Research Report Number 5
January 2005
Analysis of Electoral Divisions Classifications
ISSN
Author
0816-3154
Gerry Newman
Enquiries
Information on Research publications are available on the AEC website: www.aec.gov.au. Other
enquiries can be made by e-mail to the Research Section of the AEC: [email protected]. Phone (02)
6271 4411
2
Analysis of Electoral Divisions Classifications
Introduction
The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) has been classifying electoral divisions since
1975. The current classification system categorises electorates on the basis of party safeness
and socio-demographic criteria and forms an integral part of the AEC’s mandate to inform the
public by making election results more meaningful.
The definition and application of these criteria over the period have not been consistent and
this has led to anomalies in the classification process. To address this situation the AEC has
reviewed the classification system. A new system will be in place following the 2004 federal
election.
Classification of electoral divisions will be based on three categories:
Party safeness;
Geographic criteria; and
Socio-economic classification.
The proposed system will build on and enhance the existing categories to provide a more
consistent and accurate classification system. The enhanced system will allow for better
targeting of like areas by the AEC and enhance the quality of election result analysis.
Current electoral division classifications
The AEC currently categorises electoral divisions according to two classifications:
Party safeness; and
Socio-demographic criteria.
Party safeness
The party safeness classification categorises divisions according to the party holding the
division (or notionally holding the division after the effects of a redistribution are taken into
account) and the margin in two party preferred terms. In the case of a division held by an
Independent the margin is based on a two candidate preferred analysis.
There are currently five party categories:
• Australian Labor Party (ALP);
• Liberal Party (LP);
• National Party (NP);
• Northern Territory Country Liberal Party (CLP); and
• Independent.
The margin categories are classified as:
• Marginal: requiring a swing of 0<6% to change;
• Fairly safe: requiring a swing of between 6<10% to change; and
• Safe: requiring a swing of 10%+ to change.
Socio-demographic criteria
The socio-demographic classification categorises divisions according to geographic location.
There are four categories:
3
•
•
•
•
Inner metropolitan: located in a capital city and comprising well-established, built-up
suburbs;
Outer metropolitan: located in capital cities and containing areas of more recent urban
expansion;
Provincial: divisions with a majority of enrolment in major provincial cities; and
Rural: divisions without a majority of enrolment in major provincial cities.
The current classifications have been used since at least the 1975 election.
Improving the classification of electoral divisions
The allocation of divisions to categories has not been centrally co-ordinated and this has
resulted in ad hoc, and at times inconsistent, classification decisions. Inconsistencies also
occur because although there are definitions to assist in categorising divisions, these are not
particularly exhaustive nor have they been consistently followed. For example, at the 2004
election the division of Capricornia was classified as provincial as 50.5% of its electors are
enrolled in Rockhampton. However, both Fairfax and Leichhardt were classified as rural
even though their respective enrolment was 51.1% based in the Sunshine Coast and 73.9% in
Cairns. This kind of anomaly is undesirable as areas with the same demographic and
geographic characteristics should be similarly classified.
The two current classifications cover geographic and political considerations. They do not
address socio-economic status issues. A third socio-economic classification will be added to
the existing categories to enable the analysis of election results by socio-economic status as
well as geographic area and party preference.
A third category: socio-economic classification
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes Socio-economic Indexes for Areas based
on aggregations of Census data. These indexes can be aggregated to electoral division level1
and provide a useful summary of the socio-economic characteristics of the area. The ABS
publishes four socio-economic indexes.
The “Index of Socio-Economic
Advantage/Disadvantage” is a general measure of the social and economic well-being of an
area and, of the four, is the most appropriate measure to indicate a division’s relative socioeconomic status.
The socio-economic classification of electoral divisions will divide divisions into four
roughly equal categories – high, upper middle, lower middle and low – based on each
division’s index of socio-economic advantage score. Attachment 1 provides a socioeconomic index score for each electoral division contested at the 2001 federal election.
