Table of Contents Table of Contents Acknowledgments License Agreement and Disclaimer i vii x P a rt I: P r og ra m Ov e rv ie w Chapter 1: Introduction to CrimeStat 1.1 Uses of Sp a t ia l St a t ist ics in Cr im e Ana lysis Th e Crim eS tat III S pa t ia l S t a t is t ics P r ogr a m P r ogr a m Requ ir em en t s In st a llin g t h e P r ogra m St ep-by-s t ep In st r u ct ion s Op t ion s S h or t a p plica t ion s On -lin e H elp Ch a pt er 1 En dn ot es 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.10 Chapter 2: Quickguide to CrimeStat 2.1 I. D at a S e tu p P r im a r y F ile Secon da r y File Refer en ce File Mea su r em en t P a r a met er s 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.9 II. S p a t ia l D e s c r i p ti o n Spa t ia l Dis t r ibu t ion Dista nce Ana lysis I Dista nce Ana lysis II ‘H ot S pot ’ An a lysis ‘Hot Spot’ Ana lysis I ‘Hot Spot’ Ana lysis II 2.13 2.13 2.19 2.25 2.28 2.28 2.35 III. Spatial Mode ling In t er pola t ion Sp a ce-Tim e Ana lysis J our n ey t o Crim e Ana lysis 2.40 2.40 2.47 2.53 IV. Cri m e Tra ve l D e m a nd Cr im e Tr a vel Dem a n d Da t a P r ep ar a t ion Tr ip Gen er a t ion Tr ip Dis t r ibu t ion Mode S plit 2.59 2.60 2.61 2.69 2.88 i Table of Contents (continued) N et wor k As sign m en t F ile Wor ks h eet V. Op t io n s Dyn a m ic Da t a E xch a n ge (DDE ) Su pp or t Chapter 3: Entering Data into CrimeStat 2.97 2.103 2.106 2.106 3.1 Required Dat a P r im a r y F ile Secon da r y File Refer en ce File Mea su r em en t P a r a met er s Dis t a n ce Ca lcu la t ion s S avin g P a r a m et er s S ta t is t ica l Rou t in es an d Ou t pu t s A Tu t or ia l wit h t h e S a m ple Da t a S et E n dn ot es for Ch a pt er 3 3.3 3.6 3.15 3.17 3.23 3.28 3.31 3.32 3.32 3.37 Part II: Spatial Description Chapter 4: Spatial Distribution 4.1 Cen t r ogr a ph ic S t a t is t ics Mea n Cen t er Weigh t ed Mea n Cent er Media n Cent er Cen t er of Min im u m Dis t a n ce Sta nda rd Deviation of th e X an d Y Coordina tes St a n da r d Dis t a n ce Devia t ion St a n da r d Deviat ion a l Ellipse Geom et r ic Mea n H a r m on ic Mea n Aver a ge Den sit y Ou t pu t F iles S t a t is t ica l Tes t in g Directiona l Mean a n d Va r ian ce Convex H u ll Spa t ia l Au t ocor r ela t ion Mora n ’s I St a t ist ic Gea r y’s C S t a t ist ic Mor a n Cor r elogr a m E n dn ot es for Ch a pt er 4 ii 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.12 4.12 4.15 4.17 4.19 4.22 4.24 4.24 4.25 4.36 4.44 4.47 4.48 4.56 4.61 4.67 Table of Contents (continued) Chapter 5: Distance Analysis I and II 5.1 Nea r est Neighbor In dex K-or der Nea r est Neighbor In dex Linea r Nea r est Neighbor In dex K-or der Lin ea r Nea r est Neigh bor s Ripley’s K St a t ist ic As sign P r im a r y P oin t s t o Secon da r y P oin t s Dista nce Mat rices E n dn ot es for Ch a pt er 5 Chapter 6: ‘Hot Spot’ Analysis I 5.1 5.7 5.12 5.18 5.19 5.33 5.36 5.40 6.1 H ot Sp ot s Sta tistical Approaches to th e Measur ement of ‘Hot Spots’ Mode F u zzy m ode Nea r est Neigh bor H ier a r chical Clu st er in g Risk -ad jus t ed Nea r est Neigh bor H ier a r chical Clu st er in g E n dn ot es for Ch a pt er 6 Chapter 7: ‘Hot Spot’ Analysis II 6.1 6.1 6.8 6.8 6.14 6.36 6.53 7.1 Sp a t ial a n d Tem pora l An a lysis of Cr im e (STAC) by Rich a r d Block a n d Ca r olyn Re becca Block K-Mea n s P a r t it ion in g Clu st er in g An selin ’s Loca l Mor a n St a t is t ics Some Thought s on t he Concept of ‘Hot Spots’ E n dn ot es for Ch a pt er 7 7.1 7.19 7.29 7.36 7.41 Part III: Spatial Modeling Chapter 8: Kernel Density Interpolation 8.1 Ker n el Den sit y E st im a t ion Single Density Estima tes Du a l Dens ity E st ima t es Visu a lly P r esen t ing Ker n el Est ima t es Con clu sion E n dn ot es for Ch a pt er 8 Chapter 9: Space-Time Analysis 8.1 8.14 8.25 8.36 8.36 8.40 9.1 Mea su r em en t of Tim e in Crim eS tat Spa ce-Tim e In t er a ct ion Kn ox Ind ex Ma n t el Ind ex Sp a t ia l-te m por a l Moving Aver a ge 9.1 9.1 9.4 9.8 9.12 iii Table of Contents (continued) Corr ela t ed Wa lk An a lysis Accu r a cy of P r edict ion s E n dn ot es for Ch a pt er 9 9.14 9.36 9. 42 Chapter 10: Journey to Crime Estimation Loca t ion Th eor y Tr a vel Dem a n d Modelin g Tr a vel Beh a vior of Cr im in a ls Th e Crim eS tat J our n ey t o Crim e Rout in e Dis t a n ce Modelin g U sin g Ma t h em a t ica l F u n ct ion s Th e J our n ey t o Crim e Rout in e U sin g a Ma t h em a t ical F orm u la Dis t a n ce Modelin g U sin g a n E m pir ica lly Det er m in ed F u n ct ion Th e J our n ey t o Crim e Rout in e U sin g t h e Ca libr a t ed F ile Dra w Crime Trips How Accur at e are th e Methods? Ca u t ion a r y N ot es E n dn ot es for Cha pt er 10 10.1 10.1 10.2 10.7 10.17 10.18 10.41 10.43 10.61 10.68 10.68 10.76 10.79 Part IV: Crime Travel Demand Modeling Chapter 11: Overview of Crime Travel Demand Modeling Tr a vel Dem a n d F or eca s t in g Need for More Comp lex Tr a vel Model of Cr im e Cr im e Tr a vel Dem a n d F r a m ewor k Cr im e Tr a vel Defin it ion s Cr im e Tr a vel Dem a n d v. J our n ey t o Crim e Models v. Descr ip t ion Us es of a Crim e Tra vel Dem a n d Model Refer en ces on Tr a vel Dem a n d Modelin g E n dn ot es for Cha pt er 11 Chapter 12: Data Preparation for Crime Travel Demand Modeling Ch oice of a Zon a l System Obta ining Crim e Dat a Developin g a P r edict ive Model Obt a in in g La n d Us e Da t a Spa t ial Loca t ion Va r iables Definin g Policy or In t er vent ion Va r iables Wher e to Obta in Th ese Dat a ? Cr ea t in g a n In t egr a t ed Da t a S et Obta ining Net wor k Da t a Con clu sion E n dn ot es for Cha pt er 12 iv 11.1 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.7 11.11 11.13 11.15 11.18 11.19 12.1 12.1 12.8 12.19 12.22 12.23 12.24 12.25 12.26 12.27 12.37 12.38 Table of Contents (continued) Chapter 13: Trip Generation 13.1 Ba ck gr ou n d Modelin g Tr ip Gen er a t ion Ap pr oa ch es Towa r d s Tr ip Gen er a t ion Mod elin g Diagnostics Tests Addin g S pecia l Gen er a t or s Ad din g E xt er n a l Tr ip s Ba la n cin g P r edict ed Or igin s a n d P r edict ed Dest in a t ion s Su m m a r y of t h e Trip Gen er a t ion Model Th e Crim eS tat Tr ip Gen er a t ion Model Ca libra t e Model Ma k e Tr ip Gen er a t ion P r edict ion Ba la n ce P r edict ed Or igin s & Dest in a t ion s E xam ple Trip Gen er a t ion Model