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Retail Tenants
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Vol. 29, No. 19
October 5, 2015
PORTFOLIO COMPANIES RULE CASUAL DINING (2015 Openings)
Company Name (Chains) Dine Equity Inc. Applebee’s IHOP Darden Restaurants Inc. Olive Garden The Capital Grille Yard House LongHorn Steakhouse Eddie V’s Seasons 52 Bahama Breeze Bloomin’ Brands Inc. Outback Steakhouse Carrabba’s Italian Grill Bonefish Grill Fleming’s Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar Brinker International Chili’s Maggiano’s Ignite Restaurant Group Brick House Tavern Joe’s Crab Shack Total Number of Openings Notes 80 to 100 Applebee’s leads Dine Equity’s stable with 2,014 stores to IHOP’s 1,651 locations but it the latter will get the most new stores this year and, likely, in 2016 as well. Dine Equity will grow both chains aggressively, however, with Applebee’s adding 30 to 40 stores and IHOP aiming for 50 to 60 new locations. During the first six months of fiscal 2015, IHOP edged Applebee’s with a 5.5 percent rise in comps while the latter posted a still respectable 2 percent increase. During the second quarter, IHOP’s total sales rose 6.2 percent, the largest quarterly sales increase for the chain in over a decade. These steady results along with the company’s penchant for focusing almost exclusively on franchises, ensures Dine Equity’s growth pace will lead the casual dining segment by a good margin. 18 to 22 Darden has rebounded nicely from a scathing report published last year by private equity firm Starboard Value – one of the company’s largest shareholders. The report focused mainly on issues at the company’s signature Olive Garden chain, which posted a positive but unspectacular comps increase for fiscal 2015 of 1.3 percent. For the first quarter of fiscal 2016, the chain posted an even stronger 2.7 percent increase. However, comps have been consistently stronger at both Yard House and LongHorn Steakhouse, both of which will get the majority of attention this year. The company has some concerns that the Olive Garden chain, which has 843 stores (more than all other chains combined) is reaching maturity. The company still cautiously hopes to open five to 10 Olive Garden locations annually going forward, as it tries to reach its long‐
stated goal of having 1,000 Olive Gardens nationwide. However, Darden is taking a serious look at cannibalization, so new stores will likely have to be located a suitable distance from existing stores. The company is encouraged by renovation efforts at Olive Garden, which have so far yielded a 7 percent comps increase at the 13 stores it has updated. 20 Bloomin’ Brands will put most of its focus on secondary brands Bonefish Grill and Carrabba’s for immediate growth. It most recognizable concept, Outback Steakhouse, opened 15 stores in Brazil during the past 12 months but U.S. growth was a net wash. The chain still searches for available real estate as it did open two U.S. stores during the second quarter, which were negated by two closures. By comparison, Bonefish grill grew by a net 15 new stores in the past 12 months while Carrabba’s added five. Look for that annual growth pace to continue for all chains for the time being.
17 The company will increase its growth pace in 2016 to add a total of 19 to 26 total locations, with a primary focus on its Chili’s concept. Brinker will split openings almost evenly between company‐operated stores (11‐13) and franchises (8‐10). It will plans for Maggiano’s 2016 growth to match this year’s three openings. Chili’s franchisees outperformed company‐operated locations slightly during the fiscal year ended June 24, with a 2.9 percent uptick in comps for franchised locations, compared to 1.9 percent increase for company restaurants. 4 Ignite Restaurant Group (IGR), which sold its former staple Macaroni Grill earlier this year, will focus on growing Brick House Tavern for the near future. It plans to increase growth of the concept to six to 10 new restaurants annually. Joe’s Crab Shack, meanwhile, will likely stay put at its current store total until operational results can be turned around. For the most recent second quarter, Brick House posted a 2.8 percent comps increase while Joe’s Crab Shack’s comps fell 4 percent. Brick House’s total revenues rose an impressive 16.9 percent during the quarter. Aside from these results, another indicator that the company is betting on Brick House is that some of the chain’s new locations might even replace existing Joe’s restaurants. Brick House currently has 23 locations, with nine in Texas, three each in Florida and New Jersey, two in Illinois and one location each in Colorado, Kentucky, Missouri, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Source: Crittenden Research Inc.TM See Crittenden’s Retail Tenants Online Directory for chain’s specific square footage.