Reviewing geographic classification
The following table outlines revised definitions of current socio-demographic classifications.
Based on the addition of the socio-economic classification to more accurately reflect issues of
socio-economic status, this category will now be referred to as geographic classification and
focus specifically on the characteristics of a division’s geographic area.
Inner Metropolitan
Divisions with an area of less than 10 000 sq kms, and
Divisions with a majority of electors within capital city
statistical division, and
Divisions comprising well established built up suburbs.
1
The index scores for the Electoral Divisions are calculated by taking the weighted average, using
population counts from the 2001 census across all Census Collection Districts for the Division. For
more information see Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas Australia 2001 Australian Bureau of
Statistics, Information Paper 2039.0, Section 2.2
4
Outer Metropolitan
Provincial
Rural
Divisions with an area of less than 10 000 sq kms, and
Divisions with a majority of electors within capital city
statistical division, and
Divisions containing areas of more recent urban expansion.
Divisions with an area of less than 10 000 sq kms, and
Divisions with a majority of electors outside capital city
statistical division, and
Divisions with a majority of electors in major provincial
centres with a population of 50 000 or more.
Divisions with an area of 10 000 sq kms or more, or
Divisions with an area of less than 10 000 sq kms and not
classified as Metropolitan or Provincial.
All divisions of 10,000 square kilometres or more will be classified as rural, regardless of
where the majority of their enrolment is located.
The new geographic classification is simply a refinement to the existing classification
structure. It is more rigorous and subject to less subjective judgement than the existing
classification. Refining the definition will have a minimal impact on current classifications, as
less than 15% of divisions will have their classification altered. It will however make
classification decisions more accurate and ensure like divisions are categorised consistently.
The use of area specific criteria will also assist in making more meaningful the classification
of divisions such as the Northern Territory, where there are a number of contradictory
indicators.
A list of divisions whose geographic classification is proposed to change is at Attachment 2.
Managing the Classification Process
The AEC will continue assigning classification categories to electoral divisions.
Classification decisions will only be made after consultation with the Australian Electoral
Officer of the relevant State or Territory.
There will be three categories of classification:
• the existing classification according to party safeness;
• geographic classification which, as outlined above will build on and clarify the
existing socio-demographic classification; and
• a new category based on socio-economic criteria and as outlined above.
The allocation of electoral divisions to classification categories will be undertaken according
to the following schedule:
• geographic classification: after each redistribution in a State or Territory;
• party safeness classification: after each House of Representatives election OR after
each redistribution in a State or Territory; and
• socio-economic classification: after each population census OR after each
redistribution of a State or Territory.
Attachment 3 lists of electoral divisions against the three categories of classification.
The classification of divisions will be reviewed following a House of Representatives
election, a population census or a redistribution. The results of this review will be
promulgated through AEC publications and web media with a record of divisional
classification to be kept on the Roll Management System (RMANS). The first review of
electoral divisions against the three categories of party safeness, geographic criteria and
socio-economic status will occur following the 2004 federal election.
5
Any comments?
If you have any comments to make on the proposed change to the system of electoral division
classification please send them to the Australian Electoral Commission via: [email protected].
We appreciate your feedback.
