The Man Who Ate Himself
Why overpopulation and over use of resources
will lead to humanity's decline
Anthony Vial
© Anthony Vial, 2011
The views expressed in this document are my own views and do not
represent the views of the Institute of my employer.
The Issue

Too many humans

Using too many resources

Too quickly
Housekeeping
• I am part of the problem
• I’m a positive person
• I am not a p
politician or a member of any
yp
political p
party
y
• This paper has been prepared for the Institute of Actuaries
of Australia’s (Institute) 2011 Biennial Convention
• The Institute Council wishes it to be understood that
opinions put forward herein are not necessarily those of
the Institute and the Council is not responsible for those
opinions
Not Quite An Original
Robert
Thomas
M lth
Malthus
Is this really a problem?
• Population has
increased 6 fold since
M lth
Malthus
• Increased standard of
living
• Improved diet
• Longer life expectancy
8
Billions
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
1710 AD
1760 AD
1810 AD
1860 AD
1910 AD
1960 AD
2010 AD
Is this really a problem?
8
Billions
7
• The current system is
based on finite
resources which we
know are running out
6
5
4
3
2
1
1710 AD
1760 AD
1810 AD
1860 AD
1910 AD
1960 AD
2010 AD
Here's one we prepared earlier
What I will cover
1. Population
2. Resources
3. Solutions
What I will cover
1. Population
2. Resources
3. Solutions
Population - Growth
Number
Time
Population - Historical
Billion
ns
8
7
6
Population
5
4
3
2
1
Source: Historical Estimates of World Population
U.S. Census Bureau
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldhis.html
Year
AD
20
00
AD
18
00
AD
16
00
AD
14
00
12
00
AD
AD
10
00
A
D
80
0
A
D
60
0
40
0
AD
AD
20
0
0
AD
-
Population – Future Estimates
Billion
ns
40
35
30
Population
2
25
20
Actual Historic
15
10
5
Year
A
D
23
00
A
D
22
00
21
00
A
D
A
D
20
00
A
D
19
00
A
D
18
00
17
00
A
D
-
Population – Future Estimates
Billion
ns
40
35
30
Population
25
Actual Historic
UN Medium
UN High
UN Low
20
15
10
5
Source: World Population to 2300
United Nations Economic and Social Affairs
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/longrange2.html
Year
A
D
23
00
A
D
22
00
AD
21
00
A
D
20
00
A
D
19
00
A
D
18
00
17
00
A
D
-
What I will cover
1. Population
2. Resources
3. Solutions
What I will cover
1. Population
2. Resources
3. Solutions
Resources - Overview
Humanities
Ecological
F t i t
Footprint
Source: World Wildlife Fund
2010 Living Planet Report
http://wwf.panda.org/about_our_earth/all_publications/living_planet_report/2010_lpr/
Millions
s
Resources - Forests
1,200
1,000
Forests
Area (Ha)
800
1990
600
2000
2010
400
200
Africa
Source: UN FAO
Global Forest Resource Assessment 2010
http://www.fao.org/forestry/fra/en/
Asia
Europe
North America &
Central
South America
Oceania
Resources - Forests
Source: United Nations Environment Program
2007 Rapid Response Assessment: The Last Stand of the Orangutan
http://www.unep-wcmc.org/resources/publications/LastStand.htm
Resources - Aquaculture
140.0
120.0
Millions of Tonnes
100.0
80.0
Total Fish Production
Fish Catch
Aquaculture
60.0
40.0
20.0
19
50
19
53
19
56
19
59
19
62
19
65
19
68
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
0.0
Source: UN FAO
World Review of Fisheries and Aquaculture
http://www.fao.org/fishery/en
Year
Resources - Aquaculture
Yellowfin Tuna
recovering from
underexploited
depletion
2%
Largehead Hairtail
1%
depleted
8%
Japanese Anchovy
moderately exploited
18%
Chilian Jack Mackerel
overexploited
19%
under exploited
Chub Mackerel
fully exploited
Blue Whiting
over exploited
Atlantic Herring
Skipjack Tuna
Alaska Pollock
fully
y exploited
p
52%
Anchoveta
Source: UN FAO
World Review of Fisheries and Aquaculture
http://www.fao.org/fishery/en
0
1
2
3
4
5
Catch Per Annum (mT)
6
7
8
Resources - Water
O er the past 100 years
Over
ears . . .
• 40,000
40 000 dams built in 60% of largest rivers
