Click Here WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, VOL. 45, W05429, doi:10.1029/2008WR007042, 2009 for Full Article Modeling snow accumulation and ablation processes in forested environments Konstantinos M. Andreadis,1 Pascal Storck,2 and Dennis P. Lettenmaier1 Received 28 March 2008; revised 18 February 2009; accepted 19 March 2009; published 30 May 2009. [1] The effects of forest canopies on snow accumulation and ablation processes can be very important for the hydrology of midlatitude and high-latitude areas. A mass and energy balance model for snow accumulation and ablation processes in forested environments was developed utilizing extensive measurements of snow interception and release in a maritime mountainous site in Oregon. The model was evaluated using 2 years of weighing lysimeter data and was able to reproduce the snow water equivalent (SWE) evolution throughout winters both beneath the canopy and in the nearby clearing, with correlations to observations ranging from 0.81 to 0.99. Additionally, the model was evaluated using measurements from a Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) field site in Canada to test the robustness of the canopy snow interception algorithm in a much different climate. Simulated SWE was relatively close to the observations for the forested sites, with discrepancies evident in some cases. Although the model formulation appeared robust for both types of climates, sensitivity to parameters such as snow roughness length and maximum interception capacity suggested the magnitude of improvements of SWE simulations that might be achieved by calibration. Citation: Andreadis, K. M., P. Storck, and D. P. Lettenmaier (2009), Modeling snow accumulation and ablation processes in forested environments, Water Resour. Res., 45, W05429, doi:10.1029/2008WR007042. 1. Introduction [2] Snow is an important part of the hydrologic cycle, especially in high-latitude and high-elevation river basins. The contrast between snow presence and absence strongly affects the surface energy (e.g., albedo) and water (e.g., storage and streamflow) balances. Where forest cover is present, it alters snow accumulation and ablation processes, mostly by intercepting snowfall and modifying the surface micrometeorology (incoming radiation and wind speed), respectively. Intercepted snow can account for as much as 60% of annual snowfall in both boreal and maritime forests [Storck et al., 2002], while losses to sublimation can reach 30– 40% of annual snowfall in coniferous canopies [Pomeroy and Schmidt, 1993]. [3] Although the importance of snow interception and sublimation processes has been recognized, their incorporation in hydrologic models as well as their representation in land surface schemes used in numerical weather and climate prediction models has been limited [Pomeroy et al., 1998; Essery, 1998]. While a number of studies have examined snow interception processes in boreal forests [Claassen and Downey, 1995; Harding and Pomeroy, 1996; Hedstrom and Pomeroy, 1998; Nakai et al., 1999; Pomeroy et al., 2002; Gusev and Nasonova, 2003], few of these studies are applicable to maritime climates. Snow interception can be quite different in maritime and continental climates, mostly because of the dominance of micrometeorology over canopy 1 Wilson Ceramic Laboratory, Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA. 2 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group, Inc., Seattle, Washington, USA. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union. 0043-1397/09/2008WR007042$09.00 morphology in controlling snow interception [Satterlund and Haupt, 1970; Schmidt and Gluns, 1991]. [4] Miller [1964] hypothesized that three factors control snow interception: canopy morphology, air temperature and wind speed. Simple interception models were developed for individual snow storms by Satterlund and Haupt [1967], which demonstrated the different mechanisms controlling rain and snow interception. Schmidt and Gluns [1991] found low interception efficiency for light and heavy snow loadings on the canopy, with an increase in interception efficiency as snowfall increases because of cohesion of snow particles to intercepted snow and increased effective projected area of the canopy. In contrast, Calder [1990] and Harestad and Bunnell [1981] found a decrease in interception efficiency as snowfall increased. The contrast in the magnitude of observed snow interception between maritime and continental climates suggests the importance of micrometeorological conditions [Bunnell et al., 1985]. Schmidt and Gluns [1991] found that snow interception was relatively similar between three branch species at two sites, while Satterlund and Haupt [1970] found that there was no significant differences in the amount of snow intercepted by two tree species which had considerable morphological differences. The effects of air temperature on snow interception were found to be more pronounced as the canopy collection area became narrower with minimum interception at low air temperatures [Ohta et al., 1993]. [5] Intercepted snow can be removed from the canopy by sublimation, mass release, or meltwater drip. Sublimation from intercepted snow has been studied using tree weighing [Schmidt, 1991; Lundberg, 1993; Montesi et al., 2004] and eddy covariance [Molotch et al., 2007], or both [Suzuki and Nakai, 2008] measurement techniques. Lundberg and W05429 1 of 13 W05429 ANDREADIS ET AL.: VIC SNOW MODEL Halldin [2001] found sublimation rates from intercepted snow reaching 1.3– 3.9 mm/d. High rates of sublimation from snow intercepted by forest canopies can be sustained by both net radiation and sensible heat flux, and can be well predicted by a simple energy balance model if the canopy aerodynamic resistance is