Review of 2014 ICES’ advice:
Improving stocks/declining stocks/implications/2015 TACs
and quota proposals and their implications
5th November 2014
Seafish Common Language Group
Committee Room, Billingsgate Market, Trafalgar Way, London E14 5ST
Dr Carl O’Brien
Defra Chief Fisheries Science Adviser
UK Delegate to ICES
• Context:
– COM(2014) 388 final
• ACOM 2013:
– Press release 11 December 2013
– Trends in the North-east Atlantic
• MSFD:
– Regions
– Functional groups
• Advice in 2014:
– Approach
– Note 5315/13 & 5232/14
– Ecoregions/EU stocks
• Cion proposal:
– Press release 28 October 2014
Outline of presentation
• 27 stocks in the NEA and surrounding
waters are now managed at MSY
– compared with just 5 in 2009
• Over the same period, the number of
stocks with MSY assessments has
increased from 35 to 46
• 55% of stocks in the NEA and
surrounding waters are now within safe
biological limits
– up from 31% in 2009
COM(2014) 388 final
• Harvested sustainably
– cod:
• around Iceland
• in the Barents Sea
– plaice:
• in the North Sea
– herring:
• in the Norwegian Sea
• in the Baltic Sea
• in the North Sea
– sprat:
• in the Baltic Sea
ICES ACOM – December 2013
Average fishing
pressure
Average stock biomass
General trends in the Northeast
Atlantic: 85 major fish stocks
ICES WKD3R January 2014
(Chair – Carl O’Brien) - MSFD
... WKD3R
... WKD3R (continued)
General trends in fishing mortality:
EU waters (42 stocks)
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
Pelagic
0.4
Demersal
0.3
0.2
0.1
Development in fishing
mortality
2013
2010
2007
2004
2001
1998
1995
1992
1989
1986
1983
1980
1977
1974
1971
1968
1965
1962
1959
1956
1953
1950
1947
0
Area
Number of stocks for which advice
has been or will be provided in 2014
Iceland and East Greenland
13
Barents Sea
9
Faroe Plateau
4
Celtic Sea and West of Scotland
65
North Sea, Eastern Channel, Skagerrak and
Kattegat
51
Bay of Biscay and Atlantic Iberian Waters
40
Baltic Sea
19
Widely distributed and migratory stocks
50
ICES’ recurring fisheries advice
1
Data rich stocks with an accepted analytical
assessment and forecast for MSY
MSY approach
2
Data rich stocks with an analytical assessment and
forecast accepted for trends only
Developing MSY
approach (2014
onwards)
3
Stocks with survey-based assessments indicating trends
Developing MSY
approach (2014
onwards)
4
Stocks with reliable time-series of catch data to
approximate MSY
Developing MSY
approach (2014
onwards)
5
Only catch or landings available
Developing riskbased approach
6
Only landings available and largely discarded
Developing riskbased approach
Stock categories and advice
approach
Stock
F(2013) SSB(2014)
Cod in Division VIIa
Haddock in Division VIIa
Whiting in Division VIIa
Plaice in Division VIIa
Sole in Division VIIa
Status in pictogram
Status
F < FMSY: appropriate
Unknown /
undefined
F > FMSY: above target
SSB > Bpa: Full reproductive capacity
Blim < SSB < Bpa: Increased risk
SSB < Blim: Reduced reproductive capacity
E.g. Irish Sea
roundfish and flatfish
Increasing
Unchanged
Decreasing
• Joint statement by the Council and
Commission
• Maintain 2013 TAC for listed stocks for the
following five years four years
• Ad Specific Data Limited Stocks (UK):
• Greater silver smelt III, IV
• Sprat Channel (VIIde)
• Herring Bristol Channel (VIIef)
• Blue ling (II & IV)
• Tusk (IV) and Tusk (I, II & XIV)
• Ling (I & II) and Ling (V)
Note 5315/13
Note 5232/14
Whiting VIIa
Plaice VIIhjk
Sole VIIhjk
• Generally, improving situation:
• F declining further
– continued movement towards FMSY
• SSB increasing
• Some stocks awaiting improvement
ICES’ advice in 2014 for 2015
1. Iceland & East Greenland
