Examiners’ commentaries 2016 Examiners’ commentaries 2016 IR1034 World history since 1945 Important note This commentary reflects the examination and assessment arrangements for this course in the academic year 2015–16. The format and structure of the examination may change in future years, and any such changes will be publicised on the virtual learning environment (VLE). Information about the subject guide and the Essential reading references Unless otherwise stated, all cross-references will be to the latest version of the subject guide (2012). You should always attempt to use the most recent edition of any Essential reading textbook, even if the commentary and/or online reading list and/or subject guide refers to an earlier edition. If different editions of Essential reading are listed, please check the VLE for reading supplements – if none are available, please use the contents list and index of the new edition to find the relevant section. General remarks Learning outcomes At the end of this course and having completed the Essential reading and activities, you should be able to: • analyse the nature and significance of the Cold war international system • explain how the Cold war originated and how and why it ended • describe how Cold war international crises were perceived and responded to, particularly by the USA, in various parts of the world • relate local and regional aspects of particular conflicts to the broader international aspects of the Cold war which influenced them • analyse what influenced states and their rulers as they sought to expand their power and influence and deal with threats to their interests • become aware of the elements of the Cold war international system that were connected to the post-Cold war era. Studying history History needs to be seen as a key subject in promoting an understanding of the world and, most importantly, in encouraging the development of an ability to think. This is important in life after university as most jobs will require decisions and judgements rather then specific detailed knowledge of any academic non-vocational subject. You should look on this course less as a means of amassing information and more as a means of learning to think about the world more effectively. Hence whereas teaching predominates over learning in schools, in institutes of higher education facilitating learning is more important than teaching as preparation for 1 IR1034 World history since 1945 the world of work. History, because there are no right or wrong answers in themselves, is particularly important for learning how to think as opposed to being taught what others have written. As a result, in this course you will achieve the best results by thinking about the implications of what you read (for other ideas and interpretations, and in the examination connecting them to the question) more than simply being able to understand and repeat what you read. Reading The key to any university subject is reading, particularly for International Programmes candidates now that more material is available online. Developing an ability to read effectively is crucial in the learning process, and the provision of the subject guide is only a small part of this learning. The ability to take notes from reading effectively is also important. In 2016 there was a significant increase in scripts achieving the best marks which indicated that more candidates were taking advice and reading more widely than just the Essential reading in the initial stage of the learning process. IR1034 World history since 1945 It is vital that you engage as much as possible with the learning experience and accustom yourself, when reading, to asking the sort of questions outlined in the subject guide. These skills are more difficult to acquire without regular input or without access to the expression of different ideas and interpretations, but certain guidelines are important here. • If you take a look at a book recommended as Essential or Further reading, do not expect knowledge to enter your mind automatically. If you are reading without thinking and without asking yourself questions you will gain much less. • Do not worry about what you might miss. Nobody knows everything. The issue is whether you will be able to think about important issues and make the most of the information you have, however small it might seem at the start of your studies. • You must ask yourself what it is you want to get from a book (namely, what it is that you need to understand or find out about). The quality of your input and the questions of a thoughtful and inquisitive intellect are crucial to maximising the benefit of what you get out of this course. • Some general questions (for example, the causes and consequences of particular events) are important and common sense should make some of them obvious. • In your reading you must always think in historical terms about the implications of facts and information. You should never simply memorise the facts and information themselves. • You should be aware that different questions may require different parts of different books and that there are no short texts which can provide you with just the most important information. • Part of the learning process is learning how to approach and develop the learning experience, which means more than reading what you are told. • The broader the coverage in terms of chronology and geographical area, the less specific information and analysis will be provided in terms of particular topics and countries. Hence in a course as broad as 2 Examiners’ commentaries 2016 this it is important to try and read more detailed works if you want to obtain more specific knowledge. • Single chapters of books rarely provide definitive answers nor what can be sensibly regarded as essential reading in such a vast subject. • Reading and learning should be regarded as lifelong processes, which never end at any particular level or sum of knowledge. • In a vast subject like world history it is never a question of being able to reduce material to small and manageable packages which must be absorbed in order to conclude the learning process. You are engaged in a process, the outcomes of which only provide a foothold on the ladder of learning how to deal with information and evaluate its implications. And the process is never-ending as everyone, however knowledgeable, at whatever level, has more to learn. In the last four years, the examiners have seen an increase in the awareness of those taking the examination of the need in this course to read more extensively and think about what is being read. This year has also seen another increase in the best answers which have achieved first class marks. Thus there is a growing realisation that learning at this level requires not simply understanding what has been read but the ability to think about its implications and relevance to the particular questions. Key points Argument Answers to historical questions require a clear and concise argument. Hence it is important and easiest to decide initially what your argument should be. That means, for example, in questions which ask ‘why’, determining which reasons primarily, but not exclusively, were the more important. Having a clear view of what you should be arguing can be very important in ensuring that you answer the question coherently and effectively. Interpretation History is all about interpreting the evidence to provide a particular explanation. No interpretation is correct or incorrect and academics have strong disagreements about the interpretation of events. You are tested not on what you know but on how you can use what you know in providing a coherent argument with the effective use of evidence in answering the particular question. Judgement As in the real world, your own judgements will often be crucial. The emphasis on your judgements and your input forms one key difference between school and university. At school, everything is packaged so that you can be taught a finite amount of material and a fixed interpretation. At university, you get