adjusted for the presence of snow cover. Mass release of intercepted snow occurs because of either mechanical wind effects or melt. Both of these mechanisms are governed by the adhesion of intercepted snow to the tree branches. As the adhesion becomes stronger (i.e., during snowfall or at temperatures just below freezing) removal of snow due to wind becomes rare. On the other hand, as intercepted snowmelts it destroys the bonds between the snow and the canopy facilitating mass release. Meltwater drip was measured by Kittredge [1953] over a period of 5 years in the Sierra Nevada; during 57 snowfalls only 4 produced more than 2 mm of meltwater drip, with an average of 0.8 mm out of an average total snowfall of 40 mm. [6] In recent years some land surface models have incorporated snow interception algorithms [Tribbeck et al., 2004; Gusev and Nasonova, 2003] but most have focused on either alpine or boreal forest environments. Verseghy et al. [1993] and Bartlett et al. [2006] developed a new snow interception algorithm for the Canadian Land Surface Scheme which controlled the interception efficiency by canopy morphology, with a maximum threshold. Hedstrom and Pomeroy [1998] developed an interception/unloading model by assuming an exponential decay with increasing snowfall, with a similar approach taken by Koivusalo and Kokkonen [2002], as well as Gelfan et al. [2004], who evaluated their model in both Canadian and Russian sites and suggested that atmospheric processes might be governing snow accumulation and ablation rather than canopy characteristics. A model of canopy snow interception, sublimation and melt was incorporated into a GCM land scheme by Essery et al. [2003], which they found improved its performance in off-line simulations. A similar model was developed by Niu and Yang [2004] to represent the effects of canopies on the surface snow mass and energy balance, which they found improved the estimation of snow albedo. A number of snow interception models describe the maximum interception capacity of the canopy as a function of the leaf area index (LAI) [Stahli and Gustafsson, 2006; Lehning et al., 2006; Strasser et al., 2007] and are based on the approach taken by Pomeroy et al. [1998]. [7] In this paper our objective is to describe a model of snowpack dynamics in forested environments based on observations of snow accumulation and ablation at a mountain maritime site [Storck et al., 2002] and to demonstrate its applicability to both maritime and boreal forested environments. The model is evaluated with observations of snow water equivalent and depth from sites in both maritime and boreal climates. These observations are described in section 2, while the model governing equations and validation results are presented in sections 3 and 4, respectively. Finally, section 5 shows results from a sensitivity analysis of simulated snow accumulation and ablation to different model formulations and parameters. 2. Study Sites and Measurements [8] The observations sites are in the Umpqua National Forest, OR where observations were made by the second W05429 author during the winters of 1996 – 1997 and 1997 – 1998 [Storck et al., 2002], and three sites in the boreal forest of Sasketchewan (first two sites) and Manitoba (second site), respectively. Observations at the boreal forest sites were taken as part of the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) conducted from 1993 to 1996 [Sellers et al., 1997]. 2.1. Umpqua, Oregon [9] During the winters of 1996 –1997 and 1997– 1998 a field study was conducted in the Umpqua National Forest, Oregon. The field campaign was part of the Demonstration of Ecosystem Management Options (DEMO) experiment [Aubry et al., 1999]. The objective of observations made at the Umpqua National Forest field site was to observe the processes governing snow interception by forest canopies and beneath-canopy snow accumulation and ablation in a mountainous maritime climate, with the ultimate aim of understanding the role of rain-on-snowmelt processes on flooding [Storck et al., 2002]. Annual precipitation at the field site is about 2 m, most of it in winter, with an annual maximum snow water equivalent (SWE) of about 350 mm in clearings, with precipitation in the observation years being about half (1 and 0.7 m, respectively) and peak snow water equivalent (SWE) being 340 and 225 mm, respectively. Midwinter melt is common and final melt occurs in late April or early May. Frequent rain-on-snow events occur at this site throughout the winter, while spring melt is radiation dominated. [10] Four weighing lysimeters were used to measure ground snowpack accumulation and melt, two of which were beneath a mature canopy (mostly Douglas fir), and the other two in clear-cut and shelterwood (partially harvested) sites, respectively. The sites were all located within 3 km of each other with no significant differences in topography. Differences in SWE between lysimeters beneath the forest canopy and the adjacent clearing were used to infer snow interception. Additional measurements included precipitation (taken using two tipping bucket gauges), wind speed, incoming shortwave and longwave radiation, air temperature, and relative humidity at 2 m above the soil surface. The field observations are described in detail by Storck et al. [2002]. 