6
Attachment 1: Electoral Divisions ranked by the Index of Relative Socio-Economic Advantage/Disadvantage
2001 Electoral Boundaries, 2001 Census
Rank
Electoral Division
LOW
1 Bonython (SA)
2 Fowler (NSW)
3 Wide Bay (Qld)
4 Lyons (Tas)
5 Braddon (Tas)
6 Cowper (NSW)
7 Page (NSW)
8 Barker (SA)
9 Hinkler (Qld)
10 Lyne (NSW)
11 Grey (SA)
12 Longman (Qld)
13 Gwydir (NSW)
14 Blair (Qld)
15 Chifley (NSW)
16 Throsby (NSW)
17 Brand (WA)
18 Wakefield (SA)
19 Oxley (Qld)
20 Port Adelaide (SA)
21 Paterson (NSW)
22 Maranoa (Qld)
23 Kennedy (Qld)
24 Parkes (NSW)
25 Holt (Vic)
26 Mallee (Vic)
27 Hunter (NSW)
28 Murray (Vic)
29 O’Connor (WA)
30 Gippsland (Vic)
31 Kingston (SA)
32 Bass (Tas)
33 Dawson (Qld)
34 Rankin (Qld)
35 Shortland (NSW)
36 Bendigo (Vic)
37 Richmond (NSW)
LOWER MIDDLE
38 Reid (NSW)
39 Corio (Vic)
40 New England (NSW)
41 Fairfax (Qld)
42 Blaxland (NSW)
43 McMillan (Vic)
44 Wannon (Vic)
45 Forde (Qld)
46 Farrer (NSW)
47 Forrest (WA)
48 Riverina (NSW)
49 Maribyrnong (Vic)
50 Gilmore (NSW)
51 Ballarat (Vic)
52 Calare (NSW)
53 Capricornia (Qld)
Index
Rank
Electoral Division
Index
UPPER MIDDLE
882
76 Batman (Vic)
891
77 Kalgoorlie (WA)
906
78 Newcastle (NSW)
908
79 Leichhardt (Qld)
908
80 McEwan (Vic)
922
81 Burke (Vic)
923
82 Herbert (Qld)
923
83 Moncrieff (Qld)
925
84 Macarthur (NSW)
925
85 Fadden (Qld)
927
86 Petrie (Qld)
928
87 Isaacs (Vic)
929
88 Hindmarsh (SA)
932
89 Hotham (Vic)
933
90 Bowman (Qld)
933
91 Robertson (NSW)
933
92 Cowan (WA)
935
93 Dunkley (Vic)
935
94 Wills (Vic)
936
95 Corangamite (Vic)
938
96 Stirling (WA)
939
97 Denison (Tas)
939
98 Fremantle (WA)
940
99 Lindsay (NSW)
942
100 Perth (WA)
943
101 Greenway (NSW)
943
102 Bruce (Vic)
944
103 Swan (WA)
946
104 Banks (NSW)
946
105 Casey (Vic)
946
106 Lilley (Qld)
947
107 La Trobe (Vic)
947
108 Dickson (Qld)
947
109 Cunningham (NSW)
948
110 Mayo (SA)
948
111 Barton (NSW)
948 HIGH
112 Macquarie (NSW)
949
113 Solomon (NT)
949
114 Parramatta (NSW)
950
115 Sturt (SA)
950
116 Adelaide (SA)
951
117 Boothby (SA)
951
118 Moreton (Qld)
952
119 Aston (Vic)
953
120 Deakin (Vic)
956
121 Griffith (Qld)
958
122 Moore (WA)
959
123 Kingston-Smith (NSW)
959
124 Jagajaga (Vic)
961
125 Chisholm (Vic)
963
126 Grayndler (NSW)
963
127 Cook (NSW)
965
128 Tangney (WA)
989
989
990
990
991
991
993
994
997
997
997
999
1000
1000
1002
1002
1002
1003
1004
1004
1005
1008
1008
1014
1015
1016
1017
1018
1020
1020
1021
1028
1029
1029
1035
1038
1043
1052
1052
1052
1053
1054
1055
1055
1057
1064
1064
1069
1076
1077
1082
1085
1086
7
LOWER MIDDLE (continued)
54 Indi (Vic)
55 Fisher (Qld)
56 Franklin (Tas)
57 Scullin (Vic)
58 Calwell (Vic)
59 Charlton (NSW)
60 Gellibrand (Vic)
61 Prospect (NSW)
62 Groom (Qld)
63 Flinders (Vic)
64 Hasluck (WA)
65 Canning (WA)
66 Dobell (NSW)
67 Werriwa (NSW)
68 Lalor (Vic)
