ARCHIVES
u
DIMENSIONS OF
INSTITUTE
FOR
SOCIAL RESEARCH LIBRARY
CANDIDATE EVALUATION'
H e r b e r t F. W e i s b e r g
J e r r o l d G. Rusk
The
the
American P o l i t i c a l
University of
Michigan
prepared f o r d e l i v e r y a t
Science A s s o c i a t i o n Annual M e e t i n g ,
New
York,
1969
The s t o r y o f a p r e s i d e n t i a l e l e c t i o n y e a r i s i n many ways t h e s t o r y o f t h e
a c t i o n s and i n t e r a c t i o n s o f t h o s e c o n s i d e r e d as p o s s i b l e c a n d i d a t e s f o r t h e i r
nation's highest o f f i c e .
I f t h i s i s t r u e i n t h e a b s t r a c t , i t c e r t a i n l y was
t r u e I n t h e e l e c t i o n o f 1968.
The p o l i t i c a l h e a d l i n e s o f 1968 were c a p t u r e d
by t h o s e who r a n f o r t h e n o m i n a t i o n s o f t h e i r p a r t i e s , t h o s e who p o n d e r e d
o v e r w h e t h e r o r n o t t o r u n , t h o s e who c h o s e t o p u l l o u t o f t h e r a c e o r w e r e
s t r u c k down d u r i n g t h e c a m p a i g n , t h o s e who r a i s e d a t h i r d p a r t y b a n n e r , and
t h o s e who r e s i s t e d s u g g e s t i o n s t o r u n o u t s i d e t h e two p a r t y s t r u c t u r e .
While
1968 may have been u n u s u a l i n t h e e x t e n t t o w h i c h many p r o s p e c t i v e c a n d i d a t e s
d o m i n a t e d t h e p o l i t i c a l s c e n e , e v e r y p r e s i d e n t i a l e l e c t i o n i s , i n i t s own
way,
h i g h l i g h t e d by t h o s e c o n s i d e r e d f o r t h e o f f i c e o f P r e s i d e n t .
The p o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t has shown s c h o l a r l y i n t e r e s t i n t h e c a n d i d a t e s .
H i s i n t e r e s t , h o w e v e r , has b e e n s e l e c t i v e i n i t s f o c u s — m a i n l y c o n c e n t r a t i n g
on t h e two a c t u a l p a r t y n o m i n e e s and n o t t h e l a r g e r s e t o f p o s s i b l e p r e s i d e n t i a l candidates.
R e s e a r c h i n e l e c t o r a l b e h a v i o r has d e t a i l e d t h e p o p u l a r
image o f t h e n o m i n e e s i n t e r m s o f t h e p u b l i c ' s r e a c t i o n s t o t h e i r r e c o r d and
e x p e r i e n c e , p e r s o n a l q u a l i t i e s , and p a r t y a f f i l i a t i o n .
Furthermore, a t t i t u d e s
t o w a r d t h e n o m i n e e s h a v e b e e n shown t o c o n s t i t u t e a m a j o r s h o r t - t e r m i n f l u e n c e
on t h e v o t e .
Y e t a t t i t u d e s t o w a r d o t h e r c a n d i d a t e s have b e e n s u r v e y e d o n l y
t o a s c e r t a i n t h e b e h a v i o r o f t h o s e p e o p l e who f a v o r e d someone o t h e r t h a n t h e
u l t i m a t e n o m i n e e s . The f o c u s i n t h e d i s c i p l i n e r e m a i n s on t h e n o m i n e e s - f e e l i n g s t o w a r d them and w i l l i n g n e s s t o a c c e p t them.
As r e s e a r c h moves f r o m an e x c l u s i v e c o n c e r n w i t h e x p l a n a t i o n o f t h e
e l e c t i o n o u t c o m e , more s c h o l a r l y a t t e n t i o n s h o u l d be g i v e n t o p o p u l a r a t t i t u d e s t o w a r d t h e f u l l s p e c t r u m o f p o s s i b l e c a n d i d a t e s . Much r e m a i n s t o be
l e a r n e d about v o t e r s ' p e r c e p t i o n s o f the c a n d i d a t e s .
We s t i l l know v e r y l i t t l e
a b o u t t h e p s y c h o l o g i c a l d i m e n s i o n s o f m e a n i n g i n v o l v e d i n how an i n d i v i d u a l
p e r c e i v e s , r e a c t s t o , and e v a l u a t e s a s e t o f c a n d i d a t e s . We know l i t t l e
about
the more g e n e r a l o r g a n i z i n g c o n c e p t s a p e r s o n uses i n d e v e l o p i n g t h e s p e c i f i c
p e r c e p t i o n s and r e a c t i o n s d e s c r i b e d i n c o n t e m p o r a r y v o t i n g and p u b l i c o p i n i o n
surveys.
I n t h i s p a p e r , we s h a l l s e e k a d i m e n s i o n a l i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f t h e
*We a r e g r a t e f u l t o W a r r e n E. M i l l e r , S t u a r t E. M a c d o n a l d , and
R a b i n o w i t z f o r t h e i r v a l u a b l e a d v i c e and comments.
George
B.
^See, f o r e x a m p l e , A. C a m p b e l l , G. G u r i n , and W. E. M i l l e r , The V o t e r
D e c i d e s ( E v a n s t o n , 1 1 1 . : Row, P e t e r s o n , 1 9 5 4 ) ; A. C a m p b e l l , P. E. C o n v e r s e ,
W. E. M i l l e r , and D. E. S t o k e s , The A m e r i c a n V o t e r (New Y o r k : J o h n W i l e y and
Sons, 1 9 6 0 ) ; D. E. S t o k e s , "Some D y n a m i c E l e m e n t s o f C o n t e s t s f o r t h e P r e s i d e n c y , " A m e r i c a n P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e R e v i e w , 60 ( M a r c h 1 9 6 6 ) , 19-28.
W e i s b e r g and Rusk
Dimensions o f Candidate E v a l u a t i o n
-2i n d i v i d u a l ' s p e r c e p t i o n s o f and p r e f e r e n c e s f o r c a n d i d a t e s .
Extending the s e t
o f c a n d i d a t e s b e y o n d t h e bounds o f t h e t w o n o m i n e e s a l l o w s us t o s e a r c h o u t
b r o a d e r meanings o f c a n d i d a t e e v a l u a t i o n .
W h i l e l i t t l e i s known a b o u t t h e f a c t o r s l e a d i n g t o d i f f e r i n g p a t t e r n s o f
c a n d i d a t e e v a l u a t i o n , t h e v o t i n g behavior l i t e r a t u r e suggests a v a r i e t y o f
f a c t o r s as r e l e v a n t g u i d e l i n e s i n a n y i n i t i a l I n q u i r i e s .
The most o b v i o u s
long-term factor i s p a r t i s a n i d e n t i f i c a t i o n .
This p s y c h o l o g i c a l attachment t o
p a r t y h a s b e e n t r e a t e d as a m a j o r i n f l u e n c e on t h e v o t e a n d r e s e a r c h h a s shown
t h a t i t c a n c o l o r v o t e r s ' p e r c e p t i o n s o f t h e n o m i n e e s . The v a r i o u s t w i s t s
s u c h a f a c t o r c a n t a k e w i t h a l a r g e r s e t o f c a n d i d a t e s w i l l be a c o n t i n u i n g
theme o f t h i s p a p e r .
A d d i t i o n a l f a c t o r s w h i c h may a f f e c t c a n d i d a t e e v a l u a t i o n
p e r s o n ' s i d e o l o g y , t h e i s s u e s o f t h e d a y , and t h e p e r s o n a l i t y
The c r u c i a l t a s k i s t o d i s t i n g u i s h w h i c h o f t h e s e f a c t o r s a r e
r e l a t e d t h e o r e t i c a l q u e s t i o n i s t h e number o f d i m e n s i o n s used
candidate evaluation.
include a
o f the candidates.
important, A
as bases f o r
The p i o n e e r i n g w o r k on t h e m o d e l l i n g o f p a r t y c o m p e t i t i o n b y A n t h o n y
Downs was b a s e d on a u n i d i m e n s i o n a l i d e o l o g i c a l c o n t i n u u m . ^ As S t o k e s h a s
p o i n t e d o u t , Downs's n o t i o n o f a u n i d i m e n s i o n a l p o l i t i c a l s p a c e i s o n l y an
assumption.
The c o m p e t i t i o n c o u l d i n s t e a d r o a m o v e r a m u l t i d i m e n s i o n a l s p a c e .
The p r o b l e m o f t h e number o f d i m e n s i o n s s h o u l d be seen as a n e m p i r i c a l q u e s t i o n .
E v i d e n c e f r o m s u r v e y s o f mass p u b l i c s i n d i c a t e s m u l t i d i m e n s i o n a l i t y o f i s s u e s .
M o s t r e s e a r c h e r s u s i n g d i m e n s i o n a l a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e s on E u r o p e a n m u l t i - p a r t y
s y s t e m s have f o u n d t h e a s s u m p t i o n o f a s i n g l e i d e o l o g i c a l d i m e n s i o n t o be
inadequate.
A prime example i s Converse's s k i l l f u l a n a l y s i s o f t h e French
p o l i t i c a l s c e n e w h i c h f o u n d t w o d i m e n s i o n s b e i n g used f o r t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f
t h a t " c o u n t r y ' s many p a r t i e s . * ^ E x p l o r a t i o n o f t h e d i m e n s i o n a l i t y o f p e r c e p t i o n s o f c a n d i d a t e s i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s may be one means o f t e s t i n g t h e
d i m e n s i o n a l i t y o f t h e c o m p e t i t i o n space w i t h i n w h i c h n a t i o n a l c h o i c e s o f
l e a d e r s h i p a r e made.
THE THERMOMETER QUESTION
The s p e c i f i c f o c u s o f t h i s s t u d y w i l l be o n i n d i v i d u a l r e a c t i o n s t o a s e t
o f twelve candidates f o r n a t i o n a l o f f i c e .
D a t a w i l l be t a k e n f r o m t h e i n t e r v i e w s o f o v e r one t h o u s a n d r e s p o n d e n t s i n t h e 1968 e l e c t i o n s t u d y o f t h e
U n i v e r s i t y o f Michigan's Survey Research Center.
A measure was needed t o
o b t a i n the f e e l i n g s o f the respondents toward t h e several candidates.
We
f e l t t h a t t h e r e s p o n d e n t s h o u l d be a l l o w e d t o use t h o s e d i m e n s i o n s w h i c h
A.Downs, A n E c o n o m i c T h e o r y o f D e m o c r a c y (New Y o r k : H a r p e r and B r o t h e r s ,
1957) .
3
D. E. S t o k e s , " S p a t i a l M o d e l s o f P a r t y C o m p e t i t i o n , " A m e r i c a n P o l i t i c a l
S c i e n c e R e v i e w , 57. ( J
1963), 368-377.
4
P. E. C o n v e r s e , "The P r o b l e m o f P a r t y D i s t a n c e s i n M o d e l s o f V o t i n g
C h a n g e , " i n M. K. J e n n i n g s a n d L. H. Z e i g l e r ( e d s . ) , The E l e c t o r a l P r o c e s s
( E n g l e w o o d C l i f f s , N. J . : P r e n t i c e - H a l l , 1 9 6 6 ) .
u
n
e
W e i s b e r g and Rusk
Dimensions o f Candidate E v a l u a t i o n
-3come n a t u r a l l y t o h i m , w h i c h a r e h i s n o r m a l g u i d e l i n e s f o r t h i n k i n g a b o u t
candidates.
By o b t a i n i n g s u c h r e s p o n s e s w i t h o u t i m p o s i n g a f r a m e o f r e f e r e n c e ,
i t becomes p o s s i b l e i n t h e a n a l y s i s t o deduce t h e d i m e n s i o n s o f i m p o r t a n c e i n
the
thought o f i n d i v i d u a l s .
We have e m p l o y e d a m e a s u r i n g d e v i c e c a l l e d t h e
" f e e l i n g t h e r m o m e t e r " w h i c h p r o v i d e s one s u c h n e u t r a l l y w o r d e d means o f
e l i c i t i n g responses t o a wide v a r i e t y o f c a n d i d a t e s .
B a s i c a l l y a " f e e l i n g thermometer" i s a q u e s t i o n asking respondents t o
i n d i c a t e on a 0 t o 100 d e g r e e t e m p e r a t u r e s c a l e how warm o r c o l d t h e y f e e l
toward a s e t o f o b j e c t s - - i n t h i s case, c a n d i d a t e s
I f a person f e e l s part i c u l a r l y warm o r f a v o r a b l e t o w a r d a p o l i t i c a l f i g u r e , he w o u l d g i v e t h a t
c a n d i d a t e a s c o r e somewhere b e t w e e n 50 and 1 0 0 , d e p e n d i n g o n how warm h i s
f e e l i n g , was t o w a r d t h a t c a n d i d a t e .
I f he f e l t c o l d o r u n f a v o r a b l e t o w a r d t h a t
c a n d i d a t e , 0 t o 50 d e g r e e s w o u l d be t h e a p p r o p r i a t e s c o r i n g r a n g e .
The a c t u a l
s c o r e o f 50 d e g r e e s was e x p l a i n e d t o t h e r e s p o n d e n t t o be f o r c a n d i d a t e s a b o u t
whom he f e l t n e i t h e r p a r t i c u l a r l y warm n o r c o l d , a n e u t r a l p o i n t o n t h e s c a l e .
To make t h e t h e r m o m e t e r s c a l e more c o n c r e t e , a c a r d l i s t i n g n i n e t e m p e r a t u r e s
t h r o u g h o u t t h e s c a l e r a n g e and t h e i r c o r r e s p o n d i n g v e r b a l m e a n i n g s as t o
i n t e n s i t y o f " h o t " o r " c o l d " f e e l i n g s was h a n d e d t o t h e r e s p o n d e n t .
A separate
s t a t e m e n t i n t h e q u e s t i o n w o r d i n g a t t e m p t e d t o e l i c i t " d o n ' t know" r e s p o n s e s
t o i n d i v i d u a l c a n d i d a t e s when a p p r o p r i a t e .
The t w e l v e p e o p l e t h e r e s p o n d e n t s w e r e a s k e d t o r a t e o h t h e f e e l i n g
t h e r m o m e t e r c o v e r e d a w i d e r a n g e o f p o s s i b l e p r e s i d e n t i a l h o p e f u l s and i d e o l o g i c a l streams.
The names l i s t e d i n c l u d e d t h e a c t u a l p r e s i d e n t i a l n o m i n e e s
t h e m s e l v e s - - N i x o n , Humphrey, and W a l l a c e - - a n d t h e i r v i c e - p r e s i d e n t i a l r u n n i n g
mates.
L y n d o n Johnson.was i n c l u d e d , b e i n g t h e i n c u m b e n t p r e s i d e n t and c o n s i d e r e d a t one t i m e t o be a c a n d i d a t e f o r r e e l e c t i o n .
The o t h e r f i v e m e n t i o n e d
w e r e t h e m a i n p r e s i d e n t i a l h o p e f u l s d i s c u s s e d a t l e n g t h i n t h e media who f a i l e d
t o g e t t h e i r p a r t i e s ' n o m i n a t i o n s - - E u g e n e M c C a r t h y , R o n a l d Reagan, N e l s o n
R o c k e f e l l e r , George Romney, and t h e l a t e R o b e r t K e n n e d y . T h i s l i s t i s somewhat
a r b i t r a r y as a n y l i s t o f p r e s i d e n t i a l h o p e f u l s m u s t b e . H a v i n g t h e r e s p o n d e n t s
r a t e t w e l v e c a n d i d a t e s i s a r e a s o n a b l e t a s k i n a s u r v e y s e t t i n g and y e t p r o v i d e s
e n o u g h i n f o r m a t i o n f o r a d i m e n s i o n a l a n a l y s i s o f t h e c a n d i d a t e s p a c e . The v i c e p r e s i d e n t i a l nominees were i n c l u d e d o n a b a s i c a l l y p r e s i d e n t i a l - o r i e n t e d l i s t
b e c a u s e o f t h e use o f t h e v i c e - p r e s i d e n t i a l c a n d i d a t e s a s an i s s u e i n t h e
1968 c a m p a i g n and t h e f a c t t h a t t h e y a r e i n c r e a s i n g l y c o n s i d e r e d t o be an
i n t e g r a l part o f the p r e s i d e n t i a l race.
The r e s p o n s e s t o t h e t w e l v e c a n d i d a t e s c a n i n i t i a l l y be c o n c e i v e d o f as
i n d i c a t i n g e a c h i n d i v i d u a l ' s f e e l i n g s t o w a r d each g i v e n c a n d i d a t e .
Additionally
we s h a l l i n t e r p r e t t h e r e l a t i v e s c o r e s g i v e n t o t h e c a n d i d a t e s as i n d i c a t i n g a
person's preference order f o r these twelve candidates.
A r e s p o n d e n t i s assumed
t o p r e f e r most t h e c a n d i d a t e t o whom he g i v e s t h e h i g h e s t s c o r e , and so o n .
The t h e r m o m e t e r q u e s t i o n f o l l o w e d t h e b a s i c f o r m a t d e v i s e d b y A. R.
C l a u s e n f o r p r e v i o u s S u r v e y R e s e a r c h C e n t e r s t u d i e s , b u t was r e v i s e d b y t h e
a u t h o r s t o a p p l y t o c a n d i d a t e s r a t h e r t h a n g r o u p s and t o s c r e e n o u t " d o n ' t
k n o w " r e s p o n s e s . The f u l l w o r d i n g o f t h e q u e s t i o n i s g i v e n i n t h e a p p e n d i x .
F o r o t h e r a n a l y s i s i n v o l v i n g t h i s q u e s t i o n i n t h e 1968 e l e c t i o n s t u d y , s e e
P . E . C o n v e r s e , W. E. M i l l e r , J . G. R u s k , and A. G. W o l f e , " C o n t i n u i t y and
Change i n A m e r i c a n P o l i t i c s , " A m e r i c a n P o l i t i c a l S c i e n c e R e v i e w , f o r t h c o m i n g .