2.2. BOREAS [11] The objective of the BOREAS field program, conducted between 1994 and 1996, was to improve the understanding of the dynamics that govern mass and energy transfer between the boreal forest and the lower atmosphere [Sellers et al., 1995]. The BOREAS study region covered most of Saskatchewan and Manitoba, with individual measurement sites located within the northern and southern study areas (NSA and SSA, respectively) [Sellers et al., 1997], each of which is of area roughly 104 km2, separated by about 500 km. Topographic relief is small in both sites, but land cover is nonuniform within each study area and contains open areas and forests of different canopy types. Meteorological measurements, including below and above canopy air temperature, incoming shortwave and longwave radiation, relative humidity, wind speed, precipitation were taken by automated meteorological stations (AMS) [Osborne et al., 1998] every 15 min. Additionally, the AMSs recorded snow depth and canopy temperature at the same temporal 2 of 13 ANDREADIS ET AL.: VIC SNOW MODEL W05429 W05429 Figure 1. Schematic of snow accumulation and ablation processes modeled by VIC. resolution, while biweekly manual snow depth and water equivalent measurements were taken beneath a range of canopy types during the same period. Two sites in the SSA and two in the NSA were selected for this study; these sites were covered mostly with mature jack pine (SSA-OJP and NSA-OJP), aspen (SSA-OA), and mixed spruce/poplar (NSA-YTH) trees. 3. Model Formulation [12] Model formulation of the canopy interception processes relies heavily on field measurements described by Storck et al. [2002]. The main processes represented in the model are shown schematically in Figure 1. The snow processes model has been incorporated into the macroscale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, which essentially solves an energy and mass balance over a gridded domain [Liang et al., 1994]. The spatial resolution for macroscale models usually ranges from 10 to 100 km (grid spacing), which are larger than characteristic scales of the modeled processes. Therefore, subgrid variability in topography, land cover and precipitation is modeled by a mosaic-type representation, wherein each grid cell is partitioned into elevation bands each of which contain a number of land cover tiles. The snow model is then applied to each land cover/elevation tile separately, and the simulated energy and mass fluxes and state variables for each grid cell are calculated as the area averages of the tiles. Downward energy and moisture fluxes are required to drive the model, these include precipitation, air temperature, wind speed, downward shortwave and longwave radiation, and humidity. Alternatively, the last three terms can be estimated from the maximum and minimum daily air temperature and precipitation according to algorithms described by Thornton and Running [1999] and Kimball et al. [1997], respectively. snowpack similarly to other cold land processes models [Anderson, 1976; Wigmosta et al., 1994; Tarboton et al., 1995]. Energy exchange between the atmosphere, forest canopy and snowpack occurs only with the surface layer. The energy balance of the surface layer is rw cs dWTs ¼ Qr þ Qs þ Qe þ Qp þ Qm dt ð1Þ where cs is the specific heat of ice, rw is the density of water, W is the water equivalent and Ts is the temperature of the surface layer, Qr is the net radiation flux, Qs is the sensible heat flux, Qe is the latent heat flux, Qp is the energy flux advected to the snowpack by rain or snow, and Qm is the energy flux given to the pack because of liquid water refreezing or removed from the pack during melt. Equation (1) is solved via a forward finite difference scheme over the model time step (Dt). [14] Net radiation at the snow surface is either measured or calculated given incoming shortwave and longwave radiation as Qr ¼ Li þ Si ð1 aÞ sTs4 ð2Þ where Li and Si are incoming long and shortwave radiation, and a is the snow surface albedo. The flux of sensible heat to the snowpack is given by Qs ¼ rcp ðTa Ts Þ ra;s ð3Þ where r is the air density, cp is the specific heat of air, Ta is the air temperature, and ra,s is the aerodynamic resistance between the snow surface and the near-surface reference height, given by 3.1. Ground Snowpack Accumulation and Ablation [13] The model represents the snowpack as a two-layer medium (a thin surface, and a thick deeper layer), and solves an energy and mass balance for the ground surface 3 of 13 ln ra;s ¼ z ds z0 k 2 Uz 2 ð4Þ ANDREADIS ET AL.: VIC SNOW MODEL W05429 where k is von Karman’s constant, z0 is the snow surface roughness, ds is the snow depth, and Uz is the wind speed at the near-surface reference height z. Similarly, the flux of latent heat to the snow surface is given by Qe ¼ li r 0:622 eðTa Þ es ðTs Þ Pa ra;s ð5Þ where li is the latent heat of vaporization when liquid water is present in the surface layer and the latent heat of sublimation in the absence of it, Pa is the atmospheric pressure, and e and es are the vapor and saturation vapor pressure, respectively. Advected energy to the snowpack via rain or snow is given by Pr þ Ps Qp ¼ rw cw Ta Dt temperature of the pack layer is below freezing then liquid water transferred from the surface layer can refreeze. Liquid water remaining in the pack above its holding capacity is immediately routed to the soil as snowpack outflow. The dynamics of liquid water routing through the snowpack are not considered in this model because of the relatively coarse temporal and spatial resolutions of the model (typically 1 to 3 h and 50 – 100 km2, respectively) [Lundquist and Dettinger, 2005]. [15] Following a similar approach to Anderson [1976], compaction (due to snow densification) is calculated as the sum of two fractional compaction rates representing compaction due to metamorphism and overburden, respectively: Drs ¼ ðCRm þ CRo Þrs Dt ð6Þ where cw is the specific heat of water, Pr is the depth of rainfall, and Ps is the water equivalent of snowfall. Precipitation is partitioned into snowfall and rainfall on the basis of a temperature threshold W05429 ð11Þ where rs is the snow density, and CRm, CRo are the compaction rates due to metamorphism and