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Page 2
Crittenden’s Retail Space™
FOREIGN FAST-FASHION CHAINS TO CLOSE GAP
H&M, Zara and Uniqlo encroach further into the U.S. fast-fashion landscape, threatening the domination of
Gap Inc. H&M will likely be the biggest challenger as it looks to the U.S. – and China – for much of its
400 net new stores this year. It’s likely to set a similar global pace in 2016. The Swedish retailer wants to
add 58 stores in the U.S. this year and should continue at a pace of 50 to 60 new stores in the U.S. next year
as well.
While H&M’s namesake brand will likely get the bulk of the retailer’s expansion money, its newest COS
concept, a more upscale brand that will directly compete with Gap’s Banana Republic as well as & Other
Stories, should also continue to add stores in the U.S. COS enjoyed a 12 percent sales increase in local
currency through the first nine months of the year. Look for H&M’s growth to extend nationwide and
include outlet centers, properties in which it will open several full-line stores. It also continues to look at
new markets and debuted this year in Alaska, Montana and Oklahoma.
Gap Inc. will likely continue to lean on Old Navy for the U.S. expansion of its family apparel business in
2016 as the brand’s sales consistently outpace those of both The Gap and Banana Republic. During its most
recent quarter, Old Navy posted a 3 percent comps increase on top of a 4 percent increase for the same
quarter last year. By comparison, its namesake brand suffered a 6 percent drop in comps during its most
recent quarter, compounding a 5 percent drop last year, and Banana Republic posted a 4 percent drop after
flat comps the year prior. However, Gap Inc. will open stores under all three brands. Old Navy will likely
post the greatest net growth. During the second quarter, Gap opened six stores in North America but closed
26 for a net loss of 20 locations. By comparison, Old Navy opened a relatively modest seven stores during
the quarter but closed only four for a net gain of three stores. Banana Republic, meanwhile, opened four
and closed two.
Gap Inc. still has a massive presence in the North American apparel industry, with more than 1,600 stores
combined, not including yoga specialist Athleta, which operates more than 100 stores and will likely prove
to be the strongest expansionist in the company’s stable. However, H&M is closing in on 400 stores in the
U.S. and it won’t let up on growth. Uniqlo and Zara have a much smaller presence, with just over 50 stores
each. However, both chains are growing at a higher net rate than the combined total of all three Gap Inc.
chains.
Forever 21 is another threat to Gap Inc. The company is gobbling up market share in the fast-fashion niche
and earlier this year announced plans to essentially double its global footprint in three years by adding 600
stores. The U.S. market is likely to see at least 20 of these new stores in 2016, particularly as Forever 21
begins to roll out its new, smaller F21 Red concept. The company last month opened a 22,000 s.f. F21 Red
store in Southern California and so far has about 10 of these stores in operation.
Zara and Uniqlo will not be left out of the mix, with Uniqlo planning to follow up this year’s 15 openings
with another 10 to 15 U.S. openings during 2016. Zara opened about 100 stores globally during the first
half of the year and plans to open more than a dozen in the U.S. this year. Look for the Spanish retailer to
follow up with similar plans in 2016. Zara and Uniqlo might not keep up with H&M in terms of numbers of
openings in the American market, but both will be decidedly competitive. Each chain will open a store later
this year in the Bellevue Square shopping center east of Seattle. Zara’s 26,000 s.f. store in Bellevue Square
will be its second in the Seattle area while Uniqlo’s opening will mark the chain’s debut in the state of
Washington.
