Environmental Stewardship via Landscape Conservation Planning, Yields Beneficial Results for Water Quality in an Agricultural Watershed by Stephanie Shantz A Thesis presented to The University of Guelph In partial fulfilment of requirements for the degree of Master of Landscape Architecture In Landscape Architecture Guelph, Ontario, Canada © Stephanie Shantz, May, 2016 ABSTRACT ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP VIA LANDSCAPE CONSERVATION PLANNING, YIELDS BENEFICIAL RESULTS FOR WATER QUALITY IN AN AGRICULTURAL WATERSHED Stephanie Shantz University of Guelph, 2016 Advisor: Professor R. Corry Agriculture is one of the largest non-point source polluters contributing to the degradation, toxicity, and damage of the Great Lakes. Trends in agricultural management practice have shifted over the decades to a more holistic system of conservation agriculture that functions on the tenets of landscape conservation planning, protecting the environment for future generations, while also protecting revenues and lifestyles of the people that work in agriculture. This study uses geophysical characteristics to reconfigure land cover in an agricultural watershed known to have water quality issues, while maintaining field boundaries and management, composition proportions, and it takes no land out of production. Using AnnAGNPS a base and designed scenario were created, run, compared, and analysed. The design resulted in a decrease of estimated parenthetical values of pollutants. Empirical results show that this design approach reduces the impact of agriculture on the environment while maintaining profitable production land. Working at this scale while using and producing empirical data, suggests water quality improvements are possible through evidence-based landscape architecture that maintains agricultural land covers changing only some of their locations. Acknowledgements I would like to thank my advisor Robert Corry for his guidance, advice, patience and encouragement throughout my thesis progress. To my friends and family, thank you for the support through this academic endeavour and always encouraging me to persevere and find inspiration when experimental components were delayed. iii Table of Contents ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................... ii Acknowledgements...................................................................................................... iii Table of Contents ......................................................................................................... iv List of Tables ............................................................................................................... vii List of Figures ............................................................................................................ viii 1.0 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Background ................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2. Scope of Study .............................................................................................................................. 3 1.3. Research Significance .................................................................................................................. 3 1.4. Thesis Structure ............................................................................................................................ 4 2.0 Literature Review ................................................................................................ 5 2.1. Basic Environmental Processes.................................................................................................... 5 2.1.1. Hydrologic Cycle ................................................................................................................... 5 2.1.2. Soil erosion and transport ..................................................................................................... 7 2.1.3. Pollution Transport .............................................................................................................. 10 2.2. Conservation Practices ............................................................................................................... 14 2.2.1. Landscape Conservation Planning ..................................................................................... 15 2.2.2. Current Practices to Mitigate Resource Problems .............................................................. 16 iv 2.2.3. Current Large Scale Reconfiguration .................................................................................. 25 2.2.4. Summary ............................................................................................................................. 32 2.3. Watershed models ...................................................................................................................... 33 2.3.1. 3.0 Distributed Models............................................................................................................... 34 Methodology ...................................................................................................... 38 3.1. Research Question and Hypothesis ........................................................................................... 38 3.2. Study Area Selection ................................................................................................................... 38 3.3. Description of the study area ...................................................................................................... 39 3.4. AnnAGNPS Data Requirements ................................................................................................. 41 3.4.1. Climate data ........................................................................................................................ 41 3.4.2. Geophysical data................................................................................................................. 42 3.4.3. Land Use Data .................................................................................................................... 43 3.4.4. Model Simulation Time Step ............................................................................................... 49 3.4.5. AnnAGNPS Cells ................................................................................................................ 49 3.5. Site Analysis ................................................................................................................................ 50 3.5.1. Adjacency ............................................................................................................................ 50 3.5.2. Geophysical characteristics ................................................................................................ 51 3.5.1. Land Use ............................................................................................................................. 57 3.6. Alternative Design ....................................................................................................................... 57 3.6.1. Design Method .................................................................................................................... 58 v 3.6.2. 4.0 Configuration Results .......................................................................................................... 61 Results ............................................................................................................... 63 4.1. Nitrogen ....................................................................................................................................... 63 4.2. Phosphorus ................................................................................................................................. 65 4.3. Sediment ..................................................................................................................................... 67 4.4. Water Yield .................................................................................................................................. 68 5.0 Discussion ......................................................................................................... 70 5.1. Nitrogen ....................................................................................................................................... 70 5.2. Phosphorus ................................................................................................................................. 71 5.3. Sediment ..................................................................................................................................... 75 5.4. Water Yield .................................................................................................................................. 78 5.5. Summary of Landscape Reconfiguration Results ....................................................................... 81 6.0 Conclusions ....................................................................................................... 83 6.1. Research Objective ..................................................................................................................... 83 6.2. Implications ................................................................................................................................. 83 6.3. Study limitations .......................................................................................................................... 86 6.4. Future Study ................................................................................................................................ 88 6.5. Conclusion................................................................................................................................... 90 7.0 Bibliography ...................................................................................................... 91 vi List of Tables Table 2.1 Example of LESA scoring ........................................................................................................... 32 Table 3.1 K ranges by soil texture .............................................................................................................. 43 Table 3.2 Interpreted ARI crop percentages ............................................................................................... 45 Table 3.3 Crop rotations by cropping system ............................................................................................. 45 Table 3.4 Randomization of the first year of rotations .................................................................................. 2 Table 3.5 K-factor reclassification ............................................................................................................... 52 Table 3.6 Slope classification ..................................................................................................................... 54 Table 3.7 Slope gradient reclassification .................................................................................................... 54 Table 3.9 Accumulation count ..................................................................................................................... 56 Table 3.8 Rotation ranking .......................................................................................................................... 57 Table 3.10 Field parameter scoring process............................................................................................... 58 Table 3.11 Area difference by rotation ........................................................................................................ 59 Table 3.12 Rotation changing process ....................................................................................................... 60 Table 4.1 Base to design nitrogen yield comparison .................................................................................. 63 Table 4.2 Percentage difference over 100% for N by AnnAGNPS cell ...................................................... 64 Table 4.3 Base to design phosphorus yield comparison ............................................................................ 65 Table 4.4 Percentage difference over 100% for P by AnnAGNPS cell ...................................................... 66 Table 4.5 Base to design sediment yield comparison ................................................................................ 67 Table 4.6 Percentage difference over100% for sediment particles by AnnAGNPS cell ............................. 68 Table 4.7 Base to design water yield comparison ...................................................................................... 69 Table 4.8 Percentage change over 100% for water by AnnAGNPS cell .................................................... 69 Table 5.1 Crop residue weight at 30% coverage of land area .................................................................... 79 vii List of Figures Figure 2.1 The Hydrological Cycle ................................................................................................................ 6 Figure 2.2 Spring melt erosion ...................................................................................................................... 8 Figure 2.3 Erosion Processes ....................................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. Figure 2.4 The Nitrogen Cycle .................................................................................................................... 12 Figure 2.5 Example of LESA scoring ............................................................ Error! Bookmark not defined. Figure 3.1 Grand River Watershed ............................................................................................................. 39 Figure 3.2 Canagagigue Creek and study site............................................................................................ 40 Figure 3.3 Rotational sequence creation ...................................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. Figure 3.4 AnnAGNPS generated cells ...................................................................................................... 50 Figure 3.5 Reclassified K-factor .................................................................................................................. 53 Figure 3.6 Reclassification of slope ............................................................................................................ 55 Figure 3.7 Slope accumulation ................................................................................................................... 56 Figure 3.8 Fields changed by the design .................................................................................................... 61 Figure 3.9 AnnAGNPS cells changed by the design .................................................................................. 62 viii 1.0 Introduction Chapter one gives a background on water in southern Ontario and the current problems that the Great Lakes are having. It outlines current government actions to take control of water pollution problems in the Great Lakes and places this study within that context. The scope of study is outlined while also providing the significance of this research. A brief overview of the thesis structure is also provided. 1.1. Background Water is vital to all life on our planet. Approximately 71% of the earth’s surface is covered in water, however only less than 1% of that water is fresh and drinkable (Mullen, 2012). Unfortunately, water has been used for centuries as a conduit to remove waste from our land, which contributes to the current and projected clean water shortages. Canada holds 7% of the world’s available fresh water reserves (Environment Canada, 2013a). However, most of that water flows north to the Arctic Ocean and is not useable by the large population in the south (Environment Canada, 2013b). Much of the surface water in the southern Canada is shared with the United States. This leads to many issues around water rights, water quality, and water source protection. Due to centuries of neglect and misuse, the Great Lakes have water quality issues. In some cases leading to the death of the entire lake (such as Lake Erie) or toxicity levels so high they are unfit for human use and deadly to most other creatures as well. High levels of chemicals and nutrient loading leading to hypoxia, toxic algae blooms, and nuisance/invasive species are serious problems in the Great Lakes (Environment Canada, 2013c). In 1972, the Canadian and United States governments collaborated to improve the health of the Great Lakes so they can again be used for the benefit of the public, to improve ecosystem health and water quality in a binational referendum called the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (GLWQA) (Environment Canada, 2013d). However, severe water quality issues continue, even with the efforts of both countries enacting the GLWQA. One example is a continued increase of toxic algae bloom 1 occurrences in Lake Erie, caused by high levels of phosphorus, some of which comes from agricultural sources. The Canadian government has taken further actions to clean up and try to prevent the pollution of our fresh water resource. In fact, prevention is the spearhead of the Canadian efforts to protect the environment (Environment Canada, 2013a). One area where the Ontario government, in conjunction with many other governments, has identified a place where pollution prevention could have a significant impact is in the agricultural landscape. Preventing pollution from agricultural land is identified by the Ontario government, as being critically important for water quality, stream water quality, nutrient over loading, and soil loss; all issues that have been raised to be of special concern (Harker, et al., 2013; Sustainable Development Office, 2010). Harker et al (2013) directly links decreased water quality and environmental degradation to agricultural practices that create large scale landscape alterations and require a high consumption of water. Almost all aspects of agriculture impact water quality: “Agricultural activities that cause [non-point source] NPS pollution include confined animal facilities, grazing, plowing, pesticide spraying, irrigation, fertilizing, planting, and harvesting. The major agricultural NPS pollutants result from these activities are sediment, nutrients, pathogens, pesticides, and salts. Agricultural activities also can damage habitat and stream channels. Agricultural impacts on surface water and ground water can be minimized by properly managing activities that can cause NPS pollution” (US Environmental Protection Agency, 2012, Para. 3). As rain collects and moves through the highly altered agricultural landscape, chemicals and nutrients from the soil are transported via overland flow. Runoff carrying pollutants drains off the land, into drainage networks and streams which flow together into rivers and eventually (in southern Ontario) into the Great Lakes before making their way to the ocean. As water volume increases so too does the pollutant load. While the amount of pollution coming from each individual farm may be small, when all the agricultural lands are combined (as naturally occurs via the water system) it becomes a huge 2 problem. Furthermore some agricultural practices such as row crop agriculture increase erosion and the run off of sediments laced with nutrients and toxins because of additional nutrient inputs. These practices continue and are increasing in popularity because they produce predictable farm revenues. 1.2. Scope of Study This thesis investigates a way for farmers to continue to farm with current practices and takes no land out of production but still reduce pollution inputs into stream waters. It fills an under developed niche in the body of literature, which has many studies of the positive, and dramatic, effect of inserting buffer strategies into the landscape and returning farmland to forest. And while this is great for water quality, its shine is diminished by the fact that most farmers cannot afford to, nor would be willing to, give up so much farmable land for the environment at their own expense. It investigates how designing at a sub-watershed scale, reconfiguring crop rotations to better suit geophysical characteristics, while keeping all of the farmed land in production, an idea that should be more amenable to the realities of farming in Ontario, may lead to decreases in erosion, keep more nutrients on the fields, which may reduce the amount of agri-pollutants entering the stream network. If calculated over many watersheds it could have a significant cumulative effect on water quality. It seems like a small part of such a large-scale problem, but as Ikerd (1993, p.153) pointed out, “our landscape is a system interconnected and a measure of the cumulative effect of each individual component”. 1.3. Research Significance The appropriate configurations of landscape elements based on features in the watershed may decrease the amount of pollutants leaving the land and entering into the water system. This approach to watershed design could dampen the cumulative effect of pollution and improve water quality all along the stream network. More research needs to be done and landscape architects, with their knowledge of land sustainability, could be leaders in promoting research and re- 3 designing the highly altered, agricultural landscapes for sustainability, food production and (eventually) providing clean drinkable water for future generations while continuing to produce high quality foods. 1.4. Thesis Structure This thesis consists of six chapters. Chapter one introduces the current state of our water, the problem statement, purpose of the study and how this research will impact the current body of knowledge. Chapter two reviews literature about the environmental processes that affect the agricultural landscape, how nutrients are transported through the landscape, and different models that simulate and estimate nutrient loading from agricultural watersheds. Chapter three outlines the research question and possible outcomes to the study, while also identifying and describing the attributes of the study area. This chapter also details the data needed for the modeling software, and outlines the process for creating the data sets. Analysis of the site for capabilities and restraints are outlined and the design rules presented. In chapter four the simulated designed scenario results are documented for all of the nutrients, pollutants, and water that are yielded from the watershed. A presentation on how they differ from the baseline scenario is also provided. Chapter five discusses and analyses the results from the baseline to designed scenario. Possible reasons why the estimated yields values resulted are presented and placed within other studies of a similar nature. Chapter six presents a summary of the thesis, discusses study limitations, implications of this thesis, and presents the thesis conclusions derived from the designed scenario results and the current state of agricultural needs and practices. It also identifies future study opportunities that have become illuminated through this research. 