• 50% of wetlands removed worldwide
• 54% of freshwater runoff appropriated by
humans
Source: Homo sapiens: Overabundant and the Ultimate Pest?
A.R.Jones
Resources - Water
Yet despite this . . .
• 2.6 billion don
don’tt have basic
sanitation
• 1.1
1 1 billion don’t
don t have
secure drinking water
Source: United Nations
Water For Life
http://www.un.org/waterforlifedecade/sanitation.html
Resources - Water
Lake Chad
• Covers 8% of Africa’s area
• Spans 7 countries
• Supports 20 million
• Area: 9
9,500
500 sq miles to 250 sq
miles
• Fish catch: 250kt pd to 50kt pd
Resources - Water
M
Murray
Ri
River Basin
B i
• Covers 1m sq
q kms
• 23 rivers
• 14% of Australia’s land area
• Supplies
S
li 53% off cereals
l and
d
28% of cattle
• 3.3
3 3 million rely on its water
Source: NASA Goddard Space Flight Centre
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=3973
Resources - Water
Condition of Rivers
• 1 good
• 2 moderate
• 7 poor
p
• 13 very poor
Source: Murray Darling River Basin Authority
Sustainable Rivers Audit
Resources – Agricultural Land
Worldwide Agricultural Land
(Percentage of Available Land)
40%
39%
38%
37%
36%
35%
34%
33%
32%
31%
30%
1961
1966
1971
Source: Worldbank
Agricultural Land (% of land area)
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.AGRI.ZS?page=5
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Resources – Crude Oil
“Familiarity breeds contempt”
Resources – Crude Oil
=
year
Resources – Crude Oil
Hypothetical 6,000 billion Barrel World
Original Oil-In-Place Resource Base
Source: U.S. Energy Information Adimistration
Long Term World Oil Supply
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2004/worldoilsupply/oilsupply04.html
Resources – Crude Oil
Source: U.S. Energy Information Adimistration
Long Term World Oil Supply
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2004/worldoilsupply/oilsupply04.html
Resources – Crude Oil
World Crude Oil Production
((thousands barrels p
per day)
y)
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
1965
1970
1975
1980
Source: BP
Statistical Review of World Energy 2010
http://www.bp.com/productlanding.do?categoryId=6929&contentId=7044622
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
What I will cover
1. Population
2. Resources
3. Solutions
What I will cover
1. Population
2. Resources
3. Solutions
Solutions – Required?
“let us eat and drink; for
to morrow we die
die.”
Source: Conrinthians 15:32
The Bible, King James Version
Solutions
• Change our attitude
• Replace fossil fuels
• Reduce our population
Solutions – Attitude
• Resources
• Our Importance
• Engineering
• Economy
• Life
Solutions – Education
Educate the Populace
• Change
g is not p
possible unless p
people
p are aware of the
problem
Education of Woman
• Fewer and healthier children
• Mainly focussed on developing nations
Solutions – Measurement
GDP - Gross Domestic Product
• Measure of market movements
• Ignores
• Life expectancy
p
y and health
• Condition of infrastructure
• Quality of the environment
• Level
L
l off education
d
ti
Solutions – Measurement
HDI – Human Development Index
• Life expectancy, access to knowledge and standard of
living
HPI – Happy Planet Index
• Ecological efficiency
• Combine environment impact and well-being
• Life expectancy,
expectancy life satisfaction and ecological footprint
Source: United Nations Development Programme
http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/
Happy Planet
http://www.happyplanetindex.org/
Solutions – Population Limitation
Solutions – Energy Replacements
• Solar
• Wind
• Nuclear
N l
Source: Encyclopedia Britannica
http://www.britannica.com/
What I will cover
1. Population
2. Resources
3. Solutions
What I will cover
1. Population
2. Resources
3. Solutions
What I will cover
1. Population
2. Resources
3. Solutions
What I will cover
1. Population
2. Resources
3. Solutions
To liven the mood