69 Pearce (WA)
70 Watson (NSW)
71 McPherson (Qld)
72 Makin (SA)
73 Eden-Monaro (NSW)
74 Lingiari (NT)
75 Hume (NSW)
965
967
967
967
968
969
970
971
972
973
973
976
977
979
979
984
985
985
985
986
987
988
HIGH (continued)
129 Hughes (NSW)
130 Melbourne (Vic)
131 Lowe (NSW)
132 Menzies (Vic)
133 Brisbane (Qld)
134 Bennelong (NSW)
135 Mackellar (NSW)
136 Fraser (ACT)
137 Canberra (ACT)
138 Goldstein (Vic)
139 Ryan (Qld)
140 Sydney (NSW)
141 Berowra (NSW)
142 Melbourne Ports (Vic)
143 Mitchell (NSW)
144 Curtin (WA)
145 Warringah (NSW)
146 Higgins (Vic)
147 Kooyong (Vic)
148 Wentworth (NSW)
149 North Sydney (NSW)
150 Bradfield (NSW)
1093
1095
1095
1101
1103
1114
1115
1121
1123
1127
1135
1140
1140
1144
1145
1150
1152
1162
1175
1182
1204
1204
8
Attachment 2 Proposed Changes in Geographic Classification
State
NSW
Victoria
Queensland
WA
Division
Cook
Cowper
Dobell
Lyne
Macarthur
Paterson
Robertson
Burke
Corangamite
Flinders
McMillan
Maribrynong
Capricornia
Fairfax
Fisher
Forde
Griffith
Longman
Brand
Pearce
2001 Election
Inner Metropolitan
Rural
Provincial
Rural
Rural
Rural
Provincial
Rural
Provincial
Rural
Rural
Outer Metropolitan
Provincial
Rural
Rural
Rural
Outer Metropolitan
Rural
Provincial
Outer Metropolitan
Proposed Classification
Outer Metropolitan
Provincial
Outer Metropolitan
Provincial
Outer Metropolitan
Provincial
Outer Metropolitan
Outer Metropolitan
Rural
Outer Metropolitan
Provincial
Inner Metropolitan
Rural
Provincial
Provincial
Outer Metropolitan
Inner Metropolitan
Outer Metropolitan
Outer Metropolitan
Rural
9
Attachment 3 Proposed Electoral Division Classification, After 2001
Election
State
NEW SOUTH WALES
Banks
Barton
Bennelong
Berowra
Blaxland
Bradfield
Calare
Charlton
Chifley
Cook
Cowper
Cunningham
Dobell
Eden-Monaro
Farrer
Fowler
Gilmore
Grayndler
Greenway
Gwydir
Hughes
Hume
Hunter
Kingsford Smith
Lindsay
Lowe
Lyne
Macarthur
Mackellar
Macquarie
Mitchell
Newcastle
New England
North Sydney
Page
Parkes
Parramatta
Paterson
Prospect
Reid
Richmond
Riverina
Robertson
Shortland
Sydney
Throsby
Warringah
Watson
Party Status
Area (sq
Geographic
kms)
Socio-economic Status (a)
Marginal ALP
Fairly safe ALP
Fairly safe LP
Safe LP
Safe ALP
Safe LP
Safe Ind
Fairly safe ALP
Safe ALP
Safe LP
Marginal NP
Safe ALP
Marginal LP
Marginal LP
Safe LP
Safe ALP
Safe LP
Safe ALP
Marginal ALP
Safe LP
Safe LP
Fairly safe LP
Safe ALP
Fairly safe ALP
Fairly safe LP
Marginal ALP
Safe NP
Fairly safe LP
Safe LP
Fairly safe LP
Safe LP
Fairly safe ALP
Fairly safe Ind
Safe LP
Marginal NP
Fairly safe NP
Marginal LP
Marginal LP
Safe ALP
Safe ALP
Marginal NP
Safe NP
Fairly safe LP
Fairly safe ALP
Safe ALP
Safe ALP
Safe LP
Safe ALP
54
42
53
712
54
97
21621
568
110
189
7700
490
952
30946
96844
47
5612
29
120
185604
265
25948
10594
62
351
41
9291
572
229
4197
182
199
53858