4 2.0 Literature Review Basic environmental processes are presented to give a brief and focused description of the natural processes that affect water in the landscape. Hydrologic cycle, erosion and transport and nutrient movement in an agricultural setting are all described, illuminating how agricultural practices affect our water system. Current overarching concepts of conservation, conservation in agriculture, and different scales of design in the agricultural landscape are presented. Two simulation models considered for this study are described and compared. 2.1. Basic Environmental Processes This thesis focuses on water quality in an agricultural watershed. Key to this thesis is the understanding of how water moves across the landscape and its kinetic force and capability of transporting soil. In the agricultural landscape additives are used to amend the soil and produce higher yields. Comprehending the fate of these nutrients and how they affect water quality are the secondary conceptual fundamentals of this thesis. 2.1.1.Hydrologic Cycle The hydrologic cycle is the complete system of water within the biosphere. Evaporation and transpiration converts water near the earth’s surface. Evaporation is the process of water molecules changing from liquid to vapour. Transpiration is the process of vegetation releasing water from their leaves back into the atmosphere. Condensation occurs, which is water vapour cooling as it rises in the atmosphere and converts back to a liquid state. It then collects to forms clouds, which travel and collect more water vapour until saturated. Once saturated, clouds produce precipitation that falls back to the earth’s surface, replenishing surface water and water bodies. When a precipitation event occurs water hits the earth’s surface and becomes runoff or infiltrates into the ground. Runoff occurs when there is enough excess water to begin to flow across the soil surface. The severity of runoff depends on how fast and how much precipitation is converted into overland flow (runoff). Surfaces with higher slopes and less porous soil generate 5 more runoff, while surfaces with smaller slopes and more porous soil increase the chance of percolation. Infiltration and percolation of water into the soil profile will be used by plants, moving horizontally as sub surface flow or vertically up as capillary action of roots or through evapotranspiration, or down to recharge ground water. Ground water is subterranean water that is stored in the gaps between rock layers, underground streams, and soil. In Canada, part of the hydrologic cycle is frozen during our winter season. Precipitation during winter falls as snow or ice and is stored on the ground until spring. When temperatures increase in spring snow and ice begin to melt and mark the beginning of the “spring melt”. This event produces large amounts of water which can result in runoff and flooding. This occurs because frozen soils are like impervious pavements; they do not accept any water through infiltration. Spring runoff causes erosion as the surface of the soil warms and thin layers of the soil profile are thawed while the under layers are still a solid frozen unit. Soil particles, and the nutrients bound to them, are transported to streams, rivers, lakes and eventually the ocean. Figure 2.1 The Hydrological Cycle A visualization to demonstrates how precipitation falls, is used, moved and returned to the atmosphere (Amin, 2015) 6 2.1.2.Soil erosion and transport Soil erosion is a naturally occurring process moving soil from one location to another via wind, water, and ice. Three distinct processes encompass erosion: soil detachment and entrainment, transport, and deposition. Soil detachment is when a soil particle is dislodged from its surrounding soil aggregate (Queensland Government, 2015). Detachment can occur by rain drop splashing, moved by snow, and lifted by wind. Rain drops have enough force to separate soil particles as it hits the soil. Snow has potential energy to cause erosion. When the snow melts there are high volumes of water that flow over the soil surface picking up soil particles as it flows (Ritter, 2012). If wind gusts are fast enough, wind can also lift dry soil particles into the air and move them over great distances (Ritter, 2012). Entrainment is the process of particles being surrounded by water molecules, and is more of a co-process than its own distinct class within erosion (Pidwirny, 2013). Once particles have been detached they are lifted, entrained, and are considered to be ready for transport. There are four types of transport: suspension, saltation, traction, and solution. Suspension is when soil particles are lifted from their location and suspended above their place of origin, but do not touch the surface of origin (Pidwirny, 2013). Saltation is when particles move from their surface of origin to water or air quickly and repeatedly in short cycles (Wind Erosion, 2016). This generally produces more detachment and entrainment of new particles. Traction is the movement of particles, essentially shuffling, rolling, or sliding across the soil surface (Wind Erosion, 2016). This can happen in all types of erosion mediums: air, water, snow, and ice. Solution is the dissolving of particles into an aqueous solution as individual ions. Deposition is the final stage of erosion when particles being transported drop out of their erosion medium and are deposited onto the land, effectively ending the movement of particles (Pidwirny, 2013). This occurs when there is a loss of velocity of the medium or something disrupts the flow. Slowing of the erosive medium can occur when the slope changes to a gentler one that does not promote fast flowing water and allows particles to drop out of solution. Disruption can occur when the flow hits something such as rocks, vegetation, or other obstructions such as streams. In the 7 case of wind, slope changes, barriers and other factors effecting wind speed act in concert to reduce velocity (Pidwirny, 2013). In Ontario, soil erosion by water is a major issue in agricultural landscapes. Determining factors of the rate and scale of soil erosion by water are: rainfall, runoff, soil erodibility, slope gradient and length, cropping, vegetation type, and tillage practices. Rain fall intensity and duration affect erosion potential. Short intense rainstorms, such as thundershowers, usually produce noticeable soil erosion. Long and less intense rainstorms are less noticeable, however can cause high rates of soil loss, especially when viewed over time. Frozen winter conditions store large amounts of potential water as snow. As temperatures increase soil surface thaws as the soil below remains frozen and impervious. This exposes this thin layer to erosion when water from melting snow follows the flow path, picking up soil particles, and transporting it downhill. Figure 2.2 Spring melt erosion Soil characteristics determine soil erodibility. Erodibility, the capacity of a soil to resist erosion, is determined by soil texture, organic matter, and infiltration capability (Wall G. , Coote, Pringle, & Shelton, 2002). Light particles such as fine sand, clay, silt, and organic matter are easily 8 detached by rain drops and transported as excess water runs over the surface of the soil and moves downhill. Tillage and management practices in agricultural landscapes affect the amount and type of organic matter left on the surface of the land or incorporated into the top layer of soil. Organic matter affects soil texture, structure, moisture, and increases soil resistance to erosion. Field management practices can cause compaction of the soil which decreases infiltration capacity. This combined with slope gradient and length set soils to even higher risk categories of erodibility. The risk of water erosion increases with steeper and longer slopes. Large volumes of water accumulate on long slopes increasing velocity as runoff flows downhill. Faster flowing water entrains more particles, causing a scouring of the flow path and further erosion. This can be disrupted though. Vegetation and crops can change the impact and flow of water. Perennial vegetation provides a level of protection from erosion compared to annual vegetation because perennial species remain in the fields for more than just one year (as with annual vegetation). This reduces soil disturbance and the amount of time that the soil is bare. Crop systems that have little soil coverage do not protect the soil from raindrop impact. On the other hand, fields that cover the soil with cover crops or crop residues have the capability of shielding the soil and reducing raindrop impact, disrupting the erosion process. Field management systems used on a farm determine the use of cover crops and crop residues. The amount of crop residues left is governed by the harvesting and tillage practice. Conventional tillage systems leave little to no crop residue on the surface of the field, which is not enough to mitigate erosion. Conservation tillage systems leave a minimum of 30% or more crop residues on fields. Thirty percent residue retention is enough to protect the soil from overland flow, rain impact, and snow melt events, decreasing erosion potential (Ritter, 2012). 9 Figure 2.3 Erosion Processes 2.1.3.Pollution Transport Nutrients travel from one place to the next via soil and water. Soil transports nutrients when they attach to soil particles through chemical processes. This bonding is different from one nutrient to the next and the capability of each nutrient to attach to soil varies. Nutrients dissolved in solution are carried in water that moves as overland flow. Each nutrient varies in how readily it dissolves and can be transported via water. The transport of nutrients is directly linked to erosion and the hydrologic cycle. Nitrogen and phosphorus are the two key nutrients to understand the detrimental effects of agricultural runoff. Nitrogen (N) Plant available nitrogen is a deterministic nutrient for crop growth and productivity. This nutrient is applied to almost all crops as it is usually a limiting factor for crop development and yield (Nitrogen cycle, 2008). There are not enough natural sources of available nitrogen to meet crop needs, making the application of inorganic fertilizers necessary for proper plant growth and high yields. Ammonium nitrogen and nitrate N are the two types of nitrogen that are available to plants (Lamb, Fernandez, & Kaiser, 2014). Ammonium N is a solid form and is spread via broadcast 10 application or side dressing that can be left on the surface or incorporated into the soil. Ammonium N adsorbs to soil particles because of its positive charge, creating attached nitrogen, making it less mobile and unlikely to leach through the soil profile immediately after application (Lamb, Fernandez, & Kaiser, 2014). Bacterial biological processes in the soil convert ammonium nitrate into nitrate nitrogen starting two to three days after application, with full conversion to nitrate nitrogen approximately 30 days after application (PennState Extention, 2015). Nitrate N is generally in an aqueous solution. Liquid form nitrogen is spread in two ways, surface and subsurface. Nitrate nitrogen does not readily attach to soil particles because of its molecular charge, and readily dissolves into water, making dissolved nitrogen (Lamb, Fernandez, & Kaiser, 2014). This allows applied nitrate nitrogen to move freely through the soil profile and be susceptible to leaching. Liquid nitrogen fertilizer moves into the soil with precipitation as water percolates into the soil. Surface applied liquid nitrogen that has just been sprayed can be carried away by runoff before it moves into the soil. When dissolved nitrogen percolates into the soil profile some is immobilized by organisms, while a majority continues through the soil profile to the root zone of crops. Nitrogen continues to move past the root zone to tile drains, and in some cases where there are no tile drains, into the water table causing ground water contamination (leaching). This is because it is not easily immobilized by minerals in the soil. Nitrogen is not as readily adsorbed to soil particles compared to other nutrients such as phosphorus, however certain forms of nitrogen fertilizer, such as ammonium nitrate, readily attach to soil particles (Retallack, 2001; Lamb, Fernandez, & Kaiser, 2014). When erosion occurs during precipitation events attached nitrogen moves with eroded sediment. Plants readily uptake nitrogen and use it in their development stages, however due to its highly mobile nature nitrogen that is not used by crops before precipitation events has a tendency to be moved in the landscape causing high quantities in streams. This results in an eutrophic state within water shifting the natural rate and balance of nutrients and plant growth. Fast growing plants, such as invasive and toxic algae, out compete other native species, causing massive algae blooms that deplete oxygen levels within water and degrade overall water quality for aquatic species and human use. 11 Figure 2.4 The Nitrogen Cycle Phosphorus Phosphorus is added to the soil naturally through weathering of phosphorus-containing rocks. In agricultural settings phosphorus is added to the system by mineral fertilizers, plant residues, and manures. Soluble phosphorus is what is used by plants. Phosphorus is less mobile in the landscape compared to nitrogen because it is highly reactive to calcium, iron, and aluminum, all of which bind phosphorus and make it immobile (Retallack, 2001). The movement of phosphorus through the landscape affects water quality. Application of phosphorus to meet crop needs is used by plants, moves through the soil, and leaches into tile drain water. Crops only require certain amount of phosphorus, making excess a problem in runoff and tile drain discharge. Tile drain water is then discharged into drainage ditches and ends up in stream water. When a rain event occurs right after the application of phosphorus, the 12 nutrient has not had enough time to infiltrate into the soil, be used by plants, or be immobilized by soil minerals and is moved across the landscape in runoff ending directly in streams. Plant residues that are not incorporated into the soil release phosphorus to the soil surface when they decay in the spring. Dues to the high volume of runoff in the spring, and soils being frozen, little of the phosphorus from plant residue moves into the soil and travels in runoff (Retallack, 2001). Other nutrients Potassium and sulphur are two other common nutrients that are added to crops. Potassium (K) is one of the three main nutrients (NPK) for plant growth. This nutrient is added to some crop types in the form of fertilizers such as: potash, manmade fertilizers, properly composted and stored manure, compost, and green manures (Mikkelsen, 2007). Agricultural regions that are mostly in mixed farming, with live stock and crop production, use manure from their live stock and are generally an adequate supply for crops, if stored properly and tested to ensure adequate concentrations of K, reducing the need for potash fertilizer applications. Application of external potassium to fields also stimulates the release of it from exchangeable sources into the soil solution (Rehm & Schmitt, 2002). Potassium is less of a concern when examining agricultural pollutants because much like phosphorus, potassium is not very mobile in soil (Ball, 2001). Sulphur in southern Ontario is not usually applied to fields as a micronutrient. There is enough sulphur in acidic precipitation, animal manure, and organic matter decomposition making it very available to crops, especially those in areas that are predominately mixed farming operations (Brown, 2013). Sulfur is highly mobile in soil, much like nitrogen and is likely to move beyond the root zone of plants and leach into ground water (Soils, 2016). Because there is enough sulfur provided by acidic precipitation in Ontario, extra applications are not common, making the problematic qualities of sulfur, such as leaching, an unlikely concern when it is not a regularly added nutrient. Summary All environmental processes are interconnected and contribute to each other. Precipitation that hits the soil can cause dislodgement of soil particles. Water that is not absorbed by soil puddles 13 and turns into overland flow carrying water soluble nutrients directly to streams unless otherwise provoked to slow down and infiltrate into soils by landscape features. Runoff also causes erosion which carries sediment and soil bound nutrients into streams. Certain regional factors, such as frozen winters, contribute to higher levels of erosion and nutrient run off. Farmers apply extra human made and natural fertilizers to achieve increased crop growth and yields as there is not enough of each nutrient existing naturally in the landscape. The amount of nutrient loss and erosion vary due to famers’ crop choices and management. However, in general any cultivated land produces more erosion than naturally grassed or forested landscapes. Agriculture escalates these natural processes by changing cover types, adding extra nutrients, and exposing soils through cultivation practices. These landscape modifications increase nutrients, sediment, and other contaminates in streams contributing to overall degradation of water quality. 2.2. Conservation Practices There has been an increase in the demand for higher production of food to meet the growing population worldwide and could as much as double between now and 2050 (Tilman, Blazer, Hill, & Befort, 2011). Crop yield and profitability are at the forefront of agriculture, as farmers make their money off the yields they produce and often financially struggle from one year to the next. Their livelihood depends on the weather and other environmental changes as well as being subject to the industrialization of farming. To be profitable and improve the lives of farmer and farm hands and to meet growing demands on the industry, an increase in production must be sustainable by minimizing negative effects on the environment so farming is functional in the future (Hobbs, 2007). At the forefront of many government wide discussions focusing on environmental sustainability is the environmental burden of agriculture (Sustainable Development Office, 2010). Agriculture, as practiced now and in the past, damages the natural environment (Balmford, Green, & Phalan, 2012). High rates of nitrogen in fresh water are directly linked to inorganic inputs, from agricultural practices that apply nutrients to fields in order to increase yields (Morrice, et al., 2008). A projected increase in demand for agricultural products benefits the 14 socioeconomic component of conservation landscape planning. If not enacted with land and soil conservation as major considerations in the planning and implementation the increase in production will be detrimental to the environment. Environmental concerns of agriculture’s detrimental effects on the environment have led to the development of what is now termed “conservation agriculture”, which is a conservation strategy for agricultural production, agricultural specialists, and environmentalist. The progression towards a greener form of agriculture began in the 1930s when the dust bowl - where an estimated 480 tons per acre [about 1076 tonnes per hectare] of topsoil were lost to severe soil erosion - affected the Great Plains of the United States (Hansen & Libecap, 2004). This began the era of conservation tillage. Conservation tillage is defined by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations (2006) as: “a set of practices that leave crop residues after harvest on the soil surface which increases water infiltration and reduces erosion. It is a practice still used in conventional agriculture to reduce the effects of tillage on soil erosion”. Conservation practices such as zero tillage can be transition steps towards Conservation Agriculture (FAO, 2006). Conservation Agriculture is a relatively new term used to describe an approach to agriculture as a holistic operation, which include: sustainable productivity, increased profits, increase food security, and enhancing the resource base. It is characterized by three inter-related methods of: minimum soil disturbance, soil cover year round and diverse crop rotations (FAO, 2015). Above and below ground biological diversity are increased when there is a permanent layer of soil cover and zero or minimal soil disturbance (Hobbs, 2007). According to the 2011 Census of Agriculture, of the reporting 51 182 farms across Canada, 16.69 million hectares are seeded with a no-till or zero-till seeding method. 2.2.1. Landscape Conservation Planning Steiner (2008) defines landscape conservation planning in his book, The Living Landscape as: an Ecological Approach to Landscape Planning. Landscape: “the sum of the parts that can be seen, the layers and intersections of time and culture that comprise a place—a natural and cultural palimpsest.” He goes on to describe Planning as “the use of scientific, technical, and other 15 organized knowledge to provide options for decision making as well as a process for considering and reaching consensus on a range of choices.” (p.4). Soesilo and Pijawka (1998) define environmental planning as “the initiation and operation of activities to manage the acquisition, transformation, distribution, and disposal of resources in a manner capable of sustaining human activities, with a minimum distribution of physical, ecological, and social processes” (p. 2072). Landscape conservation planning, then, is the dynamic incorporation of biological needs of the environment and its interactions with humans. Effective landscape planning must account for the needs of wildlife and people (Sanderson, Redford, Vedder, Coppolillo, & Ward, 2002). Conservation must incorporate techniques to protect the environment, but also incorporate stakeholder needs to ensure the integration of conservation effort exist across the landscape (McShane, 1990). At the landscape scale, conservation has to be socially and ecologically sustainable to succeed. Success is a mixture of different land uses that preserve biodiversity yet also allow people to sustain themselves financially. 