guidance to assist you in thinking so that you can learn to make judgements on what is important and how it should be interpreted. This is a process of thinking that has to be carried out in many jobs and successful careers where your input and ability is important. A lifelong learning process which is infinite cannot be simply packaged into specific things which ‘have to be done’. You will become better acquainted with the learning process, especially with learning to ‘think’ by studying a course like this. 3 IR1034 World history since 1945 Yet, as with all such study, reading and thinking about the consequences of what you read and the significance of the author’s interpretation for other interpretations, and for your own understanding, is always crucial. Points to avoid When you set out to learn a topic (for example, the ‘breakdown of the Grand Alliance 1944–46’) you need to be aware that the question will require you to exclude points about the Cold war that are not relevant to the specific focus on that particular question and the approach it requires in the time period on which it is focused. Avoid simply describing what happened or writing ‘all you know’ about that topic without focusing on the particular question. Examiners will usually penalise candidates who have memorised information about a particular topic but are unable to differentiate between what is needed in one particular question from the information that is not needed because it is not relevant to that question. You will therefore need to ensure that your answer does not include events outside the particular time period mentioned in the question. How to approach reading for this subject As learning through reading is never ending, different approaches to books form the different stages of the educational process. Some books, as at school, simply provide limited information and analysis of small, self-contained topics. At university you encounter others which are useful because they provide a lot of analysis and information that is not limited to a single important aspect or compartmentalised in particular selfcontained chapters, for example: Osgood, K.A. Total Cold war: Eisenhower’s secret propaganda battle at home and abroad. (Lawrence, KS: University Press of Kansas, 2008) [ISBN 9780700615902]. All such books might contain information relevant to a number of issues which have not been separated into particular packages of knowledge. In other words, they may contain material of less relevance to a specific question on a particular theme or topic, however closely associated with another specific question on that topic they might be. Such works could also provide analysis useful for understanding aspects of a closely associated topic. The reader therefore has to prioritise and sort out the most relevant information and analyse, within several chapters, which is important for a particular topic or specific question. Acquiring the skills to do that and to read different material in different ways used to be a key part of a university learning experience and remains an important attribute to have when entering the world of work. In part, this skill will flow from the ability to ask questions and consider the implications of what is read in books by, for example, connecting it to interpretations in other works. It is thus a more advanced form of study from simply being able to understand what is selected for you to read. Note that when whole books are referred to here they generally provide opportunities to develop these more advanced skills. 4 Examiners’ commentaries 2016 Examination revision strategy Many candidates are disappointed to find that their examination performance is poorer than they expected. This may be due to a number of reasons. The Examiners’ commentaries suggest ways of addressing common problems and improving your performance. One particular failing is ‘question spotting’, that is, confining your examination preparation to a few questions and/or topics which have come up in past papers for the course. This can have serious consequences. We recognise that candidates may not cover all topics in the syllabus in the same depth, but you need to be aware that examiners are free to set questions on any aspect of the syllabus. This means that you need to study enough of the syllabus to enable you to answer the required number of examination questions. The syllabus can be found in the Course information sheet in the section of the VLE dedicated to each course. You should read the syllabus carefully and ensure that you cover sufficient material in preparation for the examination. Examiners will vary the topics and questions from year to year and may well set questions that have not appeared in past papers. Examination papers may legitimately include questions on any topic in the syllabus. So, although past papers can be helpful during your revision, you cannot assume that topics or specific questions that have come up in past examinations will occur again. If you rely on a question-spotting strategy, it is likely you will find yourself in difficulties when you sit the examination. We strongly advise you not to adopt this strategy. 5 IR1034 World history since 1945 Examiners’ commentaries 2016 IR1034 World history since 1945 – Zone A Important note This commentary reflects the examination and assessment arrangements for this course in the academic year 2015–16. The format and structure of the examination may change in future years, and any such changes will be publicised on the virtual learning environment (VLE). Information about the subject guide and the Essential reading references Unless otherwise stated, all cross-references will be to the latest version of the subject guide (2012). You should always attempt to use the most recent edition of any Essential reading textbook, even if the commentary and/or online reading list and/or subject guide refers to an earlier edition. If different editions of Essential reading are listed, please check the VLE for reading supplements – if none are available, please use the contents list and index of the new edition to find the relevant section. Comments on specific questions Candidates should answer THREE of the following EIGHTEEN questions. All questions carry equal marks. Question 1 Why were the Allied plans to maintain cooperation in the post-war world impossible to realise between 1944 and 1946? Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.13–19 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Young, J.W. and J. Kent International relations since 1945: a global history. (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013) second edition [ISBN 9780199693061] Chapters 1A, 1B, 1C and 1D. Approaching the question 6 Good answers will be based on sound and detailed knowledge of the plans the Allies put forward in the conferences of 1944 and 1945. You will use this to highlight what the plans aimed to achieve, and identify which aims were more significant along with explaining why they were so. The aims analysed will need to be both general and specific with the analysis indicating that as the aims changed in 1944 and 1945 they came, increasingly, to embody specific interests while explaining why these specific interests had to be protected in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and East Asia as well as in Germany. The best answers will be able to demonstrate how, as 1945 progressed, the attempts to achieve the desired general aims were difficult to reconcile with specific interests and how and why their successful implementation proved increasingly difficult. Examiners’ commentaries 2016 Question 2 Was the failure of the wartime allies to agree on the nature of post-war economic reconstruction by 1948 the main reason for the development of the Cold war after December 1946? Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.22–26 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Young and Kent (2013) Chapters 1D and 1E. Approaching the question The best answers to this question will focus on the various attempts made after December 1946 to maintain wartime cooperation and why they failed. It will be necessary to explain the relationship between the economic problems that were at issue in Europe – namely the need to ensure economic recovery in West Germany occurred in order that it could contribute to European recovery by increasing the level of industrial production in the Ruhr in particular. The Marshall Plan for European Recovery was the culmination of the Western efforts to ensure that economic recovery occurred. The analysis must show how the political requirement to prevent the spread of communism clashed with the need for Stalin to prevent the threat of a revived and economically powerful Germany and were closely connected to the economic issues of reconstruction. Question 3 After 1948 ‘there never was a policy of containment except for public consumption’. How far was this an accurate assessment by a US official? Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.29–32 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Young and Kent (2013) Chapters 1A and 1B. Corke, S., ‘Bridging the Gap: Containment, Covert Action and the Search for the Missing Link in American Cold war Policy, 1948–1953’, Journal of Strategic Studies, 20, (4) (December 1997). Corke S. ‘History, Historians and the Naming of Foreign Policy: A PostModern Reflection on American Strategic Thinking during the Truman Administration’ Intelligence and National Security 16, 3 (2001). Approaching the question In order to produce a high quality answer to this question, knowledge of how the strategy of containment developed from George Kennan’s Long Telegram in February 1946 will be required. That will have to involve explaining what it was that Kennan hoped to contain. Was it Soviet military expansion or the expansion of communist ideology that needed to be contained and how could this be done? Attention will also have to be given to the emergence of a more assertive and aggressive US strategy to weaken the appeal of Soviet inspired communism by 1948. The final analysis should focus on the reasons for the development of a US Cold war strategy in terms of containment or of a more pro-active policy of undermining the Soviet Union or Soviet communism with more assertive policies. A comparative analysis should be made of whether that policy 7 IR1034 World history since 1945 was designed more to produce the destruction of communism and unite the West behind the values of capitalism and democracy than to contain it by focussing on what would be best to spin for the Western public. Question 4 ‘The establishment of NATO in 1949 was to prevent the ideological spread of communism and was thus irrelevant for the military defence of western Europe’ Discuss Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.26–27 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Young and Kent (2013) Chapters 4A and 4B. Approaching the question A good answer to this question will be based on a detailed knowledge of the process by which NATO was established, beginning with the Pentagon talks in 1948. The negotiations took place at the same time as the first military emergency plans were drawn up in both Washington and London on how to deal with a war against the Soviet Union which would require a military strategy for the use of existing Western forces on the continent of Europe. A description of this and an analysis of what that meant for what should be, or could not be, defended, has to be accompanied by some discussion of the political and economic aspects of Western European society (in other words the political and economic values of capitalist democratic societies that had to be defended in ideological rather than military terms). Question 5 Did nuclear weapons only become relevant to the Cold war after the Soviets acquired the H bomb in 1953? Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.41–43 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Young and Kent (2013) Chapters 5B, 5C and 7A. Approaching the question Good answers to this question will depend on, and develop from, an awareness of the important distinction between the dominance of the ideological requirements that characterise the fighting of the Cold war and the military requirements essential for the preparations to fight a hot war. Once the argument has been decided upon, you will need to explain the planned use of atomic weapons in any hot war by the Western militaries, even as in the 1940s civilian strategists were producing deterrence theories. The impact of the massively greater destructive power of H bombs must then be described and analysed in terms of their effect on the post-1953 developments of military plans to fight wars with nuclear weapons at the same time as new and different concepts of deterrence strategies were formulated 8 Examiners’ commentaries 2016 Question 6 Evaluate the significance of the Korean War for the risk of hot war conflict and the ideologies of the Cold war. Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.59–63 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Young and Kent (2013) Chapter 4E. Approaching the question In order to provide one of the best answers to this question it would again be necessary to understand the difference between a hot war and the Cold war. Such an answer would start by analysing the impact in terms of political power and influence on the protaganists in the military fighting. This would then be linked to the significance of Cold war fighting in terms of the ideological successes and failures for the American and communist powers. Particular attention would need to be paid to the fundamental Korean Cold war battle over the fate of prisoners of war. It is important to understand the issues around complying with the Geneva Convention and following the wishes of the captured prisoners, as well as around who should decide which of the prisoners’ wishes were freely expressed. To which states involved in the Korean War the outcome was most advantageous in both military and non-military terms will need to be made clear and the reasons for the judgement explained. Question 7 ‘The Sino-Soviet split was primarily produced by the ideological and personality differences between Khrushchev and Mao Tse Tung.’ Discuss. Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.47–51 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Lüthi, L.M. The Sino–Soviet split: Cold war in the communist world. (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2008) [ISBN 9780691135908] Chapters 2–7. Zubok, V. and C. Pleshakov Inside the Kremlin’s Cold war: from Stalin to Khrushchev. (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1996) [ISBN 9780674455313] Chapter 7. Approaching the question The best answers will have developed their own detailed understandings of the personalities, both personal and political of Khrushchev and Mao. Their roles in the development of the growing conflict should be examined and the relative importance of their personalities evaluated. The meetings between the two leaders, with their agreements and disagreements, need careful assessment on a comparative basis with the substantive issues producing the split. Knowledge of the disagreements that contributed to the conflict should be based on overall knowledge of the general Soviet and Chinese foreign policy approaches to the Cold war and nuclear cooperation. Particular knowledge of some of them (e.g. the Offshore Islands disputes) and their significance for the extent to which détente or confrontation with the West, would be desirable. 9 IR1034 World history since 1945 Question 8 How significant were the problems the Soviets faced in East Germany and Berlin for the development of the Cold war from 1953–1962? Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.74–79 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Young and Kent (2013) Chapter 6A. Approaching the question The best answers to this question would be based on good knowledge of the issues in East Germany and Berlin as interpreted by the Soviets, the East Germans and the West, notably in the USA and West Germany. The essay should provide an analysis of why the events in East Germany and Berlin and the Soviet policies involved were important for all sides and what the aims and priorities were for the Soviets and their East German allies. In order to complete a very good answer it will be necessary to evaluate the consequences of Soviet actions for the increase or reduction of Cold war tensions and whether they were advantageous for the aims of Moscow – making clear how such conclusions were reached. Question 9 To what extent was the US involvement in the overthrow of Jacob Arbenz produced by American commercial interests? Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.81–84 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Young and Kent (2013) Chapter 6C. Rabe, S.G. Eisenhower and Latin America: the foreign policy of anti-communism. (Chapel Hill, NC: University of North Carolina Press, 2006) [ISBN 9780807842041]. Approaching the question To answer this question effectively it will be necessary to have a good knowledge and understanding of American goals in terms of US political and economic relations with Central America in the post-1945 period that led to the election of Jacob Arbenz. Good answers will be able to analyse the nature of Arbenz’s reforms and their impact on America’s Cold war policies and aims. While the main causal driving forces behind such policies remain unclear, the best answers will be aware of the reforms’ impact on the United Fruit Company, which was the main commercial interest damaged by the reforms and the compensation provided. It will be a question of balancing the political and strategic elements with the economic ones, and the extent to which the US government was influenced by private economic interests in the Cold war. 10 Examiners’ commentaries 2016 Question 10 How far did the loss of British influence in the Middle East between 1950 and 1957 contribute to the development of the Cold war in the region? Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.91–95 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Young and Kent (2013) Chapter 8C. Shlaim, A. The iron wall: Israel and the Arab world. (London: Allen Lane, 2014) [ISBN 9780141033228] Chapter 4. Approaching the question The best answers will display knowledge of how and why the Middle East and Britain’s imperial and colonial positions were deemed so important in government perceptions of Britain’s status as a world power. Analysing the reasons for this and whether it influenced Cold war policies, in order to help justify the importance of the British position in the Middle East, will be necessary in the best answers. That importance, as compared to the closely connected inter-Arab and Arab-Israeli conflicts, will need to be evaluated before 1957 and the loss of British influence because of the Suez invasion. This will form the first half of the best answers. The second part will need to assess the impact of the USA after it began pursuing a more independent policy in the Middle East from 1953 onwards, and the growing Soviet interest in the region after 1954. So it will be necessary to analyse these policies, not just describe Middle East events, so that the best answers can put forward an argument as to whether or not events up to 1957 determined when the Cold war came to the Middle East, as British influence from areas outside Cyprus and the Persian Gulf was removed from the region after 1957. Question 11 Were the conflicts in Angola from 1961 to 1975 caused more by external powers than by emerging African political movements? Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.109–10, 112–13 and 114–19 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Young and Kent (2013) Chapter 8B. Approaching the question To answer a complex question such as this requires an ability to analyse the developments within Angola, and how these affected the neighbouring African countries as well as analysing the external events and the roles of those powers concerned with the Cold war in Africa. The Portuguese would need to be included from the outbreak of the revolt in 1962 along with the main external Cold war powers of China, the Soviet Union and the USA. The important later military roles of Cuba and South Africa will also have to be analysed. It will not only be necessary to clarify the connections between these powers, but between them and the local political parties in Angola. Were the external powers used by such allies or did they intervene out of perceptions of the broader significance of 11 IR1034 World history since 1945 Angola in the Cold war? The best answers will have to be structured with an awareness of how the importance of particular elements changed over time, with the causes of these changes highlighted in the analysis. Question 12 ‘The war in Vietnam was a massive defeat for the US despite its military victories on land, sea and air’. Discuss. Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.67–71 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Young and Kent (2013) Chapters 10A 10B, 10C and 10D. Approaching the question Good answers to this question will be based on an overall understanding of the key military strategies of the Americans and the crucial political implications of the ideological struggle between two very different societies and ways of life. It will be important to show awareness of the political difficulties at home in the USA, as well as the implications of the US military tactics of killing many more Vietcong than the numbers of US troops who became fatal casualties. The even bigger difficulties of appealing to the Vietnamese population, which in many ways were made worse by the military campaign tactics, are also essential to explain. In order for the answer to arrive at a clear conclusion, the key political and military moments in 1968 must be analysed for their military and political impacts against the background of the untruths the American people had been told about the progress of the war. Question 13 Did détente represent a Cold war defeat for the Soviets and a Cold war victory for the Americans? Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.53–58 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Young and Kent (2013) Chapters 12A, 12B, 13C, 13D, 14A and 14E. Approaching the question The best answers to this question will depend on their authors being able to understand the difference between cold and hot war, and on their awareness that the relaxation of tensions and greater diplomatic contacts could also mean greater opportunities to fight a cold war – safer in the knowledge that hot war was less likely to result. It will be important to provide details of areas (i.e. diplomacy and arms talks) in which tensions were reduced and of the areas (e.g. Jewish emigration from the Soviet Union and the ideology of revolutionary change) where they were not reduced. It will also be necessary to have a good understanding of the key aims of both sides and of how their realisation, or lack of realisation, affected the reduction or increase of tensions. It will be important to be aware of the ways, in which both the Cold war and the Soviet and American preparations and strategies for hot war were linked together as separate but related strategies. 