overburden, respectively. Destructive metamorphism is important for newer snow, and the following empirical function is used: CRm ¼ 2:778 106 c3 c4 e0:04ð273:15Ts Þ Ps ¼ P Ta Tmin Tmax Ta Ps ¼ P Tmax Tmin Tmin < Ta < Tmax Ps ¼ 0 c3 ¼ c4 ¼ 1 Qnet < 0 Qnet 0 ð9Þ Qe Qm Dt rw lv rw lf Qe Qm Dt þ rw ls rw lf ð10Þ where Qe exchanges water with the liquid phase if liquid water is present and Qe exchanges water with the ice phase in the absence of liquid water. If Wice exceeds the maximum thickness of the surface layer (typically taken as 0.10 m of SWE), then the excess, along with its cold content, is distributed to the deeper (pack) layer. Similarly, if Wliq exceeds the liquid water holding capacity of the surface layer, the excess is drained to the pack layer. If the Ps c5 ð273:15Ts Þ c6 rs e e h0 ð13Þ where h0 = 3.6 106 N s/m2 is the viscosity coefficient at 0°C, c5 = 0.08 K1, c6 = 0.021 m3/kg, and Ps is the load pressure. Snowpacks are naturally layered media, therefore the load pressure is different for each layer of the pack corresponding to different compaction rates. The model represents that ‘‘internal’’ compaction as an effective load pressure, i.e., Ps ¼ DWice ¼ Ps þ rl > 0 CRo ¼ The mass balance of the surface layer is given by DWliq ¼ Pr þ ð12Þ where Ts is the snowpack temperature, and rl is the bulk density of the liquid water in the pack. After the initial settling stage, the densification rate is controlled by the overburden snow, and the corresponding compaction rate can be estimated by ð8Þ If Qnet is negative, then energy is being lost by the pack, and liquid water (if present) is refrozen. If Qnet is sufficiently negative to refreeze all liquid water, then the pack may cool. If Qnet is positive, then the excess energy available after the cold content has been satisfied, produces snowmelt: rs > 150 kg=m3 c4 ¼ 2 The total energy available for refreezing liquid water or melting the snowpack over a given time step depends on the net energy exchange at the snow surface Qm Dt ¼ min Qnet ; rw lf Wliq Qm Dt ¼ Qnet þ cs Wice Tst c3 ¼ e0:046ðrs 150Þ ð7Þ Ta Tmax Qnet ¼ Qr þ Qs þ Qe þ Qp Dt rl ¼ 0; rs 150 km=m3 1 g rw ðWns þ f Ws Þ 2 ð14Þ where g is the acceleration of gravity, Wns, Ws is the amount of newly fallen snow and snow on the ground (in water equivalent units), respectively, and f is the internal compaction rate coefficient taken as 0.6 after calibration to measurements from the Cold Land Processes Experiment in Fraser Park, Colorado [Andreadis et al., 2008]. [16] Snow albedo is assumed to decay with age on the basis of observations from the DEMO experiment: 0:58 aa ¼ 0:85 lta 0:46 am ¼ 0:85 ltm ð15Þ ð16Þ where aa, am are the albedo during the accumulation and melting seasons, t is the time since the last snowfall (in 4 of 13 ANDREADIS ET AL.: VIC SNOW MODEL W05429 days), la = 0.92, and lm = 0.70. Accumulation and melt seasons are defined on the basis of the absence and presence of liquid water in the snow surface layer, respectively. 3.2. Atmospheric Stability [ 17 ] The calculation of turbulent energy exchange (equations (3), (4), (5)) is complicated by the stability of the atmospheric boundary layer. During snowmelt, the atmosphere immediately above the snow surface is typically warmer. As parcels of cooler air near the snow surface are transported upward by turbulent eddies they tend to sink back toward the surface and turbulent exchange is suppressed. In the presence of a snow cover, aerodynamic resistance is typically corrected for atmospheric stability according to the bulk Richardson’s number (Rib). The latter is a dimensionless ratio relating the buoyant and mechanical forces (i.e., turbulent eddies) acting on a parcel of air [Anderson, 1976]: Rib ¼ gzðTa Ts Þ 0:5ðTa þ Ts ÞU ð zÞ2 ð17Þ W05429 The Y functions are given for stable conditions (za/L > 0) as z za a ¼ 5 ; Y L L z a ¼ 5; Y L ras Rib 1 Ricr 0 Rib < Ricr 2 Riu ¼ ð18Þ ras ð1 16Rib Þ 0:5 Rib < 0 u3 r * H kg Ta cp 1 ð20Þ 1 za þ5 ln z0 uk z z Y ln z0 L Rib Ricr 2 ra ð23Þ ð24Þ 1 ras ¼ 1 Riu Ricr 0 Rib Riu ð25Þ Rib > Riu ð26Þ 2 ra 3.3. Snow Interception [19] While many models characterize the effect of the forest canopy on the micrometeorology above the forest snowpack, almost none attempt to model explicitly the combined canopy processes that govern snow interception, sublimation, mass release, and melt from the forest canopy. A simple snow interception algorithm is presented here that represents canopy interception, snowmelt, and mass release at the spatial scales of distributed hydrology models. [20] During each time step, snowfall is intercepted by the overstory up to the maximum interception storage capacity according to I ¼ fPs The friction velocity (u*) and the sensible heat flux (H) are given by u* ¼ 1 ras ¼ ð19Þ where Ricr is the critical value of the Richardson’s number (commonly taken as 0.2). While the bulk Richardson’s number correction has the advantage of being straightforward to calculate on the basis of observations at only one level above the snow surface, previous investigators have noted that its use results in no turbulent exchange under common melt conditions and leads to an underestimation of the latent and sensible heat fluxes to the snowpack [e.g., Jordan, 1991; Tarboton et al., 1995]. [18] An alternative formulation for the stability correction (adopted by Marks et al. [1998]) is based on flux profile relationships in which the vertical near-surface profiles of wind and potential temperature are assumed to be log linear under stable conditions [Webb, 1970]. In this case, the effect of atmospheric stability is described by the Monin-Obukhov mixing length (L): L¼ za >1 L where Riu is the upper limit on Rib. Consequently, the stability correction with the bulk Richardson’s number becomes and in unstable conditions as