2.2.2.Current Practices to Mitigate Resource Problems While conservation tillage practices reduce run off pollutants, there are still leakages from the agricultural landscape going into the water system so other practices are employed as secondary pollution interceptors. Current practices used and tested to improve runoff water are many and have years of scientific study and experimentation behind them. There are a variety of best management practices (BMPs) promoted to the agricultural community to mitigate non-point source pollution that originates in the agricultural landscape. Some of them are vegetative barriers, riparian forests, two-stage ditches, and constructed wetlands. These methods are interjected onto productive crop land putting the financial and social burden upon the farmer. Vegetative barriers Vegetative barriers are a BMP that incorporate vegetation strategically within the agricultural landscape. Vegetative barriers offer erosion control, sediment trapping, and improve the functioning of other conservation efforts and are widely used in North America (USDA-NRCS) 16 (USDA-NRCS, 2000). There are several different types of vegetative barriers including: grass barrier, grass filter strips, buffer strips, and field borders. Grass barriers are not considered permanent, and can be removed easily at any time. They are narrow strips of tall erect perennial grasses that are planted in hedges and have stiff stems planted on the field contour (Kemper, Dabney, Kramer, & Keep, 1992). Stiff, erect grasses with deep roots encourage sediment deposition and berm formation (Gilley, Eghball, Kramer, & Moorman, 2000). They also encourage sedimentation and infiltration to withstand flooding and still be effective (Bentrup, 2008; Lee, Isenhart, & Schultz, 2003). Pan et al (2011) documented grass barrier did increase infiltration, filter surface runoff, and caused deposition of suspended soil particles. Grass filter strips use low growing grass species as trapping mats for runoff and the suspended solids within it. The width of the strip determines the effectiveness of sediment retention. Filter strips widths as small as 0.7 m saw reductions of 78% with the highest performance reached at 8 m with a reduction of 96% on a silt loam (Blanco - Canqui, Gantzer, Anderson, Alberts, & Thompson, 2004). Studies such as Hernandez-Santana, et al., 2014, Ghadiri et al (2001), and Borin, et al (2005) have all found filter strips encouraged infiltration by decreasing velocity and flow volumes increasing trapping capacity which encourages sedimentation and filtration. Contour buffer strips are similar to grass barriers in their plant material, location and function, however, are planted as permanent herbaceous materials. Plant material can range from sod forming grasses, stiff grass-legume mixture, and small shrubs. The choice of vegetation is dependent on the overall purpose of the filter strip. Field borders are permanent cover buffers that encircle the entire field (Dabney, Moore, & Locke, 2006). Plant material in this type of vegetative barrier differs from the plant material used in filter strips. The vegetation choice is not as stiff and is generally shorter because farm machinery can use this space for a turnaround while tending to the fields and therefore need to withstand compaction and equipment traffic. These are particularly beneficial in preventing pesticide and fertilizer drift to adjacent fields and sensitive areas. This type of buffering can also provide minimal trapping of soil and organic sediments suspended in water traveling over the field and 17 connecting grassed waterways and other vegetative areas providing ease of access for buffer maintenance (USDA-NRCS, 2000). Not only do vegetation barriers function better when multiple types of vegetative barriers are combined, they improve the function of other conservation field management efforts (USDANRCS, 2000). Studies substantiate this with the combined use of vegetative barriers with field management techniques reduce runoff and soil loss rates such as no-till, low-till, and leaving crop residue on fields. Grass barriers account for 7% of the receiving areas proven to have great effects when used in conjunction with no-till, low-till, and even tilled practices compared with not using barriers in those situations (Gilley, Eghball, Kramer, & Moorman, 2000). This study also concluded leaving crop residues on the fields after harvest in conservation management scenarios, allowed the grass barriers to function better and decreased overland pollution accumulation. Other studies have paired grass barriers with filter strips which show a decrease in pollutant transportation through increased detention time and increased infiltration (Blanco - Canqui, Gantzer, Anderson, Alberts, & Thompson, 2004). Sediment reduction of a 0.7 m grass barrier/ filter strip combination was equivalent to a 4 m fescue grass filter strip with peak effectiveness being reached at 4 m within combination barriers. This indicates that the combination of filter strips and narrow barriers enhances the function of filter strips (Blanco - Canqui, Gantzer, Anderson, Alberts, & Thompson, 2004). Riparian Forests Riparian buffering zones vary in standards from one place to the next however generally are comprised of three areas: one being the land directly adjacent to the water body that is usually not disturbed, second the area directly adjacent to that is a managed forest area and third is a filter strip adjacent to production lands to capture sediment and is an optional area within the riparian buffer zone (Lee, Isenhart, & Locke, 2003). Riparian buffer strips are significant contributors to water quality within the agricultural landscape as they remove excess sediment, 18 organic material, nutrients, and pesticides in surface runoff and shallow ground waters. They do however take a significant amount of land out of production; however tend to use land that usually should not be cropped due to location and soil type. Grassed waterways To protect an area from further degradation grassed waterways can be used to facilitate the movement of water as well as stabilize the soils. The use of grassed waterways results in retained top soil, decreased sediment transports and better water quality (Fiener & Auerswald, 2003). According to the USDA-NRCS CORE4 training guide (1999) grassed waterways are not a buffering strategy on their own, as has been suggested by Dabney et al (2006), but act as a transport network that is vegetated to prevent further soil loss and decreases velocity of traveling water within the network. According to CORE4 (1999) water that enters the grassed waterway will generally leave with the same amount of pollutants it started with unless paired with another BMP to become a buffer. Drainage Ditches Traditional Ditches Ditches are a unique feature in the agricultural landscape necessary for surface drainage to promote higher crop productivity. Ditches possess the characteristics of both a stream and a wetland, similar to how natural streams form floodplains (Needelman, Kleinman, Strock, & Allen, 2007). These landscape features also function as water table controls that can affect the landscapes biological, chemical, and hydrologic processes while providing a place for the transformation, storing and emitting of agri-pollutants (Needelman, Kleinman, Strock, & Allen, 2007). Traditional ditch design uses a trapezoidal form with a wider bottom than what would be produced from a naturally forming fluvial channel making the channel wide and shallow which results in it being oversized for small flows and provides no flood plain for larger flow events (Ward, Meckledburg, Powell, Brown, & Jayakaran, 2004). Trapezoidal ditches often equalize themselves and form benches and bars by fluvial processes within the channel which improve 19 stability during high flow events while concentrating and sustaining low flow events (Powell, Ward, Mecklenburg, & Jayakaran, Two-stage channel systems: Part 1, a practical approach for sizing agricultural ditches.(SPECIAL SECTION: DRAINAGE DITCHES)(Report), 2007). This beneficial natural formation however is regularly removed along with the vegetation that takes root there due to concern of vegetation and debris will reduce the outlet depth or conveyance capacity of the ditch reach (Powell, et al., 2007). This form of ditch has been used for many years with little to no changes in form. Recently, innovations in ditch design have shifted the thinking of what a ditch can be and how it can function to better reduce transportation of agripollutants from crop lands. Agricultural ditches are often straightened and deepened to accommodate storm discharge, maximize conveyance, and facilitate flow from subsurface drainage tiles, resulting in incised trapezoidal channels with no connection to active floodplains (Powell, et al., 2007). These practices reduce contact time of water with sediments and soils which reduce nitrogen retention in fields and can promote instability causing bank slumping which requires frequent maintenance to retain ditch shape (Roley, et al., 2012). Frequent maintenance for the removal of excess sediment and debris within the channel is costly and has adverse water quality impacts (Powell, et al., 2007). Two stage ditches Alternative to the traditional trapezoidal ditch is a two-stage ditch design that incorporates features of naturally formed streams such as the floodplain. Two-stage design has a lower stage and a higher stage within the ditch. The lower stage is an inset channel formed by fluvial processes, while the second stage or higher stage is designed to provide stability using minimal productive land to accommodate the drainage outlets from sub-surface tile drains while achieving the desired capacity to prevent flooding of surrounding areas (Powell, et al., 2007). Vegetation for two-stage ditches are recommended to be primarily grasses with an avoidance of woody vegetation could shade the needed stabilizing grasses on the benches and bank side slopes (Powell, et al., 2007). To date, there are not a lot of empirical studies on two stage ditch design, 20 however potential benefits are greater stability, reduced maintenance, increased conveyance capacity of the ditch and pollution assimilation (Powell, et al., 2007). Two stage ditches function very differently than traditional ditches and almost eliminate the issues traditional trapezoidal ditch formations have. Two-stage channel design increases bank stability because low flow events are below benches, keeping bank material dryer and less exposed to water, which reduces sheer stress on banks (Powell & Bouchard, 2010). This was also observed in a study by Roley et al (2012) where side slopes of ditches show higher stability because the toe of the bank meets at the bench and not the bed bottom, only exposing the toe to water and sediments when there is high flow not continuously as in low flow trapezoidal configurations, reducing the potential for erosion and bank slumping. Erosion is further decreased because the design of a two stage ditch allows water to overtake the bench and spread out increasing surface area slowing the velocity of water and allowing sedimentation in the channel and on the benches which decreased the potential for erosion caused by scouring (Powell, et al., 2007). Stability within these ditch design is highly dependent on vegetation quality and quantity on the benches within the ditch (Powell, et al., 2007). Pollution assimilation within two-stage ditches occurs in the concentrated flow channel and on the benches. The deposition of finer particle and the presence of vegetation litter on the benches creates the conditions for denitrification during high flow events because water spreads out across the floodplains (benches) in a two-stage system which slows water down allowing for the deposition of fine sediments on the bench (Roley, et al., 2012). Aquatic denitrification rate increases when water has longer contact time with benthic sediment, where large quantities of denitrifying bacteria thrive (Galloway, et al., 2003). This is further Powell and Bouchard (2010) who found organic matter in two-stage systems is higher on the slopes and benches of the ditch network with higher denitrification rates in a two-stage ditch than a one stage/ trapezoidal form. The form of two-stage ditch design has less maintenance and an increase in conveyance capacity. The formation of the ditch decrease maintenance because within the fluvial channel 21 there is sorting of sediments with finer particles being deposited on the benches, not in the concentrated flow channel while coarser materials are deposited in the bed of the channel (Powell & Bouchard, 2010). With this separation of particles there is no need for dredging out the channel. Conveyance capacity is increased in two-stage design because the flooded width of two- stage channel design is three to five times the inset channel width (Powell, et al., 2007). In the study by Roley et al (2012) nitrates in two-stage channels do not travel as far before denitrification occurs compared with trapezoidal configurations, indicating that denitrification takes place closer to the point of discharge, therefore decreasing the amount of nitrate in lower reaches. Storm flow removal was greater in two-stage channels than in trapezoidal ones being influenced by the denitrification rates on the floodplains, which is when agricultural land exports the most amount of nitrates into the water system. Two-stage ditch form removes the highest amount of nitrogen when low concentrations enter the ditch network. This indicates that upland land management practices to reduce initial nitrogen loads are necessary for performance. Cover crops and precision fertilizer application that reduce nitrogen exports from production fields are recommended for this. Wetlands can also be a complementary method to two-stage ditches as the wetland intercepts base tile drain flow, decreasing nitrogen concentration in ditch water allowing the ditch preforming denitrification during storm flow events and increase rates of removal during bench inundation (Roley, et al., 2012). Wetlands Constructed wetlands have the potential to remove nitrogen and phosphorus. There are two types of constructed wetlands that are used to mitigate agricultural nutrient loading to water networks, Free Water Surface wetlands (FWS) and Subsurface Flow Wetlands (SSF). FWS are shallow ponded water (<0.4m) with a low velocity and is controlled by the density of vegetation present as well as the overall design of the wetland (Naja & Volesky, 2011). Sub-surface systems are filled with porous substrates with water passing through them and always 22 maintaining the water level below the surface of the substrate (Naja & Volesky, 2011). There are two types of sub-surface wetland, horizontal and vertical. Hybrid systems have been developed to try and capture the benefit of both type of sub-surface wetland. One type of hybrid system is a Vertical Flow Wetland to the Horizontal Flow Wetland (VF-HF) the first stage provides aerobic conditions for nitrification and the second stage provides the anoxic/anaerobic conditions necessary for denitrification with at third step to remove total nitrogen (Vymazal, 2007). The other type of hybrid system combines Horizontal Flow Wetlands and Vertical Flow Wetlands (HF-VF), which place the large horizontal bed first in the sequence to remove organics and suspended solids while also providing denitrification while the vertical flow bed is second in the sequence which further removes organics and suspended solids and nitrifies ammonia to nitrate (Vymazal, 2007). The HF-VF system may function better than the VF-HF hybrid system because of the removal of large particles and suspended solids, as cited by Hammer (1992), to show clogging in real life applications. Subsurface systems cannot maintain dissolved oxygen levels necessary for ammonia removal so a combination of SSF and FWS increase the range of nitrogen transformation and removal (Hammer, 1992). Within wetlands there is an opportunity for the interconversion of phosphorus with soluble reactive phosphorus being taken up by plants and converted to tissue phosphorus; it can also be absorbed to sediments and soils in wetlands (Vymazal, 2007, p. 59). With proper design and large enough treatment areas removal of phosphorus can be readily accomplished in SSF component of the hybrid system (Hammer, 1992). Plant species play an integral role in phosphorus removal and have greater efficiencies in lower concentrations of nutrients (Gottschall, Boutin, Crolla, Kinsley, & Champagne, 2007). This, however, is a short term storage of phosphorus and requires a regular harvest schedule to keep plants at optimal uptake which occurs before maximum growth has been reached (Vymazal, 23 2007). The reduction of phosphorus within wetlands studied in Vymazal’s (2007) were considered low and the presence of a substrate in subsurface flow wetlands to remove phosphorus would be needed to see any benefits. This however is contradictory to the research by Yang et al (2007) that found high levels of phosphorus uptake by numerous species within wetlands and suggest a multi tear design in plant selection that chooses plants based on their highest nutrient intake so that throughout the entire growing season there are plants that are in optimal phosphorus uptake to ensure reduction in phosphorus in constructed wetlands. Wetlands cannot produce fully nitrified effluent because of limiting factors of each type of wetland (Vymazal, 2007). Combinations of wetland types have been developed to achieve satisfactory results in nutrient and sediment removal. Using wetlands in series increases the land making constructed wetlands an expensive venture in terms of productive land. Summary All of these practices have been proven to reduce agricultural nutrients with varying degree. Most studies indicate that a combination of conservation techniques that reduce the initial loading would increase the functioning and subsequent uptake and removal of nutrients from the system. Multiple studies indicate the use of best management practices in combination results in run off and/or pollutant reduction. The use of vegetative barriers, riparian forests, two-stage ditches, and constructed wetlands all require land to be taken out of production and converted to interception areas for agri-chemicals. This reduces the amount of cultivated land, which in turn reduces the economic gains and total production of goods. This is unfavourable to agriculture as an industry because with growing demands for higher yields and more production of goods the decrease in land will reduce total production and gains. One of the primary tenets of landscape conservation planning is to try to mitigate these losses. The above proposed solutions favour the environment and do not consider the farmer, therefore not fitting within this holistic concept. 24 2.2.3.Current Large Scale Reconfiguration Other practices of environmental conservation target pollutants at a broader scale. Programs have been developed to aid in evaluating land for their suitability of land use. The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) in the USA uses geophysical characteristics of the land to determine if it is suitable for agricultural use, or if it qualifies for a financial stipend to retire the land for a negotiated period of time. Tools, such as Land Evaluation and Site Assessment (LESA), have also been developed to holistically view agricultural land within the broader context of the environment and human settlement. These tools for environmental conservation enable informed decision making about the location (configuration) of land cover, and the composition of agricultural land and other land uses such as conservation reserves and residential development. Strategic Perennial Cover Programs have been developed to utilize strategic design of a landscape to inform the placement of continuous perennial cover. This type of strategy targets areas that meet landscape characteristic criteria set forth by the conservation program. The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) is such a program that was started in the United States under President Ronald Ragan. This program is a voluntary enrollment program that takes environmentally sensitive land out of agricultural production for at least ten years, while paying the farmers a rental fee for the land. Appropriate perennial plant species are planted to reduce erosion, increase water quality, and to increase wildlife habitat (USDA Farm Service Agency, 2015a). There are many initiatives within the CRP that focus on different aspects of environmental health. Those of interest in to this thesis are the initiatives for Highly Erodible Lands and Flood Plain Wetland Initiatives. Areas that qualify for the Highly Erodible Lands CRP are those that are evaluated as highly erodible under annual cover with an erosion index of 20 or greater (USDA Farm Service Agency, 2015b). The erosion index (EI) is an index of the potential for a soil to erode, which is based on climatic factors and the physical properties of soil and terrain. The higher the number, the more likely it is to erode. EI of eight or greater is considered highly erodible (United States Department of Agriculture, 2007), so an EI of 20 is substantially vulnerable. 25 Flood plain wetlands initiative takes agricultural land that is often marginal and regularly floods, and restores it back to a wetland. This tactic helps reduce the damages of flooding downstream and adjacent areas of cropland by acting as a holding cell for overland flow. The return of marginal farmland to a wetland also improves water quality because it provides a place for dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus in overland flow to be removed. Not only do they reduce nutrient pollutants, they also allow sedimentation to occur (USDA Farm Service Agency, 2015c). All of these functions increased water quality overall. Marton et al (2014) found that CRP and Wetlands Reserve Program (WRP) lands increased water quality by reducing nitrogen, sediment, and phosphorus loads to water. The study evaluated environmental impacts of converting agricultural land that is highly erodible and the restoration of historic wetlands. It was found that re-establishing perennial cover in riparian zones reduced nitrogen and phosphorus outputs to streams in the area. The restoration of ephemeral wetlands reduced phosphorus loading more than restored riparian zones however each working in tandem made the largest impact to water quality. Even though there were no wetlands used in the designed scenario proposed by this thesis, the Flood Plain Initiative demonstrates how geophysical features of the landscape can be used to inform design and placement of landscape features to decrease the effects of agriculture on water quality. Since the inception of the CRP many studies have shown the programs benefits to the environment and wildlife habitat. A 14 year study by Lizotte et al (2014) evaluated the use of multiple BMPs in Beasley Lake Watershed. The long duration of the study allowed for the evaluation of BMPs added to the surrounding area of the lake over time. Mid way through the study, CRP was initiated at the north end of the lake. CRP land improved water clarity, decreased total suspended solids, and reduced total dissolved solids more than other BMPs in the study. This indicates that there was a reduction of sediment delivery to the lake. The combination of CRP with other BMP techniques showed greater decreases still. Another study that investigated land use practices on water contaminants saw 2.7-6 times greater soil accretion in soil cores from wetlands surrounded by row crops compared to CRP and native prairie grassed surrounded wetlands. Phosphorus and nitrate concentrations were the lowest in CRP 26 surrounded wetlands, with ammonium nitrate, carbon, and nitrogen concentrations between values recorded for native prairie grass and crop surrounded wetlands (Preston, Sojda, & Gleason, 2013). A study by Randall et al (1997) investigated the conversion of CRP lands to three different cropping sequences; with a base line plot kept as CRP cover. They determined that continuous corn and corn soy rotation sequencing produced more residual soil nitrates and had higher nutrient loads in tile drainage water compared to alfalfa (a perennial crop species) and CRP plots, which are in perennial cover. This indicates a reconfiguration of perennial dominant crop rotations to areas with erosion and nutrient loss as a concern benefit water quality by reducing the buildup of nutrients in the soil and in overland flow. Not only has the CRP decreased sediment and nutrients in water, but they also provide habitat. Reynolds et al (2001) found that the conversion of 1.9 million ha of crop land to CRP perennial cover, across three states, increased the recruitment