknowledgements We are grateful to the Society for Marine Mammalogy and the Navimag Company for financial and logistical support and to Servicio Hidrográfico y Oceanográfico de la Armada de Chile (Chilean Navy) for supporting our work by providing bathymetric data. We also thank Don Ljunblad for generously contributing equipment, and the following colleagues and volunteers for continuous and dedicated assistance: Karin Acuña, Elizabeth Campos, Victor Castillo, Carla Christie, Verónica Garrido, Alejandra Henny, Don Ljunjblad, Cristian Peralta, Barbara Pijanowski, and Maria Paz Villalobos. The project was developed while RH-G held a Doctoral scholarship from the Comisión Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologı́a (CONICYT). We also thank the captains and crews of the ferries MV “Evangelistas” and MV “Puerto Eden”. Rob Harcourt, Iain Field, Panayiota Apostolaki, Ryan Portner, and two anonymous reviewers gave helpful comments and suggestions on earlier drafts of this manuscript. 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