W e i s b e r g and Rusk
Dimensions of Candidate E v a l u a t i o n
-4W h i l e i t m u s t be a d m i t t e d t h a t t h e r e may n o t be a p e r f e c t c o r r e s p o n d e n c e
b e t w e e n an i n d i v i d u a l ' s r e l a t i v e s c o r e s and h i s p r e f e r e n c e o r d e r , t h e use o f
t h e t h e r m o m e t e r q u e s t i o n c o n s t i t u t e s one o f t h e s i m p l e s t means o f o b t a i n i n g
p r e f e r e n c e o r d e r s o v e r a l a r g e number o f a l t e r n a t i v e s i n a s u r v e y o f t h e mass
p u b l i c . More c o n v e n t i o n a l r a n k i n g o f a d o z e n c a n d i d a t e s w o u l d c o n s t i t u t e a
v e r y d i f f i c u l t t a s k f o r many r e s p o n d e n t s , w h e r e a s s c o r i n g t h e c a n d i d a t e s on
t h e t h e r m o m e t e r s c a l e was g e n e r a l l y p a i n l e s s .
I t s h o u l d be p o i n t e d o u t t h a t t h e t h e r m o m e t e r q u e s t i o n was a s k e d a f t e r t h e
election.
T h i s t i m i n g i s l i k e l y t o have a f f e c t e d t h e r a t i n g s o f t h e c a n d i d a t e s .
A "bandwagon e f f e c t " i n f a v o r o f p r e s i d e n t - e l e c t N i x o n must be c o n s i d e r e d
likely.
Humphrey was a l s o p r o b a b l y e v a l u a t e d much more f a v o r a b l y a t t h i s p o i n t
o f t i m e t h a n he w o u l d have b e e n d u r i n g t h e e a r l y p a r t o f t h e c a m p a i g n , due t o a
c o m b i n a t i o n o f t h e i n c r e a s e d p a r t y u n i t y o n h i s b e h a l f and sympathy f o r h i s
defeat.
The t r a g e d y o f t h e a s s a s s i n a t i o n o f R o b e r t Kennedy c o u l d be e x p e c t e d
t o y i e l d a more f a v o r a b l e r a t i n g f o r h i m t h a n w o u l d have b e e n o b t a i n e d f r o m a
m e a s u r e m e n t d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d i n w h i c h he was a c t i v e l y c a m p a i g n i n g .
Finally
t h e v i c e - p r e s i d e n t i a l c a n d i d a t e s were p r o b a b l y n e a r t h e i r peak o f s a l i e n c y a t
t h e moment o f t h i s s t u d y .
The t i m i n g o f t h e q u e s t i o n w i l l i n f l u e n c e o u r
m e a s u r e o f t h e r e l a t i v e a p p e a l o f t h e c a n d i d a t e s , b u t t h e r e i s no r e a s o n t o
e x p e c t a s y s t e m a t i c e f f e c t r e g a r d i n g the d i m e n s i o n a l a n a l y s i s .
The f i r s t t h i n g t o e x p l o r e a b o u t t h e d a t a o b t a i n e d f r o m t h e t h e r m o m e t e r
q u e s t i o n i s t h e i r basic s t a t i s t i c a l parameters.
By s t a t i s t i c a l p a r a m e t e r s i s
m e a n t t h e l e v e l o f s a l i e n c e o f t h e c a n d i d a t e s and t h e d i f f e r e n c e s i n a s s e s s m e n t s
o f t h e m as r e f l e c t e d i n t h e i r c e n t r a l t e n d e n c y and d i s p e r s i o n f i g u r e s .
Table 1
s u m m a r i z e s s u c h d e s c r i p t i v e f e a t u r e s f o r t h e c a n d i d a t e s i n c l u d e d i n t h e 1968
study.
Table
1 goes h e r e
An i n i t i a l g l a n c e a t t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f " d o n ' t know" r e p l i e s i n T a b l e 1
comments t o some e x t e n t o n t h e s a l i e n c e o f e a c h c a n d i d a t e .
The names o f t h e
c a n d i d a t e s i n 1968 were g e n e r a l l y r e c o g n i z e d b y t h e p u b l i c .
The q u e s t i o n was
d e l i b e r a t e l y w o r d e d t o i n v i t e " d o n ' t know" r e p l i e s t o t h e c a n d i d a t e s when
r e l e v a n t , b u t v e r y few were g i v e n .
The g r e a t e s t p r o p o r t i o n o f " d o n ' t know"
r e s p o n s e s was o n l y 8 p e r c e n t f o r Romney and M u s k i e .
The o n l y o t h e r c a n d i d a t e s
r e c e i v i n g more t h a n 6 p e r c e n t " d o n ' t k n o w s " w e r e t h e r e m a i n i n g v i c e - p r e s i d e n t i a l
candidates.
I n p a r t i c u l a r , Humphrey, N i x o n , W a l l a c e , J o h n s o n , and K e n n e d y
were n e a r l y u n i v e r s a l l y r e c o g n i z e d .
A l t h o u g h t h e s u r f a c e l e v e l o f s a l i e n c e was h i g h , a s u b s t a n t i a l number o f
the thermometer scores d i d n o t i n d i c a t e whether the respondent f e l t p a r t i c u l a r l y warm o r c o l d t o w a r d a g i v e n c a n d i d a t e .
A s c o r e o f 50 d e g r e e s c o u l d i n d i c a t e e i t h e r a m b i v a l e n t f e e l i n g s o r no o p i n i o n . The p r o p o r t i o n s o f 50's f o r
t h e p r e s i d e n t i a l n o m i n e e s , t h e i n c u m b e n t p r e s i d e n t , and t h e l a t e S e n a t o r
K e n n e d y w e r e a l l q u i t e s m a l l , b u t t h e o t h e r c a n d i d a t e s showed a s i z a b l e c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f such s c o r e s .
The l a r g e number o f 50 s c o r e s r e f l e c t s a s u b s t a n t i a l l a c k o f a f f e c t i v e f e e l i n g t o w a r d some o f t h e c a n d i d a t e s a n d , i n t u r n ,
q u a l i f i e s o u r e a r l i e r d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e i r s a l i e n c y . Some o f t h e c a n d i d a t e s
a r e p e r c e i v e d i n t h e m o s t s u p e r f i c i a l t e r m s w h i l e o t h e r s h a v e a more c e n t r a l
Dimensions
W e i s b e r g and Rusk
o f Candidate E v a l u a t i o n
Table 1
SUMMARY OF CANDIDATE THERMOMETERS
Candidate
Know
Don't
50°
Deviation
Standard
Mean
Mentions*
F i r s t Choice
Kennedy
1%
13%
26
70.1
43%
8%
Nixon
1
16
23
66.5
36
8
Humphrey
1
14
27
61.7
25
13
Muskie
8
. 31
22
61.4
16
10
Johnson
1
15
26
58.4
17
14
McCarthy
5
32
23
54.8
11
14
Rockefeller
4
30
22
53.8
9
15
Agnew
7
41
21
50.4
4
13
Reagan
5
34
22
49.1
5
17
Romne y
8
46
19
49.0
3
15
LeMay
7
29
26
35.2
3
40
Wallace
2
13
31
31.4
11
62
1304
1304
N's
could
13151326
12101311
12101311
12101311
Mentions*
L a s t Choice
*These c o l u m n s a d d u p t o more t h a n 100 p e r c e n t b e c a u s e a r e s p o n d e n t
g i v e t h e same h i g h e s t o r l o w e s t s c o r e t o s e v e r a l c a n d i d a t e s .
W e i s b e r g and Rusk
Dimensions of Candidate E v a l u a t i o n
-5place i n the respondents' c o g n i t i v e s t r u c t u r e s .
T h e r e a p p e a r s t o be a m a j o r
t h r e s h o l d f o r p u b l i c e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e c a n d i d a t e s w h i c h can be p a s s e d o n l y
t h r o u g h an e v e n t o f g r e a t i m p o r t a n c e such as t h e a c t u a l n o m i n a t i o n .
This
t h r e s h o l d has i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r t h e s u b s e q u e n t a n a l y s i s i n t h a t t h e d i f f e r e n c e s
i n e v a l u a t i o n s o f t h e c a n d i d a t e s c o u l d be r e l a t e d t o t h e i r d i f f e r e n c e s i n
saliency.
I n g e n e r a l , t h e c a n d i d a t e s were f a v o r a b l y p e r c e i v e d .
The mean v a l u e s i n
T a b l e 1 show t h a t m o s t o f t h e t w e l v e p o l i t i c a l f i g u r e s were g i v e n t h e r m o m e t e r
s c o r e s g r e a t e r t h a n 50, t h e b r e a k e v e n o r n e u t r a l p o i n t on t h e s c a l e . ^
Only
G e o r g e W a l l a c e and h i s r u n n i n g mate C u r t i s LeMay s c o r e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y b e l o w
50.
I n f a c t o v e r 60 p e r c e n t o f t h e sample gave George W a l l a c e t h e l o w e s t s c o r e
t h a t t h e y gave t o any o f t h e c a n d i d a t e s , a. s t r o n g i n d i c a t i o n t h a t he n e v e r
succeeded i n making a s e r i o u s appeal t o a m a j o r i t y o f the e l e c t o r a t e .
On t h e
p o p u l a r s i d e o f t h e l e d g e r , t h e l a t e R o b e r t Kennedy l e d the f i e l d .
The two
m a j o r p r e s i d e n t i a l c a n d i d a t e s a l s o r a n k e d h i g h as d i d H u m p h r e y s r u n n i n g m a t e .
L y n d o n J o h n s o n was a l s o seen i n f a i r l y p o s i t i v e t e r m s .
f
The r e a s o n s f o r t h e g e n e r a l l y p o s i t i v e p e r c e p t i o n s a r e n o t c o m p l e t e l y
c l e a r and c a n n o t be d i r e c t l y a s c e r t a i n e d f r o m t h e t h e r m o m e t e r d a t a .
One
n e c e s s a r y c o n d i t i o n f o r a v e r y f a v o r a b l e r a t i n g i s the s a l i e n c e o f t h e c a n d i date.
The c a n d i d a t e s w i t h t h e most f a v o r a b l e i m a g e s were p a r t i c u l a r l y w e l l known. A c l o s e l y r e l a t e d argument i s t h a t the p r e s i d e n t i a l race draws t h e
b e t t e r men i n p o l i t i c s - - m e n w i t h a good i m a g e , r e c o r d , and q u a l i f i c a t i o n s and
t h e m e d i a p u b l i c i t y and c o v e r a g e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e s e a t t r i b u t e s .
A third
e x p l a n a t i o n m i g h t be t h e p r e s t i g e and d i g n i t y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h s e e k i n g t h e
h i g h e s t o f f i c e i n t h e l a n d , t h o u g h some d e v i a n t c a s e s e x i s t t o q u e s t i o n t h e
g e n e r a l i t y o f s u c h a c o n c l u s i o n . Because t h e t h e r m o m e t e r r e a d i n g s w e r e t a k e n
a f t e r t h e e l e c t i o n , i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o know w h a t e x p l a n a t i o n m i g h t b e s t f i t
t h e m a j o r p a r t y n o m i n e e s . T h e y may have b e e n n o m i n a t e d because o f t h e i r p u b l i c
p o p u l a r i t y o r t h e y may have a c h i e v e d p u b l i c p o p u l a r i t y because o f t h e i r n o m i n a t i o n s and t h e e n s u i n g c a m p a i g n and e l e c t i o n .
For whatever r e a s o n s , i t i s
a p p a r e n t t h a t s u c h p o l i t i c i a n s , on b a l a n c e , a r e n o t v i e w e d i n a bad l i g h t , i n
t h e o l d s t e r e o t y p e d image o f " c o r r u p t , " " c r o o k e d , " o r "power h u n g r y " p o l i t i c i a n s .
As much as c a n d i d a t e s w e r e p e r c e i v e d f a v o r a b l y , i n d i v i d u a l s s t i l l were
a b l e t o d i s c r i m i n a t e among t h o s e p l a c e d b e f o r e t h e m . Two t y p e s o f d i s c r i m i n a t i o n r e s u l t e d — v a r i a t i o n o f s c o r e s w i t h i n c a n d i d a t e s a c r o s s a l l i n d i v i d u a l s and
v a r i a t i o n o f an i n d i v i d u a l ' s s c o r e s a c r o s s c a n d i d a t e s .
The s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n
f i g u r e s i n Table 1 a t t e s t to the f i r s t type of d i s c r i m i n a t i o n .
These f i g u r e s
show t h e c o n s i d e r a b l e f l u c t u a t i o n i n " f e e l i n g " r e c o r d e d f o r each c a n d i d a t e
o^e an v a l u e s o f a l l t h e c a n d i d a t e s w e r e d r a w n c l o s e r t o t h e b r e a k e v e n
p o i n t o f 50 on t h e s c a l e b e c a u s e o f use by some r e s p o n d e n t s o f t h e s c o r e o f
5 0 d e g r e e s t o i n d i c a t e no f e e l i n g a b o u t t h e c a n d i d a t e s , a m e a n i n g w h i c h was
o t h e r t h a n the i n t e n d e d meaning o f n e u t r a l f e e l i n g s .
The d i f f e r e n t i a l i n
means b e t w e e n W a l l a c e and LeMay w o u l d be a l l b u t e r a s e d i f t h i s f a c t o r was
c o r r e c t e d by r e m o v i n g a l l 50 r e s p o n s e s w h i l e t h e M u s k i e - H u m p h r e y d i f f e r e n c e
w o u l d be d r a m a t i c a l l y r e v e r s e d .
I f t h e c a n d i d a t e s g i v e n l a r g e numbers o f
5 0 ' s w e r e b e t t e r known, i t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t t h e y w o u l d have been r e c e i v e d i n
much more f a v o r a b l e o r u n f a v o r a b l e t e r m s as t h e p u b l i c w o u l d have b e e n b e t t e r
a b l e t o j u d g e them.
W e i s b e r g and Rusk
Dimensions o f Candidate E v a l u a t i o n
-6a c r o s s t h e s e t o f r e s p o n d e n t s ; s u c h v a l u e s r a n g e f r o m 19 d e g r e e s f o r Romney t o
31 degrees f o r Wallace.
A c a s e - b y - c a s e i n s p e c t i o n r e v e a l s t h e second t y p e o f
d i s c r i m i n a t i o n ; t h e s e t o f t w e l v e c a n d i d a t e s was i n v a r i a b l y p e r c e i v e d d i f f e r e n t l y
by any g i v e n i n d i v i d u a l .
The a v e r a g e e x t e n t o f t h e r a n g e o f s c o r e s g i v e n by
a r e s p o n d e n t was 73 d e g r e e s o u t o f t h e p o s s i b l e 100. The s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n
o f t h e v a l u e s g i v e n by t h e a v e r a g e r e s p o n d e n t was 23 d e g r e e s , compared t o a
t h e o r e t i c a l maximum o f 50 d e g r e e s .
These t w o t y p e s o f d i s c r i m i n a t i o n p r o v i d e
the i n g r e d i e n t s n e c e s s a r y t o j u s t i f y any a n a l y s i s o f c a n d i d a t e e v a l u a t i o n s .
I n g e n e r a l , t h e s t a t i s t i c a l p a r a m e t e r s o f t h e t h e r m o m e t e r q u e s t i o n have
p o i n t e d t o t h e r e c o g n i t i o n and p o s i t i o n e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e c a n d i d a t e s a l o n g
w i t h c o n s i d e r a b l e d i s c r i m i n a t i o n among t h e m . A n o t i o n o f t h o s e l i k e d and
d i s l i k e d was g a i n e d - - a p o p u l a r i t y s c a l e was i n d e e d i n e v i d e n c e and i t showed
the c r i t i c a l p o s i t i o n o f t h e p r e s i d e n t i a l nominees. B u t t h e b a s i s o f these
e v a l u a t i o n s i s y e t t o be e x p l o r e d . A s e a r c h beyond t h e d e s c r i p t i v e p a r a m e t e r s
o f t h e t h e r m o m e t e r s c o r e s t o t h e i r u n d e r l y i n g d i m e n s i o n s i s needed i n o r d e r t o
d e t e c t the antecedents o f candidate e v a l u a t i o n .
THE CANDIDATE SPACE
We s h a l l b e g i n a c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h e d i m e n s i o n a l p r o p e r t i e s o f c a n d i d a t e
e v a l u a t i o n w i t h a n a n a l y s i s o f t h e t h r e e a c t u a l p r e s i d e n t i a l n o m i n e e s b y themselves.
I t i s r e a s o n a b l e t o expect t h a t t h e i r c e n t r a l p o s i t i o n i n t h e campaign
w o u l d a c c o r d t h e m c r i t i c a l p o s i t i o n s i n t h e o v e r a l l c a n d i d a t e space w h i c h we
s e e k t o d e s c r i b e . T h e n we s h a l l t u r n o u r a t t e n t i o n t o t h e f u l l s e t o f c a n d i d a t e s
as a means o f n o t i n g t h e r e l a t i v e p o s i t i o n s t h e y a r e a s s i g n e d i n t h a t s p a c e .
Table 2 i n d i c a t e s t h e r e l a t i v e f r e q u e n c i e s f o r t h e v a r i o u s preference
o r d e r s f o r t h e t h r e e nominees. A b a s i c q u e s t i o n i s whether a s i n g l e dimension
Table
2 goes h e r e
can account f o r these p r e f e r e n c e s .
A necessary c o n d i t i o n f o r u n i d i m e n s i o n a l i t y
i s t h a t a l l t h e p r e f e r e n c e o r d e r s end w i t h o n l y t w o o f t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s . I f
t h e r e s p o n d e n t s do e m p l o y o n l y a s i n g l e d i m e n s i o n , t h e n t h e i r l a s t p l a c e c h o i c e
m u s t be one o f t h e t w o e x t r e m e a l t e r n a t i v e s o n t h a t d i m e n s i o n . ^
I f , on t h e
o t h e r h a n d , more t h a n t w o a l t e r n a t i v e s r e c e i v e s u b s t a n t i a l numbers- o f l a s t
These n o t i o n s a r e based o n C. H. Coombs's " u n f o l d i n g a n a l y s i s " d i s c u s s e d
i n h i s b o o k , A T h e o r y o f D a t a (New Y o r k : J o h n W i l e y and Sons, 1 9 6 4 ) , 8 0 - 1 2 1 .