ras ¼ za 1 L The stability correction (equations (20) – (23)) does not force the sensible heat flux to zero. Unfortunately solution of these equations requires an iterative procedure which is computationally too burdensome for a large-scale, spatially distributed model. Therefore, a Rib formulation that does not entirely suppress turbulent exchange under stable conditions was developed. Similar to the limit on Y imposed by equation (23), an upper limit can be placed on Rib at which z/L is equal to unity. Combining equations (20) – (22) into one expression for L yields the following expression for the bulk Richardson’s number when z/L is equal to 1: with the correction for stable conditions given as ras ¼ 0 ð21Þ where I is the water equivalent of snow intercepted during a time step, Ps is the snowfall over the time step, and f is the efficiency of snow interception (taken as 0.6) [Storck et al., 2002]. The maximum interception capacity is given by B ¼ Lr mð LAI Þ ðTa Ts Þku* rcp H¼ z za a Y ln z0 L ð22Þ ð27Þ ð28Þ where LAI is the single-sided leaf area index of the canopy and m (same units as B, in meters) is determined on the 5 of 13 ANDREADIS ET AL.: VIC SNOW MODEL W05429 basis of observations of maximum snow interception capacity. The leaf area ratio Lr is a step function of temperature: Lr ¼ 4:0 Ta > 1 C Lr ¼ 1:5 Ta þ 5:5 1 C Ta < 3 C Lr ¼ 1:0 Ta 3 C ð29Þ which is based on observations from previous studies of intercepted snow as well as data collected during the field campaign described [Storck et al., 2002]. Kobayashi [1987] observed that maximum snow interception loads on narrow surfaces decreased rapidly as air temperature decreases below 3°C. Results from Kobayashi [1987] and Pfister and Schneebeli [1999] suggest that interception efficiency decreases abruptly for temperatures less than 1°C, and is approximately constant for temperatures less than 3°C, leading to a discontinuous relationship (equation (29)). [21] Newly intercepted rain is calculated with respect to the water holding capacity of the intercepted snow (Wc), which is given by the sum of capacity of the snow and the bare branches: Wc ¼ hWice þ e4 ð LAI2 Þ ð30Þ where h is the water holding capacity of snow (taken approximately as 3.5%) and LAI2 is the all sided leaf area index of the canopy. Excess rain becomes throughfall. [22] The intercepted snowpack can contain both ice and liquid water. The mass balance for each phase is DWice Qe Qm Dt ¼I M þ þ rw ls rw lf DWliq ¼ Pr Ptf þ Qe Qm Dt rw lv rw lf ð31Þ ð32Þ where M is the snow mass release from the canopy, Ptf is canopy throughfall, and ls, lv, lf are the latent heat of sublimation, vaporization, and fusion, respectively. Snowmelt is calculated directly from a modified energy balance, similar to that applied for the ground snowpack, with canopy temperature being computed by iteratively solving the intercepted snow energy balance (equation (1)). Given the intercepted snow temperature and air temperature, snowmelt is calculated directly from equations (8) and (9). The individual terms of the energy balance are as described for the ground snowpack model. However, the aerodynamic resistance is calculated with respect to the sum of the displacement and roughness lengths of the canopy. Incoming shortwave and longwave radiation are taken as the values at the canopy reference height. The same formulation is used for the albedo of the ground snowpack and the snow on the canopy (equations (15) – (16)), the difference being in the transmitted radiative fluxes. [23] Snowmelt in excess of the liquid water holding capacity of the snow results in meltwater drip (D). Mass release of snow from the canopy occurs if sufficient snow is available and is related linearly to the production of meltwater drip M ¼0 Cn ð33Þ M ¼ 0:4D C>n W05429 where n is the residual intercepted snow that can only be melted (or sublimated) off the canopy (taken as 5 mm on the basis of observations of residual intercepted load). The ratio of 0.4 in equation (33) is derived from observations of the ratio of mass release to meltwater drip [Storck et al., 2002]. 4. Model Evaluation [24] The measurements that were used for model evaluation spanned two winters at both the Oregon (1997 and 1998) and the BOREAS (1995 and 1996) sites. The model was uncalibrated and used a set of default parameters [Cherkauer et al., 2003]. This allowed testing of the robustness of the model given the difference between the climates at the two study areas (maritime versus boreal). 4.1. Umpqua, Oregon 4.1.1. Implementation [25] Hourly micrometeorological observations from the shelterwood site were used to force the model during its evaluation. These included observations of precipitation, air temperature, incoming shortwave and longwave radiation, wind speed, relative humidity, and were taken to be representative of above-canopy conditions. Wind speed at the 2 m height was corrected for snow accumulation beneath the anemometer and then scaled to the 80 m canopy height assuming a logarithmic profile and a surface roughness of 1 cm. [26] The effective fractional canopy coverage was determined as 80% on the basis of observed longwave radiation beneath the forest canopy. Air temperature and humidity were assumed identical at the shelterwood and beneathcanopy sites. Canopy characteristics were taken from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (N-LDAS) data set [Gutman and Ignatov, 1998; Hansen et al., 2000], for the forest type at the site (Douglas Fir), with canopy heights taken as 11 m [Storck et al., 2002], vegetation roughness length as 1.5 m, displacement height as 8.0 m, and LAI ranging from 3.4 to 4.4. 