St r en gt h s a n d Wea k n esses of Regr ession Modelin g of Trip s S um m a r y E n dn ot es for Cha pt er 13 Chapter 14: Trip Distribution 13.1 13.1 13.6 13.18 13.25 13.26 13.27 13.28 13.28 13.30 13.33 13.35 13.36 13.54 13.57 13.58 14.1 Th eor et ica l Ba ckgr ou n d Th e Gr a vit y Model Tr a vel Im p ed a n ce Alter n a t ive Models: Int er venin g Opport u n ities Met h ods of E st im a t ion Crim eS tat Tr ip Dist r ibut ion Rou t ines Describe Origin-Destina tion Trips Ca libr a t e Im peda n ce F u n ct ion Set u p of Or igin-Dest ina t ion Model Th e Or igin-Dest ina t ion Model Compa red Observed & Pr edicted Trips Uses of Tr ip Dist r ibu t ion An a lysis E n dn ot es for Cha pt er 14 Chapter 15: Mode Split 14.1 14.4 14.7 14.12 14.13 14.14 14.15 14.21 14.26 14.37 14.43 14.66 14.70 15.1 Th eor et ica l Ba ckgr ou n d Ut ilit y of Tr a vel a n d Mode Ch oice Rela t ive Accessibilit y Crim eS tat Mode Split Tools Applyin g t h e Re la t ive Acces sibilit y F u n ct ion Usefuln ess of Mode Split Modelin g Lim it a t ions t o th e Mode Sp lit Met h odology Con clu sion s E n dn ot es for Cha pt er 15 v 15.1 15.1 15.9 15.22 15.27 15.33 15.35 15.36 15.37 Table of Contents (continued) Chapter 16: Network Assignment 16.1 Th eor et ica l Ba ckgr ou n d N et w or k s S hor t es t P a t h Algor it h m s Rout in g Algor it h m s Th e Crim eS tat Net work Ass ignm en t Rout in e Cr ime Types U ses of N et wor k As sign m en t Con clu sion s E n dn ot es for Cha pt er 16 Chapter 17: Case Studies in Crime Travel Demand Modeling by Richa r d Block a n d Da n H elm s I. Tra vel P a t t er n s of Chicago Robber y Offen der s by Rich a r d Block II. Applica t ion of Tr a vel Dem a n d Be h a vior Model on Crime Dat a from Las Vegas, Nevada by Da n H elm s References Appendix A: Dynamic Data Exchange Support Appendix B: Some Notes on the Statistical Comparison of Two Samples Appendix C: Ordinary Least Squares and Poisson Regression Models 16.1 16.2 16.9 16.30 16.31 16.46 16.46 16.48 16.49 17.1 17.1 17.25 R-1 A-1 B-1 C-1 by Lu c An selin vi Acknowledgments Crim eS tat III wa s developed u n der t h e dir ect ion of Dr . N ed Levin e of N ed L ev in e & Associates, H ou s t on , TX, fr om Gr a n t N o. 2002-I J -CX-0007, a wa r d ed by t h e N a t ion a l In st itu t e of J u st ice (NI J ), Office of J u st ice Pr ogra m s, US Depa r t m en t of J u st ice. The developer would lik e t o th a n k t h e m a n y in divid u a ls w h o cont r ibu t ed t o th is p r ogra m : 1. Mr . Long Doa n of Doan Cons u lt in g, Fa lls Ch u r ch, VA wh o was t h e origin a l pr ogra m m er for t h e pr oject . Mr. Doa n 's brillian ce in pr ogra m m ing was essen t ial t o t h e developm en t of t h e init ial pr ogra m . For t h is version, he h a d t h e r ole of en su r in g s ys t em in t egr a t ion . 