C‐STORE COMPETITION HEATS UP NATIONWIDE
Company Name 7‐Eleven Streetfront, inline (Ranked by 2015 openings)
Preferred Square Footage Openings Notes
2,000 to 3,000 s.f. 300
Chain will keep pace with last year’s expansion and there is 1,800 to 2,000 s.f. little reason to think its growth rate will change in the near future. Looks to grow in major and mid‐range markets nationwide. Continued on Next Page
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Crittenden’s Retail Space™
Page 3
C‐STORE COMPETITION HEATS UP NATIONWIDE Company Name Circle K Casey’s General Store RaceTrac RaceWay Murphy USA Traditional Express Kiosk The Corner Store Wawa QuikTrip Kwik Trip Love’s Travel Stops Kum & Go (Ranked by 2015 openings)
Preferred Square Footage Openings Notes
3,600 to 4,500 s.f.
300
Total number of openings includes acquisitions and independent operators. During its fiscal 2016 Q1, which ended July 19, parent company Alimentation Couche‐Tarde opened 13 company‐operated locations and acquired 26. Although merchandise and service revenues dropped in both Europe and Canada, U.S. revenues rose significantly, at least partly as a result of its purchase of The Pantry late last year. Regardless, the U.S. looks to be a good bet for a lion’s share of its expansion efforts. The company will likely look nationwide for growth – including acquisitions – but should specifically target the West Coast. 3,700 to 4,200 s.f.
70‐100
Targets annual growth pace of 4% to 6% square footage growth, which should stay steady if recent results are an indicator. During its first quarter, ended July 31, the company reported a rise in comps for all categories, including fuel. Prepared foods, which is of growing interest to all chains, shows particular promise, with a comps increase of 10.3 percent and an average margin of 62.5 percent. Will likely avoid major markets in favor of smaller towns with less competition. Look for growth particularly in the Midwest and South. 6,000 s.f. 65
Looks to split growth between its corporate stores and the 3,000 s.f. franchised RaceWay banner. Typically grows primarily in familiar markets in the Southeast and Texas. Company needs 1 to 2‐acre sites.
60‐70
Growth pace should match last year’s. Look for the chain to 1,200 s.f. continue at a steady rate going forward, focusing primarily 600 to 2,400 s.f. on familiar markets in the Southeast, Southwest and 200 to 800 s.f.
Midwest.
4,000 to 6,000 s.f.
45‐55
Opened a new 365,000 s.f. distribution center that will service its more than 600 Texas locations and will likely put it in a strong position to further grow in the South and Southeast. Look for the chain to also grow in Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Wyoming. 4,000 to 6,000 s.f.
40‐45
Looks to be aggressive in Florida and throughout the Mid‐
Atlantic. Opened its 50th store in the Sunshine State last year and already has firm plans for an additional 50 openings in the state.
4,300 to 5,700 s.f.
40‐45
Targets familiar markets throughout the Midwest, Southwest and Southeast. Looks primarily for freestanding pads.
6,500 s.f. 30
Chain opened seven stores in the Duluth, Minn., area last year, and another six will open there this year. Looks to add 37 stores throughout Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin next year and will settle into an annual growth pace of 30 openings after 2016.
8,000 to 10,000 s.f.
30
Opened a store in Lubbock, Texas, last month and debuted in Maryland. Also opened locations in Arkansas, Indiana and Missouri this year. Typically opens along major highways throughout the Midwest, Mid‐Atlantic and Sun Belt regions.
3,500 to 5,000 s.f.
20‐25
Chain has opened stores this year in Arkansas, Colorado and Iowa. It also acquired three independent convenience stores in Des Moines, Iowa. Look for the company to continue on a similar growth pace going forward.
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Page 4
Crittenden’s Retail Space™
WOMEN’S ACTIVE WEAR CHAINS COMPETE FOR MARKET SHARE
Yoga-inspired women’s active wear leader lululemon already has to peek in the rearview mirror to see Gap
Inc.’s Athleta storming up behind it. While VF Corp’s Lucy Activewear seems content to stay put at fewer
than 100 locations, Australia’s Lorna Jane should stay aggressive and chase U.S. market share. Also look
for trendy New York upstart — Yogasmoga — to quietly move to 12 locations in five Northeastern states
by the end of the year. The young retailer, which was founded in 2013, looks to become even more
aggressive next year.
lululemon will not give up its industry lead as it stays aggressive with an annual, net opening pace in the
U.S. of 35 to 40 new stores. Showing its prowess as a seasoned industry specialist, its second quarter
comps rose 6 percent and net revenue increased 16 percent. Look for the company, which usually takes
about 2,700 s.f., to also open some stores under its ivivva athletica brand, which occupies approximately
2,200 s.f.