rate of five duck species, compared to pre CRP conversion. Using recruitment models the study took daily survival rates counts from the pre CRP cover and post CRP conversion. Habitat increases through the CRP program increase population counts for these duck species, but also for other fowl species. A study by Swanson et al (1999) found that forty-three breeding bird species used the CRP fields with twenty-six species using three or more of the CRP fields in the study. It was found that CRP lands that are connected to existing grass lands had higher occurrences of monitored species. The increase in habitat has been positively increasing species population that have been on the decline and even some that are endangered. The enrollment of row crop fields on erodible and water adjacent lands into the CRP has had marked environmental benefits. CRP conversion creates wildlife habitat for many species. Of particular study are the different kinds of breeding fowl that use the CRP as nesting and dwelling grounds. Several studies conclude that avian species use the CRP regularly and that they are a beneficial conservation strategy because they are increasing declining grassland fowl populations. Not only do CRP lands provide wildlife habitat and benefits, they increase water quality. Sedimentation and nutrient load in water bodies decreased in areas that have CRP in 27 place. Comparison of row crop to CRP fields indicate that there are significant environmental benefits to the enrollment to CRP because the amount of nutrients and sediment delivered to water bodies is significantly lower than row crops and even singular BMPs like vegetative buffers. Evaluating geophysical characteristics of the landscape for high erosion risk and altering the composition and configuration of landscape features to protect those areas year round has decreased the yield of agricultural pollutants that enter into adjacent streams and subsequent water bodies. This indicates that the evaluation of the geophysical properties of the landscape and the reconfiguration of cropping sequences that have sequential years in perennial cover would alter the amount of nutrients lost from the agricultural landscape. Land Evaluation and Site Assessment (LESA) Land Evaluation and Site Assessment (LESA) is a committee based analytical tool that assesses agricultural target areas aiding in land use and planning on a variety of scales. It was developed to be used as a systematic evaluation tool that is adjustable to the site/region it is being used in. LESA is typically used when deciding which land should be designated as agricultural land in the planning phase of a district, zoning land parcels, land-use permits and rezoning, and impact analysis on the “creeping effect” (p. 111. Para.1). A guidebook was created to assist those endeavouring into a LESA site evaluation. The LESA guidebook outlines the basic concepts of the LESA system, the assessment process, developing a committee to construct the LESA system in the local area, setting and selecting the Land Evaluation, selecting and scaling Site Assessment factors, combining and weighing the Land Evaluation and Site Assessment factors, Testing the draft LESA system, and interpreting the LESA score to aid in decision making. LESA incorporates both physical and site features in tandem which allows for an analysis of environmental and social impacts. LESA is comprised of two categories which include Land Evaluation (land characteristics) and Site Assessment (site characteristics). Land Evaluation (LE) consists of soil based factors in relation to agriculture, while Site Assessment (SA) factors are not soil based, rather more 28 environmental and anthropological. The main task, and the most labourious, for the committee are determining which factors to include in LE and the SA factor categories and the subsequent unit scoring process. The main focus when choosing factors to include when using LESA for a site evaluation is to always keep in mind, “what are we trying to learn from a LESA score?” (p.16 para.5). This determines what to include in the LE and SA factors. A relative score is assigned to individual LE and SA factor categories with total scores of LE and SA being assigned to each map unit. The results are then analysed by the committee and used in the decision making processes. Land Evaluation (LE) The LE component of LESA is one or more land classification system chosen to analyze the soil based qualities of the study site. There are four different classification systems that are recommended: land capability classes, important farmlands classification, and soil productivity ratings and/or soil potential ratings. Each land classification system evaluates different amounts of information to form map units. Soil potential rating presents the most information about the soil qualities including yield potential and the cost of overcoming soil limitations. Next, soil productivity rates soil units by yield alone. Land capability classifies soils based on risk of damage by cropping, where soil potential and soil productivity can be within the same land capability class. The broadest soil classification system is important farmland classes which distinguish map units based on federal definitions of agricultural land (p. 44). Site Assessment (SA) SA factors consist of things that effect agriculture but are not soil based. It consists of three broad factor categories: “SA1 non-soil factors that limit agricultural productivity or farming practices, SA2 factors related to development pressures, SA3 public value of the site (ex. historic or scenic value)” (p. 13 para. 5). The committee will develop SA characteristics for one or more categories. Categories chosen and populated are significant to the local agricultural community and coincide with the committees’ objective for using LESA. 29 Examples of non-soil factors (SA1) that limit productivity are: size of site, compatibility with adjacent uses, compatibility with surrounding non adjacent uses, shape of site, percent of site in agricultural use, level of on farm investment, availability of agricultural support services, stewardship of the site, environmental limitations on agricultural practices, and availability and reliability of irrigation water (p. 65). Factors that relate to development pressures (SA2) surrounding the land can include: land-use policy designation, percent of surrounding land in urban or rural development use, distance to public utilities, length and/or road class of adjacent roadways, and proximity to protected farmland (p. 76). Public value of a site (SA3) is an optional component of LESA that evaluates the broader landscape containing farmland. An ecosystem approach incorporates other land-use objectives with farmland becoming more prevalent in land-use planning and policy. Identifying scenic view, habitat for wild animals, open spaces, educational opportunities, historical architecture or archaeological significance, wetland and riparian value, environmentally sensitive areas, and floodplain protection sites all can be incorporated into the LESA system for analysis. SA3 factors may be incorporated into other parts of the LESA system. The committee will determine how and if this information is relevant to their study and they must determine how to combine these factors with the LE components that look at soil based characteristics of the site (p. 80). Not all SA factors discussed above are relevant to each study, and in some cases redundant with other LE and SA factors. A recommendation is to have between three to seven SA factors, which will adequately represent each unit of the site. The chosen SA factors must be relevant to the site and fit with the goal of the LESA assessment. SA factors can be taken from the provided lists from the LESA guidebook or other factors can be conceptualized based on the characteristics of the study area and the nature of the LESA assessment. Once the committee has determined the categories and components of both the LE and SA factors that are important to the site each factor is scored, assigned a weighting value, and a weighted score. This information is then used to create a site score for evaluation and decision making. In the scoring process the committee determines which factors are more important than 30 others and assigns arbitrary factor values of 0-100 to all of the LE and SA factors. The factors are then weighted to determine the score of the site. The weighting scheme used in the LESA system totals 1.0 making each factor a fraction of the whole. A weighting value between 0.0-1.0 is assigned to all of the factors associated with the site. The weighting factors are then multiplied by the factor score to produce the weighted score of each attribute. These scores are then tallied up to produce a site total score. Certain LE and SA factors are scored and weighted differently. The guidebook developed to aid the committee members in the LESA process details each factor that requires a specific type of scoring protocol (p. 14). Once the scores have been calculated interpretation of the results follows. The typical ways that the scores are interpreted are to set threshold values for each of the applications of LESA (if there is more than one). The threshold allows for a range of scores to be grouped into categories indicating the quality of parcels for agricultural production. There are a number of ways to develop the threshold values, one being a hard value, another a “fuzzy” threshold that sets a range (p. 112). The choice of how to determine thresholds of LESA parcels is based on the application of the study. It may be more appropriate to have hard set values, while other times it may be more beneficial for the committee to have more lax classifications so that they can seek outside expertise. LESA is a general model to be adapted to local conditions and needs. The developed guidebook aids the committee in adapting LESA to what is needed for that study. This is a very flexible tool allowing the user to choose only relevant factors for their site, weighting of factors, and thresholds used to interpret the data generated from LESA. It is an objective numerical analytical tool that is intended to be a part of a decision making process, not a stand-alone tool. Combination of land characteristics and site characteristics allows the site to be analysed based on a well-rounded representation of the site (Pease & Coughlin, n.d.). 31 Table 2.1 Example of LESA scoring 1 2 Factor name Factor rating 3 X (0-100) Weighting 4 = (Total = 1.00) Weighted factor rating Land evaluation (site with one soil): 1. Land capability 68 X 0.3 = 20.4 2. Soil productivity 62 X 0.2 = 12.54 subtotals Site assessment-1 (agricultural use factors): 0.5 32.8 3. Acreage of farm 100 X 0.15 = 15 4. Farm investment 80 X 0.05 = 4 5. Surrounding uses 60 X 0.1 = 6 subtotals Site assessment-2 (development pressure): 0.3 25 6.Protection by plan or zoning 90 X 0.06 = 5.4 7. Distance to sewer 70 X 0.05 = 3.5 subtotals 0.11 8.9 Site assessment-3 (other factors): 8. Scenic quality 50 subtotals Total of factor weights X 0.09 = 0.09 4.5 4.5 1 (must equal 1.00) Total LESA score 71.2 (sum of weighted factor ratings) 2.2.4.Summary Conservation agriculture began after the 1930 Dust Bowl in the Great Plains of the US that led to financial devastation, starvation, and economic distress. Practices such as conservation tillage are now integrated into many farms across North America and is widely promoted by governments here and around the world. Moving forward from conservation agriculture, Landscape Conservation Planning is a logical forward step in the development of agriculture as a conscious conserving industry. It accounts for the needs of farmers, stakeholders, and working personnel yet also has the environment at the forefront of development. The integration of environmental health and sustainability has spurred many practices and techniques to help 32 reduce the impact of agriculture on the environment, while maintaining profitability for those that run and work the farms. All of these practices have been proven to reduce agricultural nutrients to some degree. Most studies indicate that there is a need for multiple buffers in sequence because the first buffer in the series reduces the initial loading of sediment, nutrients, and water and allows the subsequent buffers to function properly (i.e. not overloading the system), resulting in a more consistent overall decrease of pollutants at the end of the sequence. The use of vegetative barriers, riparian forests, two-stage ditches, and constructed wetlands all require land to be taken out of production and converted to interception areas for agri-chemicals. This reduces the amount of cultivated land, which in turn reduces the economic gains and total production of goods, which is unfavourable to agriculture as an industry. One of the primary tenets of landscape conservation planning is to try to mitigate these losses while caretaking the environment. Current programs and tools have been developed that align with the tenets of landscape conservation planning. CRP incentives remove land from production based on the erodibility of the soil. There is a rental fee given to the farmers to take that land out of production. This system considers the environment, while also understanding that land is the revenue generator for farmers. Tools such as LESA provide a different method of determining the vulnerability of an agricultural parcel. It evaluates farm land in the context of the environment, productivity, and external pressures that may affect agricultural land. This too takes into account the environmental concerns and the concerns of farmers. 2.3. Watershed models There are many models developed for simulation of watersheds to determine pollution loading rates. How a model spatially represents the study watershed varies from lumped models to distributed models. Time scale in models also varies greatly, from minutes, hours, days, and months. This section will discuss two recognized models and key feature in simulating water quality and quantity. Original model documents will be reviewed and differences between these models will be explored. Only process based distributed models will be discussed, since lumped 33 models impose a homogenous average of watershed features to the entire study watershed. This study was looking to maintain as much heterogeneity in the study area during simulation to have a better representation of real life processes. 2.3.1.Distributed Models “A distributed approach to modeling a watershed consists of a grid representation of topography, precipitation, soils, and land use/cover that accounts for the variability of all these parameters” (Vieux, 2004 p. 3). Distributed models best represent the real landscape as they do not lump whole catchments together and apply an average of the parameter to the entire area, which would not capture topographical differences of the landscape (Vieux, 2004). There are two subcategories of distributed models, Semi and fully distributed. Semi-distributed models consider a catchment as a series of lumped models within a catchment or Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs). According to Schumann (1993), HRUs blanket several spatial units with similar land use, soil type, and topography. This method simplifies the watershed but still captures spatial differences, crop, soil, and hydrologic conditions (Sanzana, et al., 2013). Each lumped division has the average of the parameter applied to it. This type of model tends to need less input data and take less time to compute results from simulation. Fully-distributed models calculate parameters for specific grid locations within the catchment. These hydrological models are time consuming and take a long time to calculate and return results, however all parameters produce data to be analysed (Harun, Jajarmizadeh, & Salarpour, 2012). SWAT Model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a river basin or watershed model that predicts the long term impact of agricultural practices in watersheds. The SWAT model is a physically based, semi-distributed model that is continuous time based (Arnold, et al., 2011). Physically based models allow the measurement of any parameter because the physical attributes and processes of the watershed are the basis for determining the way the model simulates. It can simulate the impact of land management on water, sediment, and agricultural yields. Soil composition, landuse and management can vary through-out the simulation time period and area. The simulation 34 area is sub-divided into smaller sub-basins or sub-watersheds. These subdivisions are grouped based on climate, hydrologic response units (HRUs), ponds, ground water, and main channels. SWAT model components include weather, soil, topography, vegetation, and land management practices as input data to run a simulation (Arnold, et al., 2011). Input data is required at different scale: watershed, sub-basin, and HRU scale. This model is not designed to be used for simulation of single events, and must simulate over long periods of time (Arnold, et al., 2011). Most users of this model do so to study the long-term effects of land management strategies. Users typically use SWAT to estimate nutrient, sediment, and chemical build up within the basin or stream network (Arnold, et al., 2011). AnnAGNPS Model AnnAGNPS is a distributed model that is physically based. It is a watershed-scale model that allows the analysis of non-point source pollutant loading in agricultural watersheds . Input data required for this software are: weather, soil, topography, vegetation, and land management practices, and land use (Bingner, Theurer, & Yuan, 2015). The software is equipped with additional modules to aid in the construction of input data to be used in simulation. These modules include: TOPAGNPS, a batch program for input file formats, GIS input editor, a visual interface program, and an output editor to analyse results. TOPAGNPS allows for the processing of topographical information from a digital elevation model (DEM). TOPAGNPS is a composite of many individual computational processes that have been combined into one component for simplification. Once all sequences are complete within TOPAGNPS the watershed is divided into smaller drainage catchments known as cells. Individual output files such as the cell file and the sub watershed file are then used in later components to build input data files. Input Editor uses GIS data to intersect the created watershed cell file with soil, climate, and land use. None of the cells and, therefore, geophysical information is grouped as with HRUs in semi-distributed models, making the digital representation of the watershed as close to real life conditions as possible (Bingner, Theurer, & Yuan, 2015). 35 Summary There are many watershed models that have been developed to estimate nutrients, sediment, and water volumes that leave a given study area. However, two that suited the current study have been presented. The semi-distributed model SWAT uses a grouping approach to overlaying geophysical information on the watershed. This model produces a less than realistic representation of the watershed and loses information in doing so. AnnAGNPS, a fully distributed model uses geophysical information at a finer scale and does not group areas of the watershed together like SWAT. Both models require almost the exact same data to produce a simulation of the study watershed. SWAT differs in outputs with the ability to estimate snowmelt runoff, where AnnAGNPS cannot. AnnAGNPS does not measure snow melt runoff but does compute snowmelt. Conclusion This chapter reviewed the environmental processes that move water, nutrients, and sediment through the landscape, ending in streams, degrading water quality in the watershed and in receiving waters. A discussion of the current trends in conservation and techniques currently used to mitigate agricultural pollutants illustrates where current research is focused and the niche that this thesis fulfills. The unaltered natural environment has a finite amount of nutrients available to plants. To meet the demand of farm goods, intensive farming requires the use of fertilizers, manmade and natural, to increase the presence of naturally occurring nutrients. Nutrients added to the soil are carried on soil particles and in water during erosion and runoff events, exacerbated by the absence of naturally occurring vegetation, end up in our streams, causing water quality issues such as hypoxia and algae blooms. These water quality issues have spurred the development of conservation agriculture that aims to reduce the environmental impacts of the industry. To reduce pollutants in runoff, water buffering strategies and best management practices that trap soil and intercept runoff water have been developed. These strategies require productive land to 36 be converted into buffers, which is problematic when earnings are derived from yields and food demands continue to increase. Landscape conservation planning is a modern approach that balances environment protection and human needs. This approach also balances economic gains to sustain the people that work and own the farms, which in turn warrant the correct mentality of those people towards the environment, and the implementation of conservation efforts across the landscape. Programs like the CRP have balanced this concept by offering farmers financial incentive and payment for land to be removed from production and converted into conservation lands. Tools, such as LESA, were developed to aid in the evaluation of farmland and to understand the economic, social, and environmental aspects that surround agricultural land in a study area. While literature shows the value and approaches to landscape conservation planning, appreciations are few. Re-configuring land covers within agricultural watersheds- without taking land out of production- should be studied to determine how it affects agricultural nutrients and sediments. If re-configuration of land cover is effective it offers insights for the application of agricultural landscape conservation planning. 37 3.0 Methodology This section identifies the research question and discusses possible outcomes from testing this question on an agricultural sub watershed through model simulation. A description of how the study area was chosen and the physical and cultural properties of the sub watershed are given to place the study in its environment. Data sets and sub sets for the model are outlined and described. The procedures for obtaining data to create and build the digital geophysical representation of the watershed are documented. Site analysis of the study area lead to the creation of a set of design rules to locate crop rotations in the designed scenario. 3.1. Research Question and Hypothesis This project aimed to learn if an agriculturally dominated watershed can be reconfigured, while keeping the existing composition the same, to decrease agricultural pollution delivered to streams? Expected results from the redesign of the study area are decreases in total pollution in the forms of nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) and sediment. Particularly, nitrogen is expected to decrease the most because of its use to rank crop rotations by nutrient input. Phosphorus is expected to decrease, however not as much as nitrogen, as it wasn’t directly included in the design reconfiguration protocol. Erosion rates will decrease with the reconfiguration due to the relocation of crop sequences that have more ground covering capabilities to more vulnerable landscape positions. However, erosion was not directly included in the reconfiguration protocol so decrease is not an expected outcome. 