2. Ms. H a iya n Ten g of H ou st on , TX, wh o wa s t h e pr im a r y p r ogr a m m er for ver sion 3.0. H er h igh level of p r ogr a m m in g com pet en ce a n d m a t h em a t ica l exper t ise wa s ess en t ial for t h e su ccessful com plet ion of t h e cr ime t r a vel deman d rout ines. 3. P r ofes sor Rich a r d Block of Loyola Un iver sit y a n d Mr . Da n iel H elm s of th e La w E n for cem en t Cor r ect ion s a n d Tech n ology Cen t er a t t h e Un iver sit y of Den ver wh o ser ved as cr imin a l ju st ice a dvisor s t o t h e pr oject . They played cr it ica l r oles in t es t in g t h e cr im e t r a vel d em a n d r ou t in es wit h da t a fr om Ch ica go a n d La s Vega s. They a r e co-a u t h or s of on e ch a pt er . 4. Pr ofessor Luc An selin of t h e Un ivers ity of Illinois a t Ur ban a -Cha m pa ign who pr ovided t ech n ica l ad vice a n d docu m en t a t ion on t h e r egres sion m odels u sed in t h e crim e t r a vel dem a n d m odel. 5. Pr ofessor P eter St oph er of t h e Un ivers ity of Sidney in Au st r a lia who pr ovided t echn ical a dvice on t h e crim e t r a vel dem a n d m odel. 6. Mr . Ph il Can t er of t h e Balt imore Cou n t y Police Depar t m ent , Towson , MD wh o ha s been wit h t h e pr oject sin ce its in cept ion. F or t h is r oun d, h e provided support an d dat a for a na lysis. 7. Ms. San dra Wort ha m of Wort ha m Design, Wilmington, DE who designed th e gr a ph ical icons u se d in t h e pr ogra m . 8. Mr . Ia n Ca h ill of Ca h ill S oft wa r e, Ot t a wa , On t a r io for pr ovidin g P ois son a n d OLS r egression m a xim u m likelihood code, based on h is MLE++ soft wa r e pa cka ge. h t t p://www .m a gm a .ca /~ca h ill. 9. Th e GNU pr oject libr a r y for pr ovidin g F-test a n d t -t est code. h t t p://www.gn u .org. 10. Dr . Ca r olyn Re becca Block of t h e Illin ois Cr im in a l J u st ice In for m a t ion Au t h or ity for pr ovidin g th e STAC rout ine. vii 11. Th e dedicat ed pr oject m a n a ger s a t t h e Ma pp in g a n d Ana lysis for P u blic Sa fet y Pr ogra m (MAP S) at NIJ : Ms. Debra St oe a n d Mr . Ron Wilson . They both su pp ort ed t h e pr oject t h r ough t h is d evelopm en t a n d p r ovided va lu a ble feedba ck on t h e n ew r out in es a n d t h eir u t ilit y. 12. All t h e ot h er in divid ua ls fr om t h e MAP S u n it wh o h a ve s up por t ed th e p roject in ea r lier st a ges: for t h e secon d ver sion , Ms. E lizabet h Gr off of th e In st it u t e of La w a n d J u st ice, Mr . E r ic J efferis of th e U n iver sit y of Akr on, a n d P r ofessor Rober t La n gwort h y of th e U n iver sit y of Ala sk a ; an d, for t h e firs t vers ion , Ms. Cin dy Mam a lian a n d Dr . Na n cy LaVigne of t h e Ur ba n In st itu t e. 13. To t h e individu a ls of t h e Balt imore Met r opolita n Cou n cil wh o pr ovided n et wor k a n d oth er da t a on bot h Balt imore Coun t y an d t h e City of Balt imore, in part icular J acqueline Zee, Matt de Rouville, an d Gene Bandy. Than ks also t o Ala n Cla r k of t h e H ous t on-Ga lvest on Area Coun cil for m a k in g a va ila ble dat a on H oust on m otor vehicle cra shes. 14. To ind ividu a ls wh o ha ve pr ovided feed ba ck a n d in for m a t ion for t h is a n d pr eviou s ver sion s of Cr im eSt a t : P r ofessor E r ic Ren sh a w of t h e Un iver sit y of St r a t h clyde in Gla sgow, Mr . J ohn DeVoe of Siebel Sys t em s, P r ofessor J im LeBea u of Sou t h er n Illin ois U n iver sit y, Mr . Br ya n H ill of th e Glen da le (Ar izon a ) P olice Dep ar t m en t , P r ofes sor Ka r l Kim of t h e U n iver s it y of H a wa ii, Mr . Lu ben Dim ov of Lou is ia n a St a t e Un iver sit y, Mr . Weijie Zh ou of t h e H ou st on -Ga lvest on Ar ea Cou n cil, Mr . Keit h Alcock of Arizon a St a t e Un iver sit y, a n d Mr . Ma r t in H it t lem a n of Valley Com m u n it y College in Los Angeles . 