While Gap Inc. can be pleased with a renaissance at its Old Navy brand, former catalogue retailer Athleta
has proven to be a success story with lots of room to grow. Many of Gap’s brands are likely at or near
saturation, while Athleta should have plenty of opportunities left nationwide. The chain has plans for 40 to
50 openings by the end of this year and there is no reason to expect any significant slowdown anytime
soon. Stores will likely open in major and secondary markets. The chain already has several stores in the
pipeline for 2016, including an opening in the Southlake Town Square shopping center in the Dallas/Ft.
Worth market.
Also look for Australia-based Lorna Jane to make some inroads. The chain has now grown to close to 50
stores in the U.S. and should stay aggressive going forward. Lorna Jane has set growth plans for this year at
30 to 40 new stores. So far the chain has a presence in Arizona, California, Nevada, Oregon, Texas and
Washington, with the Golden State being its most heavily penetrated by far.
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Crittenden makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information published in Crittenden Retail Tenants™. Crittenden uses only those sources
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Crittenden Retail Tenants Directory
Athleta
Athleta
Gap, Inc.
Apparel & Accessories (Women's)
90 Locations
San Francisco, CA
FLOOR PLAN SIZE(S) 3,000 to 5,000 s.f.
PREFERRED PROPERTY Downtown or Streetfront, Power Center, Regional
Mall
TERRITORY Nationwide
GROWTH YEAR
2015
2014
2013
NEW LOCATIONS
40 - 50
40 - 50
30
LEASING TERMS 10-Year Primary, Options
CO-BRANDS Gap, GapKids, babyGap, GapBody, Banana
Republic, Old Navy, Intermix
Contacts
Main Contact
David Zoba
SVP, Global Real Estate
2 Folsom St.
San Francisco, CA 94105
(415) 427-3043
[email protected]
http://www.athleta.com/
North America
Todd Powers
VP, Real Estate
2 Folsom St.
San Francisco, CA 94105
(415) 427-2996
Fax: (415) 427-4015
[email protected]
Copyright 2015 Crittenden Research, Inc. Cannot be reproduced in any form whatsoever.
Crittenden Retail Tenants Directory
Banana Republic
Banana Republic
Gap Inc.
Apparel & Accessories
540 Locations
San Francisco, CA
FLOOR PLAN SIZE(S) 3,500 to 7,000 s.f.
PREFERRED PROPERTY Downtown or Streetfront, Lifestyle Center,
Manufacturer Outlet Center, Regional Mall
TERRITORY Nationwide
LEASING TERMS 10-Year Primary, Options
CO-BRANDS Gap, GapKids, babyGap, GapBody, Athleta, Old
Navy, Intermix
Contacts
Main Contact
David Zoba
SVP, Global Real Estate
2 Folsom St.
12th Floor
San Francisco, CA 94105
(415) 427-3043
[email protected]
http://www.gapinc.com/
Todd Powers
VP, Real Estate
2 Folsom St.
12th Floor
San Francisco, CA 94105
(415) 427-2996
Fax: (415) 427-4015
[email protected]
Copyright 2015 Crittenden Research, Inc. Cannot be reproduced in any form whatsoever.
Crittenden Retail Tenants Directory
Forever 21
Forever 21
Forever 21 Inc.
Apparel & Accessories
470 Locations
Los Angeles, CA
FLOOR PLAN SIZE(S) 15,000 to 150,000 s.f.
PREFERRED PROPERTY Downtown or Streetfront, Shopping Center,
Lifestyle Center, Regional Mall
TERRITORY Nationwide
LEASING TERMS 10-Year Primary
CO-BRANDS F21 Red, Love21, XXI, Heritage 1981
Contacts
http://www.forever21.com/
Luis Barrientos
Director of Real Estate
3880 N. Mission Road
Room 3080
Los Angeles, CA 90031
(213) 741-8209
[email protected]
Copyright 2015 Crittenden Research, Inc. Cannot be reproduced in any form whatsoever.