39
16682
268674
61
9632
159
62
2137
44971
785
304
50
387
56
33
Upper middle
Upper middle
High
High
Lower middle
High
Lower middle
Lower middle
Low
High
Low
Upper middle
Lower middle
Lower middle
Lower middle
Low
Lower middle
High
Upper middle
Low
High
Lower middle
Low
High
Upper middle
High
Low
Upper middle
High
High
High
Upper middle
Lower middle
High
Low
Low
High
Low
Lower middle
Lower middle
Lower middle
Lower middle
Upper middle
Low
High
Low
High
Lower middle
Inner metropolitan
Inner metropolitan
Inner metropolitan
Outer metropolitan
Inner metropolitan
Inner metropolitan
Rural
Provincial
Outer metropolitan
Outer metropolitan
Provincial
Provincial
Outer metropolitan
Rural
Rural
Outer metropolitan
Rural
Inner metropolitan
Outer metropolitan
Rural
Outer metropolitan
Rural
Rural
Inner metropolitan
Outer metropolitan
Inner metropolitan
Provincial
Outer metropolitan
Outer metropolitan
Outer metropolitan
Outer metropolitan
Provincial
Rural
Inner metropolitan
Rural
Rural
Inner metropolitan
Provincial
Outer metropolitan
Inner metropolitan
Rural
Rural
Outer metropolitan
Provincial
Inner metropolitan
Provincial
Inner metropolitan
Inner metropolitan
10
Wentworth
Werriwa
Fairly safe LP
Fairly safe ALP
26
168
Inner metropolitan
Outer metropolitan
High
Lower middle
VICTORIA
Aston
Ballarat
Batman
Bendigo
Bruce
Burke
Calwell
Casey
Chisholm
Corangamite
Corio
Deakin
Dunkley
Flinders
Gellibrand
Gippsland
Goldstein
Higgins
Holt
Hotham
Indi
Isaacs
Jagajaga
Kooyong
Lalor
La Trobe
Mallee
Maribyrnong
McEwen
McMillan
Melbourne
Melbourne Ports
Menzies
Murray
Scullin
Wannon
Wills
Fairly safe LP
Marginal ALP
Safe ALP
Marginal ALP
Fairly safe ALP
Fairly safe ALP
Safe ALP
Fairly safe LP
Marginal ALP
Fairly safe LP
Fairly safe ALP
Marginal LP
Fairly safe LP
Fairly safe LP
Safe ALP
Fairly safe NP
Fairly safe LP
Fairly safe LP
Safe ALP
Safe ALP
Safe LP
Marginal ALP
Fairly safe ALP
Safe LP
Safe ALP
Marginal LP
Safe NP
Safe ALP
Marginal LP
Marginal ALP
Safe ALP
Fairly safe ALP
Fairly safe LP
Safe LP
Safe ALP
Fairly safe LP
Safe ALP
101
8816
54
9939
64
3117
234
411
60
7566
808
59
124
2089
75
35534
48
39
106
71
24044
179
84
49
653
549
66632
64
14328
5744
54
43
116
15907
104
29693
52
Outer metropolitan
Provincial
Inner metropolitan
Provincial
Outer metropolitan
Outer metropolitan
Outer metropolitan
Outer metropolitan
Inner metropolitan
Rural
Provincial
Outer metropolitan
Outer metropolitan
Outer metropolitan
Inner metropolitan
Rural
Inner metropolitan
Inner metropolitan
Outer metropolitan
Outer metropolitan
Rural
Outer metropolitan
Outer metropolitan
Inner metropolitan
Outer metropolitan
Outer metropolitan
Rural
Inner metropolitan
Rural
Provincial
Inner metropolitan
Inner metropolitan
Outer metropolitan
Rural
Outer metropolitan
Rural
Inner metropolitan
High
Lower middle
