Economic Analysis
Trade Balance December 2016
Australia’s seasonally adjusted trade balance jumped by
72% to the largest surplus on record in December with a
positive balance of $3,511m, from a revised $2,040m
surplus in November (revised from $1,243m). The
consensus market forecast was for a surplus of
$2,200m. The dramatic improvement was driven by a
5.4% rise in export values while imports grew by just
under 1.0%. The result drove the trend estimate of the
trade balance, which looks through much of the monthto-month volatility, to a $2,193m surplus from a revised
$1,277m surplus in November (originally a deficit of
$16m).
Key Numbers Millions (Seasonally Adjusted)
Change
Dec
State Share Merchandise Exports excluding re-exports (Original)
Dec
Nov
Western Australia
41%
41%
New South Wales
15%
16%
Victoria
8%
8%
Queensland
24%
23%
South Australia
4%
4%
Tasmania
1%
1%
Nov
Trade Balance
$1,471
$3,511
$2,040
Goods and Services Exports
$1,679
$32,630
$30,951
Goods and Services Imports
$209
$29,120
$28,911
Export values were up sharply across a number of
categories driven in part by sharp rises in non-monetary
gold, coal and iron ore prices.
Key Exports Millions (Seasonally Adjusted)
Change
Dec
Nov
Rural Goods
$104
$4,093
$3,989
Metal Ores and Minerals (Iron Ore)
$682
$7,738
$7,056
Coal, Coke & Briquettes
$705
$5,869
$5,164
Other Mineral Fuels (Oil and Gas)
-$48
$2,279
$2,327
Non-Monertary Gold
$319
$1,722
$1,403
Manufactures
-$57
$2,824
$2,881
Services
$6
$6,167
$6,161
On the other side of the ledger, soft import growth is
indicative of weak domestic demand with capital goods
the main drag on imports, while the import of
consumption goods helped keep growth in imports
positive.
Imports Millions (Seasonally Adjusted)
Change
Dec
Nov
Consumption Goods
$157
$7,923
$7,766
Capital Goods
-$125
$5,449
$5,574
Intermediate and other merchandise goods
$132
$8,840
$8,708
Non-Monetary Gold
$4
$476
$472
Services
$42
$6,432
$6,390
Western Australia continues to boast by far the largest
share of the nations merchandise exports at $11,714m
in December or 41% of total Australian exports, jumping
by $2,145m from November. Queensland’s share
continued to rise from 23% to 24% due to the surge in
coal prices and volumes.
Comment
This was the largest trade surplus on record by far, and
is $1,279m higher than the second largest surplus in
February 2009. The large surplus was driven by solid
foreign demand and a continued sharp rise in prices for
our key commodity exports.
The sharp rise in export prices of coal and iron ore in
particular suggests the terms of trade continued to
improve in Q4 providing a further boost to national
income growth.
On the other side of the coin, weak import growth
suggests the domestic economy remains soft.
Seasonally adjusted goods and services imports were
0.1% higher than a year earlier, while goods and
services exports were 32.1% higher than a year earlier.
At the time of writing, the Aussie dollar has gained from
USD0.7597 just prior to the release to be currently sitting
at USD0.7625.
2 FEBRUARY 2017
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