Crittenden Retail Tenants Directory
Gap
Gap
Gap Inc.
Apparel & Accessories
918 Locations
San Francisco, CA
FLOOR PLAN SIZE(S) 7,100 to 12,000 s.f.
PREFERRED PROPERTY Downtown or Streetfront, Shopping Center,
Lifestyle Center, Mall or Food Court, Manufacturer
Outlet Center, Regional Mall
TERRITORY Nationwide
NOTES Growth total includes Gap, GapKids, babyGap
and GapBody.
CO-BRANDS GapKids, babyGap, GapBody, Athleta, Banana
Republic, Old Navy, Intermix
Contacts
Main Contact
David Zoba
SVP, Global Real Estate
2 Folsom St.
12th Floor
San Francisco, CA 94105
(415) 427-3043
[email protected]
http://www.gapinc.com/
North America
Todd Powers
VP, Real Estate
2 Folsom St.
12th Floor
San Francisco, CA 94105
(415) 427-2996
Fax: (415) 427-4015
[email protected]
Copyright 2015 Crittenden Research, Inc. Cannot be reproduced in any form whatsoever.
Crittenden Retail Tenants Directory
H&M
H&M (Hennes & Mauritz)
Hennes & Mauritz Group
Apparel & Accessories
320 Locations
New York, NY
FLOOR PLAN SIZE(S) 16,000 to 57,000 s.f.
PREFERRED PROPERTY Downtown or Streetfront, Regional Mall
TERRITORY Nationwide
GROWTH YEAR
2015
2014
2013
NEW LOCATIONS
50 - 60
51
40
LEASING TERMS 10-Year Primary, Options (10 Years)
Contacts
http://www.hm.com/
Kai Aejmelaeus
Head of Expansion North America
215 Park Ave. S.
15th Floor
New York, NY 10003
(855) 466-7467
[email protected]
Copyright 2015 Crittenden Research, Inc. Cannot be reproduced in any form whatsoever.
Crittenden Retail Tenants Directory
Lorna Jane
Lorna Jane USA
Lorna Jane USA Inc.
Apparel & Accessories (Women's)
24 Locations
Santa Monica, CA
FLOOR PLAN SIZE(S) 1,200 to 3,000 s.f.
PREFERRED PROPERTY Shopping Center, Lifestyle Center, Regional Mall
TERRITORY Nationwide
GROWTH YEAR
2015
2014
NEW LOCATIONS
30 - 40
25 - 30
Contacts
http://www.lornajane.com/
Scott Lifschultz
President
SPL Realty Partners
1540 7th St.
Suite 208
Santa Monica, CA 90401
(310) 576-0630
[email protected]
Copyright 2015 Crittenden Research, Inc. Cannot be reproduced in any form whatsoever.
Crittenden Retail Tenants Directory
lucy activewear
lucy activewear
VF Corp.
Apparel & Accessories (Women's)
64 Locations
Portland, OR
FLOOR PLAN SIZE(S) 1,800 to 2,200 s.f.
PREFERRED PROPERTY Downtown or Streetfront, Lifestyle Center,
Manufacturer Outlet Center, Regional Mall
TERRITORY Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut,
District of Columbia, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana,
Kansas, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,
Minnesota, Nevada, Oregon, Texas, Virginia,
Washington
GROWTH YEAR
2013
NEW LOCATIONS
6
LEASING TERMS 10-Year Primary
CO-BRANDS 7 For All Mankind, Ella Moss, Lee, Nautica,
JanSport, Wrangler, Eagle Creek, The North
Face, Vans, Timberland, John Varvatos, Splendid
Contacts
http://www.lucy.com/
Rob Groscup
Director of Real Estate
6550 Katella Ave.
Cypress, CA 90603
(714) 889-6100 x6127
[email protected]
Copyright 2015 Crittenden Research, Inc. Cannot be reproduced in any form whatsoever.
Crittenden Retail Tenants Directory
lululemon
lululemon athletica
lululemon athletica Inc.