12 Examiners’ commentaries 2016 Question14 To what extent did the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982 mark the end of the Middle East Cold war and its replacement by the internationalisation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.102–04 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Young and Kent (2013) Chapters 17A and 17B. Approaching the question In order to deal with this question well, the best answers will need to show an awareness of the broad development of the Arab-Israeli conflict and of how after the end of the 1967 war the Palestinians became disillusioned with having to rely on the Arab states as protectors and supporters of their interests. The ways in which the Palestinians sought to place greater importance on their own actions, which then involved linkages to other regional actors and to those outside the region should be analysed. A key focus would need to be the distinction between the Cold war in the Middle East and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. in terms of the emphases on particular elements of those conflicts that were primarily produced by internal conflicts or external ones. The other aspect of a good answer will be knowledge of the Lebanese invasion by Israel, with its impact on the nature of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the extent to which the different factions in the Lebanese Civil War were controlled by Cold war actors or used Cold war policies to further their goals in the Middle East. It will be important to have a clear view on the differences between what factors primarily constituted the Middle Eastern Cold war and what formed the Israeli-Palestinian conflict especially between 1967 and 1982. Question 15 How important were Soviet economic problems in causing the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe? Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.119–29 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Young and Kent (2013) Chapters 19A and 19B. Kramer, M. ‘The collapse of East European communism and the repercussions within the Soviet Union (Part I)’, Journal of Cold war Studies 5(1) 2003. Kramer, M. ‘The collapse of East European communism and the repercussions within the Soviet Union (Part II)’, Journal of Cold war Studies 6(4) 2004. Kramer, M. ‘The collapse of East European communism and the repercussions within the Soviet Union (Part III)’, Journal of Cold war Studies 7(1) 2005. Approaching the question Good answers to this question will demonstrate a sound knowledge of the structural problems of the Soviet Union’s relatively unsuccessful economy and the attempts by Gorbachev and others to reform it. In addition the best answers will be able to provide a comparative analysis of how important these problems were in the various contributory causes to the end of the Cold war. Thus knowledge of the general causes 13 IR1034 World history since 1945 produced by both nationalist and reformist movements in Eastern Europe will be needed, and the reasons for their successes explained, preferably with reference to two or more countries. Central to their success was Gorbachev’s determination, not only to refrain from using force to suppress such movements in Eastern Europe, but to encourage them in order to strengthen reformists in the Soviet Union. There would also be a need to address the other external factors such as the Red Army’s failures in Afghanistan and the internal impact of the greater accessibility of accurate information about the West through the world wide web. Question 16 ‘Mikhail Gorbachev’s strength was his realisation that reform of the Soviet Union had to be produced by a top down process.’ Discuss. Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.127–32 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Young and Kent (2013) Chapters 1A and 1B Brown, A. Seven years that changed the world. (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2007) [ISBN 9780199282159] Chapter 7. Approaching the question In order to answer this question well it will be necessary focus on the way the Soviet system worked, and what options were available internally for Gorbachev to use when he was trying to implement his economic and political reforms. Thus simply understanding his reforms would be insufficient as the best answers will be focused much more on a comparative analysis of them and the structures of Soviet political system and society. It will be important to have a sound knowledge of the institutions of the communist party in politics and government and to explain how they had prevented the emergence of movements from below able to question or challenge communist control. Hence the most effective way to change anything had to come from the controlling heights of the communist party in order to have an impact. Gorbachev initially realised that reforms had to be initiated by him and other senior figures in the party. Arguably this was crucial even though Gorbachev himself was faced with his inability to control the changes his reforms unleashed. Question 17 Was the 2003 invasion of Iraq primarily the result of the influence of neoconservatives in the Bush administration? Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.149– 153 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Young and Kent (2013) Chapters 24A and 24B. Approaching the question Good answers to this question have to be based on an understanding of what neo-conservatism meant generally, and the ideas that its supporters in the Bush administration sought to implement in the Middle East and Iraq. Then it will be necessary to understand how the American political 14 Examiners’ commentaries 2016 system operates and how and why those members of the administration who were neo-conservatives were in a position to influence the policy making process and thus to influence the implementation of the invasion plans. The best answers will have detailed knowledge of the ideas and beliefs of key individuals which will have to be accompanied by a similarly detailed knowledge of the specific events that unfolded after 9/11 and interacted with the responsibilities of the leading neo-conservatives particularly in 2002 and 2003. Question 18 To what extent have Chinese ambitions changed since the start of the new millennium? Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.143– 147 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Young and Kent (2013) Chapters 25B and 25C. Approaching the question The best answers to this question will adopt a two-part structure examining the political and economic aims of China and assessing the ways in which they have developed or changed in the 21st century. An important element to begin with will be an introduction to Hu Jintao’s ideas of the traditional Chinese harmonious world and the way in which this was acted out, which reflected or contradicted the rhetoric. Thus the policies followed in key areas and applied to the way, for example, in which China has joined international organisations like the World Trade Organization in the foreign economic sense must be examined. In the politics of foreign policy the way China has been involved in disputes over territories and resources in the South and East China Seas needs analysing before and after the start of the millennium. The best analyses will approach the aims and effects of Chinese policies at the international and the regional levels. The final element in one of the best answers will be to acquire from online sources some knowledge of the development of China’s military strength from Jiang Zemin until Xi Jinping. 15 IR1034 World history since 1945 Examiners’ commentaries 2016 IR1034 World history since 1945 – Zone B Important note This commentary reflects the examination and assessment arrangements for this course in the academic year 2015–16. The format and structure of the examination may change in future years, and any such changes will be publicised on the virtual learning environment (VLE). Information about the subject guide and the Essential reading references Unless otherwise stated, all cross-references will be to the latest version of the subject guide (2012). You should always attempt to use the most recent edition of any Essential reading textbook, even if the commentary and/or online reading list and/or subject guide refers to an earlier edition. If different editions of Essential reading are listed, please check the VLE for reading supplements – if none are available, please use the contents list and index of the new edition to find the relevant section. Comments on specific questions Candidates should answer THREE of the following EIGHTEEN questions. All questions carry equal marks. Question 1 How far did the Long Telegram of February 1946 and George Kennan’s ideas on containment affect US policy to the Soviets in 1946 and 1947? Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.18–24 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Young, J.W. and J. Kent International relations since 1945: A global history. (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013) second edition [ISBN 9780199693061] Chapters 1E and 2A. Approaching the question In order to answer this question well it will be essential to understand the detail of George Kennan’s views on the nature of the Soviet Union and the way these ideas were expressed in the Long Telegram. The more difficult task will be to analyse the development of a US policy towards the Soviet Union and the extent to which it was based on these ideas. Some knowledge of the American policy-making machinery and the general way in which the USA responded to events in the external world in 1946 and 1947 will be needed. It may be that the idea of containing the Soviet threat was simply a justification for American desires to shape the future international order and a defensive role within it. The best answers will be capable of comparing the importance of Kennan’s ideas with other 16 Examiners’ commentaries 2016 pressures on those formulating policy, with the actual international events to which the USS had to respond and the ideological influences of democratic capitalism. Question 2 To what extent did the Cold war result from the Allied failures to agree on the economic future of Germany? Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.21–23 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Young and Kent (2013) Chapters 1B, 1C, 1D, 1E, 2A and 2B. Approaching the question The best answers to this question will be aware of the need to have a general idea of what factors were significant in the development of the Cold war, and how these were linked to an understanding of the nature and definition that is assumed for the Cold war. It will be essential to build a comparative analysis reflecting the consistency between the specific factors that produced the Cold war conflict and what forms of power were its most important constituent components. Hence if the issues of Germany’s economy are deemed particularly significant, as opposed to East Asia or the political future of Eastern Europe, it would need sound knowledge of the issues dealing with German reparations that were raised and the agreement to treat the zones of Germany as a single economic unit. The problems caused in trying to implement this by 1947 were superseded by the requirements of the western Allies to get access to German industrial production, which required foodstuffs from the eastern zone, in order to establish a European recovery programme. Question 3 Was the idea of rollback after 1948 produced more by the ideological fear of communism than Soviet actions in Eastern Europe? Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.29–32 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Young and Kent (2013) Chapters 2A, 4A, 4D and 4E. Approaching the question To answer this question effectively a good knowledge of what the Soviets were doing in Eastern Europe after 1945 will be required that involves understanding the significance of the timing of Soviet political takeovers and the rigging of elections in the countries adjacent to the Soviet Union. A sound knowledge of when this happened at different times in different countries will be necessary to produce the best answers. It will then be necessary to link these (or to show there was no link) to the strategies proposed in the USA for undermining the Soviet empire and/or preventing the spread of communism. It will be useful to focus on the memoranda of the newly established National Security Council in the Foreign Relations of the USA 1948–1950. These are provided online at the University of Wisconsin digital library (1948 is covered in two general volumes). These, 17 IR1034 World history since 1945 particularly NSC 7 and NSC 20, need to be analysed in order to produce the best answers to the question and determine the extent to which rollback was being proposed by the National Security Council during and after 1948. Question 4 Evaluate the effectiveness of American covert operations and propaganda in the Cold war under Truman and Eisenhower. Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.30–32 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Young and Kent (2013) Chapters 4D and 7A. Approaching the question In order to provide a good answer to this question it will be necessary to know how the Truman and Eisenhower administrations went about organising the covert operations undertaken by the American government in the Cold war against the communist states in Eastern Europe that were controlled by the Soviet Union or were prepared to follow left-wing policies against the interests of the USA. It will be important to be aware of the failures of the operations to overthrow governments under both administrations and the successes that the Eisenhower administration had. An evaluation must also be made of the way propaganda contributed to the success of Western ideals and soft power in the Cold war. These successes must also be linked to the reasons why democratic capitalism was adopted in the countries in Western Europe and the extent to which politics and economics held the Western alliance together. Question 5 Did the Soviet testing of the hydrogen bomb increase the value of nuclear deterrence and create a more stable international system? Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.41–44 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Young and Kent (2013) Chapters 4B and 5C. Approaching the question Good answers to this question will be based on an awareness of the changes brought about by both sides after they each acquired the ability to construct hydrogen bombs following the Soviet testing of a thermo-nuclear device in 1953. The impact on military planning and deterrence strategies made by hydrogen bombs, which were hundreds of times more powerful than atomic weapons, requires analysing. Using the process of fusion to produce the explosive power and its effect requires explaining in terms of its political and strategic importance. It will be necessary to analyse how deterrence theory changed, and whether or not the impact of these changes had a positive or negative impact on the stability of the Cold war international system by reducing the likelihood of major armed conflicts. 18 Examiners’ commentaries 2016 Question 6 Did the Western alliance or the communist bloc gain the most from the Korean War? Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.59–63 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Young and Kent (2013) Chapter 4E. Approaching the question Good answers to this question will start by introducing how ‘gain’ is measured, and what the political economic and international status and prestige benefits that the Korean War produced were for the main participants. The latter is particularly important as the economic benefits are likely to be non-existent given the growing costs of war after 1945. In the case of the Chinese, political and prestige benefits flowed from their ability to avoid a defeat in Korea at the hands of the USA, but their status in the communist world relative to the Soviet Union should also be considered. The position of Cold war gains or losses for the USA needs to be evaluated in the light of the disagreements over the exchange of prisoners of war issue with the Chinese. There is also US credibility as a defender of the free world to be taken into account. The Soviet Union had little direct involvement and therefore its position as the leading member of the communist bloc needs to be analysed through its gains and losses in what it hoped to achieve by giving the go ahead for invasion to Kim Il Sung and providing military equipment. Question 7 To what extent was the Sino-Soviet split caused by the Soviet determination to ensure China acted as a junior partner in Moscow’s leadership of the communist bloc? Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.47–51 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Lüthi, L.M. The Sino–Soviet split: Cold war in the communist world. (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2008) [ISBN 9780691135908] Chapters 2–7. Zubok, V. and C. Pleshakov Inside the Kremlin’s Cold war: from Stalin to Khrushchev. (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1996) [ISBN 9780674455313] Chapter 7. Approaching the question The best answers to this question will focus on how the Chinese sought to increase their influence over the communist bloc in both ideological and policy terms. Thus how they used the initial relationship to get technical and military support from the Soviet Union, particularly over nuclear technology, will need to be analysed. Similarly the ways in which the Soviet Union came to restrict such help will have to be examined. The fact that both sides were not, at times, keen to consult the other over important foreign policy decisions will also need to be illustrated. These important analyses arising from focusing on the specific wording of the 19 IR1034 World history since 1945 question will need to be accompanied by a comparative analysis of other elements that contributed to the split which may have resulted primarily from the ideological differences over global strategy in the Cold war displayed in the Offshore Islands Crises, and by the personality clashes between Mao Tse Tung and Khrushchev. Question 8 ‘The Berlin Crisis 1958–61 was caused by Khrushchev’s desire to ensure that East Germany had a dominant position in a communist dominated Central Europe’. Discuss. Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.76–79 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Young and Kent (2013) Chapters 6A and 7B. Approaching the question In order to answer this question well it will be necessary to understand how the relationship between Khrushchev and East Germany developed, and the way the Soviet Union and the German Democratic Republic perceived their aims differently. Thus it will be vital to explain in the introduction how East Germany was perceived as developing into a showcase for communism and then to analyse the implications of that in terms of the problems this had encountered by the second half of the 1950s. The main body of the best essays should then analyse the way Khrushchev hoped to strengthen East Germany by 1958 when it could not easily be made into a communist showcase. The fact that more and more people were leaving East Germany meant something had to be done to prevent this, and thus it will be necessary to explain how and why Khrushchev, having provoked a crisis with the West, came round to Ulbricht’s position which resulted in the building of the wall in Berlin. Question 9 In what ways did the Congo crisis damage the efforts of both blocs to win African allies in the Cold war? Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.109–11 and 112–15 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Young and Kent (2013) Chapter 8B. Approaching the question The best answers to this question will show awareness of the importance of the Congo crisis because of the Cold war implications and the changing role of the United Nations in the context of the most significant African decolonisation years. The Congo’s significance for the choices of the newly independent African states in determining the success or failure of the two opposing ideologies will need to be analysed and illustrated. Thus the significant development of the divisions between the USA and the Europeans and the UN Secretary General’s attempts to play a pro-active role on behalf of the Afro-Asian bloc while keeping the Soviets out of 20 Examiners’ commentaries 2016 Africa will need to be explained. It will be important to assess how the two blocs by their policies on the secession and re-integration of the province of Katanga hoped, and were sometimes able, to produce support in the Congo and amongst the newly independent African states. The damaging impact of those policies on the viability of the Congo as a successful independent state must then be analysed in terms of whose policies were least damaging to their Cold war Congo interests. Question 10 ‘The Cuban Revolution was the most significant event in the Latin American Cold war in the 20 years after World War II’. Discuss. Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.81–90 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Young and Kent (2013) Chapters 7D and 6C. Approaching the question Good answers to this question will depend firstly on an ability to identify which elements were the most important constituent parts of the Cold war in Latin America. They will then be able to demonstrate an understanding of the ideologies from which economic, political and social policies were developed in Latin America. They will need to show how Moscow’s and Washington’s policies were linked to military strategies and nuclear weapons deployments. These economic and political components were how the Marxist socio-economic policies of the Cuban Revolution threatened to damage US interests in Latin America. It will thus be necessary to analyse the Cold war aims of the Alliance for Progress as well as to explain the development of Castro’s ideas. The need to protect the Cuban Revolution should then be used to explain how and why Khrushchev decided to send nuclear missiles to Cuba in support of the Cuban Revolution. Question 11 Why was there no progress to end the Arab-Israeli conflict between 1950 and 1964? Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.91–95 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Young and Kent (2013) Chapters 8C and 10D. Approaching the question The best answers to this question will start by explaining the significance of the Tripartite Declaration in the wake of the armistices after the first rounds of Arab-Israeli fighting in order to begin an analysis of why they failed to end the conflict and why this failure made it more important to increase the efforts to produce a lasting peace settlement in order to build on the armistice agreement. With the agreement to restrict the supplies of arms to the opposing sides having failed, the focus of the answer should be on the Anglo-American attempts to get an agreed peace settlement through the implementation of a plan codenamed Alpha. It will 21 IR1034 World history since 1945 be important to explain the details of this plan, which was discussed with Nasser and Ben Gurion by Eisenhower’s personal representative Robert Anderson. Explaining why there was no agreement reached will be a key element of the best answers which should conclude with an analysis of the contributions made by Kennedy and Johnson to deal with the conflict in ways which arguably made it more likely to erupt again. Question 12 To what extent did Soviet-American détente increase Cold war confrontation by reducing hot war tensions? Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.53–58 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Young and Kent (2013) Chapters 12A, 12B, 13D, 14A and 14E. Approaching the question In order to answer this question well it will be necessary to understand and be able to explain the difference, in the 1970s especially, between cold and hot war. This will provide the basis for an analysis of what each side was hoping to achieve in the Cold war. In the best answers dealing with both kinds of wars it will then be necessary to connect the Cold war and hot war aims to why preventing the Cold war becoming hot was so desirable. This will enable the détente process for reducing nuclear weapons through arms agreements to be assessed. Hence the SALT talks should be covered whilst making it clear that one goal was also to get advantages in the pursuit of the Cold war. The answer should conclude with an assessment of the extent to which the relaxation of tensions and arms agreements had increased or reduced the intensity of the Cold war conflict. Question 13 Did the Yom Kippur war bring direct Soviet and American involvement in the Cold war in the Middle East for the first time? Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.95–102 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Young and Kent (2013) Chapters 11D, 13A and 14B. Approaching the question The best answers to this question will be introduced by an explanation of what elements constituted the Cold war in the Middle East (e.g. the extent of American and Soviet aid, or the diplomatic pressure exerted by the superpowers on states within the region to pursue policies desired by Washington or Moscow) and/or the interpretation of particular rivalries within the region in terms of a global ideological or power political conflict. Then, having decided which way to analyse the 1967 and earlier conflicts in terms of the Cold war or regional conflicts, more detail should be provided on them. This detail should come from a knowledge of the first Arab-Israeli war through the Suez Crisis and the Six Day War to Yom Kippur. A clear argument will need to be developed in the best answers for why the Yom Kippur War was different from other military engagements in 22 Examiners’ commentaries 2016 being more than another round of the Arab-Israeli or Israeli-Palestinian or conflicts (or why it was no different to earlier ones for the Soviets and the Americans). Question 14 Was the Cold war’s end the result of Eastern Europe’s rebellions against Soviet control? Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.119–29 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Young and Kent (2013) Chapters 19A, 19B, 19C and 19D. Kramer, M. ‘The collapse of East European communism and the repercussions within the Soviet Union (Part I)’, Journal of Cold war Studies 5(1) 2003. Kramer, M. ‘The collapse of East European communism and the repercussions within the Soviet Union (Part II)’, Journal of Cold war Studies 6(4) 2004. Kramer, M. ‘The collapse of East European communism and the repercussions within the Soviet Union (Part III)’, Journal of Cold war Studies 7(1) 2005. Approaching the question In order to produce a good answer to this question it will be necessary to be aware, at the general level, of the different contributory causes of the end of the Cold war in order to provide some comparative analysis within the answer. The best answers will, however, be able to evaluate whether one particular cause (e.g. nationalist rebellions, the ideas of the reform movement which Gorbachev was able to implement or the structural weaknesses of the Soviet economy) was more important than the others. The main focus of the more specific detail will need to be on the rebellious movements in Eastern Europe, and it will be necessary in the best answers to provide some analysis of the importance of at least two of these Eastern European movements and their connections to the developments in the Soviet Union in producing the end of the Cold war. Question 15 To what extent was Boris Yeltsin the main reason for the collapse of the Soviet Union? Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.127–33 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Young and Kent (2013) Chapters 1A and 1B; Kramer, M. ‘The collapse of East European communism and the repercussions within the Soviet Union (Part I)’, Journal of Cold war Studies 5(1) 2003. Kramer, M. ‘The collapse of East European communism and the repercussions within the Soviet Union (Part II)’, Journal of Cold war Studies 6(4) 2004. Kramer, M. ‘The collapse of East European communism and the repercussions within the Soviet Union (Part III)’, Journal of Cold war Studies 7(1) 2005. Approaching the question The best answers to this question will be able to demonstrate detailed knowledge of the interactions between Gorbachev and Yeltsin especially during the years after 1989 when Yeltsin gained an important electoral 23 IR1034 World history since 1945 victory in Russia. Some analysis must be provided of the weakness of the Soviet system when Gorbachev’s reforms began in earnest after 1987. They must also explain the problems that Yeltsin was able to exploit, and the mistakes made by Gorbachev in attempting to deal with Yeltsin, particularly in 1990–1991 and how these mistakes weakened Gorbachev’s political position. Thus the analysis in the best answers will be able to conclude by comparing the problems of the Soviet Union and how Gorbachev had failed to deal with them as his political mistakes weakened his position. The consequences have to be assessed as Yeltsin was able to strengthen his standing in Russia and was able to benefit from the actions he took in the failed 1991 coup. Question 16 Has Obama’s administration had a detrimental impact on the war on terror? Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.138–42 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Young and Kent (2013) Chapters 23E and 24B. Approaching the question In order to answer this question effectively the best answers will demonstrate knowledge of the war on terror before and after Obama entered the White House. The key issues at the heart of the analysis will be analysed to reveal whether the actions taken by the Bush administration in Afghanistan and Iraq increased the danger from Islamic terrorists and whether this was reduced after American combat forces were withdrawn from Iraq by Obama, and the fight was then conducted by special forces and drone warfare. The best answers will contain an argument as to whether or not the impact of these actions has helped or hindered the effort to reduce the threat from terrorists and be able to explain how and why this has occurred. Question 17 How has China’s economic rise affected stability in East Asia? Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.143–47 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Young and Kent (2013) Chapters 25B and 25C. Approaching the question The best answers will start with a brief description of how China’s rise has been produced with regard to the different areas of economic growth, military capability and international political influence. They will then go on to analyse the consequences produced in East Asia by the nature of China’s rise in the respective areas. This analysis should cover whether stability has increased or decreased because of the perceptions of threats or of opportunities in East Asia. By focusing on the perceptions of China’s rise in the lesser East Asian powers, their reactions in terms of welcoming the economic opportunities China’s rise offers or fearing the threats that China’s increasing power could represent can be analysed. In addition the assessments should also cover the diplomatic and economic actions 24 Examiners’ commentaries 2016 taken in East Asia by the more important regional players in Tokyo and Washington. Question 18 ‘The 2003 war in Iraq caused the failure of the American strategy in Afghanistan’. Discuss. Reading for this question Some initial guidance can be found in the relevant material on pp.140–41 and 150–57 in the subject guide. This should not be regarded as providing you with any learning outcomes but as enabling an effective learning process to begin by reading and analysing what is significant in the following: Young and Kent (2013) Chapters 23D, 23E and 24B. Approaching the question To answer this question well candidates should be able to analyse the details of the conflict in Afghanistan (in particular the effect on the Afghanistan campaign of the invasion of Iraq in 2003) and provide an argument based on how the reduction of the forces provided by the USA and its allies in Afghanistan, in order to send troops to Iraq, impacted on that conflict. The role of Pakistan will also be important to assess and compare. Knowledge of military strategy and the important political consequences of the equipment weaknesses and of the pacification policies employed by the Americans will be needed in the best answers with an awareness of the problems of cooperating with the rival leaders or warlords in Afghanistan 25
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