The a s s u m p t i o n i s t h a t an i n d i v i d u a l c h o o s i n g among a l t e r n a t i v e s t i m u l i o r d e r s
t h e m i n t e r m s o f t h e i r d i s t a n c e f r o m h i s p o i n t o f maximum p r e f e r e n c e .
As a
r e s u l t , o n a c o n t i n u u m f r o m l e f t t o r i g h t o r d e r e d A, B, C, p e o p l e may g i v e
o n l y , t h e p r e f e r e n c e o r d e r s ABC, BAC, BCA, and CBA.
Preference orders w i t h the
m i d d l e s c a l e i t e m , B, i n t h e t h i r d c h o i c e p o s i t i o n w o u l d v i o l a t e t h i s m o d e l so
t h e ACB and CAB p a t t e r n s w o u l d be n o n e x i s t e n t u n d e r t h e c o n d i t i o n o f p e r f e c t
unidimensionality.
W e i s b e r g and Rusk
Dimensions o f Candidate E v a l u a t i o n
Table 2
PREFERENCE ORDERS FOR
White
.Independents
White
Republicans
51%
25%
6%
4
19
42
70
9
0
7
12
13
Humphrey
9
0
8
15
8
Wallace
Nixon
5
3
10
3
1
Humphrey
Nixon
3
0
5
.3
2
2nd C h o i c e
3 r d Choice
Humphrey
Nixon
Wallace
37%
93%
Nixon
Humphrey
Wallace
37
Nixon
Wallace
Humphrey
Wallace
Nixon
Humphrey
Wallace
N =
Total
White
B l a c k s .Democrats
1st Choice
r
NOMINEES*
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
997
112
344
265
251
Only t h e respondents g i v i n g d i f f e r e n t
scores t o t h e t h r e e nominees are i n c l u d e d .
Dimensions
W e i s b e r g and Rusk
o f Candidate E v a l u a t i o n
-7place choices, then multidiraensionality o f preferences i s indicated.
Inspection
of Table 2 i n d i c a t e s t h a t Nixon r e c e i v e d o n l y 8 percent o f the l a s t place scores
compared t o more t h a n t w i c e as many f o r Humphrey and many t i m e s more f o r W a l l a c e .
These r e s u l t s a r e b a s i c a l l y c o n s i s t e n t w i t h a s i n g l e d i m e n s i o n r a n g i n g f r o m
Humphrey a t one end t o W a l l a c e a t t h e o t h e r end w i t h N i x o n i n t h e m i d d l e .
This
p a t t e r n would f i t q u i t e w e l l w i t h t h e j o u r n a l i s t i c l e f t - r i g h t i n t e r p r e t a t i o n
o f t h e 1968 e l e c t i o n .
G i v e n t h e known l o w l e v e l o f i d e o l o g i c a l t h o u g h t among
t h e mass p u b l i c , we w o u l d assume t h a t t h i s d i m e n s i o n i s based more o n s p e c i f i c
i s s u e s t h a n on a g e n e r a l l i b e r a l - c o n s e r v a t i v e i d e o l o g y .
We s h a l l c o n s i d e r
l a t e r the nature o f the issues leading to t h i s l e f t - r i g h t dimension.
The e v i d e n c e , h o w e v e r , i s n o t u n a n i m o u s l y i n f a v o r o f a u n i d i m e n s i o n a l
left-right interpretation.
The t w o b o t t o m r o w s o f T a b l e 2 r u n c o u n t e r t o t h e
d i m e n s i o n a l m o d e l w h i c h p r e d i c t s t h a t N i x o n w o u l d r e c e i v e no l a s t p l a c e c h o i c e s .
F i v e p e r c e n t o f t h e r e s p o n d e n t s gave Humphrey t h e i r f i r s t c h o i c e and r e a c h e d
a c r o s s t h e c o n t i n u u m t o a l l o t W a l l a c e t h e i r second r a t h e r t h a n l a s t c h o i c e ,
a l t h o u g h t h i s i n v o l v e d b y p a s s i n g t h e m i d d l e p o s i t i o n on t h e s c a l e . A l s o a
f u l l q u a r t e r o f t h e 117 W a l l a c e s u p p o r t e r s i n t h e sample gave Humphrey as
t h e i r second c h o i c e , a g a i n v i o l a t i n g t h e l e f t - r i g h t d i m e n s i o n . W h i l e t h e
o v e r a l l l e v e l o f f i t i s a c c e p t a b l e , we s h a l l c o n s i d e r one f u r t h e r f a c t o r
w h i c h may e x p l a i n t h e s e d e v i a t i o n s .
A model o f p a r t i s a n i d e n t i f i c a t i o n and i t s e f f e c t s p r o v i d e s t h e a d d i t i o n a l e x p l a n a t o r y power w h i c h i s n e c e s s a r y .
P a r t y i d e n t i f i e r s should give
the
l o w e s t number o f l a s t p l a c e s c o r e s t o t h e n o m i n e e o f t h e i r p a r t y .
Thus
D e m o c r a t i c i d e n t i f i e r s s h o u l d g i v e f e w e s t l a s t p l a c e c h o i c e s t o Humphrey, a
p r e d i c t i o n o p p o s i t e t o t h a t o f t h e l e f t - r i g h t model.
The t w o b o t t o m r o w s o f
Table 2 are c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h i s n o t i o n o f p a r t y i d e n t i f i c a t i o n f o r Democratic
r e s p o n d e n t s b u t t h e t w o m i d d l e r o w s do n o t f i t s u c h an e x p l a n a t i o n .
That
f a i r l y e q u a l numbers o f D e m o c r a t s f a l l i n t o e a c h o f t h e s e c a t e g o r i e s s u g g e s t s
t h a t n e i t h e r model i s s u f f i c i e n t i n i t s e l f . ^
I n p a r t i c u l a r t h e 15 p e r c e n t i n
e a c h c a t e g o r y w o u l d be a s i z a b l e l e v e l o f e r r o r u n d e r a n y m o d e l .
Predictions
f r o m p a r t y i d e n t i f i c a t i o n and t h e l e f t - r i g h t t h e o r y p o s t u l a t e d h e r e a r e t h e
same i n t h e case o f R e p u b l i c a n i d e n t i f i e r s , so no new i n f o r m a t i o n i s g l e a n e d
f r o m t h i s s o u r c e . The c o m b i n e d i m p a c t o f p a r t y i d e n t i f i c a t i o n and t h e l e f t r i g h t m o d e l i n d e e d y i e l d s a v e r y good f i t f o r R e p u b l i c a n i d e n t i f i e r s w i t h
o n l y 3 p e r c e n t g i v i n g N i x o n t h e i r l a s t c h o i c e . The c o r r e s p o n d e n c e o f t h e
choice p a t t e r n s o f Independent i d e n t i f i e r s t o l e f t - r i g h t ideas i s s i g n i f i c a n t
s i n c e p a r t y i d e n t i f i c a t i o n t h e o r y makes no p a r t i c u l a r p r e d i c t i o n s f o r t h e i r
An a l t e r n a t e e x p l a n a t i o n o f t h e b e h a v i o r o f D e m o c r a t i c i d e n t i f i e r s i s
t h a t s u p p o r t f o r W a l l a c e w o u l d n o t be c o n s i d e r e d d e f e c t i o n f r o m t h e D e m o c r a t i c
p a r t y i n t h e South g i v e n the p e c u l i a r i t i e s o f Southern p o l i t i c s .
This hypothes i s y i e l d s t h e same p r e d i c t i o n we h a v e s p e c i f i e d f o r t h e p a r t y i d e n t i f i c a t i o n
m o d e l among D e m o c r a t s .
However, t h e e v i d e n c e i n f a v o r o f t h e p r e d i c t i o n of
t h e p a r t y i d e n t i f i c a t i o n m o d e l i s e v e n s t r o n g e r among t h e D e m o c r a t i c N o r t h
t h a n t h e Democratic South, which suggests t h a t the e f f e c t s o f p a r t y i d e n t i f i c a t i o n a r e more f u n d a m e n t a l t h a n a r e t h o s e o f S o u t h e r n p o l i t i c s .
W h i l e some
r e s p o n d e n t s may have v i e w e d W a l l a c e as a D e m o c r a t i c c a n d i d a t e b e c a u s e o f h i s
b a c k g r o u n d , we c h o o s e , p a r t l y f o r ease o f e x p o s i t i o n , t o r e g a r d h i s c a n d i d a c y
as s e p a r a t e f r o m e i t h e r major p a r t y .
A t a minimum t h e r e i s no e v i d e n c e t h a t
h e was v i e w e d t o g e t h e r w i t h t h e r e m a i n i n g D e m o c r a t i c c a n d i d a t e s .
W e i s b e r g and R u s k
Dimensions o f Candidate E v a l u a t i o n
-8behavior.
Given these r e s u l t s , t h e l e f t - r i g h t d i m e n s i o n i s a b e t t e r i d e o l o g i c a l
d i s c r i m i n a t o r f o r R e p u b l i c a n s and I n d e p e n d e n t s t h a n f o r D e m o c r a t i c i d e n t i f i e r s .
The p u r i t y o f t h e d i m e n s i o n as a n i d e o l o g i c a l d i s c r i m i n a t o r i s l e s s e n e d f o r
D e m o c r a t i c i d e n t i f i e r s b e c a u s e o f t h e c o n f l i c t f o r some o f them b e t w e e n t h e i r
p a r t y i d e n t i f i c a t i o n and t h e l e f t - r i g h t m o d e l .
The o v e r a l l s t o r y i s b a s i c a l l y
a r e a d i n g o f t w o i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r s a t w o r k - - i d e o l o g y and p a r t y , w i t h t h e f o r m e r
h a v i n g more w e i g h t i n t h e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n b u t w i t h t h e l a t t e r r e t a i n i n g cons i d e r a b l e r e s i d u a l e x p l a n a t o r y power.
Now t h a t we have c o n s i d e r e d t h e p r e f e r e n c e s f o r t h e n o m i n e e s , we w i s h t o
t u r n t o t h e f u l l spectrum o f candidates.
The m a p p i n g o f t h e f u l l c a n d i d a t e
space n e c e s s i t a t e s a s h i f t i n a n a l y s i s p r o c e d u r e .
A n a l y s i s o f t h e raw preference
o r d e r s f o r t h e t w e l v e c a n d i d a t e s i s beyond t h e r e a s o n a b l e l i m i t a t i o n s o f simple
i n s p e c t i o n and hand a n a l y s i s . The a l t e r n a t i v e w h i c h we s h a l l a d o p t i s t o a n a l y z e
the i n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n s o f candidate r a t i n g s .
Candidates perceived i n a similar
f a s h i o n s h o u l d h a v e s u b s t a n t i a l p o s i t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n s ; t h o s e seen a s q u i t e
d i s s i m i l a r f r o m one a n o t h e r s h o u l d h a v e s i z a b l e n e g a t i v e v a l u e s . C o r r e l a t i o n
s c o r e s c l o s e t o z e r o i n d i c a t e a n absence o f s h a r e d p e r c e p t i o n s o f t h e c a n d i d a t e s .
The c o r r e l a t i o n s among t h e t h r e e n o m i n e e s , f o r e x a m p l e , a r e as f o l l o w s :
-.03
b e t w e e n N i x o n and W a l l a c e ; -.18 b e t w e e n Humphrey and N i x o n ; and -.32 b e t w e e n
Humphrey and W a l l a c e .
The r e l a t i v e m a g n i t u d e s o f t h e s e v a l u e s i n d i c a t e t h e
v e r y same l o c a t i o n s f o r t h e n o m i n e e s on t h e d i m e n s i o n as r e v e a l e d i n t h e p r e f e r e n c e o r d e r s o f T a b l e 2; t h e l a r g e s t n e g a t i v e v a l u e , b e t w e e n Humphrey and
W a l l a c e , p o i n t s t o t h e b a s i c o p p o s i t i o n o f t h e t w o and hence t h e i r p l a c e m e n t
a t o p p o s i t e ends o f t h e c o n t i n u u m .
I n s p e c t i o n o f t h e c o r r e l a t i o n m a t r i x of
Table 3 provides a s i m i l a r I n d i c a t i o n o f t h e dimensions underlying the f u l l
set o f data.
T a b l e 3 goes h e r e
One p a t t e r n o f i n t e r e s t i n t h e m a t r i x i s t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p o f W a l l a c e and
LeMay t o t h e o t h e r c a n d i d a t e s .
T h e i r c o r r e l a t i o n s a r e l o w and o f t e n n e g a t i v e .
I n p a r t i c u l a r , t h e two a r e viewed i n o p p o s i t i o n t o t h e D e m o c r a t i c c a n d i d a t e s ,
and t h e g e n e r a l i t y o f t h i s s t a t e m e n t c o u l d e x t e n d t o m o s t o f t h e o t h e r
p o l i t i c a l f i g u r e s as w e l l .
This suggests t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f a Wallace-nonW a l l a c e dimension, though
s u c h a d i m e n s i o n c o u l d a l s o have p a r t i s a n a n d / o r
issue overtones.
Another p a t t e r n i n t h e c o r r e l a t i o n m a t r i x stands o u t q u i t e v i v i d l y .
C a n d i d a t e s b e l o n g i n g t o t h e same p a r t y g e n e r a l l y h a v e h i g h p o s i t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n s w h i c h i m p l i e s t h a t t h e y a r e p e r c e i v e d i n a s i m i l a r v e i n . The f o u r h i g h e s t
c o r r e l a t i o n s i n v o l v e p r e s i d e n t i a l - v i c e - p r e s i d e n t i a l teams ( i n c l u d i n g J o h n s o n and
H u m p h r e y ) and t h e n e x t e i g h t h i g h e s t a l s o i n v o l v e p a i r s o f c a n d i d a t e s f r o m t h e
same p a r t y . A l l t h e i n t r a - p a r t y c o r r e l a t i o n s a r e p o s i t i v e .
Conversely, c a n d i d a t e s from d i f f e r e n t p a r t i e s a r e u s u a l l y viewed as
d i s s i m i l a r o r u n l i k e each o t h e r .
The c o r r e l a t i o n s b e t w e e n R e p u b l i c a n s and
D e m o c r a t s t e n d t o be n e g a t i v e , t h o u g h l o w e r i n m a g n i t u d e t h a n t h e i n t r a party correlations.
These r e s u l t s b u t t r e s s t h e e a r l i e r n o t i o n o f p a r t y
i d e n t i f i c a t i o n as a n i m p o r t a n t v a r i a b l e a f f e c t i n g t h e p r o c e s s e s o f p o l i t i c a l
perception.
However, a n e x c e p t i o n t o t h i s p a t t e r n i n g s t a n d s o u t .
McCarthy,
R o c k e f e l l e r , and Romney, t h o s e o u t s i d e o f t h e i r p a r t i e s ' m a i n s t r e a m s , a r e
W e i s b e r g and Rusk
Dimensions o f Candidate E v a l u a t i o n
Table 3
CORRELATIONS OF CANDIDATE THERMOMETERS*
H
Humphrey ( H )
M
K
J
Mc
Rk
Rm
N
L
W
x
M u s k i e (M)
.58
X
Kennedy (K)
.53
.43
X
Johnson ( J )
.70
.46
.47
X
McCarthy
.25
.29
.36
.13
X
R o c k e f e l l e r (Rk)
.17
.27
.24
.16
.33
X
Romney (Rm)
.17
.24
.26
.24
.33
.33
X
(Mc)
A
Agnew ( A )
-.10 -.03 -.01
-.04
.12
.14
.34
X
N i x o n (N)
-.18 -.09 -.13 -.09
.08
.13
.33
.60
X
Reagan (Rg)
-.19 -.07 -.10 -.09
.09
.19
.31
.44
.41
X
LeMay ( L )
-.21
-.16 -.09 -.09 -.02 -.04
.10
,30
.11
.28
X
W a l l a c e (W)
-.32 -.26 -.22 -.23 -.13 -.14 -.06
.13 -.03
.20
.68
*A11 c o r r e l a t i o n s a r e Pearson
r's.
x
Dimensions
W e i s b e r g and R u s k
o f Candidate E v a l u a t i o n
-9somewhat c o r r e l a t e d w i t h e a c h o t h e r — a b o u t as much so as w i t h members o f t h e i r
own p a r t y .
A common bond o f p o p u l a r p e r c e p t i o n s may l i n k t h e s e t h r e e men
together.
Kennedy i s a l s o a s s o c i a t e d w i t h them, b u t he h a s much h i g h e r c o r r e l a t i o n s w i t h t h e o t h e r members o f h i s p a r t y .
A " l e f t - r i g h t " i d e o l o g i c a l d i m e n s i o n o r some s p e c i f i c i s s u e m a n i f e s t a t i o n
o f i t m i g h t be u n d e r l y i n g t h e s e p a t t e r n s and m i g h t be i n t e r m i x e d w i t h t h e
partisan factor.
The D e m o c r a t i c c a n d i d a t e s t e n d i n g t o be more l i b e r a l t h a n
t h e R e p u b l i c a n s m i g h t e x p l a i n p a r t o f t h e p a t t e r n i n g i n t h e m a t r i x as m i g h t
t h e extreme p o s i t i o n t a k e n by W a l l a c e .
A l e f t - r i g h t d i m e n s i o n w i t h i n each
p a r t y might also e x p l a i n the r e l a t i v e c o r r e l a t i o n values f o r the separate
parties.
The b i p a r t i s a n c o r r e l a t i o n s o f M c C a r t h y , R o c k e f e l l e r , and Romney
( a n d , t o some e x t e n t , Kennedy w i t h them) a l s o s u g g e s t an i d e o l o g i c a l o r i s s u e
interpretation.
The f i n a l comment t o be made a b o u t t h e s t r u c t u r e o f t h e c o r r e l a t i o n
m a t r i x i s t h a t f o u r c l u s t e r s of c a n d i d a t e s are e v i d e n t .
The two A m e r i c a n
I n d e p e n d e n t P a r t y c a n d i d a t e s f o r m one c l u s t e r .
Three o f t h e f i v e R e p u b l i c a n s - Agnew, N i x o n , and Reagan--have t h e i r h i g h e s t i n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n s . w i t h one a n o t h e r
as do f o u r o f t h e f i v e D e m o c r a t s — H u m p h r e y , M u s k i e , Kennedy, and J o h n s o n .