4.1.2. Evaluation (1996 – 1998) [27] The model was evaluated using the shelterwood and beneath-canopy weighing lysimeter data for the 1996 – 1997 and 1997– 1998 winter seasons. A set of default model parameters was used, including snow roughness length (set here at 1 mm), and the value of m (equation (28)), which controls the maximum snow interception capacity as a function of LAI (set at 5 mm). These could have been used for calibration purposes, in addition to the air temperature thresholds when rain or snow can fall (minimum and maximum, respectively), which were set to 0.5°C and 0.5°C, respectively, as default parameters. Figure 2a (gray lines) shows the measured SWE from the two lysimeters at the beneath-canopy site compared to the model predicted SWE for 1996 – 1997. Although the model slightly underestimates accumulation during December 1996, and predicts too little snowmelt during February and March 1997 leading to an overestimation of SWE, it follows the SWE variability fairly well, and predicts the complete melt of the snowpack fairly accurately. The correlation between the observed and modeled SWE (number of observations is 1770 with a 2 h time step) was 0.90, while the relative mean squared error (RMSE) was 28.3 mm (15.6%). Figure 2b shows the model predicted snow interception (in mm of SWE), with a 6 of 13 W05429 ANDREADIS ET AL.: VIC SNOW MODEL Figure 2. (a) Comparisons between observed (dashed lines) and model-predicted (solid lines) SWE during the 1996 – 1997 period for the shelterwood (black) and beneathcanopy (gray) Oregon sites. (b) Model-predicted intercepted snow water equivalent during the same period. maximum of about 35 mm. According to Storck et al. [2002] snow interception was observed to reach a maximum of about 40 mm, which might explain the small discrepancy between the modeled and observed accumulated SWE during December 1996. Figure 2a (black lines) shows the same comparisons, as above, for the shelterwood site (no canopy). Model predictions show good agreement with the observed SWE. The model underestimates snowmelt in mid-April 1997, but otherwise follows the SWE variability closely throughout the season. Correlation for this site was 0.86 (same number of observations as above), while the RMSE was 54.3 mm (15.9%). [28] Figure 3 is similar to Figure 2, showing SWE simulations during 1997 – 1998 and that the model underestimates snow accumulation during December 1997, but predicts SWE reasonably well until mid-February 1998. The model then underestimates snow accumulation during an early spring snowfall event, possibly due to overestimating intercepted SWE (Figure 3b). Observations show that the snowpack melts almost completely by early April 1998, which the model captures relatively well. The RMSE for the 1997 – 1998 season was 8.6 mm (16.9%), while the correlation coefficient was 0.81. It is interesting to note the difference in snow accumulation between the two winter seasons for the beneath-canopy site (about 150 and less than 50 mm, respectively), while observed intercepted snow loads exceeded 30 mm during the 1996– 1997 season but remained below 20 mm during the 1997 – 1998 winter [Storck et al., 2002]. Figure 3a also shows comparisons between observed and model-predicted SWE at the shelterwood site; the model consistently underpredicts snow accumulation but follows the snow accumulation and ablation pattern closely, and predicts the date of complete melt very accurately, with RMSE and the correlation coefficient being 37.4 mm (15.6%) and 0.99, respectively. W05429 4.2. BOREAS 4.2.1. Implementation [29] Simulations were performed for the period 1 September 1994 to 30 June 1996 at an hourly time step, with meteorological data (precipitation, air temperature, wind speed, incoming shortwave and longwave radiation, and relative humidity) aggregated to the same temporal resolution. Whenever observations were missing, data from the BOREAS Derived Surface Meteorological Data set [Knapp and Newcomer, 1999] which contains interpolated data from several surface observation sites over the NSA and SSA were used. Precipitation and air temperature were similar between the two winters, with relatively colder temperatures in the NSA sites (as low as 40°C), but somewhat higher precipitation in the SSA sites (peak annual precipitation of 14.1 and 16.3 mm/h for SSA versus 11.4 and 7.4 mm/h for NSA). These simulations used the same default parameters as in the Oregon simulations. Comparisons of the simulated snow depth and water equivalent were made beneath the canopy using the snow course measurements, and AMS-measured snow depth from small open areas within different canopy types was also used to evaluate the simulated snow depths. Canopy characteristics were taken from the N-LDAS data set, as in the Oregon case, for the forest type at each site (Jack Pine and Old Aspen, considered as deciduous needleleaf trees), with canopy heights taken as 17 m at SSA-OJP, 22 at SSA9OA, and 13 at NSA-OJP [Link and Marks, 1999], vegetation roughness length as 1.2 m, displacement height as 6.7 m, and LAI ranging from 1.5 to 5.0. 4.2.2. Evaluation (1994 – 1996) [30] Figure 4 shows the continuous snow depth measurements (SWE continuous measurements were not available) from the AMS towers compared with the model-simulated snow depth at four different sites, OJP (Figure 4a) and OA (Figure 4b) at the SSA, and OJP (Figure 4c) and YTH (Figure 4d) at the NSA. The tower measurements have been Figure 3. (a) Comparisons between observed (dashed lines) and model-predicted (solid lines) SWE during the 1997 – 1998 period at the shelterwood (black) and beneathcanopy (gray) Oregon sites. (b) Model-predicted intercepted snow water equivalent during the same period. 