Upper middle
Low
Upper middle
Upper middle
Lower middle
Upper middle
High
Upper middle
Lower middle
High
Upper middle
Lower middle
Lower middle
Low
High
High
Low
Upper middle
Lower middle
Upper middle
High
High
Lower middle
Upper middle
Low
Lower middle
Upper middle
Lower middle
High
High
High
Low
Lower middle
Lower middle
Upper middle
QUEENSLAND
Blair
Bowman
Brisbane
Capricornia
Dawson
Dickson
Fadden
Fairfax
Fisher
Forde
Griffith
Fairly safe LP
Marginal ALP
Marginal ALP
Fairly safe ALP
Fairly safe NP
Fairly safe LP
Safe LP
Fairly safe LP
Safe LP
Fairly safe LP
Fairly safe ALP
15095
600
72
235400
22440
754
591
4270
558
4873
123
Rural
Outer metropolitan
Inner metropolitan
Rural
Rural
Outer metropolitan
Outer metropolitan
Provincial
Provincial
Outer metropolitan
Inner metropolitan
Low
Upper middle
High
Lower middle
Low
Upper middle
Upper middle
Lower middle
Lower middle
Lower middle
High
11
Groom
Herbert
Hinkler
Kennedy
Leichhardt
Lilley
Longman
Maranoa
McPherson
Moncrieff
Moreton
Oxley
Petrie
Rankin
Ryan
Wide Bay
Safe LP
Marginal LP
Marginal NP
Safe Ind
Fairly safe LP
Marginal ALP
Marginal LP
Safe NP
Safe LP
Safe LP
Marginal LP
Fairly safe ALP
Marginal LP
Fairly safe ALP
Fairly safe LP
Safe NP
6417
2966
15427
562160
150236
139
1984
650504
369
182
107
669
149
151
238
53826
Provincial
Provincial
Rural
Rural
Rural
Inner metropolitan
Outer metropolitan
Rural
Provincial
Provincial
Inner metropolitan
Outer metropolitan
Outer metropolitan
Outer metropolitan
Outer metropolitan
Rural
Lower middle
Upper middle
Low
Low
Upper middle
Upper middle
Low
Low
Lower middle
Upper middle
High
Low
Upper middle
Low
High
Low
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
Adelaide
Barker
Bonython
Boothby
Grey
Hindmarsh
Kingston
Makin
Mayo
Port Adelaide
Sturt
Wakefield
Marginal LP
Safe LP
Safe ALP
Fairly safe LP
Safe LP
Marginal LP
Marginal ALP
Marginal LP
Safe LP
Safe ALP
Fairly safe LP
Safe LP
71
52006
269
119
897822
63
170
110
2035
234
66
31123
Inner metropolitan
Rural
Outer metropolitan
Outer metropolitan
Rural
Inner metropolitan
Outer metropolitan
Outer metropolitan
Outer metropolitan
Inner metropolitan
Inner metropolitan
Rural
High
Low
Low
High
Low
Upper middle
Low
Lower middle
Upper middle
Low
High
Low
WESTERN AUSTRALIA
Brand
Canning
Cowan
Curtin
Forrest
Fremantle
Hasluck
Kalgoorlie
Moore
O'Connor
Pearce
Perth
Stirling
Swan
Tangney
Safe ALP
Marginal LP
Fairly safe ALP
Safe LP
Fairly safe LP
Safe ALP
Marginal ALP
Marginal LP
Fairly safe LP
Safe LP
Fairly safe LP
Safe ALP
Marginal ALP
Marginal ALP
Fairly safe LP
430
4174
195
90
21143
200
227
2295354
78
179047
26251
74
76
108
70
Outer metropolitan
Outer metropolitan
Outer metropolitan
Inner metropolitan
Rural
Inner metropolitan
Outer metropolitan
Rural
Outer metropolitan
Rural
Rural
Inner metropolitan