T h e r e a l s o a p p e a r s t o be a weak b i p a r t i s a n c l u s t e r i n v o l v i n g M c C a r t h y ,
R o c k e f e l l e r , and Romney.
I n g e n e r a l , the existence of d i s c e r n i b l e c l u s t e r s w i t h i n the c o r r e l a t i o n
m a t r i x i n d i c a t e s an i m p o r t a n t d e g r e e o f s t r u c t u r i n g i n t h i s b o d y o f d a t a .
The r e l a t i o n s w i t h i n and b e t w e e n c l u s t e r s , h o w e v e r , a r e d i f f i c u l t t o gauge
from i n s p e c t i o n of the matrix.
The f u n d a m e n t a l r o l e o f p a r t y i n o r g a n i z i n g
t h e c o r r e l a t i o n s i s e v i d e n t f r o m e v e n t h e m o s t g e n e r a l l o o k a t t h e m a t r i x and
t h e r e i s f u r t h e r evidence of a l e f t - r i g h t dimension.
However, t h e i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s b e t w e e n t h e s e d i m e n s i o n s c a n n o t be f o u n d by s i m p l e i n s p e c t i o n
o f the m a t r i x .
C l o s e r i n s p e c t i o n o f t h e c a n d i d a t e space r e q u i r e s t h e use o f
a more s o p h i s t i c a t e d p r o c e d u r e f o r d i m e n s i o n a l a n a l y s i s .
q
We s h a l l e m p l o y n o n m e t r i c m u l t i d i m e n s i o n a l s c a l i n g
t o o b t a i n the dimens i o n a l s o l u t i o n w h i c h b e s t e x p l a i n s t h e c o r r e l a t i o n p a t t e r n s o f T a b l e 3.
A
n o n m e t r i c t e c h n i q u e makes weaker a s s u m p t i o n s t h a n does f a c t o r a n a l y s i s ; i t
r e q u i r e s t h a t o n l y t h e o r d e r i n g o f t h e c o r r e l a t i o n v a l u e s be c o n s i d e r e d as
m e a n i n g f u l d a t a and n o t t h e e x a c t v a l u e s t h e m s e l v e s . ^ W h i l e m a k i n g l e s s
1
See J . B. K r u s k a l , " M u l t i d i m e n s i o n a l S c a l i n g b y O p t i m i z i n g Goodness o f
F i t t o a N o n m e t r i c H y p o t h e s i s , " P s y c h o m e t r i k a , 29 ( M a r c h 1 9 6 4 ) , 1-27; J . B.
K r u s k a l , "Nonmetric M u l t i d i m e n s i o n a l S c a l i n g : A Numerical Method," Psychometrika,
29 ( J u n e 1 9 6 4 ) , 115-130. A l s o , L. G u t t m a n , "A G e n e r a l N o n m e t r i c T e c h n i q u e f o r
F i n d i n g t h e S m a l l e s t C o o r d i n a t e Space f o r a C o n f i g u r a t i o n o f P o i n t s , " P s y c h o m e t r i k a , 33 (December 1 9 6 8 ) , 4 9 6 - 5 0 6 ; J . C. L i n g o e s , "An IBM-7090 P r o g r a m f o r
G u t t m a n - L i n g o e s S m a l l e s t Space A n a l y s i s - I , " B e h a v i o r a l S c i e n c e , 10 ( A p r i l
1 9 6 5 ) , 183-184; R. N. S h e p a r d , " M e t r i c S t r u c t u r e s i n O r d i n a l D a t a , " J o u r n a l
o f M a t h e m a t i c a l P s y c h o l o g y , 3 ( J u l y 1 9 6 6 ) , 287-315.
^ T h e r e a r e two p a r t i c u l a r r e a s o n s why we have more f a i t h i n t h e o r d e r o f
t h e c o r r e l a t i o n values than i n t h e i r exact magnitudes.
First, individuals
t e n d e d t o r e s t r i c t t h e i r r e s p o n s e s , t o t h e n i n e s c o r e s c i t e d on t h e t h e r m o m e t e r
c a r d r a t h e r t h a n u s i n g the f u l l range p r o v i d e d by the thermometer analogy.
O r d i n a l c o r r e l a t i o n v a l u e s on such a n i n e p o i n t s c a l e d i d n o t e q u a l t h e
W e i s b e r g and Rusk
Dimensions of Candidate E v a l u a t i o n
-10s t r i n g e n t a s s u m p t i o n s , s u c h n o n m e t r i c t e c h n i q u e s have b e e n shown t o y i e l d
f a i r l y unique s o l u t i o n s .
Multidimensional scaling i n t e r p r e t s the correlations
as m o n o t o n i c w i t h d i s t a n c e s — t h e h i g h e r t h e c o r r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n two i t e m s
( c a n d i d a t e s ) , t h e c l o s e r t o g e t h e r s h o u l d be t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g p o i n t s i n a
g e o m e t r i c r e p r e s e n t a t i o n . A " g o o d n e s s - o f - f i t " m e a s u r e , c a l l e d " s t r e s s , " .'is
c a l c u l a t e d t o i n d i c a t e the e x t e n t t o which the best s o l u t i o n achieved i n a
g i v e n number o f d i m e n s i o n s s a t i s f i e s a m o n o t o n i c f i t w i t h t h e d a t a .
This
s t r e s s v a l u e i s a t a m i n i m u m f o r t h e c o r r e c t s o l u t i o n and i n c r e a s e s s h a r p l y
i n v a l u e as t h e number o f d i m e n s i o n s b e i n g used i s c u t t o o f a r b e l o w t h e
c o r r e c t number. The a n a l y s i s o f t h e c o r r e l a t i o n m a t r i x o f T a b l e 3 y i e l d s a
" f a i r " s o l u t i o n i n one d i m e n s i o n w i t h a s t r e s s o f .108 and a " g o o d " s o l u t i o n '
i n two d i m e n s i o n s w i t h a s t r e s s o f .050.
We s h a l l l o o k a t t h e s e two s o l u t i o n s , one a t a t i m e , i n o r d e r t o see what e x p l a n a t o r y power e a c h o f f e r s .
Figure
1 shows t h e b e s t u n i d i m e n s i o n a l
s o l u t i o n which
c o u l d be
obtained.''"
c o r r e l a t i o n values e a r l i e r o b t a i n e d , but t h e c r u c i a l p o i n t i s t h a t the order
o f such v a l u e s was v i r t u a l l y i d e n t i c a l f o r t h e two t y p e s o f c o e f f i c i e n t s
(Spearman's r h o = . 9 9 ) .
Second, a l l r e s p o n d e n t s d i d n o t n e c e s s a r i l y t r a n s l a t e
the
same f e e l i n g s t o w a r d s t h e c a n d i d a t e s i n t o t h e same t h e r m o m e t e r v a l u e s .
I n d i v i d u a l s c o u l d have d i f f e r e n t r e s p o n s e s e t tendencies--some p r e f e r r i n g t o
g i v e c a n d i d a t e s h i g h s c o r e s and o t h e r s t e n d i n g t o g i v e low s c o r e s , a r e s u l t
w h i c h w o u l d g i v e an a r t i f i c i a l p o s i t i v e b o o s t t o t h e c o r r e l a t i o n o f any p a r t i c u lar pair of candidates.
Such s l i p p a g e b e t w e e n a p e r s o n ' s a c t u a l f e e l i n g s and
h i s v e r b a l s c o r i n g o f t h e c a n d i d a t e s makes o u r c o r r e l a t i o n s more p o s i t i v e ( o r
l e s s n e g a t i v e ) t h a n t h e y s h o u l d be.
(A d e t a i l e d p r o o f o f t h i s r e g u l a r i t y i s
b e y o n d t h e scope o f t h i s p a p e r . ) One way t o c o r r e c t f o r t h i s e f f e c t w o u l d be
t o c o m p u t e c o r r e l a t i o n s b a s e d on e a c h i n d i v i d u a l ' s d e v i a t i o n s c o r e s f r o m h i s
mean; t h i s , h o w e v e r , w o u l d d e s t r o y t h e e n t i r e m e a n i n g f u l n e s s o f t h e t h e r m o m e t e r
s c a l e and i t s " a n c h o r s " o f 0, 50, and 100 d e g r e e s .
The v a l u e s o b t a i n e d f r o m
s u c h an o p e r a t i o n w o u l d be d i f f e r e n t f r o m o u r c o r r e l a t i o n v a l u e s , b u t a g a i n t h e
o r d e r o f t h e two s e t s o f c o r r e l a t i o n s w o u l d be e s s e n t i a l l y s i m i l a r .
( I n fact,
t h e Spearman r h o c o e f f i c i e n t b e t w e e n t h e o r i g i n a l c o r r e l a t i o n s and t h o s e obt a i n e d b y use o f s u c h d e v i a t i o n s c o r e s i s .96, a v a l u e w h i c h i s v e r y h i g h b u t
w h i c h d o e s p e r m i t some m i s m a t c h i n t h e o r d e r i n g o f c o r r e l a t i o n v a l u e s f o r g i v e n
p a i r i n g s of candidates.)
An a d d i t i o n a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n m o t i v a t i n g t h e use o f a n o n m e t r i c t e c h n i q u e
o v e r f a c t o r a n a l y s i s has t o do w i t h t h e p r o v e n t e n d e n c y o f t h e l a t t e r t o
o v e r e s t i m a t e t h e d i m e n s i o n a l i t y o f d a t a o f t h e t y p e used h e r e (C. H. Coombs,
A T h e o r y o f D a t a , Ch. 8 ) . I n d e e d some e x p l o r a t i o n w i t h f a c t o r a n a l y s i s on
t h e t h e r m o m e t e r d a t a showed t h a t i t was s u p p l y i n g one more d i m e n s i o n t h a n was
u n c o v e r e d by o u r use o f a m u l t i d i m e n s i o n a l s c a l i n g a l g o r i t h m .
^ T h e t e r m s used a r e
various stress values.
those
suggested
by K r u s k a l
f o r t h e e v a l u a t i o n of
12
The e x a c t d e t a i l s o f s u c h a s o l u t i o n s h o u l d n o t be o v e r i n t e r p r e t e d .
A d j a c e n t p o i n t s , such as J o h n s o n , K e n n e d y , and M u s k i e , m i g h t s w i t c h p o s i t i o n s
w i t h one a n o t h e r i f a l t e r n a t i v e a s s u m p t i o n s had b e e n made i n t h e a n a l y s i s .
T h u s s m a l l d i f f e r e n c e s i n t h e s o l u t i o n space s h o u l d n o t be g i v e n t o o much
c r e d e n c e . However, t h e g r o s s f e a t u r e s o f t h e s t r u c t u r e o f t h e s p a c e p a r t i c u l a r l y c l u s t e r s o f p o i n t s i n t h a t s p a c e — a r e g e n e r a l l y i n v a r i a n t under
the u n c e r t a i n t i e s g o v e r n i n g t h i s a n a l y s i s .
Dimensions o f
• W e i s b e r g and R u s k
Candidate'Evaluation
-11-
Figure
1 goes h e r e
N o t e f i r s t t h e p a r t i s a n s e p a r a t i o n i t p r o v i d e s . The D e m o c r a t i c c a n d i d a t e s a r e
a t one end o f t h e d i m e n s i o n , t h e A m e r i c a n I n d e p e n d e n t P a r t y c a n d i d a t e s a r e a t
the
o t h e r e n d , and t h e R e p u b l i c a n s i n b e t w e e n . Thus t h e p a r t i s a n s e p a r a t i o n
d o e s n o t c o r r e s p o n d t o t h e u s u a l p a r t y i d e n t i f i c a t i o n s c a l e w i t h D e m o c r a t s and
R e p u b l i c a n s a t o p p o s i t e ends b u t r a t h e r p a r a l l e l s the o r d e r o f the t h r e e nomin e e s on a l e f t - r i g h t d i m e n s i o n .
The d i m e n s i o n o f F i g u r e 1 a l s o d i s t i n g u i s h e s
the
c l u s t e r s f o u n d i n t h e c o r r e l a t i o n m a t r i x . Humphrey, J o h n s o n , Kennedy, and
M u s k i e f o r m one t i g h t c l u s t e r and Agnew, N i x o n , and Reagan f o r m a s e c o n d .
M c C a r t h y , R o c k e f e l l e r , and Romney c o n s t i t u t e an i n t e r m e d i a t e c l u s t e r b e t w e e n
the
two m a j o r p r e s i d e n t i a l s e t s , s i m i l a r t o t h e p a t t e r n d i s p l a y e d i n t h e
c o r r e l a t i o n m a t r i x o f T a b l e 3.
M c C a r t h y i s c l o s e s t t o t h e D e m o c r a t s , Romney
t o t h e R e p u b l i c a n s , and R o c k e f e l l e r m i d w a y b e t w e e n t h e m .
I d e o l o g i c a l l y these
c a n d i d a t e s a r e as l i b e r a l as t h e D e m o c r a t i c c l u s t e r i n some r e s p e c t s t h o u g h
l e s s l i b e r a l i n o t h e r s . The r e a s o n s f o r t h e c e n t r a l l o c a t i o n o f t h e s e c a n d i d a t e s
w i l l be f o r m u l a t e d more p r e c i s e l y when we expand t h e scope o f t h i s a n a l y s i s t o
i n c l u d e v a r i o u s p o l i t i c a l a t t i t u d e measures.
W h i l e F i g u r e 1 p r o v i d e s t h e b e s t f i t t i n g u n i d i m e n s i o n a l o r d e r i n g , we do
n o t r e g a r d t h e c a n d i d a t e space as e s s e n t i a l l y u n i d i m e n s i o n a l . The
unidimens i o n a l s o l u t i o n d i s t o r t s s e v e r a l o f the r e l a t i o n s h i p s between the candidates.
I n p a r t i c u l a r t h e r u l e o f m o n o t o n i c i t y b e t w e e n t h e c o r r e l a t i o n s and t h e
c o r r e s p o n d i n g i n t e r p o i n t d i s t a n c e s demands e v e n g r e a t e r s e p a r a t i o n b e t w e e n
N i x o n and W a l l a c e .
I t i s u s e f u l t o c o n s i d e r the o r d e r i n g o f the candidates
o n d i f f e r e n t p o s s i b l e c o n t i n u a . N i x o n w o u l d be a t t h e o p p o s i t e end f r o m t h e
D e m o c r a t s on a p a r t y i d e n t i f i c a t i o n d i m e n s i o n w h e r e a s W a l l a c e a l o n e w o u l d be a t
the
o p p o s i t e end f r o m t h e D e m o c r a t s on an i s s u e c o n t i n u u m s u c h as c i v i l r i g h t s .
F u r t h e r s e p a r a t i o n b e t w e e n N i x o n and W a l l a c e i s needed i f b o t h o f t h e s e o r d e r i n g s are t o c o - e x i s t .
of
The s o l u t i o n i n two d i m e n s i o n s
c a n d i d a t e s a r e a g a i n e v i d e n t and
Figure
i s shown i n F i g u r e 2.
one c a n s t i l l s e p a r a t e
The f o u r c l u s t e r s
the v a r i o u s p a r t i e s
2 goes h e r e
i n t h e s p a c e . The added d i m e n s i o n r e s o l v e s some o f t h e d i s c r e p a n c i e s i n t h e
one d i m e n s i o n a l s o l u t i o n .
The axes c h o s e n f o r F i g u r e 2 a r e i n t e n d e d t o s i m p l i f y
the
interpretation of this solution.13
The h o r i z o n t a l d i m e n s i o n r u n s f r o m t h e
D e m o c r a t s and R o c k e f e l l e r t o W a l l a c e .
T h i s o r d e r i n g seems t o c o r r e s p o n d
r o u g h l y t o a l e f t - r i g h t p a t t e r n or even t o a Wallace^non-Wallace dimension.
I n t e c h n i c a l t e r m s , we h a v e e m p l o y e d a v a r i m a x r o t a t i o n a r o u n d t h e
c e n t r o i d o f t h e space i n o r d e r t o a p p r o x i m a t e a s i m p l e s t r u c t u r e s o l u t i o n .
M u l t i d i m e n s i o n a l s c a l i n g s o l u t i o n s c a n be r o t a t e d f r e e l y b e c a u s e t h e c h o i c e
o f a x e s i n t h e m u l t i d i m e n s i o n a l space i s a r b i t r a r y .
The a r b i t r a r y d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f t h e axes s u g g e s t s t h a t t h e o v e r a l l s t r u c t u r e o f t h e space s h o u l d be
g i v e n t h e most emphasis o r , a l t e r n a t i v e l y , t h e r e l a t i o n o f the c a n d i d a t e items
t o v a l i d a t i n g a t t i t u d e i t e m s l o c a t e d i n t h e same space s h o u l d be s t r e s s e d .
W e i s b e r g and R u s k
Dimensions o f Candidate E v a l u a t i o n
Figure 1
A U n i d i m e n s i o n a l V i e w o f t h e C a n d i d a t e Space
H
J KM
Mc Rk
Rm
A N Rg
L
W
Dimensions
F i g u r e 2.
The C a n d i d a t e Space i n Two
M
Mc
Rk
Rm
W e i s b e r g and Rusk
o f "Candidate E v a l u a t i o n
Dimensions
W e i s b e r g ; and R u s k
Dimensions, o f Candidate E v a l u a t i o n
-12The v e r t i c a l d i m e n s i o n r u n s f r o m t h e D e m o c r a t i c c a n d i d a t e s t o t h e R e p u b l i c a n
and A m e r i c a n I n d e p e n d e n t P a r t y c a n d i d a t e s .
The o r d e r i n g h e r e m i g h t c o r r e s p o n d
r o u g h l y w i t h p a r t y i d e n t i f i c a t i o n and a t t i t u d e s on s o c i a l w e l f a r e p o l i c y or
g o v e r n m e n t power more g e n e r a l l y . We s h a l l n o t j u s t i f y t h e e x a c t o r d e r i n g on
t h e s e axes b u t w i l l f u r t h e r e x p l o r e t h i s q u e s t i o n i n t h e n e x t s e c t i o n .