15. To t h e individu a ls wh o pr ovided a exam ples for t h e m a n u a l: Rena t o Assu n ção, Cláu dio Bea t o, Br á u lio Silva of t h e F eder a l Un iver sit y of Mina s Ger a is in Belo H or izon t e, Bra zil; Da n iel Bibel of t h e Ma ssa ch u set t s St a t e P olice; Gilber t o Câm a r a , Silva n a Ama r a l, An t ônio Migu el V. Mont eir o, an d J osé A. Qu in t a n ilh a of t h e In st it u t o Na cion a l de P esqu isa s E sp a ciais in Br a zil; Sp en cer Ch a in ey of In foTech E n t er pr ises E u r ope in Lond on, E n gla n d; Rich a r d Cr ep ea u of Ap pa la ch ia n S t at e U n iver s it y; J a is h a n ka r Ka r u p pa n n a n of t h e Un iver sit y of Ma dr a s in Chep a u k, In dia ; Yon gmei Lu of Sout h west Texa s St a t e Un iver sit y; Da vid McGr a t h of t h e J oh n st own Ca st le Re sea r ch Cen t r e in Wexfor d, Ir ela n d; Diet r ich Ober wit t ler a n d Ma r c Wiesen h ü t t er of t h e Ma x Pla n ck In st it u t e for F oreign a n d I n t er n a t ion a l Cr im in a l La w in F r eibu r g, Ger m a n y; Der ek P a u ls en of Appa la ch ia n St a t e Un iver sit y; Ga st on P ezzu ch i of t h e Bu en os Air es P r ovin ce P olice F or ce; Mik e Sa weda of th e Un iver sit y of Ott a wa ; Tak a h it o Sh im a da of t h e N a t ion a l P olice Agen cy in Ch iba , J a pa n ; Br en t Sn ook, P a u l Ta ylor & Cr a ig Be n n ell of t h e Un iver sit y of Liver pool, En gla n d; Ma t t h ew S t one of th e Ca liforn ia Dep a r t m en t of H ea lt h Ser vices, Ch a osh en g Zha n g of t h e N a t iona l Un iver sit y of Ir ela n d in Ga lwa y, Ir ela n d; Ma r t a A. Gu er r a of t h e Ce n t er s for Dis ea se Con t r ol a n d P r even t ion ; Rich a r d H osk in s of t h e St a t e of Wa sh in gt on Depa r t m en t of H ea lt h ; Tom viii Reynolds of t h e Un iver sit y of Texas S ch ool of P u blic H ea lth a lon g with Luc An selin, Rich a r d Block, Ca r olyn Block, P h il Ca n t er , Lon g Doa n , Dan iel H elms , J im LeBea u , Ron Wilson a n d Br yan H ill m en t ion ed a bove. 16. To t h e dozen s of in divid u a ls wh o pr ovided feedba ck a n d su ggest ion s for im p rovin g t h e p rogr a m . Th ey a r e, u n for t u n a t ely, t oo n u m er ou s t o m en t ion by n a m e. 17. F in a lly, t h is pr ogr a m is dedica t ed t o m y wife, Dr . C. E liza bet h Ca st r o, for bein g so pa t ien t a n d s u pp ort ive t h r ough out t h is long pr ocess. Sh e is t h e in spir a t ion for t h is wh ole effor t . ix License Agreement and Disclaimer Th is pr oject wa s su ppor t ed by Gr a n t No. 2002-IJ -CX-0007 a wa r ded by t h e Na t ion a l In st itu t e of J u st ice, Office of J u st ice Pr ogra m s, US Depa r t m en t of J u st ice. Poin t s of view in t h is docu m en t a r e t h os e of t h e a u t h or a n d d o n ot n eces sa r ily r ep r es en t t h e officia l position or