3.2. Study Area Selection The study area was selected in an agriculturally dominated watershed. Application of landscape design principles improving water quality and soil stability can be achieved across many Canadian landscapes. Southern Ontario has most of Canada’s high-quality farmland. Criteria for the selection of the study area were that the agricultural capability should be high (Canada Land Inventory agricultural capability class 1-3 land should dominate), farming should be the dominant 38 land use, soil erosion and water quality should be documented concerns, and geophysical characteristics and vegetation should be diverse so that there are opportunities for moreresponsive design. Finally, spatial data must be available for the landscape and ideally the watershed is already well-documented for land management concerns. 3.3. Description of the study area The Grand River watershed (Figure 3.1) is one of the largest in Southern Ontario. The Grand River flows from its headwaters in Dundalk, Ontario and terminates at Lake Erie (Grand River Conservation Authority , 2015). This watershed is dominated by agricultural lands making it a strong candidate for testing a hypothesis that investigates changing water quality in an agricultural watershed. There are many tributaries that join the Grand River, some of which are rivers in their own rite. The size of the Grand River watershed makes it too unwieldly to study at a fine level of detail. A sub watershed dominated by agricultural practice was chosen to study the change in water quality by changing the location of field rotations, while keeping the overall composition of the watershed the same. Figure 3.1 Grand River Watershed, Ontario 39 The Canagagigue creek is a sub-watershed (figure 3.2) of the Grand River located in the Upper middle Grand basin. This minor basin has five sub-catchments and is located in Woolwich Township in the Regional Municipality of Waterloo. One of the five sub catchments was chosen based on agricultural land use that had similar ratios of each type of agricultural production as the entire Canagagigue Creek watershed. This watershed has been the subject of other research projects that investigate agricultural pollution (for example: Oogathoo, 2006; Environment Canada, 1983; Gharabaghi et al, 2006). Figure 3.2 Canagagigue Creek and study site The study area is located in the north eastern quadrant of the Canagagigue Creek watershed. It is 2888 ha with predominantly level to very gentle slopes with a mean gradient of just over three percent slope. Loam is the predominant soil texture. Agriculture dominates the study area covering 84% of the sub catchment. Agricultural activities consist of mixed farming of livestock 40 (i.e. pasture) and cropping of corn, small grains, soybeans and hay. The remainder of the sub catchment consists of forests, urban development, farmsteads, streams, and small water bodies. 3.4. AnnAGNPS Data Requirements The model used for this study is the AnnAGNPS model. The need for an as accurate as possible representation of the watershed outweighed the heftiness of the data sets and procedures needed to run a simulation. In addition, AnnAGNPS produced all of the required outputs to compare the baseline and designed scenario with minimal extra data sets for analysis. AnnAGNPS requires three minimum data sets to run a pollutant loading simulation, climate data, geophysical data, and land use data. Some of these component data sets require multiple subcomponent files to be constructed to run the simulation. 3.4.1.Climate data Climate data required for running an AnnAGNPS simulation include precipitation (timing and amount), solar radiation (intensity), air temperature, wind speed and direction, dew point and sky cover (proportion of cloud). All climatic data were required as daily values. AnnAGNPS required Climate data to be in specific formats to run the simulation. Daily totals were required for precipitation and solar radiation. Daily air temperature was required as maximum and minimum values. Twenty-four hour averages were required for wind speed and direction, dew point, and sky cover. Elora Research Station (ERS) provided hourly data for all climate data. If data were missing or unavailable from ERS, Government of Canada hourly climate reports were used to fill in gaps where available. Solar radiation had the highest amount of incomplete records in the ERS data sets. Solar radiation data are only measured at a few climate stations in Southern Ontario. Proximity to the study area and different formats of measured solar radiation made other sources non- viable to complete the missing radiation data. To complete the missing records, equal amount of years before and after the missing records were used to average existing data and transpose the average to the missing daily records. Sky cover was calculated internally within the 41 AnnAGNPS software by using solar radiation data. Sky cover specifically was the most incomplete data set; therefore, this parameter was left to be calculated internally by AnnAGNPS software. Dew point is not included in historical weather data. Calculation of dew point was preformed using the following excel adapted formula (Lawrence, 2005): TD=243.04*(ln(RH/100)+((17.625*T)/(243.04+T)))/(17.625-ln(RH/100)-((17.625*T)/(243.04+T))) TD is the total dew point. RH is the relative humidity. T refers to air temperature. 3.4.2.Geophysical data The topography data for the study area were obtained from a 10x10 DEM from the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources 2006 Provincial tiled dataset. The DEM was clipped, converted into ASCII format to be used in the AGNPS GIS tool. Soil data and broad scale land use data were acquired from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s National Soil Data Base (NSDB). Soil data necessary to run the AnnAGNPS software included the soil type and the soil layers within that soil type. Soil type requirements include hydrologic soil group, erodibility k-factor, depth of soil layers, and depth to bedrock, soil name, and texture and the number of soil layers present. Hydrologic soil group is an American soil data component and not directly present in Canadian soil data. Hydrologic soil groups describe saturated hydraulic conductivity and are classified into four categories (from best to worse drained): A, B, C, D. Hydrologic groups were determined using the saturated conductivity values from NSDB data sets and translated into categories A through D. K-factor was estimated using Table 3.1 K ranges by soil texture. Soil layer information included: soil layer depth, bulk density, clay, silt, sand, rock and very fine sand ratios, calcium carbonate content, saturated conductivity, field capacity, wilting point and pH. All of these values were obtained from the NSDB Detailed Soil Survey (DSS). The DSS data had to be manipulated to reflect the correct units of measure required by AnnAGNPS software. 42 Table 3.1 K ranges by soil texture Surface Soil Texture Very fine sand Loamy very fine sand Very fine sandy loam Silt loam Silty clay loam Clay loam Clay Loam Sandy clay loam Heavy clay Fine sand Sandy loam Coarse sandy loam Loamy sand Sand Silty clay Relative Susceptibility to Water Erosion K ranges Very highly susceptible >0.05 Highly susceptible 0.04 - 0.05 Moderately susceptible 0.03 - 0.04 Slightly susceptible 0.007 - 0.03 Very slightly susceptible <0.007 Loamy fine sand Note. Reprinted from (Wall G. , Coote, Pringle, & Shelton, 2002, p. 15) 3.4.3. Land Use Data AnnAGNPS required land use data including field shape polygons, land use type, and management. Land use shape file consists of the landscape fabric of the watershed distinguishing field boundaries from other landscape components such as forests, residential and farmstead, transportation, and water. The shape file was created using the 2006 Southwestern Ontario Orthophotography (SWOOP 2006) (First Base Solutions, 2010) to digitize the watershed. This process outlined fields, roads, farmsteads, urban development, extraction sites, riparian zones, and forest. Land use types consist of the field rotation, a broad agricultural land use descriptor, management schedule (for tillage and fertilizer applications), and the erosion code. Field rotations were compiled from a number of sources. The use of existing land use data from the Agricultural Resource Inventory (ARI), Agronomy Guide for Field Crops - Publication 811, and rotational practices common to conservation management practices were used to inform the creation of crop rotations. Assigning field rotations was completed through the lottery process (see the section below). Broad land use type categories of cropland, pasture, forest, urban, and residential were given by the AnnAGNPS software. Assignment of land use type was straight forward. The use of SWOOP 2006 allowed a visual identification of each type of broad land use. 43 Lottery Field rotations were assigned through the use of a lottery system that determined the rotation and the start year for each field, so AnnAGNPS would have a representative mix of land management for the start year of the simulation. The ARI data set was used to determine the broad scale cropping system of each field. The ARI shape file was clipped to create ARI blocks that contained individual field boundaries. These blocks were then assigned the broad scale cropping system. Cropping systems defined in the ARI are: corn system, grain system, mixed system, continuous row crop system, hay system, and pasture system. There are four individual crop types identified in the ARI: hay, grain, corn, soy. Percentages for individual crops within each cropping system were available in the ARI guide book (see Table 3.2). The percentages were worked out to determine how many fields would to be assigned each of the four crop types. Twelve crop rotations were created and divided into the six cropping systems to fulfill the field rotation component for the AnnAGNPS software. Once the ARI block were determined the fields that fell within each block were recorded and randomized using a true randomizing software, from RANDOMIZE.ORG. Using the previously calculated field count, based on the ARI percentages, each field was randomly assigned a number from one to four, while each crop type, hay, grain, corn, soy was also denoted a number from one to four to determine the initial crop type present. Rotations were then categorized into four cropping systems: continuous row crop, corn system, mixed system and grain system (see Table 3.3). Hay and pasture system were not included because if hay or pasture system were present all six years of rotation were the same and did not need further development. Within each ARI block rotations were randomly assigned using RANDOMIZE.ORG. Error! Reference source not found.Error! Reference source not found. clarifies this process. Rotational sequencing varies within field. A field that has the same rotation as another may be in a different year in the rotation sequence. To mimic this likely reality, the first year of rotation was randomly assigned to each field. In cases where the present crop type has only one occurrence within a rotation that became the first year of rotation. In cases where 44 there was more than one occurrence of the present crop type the year in which they occur was denoted a number and randomly assigned using RANDOMIZE.ORG. Table 3.5 illustrates this process. Table 3.2 Interpreted ARI crop percentages C= corn S= soy GR= grain H= hay P= pasture WH= weedy hay Cropping System Crop Type Coverage Continuous Row Crop C/S 100% each Corn System C/S 40% each Mixed System GR/C/S/H 25% each Grain System GR 85% Hay System H 100% Pasture System sod crop 100% Crop Type Coverage H or G 20% H 15% WH/P Table 3.3 Crop rotations by cropping system CONTINUOUS ROW CROP CORN SYSTEM MIXED SYSTEM GRAIN SYSTEM HAY SYSTEM CCSCCS CSWCSW CSWHHH WBHHHC HHHHHH CSCSCS CSCHHH CSWBHH OrcBHHHC COrcHHCS COrcHHCS SWHHHC 45 Table 3.4 Rotational sequence creation Coarse ARI description of the cropping system Field count within each system block Block 1 Count 10 MIXED SYSTEM MIXED SYSTEM MIXED SYSTEM MIXED SYSTEM MIXED SYSTEM MIXED SYSTEM MIXED SYSTEM MIXED SYSTEM MIXED SYSTEM MIXED SYSTEM Block 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 GRAIN SYSTEM GRAIN SYSTEM GRAIN SYSTEM GRAIN SYSTEM Randomized field IDs Crop Type Crop type Hay 5 5 5 5 5 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 221 226 530 178 176 226 530 221 179 175 177 174 180 2 2 3 2 4 4 1 1 3 1 240 241 242 243 365 241 243 240 365 242 4 2 4 3 3 Count 4 40 40 40 40 Grain 1 Count 5 CORN SYSTEM CORN SYSTEM CORN SYSTEM CORN SYSTEM CORN SYSTEM Block 40 Field ID number 20 60 71 75 71 60 20 75 1 2 2 2 Corn 2 Soy 3 4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0 0.5 1 2 2 2 2 0.15 0.85 0 0 0.6 1 3.4 3 0 0 0 0 < Interpreted ARI percentages by crop type < Necessary number of fields per crop < Assigned crop type amount 46 Table 3.5 Randomization of the first year of rotations Start Year Key Randomly Generated year # Crop Start Year Crop Type 1 2 3 1 3 5 corn 4 5 6 2 4 6 soy Random Rotation Assignment Randomly Generated year # Start Yr Final Rotation Sequence CSCSCS 1 1 CSCSCS 2 CSCSCS 1 1 CSCSCS SOY 2 CSCSCS 4 2 SCSCSC 4 SOY 2 CSCSCS 5 4 SCSCSC 355 4 SOY 2 CSCSCS 5 4 SCSCSC CRC 26 3 CORN 2 CSCSCS 3 5 CSCSCS CRC 199 4 2 CSCSCS 6 6 SCSCSC CRC 160 3 CORN 2 CSCSCS 1 1 CSCSCS CRC 196 3 CORN 2 CSCSCS 1 1 CSCSCS CRC 198 4 2 CSCSCS 4 2 SCSCSC ARI system ID_num Start Crop CRC* 160 3 CORN 2 CRC 196 3 CORN CRC 198 4 CRC 27 CRC SOY SOY 47 Management data Management schedules identify the tillage and nutrient management approaches for the field. These approaches identify the type of land use and denote a code to be used within the modeling software. These codes connect with other files that give the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) runoff curve numbers and the management schedules of crop rotations. Runoff curve numbers were determined through the use of given files that came with the AnnAGNPS software. Management schedule files consist of the runoff curve number code, field schedule, management operations and fertilizer application. Field schedule refers to the operations that happen within each field. This file outlines the planting, fertilizing, harvesting and tillage practice and timing. Planting and fertilizer dates were gleaned from the OMAFRA publication 811 section for each crop type. The use of best yields and their planting windows and crop growing days determined planting dates. Fertilizer application dates were based on the optimal time to fertilize for best yield and plant development. Types of fertilizer were determined by the most common fertilizers used according to the “Canadian Farm Fuel and Fertilizer: Prices and Expenses” (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 2012). Those fertilizers were then sourced out at a fertilizer retailer local to the study area. Fertilizers that were available and in current use by local farmers were used as the fertilizer types for the fertilizer data set for the watershed. Erosion codes could range from one to four (least to most-erodible). Correspondence with an AnnAGNPS technician and the use of the AH-703 (pg. 34) software documentation resulted in the choice of three for the erosion code. This code identifies rill erosion as the dominant erosive force for bare soil. This code was used because of Canadian winter. In the spring during the thaw, frozen soils have no capability to absorb water, as they are already saturated. The dominant erosive force during this time is rill erosion. Rill erosion can be defined as small channels formed by overland flow of runoff from a storm event. 48 3.4.4.Model Simulation Time Step The AnnAGNPS model is capable of varying time steps of daily, monthly, and yearly. For this study the time step used was one year to match cropping cycles. Simulation period for the watershed study was six years. Six years is the duration of rotational sequencing. Modeling was done for the full six years to produce average annual results across full rotational sequences for nutrients; sediment and water yield because the evaluation was of how water quality changed after relocating rotational sequences to more appropriate geophysical locations. 3.4.5.AnnAGNPS Cells AnnAGNPS cells are the basis for simulation. They are layered with all of the climatic, geophysical, and land use data that has been generated and collected. AnnAGNPS returns results based on the cell ID. To create the cells a concentration source area (CSA) value is to be determined by the user. For this study a value of 5ha was used. This creates small cell sizes and represents the watershed better than a larger CSA size. 49 Figure 3.3 AnnAGNPS generated cells 3.5. Site Analysis Land use was the only parameter that was altered in the designed scenario. Management practices used in the baseline scenario were kept the same in the designed scenario. That is, fertility, tillage, and timing practice data sets were not altered. The alternative design change rotation locations only. The process to determine whether or not a field changed rotations was selected based on adjacency, geophysical characteristics, and the rotation type. 3.5.1.Adjacency Adjacencies were prioritized by type of neighbour. There are three classifications that were ranked in order of design priority: stream, headwaters, and field. Adjacencies are key because identifying what a field drains into or onto illuminates what possibility there is for runoff to deposit sediments or infiltrate into the ground before it enters the water course. Fields that are directly adjacent to open water or 50 concentrated flow have no or limited opportunity of interruption before they hit the riparian zone and subsequently the flow zone. Fields that drained directly into streams were ranked higher than fields that drained into headwaters. The rationale behind this is water that enters into the stream has no opportunity to infiltrate into the ground or to deposit any suspended particles on the landscape before the end point of a watercourse. Headwaters however, have some, yet limited, opportunity for infiltration and deposition before they concentrate into a stream. Fields were ranked last within the adjacency parameter because there is greater possibility for infiltration and deposition as runoff flows from one field to the next. 3.5.2.Geophysical characteristics Geophysical characteristics were analyzed next because regardless of what is happening culturally in the field these characteristics influence the occurrence of erosion. Four characteristic were identified to determine susceptibility of soil loss within the watershed: land curvature, K factor, slope, and accumulation. Characteristics were ordered in terms of their effect on erosion potential: Field curvature Fields that are predominantly convex along the dominant slope profile were identified and subdivided into two categories, depositional and non-depositional. Depositional convex slopes have an area at the bottom of the slope profile in the field that in concave and could potentially be an area of deposition for runoff. Those that did not have an area of deposition were ranked higher than fields that did because there is no likely opportunity for deposition before runoff leaves the field to continue its flow path. Erodibility factor (K-factor) K-factor (K) "is a quantitative measure of a soil's inherent susceptibility/resistance to erosion and the soil's influence on runoff amount and rate" (Wall G. , Coote, Pringle, & Shelton, 2002). High K values are more likely to transport in rain events, while low K values are less likely. The use of k-factors determined where in the watershed likely occurrences of erosion would take place based on the soil characteristics. K values were mapped across the watershed. Figure 3.4 depicts K 51 values across the watershed. K-factor was reclassified into three range classes based on the table from RUSLEFAC (Table 3.1) (Wall G. J., Coote, Pringle, & Shelton, 2002). Fields that contained any HS Kfactors were considered for cover change. These fields were then ranked high to low into three classes denoted by one, two and three respectively. Class one indicated fields that have 55% or more of its area in the highly susceptible range of k factor. Class two fields contained a mix of HS and MS K range. Class three fields are composed of a mixture of HS and SS and VSS K range. (See Table 3.6). Table 3.6 K-factor reclassification 55%+ : 55% or more of the field area, HS: highly susceptible K= 0.04 - 0.05, MS: moderately susceptible K= 0.03 - 0.04, SS: slightly susceptible K= 0.007 - 0.03, VSS very slightly susceptible K= ≤ 0.00 55%+ HS 1 142 144 155 156 237 239 240 241 279 282 283 326 327 330 331 332 333 334 HS &MS 2 337 346 347 350 354 365 395 417 420 422 28 138 139 140 270 274 275 277 278 280 321 322 323 324 329 355 368 396 HS &SS/VSS 3 397 399 414 415 416 418 419 201 202 238 345 349 52 Figure 3.4 K-factor Slope gradient Slope data were computed from a DEM. The study area has slopes that range from nearly level (0-2%) to strong slopes (33%+). Slopes were classified into ten slope categories (see Table 3.7). Of particular importance are slopes that are above 5% because these slopes move water at a fast enough rate to potentially cause erosion. Fields that had slopes ranging from 5%-33% were further analysed. Slope gradients were mixed within field boundaries, so a classification system was developed. Slopes were reclassified based on how much of the field area was covered by the slope range. Classes of 3/4+, 1/2, 1/3, 1/4 coverage were created and each class given a numerical value from one to four respectively. 53 Table 3.7 Slope classification Slope class Percent slope Approximate degrees Terminology 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0-0.5 >0.5-2 >2-5 >5-10 >10-15 >15-30 >30-45 >45-70 >70-100 >100 0 0.3-1.1 >1.1-3 >3-5 >5-8.5 >8.5-16.5 >16.5-24 >24-35 >35-45 >45 level nearly level very gentle slopes gentle slopes moderate slopes strong slopes very strong slopes extreme slopes steep slopes very steep slopes Note. Reprinted from (Soil Classification Working Group, 2013, pg. 149) Table 3.8 Slope gradient reclassification Proportion of field in slope class Slope code Field numbers in gradient class 1 33 37 159 161 191 194 207 3/4+ 1/2 1/3 1/4 1 2 3 4 219 222 224 225 226 228 231 258 259 261 446 453 60 2 30 34 69 70 154 158 162 166 233 235 236 310 337 422 433 444 448 450 458 463 3 19 38 65 74 163 195 211 218 223 229 240 241 256 308 334 412 443 445 454 4 21 22 67 112 148 175 189 237 244 252 260 292 307 316 350 54 420 423 743 Figure 3.5 Reclassification of slope Slope accumulation Slope length of fields was measured to determine how much water accumulation a field receives. As the slope length increases without interruption there is more water that accumulates and is flowing down the slope profile. Suspended soil particles increase as water continues down the slope, increasing scouring, this increases erosion. Fields were analysed to determine how many fields were draining into each one, and were categorized into three classes 5+, 3-4, 2, and given a number of one to three respectively (see Table 3.9). The protocol for determining a continuous slope length (multiple fields draining into another) was taken from the RUSLE handbook. 