The s o l u t i o n s we h a v e seen do no g r e a t damage t o o u r i n t u i t i v e v i e w s o f
t h e c a n d i d a t e s , b u t l o o k i n g a t t h e c a n d i d a t e s by t h e m s e l v e s p r o v i d e s us w i t h
p r e c i o u s few h a n d l e s by w h i c h t o i n t e r p r e t t h e dimensions o f t h e space.
T h e r e f o r e we s h a l l c o n s i d e r t h e r e l a t i o n s o f a t t i t u d e s t o w a r d t h e c a n d i d a t e s
t o a t t i t u d e s on i s s u e s and p a r t i e s as a means o f f u r t h e r e x p l a i n i n g t h e
candidate dimensions.
T h i s w i l l a l l o w us t o n o t e t h e s i m i l a r i t i e s i n t h e ways
i n w h i c h r e s p o n d e n t s v i e w c a n d i d a t e s , i s s u e s , and p a r t i e s and w i l l s i m p l i f y
t h e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f t h e d i m e n s i o n s o f t h e c a n d i d a t e space i t s e l f .
CANDIDATES, ISSUES, AND
PARTIES
P o l i t i c a l a t t i t u d e s w e r e i m p o r t a n t i n t h e 1968 e l e c t i o n a n d , i n a d d i t i o n ,
seemed t o s t r e s s o t h e r i s s u e s t h a n t h o s e e m p h a s i z e d i n e a r l i e r d e c a d e s .
The
e l e c t o r a t e o f t h e 1960's was c o n c e r n e d w i t h p r o b l e m s o f t h e c i t i e s , c i v i l
r i g h t s , V i e t n a m , p r o t e s t , and law and o r d e r . ^ C i v i l r i g h t s was n o t a new
c o n c e r n , b u t i t now became a s s o c i a t e d w i t h u r g e n t new p r o b l e m s o f d o m e s t i c
l i f e and f o r e i g n a f f a i r s .
The c o r r e l a t i o n s i n T a b l e 4 show t h a t t h i s new
Table
4 goes h e r e
i s s u e c l u s t e r has a c o h e s i v e c h a r a c t e r o f i t s own and i s l i t t l e r e l a t e d t o
p a r t i s a n i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o r t o t h e c l a s s i c s o c i a l w e l f a r e and f o r e i g n p o l i c y
areas.
P a s t v o t i n g s t u d i e s have h i g h l i g h t e d t h e i s s u e s o f s o c i a l w e l f a r e
The s o l u t i o n i n F i g u r e 2 s t i l l p o r t r a y s t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s b e t w e e n t h e
p a r t i e s more a c c u r a t e l y t h a n i t p o r t r a y s t h o s e w i t h i n t h e p a r t i e s .
I h part i c u l a r i t u n d e r s t a t e s t h e d i s t a n c e b e t w e e n M c C a r t h y and J o h n s o n . The t h r e e
d i m e n s i o n a l s o l u t i o n r e s o l v e s these r e m a i n i n g d i s c r e p a n c i e s , w i t h the t h i r d
dimension p r o v i d i n g s e p a r a t i o n w i t h i n each p a r t y .
This dimension d i v i d e s
J o h n s o n f r o m Kennedy and M c C a r t h y among t h e D e m o c r a t s and d i v i d e s N i x o n and
Agnew f r o m R o c k e f e l l e r , Romney, and R e a g a n .
I n e a c h case i t s e p a r a t e s t h e
" m i d d l e - o f - t h e - r o a d " c a n d i d a t e s i n t h e p a r t y f r o m t h e more l i b e r a l and conservative candidates.
Those c o n t r o l l i n g t h e i r p a r t i e s ' o r g a n i z a t i o n s a r e
d i v i d e d f r o m t h o s e who o p p o s e d t h e i r p a r t i e s ' e s t a b l i s h m e n t s . W h i l e t h e t h r e e
d i m e n s i o n a l s o l u t i o n p r o v i d e s an " e x c e l l e n t " f i t t o t h e d a t a ( s t r e s s = . 0 1 8 ) ,
t h i s t h i r d d i m e n s i o n y i e l d s l e s s e x p l a n a t o r y power t h a n t h e f i r s t two so we
s h a l l not consider i t f u r t h e r .
" ^ A p p r o x i m a t e l y t h r e e - q u a r t e r s o f t h e e l e c t o r a t e l i s t e d one o f t h e s e as
t h e m a j o r p r o b l e m f a c i n g t h e g o v e r n m e n t w h e n a s k e d j u s t b e f o r e t h e 1968 e l e c tion.
See a l s o C o n v e r s e , e t a l . , " C o n t i n u i t y and Change i n A m e r i c a n P o l i t i c s . "
W e i s b e r g a n d Rusk
Dimensions o f Candidate E v a l u a t i o n
Table
4
CORRELATIONS BETWEEN POLITICAL ATTITUDES
Party
Party i d e n t i f i c a t i o n
--Democratic*
Full
Employment
Gov't
Power
Urban
Unrest
Civil
Right's
Chicago
Vietnam
X
Favor government
guarantee o f
f u l l employment
.20
X
F e d e r a l government
is not powerful
enough
.29
.26
X
Solve u r b a n u n r e s t by
social solutions
rather than force
.15
.24
.15
X
Favor
.05
.17
.16
.26
X
Too much f o r c e was
used i n C h i c a g o
.05
.20
.06
.36
.34
X
Favor w i t h d r a w a l from
Vietnam r a t h e r than
escalation
.02
.16
.11
.29
.13
.24
X
Favor f o r e i g n a i d
.04
.13
.08
.12
.22
.22
.00
desegregation
Labels
Foreign
Aid
f o r the issue items
indicate
thedirection of their
scoring.
X
W e i s b e r g and R u s k
Dimensions of Candidate E v a l u a t i o n
-13and f o r e i g n p o l i c y , s h o w i n g t h e two t o be i n d e p e n d e n t o f e a c h o t h e r and the
f o r m e r t o be r e l a t e d t o p a r t y identification.1° R e s p o n d e n t s s t i l l
mentioned
t h e m i n 1968 b u t t h e y , by no means, had t h e s a l i e n c e and p r i o r i t y o f t h e more
c o n t e m p o r a r y f o c u s e d i s s u e s . The o t h e r p o l i t i c a l o r i e n t a t i o n o f c o n c e r n ,
p a r t y i d e n t i f i c a t i o n , r e m a i n e d s t a b l e i n 1968 compared t o e a r l i e r y e a r s , b u t
i t s l a c k o f a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h t h e new i s s u e c l u s t e r may have dimmed i t s r e l e v a n c e
in this election.
We s h a l l now r e l a t e t h e s e a t t i t u d e s d i r e c t l y t o t h e f u l l c a n d i d a t e space.
We have c h o s e n f o u r i t e m s f o r c l o s e r a n a l y s i s as b e i n g r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f the
t r a d i t i o n a l p a r t y and s o c i a l w e l f a r e a r e a s and t h e new d o m e s t i c and f o r e i g n
c o n c e r n s — t h e i t e m s b e i n g p a r t y i d e n t i f i c a t i o n and a t t i t u d e s on f u l l employment,
s o l u t i o n s t o u r b a n u n r e s t , and V i e t n a m , r e s p e c t i v e l y . M u l t i d i m e n s i o n a l s c a l i n g
o f t h e s e a t t i t u d e i t e m s i n b o t h t h e i r o r i g i n a l and r e f l e c t e d f o r m s t o g e t h e r w i t h
the
c a n d i d a t e e v a l u a t i o n s y i e l d s t h e s o l u t i o n shown i n F i g u r e 3 . ^
Figure
3 goes h e r e
The v e r t i c a l d i m e n s i o n o f F i g u r e 3 i s b a s i c a l l y p a r t i s a n .
The c l a s s i c
p a r t y i d e n t i f i c a t i o n item i s associated w i t h t h i s dimension.
A l s o t h e two
p a r t i s a n c l u s t e r s h a v e t h e i r h i g h e s t l o a d i n g s on i t . The s o c i a l w e l f a r e i s s u e
i s q u i t e close t o t h i s d i m e n s i o n — a r e s u l t which f i t s w e l l w i t h the f a c t that
p a r t y i d e n t i f i c a t i o n and s o c i a l w e l f a r e c o n c e r n s b o t h grew o u t o f -the economic
p r o b l e m s o f t h e 1930's. N i x o n i s n e a r e s t t o R e p u b l i c a n i d e n t i f i c a t i o n w h i l e
Reagan i s c l o s e s t t o t h e c o n s e r v a t i v e p o l e o f s o c i a l w e l f a r e , i n d i c a t i n g t h a t
s o c i a l w e l f a r e i s t i e d t o p a r t y though they are not completely i d e n t i c a l .
The h o r i z o n t a l d i m e n s i o n i n v o l v e s t h e more i m m e d i a t e p r o b l e m s o f 1968.
V i e t n a m a t t i t u d e s a r e a s s o c i a t e d m o s t s t r o n g l y w i t h t h i s d i m e n s i o n and t h e
u r b a n u n r e s t a t t i t u d e s a r e a l s o r e l a t e d t o i t . The A m e r i c a n I n d e p e n d e n t
Campbell, et a l . ,
The
A m e r i c a n V o t e r , Ch.
9.
l ^ T h e a s s o c i a t e d s t r e s s v a l u e i s .106, i n d i c a t i n g some d i f f i c u l t y i n
s a t i s f y i n g the monotonic c o n s t r a i n t s .
The need t o s a t i s f y t h e a d d i t i o n a l
r e l a t i o n s h i p s b e t w e e n t h e a t t i t u d e i t e m s and t h e c a n d i d a t e r a t i n g s has a f f e c t e d
somewhat t h e s t r u c t u r e o f t h e c a n d i d a t e s p a c e embedded i n F i g u r e 3, t h o u g h we
w o u l d r e g a r d t h i s c a n d i d a t e space as b e i n g e s s e n t i a l l y s i m i l a r t o t h a t o f
F i g u r e 2.
The a t t i t u d e i t e m s were i n c l u d e d i n b o t h t h e i r o r i g i n a l and r e f l e c t e d
forms i n order t o f a c i l i t a t e comparisons o f t h e i r l o c a t i o n s w i t h r e s p e c t to
b o t h l i b e r a l and c o n s e r v a t i v e c a n d i d a t e s .
W h i l e t h e c a n d i d a t e r a t i n g s have a
n a t u r a l d i r e c t i o n , the s c o r i n g o f these a t t i t u d e items i s a r b i t r a r y .
Therefore
i t makes sense t o c o n s i d e r b o t h p o s s i b l e d i r e c t i o n s f o r each i t e m . U n l i k e some
o t h e r a n a l y s i s p r o c e d u r e s , t h e m u l t i d i m e n s i o n a l s c a l i n g model does n o t f o r c e
the
two p o l e s o f an i t e m t o be e x a c t l y o p p o s i t e one a n o t h e r i n t h e s p a c e ,
t h o u g h we f i n d t h i s t o be a p p r o x i m a t e l y t r u e .
I f an i t e m i s r e l a t e d t o a
g i v e n a x i s , i t s a l t e r n a t i v e s c o r i n g s w o u l d be a t o p p o s i t e ends o f t h a t a x i s .
B o t h p o l e s , o f an i t e m u n r e l a t e d t o a d i m e n s i o n w o u l d p r o j e c t on a p p r o x i m a t e l y
the
same p l a c e on t h a t d i m e n s i o n .
Dimensions
F i g u r e - 3.
C a n d i d a t e s and A t t i t u d e s
Pro-social
welfare
• W e i s b e r g and R u s k
o f Candidate E v a l u a t i o n
i n Two D i m e n s i o n a l Space
Dem
ID
H'
K
M
Urbanliberal
Vietnam
withdrawal
Mc
Rk
fyn
V i e tnam
victory
,L
N
I
Rep
j£
i
W
Urbanconservative
Anti-social
welfare
W e i s b e r g and Rusk
Dimensions of Candidate E v a l u a t i o n
-14P a r t y c a n d i d a t e s and M c C a r t h y , R o c k e f e l l e r , and Romney have t h e i r h i g h e s t
loadings here.
The c o n s e r v a t i v e e n d s o f t h e V i e t n a m and u r b a n u n r e s t i t e m s
a r e n e a r W a l l a c e and LeMay. The l i b e r a l end o f V i e t n a m i s n e a r e s t t o M c C a r t h y
and Kennedy w h i l e t h e l i b e r a l end o f u r b a n u n r e s t i s c l o s e s t t o Kennedy and
Humphrey. Respondents t h u s d i d d i f f e r e n t i a t e w i t h i n t h i s s e t o f i s s u e s , though
o v e r a l l p e r c e p t i o n s o f c a n d i d a t e s on u r b a n u n r e s t and V i e t n a m a r e q u i t e s i m i l a r .
D i f f e r e n t i a t i o n i n r e s p o n d e n t s ' p e r c e p t i o n s was a l s o e v i d e n t i n t h e i r c o n t r a s t s
o f W a l l a c e and LeMay w i t h t h e r e s t o f t h e c a n d i d a t e s .
W h i l e t h e r e have been
p r e v i o u s i n d i c a t i o n s o f a W a l l a c e - n o n - W a l l a c e d i m e n s i o n , i t i s now
apparent
t h a t s u c h a d i m e n s i o n has i s s u e b a s e s and t h a t some l i b e r a l c a n d i d a t e s a r e a l s o
l i n k e d w i t h t h i s issue continuum.
The two d i m e n s i o n a l space a l s o comments on t h e r e l a t i v e p o s i t i o n i n g o f
t h e m a j o r p a r t y n o m i n e e s . The b a s i c o p p o s i t i o n o f Humphrey and N i x o n a l o n g
the v e r t i c a l dimension p o i n t s t o the importance o f p a r t y i d e n t i f i c a t i o n i n
m o l d i n g e v a l u a t i o n s o f the c a n d i d a t e s .
D i f f e r e n c e s b e t w e e n t h e m on t h e i s s u e
d i m e n s i o n were n o t c o n s i d e r a b l e , b u t t h e b o n d s o f t r a d i t i o n a l p a r t y i d e n t i f i c a t i o n k e p t them f r o m moving t o w a r d a " t w e e d l e d e e - t w e e d l e d u m " p o s i t i o n i n the
s p a c e . E v e n t h e i n t r u s i o n o f an i s s u e d i m e n s i o n i n 1968 d i d n o t e l i m i n a t e t h e
d i f f e r e n c e s due t o p a r t i s a n s h i p . I n f a c t t h e p a r t i s a n d i m e n s i o n i s o f somewhat
g r e a t e r i m p o r t a n c e t h a n t h e i s s u e d i m e n s i o n even i n the f u l l c a n d i d a t e space,
t h o u g h t h i s s h o u l d n o t be g i v e n t o o much e m p h a s i s s i n c e t h e measure o f i m p o r t a n c e
i s c o n s i d e r a b l y a f f e c t e d by t h e somewhat a r b i t r a r y s e l e c t i o n o f c a n d i d a t e s
i n c l u d e d i n the thermometer q u e s t i o n .
The two d i m e n s i o n s o f F i g u r e 3 r e p r e s e n t two b a s i c p o l i t i c a l c o n t i n u a .
The
v e r t i c a l a x i s c o r r e s p o n d s t o t h e p a r t i s a n i s s u e s w h i c h d i v i d e d t h e o l d l e f t and
the o l d r i g h t .
The h o r i z o n t a l a x i s c o r r e s p o n d s t o t h e i s s u e s w h i c h d i v i d e t h e
new l e f t and t h e new r i g h t , i s s u e s , w h i c h a r e n o t l i n k e d c l o s e l y t o t h e p a r t i s a n
a t t a c h m e n t s o f an e a r l i e r g e n e r a t i o n . I t i s t r u e t h a t a v e r y b r o a d l e f t - r i g h t
d i m e n s i o n d i v i d e s t h e i s s u e s and c a n d i d a t e s i n t h e u p p e r - l e f t c o r n e r o f t h e
d i a g r a m from those i n the l o w e r - r i g h t .
Indeed such a c o n t i n u u m . w o u l d c o r r e s p o n d
t o t h e o r d e r i n g o f t h e c a n d i d a t e s i n F i g u r e 1. However, t h e c o m p l e x i t i e s o f
1968 w e r e t o o g r e a t f o r a good f i t w i t h a s i n g l e l e f t - r i g h t d i m e n s i o n .
Equally
i m p o r t a n t , i s s u e s a p a r t f r o m t r a d i t i o n a l p a r t i s a n i d e n t i f i c a t i o n were c r i t i c a l
i n the d e t e r m i n a t i o n of a t t i t u d e s toward s e v e r a l o f the candidates.
The e l e c t o r a t e d i d adapt t o changing circumstances i n i t s e v a l u a t i o n of the candidates.
I n d e e d , t h e m a p p i n g o f F i g u r e 3 s u g g e s t s c o n s i d e r a b l e f l e x i b i l i t y and s e n s i t i v i t y
on the p a r t of the e l e c t o r a t e .
N e v e r t h e l e s s the data cannot i n d i c a t e whether these dimensions are unique
t o t h e 1968 e l e c t i o n o r w o u l d have b e e n f o u n d i n a s i m i l a r a n a l y s i s o f o t h e r
recent, p r e s i d e n t i a l e l e c t i o n s .
The "new i s s u e s " d i m e n s i o n i s m o s t l i k e l y t o
be a r e c e n t d e v e l o p m e n t w h i l e t h e d i m e n s i o n s i m i l a r t o p a r t y i d e n t i f i c a t i o n
p r o b a b l y has had a l o n g e r e x i s t e n c e . W h e t h e r t h e r e i s a l w a y s a c o n t i n u u m
r e l a t i n g t o t h e i s s u e s o f t h e day i n a d d i t i o n t o a l o n g - t e r m p a r t y i d e n t i f i c a t i o n d i m e n s i o n c a n n o t be a n s w e r e d b y t h e a n a l y s i s o f a s i n g l e e l e c t i o n .
The
n e a r c o i n c i d e n c e o f s o c i a l w e l f a r e and p a r t y i d e n t i f i c a t i o n m i g h t mean t h a t an
" i s s u e s o f t h e d a y " f a c t o r w o u l d n o t a p p e a r when an e l e c t i o n i s f o u g h t a l o n g
t r a d i t i o n a l social welfare lines.