policies of t h e US Depa r t m en t of J u st ice. Crim eS tat ® is a r egist er ed t r a dem a r k of Ned Levin e & Associa t es. Th e pr ogr a m is copyr igh t ed by an d t h e pr oper t y of Ned Levin e a n d Associat es a n d is int en ded for t h e u se of la w en for cem en t a gen cies , cr im in a l ju s t ice r es ea r ch er s , a n d ed u ca t or s . It ca n be dist r ibut ed freely for edu ca t ion a l or r esea r ch pu r poses, but ca n n ot be re-sold. It m u st be cit ed cor r ect ly in a n y p u blica t ion or r ep or t wh ich u s es r es u lt s fr om t h e p r ogr a m . Th e cor r ect cit a t ion is: Ned Levin e, Crim eS tat III: A S patial S tatistics Program for the An alysis of Crim e I ncid en t L oca tion s. N ed Levin e & As socia t es, H ou st on , TX, a n d t h e Na t ion a l In st itu t e of J u st ice, Wa sh ingt on , DC. Novem ber 2004. Th e Na t ion a l Ins t itu t e of J u st ice, Office of J u st ice Pr ogra m s, Un ited St a t es Depa r t m en t of J u st ice r eser ves a r oyalt y-fr ee, non-exclus ive, an d ir r evoca ble licen se t o r epr odu ce, publish , or ot h er wise u se, an d a u t h or ize ot h er s t o u se t h is pr ogra m for F eder a l gover n m en t pu r poses. Th is pr ogr a m ca n n ot be dis t r ibu t ed wit h ou t t h e per m is sion of bot h Ned Levin e a n d Ass ocia t es a n d t h e N a t iona l In st it u t e of J u st ice, except a s n ote d a bove. With r espect t o t h is soft wa r e a n d docu m en t a t ion , neit h er Ned Levin e a n d As socia t es , t h e U n it ed St a t es Gover n m en t n or a n y of t h eir r es pect ive em p loyees m a ke a n y wa r r a n t y, exp r ess or im plied, in clu din g bu t n ot lim it ed t o t h e wa r r a n t ies of m er ch a n t a bilit y an d fit n ess for a pa r t icu lar pu r pose. In n o event will Ned Levin e a n d Associa t es, t h e Un it ed St a t es Gover n m en t or a n y of t h eir r espect ive em ployees be lia ble for dir ect , in dir ect , s pecia l, in cid en t a l, or con sequ en t ia l d a m a ges a r is in g ou t of t h e u se or in a bilit y t o u s e t h e s oft wa r e or d ocu m en t a t ion . N eit h er N ed Levin e a n d As socia t es , t h e Un it ed St a t es Gover n m en t n or t h eir r espect ive em ployees a r e r espon sible for a n y cos t s in clu din g, bu t n ot lim it ed t o, t h ose in cu r r ed a s a r esu lt of los t pr ofit s or r even u e, loss of t im e or u se of soft wa r e, loss of da t a , t h e cost s of r ecover in g s u ch soft wa r e or da t a , t h e cost of substitu te softwa re, or oth er similar costs. Any actions t ak en or docum ents pr inted as a r esu lt of u sin g t h is s oft wa r e a n d it s a ccomp a n ying docu m en t a t ion r em a in t h e r espons ibility of t h e u ser . An y quest ion s a bou t t h e u se of t h is pr ogra m sh ou ld be directed t o eith er : Dr . Ned Le vine Ned Levin e & Associat es H ou st on , TX n ed@n edlevin e.com Mr . Ron Wils on Ma pp in g a n d An a lysis for P u blic Sa fet y P r ogra m Na t ion a l In st it u t e of J u st ice U. S. Dep a r t m en t of J u st ice 810 7th St, NW Was h ingt on , DC 20531 Ron a ld .Wilson @u sdoj.gov
© Copyright 2026 Paperzz