Apparel & Accessories (Women's)
175 Locations
Vancouver, BC
FLOOR PLAN SIZE(S) 2,750 s.f. (Full line stores); 700 to 1,000 s.f.
(Showroom); 2,200 s.f. (ivivva athletica)
PREFERRED PROPERTY Downtown or Streetfront, Lifestyle Center,
Manufacturer Outlet Center, Regional Mall
TERRITORY Nationwide
GROWTH YEAR
2014
2013
NEW LOCATIONS
35 - 40
31
CO-BRANDS ivivva athletica
Contacts
http://www.lululemon.com/
Wendy MacKenzie
Showroom and Leasing Specialist,
North America
1818 Cornwall Ave.
Suite 400
Vancouver, BC V6J 1C7
(604) 732-6124
Fax: (604) 874-6124
[email protected]
Wynn Spencer
VP, Store Development
1818 Cornwall Ave.
Suite 400
Vancouver, BC V6J 1C7
(604) 732-6124
Fax: (604) 874-6124
[email protected]
Copyright 2015 Crittenden Research, Inc. Cannot be reproduced in any form whatsoever.
Crittenden Retail Tenants Directory
Old Navy
Old Navy
Gap Inc.
Apparel & Accessories
950 Locations
San Francisco, CA
FLOOR PLAN SIZE(S) 15,000 to 19,000 s.f.
PREFERRED PROPERTY Shopping Center, Lifestyle Center, Power Center
TERRITORY Nationwide
CO-BRANDS Gap, babyGap, GapKids, GapBody, Banana
Republic, Athleta, Intermix
Contacts
Main Contact
David Zoba
SVP, Global Real Estate
2 Folsom St.
12th Floor
San Francisco, CA 94105
(415) 427-3043
[email protected]
http://www.gapinc.com/
Todd Powers
VP, Real Estate
2 Folsom St.
12th Floor
San Francisco, CA 94105
(415) 427-2996
Fax: (415) 427-4015
[email protected]
Copyright 2015 Crittenden Research, Inc. Cannot be reproduced in any form whatsoever.
Crittenden Retail Tenants Directory
UNIQLO
UNIQLO USA
Fast Retailing Co. Ltd.
Apparel & Accessories
40 Locations
New York, NY
FLOOR PLAN SIZE(S) 30,000 to 67,000 s.f.; 90,000 s.f. (Flagship);
10,000 s.f. (Malls)
PREFERRED PROPERTY Downtown or Streetfront, Regional Mall
TERRITORY California, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia,
Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey,
New York, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia,
Washington
GROWTH YEAR
2016
2015
2014
2013
NEW LOCATIONS
10 - 15
15
10 - 20
12
NOTES Company wants to grow to 200 locations
nationwide by 2020.
Contacts
http://www.uniqlo.com/
Keiji Takeda
Development Manager
450 W. 14th St.
7th Floor
New York, NY 10014
(212) 359-8315
[email protected]
Copyright 2015 Crittenden Research, Inc. Cannot be reproduced in any form whatsoever.
Crittenden Retail Tenants Directory
Zara
Zara USA Inc.
Inditex Group
Apparel & Accessories
52 Locations
New York, NY
FLOOR PLAN SIZE(S) 15,000 to 31,000 s.f.
PREFERRED PROPERTY Downtown or Streetfront, Lifestyle Center,
Regional Mall
TERRITORY Nationwide
GROWTH YEAR
2014
NEW LOCATIONS
8 - 10
NOTES Zara looks mainly at urban metropolitan and
secondary markets along both coasts.
Contacts
http://www.zara.com/
Moises Costas
Director of Expansion, North & South
America
500 5th Ave.
Suite 400
New York, NY 10110
(212) 355-1415
Fax: (212) 754-1128
[email protected]
Frances Fernandez
Real Estate Representative
500 5th Ave.
Suite 400
New York, NY 10110
(212) 355-1415
Fax: (212) 754-1128
[email protected]
Copyright 2015 Crittenden Research, Inc. Cannot be reproduced in any form whatsoever.