The i s s u e s o f t h e d a y m i g h t f o r m t h e b a s i s
o f c a n d i d a c i e s i n any e l e c t i o n , t h o u g h we w o u l d r e g a r d t h e s h a r p d i c h o t o m i z a t i o n o f t h e d i m e n s i o n s i n t h i s e l e c t i o n as i n d i c a t i n g t h a t more f u n d a m e n t a l
c o n c e r n s w e r e a t w o r k i n 1968.
W e i s b e r g and Rusk
Dimensions o f Candidate E v a l u a t i o n
-15The d i m e n s i o n a l a n a l y s i s has shown t h e c r i t i c a l r o l e s o f p a r t i e s and
i s s u e s i n m o l d i n g p o p u l a r p e r c e p t i o n s , o f t h e c a n d i d a t e s i n 1968.
The i m p a c t
o f t h e s e f a c t o r s on t h e s p e c i f i c c a n d i d a t e s m u s t be d e t a i l e d as m u s t t h e cond i t i o n s governing t h e i r impactThe two f a c t o r s c o u l d w o r k t o g e t h e r o r
s e p a r a t e l y , d e p e n d i n g on t h e c i r c u m s t a n c e s - o f t h e e l e c t i o n y e a r and i t s c a s t
o f l e a d i n g c h a r a c t e r s . We s h a l l now c o n c e n t r a t e on how t h e s e f a c t o r s o p e r a t e
o n e a c h o f o u r t w e l v e c a n d i d a t e s and how t h e y i n t e r r e l a t e i n t h e i r e f f e c t s .
We
s h a l l l a t e r s p e c i f y the p r o b a b l e c o n d i t i o n s under which t h e d i f f e r e n t dimensions
o f c a n d i d a t e e v a l u a t i o n are used, l e a d i n g t o a w o r k i n g knowledge o f the format i o n of candidate e v a l u a t i o n s .
The f i r s t f a c t o r of. i m p o r t a n c e i s p a r t y .
Our s u g g e s t i o n t h a t i t i s a
c r u c i a l v a r i a b l e i s n o t e x a c t l y n o v e l . P a s t v o t i n g s t u d i e s h a v e shown t h a t
s p e c i f i c p e r c e p t i o n s o f t h e nominees a r e o f t e n expressed i n terms o f p a r t y
ties.
The a u t h o r s o f The A m e r i c a n V o t e r h a v e p a r t i c u l a r l y d e t a i l e d t h e
r e s p o n d e n t s ' l i k e s and d i s l i k e s o f t h e n o m i n e e s i n t h e s e t e r m s , m o s t n o t a b l y
i n t h e E i s e n h o w e r - S t e v e n s o n e l e c t i o n s o f 1952 and 1956.
They found t h a t p a r t y
p r o v i d e d an i m p o r t a n t b a s i s f o r t h e e v a l u a t i o n s o f t h e s e two m e n - - p e r h a p s
i n i t i a l l y i n 1952 b e c a u s e i t was one o f t h e f e w cues a v a i l a b l e t o e v a l u a t e
s u c h new p e r s o n a l i t i e s on t h e n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l s c e n e . T h e y a l s o t r a c e d '
the
i m p a c t o f p a r t y on r e a c t i o n s t o t h e p e r s o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e two
n o m i n e e s and f o u n d t h e e x p e c t e d p a r t i s a n s l o p e , a d h e r e n t s o f e a c h p a r t y
e v a l u a t i n g t h e i r p a r t y ' s c a n d i d a t e more f a v o r a b l y t h a n d i d a d h e r e n t s o f t h e
opposite party.18
The theme o f p a r t y i n f l u e n c e was c a r r i e d f u r t h e r i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e by
C o n v e r s e and Dupeux as t h e y p r o b e d t h e c o m p l e x i t i e s o f t h e E i s e n h o w e r c a s e . ^
T h e y p o i n t o u t t h a t E i s e n h o w e r was l o n g s e e n a p a r t f r o m t h e p a r t y s y s t e m and
t h a t D e m o c r a t i c l e a d e r s , a t l e a s t a t one t i m e , hoped he w o u l d r u n f o r o f f i c e
as the c a n d i d a t e o f t h e i r p a r t y .
R e a c t i o n t o h i m i n t h e 1952 c a m p a i g n was
i n f l u e n c e d by h i s e v e n t u a l c h o i c e o f t h e R e p u b l i c a n b a n n e r . Y e t C o n v e r s e and
D u p e u x a r g u e t h a t t h e r e was no r e a s o n t o f e e l t h a t a d m i r a t i o n f o r h i m had
p r e v i o u s l y f o l l o w e d p a r t i s a n l i n e s and i f E i s e n h o w e r had c h o s e n t h e D e m o c r a t i c
p a r t y , "we may assume t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p w o u l d have r o t a t e d i n t h e o p p o s i t e
direction:
s t r o n g R e p u b l i c a n s would have d e c i d e d t h e y d i s l i k e d E i s e n h o w e r . "
P a r t y was t h u s seen as a s t r o n g and i n e x o r a b l e i n f l u e n c e on t h e p e r c e p t i o n s o f
the
candidates.
_ G i v e n s u c h r e s e a r c h , one s h o u l d e x p e c t t h a t p a r t y w o u l d be a m a j o r
o r i e n t a t i o n t o t h e c a n d i d a t e s i n 1968.
A f t e r a l l , m o s t o f t h e c a n d i d a t e s had
l o n g b a c k g r o u n d s i n p a r t i s a n p o l i t i c s and were known as n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l
f i g u r e s p r i o r t o t h e 1968 c a m p a i g n .
P e o p l e l i k e Humphrey, N i x o n , and J o h n s o n
w e r e c o n s i d e r e d l e a d e r s o f t h e i r p a r t i e s a n d had a l l h e l d n a t i o n a l e l e c t i v e
°Campbell, e t a l . ,
The A m e r i c a n V o t e r ,
128-131.
19
P. E. C o n v e r s e and G. Dupeux, "De G a u l l e and E i s e n h o w e r : The P u b l i c
Image o f t h e V i c t o r i o u s G e n e r a l , " t r a n s l a t e d i n A. C a m p b e l l , P. E. C o n v e r s e ,
W. E. M i l l e r , and D. E. S t o k e s , E l e c t i o n s and t h e P o l i t i c a l O r d e r - ( N e w Y o r k :
J o h n W i l e y and Sons, 1 9 6 6 ) , 292-345.
Ibid.,
325.
W e i s b e r g and R u s k
Dimensions o f Candidate- E v a l u a t i o n
-16office.
K e n n e d y was w e l l - k n o w n as a k e y p a r t i c i p a n t i n b i s b r o t h e r ' s Democ r a t i c a d m i n i s t r a t i o n , as a D e m o c r a t i c s e n a t o r , and f o r t a k i n g h i s campaign
i n 1968. d i r e c t l y t o t h e p e o p l e .
M c C a r t h y , t o o , was a D e m o c r a t i c o f f i c e - h o l d e r
and c o n d u c t e d a q u i t e v i s i b l e c a m p a i g n i n h i s p a r t y ' s p r i m a r i e s . On t h e
R e p u b l i c a n s i d e , R o c k e f e l l e r had p a r t i c i p a t e d i n n a t i o n a l c a m p a i g n s f o r h i s
p a r t y ' s n o m i n a t i o n s i n c e 1960 and Romney, a l s o a g o v e r n o r o f a l a r g e s t a t e ,
was c o n s i d e r e d by many t o be t h e f r o n t - r u n n e r f o r h i s p a r t y ' s t o p p r i z e u n t i l
t h e s t a r t o f t h e 1968 p r i m a r y s e a s o n . R e a g a n d i d n o t mount a n a t i o n a l c a m p a i g n
b u t r e c e i v e d c o n s i d e r a b l e p u b l i c i t y as a r e s u l t o f h i s p o l i t i c a l s u c c e s s i n
California.
M u s k i e and Agnew were l e s s w e l l known n a t i o n a l l y b u t . were n a t u r a l l y
t i e d t o and i d e n t i f i e d w i t h t h e i r p a r t y ' s p r e s i d e n t i a l t i c k e t , a w a r e n e s s o f t h e m
i n c r e a s i n g as t h e c a m p a i g n p r o g r e s s e d .
O n l y W a l l a c e and LeMay p r o v i d e d a
c o n t r a s t t o t h i s g e n e r a l theme i n p u b l i c l y d i s a v o w i n g t h e t w o p a r t y s y s t e m and
r u n n i n g a t h i r d p a r t y c a m p a i g n . W i t h t h a t e x c e p t i o n , t h e c a n d i d a t e s o f 1968
had d i r e c t p a r t i s a n c o n n e c t i o n s . a n d were g e n e r a l l y f a m i l i a r i n t h a t g u i s e . I n
a v e r y r e a l s e n s e , t h e p a r t y cue was a v a i l a b l e l o n g e r t o t h e s e men t h a n t o
e i t h e r E i s e n h o w e r o r S t e v e n s o n i n 1952.
W h e t h e r t h e y a c t u a l l y were so p e r c e i v e d ,
h o w e v e r , i s a q u e s t i o n t o w h i c h we now t u r n o u r a t t e n t i o n .
Table 5 suggests the e f f e c t s o f p a r t y i d e n t i f i c a t i o n on the candidate
evaluations.
P a r t i s a n slopes are c l e a r l y e v i d e n t f o r s e v e r a l o f the candidates.
Table
5 goes h e r e
S t r o n g D e m o c r a t s gave t h e h i g h e s t mean s c o r e s t o Humphrey, M u s k i e , Kennedy,
and J o h n s o n w h i l e s t r o n g R e p u b l i c a n s gave t h e m t h e l o w e s t mean s c o r e s .
This
p a t t e r n i s e x a c t l y r e v e r s e d f o r Agnew, N i x o n , and Reagan. The d i f f e r e n c e i n
means b e t w e e n t h e s t r o n g i d e n t i f i e r g r o u p s f o r t h e s e c a n d i d a t e s i s 18-37
p e r c e n t , i n d i c a t i n g an e f f e c t o f c o n s i d e r a b l e m a g n i t u d e . These seven p a r t i s a n
c a n d i d a t e s r e p r e s e n t a m i x t u r e o f t h o s e who have been on t h e n a t i o n a l scene t h e
l o n g e s t and s h o r t e s t t i m e s .
I n .some i n s t a n c e s t h e c a n d i d a t e s h a v e l o n g been
i d e n t i f i e d w i t h t h e p a r t i e s w h i l e i n o t h e r c a s e s p a r t y i s one o f t h e few a v a i l a b l e c u e s f o r c a n d i d a t e e v a l u a t i o n . The p a t t e r n s shown f o r t h e l a t t e r t y p e o f
c a n d i d a t e a r e s i m i l a r t o t h o s e f o u n d f o r E i s e n h o w e r and S t e v e n s o n .
A marked d e p a r t u r e f r o m p a r t i s a n g u i d e l i n e s appears f o r t h e r e m a i n i n g
c a n d i d a t e s . W a l l a c e and LeMay, i n p a r t i c u l a r , were seen i n r e l a t i v e l y nonp a r t i s a n terms.
T h e i r l e v e l s o f s t r e n g t h , when weak and s t r o n g i d e n t i f i e r s o f
e a c h p a r t y a r e c o m b i n e d , a r e a b o u t t h e same among D e m o c r a t s and R e p u b l i c a n s .
B e i n g t h i r d p a r t y c a n d i d a t e s , i t i s a l s o n o t s u r p r i s i n g t h a t s u p p o r t f o r them
v a r i e d i n v e r s e l y w i t h s t r e n g t h o f p a r t y i d e n t i f i c a t i o n and t h a t , as a r e s u l t ,
t h e i r g r e a t e s t b a c k i n g came f r o m among t h o s e n o t i d e n t i f y i n g w i t h e i t h e r
major party.
The o t h e r c a n d i d a t e s - - M c C a r t h y , R o c k e f e l l e r , and R o m n e y - - r e c e i v e d
approximately equal backing from a l l classes of i d e n t i f i e r s .
T h i s means t h a t
t h e i r a p p e a l was .not s t r o n g l y p a r t i s a n and c o n s e q u e n t l y d i d n o t r e a p t h e u s u a l
advantages.of p a r t i s a n support.
T h i s f i n d i n g i s more u n u s u a l t h a n t h e W a l l a c e L e M a y p a t t e r n s i n c e t h e t h r e e had d e f i n i t e p a r t i s a n b a c k g r o u n d s and were i d e n t i f i e d w i t h the race f o r t h e i r p a r t i e s ' nominations.
What r e m a i n s t o be c o n s i d e r e d i s t h e bases o f s u p p o r t which t h e s e f i v e c a n d i d a t e s employed i n s t e a d
o f the usual p a r t i s a n appeal.
C o n v e r s e l y , i t w i l l a l s o be i m p o r t a n t t o c l a r i f y
why t h e o t h e r c a n d i d a t e s w e r e s e e n as " p a r t y p e o p l e " and t o d e t e r m i n e i n what
o t h e r ways t h e y w e r e v i e w e d
e
Dimensions
W e i s b e r g and Rusk
o f Candidate E v a l u a t i o n
Table 5
MEAN SCORES OF CANDIDATES BY PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Strong
Democrats
Weak
Democrats
Independents
Weak
Republicans
Strong
Republicans
Eta*
Humphrey
81.1
66.0
54.5
50.8
43.6
.46
Muskie
73,8
60.8
58.4
55.5
51.8
.31
Kennedy
81.9
72.7
65.8
61.2
55.5
.32
Johnson
75.7
63.3 .
51.5
48.0
42.3
.43
McCarthy
55.7
53.8
55.2
56.9
50.6
.08
Rockefeller
54.5
51.7
52.6
58.0
54.0
.09
Romney
49.5
47.4
48.3
49.1
53.8
.10
Agnew
43.8
48.3 '
50.3
56.0
61.6
.25
Nixon
54.9
61.3
66.8
77,1
84.2
.40
Reagan
41.2
46.9.
50.2
53.7
60.2
.25
LeMay
28.4
37.6
38.5
34.6
35.0
.14
Wallace
24.3
35.2,
35.5
32.1
23.6
.16
238-267
298-331
N's
•
356-381
'
163-180
125-132
*The e t a s t a t i s t i c i n d i c a t e s t h e d e g r e e o f r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n t h e
i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e ( p a r t y i d e n t i f i c a t i o n ) and. t h e c a n d i d a t e ' s r a t i n g s .
1192
1291
W e i s b e r g and Rusk
Dimensions o f Candidate E v a l u a t i o n
-17To e x p l o r e t h e s e q u e s t i o n s f u r t h e r , we h a v e e x a m i n e d t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s
b e t w e e n t h e s c o r e s g i v e n t o t h e c a n d i d a t e s and two o f t h e new i s s u e i t e m s The
f i r s t i t e m had t h e r e s p o n d e n t i n d i c a t e on a s e v e n p o i n t s c a l e w h a t he c o n s i d e r e d
t o be " t h e b e s t way t o d e a l w i t h t h e p r o b l e m o f u r b a n u n r e s t and r i o t i n g .
The
s c a l e r a n g e d f r o m . s o l v i n g t h e u n d e r l y i n g p r o b l e m s o f p o v e r t y and unemployment
a t one end t o u s i n g a l l a v a i l a b l e f o r c e a t t h e other„ T h i s " u r b a n u n r e s t "
q u e s t i o n e v o k e d some o f t h e r e s p o n d e n t ' s b a s i c f e e l i n g s t o w a r d t h e s u b j e c t s o f
l a w and o r d e r , m i l i t a n c y , c i v i l r i g h t s , and s o c i a l w e l f a r e . T a b l e 6 shows t h e
mean s c o r e s g i v e n t h e c a n d i d a t e s by a t t i t u d e s on u r b a n u n r e s t and e n a b l e s us
t o l o o k f o r " i s s u e s l o p e s " i n t h e same manner t h a t we l o o k e d f o r p a r t i s a n s l o p e s
i n the previous t a b l e . 1
1 1
Table
6 goes h e r e
The d a t a i n t h e t a b l e i n d i c a t e t h a t some o f t h e more p a r t i s a n c a n d i d a t e s
w e r e a l s o seen i n i s s u e t e r m s .
F o r i n s t a n c e , Humphrey, K e n n e d y , and J o h n s o n
w e r e e v a l u a t e d more h i g h l y by t h o s e i n f a v o r o f s o l v i n g t h e p r o b l e m s o f o u r
d o m e s t i c l i f e b y s o c i a l j u s t i c e i n s t e a d o f l a w and o r d e r *
Muskie also f o l l o w e d
s u i t , b u t n o t as much so as h i s D e m o c r a t i c c o l l e a g u e s .
Of t h e p a r t i s a n Republ i c a n s , Reagan was l i k e d m o s t by t h o s e a d v o c a t i n g t h e use o f a l l a v a i l a b l e f o r c e ,
t h o u g h t h e d i f f e r e n c e i s n o t a s i z a b l e one.
N i x o n and Agnew, on b a l a n c e , a l s o
l e a n e d t o w a r d t h e " l a w and o r d e r " s i d e , b u t t h e i r s t r e n g t h i s n e a r l y c o n s t a n t
across the continuum.
Such s l o p e s show t h a t t h e s t r e n g t h o f t h e i s s u e f a c t o r
v a r i e d f o r t h e p a r t i s a n c a n d i d a t e s , a l t h o u g h e a c h c a n d i d a t e was e v a l u a t e d h i g h e r
on
one s i d e o f t h e c o n t i n u u m t h a n t h e o t h e r . A c o m p a r i s o n o f t h e s e r e s u l t s
w i t h T a b l e 5 r e v e a l s t h a t t h e u r b a n u n r e s t i s s u e i s n o t as i m p o r t a n t as p a r t y
i n i t s . e f f e c t s on t h i s s e t o f c a n d i d a t e r a t i n g s . ^ 2
Perhaps the most i n t e r e s t i n g p a t t e r n s i n the t a b l e concern the c a n d i d a t e s
lacking partisan ties.
I s s u e c o l o r a t i o n s were e v i d e n t f o r most o f these
individuals.