2. Barents Sea & Norwegian
Sea
3. Faroe Plateau
4. North Sea
5. Celtic Sea & West of
Scotland
6. Bay of Biscay & Atlantic
Iberian Waters
7. Baltic Sea
Widely distributed stocks
Ecoregions / EU stocks
North Sea ecoregion
•
•
•
•
•
Cod in Kattegat
Whiting in Skagerrak & Kattegat
Plaice in Skagerrak
Plaice in SD 21-23
Sole in Skagerrak, Kattegat & SD
22-24
Data-limited stocks (DLS):
Brill, Dab, Flounder, Lemon sole,
Turbot (IV; IIIa), Witch
EASTERN
CHANNEL
• Plaice
(VIId)
• Sole
(VIId)
•
•
•
•
•
•
NORTH SEA:
Cod (IV, Skagerrak, VIId)
Haddock (IV, Skagerrak)
Short lived:
Whiting (IV, VIId)
Sandeel, Norway pout,
Sprat (IV, IIIa)
Saithe (IV, IIIa, VI)
Plaice (IV)
Nephrops
Sole (IV)
Cod, haddock, whiting and saithe
trends
North Sea ecoregion
Cod, haddock, whiting and saithe
2/3
at FMSY
or less
ref. points
North Sea ecoregion
1/3
above
MSY
Btrigger +
1/3
just
below
Plaice and sole
trends
North Sea ecoregion
Plaice and sole
3/4
1/5
above
MSY
Btrigger
just
above
FMSY
+
3/5
at FMSY
or less
ref. points
North Sea ecoregion
Celtic Sea ecoregion
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
West of Scotland
& Rockall
Cod (VIa; VIb)
Haddock (VIa; VIb)
Whiting (VIa; VIb)
Anglerfish (IIIa,IV,VI)
Megrim (IVa-VIa; VIb)
Nephrops (FUs11-1213)
Celtic Sea &
West, Southwest Ireland
Cod (VIIe-k)
Haddock (VIIb-k)
Whiting (VIIe-k)
Plaice (CS; VIIh-k; VIIbc)
Sole (CS; VIIh-k; VIIbc)
Northern hake
Anglerfish (VIIb-k, VIIIabd)
Megrim (VIIb-k, VIIIabd)
Nephrops (FUs 16-17-20-22)
Irish Sea
• Cod
• Haddock
• Whiting
• Plaice
• Sole
• Nephrops
(FUs 14-1519)
Western Channel
• Plaice (VIIe)
• Sole (VIIe)
Cod, haddock, whiting and hake
trends
Celtic Sea ecoregion
Cod, haddock, whiting and hake
4/7
5/7
above
MSY
Btrigger
at FMSY
or
less
ref. points
Celtic Sea ecoregion
Plaice, sole and megrim
trends
Celtic Sea ecoregion
Plaice, sole and megrim
4/5
2/5
at FMSY
or less
ref. points
Celtic Sea ecoregion
above
MSY
Btrigger
Celtic Sea, North Sea:
Herring
West of
Scotland
North
Sea
N&W Ireland
Irish
Sea
Celtic Sea & S Ireland
Western
Baltic
Celtic Sea, North Sea:
trends
Herring
Celtic Sea, North Sea:
Herring
3/5
2/3
at
FMSY
or
less
above
MSY
Btrigger
ref. points
Baltic Sea ecoregion
HERRING:
• Bothnian Bay
• Bothnian Sea
• Gulf Riga
• Central Baltic
Sprat SD 22-32
Flatfishes
(DLS):
Plaice, Brill, Dab,
Flounder, Turbot
• Cod SD 22-24
• Cod SD 25-32
Salmon & Trout
Baltic Sea ecoregion
trends
Baltic Sea ecoregion
1/7
just
above
FMSY
+
2/7
at FMSY
or less
ref. points
5/6
above
MSY
Btrigger
Bay of Biscay & Iberian waters ecoregion
BAY OF
BISCAY:
• Sole
• Anchovy
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
IBERIA (VIIIc, IXa):
Hake
Anglerfish (pisc.)
Anglerfish (budeg.)
Megrim (whiff.)
Megrim (bosc.)
Sardine
Horse mackerel (IXa)
New stocks
whiting
plaice
sole
pollack
grey gurnard
sardine
VII+VIIIabd
sea bass
Nephrops
• VIIIc, IXaN
• IXaS
• VIIIab
Bay of Biscay & Iberian waters ecoregion
trends
Bay of Biscay & Iberian waters ecoregion
1/7
just
above
FMSY
+
3/7
at FMSY
or less
ref. points
1/3
above
MSY
Btrigger
Cod:
-10% as % 2014 TAC
Haddock:
-8% as % 2014 TAC
Northeast Arctic
ICES 2015
TAC advice
Stock
Type of advice
Currently at MSY
Atlanto-Scandian herring
-32%
Management Plan (MP)
Y
NEA mackerel
between -35% to -40%
MP
Y
Boarfish
-58%
Data Limited Stock (DLS)
U (low)
Western horse mackerel
-27%
MSY approach
N
North Sea horse mackerel
-20%
Data Limited Stock (DLS)
U
Blue whiting
-30%
MP
Y
Widely distributed (e.g.)
• Generally, improving situation over the
years
• F has come down strongly
– Increasing number of stocks now at/below
FMSY
• SSB increasing
• Some stocks awaiting further
improvement
Conclusions
IP/14/1210
Thank you!