7 of 13 W05429 ANDREADIS ET AL.: VIC SNOW MODEL W05429 Figure 4. Measured (gray) and VIC-simulated (black) snow depths at the BOREAS (a) SSA-OJP, (b) SSA-OA, (c) NSA-OJP, and (d) NSA-YTH sites during 1 September 1994 to 30 June 1996. aggregated to hourly to be directly comparable with the model simulations. The model snow depth is very close to the observations at SSA-OJP (Figure 4a), with a correlation coefficient of 0.82 and an RMSE of 10.2 cm (19.2%), and partially captures a large melt event in April 1996. The model underestimates snow depth throughout the winter of 1995 – 1996 at the SSA-OA site (Figure 4b), but performs well during 1994 – 1995. The overall correlation is 0.60 (n = 16,056) with an RMSE of 16.0 cm (23.2%). Despite the differences during the second winter, the model appears to follow the accumulation and melt events closely, which suggests that it might be overestimating snow density leading to an underestimation of snow depth. Results from the NSA-OJP site (Figure 4c) show a relatively good agreement between the model predictions and the observations, although the model overestimates snow depth both during spring 1995 and winter 1996, and delaying the melt onset in spring 1996. The correlation for this site is 0.83 (n = 16,056) and the RMSE is 16.4 cm (20.4%). Figure 4d shows a similar comparison for the NSA-YTH site, where the correlation coefficient was 0.78 (n = 16,056) and the RMSE 21.4 cm (23.1%). The model predicts the dates of melt onset and complete melt relatively well (differences of less than 1 week), but consistently overestimates snow depth over the 1994 – 1995 season and displays a slower melt rate during spring 1996. [31] In addition to the automatic snow depth measurements which were taken in clearings at each site, manual snow depth and water equivalent measurements were taken about every 15 days beneath the dominant canopy type close to each study site, with the exception of NSA-YTH (which is not included in these beneath-canopy comparisons). Figures 5 and 6 show comparisons between the model simulations and snow course measurements for SWE and snow depth, respectively, at selected dates for three sites beneath the canopy. At the SSA-OJP site (jack 8 of 13 W05429 ANDREADIS ET AL.: VIC SNOW MODEL W05429 Figure 5. Measured snow water equivalent (gray circles) from snow courses compared with VICsimulated SWE (black line) at the BOREAS (a) SSA-OJP, (b) SSA-OA, and (c) NSA-OJP sites for the period 1 September 1994 to 30 June 1996. pine), the model overestimates SWE over the entire 1994 – 1995 season with the exception of early to mid-December 1994 and April 1995. During the 1995 – 1996 season the model captures snow accumulation quite well, but overpredicts peak SWE while capturing part of the snowmelt pattern (Figures 5a and 6a) with an overall RMSE of 25.3 mm for SWE and 10.8 cm for depth (correlations of 0.85 and 0.82, respectively). At the SSA-OA site (old aspen), model predictions of SWE follow the observations very closely (Figure 5b) in both seasons (RMSE 9.1 mm and correlation of 0.94), whereas simulated snow depth is consistently smaller than the observed during the 1994 – 1995 season and very close to the observed depth during the 1995– 1996 water year (Figure 6b) with an RMSE of 11.7 cm and correlation of 0.83, suggesting an overestimation of snow density during 1994– 1995. At the NSA-OJP study site (jack pine), the model captures snow accumulation up to midwinter 1995 and the period near the end of melt, but overestimates peak SWE. During 1995– 1996 it overestimates SWE significantly (underestimating interception), although it seems to capture the complete melt of the pack relatively well. This is evident in the RMSE, which is 52.7 mm (correlation of 0.81) for SWE and 11.9 cm (correlation of 0.72) for snow depth, with relatively improved snow depth predictions being an artifact of the underprediction of snow density (Figures 5c and 6c). [32] Observations of solar radiation were made beneath the canopies at the SSA-OA site, with measurements lasting for about 4 days. The radiative flux of shortwave energy reaching the snow surface beneath a forest canopy is very important for the ground snowpack energy balance. Figure 7 compares the model-predicted and observed shortwave radiation reaching the ground surface at the SSA-OA site (aspen) between 4 March 1996 2000 UT and 8 March 1996 1700 UT. Measurements were taken with a 1 min frequency, and were aggregated to hourly for purposes of this comparison. Figure 7 shows the downward shortwave radiation measured at the top of the canopy for reference. The model is able to reproduce the time series of observed solar radiation quite well, with an RMSE of 25.6 W/m2 (5.4%) and a correlation of 0.97 with observations. Although the duration of the measurements is relatively short, the comparison indicates that the model’s simplified approach for predicting shortwave radiation transfer through forest canopies works well, which is also reflected in the SWE comparisons for this study site (Figure 5b). 5. Model Sensitivity [33] Although VIC performed reasonably well in both maritime and boreal sites with default parameters, there were nonetheless some persistent discrepancies in the comparisons of simulated SWE (Oregon) and depth (BOREAS) with 9 of 13 W05429 ANDREADIS ET AL.: VIC SNOW MODEL W05429 Figure 6. Measured snow depth (gray circles) from snow courses compared with VIC-simulated depth (black line) at the BOREAS (a) SSA-OJP, (b) SSA-OA, and (c) NSA-OJP sites for the period 1 September 1994 to 30 June 1996. observations, as noted in section 4. Therefore, the question of the sensitivity of simulated snow mass on model parameters arises. Despite the robustness of the model formulation to capture snow processes in different climates, snow interception capacity as well as snow properties (such as roughness length) can vary. Therefore, a sensitivity analysis of simulated SWE with snow roughness length, maximum