W a l l a c e and LeMay, i n p a r t i c u l a r , w e r e s u p p o r t e d by t h o s e w a n t i n g
a l l a v a i l a b l e f o r c e w i t h a s t r o n g s l o p e t o w a r d t h e o p p o s i t e e n d . The d i f f e r e n c e
i n means f o r W a l l a c e b e t w e e n t h e two e x t r e m e c a t e g o r i e s was 33 p e r c e n t , t h e
l a r g e s t such d i f f e r e n c e i n t h e t a b l e .
M c C a r t h y , b y c o n t r a s t , was seen as a
l i b e r a l w i t h a d e f i n i t e t e n d e n c y e x i s t i n g f o r p e o p l e t o e v a l u a t e h i m , as
H u m p h r e y , Kennedy, and J o h n s o n , on t h e s o c i a l j u s t i c e end o f t h e u r b a n c o n tinuum.
R o c k e f e l l e r and Romney a l s o d i d b e s t on t h e s o c i a l j u s t i c e s i d e ,
t h o u g h t h e d i f f e r e n c e s a r e n o t l a r g e w h i c h may be due, i n p a r t , t o t h e i r
five
The s e v e n p o i n t s c a l e s on t h i s and t h e n e x t i s s u e w e r e c o l l a p s e d
p o i n t s c a l e s by c o m b i n i n g t h e two e x t r e m e p o s i t i o n s a t e a c h end*
into
22
I n o r d e r t o gauge t h e r e l a t i v e i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e s e e f f e c t s , i t i s
n e c e s s a r y t o c o n s i d e r t h e s l o p e s , t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f c a s e s on t h e i s s u e and
p a r t y v a r i a b l e s , and t h e c u r v i l i n e a r t e n d e n c i e s f o r some o f t h e c a n d i d a t e s .
The e t a c o e f f i c i e n t t a k e s a l l o f t h e s e m a t t e r s i n t o a c c o u n t and, h e n c e , f o r m s
t h e b a s i s f o r our judgments o f r e l a t i v e i m p o r t a n c e .
When s q u a r e d , i t r e l a t e s
t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f v a r i a n c e i n a c a n d i d a t e ' s r a t i n g s e x p l a i n e d by a g i v e n f a c t o r .
E t a v a l u e s f o r two v a r i a b l e s c a n be c o m p a r e d t o a s c e r t a i n w h i c h f a c t o r , i s s u e
o r p a r t y , i s t h e more i m p o r t a n t f o r t h e c a n d i d a t e o f c o n c e r n .
Dimensions
W e i s b e r g and Rusk
o f Candidate E v a l u a t i o n
Table 6
MEAN SCORES OF CANDIDATES BY ATTITUDES ON URBAN UNREST
Solve problems o f
p o v e r t y and u n e m p l o y m e n t
Use a l l
available force
Eta
Humphrey
71.5
67.7
59.1
51.7
50.2
.32
Muskie
66.2
66.8
60.4
55.6
54.2
.22
Kennedy
78.6
72.3
67.5
59.3
61.0
.28
Johnson
64.8
62.3
58.7
49.8
48.9
.24
McCarthy
60.0
58.. 3
52.3
52.0
50.2
.18
Rockefeller
56.0
56.6
54.7
. 50.6
49.6
.12
Romney
48.9
52.6
51.6
48.3
43.9
.16
Agnew
48.6
48.5
51.3
52.6
51.4
.07
Nixon
63.2
63.9
68.8
69.9
66.8
.11
Reagan
43.2
47.4
51.3
51.4
54.3
.19
LeMay
26.3
30.5
35.1
37.9
47.7
.29
Wallace
18.2
24.4
28.9
38.5
51.1
.39
358-389
124-129
343-369
115-126
224-249
11731261
N's
W e i s b e r g and R u s k
Dimensions of Candidate E v a l u a t i o n
-18l o w e r l e v e l o f s a l i e n c y among t h e p u b l i c .
The s c o r e s g i v e n t o t h e s e f i v e
c a n d i d a t e s have a g r e a t e r r e l a t i o n t o t h i s d i m e n s i o n t h a n t o p a r t y i d e n t i f i c a tion.
The o v e r a l l p u b l i c r a n k i n g o f t h e s e and t h e o t h e r c a n d i d a t e s a l o n g t h i s
d i m e n s i o n f i t s v e r y w e l l w i t h t h e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s g i v e n by p o l i t i c a l commentators.
I n some c a s e s we a r e n o t d e a l i n g , w i t h l a r g e e f f e c t s , b u t t h e r e i s e v i d e n c e t h a t t h i s d i m e n s i o n was q u i t e s a l i e n t t o t h e p u b l i c and t h a t t h e y c o u l d
a c c u r a t e l y l o c a t e t h e c a n d i d a t e s , on i t .
The o t h e r o v e r r i d i n g i s s u e i n 1968 was c e r t a i n l y t h e V i e t n a m war.
Following
a f o r m a t s i m i l a r t o t h e u r b a n u n r e s t q u e s t i o n , r e s p o n d e n t s were a s k e d w h a t a c t i o n
t h e y f e l t the United States should take i n Vietnam.
The c h o i c e s r a n g e d f r o m
i m m e d i a t e w i t h d r a w a l a t one end t o w i n n i n g a c o m p l e t e m i l i t a r y v i c t o r y a t t h e
other.
T a b l e 7 shows t h e mean s c o r e s g i v e n t h e c a n d i d a t e s by a t t i t u d e s on
V i e t n a m . The war g e n e r a l l y a f f e c t e d r a t i n g s o f t h e p a r t i s a n c a n d i d a t e s l e s s
T a b l e 7 goes h e r e
t h a n d i d e i t h e r p a r t y or urban i s s u e s .
S t i l l , some d i f f e r e n c e s on V i e t n a m d i d
a p p e a r among t h e p a r t i s a n s w i t h h i g h e r r a t i n g s f o r Kennedy among t h e " d o v e s "
and somewhat h i g h e r s c o r e s f o r Reagan and Agnew among t h e "hawks." Humphrey
a n d , t o a l e s s e r e x t e n t , M u s k i e f a r e d b e t t e r on t h e d o v e s i d e , b u t t h e i r
r a t i n g s f e l l o f f a t the extreme. Johnson manifested another p a t t e r n — t h o s e i n
t h e m i d d l e o f t h e s c a l e l i k e d h i m m o s t and t h e n h i s s u p p o r t t r a i l e d o f f as one
moves t o t h e more e x t r e m e c a t e g o r i e s . T h i s f i t s w e l l w i t h J o h n s o n ' s " m i d d l e o f - t h e - r o a d " h a n d l i n g o f t h e war and i n d e e d t h e two e x t r e m e s o f t h i s s c a l e were
i n t e n d e d as a l t e r n a t i v e s t o h i s p o l i c i e s .
The p a t t e r n o f N i x o n ' s s u p p o r t was
a l s o u n i q u e ; he f o u n d f a v o r among t h o s e w a n t i n g a m i l d change i n war p l a n s i n
some d i r e c t i o n b u t w h i c h d i r e c t i o n made r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e d i f f e r e n c e . H i s
a n n o u n c e m e n t o f a " p l a n t o end t h e w a r " w i t h o u t i n d i c a t i n g t h e n a t u r e o f t h a t
p l a n appears t o have pleased t h e m o d e r a t e s d i s s a t i s f i e d w i t h p r e s e n t p o l i c i e s
b u t n o t w i s h i n g t o change t h e s e p o l i c i e s d r a s t i c a l l y .
V i e t n a m a t t i t u d e s t e n d t o h a v e more i m p a c t on t h e r a t i n g s o f t h e r e m a i n i n g c a n d i d a t e s t h a n p a r t y and a r e a l m o s t on a p a r w i t h t h o s e on t h e u r b a n
issue.
L e a d i n g o f f t h i s p a r a d e o f e f f e c t s a r e W a l l a c e and LeMay who a r e once
a g a i n f o u n d a t one o f t h e e x t r e m i t i e s o f t h e c o n t i n u u m .
The two d e f i n i t e l y
show t h e s t r o n g e s t i s s u e s l o p e on t h e " h a w k i s h " s i d e o f t h e V i e t n a m q u e s t i o n ,
p o i n t i n g up t h e way i n w h i c h t h e y e m b o d i e d t h e i s s u e scene o f 1968.
Evaluat i o n s o f M c C a r t h y w e r e a l s o a f f e c t e d by a t t i t u d e s on t h e war w i t h t h e S e n a t o r
r e c e i v i n g h i s g r e a t e s t s u p p o r t among t h o s e w i s h i n g i m m e d i a t e w i t h d r a w a l f r o m
Vietnam.
T h e r e i s e v e r y i n d i c a t i o n h e r e t h a t h i s c a n d i d a c y w a s - v i s i b l e and t h a t
he d i d s u c c e e d i n t y i n g i t t o t h e war i s s u e . R o c k e f e l l e r ' s and Romney's p a t t e r n s
a r e more a m b i g u o u s , a g a i n p o s s i b l y due t o t h e i r l o w e r l e v e l o f s a l i e n c y .
Romney's b e s t s t a n d i n g was among t h o s e f a v o r i n g " m i d d l e - o f - t h e - r o a d " p o l i c i e s
-toward t h e w a r , p o s s i b l y s u g g e s t i n g t h a t he e x p e r i e n c e d d i f f i c u l t y i n communic a t i n g h i s war p o s i t i o n t o t h e p u b l i c .
R o c k e f e l l e r ' s v i r t u a l s i l e n c e on t h e
war may e x p l a i n t h e i r r e g u l a r i t i e s i n h i s p a t t e r n o f s u p p o r t , t h o u g h he
d e f i n i t e l y d i d g a r n e r g r e a t e r b a c k i n g among d o v e s . B a s i c a l l y t h e d a t a f i t
u s u a l statements o f the twelve candidates' p o l i c i e s q u i t e w e l l .
The e f f e c t s
o f V i e t n a m a t t i t u d e s t e n d t o be s m a l l e r t h a n t h o s e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h u r b a n
Dimensions
W e i s b e r g and Rusk
o f Candidate E v a l u a t i o n
Table 7
MEAN SCORES OF CANDIDATES BY ATTITUDES ON VIETNAM
Immedlate
Comp l e t e
Withdrawal
Military. Victory
Eta
Humphrey
64.4
65.8
64.8
63.1
53.3
.19
Muskie
62.5
63.5
63.0
63.0
57.0
.12
Kennedy
76.3
73.2
70.6
67.2
62.6
.20
Johnson
57.0
60.8
62.6
58.8
53.3
.14
McCarthy
61.5
58.9
55.6
52.5
49.6
.20
Rockefeller
54.0
59.1
55.2
55.8
50.3
.12
Romney
46.7
51.5
51.3
47.0
.12
Agnew
46.8
49.1
50.8
51.6
52.4
.10
Nixon
61.9
69.1
67.1
68.5
67.0
.11
Reagan
43.0
47.6
49.4
51.8
52.4
.16
LeMay
26.4
28,4
31.8
33.9
45.0
.27
Wallace
21.8
20.5
25.7.
45.1
.31
95rl01
346-369
336-357
1152
1234
N's
246-275
. 50.2
. 30.8
125-133
W e i s b e r g and R u s k
Dimensions o f Candidate E v a l u a t i o n
-19p r o b l e m s , b u t t h i s may w e l l be e x p l a i n e d b y s m a l l e r d i f f e r e n c e s b e t w e e n t h e
c a n d i d a t e s and l e s s , c l a r i t y on t h e i r p a r t i n -the s t a t e m e n t o f e x a c t p o s i t i o n s
on t h e war.
The d a t a p r e s e n t e d h e r e show t h a t some o f t h e c a n d i d a t e s n o t seen i n
p a r t i s a n terms are i n s t e a d a s s o c i a t e d w i t h the issues o f t h e t i m e s .
I n order
f o r a c a n d i d a t e t o become s t r o n g l y i d e n t i f i e d w i t h .an i s s u e p o s i t i o n , i t i s
n e c e s s a r y f o r h i m t o be s a l i e n t t o t h e p u b l i c and f o r h i m t o t a k e a d e f i n i t e
s t a n d on- t h e i s s u e . W a l l a c e and LeMay p r o v i d e t h e s t r o n g e s t c o n t r a s t s i n . d a t a
p a t t e r n i n g s s i n c e t h e y w e r e n o t p a r t i s a n c a n d i d a t e s .and d i d become s t r o n g l y
i d e n t i f i e d w i t h t h e i m p o r t a n t i s s u e s . M c C a r t h y , R o c k e f e l l e r , and Romney a l s o
w e r e d i f f e r e n t i a t e d o n i s s u e b a s e s , t h o u g h n o t as s t r o n g l y so as W a l l a c e and
LeMay b e c a u s e o f t h e i r l o w e r s a l i e n c e and t h e i r l e s s d e f i n i t e p o s i t i o n s on .some
issues.
W h i l e an e l i t e a u d i e n c e , w o u l d g e n e r a l l y r e c o g n i z e s h a r p e r i s s u e p o s i t i o n s f o r t h e s e t h r e e c a n d i d a t e s , t h e i r l i m i t e d s a l i e n c e t o t h e mass p u b l i c
dampened p u b l i c p e r c e p t i o n s , o f t h e s e p o s i t i o n s so t h a t o n l y r e l a t i v e l y m i l d
r e v e r b e r a t i o n s o f t h e i r issue stands are e v i d e n t i n the d a t a .
Among t h e p a r t i s a n c a n d i d a t e s , i s s u e s w e r e n o t a l w a y s r e l e v a n t , b u t .some
c o n t r a s t s do a p p e a r . The D e m o c r a t i c h a r d c o r e - - K e n n e d y , J o h n s o n , Humphrey, and
M u s k i e - - r e g i s t e r e d m o d e r a t e i s s u e e f f e c t s , p a r t i c u l a r l y on s o l u t i o n s , t o u r b a n
problems.
Reagan a l o n e among t h e R e p u b l i c a n c a n d i d a t e s was s e e n i n f a i r l y
d i s t i n c t issue terms.
But g e n e r a l l y assessments of the p a r t i s a n candidates
w e r e n o t n e c e s s a r i l y b a s e d on c u r r e n t i s s u e s w h e r e a s t h e e v a l u a t i o n s o f t h e
n o n - p a r t y c a n d i d a t e s w e r e r e l a t e d .to such i s s u e s . T h a t i s s u e s c a n be o f t h e
same o r d e r o f i m p o r t a n c e as p a r t y i n d e t e r m i n i n g a t t i t u d e s -toward c a n d i d a t e s ,
even candidates f o r the nominations of the major p a r t i e s , i s s i g n i f i c a n t .
The i m p a c t o f p a r t y and i s s u e f a c t o r s o n p e r c e p t i o n s o f t h e c a n d i d a t e s
h a s b e e n n o t e d and d e t a i l e d .
The n e x t step- i s t o s u g g e s t c o n d i t i o n s u n d e r w h i c h
t h e s e two f a c t o r s o p e r a t e i n t h e m o l d i n g o f c a n d i d a t e o r i e n t a t i o n .
P a r t y seems
t o be a u s e f u l cue f o r c a n d i d a t e e v a l u a t i o n when t h e i n d i v i d u a l i s a new c a n d i d a t e w i t h o u t w e l l - k n o w n p o l i c y s t a n d s , as i n t h e case o f E i s e n h o w e r , S t e v e n s o n ,
Agnew, and M u s k i e .
P a r t y w i l l a l s o l o o m i m p o r t a n t as a d e t e r m i n a n t o f r a t i n g s
w h e n t h e c a n d i d a t e i s a w e l l - k n o w n n a t i o n a l l e a d e r o f h i s p a r t y , e.g., Humphrey,
N i x o n , J o h n s o n , and K e n n e d y . The c a n d i d a t e s o f t h e m a j o r p a r t i e s may s t i l l be
p e r c e i v e d i n i s s u e as w e l l as p a r t y t e r m s , a s . w i t h Kennedy and Reagan t h o u g h
we f i n d t h e m v i e w e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y more i n t h e l a t t e r t h a n i n t h e f o r m e r v e i n .
C a n d i d a c i e s based m a i n l y on i s s u e s a r e a l s o p o s s i b l e , e v e n i n t h e m a j o r p a r t i e s .
A c a n d i d a t e w i t h o u t a d e c i d e d l y p a r t i s a n n a t i o n a l r e p u t a t i o n may d i s t i n g u i s h
h i m s e l f on an i s s u e b a s i s , w i t h l i t t l e r e g a r d t o c o n v e n t i o n a l p a r t y l i n e s .
W a l l a c e and LeMay d e m o n s t r a t e t h i s p o s s i b i l i t y as t h i r d p a r t y c a n d i d a t e s .
M c C a r t h y and, t o a l e s s e r e x t e n t , R o c k e f e l l e r and Romney. a l s o t e n d t o e x h i b i t
-the p a t t e r n i n g o f an i s s u e - b a s e d c a n d i d a t e .
The c o n d i t i o n s m a k i n g s u c h i s s u e
c a n d i d a c i e s , v i a b l e r e m a i n -to be c o n s i d e r e d .
Weisberg and Rusk
Dimensions o f Candidate E v a l u a t i o n
-20AN ERA
OF
INCREASING IDEOLOGICAL. FOCUS
Two i d e a l types o f " i d e o l o g i c a l f o c u s " have been d i s t i n g u i s h e d by Donald
E. Stokes. Some p e r i o d s o f time can be c h a r a c t e r i z e d by " s t r o n g i d e o l o g i c a l
f o c u s " w i t h p o l i t i c a l c o n t r o v e r s y "focused on a s i n g l e , s t a b l e issue domain
w h i c h presents an ordered-dimension t h a t i s p e r c e i v e d in. common terms by
l e a d e r s and f o l l o w e r s . " By c o n t r a s t , a p e r i o d o f "weak i d e o l o g i c a l f o c u s "
would be one i n which p o l i t i c a l c o n f l i c t i s " d i f f u s e d over a number o f changing
i s s u e concerns which r a r e l y present p o s i t i o n - d i m e n s i o n s and which are perceived
i n d i f f e r e n t ways by d i f f e r e n t p o l i t i c a l a c t o r s . " 2 3 i h e n a t u r e o f c a n d i d a c i e s
i s b a s i c a l l y dependent on the degree o f i d e o l o g i c a l focus; v i a b l e issue c a n d i d a c i e s r e q u i r e the sharp issue c o n f l i c t s o f p e r i o d s o f s t r o n g i d e o l o g i c a l focus.