55 Table 3.9 Accumulation count Number of fields draining into another Accumulation code Field numbers in accumulation class 1 17 26 46 64 65 5+ 3-4 2 1 2 3 69 113 200 230 232 272 325 350 379 402 418 441 2 90 104 206 212 307 316 338 369 3 2 79 120 184 185 211 297 Figure 3.6 Slope accumulation 56 3.5.1.Land Use Twelve rotational sequences were assigned to the fields in the watershed. The twelve rotations were ranked by the amount of nutrient inputs. Rotations were ranked by nitrogen and phosphorus. The two ordered data sets had different rotations in rank 1-7 but had the same rotations in rank 8-12. Nitrogen is more mobile in the landscape than phosphorus. Because of this, nitrogen was the variable that rotational sequences were ordered by to determine priority of field cover change. However, to include the high ranking phosphorus rotations the top seven ranking rotations in the nitrogen data set were used to elicit cover change. Table 3.10 Rotation ranking ROTATION N P N RANK CCSCCS 412 240 1 CSWCSW 350 180 2 CSCSCS 273 210 3 COrcHHCS 168 190 4 CSWBHH 157 160 5 WBHHHC 157 160 6 CSCHHH 133 190 7 OrcBHHHC 122 160 8 SWHHHC 112 160 9 CSWHHH 112 160 10 HHHHHH 15 130 11 Pasture 0 0 12 Rotation codes: C is corn; S is soybeans; W is wheat; Orc is oats under seeded with red clover; H is hay, B is barley 3.6. Alternative Design The purpose of the alternative design was to keep land use in fixed proportions to the base scenario while reconfiguring the landscape based on design rules. It only changed land use, while keeping management, climatic, and geophysical inputs the same as the base scenario. Design rules were developed to determine which AnnAGNPS cells needed to be changed. Geophysical and rotation characteristics were used as deciding factors for changing land use in a field. 57 3.6.1.Design Method The design rules ordered fields to be considered for change. Ordering of fields was done based on field adjacency, geophysical and rotational properties. Adjacency to headwaters, streams, and fields were ordered from highest to lowest priority respectively. Geophysical characteristics were all ordered within each component as seen in section 3.3.2. Fields that had rotational values from eight to twelve (see Error! Reference source not found.) were left as is in the redesign process. Fields that had rotational values of one to seven were considered for change because these were most likely to lead to soil erosion. The number of geophysical analysis parameters present in each field were then tallied and assigned as the score for the field. Fields with more parameters fulfilled- a higher score value- were ranked highest in the design priority. The score was ordered from highest to lowest, four to one. Those fields that had high score numbers and fell in an area of headwaters or streams were considered first and second priority for change (see Table 3.11). Fields that were adjacent to another field were considered third priority. Table 3.11 Field parameter scoring process LU_ID N ran k Adjacenc y Curvatur e SCHHHC WBHHHC SCHHHC WBHHHC WCSWCS LU_52 LU_28 LU_52 LU_28 LU_58 7 6 7 6 2 HW HW HW HW HW X V X X X 156 130 376 370 62 67 HHCSCOrc HHCSCOrc CSWCSW CSCOrcHH SCOrcHHC SWCSWC LU_44 LU_44 LU_8 LU_37 LU_53 LU_56 4 4 2 4 4 2 HW HW HW HW HW HW V 40 SCOrcHHC LU_53 4 ST ID # Rotation 64 374 367 47 70 Kfactor Slope accumulatio n Slope gradien t 4 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 3 1 1 1 scor e HW: headwaters, ST: stream, X: convex curvature, V: concave curvature Not all fields were classified as needing to change by the design rules. Fields that were next to headwaters or streams and already had field rotations that ranked from eight to twelve for nitrogen 58 demands were left the same. Fields that were not located next to head waters or streams and had no concerning geophysical characteristics were used to switch out fields that were considered for change. The purpose of this experiment was to keep the composition of the watershed as similar as possible when changing the configuration. Total area was calculated for each field rotation type as determined by the lottery process. All fields were assigned an area in hectares. Area of each field was used to try and keep the proportions of field rotations as close to equal as possible during the reconfiguration. In most cases fields that being switched with each other did not directly match the other field area that was available for change. Multiple field areas that had the same land use ID were combined to make pairing and switching easier (see Table 3.13). Area values were kept relatively equal to the original area values; however total areas were not exactly matched (see Table 3.12). Table 3.12 Area difference by rotation Rotation Area Difference (ha) Rotation Area Difference (ha) CCSCCS COrcHHCS CSCHHH CSCSCS CSWBHH CSWCSW CSWHHH HHHHHH OrcBHHHC Pasture_G SWHHHC WBHHHC BHHCSW BHHHCOrc BHHHCW CHHHCS CSCCSC CSCOrcHH HCSCHH HCSCOrcH -0.45 = = = -0.11 -0.08 0.14 -0.45 = 0.57 0.08 0.32 = -0.07 = 0.02 = 0.14 = 0.04 HCSWBH HCSWHH HHCOrcBH HHCSCH HHCSCOrc HHCSWB HHCSWH HHHCSC HHHCSW HHHCWB OrcHHCSC SCCSCC SCHHHC SCOrcHHC SCSCSC SWBHHC SWCSWC WBHHCS WCSWCS WHHHCS = 0.05 = = -0.08 -0.04 0.02 = 0.01 = -0.02 = -0.57 -0.34 = 0.01 0.08 = 0.19 0.57 Rotation codes: C: corn; S: soybeans; W: wheat; Orc: oats under seeded with red clover; H: hay, B: barley 59 Table 3.13 Rotation changing process ID_num 64 374 367 47 70 156 130 376 370 62 67 40 346 123 248 91 110 212 313 33 141 117 120 438 81 105 257 146 462 113 279 34 267 38 108 226 78 744 463 122 133 394 132 315 51 349 350 57 165 184 354 43 124 145 292 Rotation SCHHHC WBHHHC SCHHHC WBHHHC WCSWCS HHCSCOrc HHCSCOrc CSWCSW CSCOrcHH SCOrcHHC SWCSWC SCOrcHHC SWBHHC HHCSWB SWCSWC HCSCOrcH COrcHHCS SCHHHC SCHHHC CSWBHH SWBHHC SCOrcHHC OrcHHCSC CHHHCS SWCSWC CSWCSW SWCSWC HCSCOrcH WCSWCS OrcHHCSC OrcHHCSC HCSCOrcH SCHHHC OrcHHCSC COrcHHCS COrcHHCS HCSCOrcH HHCSCOrc CSWCSW OrcHHCSC HHCSCOrc SCOrcHHC OrcHHCSC WCSWCS OrcHHCSC COrcHHCS HHCSCOrc CSWCSW CSWCSW CSWCSW CCSCCS SCOrcHHC HHCSCOrc COrcHHCS HHCSCOrc ROTATIONS TO BE CHANGED LU_ID RANK ADJ CURVE K ACC SL % SCORE AREA HA ASSIGNMENT TOTAL AREA LU_52 7 HW X 4 2 6.29 A 26.12 LU_28 6 HW V 2 2 2.06 B 4.70 LU_52 7 HW X 1 5.95 A LU_28 6 HW X 1 2.64 B LU_58 2 HW X 1 7.91 C 7.91 LU_44 4 HW V 1 3.75 D 15.96 LU_44 4 HW 1 1 12.21 D LU_8 2 HW 1 1 3.18 E 3.18 LU_37 4 HW 1 1 13.83 F 13.83 LU_53 4 HW 3 1 12.37 G 12.37 LU_56 2 HW 3 1 6.82 H 6.82 LU_53 4 ST 1 1 4 3 3.45 J 7.23 LU_55 5 ST X 2 2 1.96 K 6.40 LU_45 5 ST X 3 2 3.43 I 3.43 LU_56 2 ST V 2 2 9.30 M 18.05 LU_39 4 ST V 1 2 9.46 N 29.45 LU_4 4 ST V 2 2 1.84 U LU_52 7 ST 1 2 2 7.02 A LU_52 7 ST X 1 2.28 A LU_7 5 ST X 1 1.50 O 1.50 LU_55 5 ST X 1 4.44 K LU_53 4 ST X 1 3.78 J LU_50 4 ST X 1 7.42 Q 23.09 LU_35 7 ST V 1 10.64 L 10.64 LU_56 2 ST V 1 3.37 M LU_8 2 ST V 1 9.23 R 14.63 LU_56 2 ST V 1 5.38 M LU_39 4 ST 1 1 1.95 N LU_58 2 ST 1 1 5.18 S 5.57 LU_50 4 ST 2 1 4.03 Q LU_50 4 ST 2 1 8.24 Q LU_39 4 ST 3 1 6.23 N LU_52 7 ST 3 1 4.58 A LU_50 4 ST 3 1 3.41 Q LU_4 4 ST 1 1 2.05 U 18.74 LU_4 4 ST 1 1 6.36 U LU_39 4 ST 2 1 11.80 N LU_44 4 ST 2 1 5.18 W LU_8 2 ST 2 1 5.40 R LU_50 4 ST 3 1 6.99 V 15.38149515 LU_44 4 ST 3 1 6.58 W 11.75747593 LU_53 4 ST 3 1 5.95 P 9.523289968 LU_50 4 ST 4 1 3.53 V LU_58 2 ST 4 1 0.39 S LU_50 4 HW 0 4.86 V LU_4 4 HW 0 4.85 U LU_44 4 HW 0 7.25 Y 10.78696375 LU_8 2 HW 0 6.92 T 23.64844325 LU_8 2 HW 0 12.47 T LU_8 2 HW 0 4.26 T LU_3 1 HW 6.46 X 6.457979631 LU_53 4 ST 0 3.57 P LU_44 4 ST 0 2.24 Y LU_4 4 ST 0 3.63 U LU_44 4 ST 0 1.30 Y REPLACEMENT ROTATIONS avail. CELLS USED (ID #) AREA 218 223 219 26.69 158 4.38 162 300 301 458 453 650 299 298 298 202 174 143 293 128 205 306 302 302 443 318 319 272 268 276 334 265 404 270 352 297 649 356 4 269 245 116 430 16 433 20 151 144 428 317 319 442 AREA LEFTOVER 0.57 -0.32 7.93 15.93 0.02 -0.03 3.18 13.70 12.34 6.90 7.07 6.39 3.47 17.90 29.40 0.00 -0.14 -0.03 0.07 -0.16 -0.01 0.04 -0.15 -0.04 1.62 0.11 23.10 10.62 0.01 -0.02 14.68 0.04 5.36 -0.20 18.735499 0.00 15.392884 11.734731 10.050468 0.01 -0.02 0.53 10.917887 23.694016 0.13 0.05 6.9128707 0.45 Adjacency priority: Red to yellow (high to low); rotation areas grouped for switch by colour 60 3.6.2. Configuration Results The resulting design changed the fabric of the landscape to better suit its geophysical features and characteristics. Most field changes based on the design rules occurred adjacent to streams and head waters. There were not enough low input rotations in the watershed to change fields beyond key adjacent areas. Approximately 615 ha were reconfigured. Of that, 315 ha of fields with ill suited rotations were switched with 300 ha of low ranking rotations. All of the key adjacencies, identified in the site analysis, were changed successfully to hopefully decrease agricultural pollutants leaving the watershed and discharging into the stream. Figure 3.7 Fields changed by the design 61 Figure 3.8 AnnAGNPS cells changed by the design 62 4.0 Results This chapter describes the AnnAGNPS output for the baseline and the designed alternative landscape. It focuses on nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus), sediment, and water runoff for the study area. The chapter concludes by comparing the relative change that resulted from re-designing the agricultural landscape pattern. 4.1. Nitrogen Total nitrogen estimated by AnnAGNPS decreased from the baseline to the designed scenario. Nitrogen yielded 2.98 kg/ha/yr nitrogen in the baseline. The redesigned scenario had estimated nitrogen yields of 2.84kg/ha/yr. Attached nitrogen in the baseline scenario produced 2.18 kg/ha/yr. The design decreased by 6.42% from the baseline with a yield of 2.04 kg/ha/yr. Dissolved nitrogen yielded from the baseline watershed configuration was 0.81 kg/ha/yr, while the designed watershed configuration yielded 0.80 kg/ha/yr. Watershed totals for each nutrient state and the overall total of nitrogen are presented in Table 4.1 Table 4.1 Base to design nitrogen yield comparison Base Scenario Designed Scenario kg/ha/yr Percentage Change (from base) % Attached 2.18 2.04 -6.42 Dissolved 0.81 0.80 -1.23 Total Nitrogen 2.98 2.84 -4.70 63 Pollution yield is estimated by AnnAGNPS. AnnAGNPS raster cell structure reports outputs at a fine scale. There are over 1100 cells that the pollutant model simulated to estimate pollution outputs for the study area. Increases and decreases of attached, dissolved, and total nitrogen within the watershed were expected as rotational sequences were relocated to better suited landscape position. Some cells were expected to increase more than others as rotations were taken from one part of the land and relocated to another. Most AnnAGNPS cells are within a conceivable range of increase or decrease; however, there are some particular cells to note. High unexpected increase values are outlined in Table 4.2. Table 4.2 Percentage difference over 100% for N by AnnAGNPS cell Attached Nitrogen Base Cell # 42 122 123 172 251 253 262 283 493 502 531 551 552 553 562 593 623 643 653 673 683 692 712 713 723 Design kg/ha/yr 0.30 1.85 1.54 4.34 4.16 7.48 11.28 0.83 0.72 1.51 0.53 0.08 0.05 0.05 0.07 0.00 2.05 11.25 4.16 2.69 3.70 2.65 3.07 2.48 1.19 2.01 2.75 2.27 0.66 1.08 1.98 2.98 3.49 0.10 0.20 2.52 5.31 1.68 1.93 2.53 1.52 0.00 1.65 1.58 6.06 8.35 5.96 0.00 0.00 0.34 Percentage Difference % 582.03 48.70 48.05 -84.71 -73.98 -73.55 -73.55 318.59 -86.19 -86.51 377.99 6378.05 3556.52 3466.67 3459.15 + -100.00 -85.34 -62.01 125.64 125.59 125.14 -100.00 -100.00 -71.36 Dissolved Nitrogen Base Design kg/ha/yr 0.80 0.74 0.73 0.08 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.36 0.07 0.07 0.76 0.07 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.08 0.19 0.68 0.67 0.67 0.06 0.06 0.21 0.05 2.98 2.97 0.20 0.92 0.92 0.91 3.96 0.80 0.80 0.51 1.29 0.83 0.80 0.80 1.19 0.18 0.20 2.08 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.18 0.18 0.70 Percentage Difference % -93.26 305.31 305.87 163.16 522.45 523.13 516.22 1012.08 1065.22 1059.42 -33.38 1884.62 4805.88 4316.67 4338.89 3490.91 200.00 161.84 1024.86 -61.62 -59.70 -60.12 195.08 196.72 234.93 Total Nitrogen Base Design kg/ha/yr 1.10 2.58 2.27 4.42 4.31 7.63 11.42 1.19 0.79 1.57 1.29 0.15 0.06 0.07 0.09 0.03 2.11 11.33 4.34 3.37 4.37 3.31 3.13 2.54 1.40 2.07 5.72 5.25 0.86 2.00 2.90 3.89 7.45 0.90 1.00 3.03 6.60 2.52 2.72 3.33 2.71 0.18 1.85 3.66 6.32 8.62 6.22 0.18 0.18 1.04 Percentage Difference % 88.41 121.65 131.26 -80.47 -53.62 -62.05 -65.91 526.05 14.00 -36.21 134.55 4391.16 3829.69 3680.56 3595.56 8100.00 -91.34 -83.69 -15.71 87.79 97.32 87.83 -94.25 -92.88 -25.78 64 732 742 811 951 972 981 982 992 993 1052 1092 1093 0.00 0.00 2.60 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.08 0.55 0.41 1.58 0.13 0.12 7.80 7.24 7.72 0.88 1.47 1.13 1.95 0.69 2.60 0.24 3.57 4.61 + + 196.54 4066.67 7255.00 7406.67 2494.67 26.61 527.54 -85.00 2668.99 3908.70 0.18 0.18 0.83 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.21 0.42 0.03 0.10 0.10 0.06 0.06 0.90 0.61 0.72 0.72 0.90 0.53 0.63 0.71 3.20 0.97 -66.67 -66.11 8.18 3470.59 4152.94 4129.41 2142.50 156.31 50.24 2428.57 3132.32 868.00 0.18 0.18 3.44 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.12 0.75 0.83 1.61 0.23 0.21 7.86 7.30 8.62 1.48 2.19 1.85 2.84 1.22 3.23 0.95 6.77 5.58 4196.72 3956.11 150.95 3797.37 5829.73 5665.63 2371.30 62.18 287.52 -41.23 2869.74 2506.07 Positive values indicate an increase while negative numbers indicate a decrease. + refers to an increase where the percentage difference could not be calculated because one value was zero 4.2. Phosphorus Phosphorus is estimated by AnnAGNPS in two forms, attached and dissolved. Overall total estimated phosphorus yield increased by 0.09 kg/ha/yr. Attached phosphorus saw the only decrease in yield quantity. Baseline yield was estimated at 0.64 kg/ha/yr, while the designed scenario returned an estimate of 0.60 kg/ha/yr. Dissolved phosphorus increased by 4.28% in yield from the baseline scenario to the designed scenario. Yields were estimated by AnnAGNPS to be 3.04 kg/ha/yr in the baseline. The designed scenario estimation was a yield of 3.17 kg/ha/yr. Table 4.3 Base to design phosphorus yield comparison Baseline Scenario Designed Scenario kg/ha/yr Percentage Change (from base) % Attached 0.64 0.60 -6.25 Dissolved 3.04 3.17 +4.28 Total Phosphorus 3.68 3.77 +2.45 65 Much like nitrogen, there were specific cells that increased above expected range. Individual AnnAGNPS cell increases and decreases were expected to fluctuate through the reconfiguration process. However, there are some cells that increased or decreased higher than 100%. These cells are outlined in Table 4.4. Table 4.4 Percentage difference over 100% for P by AnnAGNPS cell Attached Phosphorus Base Cell # 42 251 253 262 283 371 531 551 552 553 562 653 673 683 692 712 732 742 811 951 972 981 982 992 993 1092 1093 Design kg/ha/yr 0.09 1.23 2.22 3.34 0.25 1.24 0.16 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.02 1.23 0.78 1.07 0.77 0.93 0.00 0.00 0.76 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.17 0.13 0.04 0.04 0.62 0.33 0.60 0.90 1.01 0.04 0.76 1.55 0.50 0.56 0.74 0.48 1.81 2.49 1.78 0.00 2.36 2.19 2.24 0.26 0.44 0.34 0.58 0.21 0.77 1.04 1.39 Percentage Change % 601.14 -73.40 -72.98 -72.97 300.00 -96.77 379.11 6084.00 3471.43 3418.75 3414.29 -60.94 132.09 131.97 131.55 -100.00 + + 196.04 4250.00 7250.00 6660.00 2536.36 23.21 514.40 2564.10 3865.71 Dissolved Phosphorus Base Design kg/ha/yr 0.11 1.01 1.01 1.02 4.69 1.61 0.12 5.35 0.09 4.29 4.25 1.61 4.01 4.05 4.05 2.33 0.21 0.21 4.06 0.09 0.09 0.09 4.88 0.08 4.17 6.02 6.03 0.00 5.25 5.25 5.24 4.80 6.91 0.67 5.87 1.23 4.72 4.73 6.88 5.19 5.19 5.20 0.21 2.30 2.33 4.81 0.36 1.02 1.03 5.19 0.67 4.67 4.68 5.29 Percentage Change % -100.00 417.46 418.48 412.12 2.32 329.91 486.09 9.66 1219.35 10.09 11.24 327.13 29.22 28.18 28.30 -90.94 989.57 1003.32 18.51 290.11 1025.27 1014.13 6.34 768.83 12.02 -22.36 -12.27 Total Phosphorus Base Design kg/ha/yr 0.20 2.25 3.23 4.36 4.95 2.85 0.27 5.38 0.11 4.31 4.28 2.84 4.79 5.12 4.82 3.26 0.21 0.21 4.81 0.10 0.10 0.10 4.90 0.24 4.29 6.06 6.07 0.62 5.58 5.85 6.14 5.81 6.95 1.43 7.42 1.73 5.29 5.47 7.36 7.00 7.68 6.97 0.21 4.66 4.52 7.05 0.62 1.47 1.36 5.77 0.88 5.44 5.72 6.68 Percentage Change % 208.50 148.11 81.05 40.74 17.49 144.14 424.18 37.91 1514.02 22.75 27.93 159.15 45.94 49.92 44.70 -93.52 2106.64 2040.28 46.46 535.05 1394.90 1318.75 17.70 259.43 26.68 -5.74 10.10 + refers to an increase where the percentage difference could not be calculated because one value was zero = represents no change when a calculation couldn’t be completed because a zero value was present 66 4.3. Sediment Sediment data is broken down by particulate types: clay, silt, sand, and small and large aggregates. All particle types decreased or remained the same from the baseline scenario to the designed scenario. Estimated clay yield in the baseline scenario was 0.09 tonnes/ha/yr. The designed scenario clay yield was estimated at 0.08 tonnes/ha/yr. The baseline yielded 0.24 tonnes/ha/yr of silt. This decreased in the designed scenario to 0.22 tonnes/ha/yr. Sand particle yield in the baseline scenario was 0.10 tonnes/ha/yr. The designed scenario yielded less sand with an estimate of 0.09 tonnes/ha/yr. Small and large aggregates were not yielded from the landscape in either the baseline or the designed scenarios. See Table 4.5 for comparison of sediment particles from baseline to designed scenario. Percentage difference by cell number is presented in Table 4.6. . Table 4.5 Base to design sediment yield comparison Baseline Scenario Designed Scenario Percentage Change (from base) tonnes/ha/yr Clay 0.09 0.08 -11.11 Silt 0.24 0.22 -8.33 Sand 0.10 0.09 -10.00 Sm. Agg. 0.00 0.00 0.00 Lg. Agg. 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total Sediment 0.42 0.39 -7.14 This is sediment yield for rill erosion only, based on the model erosion type selected 67 Table 4.6 Percentage difference over100% for sediment particles by AnnAGNPS cell Clay Cell # Base Design tonnes/ha/yr 42 223 243 283 531 551 552 553 562 623 673 683 692 712 713 811 951 972 981 982 993 1092 1093 Silt Percentage Change % Sand Percentage Base Design Change tonnes/ha/yr % Base Total Sediment Percentage Design Change tonnes/ha/yr % Base Design Percentage Change tonnes/ha/yr % 0.01 0.05 542.86 0.03 0.22 535.29 0.02 0.11 581.25 0.06 0.37 549.12 0.16 0.25 58.86 0.30 0.49 61.92 0.05 0.10 120.00 0.51 0.84 65.94 0.15 0.24 57.62 0.29 0.46 61.67 0.04 0.09 123.81 0.48 0.80 65.83 0.04 0.18 400.00 0.08 0.43 410.71 0.02 0.16 685.00 0.14 0.77 447.14 0.01 0.06 425.00 0.06 0.29 400.00 0.03 0.16 423.33 0.10 0.51 403.96 0.00 0.22 7100.00 0.01 1.00 7576.92 0.00 0.04 4100.00 0.02 1.26 7282.35 0.00 0.04 4200.00 0.01 0.20 3820.00 0.00 0.11 3600.00 0.01 0.35 4275.00 0.00 0.05 5200.00 0.00 0.15 3625.00 0.00 0.19 4675.00 0.01 0.39 4266.67 0.00 0.07 3400.00 0.01 0.20 3800.00 0.01 0.24 3916.67 0.01 0.51 4116.67 0.05 0.00 -100.00 0.19 0.00 -100.00 0.11 0.00 -100.00 0.34 0.00 -100.00 0.07 0.15 118.57 0.27 0.58 118.80 0.20 0.43 115.15 0.53 1.16 117.64 0.10 0.21 118.75 0.37 0.80 118.85 0.27 0.59 116.18 0.74 1.60 117.55 0.07 0.15 117.39 0.26 0.57 118.70 0.19 0.42 116.06 0.52 1.14 117.56 0.07 0.00 -100.00 0.27 0.00 -100.00 0.16 0.00 -100.00 0.51 0.00 -100.00 0.06 0.00 -100.00 0.22 0.00 -100.00 0.13 0.00 -100.00 0.41 0.00 -100.00 0.07 0.22 216.18 0.27 0.83 201.82 0.16 0.59 268.75 0.50 1.63 225.55 0.00 0.02 + 0.00 0.10 4750.00 0.00 0.06 5600.00 0.00 0.18 4275.00 0.00 0.04 + 0.00 0.17 8400.00 0.00 0.09 8800.00 0.00 0.30 7275.00 0.00 0.03 + 0.00 0.13 6550.00 0.00 0.07 6700.00 0.00 0.23 7533.33 0.00 0.06 2950.00 0.01 0.22 3042.86 0.00 0.10 2425.00 0.01 0.38 2628.57 0.01 0.08 583.33 0.05 0.30 547.83 0.01 0.13 807.14 0.07 0.51 604.17 0.01 0.21 3316.67 0.01 0.45 3323.08 0.00 0.11 3466.67 0.02 0.76 3191.30 0.01 0.24 4780.00 0.01 0.53 4291.67 0.00 0.09 3033.33 0.02 0.87 4230.00 + An increase where the percentage difference could not be calculated because one value was zero 4.4. Water Yield Direct runoff produced in the watershed was measured as a watershed total in two ways, subsurface and surface. Water yield was estimated by AnnAGNPS for the entire watershed, not each individual cell. The watershed saw an overall increase of runoff production in the designed scenario. Baseline scenario total runoff amount was estimated at 113.22 mm/yr. The designed scenario yielded more runoff with an estimated 117.01 mm/yr. Subsurface runoff amounted to 2.25 mm/yr in the baseline scenario. The designed scenario produced an estimate of 1.91 mm/yr. Surface runoff increased from baseline to designed scenario. Baseline estimates totaled 110.97 mm/yr. AnnAGNPS estimated 68 surface runoff for the designed scenario at 115.10 mm/yr. See Table 4.7 for percentage change of total runoff, subsurface and surface runoff. Some cells within the simulation changed far more than expected in the onset of the simulation. There was an expectation for some to change more than others, but some of the percentage change values came as a bit of a surprise because they were so high. These cells have been recorded in Table 4.8. Table 4.7 Base to design water yield comparison Base Line Designed Scenario Percentage Change mm/yr % Subsurface 2.25 1.91 -15.11 Surface 110.97 115.10 3.72 Total Water 113.22 117.01 3.35 Table 4.8 Percentage change over 100% for water by AnnAGNPS cell Cell # Base Subsurface Percentage Design change mm/yr 42 112 162 163 223 243 392 463 732 742 811 851 862 863 951 5.90 10.31 2.36 2.26 8.23 8.13 2.26 6.14 3.23 3.47 6.36 2.30 2.28 2.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.20 2.21 0.00 12.88 11.88 11.88 0.00 % -100.00 -100.00 -100.00 -100.00 -100.00 -100.00 -100.00 -100.00 -32.03 -36.42 -100.00 461.09 420.42 420.28 -100.00 Base Surface Percentage Design change mm/yr 140.77 135.51 126.42 114.75 180.75 180.54 114.52 149.42 3.68 3.88 152.01 119.04 118.65 118.65 148.17 117.38 160.44 139.57 130.31 147.85 147.65 129.95 125.32 147.82 149.21 123.86 141.26 140.89 140.89 123.24 % -16.61 18.40 10.41 13.56 -18.20 -18.21 13.47 -16.13 3912.38 3745.57 -18.52 18.66 18.75 18.75 -16.82 Total Base Design mm/yr 146.66 145.82 128.77 117.01 188.97 188.66 116.78 155.56 6.92 7.35 158.37 121.34 120.93 120.93 148.17 117.38 160.44 139.57 130.31 147.85 147.65 129.95 125.32 150.01 151.42 123.86 154.14 152.77 152.77 123.25 Percentage change % -19.97 10.03 8.39 11.37 -21.76 -21.74 11.28 -19.44 2068.13 1959.24 -21.79 27.03 26.33 26.33 -16.82 69 5.0 Discussion This chapter discusses the results generated from creating the alternate design scenario. It discusses the change in estimated values from AnnAGNPS software for nutrients, sediment and water yield. The change in values that were not expected within each category will be analyzed and possible explanations for percentage changes that are above 100% increase or decrease will be proposed. 