interception capacity (LAI multiplier in equation (28)), and atmospheric stability correction was performed. [34] Figure 8 shows observed and simulated beneath canopy SWE for the Oregon (Figures 8a – 8c) and BOREAS (Figures 8d– 8f) sites, with snow roughness length (Figure 8a and 8d) being 0.1 mm, 10 mm and 1 mm (default value); maximum interception capacity varying through the LAI multiplier (Figure 8b and 8e) which was set to 0.005 mm (default value), at 0.005 mm and 0.00005 mm; and using atmospheric stability correction or not (Figure 8c and 8f). Table 1 shows the correlation coefficients for the different simulations at all sites. [35] Snow roughness length has a significant effect at the Oregon site after the initial accumulation of December 1996. The largest impact on the simulated SWE occurs from changing the maximum interception capacity in the model, which can be attributed to the relatively large snow interception observed at the site (up to 40 mm) which was about 10% of the peak SWE in the adjacent clearing. On the other hand, application of the atmospheric stability correction scheme makes a substantial difference, especially after the initial melt event in January 1997. Results for the 1997 – 1998 season are not as pronounced when varying snow roughness length, probably because of the lower snowfall, but high sensitivity to the maximum interception capacity is apparent (Table 1). [36] In contrast, changing snow roughness length had a minimal impact in the colder BOREAS sites (Figure 8d and Table 1), while simulated SWE showed somewhat higher sensitivity to maximum interception capacity, especially for the NSA-OJP site (Figure 8e). The SSA sites did not show much sensitivity to either snow roughness length or maximum interception capacity (Table 1). Similarly, applying Figure 7. Comparison of simulated (solid black line) and observed (gray line) shortwave radiation beneath the canopy, along with the incoming radiation (dashed black line) at the SSA-OA BOREAS site during 4 March 1996 2000 UT and 8 March 1996 1700 UT. 10 of 13 W05429 ANDREADIS ET AL.: VIC SNOW MODEL W05429 Figure 8. Observed and simulated SWE for different model parameterizations: (a) snow roughness length (Oregon site), (b) maximum interception capacity (Oregon site), (c) atmospheric stability correction (Oregon site), (d) snow roughness length (BOREAS NSA-OJP site), (e) maximum interception capacity (BOREAS NSA-OJP site), and (f) atmospheric stability correction (BOREAS NSA-OJP site). the atmospheric stability correction scheme resulted in relatively smaller differences in simulated snow mass (Figure 8f and Table 1) as compared with the maritime Oregon site. The atmospheric stability correction is primarily used for calculating turbulent heat fluxes in the model, and its effect can be assessed by comparing simulated sensible and latent heat fluxes with measurements that were made in the SSAOA BOREAS site. These above-canopy measurements were obtained from a tower using the eddy correlation method, and also included measurements of carbon dioxide, radiative fluxes as well as meteorological parameters. Measurements were taken between 20 April and 31 December 1996, so we can compare with the second half of the winter 1996 simulations. Application of the stability correction algorithms led to a modest improvement in the RMSE of estimating latent (62.2 versus 67.4 W/m2 for the uncorrected) and sensible (75.8 versus 77.4 W/m2 for the uncorrected) heat fluxes, although these changes did have an effect on the simulated SWE (Figure 8f). 6. Summary [37] A mass and energy balance model for snow accumulation and ablation processes in forested environments 11 of 13 ANDREADIS ET AL.: VIC SNOW MODEL W05429 W05429 Table 1. Correlation Coefficients of Simulated SWE for Different Model Parameterizations at the Forested Oregon and BOREAS Sites Oregon, 1996 – 1997 Oregon, 1997 – 1998 SSA-OJP SSA-OA NSA-OJP z = 10 mm z = 0.1 mm m = 0.05 mm m = 0.0005 mm No Stability Correction 0.93 0.79 0.85 0.94 0.80 0.84 0.73 0.86 0.94 0.83 0.86 0.72 0.87 0.92 0.66 0.71 0.85 0.85 0.94 0.81 0.86 0.88 0.74 0.40 0.85 was developed utilizing extensive measurements of snow interception and release in a maritime climate mountainous site in Oregon. The model was able to reproduce the SWE evolution throughout two winters beneath the canopy as well as the nearby clearing, with correlations ranging from 0.81 to 0.99 without any calibration. The model was also evaluated using observations from the BOREAS field campaign in Canada at sites with a much different continental climate with colder, thinner snowpacks. The model was able to predict SWE and snow depth reasonably well at both sites. Although the model formulation appeared suitable for both maritime and boreal climates, the high sensitivity to model parameters such as snow roughness length and maximum interception capacity at the Oregon site suggests that improved simulations may be attained by adjusting those parameters for different climatic conditions. [38] The model is intended primarily for large-scale applications. It has been incorporated as the standard snow scheme within the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, which represents subgrid spatial variability by simulating state and fluxes in land cover/elevation tiles, and also contains modeling components for wind redistribution of snow [Bowling et al., 2004]. 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Lettenmaier, Wilson Ceramic Laboratory, Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Box 352700, Seattle, WA 98195, USA. ([email protected]) P. Storck, 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group, Inc., 2001 Sixth Avenue, Suite 2100, Seattle, WA 98121, USA. 13 of 13
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