Inner metropolitan
Inner metropolitan
Inner metropolitan
Low
Lower middle
Upper middle
High
Lower middle
Upper middle
Lower middle
Upper middle
High
Low
Lower middle
Upper middle
Upper middle
Upper middle
High
TASMANIA
Bass
Braddon
Denison
Franklin
Lyons
Marginal ALP
Fairly safe ALP
Safe ALP
Fairly safe ALP
Fairly safe ALP
7343
11760
221
7933
40604
Provincial
Rural
Inner metropolitan
Outer metropolitan
Rural
Low
Low
Upper middle
Lower middle
Low
12
NORTHERN TERRITORY
Lingiari
Fairly safe ALP
Solomon
Marginal CLP
AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY
Canberra
Fairly safe ALP
Fraser
Safe ALP
VICTORIA (After 2002 Redistribution)
Aston
Fairly safe LP
Ballarat
Marginal ALP
Batman
Safe ALP
Bendigo
Marginal ALP
Bruce
Fairly safe ALP
Calwell
Safe ALP
Casey
Fairly safe LP
Chisholm
Marginal ALP
Corangamite
Fairly safe LP
Corio
Fairly safe ALP
Deakin
Marginal LP
Dunkley
Fairly safe LP
Flinders
Fairly safe LP
Gellibrand
Safe ALP
Gippsland
Marginal NP
Goldstein
Fairly safe LP
Gorton
Safe ALP
Higgins
Fairly safe LP
Holt
Fairly safe ALP
Hotham
Safe ALP
Indi
Safe LP
Isaacs
Fairly safe ALP
Jagajaga
Fairly safe ALP
Kooyong
Safe LP
Lalor
Safe ALP
La Trobe
Marginal LP
Mallee
Safe NP
Maribyrnong
Safe ALP
McEwen
Marginal LP
McMillan
Marginal LP/NP
Melbourne
Safe ALP
Melbourne Ports
Fairly safe ALP
Menzies
Fairly safe LP
Murray
Safe LP
Scullin
Safe ALP
Wannon
Fairly safe LP
Wills
Safe ALP
1347849 Rural
326
Inner metropolitan
Lower middle
High
1900
High
High
Inner metropolitan
535 Inner metropolitan
96 Outer metropolitan
4652 Provincial
53 Inner metropolitan
7286 Provincial
68 Outer metropolitan
504 Outer metropolitan
409 Outer metropolitan
61 Inner metropolitan
7724 Rural
815 Provincial
61 Outer metropolitan
138 Outer metropolitan
1955 Outer metropolitan
91 Inner metropolitan
33164 Rural
49 Inner metropolitan
166 Outer metropolitan
39 Inner metropolitan
145 Outer metropolitan
72 Inner metropolitan
28008 Rural
171 Outer metropolitan
87 Outer metropolitan
49 Inner metropolitan
991 Outer metropolitan
588 Outer metropolitan
70694 Rural
71 Inner metropolitan
10675 Rural
8328 Rural
53 Inner metropolitan
44 Inner metropolitan
119 Outer metropolitan
16229 Rural
101 Outer metropolitan
33854 Rural
57 Inner metropolitan
Northern Territory (after 2003 Determination)
Northern Territory
Marginal ALP
1348175 Rural
(a) Based on 2001 Census.
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Other Publications in this Series
Research Report 1 – Informal Votes Survey, House of Representatives 2001
Research Report 2 – Redistribution Forward Estimates 1984-1999
Research Report 3 – Analysis of Declaration Voting
Research Report 4 – Australian Federal redistributions 1901 – 2003
2003
Dec 2003
Jun 2004
Apr 2004
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