5.1. Nitrogen Total nitrogen saw an overall decrease from the baseline scenario to the designed scenario. The designed scenario estimated nitrogen decreased by 4.70%, totaling 0.14 kg/ha/yr less than the baseline scenario. This result was expected from the designed change because nitrogen was directly included in the design process. Nitrogen inputs were used to rank rotational sequencing. Those values determined if the rotation would stay in the existing location or move to a better suited landscape position. This inclusion leads to the logical decrease in estimated total nitrogen yield. Other studies that investigate more perennial based rotations and annual based rotations found that soil nitrogen levels were lower in more perennial rotations (Randall, et al., 1997). This is also substantiated by another study that recorded decreased levels of nitrate in tile drain water when perennial grasses and legumes were included in crop rotations (Huggins, Randall, & Russelle, 2001). Attached nitrogen decreased more than dissolved nitrogen. Attached nitrogen decreased by 6.42%, while dissolved only decreased by 1.23%. Attached nitrogen levels found in output water from the watershed would have a likely decrease if erosion was also reduced in the watershed. Erosion estimates did decrease in the designed scenario making this a likely contributor to the decrease in attached nitrogen yield during simulation. Dissolved nitrogen is mobilized via water and not particles like attached nitrogen. This is more likely to happen through subsurface tile drains than surface runoff as many reports have concluded that there is more inorganic nitrogen in runoff from fields drained via subsurface drainage than undrained fields (Bechann, 2014). Subsurface runoff estimates decreased in the designed scenario which is the most 70 likely method of conveyance of dissolved nitrogen (David, Gentry, Kovacic, & Smith, 1997). The correlation between the decrease in subsurface flow and dissolved nitrogen are strong making a proposed cause of the decrease of dissolved nitrogen likely. Keeping the composition of the watershed as similar to the baseline scenario as possible did not increase or decrease perennial cover at the watershed scale. Therefore, the capability of the watershed to decrease dissolved nitrogen due to heavier perennial incorporation, like the study by Huggins et al (2001), was limited. However, the relocation of heavier perennial rotations close to headwaters and streams seems to have affected the levels of dissolved nitrogen. As shown in Table 4.8 there are a number of cells that increase or decrease over 100%. Individual cells were expected to fluctuate as rotations were reconfigured throughout the watershed. It was not expected that cells would change at such high rates. Analysing the individual cells that had higher than expected calculated percentage change confirmed that the change of rotational location had greatly affected the estimated cell nutrient yield. Taking rotations that are higher in nitrogen inputs and moving them to other locations where they would be further away from key adjacencies would locate high demanding nitrogen rotations with other of a similar input level. This would explain the extremely high values seen in some of the cells. Also, the setup of the simulation created many small cells to best represent the watershed and register the changes made to them. This affected the area of the cells, which, when the higher nitrogen demanding rotations were switched into locations away from key adjacencies, would make the percentage change high. That is, a small area is now producing much more nutrients than previously, which is logical. All of the cells that are shown in Table 4.8 have been determined to be attributed to cells changing from low nitrogen input (rank 8-12) to high nitrogen input rotations (rank 1-7). 5.2. Phosphorus Total phosphorus saw an overall increase in the designed scenario compared to the baseline scenario. As seen in Table 4.3 phosphorus levels were estimated at 3.68 kg/ha/yr in the baseline scenario and 3.77 kg/ha/yr in the designed scenario. Overall, the designed scenario increased estimated phosphorus yield by 2.45%. Phosphorus was not directly included in the design rules like nitrogen because it is considered less mobile in the landscape dues to its ability to fix to multiple elemental components in the 71 soil (Retallack, 2001). There was some consideration for phosphorus levels in the design rules. When the ranking of nitrogen was determined, rotations were split into two divisions of ranks 1-7 and 8-12. The division of the rotations was done this way because top phosphorus input rotations matched the top 7 ranks of nitrogen. This is very indirect; however, trying to include the top phosphorus ranking within the design change rules was attempted. Overall, attached phosphorus was the only state that decreased from the baseline to the designed scenario from 0.64 kg/ha/yr to 0.60 kg/ha/yr (see Table 4.3). Nutrients that are attached to soil particles move through the landscape through erosion. Phosphorus readily adsorbs to soil particles through the reactions with different soil minerals (Retallack, 2001). Decrease of attached phosphorus, as estimated by AnnAGNPS, suggests that decreased levels of erosion would influence this yield estimation. Total erosion estimated by AnnAGNPS decreased from the baseline to the designed scenario by 7.14%. Causes of decreased erosion will be discussed later in this section. Erosion control can be linked to conservation tillage. Conservation tillage decreases the amount of soil disturbance and subsequently movement of soil particles through the landscape by increasing soil coverage, with crop residues, during spring melt and crop establishment (periods of high erosion potential). Conservation tillage was the main management system that was chosen for this study as it is a common practise and widely promoted in Canada (Carter, 1994; Larney et al., 1994). Studies have found that conservation tillage decreased erosion in turn leading to lower rates of sediment and sediment bound nutrients in runoff water (Baker and Laflen, 1983; Fawcett et al, 1994; Sharpley et al, 1994). A number of cells in the designed scenario increased in phosphorus estimates far greater than expected. In Table 4.3 there are 21 cells that increase over 100%. As discussed above there are several factors affecting the loss of phosphorus from the landscape to water. Attached phosphorus is related to erosion. The calculation within the AnnAGNPS software works under the assumption that attachment to soil particles is directly associated with clay content (Bingner, Theurer, & Yuan, 2011). Attached phosphorus increases were seen in 21 cells after simulation, of these, the highest increases are also the highest increases of clay erosion. Most cells that were over 100% increase decreased in 72 phosphorus inputs, based on rotation, from baseline to designed scenario, making increase in phosphorus inputs an unlikely cause of increased phosphorus in simulation. The cells that did increase in estimated attached phosphorus but decreased in actual phosphorus inputs had an increase in the amount of hay within each rotation. The cells that increased in phosphorus inputs in the designed scenario also had rotations that switched from having more hay years in the rotation to having less. There is also an increase in the amount of corn and soy years within rotations in these cells. This suggests that there is a correlation between canopy cover and the estimated loss of attached phosphorus and the amount of canopy cover played a role in the amount of erosion that occurred, which directly affects the estimated amount of attached phosphorus in runoff. Estimated dissolved phosphorus yield was higher in the designed scenario than the baseline scenario. It increased from 3.04 kg/ha/yr to 3.17 kg/ha/yr amassing to an increase of 4.28%. Dissolved phosphorus moves through the landscape via surface runoff and tile drains. AnnAGNPS does not differentiate between subsurface and surface pollutants (Bingner, Yuan, Theurer, Rebich, & Moore, 2005) so it is not possible to determine if the increase in dissolved phosphorus is coming from surface or subsurface sources. However, dissolved phosphorus moves differently through the landscape than attached, which is dependent on clay particle attachment and dislodgement. Dissolved phosphorus is unlikely to concentrate in subsurface drainage compared to surface runoff because of the molecular structure of the nutrient, which is highly reactive to soil elements and is typically immobilized in the soil (Retallack, 2001). Subsurface runoff via tile drain was estimated as a decrease within the simulation making the increase in dissolved phosphorus less likely to be originating from tile drains. Estimated subsurface drainage water yield in the designed scenario decreased overall in the designed simulation by 15.11%. This coupled with how phosphorus moves slowly through the soil profile (Retallack, 2001) make subsurface drainage not likely to be responsible for all of the dissolved phosphorus output. However, there was still water being exported through the drainage tiles. Physical characteristics of the landscape and rotational management can affect the amount of dissolved phosphorus moving through the soil profile and into tile drains. Soil texture characteristics have been shown to have great influence on the amount of phosphorus lost through the soil (Sims, Simard, & 73 Joern, 1998). Sims et al (1998) identified that coarser soil texture that has high sand, organic matter and high amounts of macropores are more susceptible to loss of phosphorus. Analyzing the study watershed’s soil texture, coarser soils were not the only soil texture that showed increases in dissolved phosphorus. Loam soils had a high number of increases while coarse soils such as sandy loams, gravely loams and fine sandy loams had less cells increase in phosphorus output. This indicates that soil texture did not play an integral role in the output of dissolved phosphorus and indicates that other factors are more likely to contribute to the higher rates of dissolved phosphorus outputs. When reconfiguration occurred, rotations high in phosphorus inputs, yet low in nitrogen rank would have been switched to these locations. This is a consequence of not directly including phosphorus within the design rules. As you can see from figure 5.1 several of the fields that were relocated adjacent to streams and headwaters would be at risk for phosphorus leaching due to the soil texture. Analysing the designed scenario output values for cells that showed increases in dissolved phosphorus resulted in no correlation to soil texture and higher transport of dissolved phosphorus. However, there was a correlation between coarse soil and the type of rotation on them. Surface runoff increased from the baseline to designed scenario by 3.72%. This increase could partially explain the increase in dissolved phosphorus estimates by AnnAGNPS. As stated earlier, conservation tillage was the selected management operation for the watershed. This means that a minimum of 30% crop residue is left on the fields. Increase in crop residue has been linked to increase in dissolved phosphorus in runoff water (Mathers & Nash, 2009; Michalak, et al., 2013). Studies by McDowell and McGregor (1984), and Tiessen et al (2010) both found higher levels of dissolved phosphorus being exported off of the conservation tillage plots compared to conventional tillage plots. McDowell and McGregor compared no till to conventional tillage management while Tiessen et al (2010) compared reduced tillage with conventional tillage management, both studies maintaining conservation tillage practices of 30% (or more) crop residue. The simulation of the current study used a reduced tillage operation rather than no-till management system. Using past studies as a guide, the presence of crop residues in this study that were not incorporated into the plow layer would have contributed to the increase of dissolved phosphorus as estimated by AnnAGNPS. 74 Conservation management practices leave fields minimally disturbed after fertilizer application as well. Studies that have investigated conservation management practices in comparison with conventional practices have found that with minimal soil mixing during planting and fertilizer applications increases the amount of nutrients at the soil surface layer. Fertilizer applications such as broadcast and surface applications have been documented as increasing the amount of nutrients in runoff water, especially after a large precipitation event right after fertilizer application causing phosphorus to dissolve and become mobile on the soil surface (Carpenter et al., 1998; Douglas et al., 1998; Hansen et al., 2002). The management schedules created for the watershed did use surface application of phosphorus. There was only one crop that received surface application of phosphorus: hay. Crop rotations that were predominantly switched into locations that had rotations that did not work well with the geophysical characteristics of that location and were lower in nitrogen input values, however the amount of hay in them is at least half, or all hay. All of the switched fields were along the stream. The use of surface applied phosphorus and crop residues remaining on the field would both contribute highly to the increase in dissolved phosphorus estimated by AnnAGNPS. 5.3. Sediment Sediment yield from the baseline scenario to the designed scenario decreased. Estimated erosion totals decreased by 7.14% when comparing the baseline to the designed scenario. Individually, all particle types also decreased. Clay decreased the most out of the differentiated particle types with a decrease of 11.11 %. Sand had the next highest decrease of 10% and silt was the smallest decrease of 8.33%. Decreases in soil erosion were somewhat expected through land cover manipulation.However, factors affecting soil erosion were considered with the inclusion of geophysical characteristics such as: long uninterrupted slopes (slope accumulation), K-factors, and curvature. AnnAGNPS uses the revised soil loss equation (RUSLE) to calculate erosion within each AnnAGNPS cell. AnnAGNPS calculates erosion via slope factor (LS), crop/vegetation and management (C), support practice factor (P) for each AnnAGNPS cell and erodibility factor (K) for each soil (Bingner, Theurer, & Yuan, 2011). In the design rules some of these factors were considered. Geophysical features of the landscape were analysed for long continuous slope profiles (LS factor), and soil erodibility (K factor) were mapped for the entire 75 watershed. Crop and vegetation management (C factor) was considered through the analysis of crop rotations and their nitrogen input ranks. P factor was not included because P factors include: contour farming, cross slope farming, strip cropping and terracing. These support practices are not common in the study watershed and were not a topic of this study. Fields within the watershed that had long uninterrupted slopes and/or high erodibility were considered to be areas of concern when analyzing the crop rotations on them and determining if that rotation was appropriate for that location. That was the extent of the inclusion of the RUSLE parameters within the study. The design rules were more nutrient driven than sediment driven, in the sense that high input crops were to be relocated off of these geophysically “vulnerable” locations because of the way that nitrogen and phosphorus are transported in the landscape. Because there was not a direct design change that impacted erosion, there is indication of other process at work that reduced erosion overall. Factors such as crop residue, canopy cover, and root biomass play a role in the reduction of erosion. Crop residue has been documented in the reduction of erosion (Wilson, Dabney, McGregor, & Barkoll, 2004). Conservation tillage, leaving residues of 30% or more on the field, have been promoted as a conservation method for erosion control (Carter, 1994). Residues left on the field intercept the raindrops and decrease soil particle detachment caused by the force of rain drop impact (Cassol & De Lima, 2003). Crop residues have reduced erosion in many studies (Baker and Laflen, 1983; Fawcett et al., 1994; Sharpley et al., 1994). Residues increase surface roughness and slow sheet flow by reducing the force of runoff water and allowing it to spread out due to the roughness of the residue (Cassol & De Lima, 2003). Canopy cover plays a role in erosion reduction as well. The ability of a crop to intercept raindrops and decrease impact force varies, but in general has been proven to reduce erosion (Ma, Yu, Ma, Li, & Wu, 2014). Ma et al (2014) have found that different crop type preform differently when it comes to the reduction of soil erosion via splash detachment. When compared to bare soil, wheat was the most effective at the reduction of splash erosion during normal and high intensities of simulated rain tests, followed by corn and soybean next. Not only is the above ground biomass important to erosion control, below ground root mass also plays a role in the resistance of soils to runoff. 76 Below ground, roots increase soil aggregate stability, infiltration capacity, and bulk density, all factors that are important to soil’s ability to resist transport (Amezketa, 1999; Gyssels, Poesen, Bochet, & Li, 2005). Root mass data taken from the supplied AnnAGNPS files were used for simulation. Analysing the supplied data different crops had varying amounts of root mass within the top 100 mm of the soil profile it is clear that not all crops provide the same amount of root mass. Crop root mass was greatest in three years or more rotations of hay, a combination of alfalfa and brome, with a mass of 4900 kg/ha in years two and later. Alfalfa and oats, present in rotations when a switch from hay production to oat production occurs, was next with a mass of 1600 kg/ha. Barley was next in mass production with 980 kg/ha with corn following close behind at 950 kg/ha. Oats, wheat and soy are at the lower end of the root biomass production with 800 kg/ha, 760 kg/ha, and 400 kg/ha respectively. Rotations fluctuate through the six year rotational sequence. This would also change the root biomass being produced in any given year. From the results presented by Gyssel et al (2005) as root biomass increase erosion decreased. By this logic, rotations that have more years of soy, wheat, and oats than other higher root mass crops within the rotation would be less likely to reduce soil movement than rotations that had more perennial crops such as alfalfa brome mix (hay), barley, and corn. In most cases crop residue, canopy cover and root biomass did play a role in the reduction of erosion. However, it should be noted that cells that increased over 100% did not show correlation with these concepts. Crop rotations that had high above and below ground biomass crops increased in erosion yet also decreased. This may be explained by the development of roots and canopy cover from one period in the growing year to another. The same rotations with the same unchanged parameters as another cell still showed varied results in terms of increases and decreases in erosion. As stated above, crops vary in their ability to intercept rain drops and prevent soil dislodgement and eventual transport. Depending on the type of crop grown before another, crop residues may vary in their ability to shield the soil. Further investigation into the correlation of rotation sequence, crop resides and root biomass would be an interesting study, however the direct effects of crop properties are outside of this study. High increases in some cells that have the same rotations as cells that decreased, indicates that there is another factor. Analysing the erosion data of the cells that increased over 100% soil type and 77 properties of that soil seem to have a correlation with increases. For instance, it is noted that particular soil types always increased when rotations switched from a more annual rotation to a more perennial rotation, indicating that the properties of the crops within the rotation did not inhibit erosion like in other cells with different soil types. This is a point for further investigation outside of this study. To be thorough, it should be noted that cells that increased over 100% have been analysed according to the above points on erosion reduction. Cells that increased over expected values did not show any clear reason as to why they increased so much compared to other cells. Cells with identical baseline rotations and designed scenario rotations increased for one cell and decreased for another. There are other factors that are affecting the amount of sediment being produced but are not directly evident with the output data from AnnAGNPS and geo-physical data. Cells over 100% increase and decrease have been noted as a finding to provide a full perspective of what happened when the baseline scenario was changed to the designed scenario. 