T h i s e l e c t i o n must be viewed i n the broader p e r s p e c t i v e o f the n a t u r e o f p a r t y
c o n f l i c t i n the l a s t g e n e r a t i o n i n order t o determine the impetus f o r issue
c a n d i d a c i e s i n 1968.
T h i s w i l l lead us t o an u l t i m a t e c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f the
f u t u r e shape o f p a r t y c o m p e t i t i o n .
The contemporary p e r i o d has been t y p i f i e d by the c o n d i t i o n s of. weak
i d e o l o g i c a l focus and t h i s i s p a r t i c u l a r l y t r u e o f the 1950 Vs. While t h e r e
were " i s s u e s " o f a s o r t i n t h a t decade, t h e y tended not t o be p o s i t i o n issues.
One doubts whether the p u b l i c p e r c e i v e d the Taft-Eisenhower c o n t e s t i n 1952,
t h e Stevenson, Kefauver, R u s s e l l , Harriman, and B a r k l e y c o n t e s t s of 1952 and
1956, or the Eisenhower-Stevenson e l e c t i o n s i n s t r o n g issue terms.
I n particul a r Eisenhower and Stevenson d i d not emerge on the n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l scene as
t h e embodiments o f s t r o n g issue p o s i t i o n s . I n p e r i o d s of weak i d e o l o g i c a l
f o c u s , one expects t h a t the candidates w i l l be more party-based than i s s u e based. The c a n d i d a t e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y the new candidates, w i t h o u t a p a r t i s a n
r e p u t a t i o n , w i l l be more p o s i t i v e l y e v a l u a t e d by the i d e n t i f i e r s o f t h e i r own
p a r t y since t h e r e are few c o m p e t i t i v e cues a v a i l a b l e .
The degree o f i d e o l o g i c a l focus of American p o l i t i c s has been low since
t h e p e r i o d o f the New Deal.
"Then, more t h a n now, the i n t e r v e n t i o n o f government i n the domestic economy and r e l a t e d s o c i a l problems p r o v i d e d a p o s i t i o n d i m e n s i o n t h a t c o u l d organize the c o m p e t i t i o n o f p a r t i e s and the m o t i v a t i o n o f
e l e c t o r s . " ^ What i s remarkable i s t h a t the .social w e l f a r e q u e s t i o n s which
r e a l i g n e d the p a r t i e s i n the 1930's s t i l l c o n s t i t u t e the b a s i s o f p a r t y i d e n t i f i c a t i o n r e g a r d l e s s o f the many changes i n our l i f e since t h e n . The s t a b i l i t y
o f p a r t i s a n l o y a l t i e s i s such t h a t i t does not change u n t i l the circumstances
o f the day f o r c e such a change.
The s t a b i l i t y o f p a r t i s a n s h i p a t the mass l e v e l has a p a r a l l e l among the
p a r t y l e a d e r s . The e l e c t o r a t e m a i n t a i n s i t s l o y a l t i e s , i n p a r t , because the
p a r t y l e a d e r s keep t h e i r d o c t r i n e s r e l a t i v e l y f i x e d . The p a r t i e s o r i g i n a l l y
* D. E. Stokes, " S p a t i a l Models o f P a r t y C o m p e t i t i o n , " 376. " P o s i t i o n d i m e n s i o n s " i n v o l v e dimensions o f c o n f l i c t on which p o l i t i c a l a c t o r s - - v o t e r s
and p a r t i e s - - c a n and do take d i f f e r e n t p o l i c y stands.
J
2 4
ibid.
Weisberg and Rusk
Dimensions o f Candidate E v a l u a t i o n
-21became d i f f e r e n t i a t e d w i t h r e s p e c t t o c e r t a i n i s s u e s , such as s o c i a l w e l f a r e .
The d i f f e r e n c e s on these issues are m a i n t a i n e d by the p a r t i e s i n order t o keep
t h e i r u n d e r l y i n g group support, though these d i f f e r e n c e s may be muted i n order
t o g a i n e l e c t o r a l advantage.
I t i s i n p e r i o d s o f s t r o n g i d e o l o g i c a l focus, when t h i s s t a b i l i t y i s most
s e r i o u s l y t h r e a t e n e d . A set of i s s u e s may accumulate w i t h l i t t l e regard t o
c o n v e n t i o n a l p a r t y l i n e s . The p a r t i e s tend t o a v o i d involvement w i t h new
p o s i t i o n issues f o r f e a r of l o s i n g t h e i r base o f s u p p o r t , i n s t e a d maneuvering
to e s t a b l i s h somewhat s i m i l a r p o s i t i o n s on these i s s u e s . T h i s a l l o w s minor
p a r t i e s t o take advantage o f the new i s s u e s , a t l e a s t f o r the s h o r t r u n . • I f
the new p o s i t i o n issues p e r m i t the minor p a r t i e s t o make a n o t i c e a b l e dent i n t o
the normal v o t e o f the major p a r t i e s and i f f u r t h e r m o r e these issues do not
show signs of r e c e d i n g , the major p a r t i e s s h i f t t h e i r stands on these i s s u e s .
The r e s u l t i n g changes i n group l o y a l t i e s betoken a r e a l i g n m e n t o f the p a r t i e s ,
.Those f i r s t j o i n i n g the e l e c t o r a t e d u r i n g a p e r i o d o f s t r o n g i d e o l o g i c a l focus
are l e s s t i e d t o t r a d i t i o n a l p a r t y l i n e s and are o f t e n most a f f e c t e d by the new
i s s u e s ; thus the a d d i t i o n o f young v o t e r s t o the system can help p r o v i d e the
momentum needed f o r a r e a l i g n m e n t . Issue-based c a n d i d a c i e s are more l i k e l y i n
a p e r i o d o f s t r o n g i d e o l o g i c a l f o c u s ; the a c t u a l n o m i n a t i o n of an issue-based
candidate by a major p a r t y can p r o v i d e the f i n a l spur needed f o r the r e a l i g n ment t o take p l a c e . Our p o l i t i c a l system i s s t a b l e because few issues are o f
the magnitude necessary t o cause a r e a l i g n m e n t , but they are not t o t a l l y absent
from t h e p o l i t i c a l scene.
C i v i l r i g h t s i s one issue which c o u l d cause a r e a l i g n m e n t . I t formed the
b a s i s o f a r e g i o n a l t h i r d - p a r t y movement back i n 1948, but no l a s t i n g change
r e s u l t e d . The Supreme Court o p i n i o n s of the 1950's increased the immediacy o f
the i s s u e . The major p a r t i e s f i r s t became a c t i v e l y i n v o l v e d i n the issue i n
the 1964 e l e c t i o n , but the b a s i c problem c o u l d s t i l l be g e o g r a p h i c a l l y i s o l a t e d .
By the 1968 e l e c t i o n , however, c i v i l r i g h t s was a n a t i o n a l problem. Furthermore
the c i v i l r i g h t s problem f i t i n t o a more g e n e r a l syndrome which a l s o i n c l u d e d
r i o t s i n the urban g h e t t o , campus u n r e s t , p r o t e s t s a g a i n s t the Vietnam war,
d i s o r d e r s on the s t r e e t s of Chicago d u r i n g the Democratic c o n v e n t i o n , and the
g e n e r a l "law and o r d e r " theme. The e s t a b l i s h m e n t candidates i n the major
p a r t i e s d i d not take s h a r p l y d i f f e r e n t p o s i t i o n s on these i s s u e s , basing t h e i r
appeals i n s t e a d on c o n v e n t i o n a l issues and p a r t y t i e s . . N e i t h e r the Republicans
nor the Democrats moved t o a p o s i t i o n on the new i s s u e s which would s a t i s f y the
e x t r e m i s t s on e i t h e r s i d e , though t h e i r d i f f e r e n c e s on the core c i v i l r i g h t s
problem were s u f f i c i e n t f o r b l a c k Americans t o have no doubt as t o t h e i r
direction.
The echoes o f these developments are e v i d e n t i n our d a t a . We have found
t h a t a new set o f issues has emerged, q u i t e d i s t i n c t from.both s o c i a l w e l f a r e
and p a r t y i d e n t i f i c a t i o n . The c i v i l r i g h t s issue o f the p r e v i o u s decade prov i d e s t h e core o f t h i s new issue c l u s t e r , but f u r t h e r domestic and f o r e i g n
problems are now a s s o c i a t e d w i t h i t . The independence o f t h i s new set o f
i s s u e s from the t r a d i t i o n a l concerns was p a r t i c u l a r l y e v i d e n t i n the c a n d i d a t e /
a t t i t u d e space o f F i g u r e 3. Since a new p o s i t i o n - d i m e n s i o n emerged a t the mass
A c l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f e l e c t i o n s i n terms o f m a i n t a i n i n g , d e v i a t i n g , and
r e a l i g n i n g e l e c t i o n s i s g i v e n i n A. Campbell, e t a l . , The American V o t e r ,
531-538.
Weisberg and Rusk
Dimensions o f Candidate E v a l u a t i o n
-22l e v e l w i t h o u t the nominees o f the major p a r t i e s t a k i n g v e r y d i f f e r e n t stands
on i t , a minor p a r t y emerged a t one end o f the dimension. Candidates a s s o c i a t e d
w i t h the l i b e r a l end o f t h i s dimension u n s u c c e s s f u l l y contested f o r t h e i r part i e s ' n o m i n a t i o n s , but chose not t o take t h e i r f i g h t t o the e l e c t o r a t e w i t h a
f o u r t h p a r t y movement, a t l e a s t not i n 1968.
I f our statement o f the development o f a new issue area independent of
c o n v e n t i o n a l p a r t y l i n e s i s c o r r e c t , we are l e f t s p e c u l a t i n g as t o the shape
of t h e p o l i t i c a l f u t u r e . The new issues c o u l d recede i n urgency by 1972.
T h i s c o u l d occur w i t h r e f e r e n c e t o Vietnam, but seems l e s s probable w i t h regard
t o the o t h e r i s s u e s . I t i s always p o s s i b l e t h a t the c i v i l r i g h t s problem w i l l
become l e s s u r g e n t f o r a s h o r t p e r i o d o f t i m e , b u t the l o n g - t e r m t r e n d seems t o
be one o f g r e a t e r urgency. P r o t e s t , the c o m p l a i n t s o f y o u t h , and the law and
o r d e r theme are l i k e l y t o become f a m i l i a r p a r t s o f the p o l i t i c a l landscape.
I f indeed the issues do m a i n t a i n t h e i r l e v e l o f urgency, we may see some
e f f o r t s toward p a r t y r e a l i g n m e n t by the 1972 e l e c t i o n . E f f o r t s : toward r e f o r m
of Democratic p a r t y procedures are a l r e a d y s u g g e s t i n g the f e a s i b i l i t y of such
a realignment.
The changes i n the p o l i t i c a l h o r i z o n have a p a r t i c u l a r l y i m p o r t a n t e f f e c t
on the youth. Many have been d i r e c t l y a f f e c t e d by the new issues and a l l have
witnessed a more v i g o r o u s p o l i t i c a l c l i m a t e t h a n t h a t o f the p r e v i o u s generat i o n . Not h a v i n g l o n g p a r t i c i p a t e d i n the p o l i t i c a l system, they tend t o be
l e s s f i r m l y i d e n t i f i e d w i t h a p a r t y and l e s s f i r m l y committed t o the p a r t i e s
t h a n are t h e i r e l d e r s . The t h r e e p a r t y race o f 1968 along w i t h the new issue
dimension and the issue c a n d i d a c i e s may have f u r t h e r delayed the f i r s t r e a l
commitment t o the p a r t y system f o r many young a d u l t s . As a r e s u l t the p o o l o f
young v o t e r s who may e n t e r the p o l i t i c a l system f o r the f i r s t time i n t h e 1972
e l e c t i o n i n c l u d e s more t h a n the u s u a l number o f delayed e n t r i e s . A d d i t i o n a l l y
t h a t p o o l w i l l be l a r g e r than i n most r e c e n t years because of the e f f e c t s o f the
post-war "baby boom." That many of the new young v o t e r s w i l l be v e t e r a n s o f the
Vietnam c o n f l i c t i n t r o d u c e s another note o f u n c e r t a i n t y . Taken t o g e t h e r these
elements p o i n t t o a p o t e n t i a l i n c r e a s e i n the f l u i d i t y i n the e l e c t o r a l system
i n 1972.
Thus the 1964 and 1968 e l e c t i o n s c o u l d w e l l c o n s t i t u t e the p r e l u d e f o r a
s e r i e s of changes o f a scope more v a s t t h a n v o t i n g s t u d i e s have become accustomed. A d e v i a t i n g e l e c t i o n such as 1968 may mark the ending o f a p o l i t i c a l
era, though i t would be. too e a r l y t o suggest the o u t l i n e o f a new one.
In
p a r t i c u l a r , the seeming s t a b i l i t y o f p a r t y i d e n t i f i c a t i o n may j u s t mask an
i n c r e a s i n g i r r e l e v a n c e of t r a d i t i o n a l p a r t y t i e s d u r i n g a p e r i o d of growing
i d e o l o g i c a l focus when some of those t i e s are becoming unhinged.
This e l e c t i o n
was marked by events h a v i n g t h e o r e t i c a l importance--a new issue dimension
developed, issue candidates emerged i n t h e major p a r t i e s , and a t h i r d p a r t y
made a s i z a b l e showing. The v o t i n g p a t t e r n s o f s i g n i f i c a n t groups i n t h e e l e c t o r a t e , p a r t i c u l a r l y b l a c k s , seem d e s t i n e d f o r a m e a n i n g f u l change f r o m t h e i r
p a t t e r n s i n the 1950's. Only t i m e - w i l l t e l l whether a l a s t i n g r e o r i e n t a t i o n
o f American p o l i t i c s , occurs a l o n g these l i n e s , but a c o n s i d e r a b l e change i n
the panorama o f American p o l i t i c s seems l i k e l y even i f a f u l l r e a l i g n m e n t i s
.avoided.
There are two major d i m e n s i o n a l antecedents o f candidate e v a l u a t i o n .
P a r t y p r o v i d e s a b a s i c d i m e n s i o n a l antecedent, e s p e c i a l l y d u r i n g p e r i o d s of
Weisberg and Rusk
Dimensions o f Candidate E v a l u a t i o n
-23weak i d e o l o g i c a l focus, when people unknown on the n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l scene are
nominated by t h e i r p a r t i e s and also, when t h e p a r t y l e a d e r s f i g h t a r e a r - g u a r d
a c t i o n a g a i n s t a r e a l i g n m e n t o f the p a r t i e s along the l i n e s o f the issues of
the day.
However, t h e r e i s a l s o room.for issue dimensions, p a r t i c u l a r l y i n
p e r i o d s o f s t r o n g i d e o l o g i c a l f o c u s . Minor p a r t i e s may grow up a t the poles
o f such issue dimensions, though one would expect r e a l i g n m e n t o f the major
p a r t i e s i f those issue dimensions remain v i g o r o u s f o r any p e r i o d o f t i m e .
P a r t y and issues thus p r o v i d e two b a s i c mechanisms, o f c a n d i d a t e e v a l u a t i o n .
I n 1968 we had both party-based candidates and issue-based c a n d i d a t e s , a
f a c t which i n i t s e l f may be q u i t e s u g g e s t i v e o f the f u t u r e of American
politics.
Weisberg and Rusk
Dimensions o f Candidate E v a l u a t i o n
-24APPENDIX
As you know, t h e r e were many people mentioned t h i s past year as p o s s i b l e
candidates f o r P r e s i d e n t by the p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s . We would l i k e t o get your
f e e l i n g s t o w a r d .some o f these people.
I have here a card (INTERVIEWER HANDS OVER CARD #5) on which t h e r e i s
.something t h a t looks, l i k e a thermometer. .We c a l l i t a " f e e l i n g thermometer"
because i t measures your f e e l i n g s towards these people. You p r o b a b l y remember
t h a t we used something l i k e t h i s i n our e a r l i e r i n t e r v i e w w i t h you.
Here ' s how i t works. I f you don't f e e l p a r t i c u l a r l y warm or c o l d toward
a person, t h e n you should place h i m i n the middle o f the thermometer, a t t h e
50. degree mark.
I f you have a warm f e e l i n g toward a person, o r f e e l f a v o r a b l y toward
him, you would g i v e him a score somewhere between 50° and 100°, depending
on how warm your f e e l i n g i s toward t h a t person.
On the o t h e r hand, i f you don't f e e l v e r y f a v o r a b l y toward a person-t h a t i s , i f you don't care too much f o r him--then you would place h i m somewhere between 0° and 50°.
Of course, i f you don't know too much about a person, j u s t t e l l me and
w e ' l l go on t o the next name.
Our f i r s t person i s George Wallace.
thermometer.
INTERVIEWER:
Where would you put him on the
TAKE SOME TIME TO EXPLAIN HOW THE THERMOMETER WORKS,. SHOWING
R THE WAY IN WHICH THE DEGREE LABELS CAN HELP HIM TO LOCATE
AN INDIVIDUAL, SUCH AS GEORGE WALLACE.
Rating
Rating
a. George Wallace
g. Lyndon Johnson
b. Hubert Humphrey
h. George Romney
c. R i c h a r d Nixon
i . Robert Kennedy
d. Eugene McCarthy
j . Edmund Muskie
e. Ronald Reagan
k. S p i r o Agnew
f . Nelson R o c k e f e l l e r
1. C u r t i s LeMay
Weisberg and Rusk
Dimensions o f Candidate E v a l u a t i o n
-25-
CARD #5
''FEELING" THERMOMETER
WARM
100°
Very warm o r f a v o r a b l e
f e e l i n g f o r candidate
85°
Good warm o r f a v o r a b l e
f e e l i n g f o r candidate
70°
F a i r l y warm o r f a v o r a b l e
f e e l i n g f o r candidate
60°
A b i t more warm o r
f a v o r a b l e than c o l d
fee l i n g
50°
No f e e l i n g a t a l l f o r
candidate
40°
A b i t more c o l d o r
unfavorable f e e l i n g
30°
F a i r l y cold or
unfavorable f e e l i n g
15°
Quite c o l d o r
unfavorable f e e l i n g
4
\/
COLD
0°
Very c o l d o r u n f a v o r able f e e l i n g