OUTLOOK FOOD SECURITY A WORLD OF INSECURITY Malnutrition is a global problem. With population and consumption set to rise over the coming decades, achieving food security will require action on many fronts. By Julie Gould, infographic by Mohamed Ashour. 40 OVER AND UNDER Obese 35 Undernourished 30 Population (%) Malnutrition includes both the over- and underconsumption of calories. According to the World Health Organization, nearly 40% of Oceania’s population is obese. The highest rates of undernutrition are in Africa and the Caribbean, where around 20% of people fail to get enough calories. Estimate (<5%) 25 20 15 10 5 0 10.8% North America Central America Caribbean NORTH AMERICA of the global population is undernourished, equivalent to around 795 million people — the fewest people since records began in 1990. The daily supply of meat per person almost doubled between 1963 and 2013 (see page S18). Asia Oceania 30% surplus 20% surplus CARIBBEAN 15% surplus AFRICA OCEANIA 17% surplus 14% surplus CENTRAL AMERICA 27% surplus SOUTH AMERICA 31% surplus Cereals SUPPLY MAKE-UP INCREASE Africa ASIA Worldwide, calorie supply is 23% higher than required. Although at a regional level there is more than enough food available, significant variation exists at the national level — Haiti and the Central African Republic, for instance, both have 13% deficits. And availability is no guarantee of food security. Access to food, which is determined by factors such as location, affordability and gender, also has a part to play. Sugar and fat Dairy and eggs Fruit and vegetables Meat and fish Other 100 80 Daily food supply (%) 97.5% Europe EUROPE 46% surplus GLOBAL SURPLUS Globally, cereals are the biggest source of energy. In Asia, they made up around 50% of the region’s daily energy supply in 2013. Sugar and fats made up the biggest share of North America’s and Oceania’s daily energy supply. South America 60 40 20 0 North America Central America Caribbean South America Europe Africa Asia Oceania . d e v r e s e r s t h g i r l l A . e r u t a N r e g n i r p S f o t r a p , d e t i m i L s r e h s i l b u P n a l l i m c a M 7 1 0 2 © FOOD SECURITY OUTLOOK NET IMPORT NET EXPORT PRODUCTION BOOST SPREAD IT AROUND GROWING GAINS Many countries do not have enough land or water resources to feed their population and have to rely on potentially volatile global trade markets. In 2010, around 80% of countries were net importers of cereals. Caribbean nations are especially dependent on imports, whereas South American and European countries are the biggest net exporters. Food crop production increased significantly in the past half century. The quantity of cereals grown for human consumption has more than tripled since 1961, while cultivation of vegetables and melons has increased nearly fivefold. 221% 3 1961 Billion tonnes 2.5 2014 2 1.5 425% 85% 1 294% 0.5 0 The growth in global production has been driven more by rising yields than by increases in land used. This varies regionally, however. In sub-Saharan Africa, for example, cropland expansion has had the larger impact. EGYPT is the biggest importer of wheat. In total, around 40% of its food supply is imported (see page S14). 50 xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx North America exports nearly 80% of the wheat it produces. Harvested cropland has increased by around 21% 40 30 20 10 1961 1961 2014 Dairy and eggs 5% Globally, most pre-household food waste is fresh produce. As the population has grown, so has the amount of waste. It is now 74% higher than it was 30 years ago. The only region to significantly reduce waste is Europe, where it has almost halved since 1987. Sugar and fat 19% ANNUAL WASTE PER CAPITA Cereals 24% 500 Fruit and vegetables 51% North America Central America ARGENTINA exports more cereals compared with its consumption than any other nation. South America Europe Africa Asia Oceania 400 Annual waste (million tonnes) Caribbean Relative to its population, South America has the highest levels of food waste. This is driven by sugar — the crop accounts for nearly 50% of South America’s food waste. 300 200 100 0 50 2014 Meat, fish and other 1% Central America 100 903 743 0 STOPPING THE WASTE AUSTRALIA Fruit excluding melons Million hectares DOING MORE WITH MORE Yield (tonnes per hectare) including Barbados, Kuwait, Congo and Papua New Guinea imported more than 90% of their cereals between 2009 and 2011. Roots and tubers Vegetables and melons Cereals 26 COUNTRIES 0 –50 –100 –150 Cereal import dependency ratio (%; 2009–11) –200 1987 2013 Caribbean* South America Europe Africa Asia Oceania* * value < 2 million Sources: Food and Agriculture Organization and World Health Organization . d e v r e s e r s t h g i r l l A . e r u t a N r e g n i r p S f o t r a p , d e t i m i L s r e h s i l b u P n a l l i m c a M 7 1 0 2 © 2 7 A P R I L 2 0 1 7 | VO L 5 4 4 | NAT U R E | S 7
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