5.4. Water Yield Overall water yield increased from the baseline scenario to the designed scenario by 3.35%. Water yield was subdivided into two states by AnnAGNPS, subsurface and surface. Subsurface flow saw a decrease in the estimated yields by 15.11%. Opposite of this, surface runoff estimates increased from the baseline to the designed scenario by 3.72%. It is interesting that the water balance of the watershed changed from one scenario to the other because the amount of crop rotation was closely maintained in the field lottery. Decreases in subsurface drainage seemed to be variable with crop rotations, soil type, and gradient. In general rotations with more crop variability within the sequence seemed to decrease subsurface flow. The increase of perennial cover within rotations did not directly decrease the amount of water flowing into tile drains, as was found in other cells. Cells that had the same switch from one rotation to another that was identical for one cell and another had different results on subsurface flow. For example switching from SWCSWC to HHHHHH produced an increase in one cell and a decrease in another. Soil type among the cells that decreased varied. Soil characteristics, specifically ones that affect 78 moisture movement, play a role in how water infiltrates (Woods, Sivapalan, & Robinson, 1997). This indicates that the soil type plays a role in the amount of infiltration into the soil and infiltrates differently when different crops are on that soil type. Slope ranged from 1.50% to 6.20% and the soil type varied as well. This indicates that geophysical characteristics of the cells played a role in the decease of subsurface runoff. Surface runoff increased when comparing baseline to designed scenario. The increase on a cell to cell basis was expected when changing rotations. Some factors that could contribute to this are crop residue and canopy cover during different climatic events. Crop residue has been documented in the decrease of surface runoff (Baker & Laflen, 1983). The amount of crop residue available for off season soil protection depends on the amount of the above ground biomass (Cantero-Martinez, Peterson, Sherrod, & Westfall, 2006). Available crop residue varies between crops at the conservation tillage minimum of 30%. Residue levels are presented in Table 5.1. As you can see from Table 5.1 there is great variability between crops and their residue that is produced and left. More annual rotations had high producing residue crops such as corn, soy, and wheat, while the more perennial rotations had half of the rotation as hay and the other half as corn, soy, and wheat/small grain would produce fewer residues. Hay does not produce a lot of crop residue that directly cover the soil as it is mostly harvested. Stubble is left on the field but does not cover the soil directly like corn would. The difference in available crop residue for each crop type could explain why cells that changed from a more annual system to a more perennial system increased in surface runoff when comparing the baseline to designed scenario. Table 5.1 Crop residue weight at 30% coverage of land area Crop Type Crop Residue (kg/ha) Hay Oats following Hay yr 1 Barley Corn Soybean Wheat 716.8 1064 1064 1176 672 672 79 Climatic events and rotations sequence would play a role in both subsurface and surface runoff increases and decreases from baseline to designed scenario. Climatic data was kept the same from baseline to designed scenario. Canopy cover varies throughout the growing season leaving the soil uncovered in the spring and winter and covered after crop vegetation maturity. Rotational sequences that were similar in crop components, but started on a different year resulted in varying amounts of increase or decrease. Different events happening a varying time through the year would produce different amounts of runoff. This is due to the development of the crop canopy, the amount of residue left from the previous year and the state of the soil, frozen or thawed, when a climatic event occurred. The lack of cover on the soil in spring and winter would generate more surface runoff than when the canopy if fully closed in, this has been discussed earlier. Rotations that have less residue left on the surface from the previous crop would also decrease in the ability to slow surface runoff during spring thaw and rain events. The frozen or thawed state of the soil also contributes to the type of runoff generated. Frozen soils cannot infiltrate water, turning precipitation into surface runoff during frozen periods. This coupled with the type and amount of residue left on the soil surface from the previous year would vary the amount of water that turns into concentrated flow, and can partially explain why there was an increase in surface runoff from baseline to designed scenario. Certain cells changed more than expected. Table 4.8 outline the cells that increased or decreased over 100% for both types of direct runoff from baseline to designed scenario. The highest increased cells for subsurface runoff changed from pasture to an annual perennial rotation (a mixture of annual and perennial crops within the same rotation). The change of rotation in these cells would change the amount of available crop residue and root mass left on the field and in the soil for the winter months and subsequently change the way that runoff moves across the soil. The change of pasture land to a rotation that has a mix of annuals and perennials changes the way that water fluctuates in the system. A study of the long term changes within the USA investigated the changes of traditionally pasture lands converted to annual systems. It found that the conversion of land from perennial/annual productio to more intensively cultivated rotations increased the amount of runoff that the watershed produced (Schilling, Jha, Zhang, Gassman, & Wolter, 2008). This is similar to the three cells that increased over 1000% for surface runoff (cells: 593, 732, 742). These cells changed from pasture to annual/perennial 80 systems where there was half hay and the other half of the rotation was annual crops. However, this does not explain the other increases above 100% for subsurface runoff. The other increases over 100% for subsurface runoff went from annual systems to annual/perennial systems. Possible explanation of this is that there are more years of perennial cover within the rotation. Alfalfa had been documented in increasing infiltration rates into soil (Meek, Rechel, Carter, De Tar, & Urie, 1992) which is a component in the hay mix used in this simulation. Decreases over 100% did not follow this trend. The cells that decreased by 100% seemed to do so when there was more variability in crop components within the rotation. Soil type and slope of these cells seemed to influence the amount of subsurface runoff. Soil type could be dictating the amount of infiltration because of the architecture of the soil and its natural ability to accept water. As the slope increases so does the speed at which water travels over land. If water has a faster velocity at higher slopes then the reduction of velocity via residues would also decrease in slowing capabilities. The decreases of 100% are not of real concern since the overall goal of the designed scenario was to decrease agricultural pollutants being transported to stream networks. 5.5. Summary of Landscape Reconfiguration Results A landscape analysis was performed on part of the Canagagigue Creek sub watershed to understand the constraints and capabilities of the existing geophysical features. Constraint areas were delineated by identifying areas that were next to headwaters or directly adjacent to streams, had higher slope gradients, long slope lengths, and soils that were considered highly erodible. Capabilities were identified in areas that were away from headwaters and streams, had low slope gradients, interrupted slope lengths, and soils that were less likely to erode. Next, a suitability assessment was conducted on the crop nutrient characteristics throughout the watershed. Crop rotations were graded based on the quantity of nutrient inputs. The geophysical capabilities were overlapped with the suitability assessment, which indicated areas that needed to be addressed in the design process. Rotations that had high inputs and were in areas of constraint were moved to areas marked as capability zones. This design process created the designed scenario that was modeled with AnnAGNPS software to compare to the base scenario. 81 The results from base scenario to designed scenario are higher water quality overall. Total nitrogen decreased by a small amount of 0.14 kg/ha/yr which equates to a 4.70% decrease. Phosphorus saw a slight overall increase of 0.09 kg/ha/yr. This is because dissolved phosphorus actually increased by 6.25% or 0.04 kg/ha/yr. Sediment loading was decreased by 0.03 tonnes/ha/yr, which is a 7.14% decrease from baseline to designed scenario. Water yield had surprising results as the water balance between subsurface and surface drainage occurred. Subsurface, or tile drain discharge decrease by 15.11%, a decrease of 0.34 mm/yr, while surface drainage increase in yield by 4.13 mm/yr, indicating that more runoff is being produced in the designed scenario. The increases and decreases of estimated nutrients, and sediment seem small in the grand scheme of things, however every fluctuation one way or the other compounds as water collects in other sub watersheds and basins and creates large problems or great benefits in rivers and lakes. 82 6.0 Conclusions 6.1. Research Objective The research question and hypothesis for this thesis was derived from examining the current literature and identifying trends in agricultural pollution reduction. Current studies focus on inserting strategies and techniques (e.g., best management practices) into the landscape, removing land from production. There is little to no research that keeps all agricultural land in production while striving for better water quality. This approach, known as “working lands” in agricultural policy uses techniques and strategies to mitigate harmful effects of production. Working lands approaches have not had the same level of success as land retirement programs that remove land from crop production. There are few examples of re-designing the agricultural landscape according to capability and suitability for different agricultural land covers. There is a dearth of studies at a similar scale to this thesis where a sub watershed is redesigned and simulated in totality. 6.2. Implications The design approach used in this thesis takes no land out of production, while designing for better stream health and water quality. This benefits farmers and society who want to take steps to increase water quality, maintain soils, and protect the landscape for future generations. Because this approach does not remove land from production but rather re-configures the existing agricultural land covers, perhaps farmers would be more likely to adopt it, collaborate with each other, and reduce the effect of agriculture on water quality. The approach taken here is not one of land retirement (like the effective CRP in US farm conservation policy), nor is it one of adopting site-specific BMPs to mitigate the negative consequences of cropping in working lands (like adopting measures funded through Environmental Farm Plans in Ontario). Rather this approach is rooted in fundamental landscape analysis of capability and suitability to re-arrange agricultural enterprises while holding areas constant. In the sub-watershed area, the same landscape 83 composition (within reason) can result in improvements in soil retention and water quality through the practice of sound landscape architecture. Within landscape architecture and landscape planning, composition and configuration are often manipulated simultaneously. The results here have shown that modifying configuration can yield better outcomes for soil and water. Compositional changes in any landscape can have marked effects but the effects are hypothesized to be more intense when a design process strategizes the locations of changes to composition (Asbjornsen et al., 2013). For landscapes where the consequences of land cover types and locations are not optimum, it appears that landscape architecture can improve environmental and societal outcomes through intentional, strategic design. This is accomplished through the use of previous research that has investigated outcomes of design components. This report fills a niche of research that was lacking in large scale landscape design and provides a start point for others to develop. Landscape architecture has occasionally focused on fine-scale sites (less than a hectare) but classic landscape architecture and environmental planning engaged with landscapes at a scale similar to the definition supplied by Forman (1995): an area with repeating patterns that is at least kilometres-wide. Working at the sub-watershed scale has many implications for landscape architecture. Landscape architects benefit from working at this scale because it produces better designs by retaining the complexity of ecological processes, while keeping the data to manageable proportions. Reputable quantitative data from other disciplines can be found and used for suitability and capability analysis. Using a quantitative approach to design places landscape architecture among empirical sciences because measurable values are used in the design process to inform, guide, and make decisions. The sub-watershed scale allows empirical data acquired through quantitative analysis to be extrapolated to smaller and larger sites with less error. This is because the complexities of the processes that affect the site are not lost when the scale of the design changes, rather they are just shifted in physical scale. Sub-watershed scale design makes large scale changes to a landscape which can affect many different 84 factors on and off site. Because of this, landscape design needs rigorous scientific research to understand the environmental and social processes relevant to the design task and to be held accountable for their decisions. Empirical data and accountability for design increases public perception of the profession. To increase public perception, a decrease in error at a discipline scale is necessary. To accomplish this, landscape architecture should be placed in the arena of other quantitative fields that have proven their legitimacy and commitment to empirical research, design, and experimentation. The use of quantitative research/design with qualitative links expected results to a hard number rather than to subjective notions. Quantitative research and design can be verified in situ which increases the credibility and therefore the perception of the profession. Research based design and the combination of qualitative and quantitative data throughout the research and design process create better designs. The use of tested design elements that have an empirical value to decrease or increase a factor within the landscape will ensure that there is a positive outcome towards the study goal. Implementation of designs like this may increase when quantitative data and the tenets of Conservation Landscape Planning are used to inform design decisions. When all aspects of a site are at an equal level, both environment and human needs are being addressed equally, the design is more likely to be implemented because there is no priority towards one or the other. Designing in this way is beneficial to the profession because quantitative comparison of environmental and economic factors of the site provides an explanation of design decisions, increasing stakeholder understanding of the design and builds trust in landscape architects. Ongoing testing of design concepts and research, shifting public perception of landscape architecture by using both qualitative and empirical data for evidence based design will help to shift concepts that landscape architects are just designers or gardener, to one of scientific research that aims to increase the contribution to scientific literature and knowledge. Shifting to evidence based landscape architecture through incorporation of quantitative data legitimizes landscape architecture amongst the sciences because it provides quantifiable deliverables. This justifies the knowledge being produced, which increases trust in the legitimacy of the research/design and landscape architecture as a profession. 85 Working at the sub-watershed scale changes the way that landscape architects have to approach design. At a scale that is classic of landscape architecture and landscape planning rigorous research and acquisition of empirical data to inform, support, and guide landscape design are necessary to decreases error, improve design, change the perception of the profession, and legitimizes landscape architecture amongst other recognized quantitative disciplines. Not only does this scale shift the way that design is being approached, it also takes the landscape architect from, “behind the garden wall” (p. 91), as Steiner (2002) criticizes, and shifts public perception of the discipline from extravagant designer back to one of landscape stewardship and environmental planning scale design. 6.3. Study limitations Inherent in all studies, are limitations. Model comprehension and possible error, missed errors, unconsidered variables in the initial design process, and time constraints are all limitations that affected this thesis. This thesis used estimated land management information, which is an innate limitation in the study also. Using an agricultural pollutant model that is hefty in data file demands, is new to the user, and time consuming make it hard to perfect the modeling software. Many files were needed to be created to run the AnnAGNPS software. Three basic file sets were outlined, however each one of those sections had many sub file sets that needed to be developed. AnnAGNPS was developed for American data sets and already existing publically accessible data. Canadian data lacks certain components, and does not structure data files in the same way. This required using multiple sources to compile one file, something that would have been readily available if the study was applied to an American landscape. The requirements of these files were sometimes hard to understand and required additional computations for data acquired from Canadian sources to match unit requirements. Other files do not exist in Canadian data and are solely American concepts such as the RUSLE EI value. It was obtained through dialogue with AnnAGNPS model specialists Ron Bingner. The value was extrapolated from Flint Michigan’s EI value because it and the study area are at similar latitudes and share similar climatic seasons. Because the model was new to the user, there are inherent errors that could have been made 86 such as certain values that determined the contributing source area size for computations. The model itself is continually under revision, as any good modeling software should be, so errors within the models’ script are always a possibility and can be a limitation. During the design process there were errors that were not caught in time to be changed. For example, there was a doubling of rotation CSWHHH within the rotation creation stage with the inclusion of SWHHHC. The ordering of the rotation is different from CSWHHH; however, the overall sequence was the same. This would have weighted the number of fields that received that rotation sequence in the lottery process in the base scenario creation. This would have been carried over into the designed scenario, because the amount of any one rotation was not changed, just moved around in the landscape. Other errors may also have ensued in the design, as human error is unavoidable. Once the study was underway, and the design process was in full swing, a solution to include phosphorus directly in the design rules was conceived. Another variable, such as canopy cover, was something that was not considered, but would have affected erosion in the landscape. Time constraints made changing the design process and rules that were already arranged and being enacted not feasible. In all studies time constraint is a common limitation. If there were no deadlines the study could be tweaked and rerun endlessly. However, within the timeframe allotted, results of the study prove promising for increasing water quality. This thesis uses projected data. It used estimated land management inputs that may be different from actual conditions of the study area. Actual geophysical data were used to describe the watershed but land use and management practices were contrived from combining external sources, not from sources within the watershed itself. Land use and management practices were developed based on literature, common practices in the study area, and randomized assignment of cropping sequences. Using real data collected from farmers in the watershed would have created an authentic representation of the processes and pollutant yields occurring in the study area. Knowing that learning new software and 87 creating the data sets for the simulation would be time consuming, collection of data from farmers on crop rotations and management practices was unrealistic to complete the study in a timely manner. 6.4. Future Study Future study opportunities from this thesis are many. The inclusion of unconsidered variables, changing model parameters, using live data, applying this study to broader scales, and investigating the profit shift of the designed scenario would all be interesting additions to this study. Variables that could be directly included in the design process, for instance phosphorus, and variables that were unconsidered at the beginning of the design process, for example canopy cover, may change the results of the study. It would be interesting to compare the results of this study to one that included phosphorus and canopy cover directly in the design to see if it had the same effect, increase or decrease water quality. Tweaking model parameters, while keeping the variables the same, would also be interesting. Perhaps the change in concentrated source area value would produce finer scale AnnAGNPS cells, which would represent the individual fields in the watershed better. This may change yield amounts within the watershed, which would identify that contributing source area values effect the simulation and that they need to be considered closely when using the AnnAGNPS model. Simulating the watershed using collected data from land owners within the study area would model existing conditions and produce figures that could inform landscape conservation planning in the area. This study shows that the reconfiguration of theoretical management data reduced agricultural pollutants exported from the watershed. Using AnnAGNPS with collected data would influence implementation and policy in the watershed. Taking the physical scale of the study one step back and trying to apply the concept to a single farm may be useful. If collaborating with other farmers is too farfetched, perhaps if it can be done within one farms’ boundary it would be more implementable. It would also prove to be an interesting comparison between a watershed scale design and a farm scale design to see how pollutants are reduced. Going one step further in physical scale, taking this sub-watershed scale study and applying it to the entire sub watershed of Canagagigue Creek, the Grand River Basin and even the entire Lake Erie Basin would 88 examine the compounded effects of every watershed within the boundary. This could have implications of basin scale design to improve water quality. Further, the use of the developed conceptual frame work to investigate profits of each farm in a watershed scale plan and identify types of policy that could make this concept an implementable reality would be interesting for planners and policy makers. If farms did not make the same amount of profits from the designed scenario because different crop are sold at different rates, perhaps watershed agreements of profit sharing could be developed to ensure that all the farmers are receiving a fair share of the profits. This would also reduce the draw backs of shifting crop rotations to improve water quality and perhaps make it more implementable by farmers. Given that re-configuring land cover types within a landscape can lead to improvements in modeled environmental outcomes, other landscape types might likewise be examined for opportunities for better landscape planning. In many urban areas, for example, river floodplains are common sites for recreational (sports) fields and surface parking. With close proximity to surface waters and known contaminants associated with fertilizers, automotive fluids, and de-icing salts, re-configuration of urban landscapes might usefully be examined for implications of designed patterns of land use. Using the concepts within this study and applying them to other types of landscape would prove to be interesting. For instance, reconfiguration of human settlement, keeping the composition the same, using geophysical characteristics to inform their location within the watershed boundaries could have beneficial water quality results. The use of iterative modelling, testing designed reconfigurations to determine which meets the targeted reductions of pollutants. This could inform the planning of future residential development, mitigating the impact of humans on the natural landscape. The designed scenario presented for this thesis is only one iteration of many. Configuration and composition could have been done differently. Due to time constraints, the possibility of other designs and the process of iterative design and modeling were not possible. Future work could tweak different components of the design framework, such as: parcels included in reconfiguration, changing the priority of geophysical and management factors that indicate ill-suited land use, the use of continuous living 89 cover strategically throughout the watershed and the addition of other variables that were not considered. The data produced could further the understanding of how certain factors affect the transport pollutants and where strategic targeting could be most effective. 6.5. Conclusion This study conceptualized a new approach to agricultural landscape planning and conservation to decrease pollution-loading streams. 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