SVG126/02
Twice Yearly Profiling Trial: Results and
Recommendations
Meeting Name
Supplier Volume Allocation Group
Meeting Date
2 August 2011
Purpose of paper
For Decision
Following recommendations from the Profiling and Settlement Review Group (PSRG) and
the Profiling Expert Group (PEG) the SVG (SVG120/06) agreed that a trial be undertaken on
twice yearly profiling to shorten the profile production timescales from 2 years to 1. The
trial has been carried out to assess the viability of the timescales for the twice yearly
Summary
approach and the validity of the data produced. The paper reports that a viable set of data
has been produced and recommends that the data for next year be produced using the
revised timescales. The SVG is invited to note the results of the trial and agree ELEXON’s
recommendations for the next steps.
1.
Background
1.1
The proposal for twice yearly profiling was presented to the PSRG in June 2010. The paper (see
Attachment A) set out the detailed production timescales, risks and benefits of producing profiles twice
yearly to shorten the profile production timescale. The rationale for shortening the timescales was to
make the profiles react quicker to changes in profile shape driven by roll-outs of Advanced and Smart
meters.
1.2
In order to quantify the costs and benefits of this approach, a Draft Change Proposal (DCP0047) was
issued to assess any impact on participants. There were seven responses:
a)
Six were in favour of the proposal on the basis that the profiles would be:
More accurate;
More relevant ;and
More interactive with the Smart metering roll-out.
b)
One party was against stating:
‘With the current uncertainty around Smart metering and the impact on settlement data and
processes, we question if this proposed change is cost effective with the potential limited
timescales that profiling will continue to be used. Also, we believe that the volume displacement
across Annualised Advance (AA) and Estimated Annual Consumption (EAC) data because of mid-
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year changes, have not been addressed and will have to be taken into consideration, if this
proposal is to be progressed.’
1.3
ELEXON intends to speak to the party to alleviate their concerns, subject to agreement of the
recommendations in this paper, as we believe that profiling will continue for at least the next 5 years as
Advanced and Smart metering is rolled out, even if there is a move to Half Hourly (HH) settlement. This
change supports the maintenance of accurate profiles during the roll-out and helps pick up any changes
in customer behaviour due to Smart metering. Furthermore, AAs and EAC will always cross changes in
profile coefficients, so a change in the data from one set to another should not ‘displace’ volume just
allocate it slightly differently.
1.4
Implementation timescales provided in response to the impact assessment ranged from ‘No advance
notice required’ to 6 months lead time.
1.5
It should be noted that the out-turn format of the data will not change, it will merely be based on more
recent data. Therefore clarification is being sought from respondents that suggested that there are IT
impacts.
1.6
The Profiling Expert Group (PEG) discussed the issue and agreed to recommend a trial of the twice yearly
process to the SVG (agreed SVG120/06) to check the viability of producing the profile to tight timescales
and the validity of the out turn data. The SVG approved this approach. This paper reports the findings of
that trial and invites SVG to agree ELEXON’s recommendations on the next steps.
2.
Profiling Trial
2.1
The Profiling trial was set to produce a viable set of coefficients based on the data for the autumn and
winter seasons using the most recent data available (autumn and winter 2010/11). A timetable and data
analysis plan was developed by ELEXON as the Profile Administrator and its profiling data analyst. The
plan has been executed and the profiling data has been successfully produced to the timescales in the
plan. The data was then pooled with data from the previous two years to produce the final coefficients.
3.
The Profiling Expert Group
3.1
The data has been checked for content and format by ELEXON. The PEG were sent the ‘Friendly Format’
version of the data and have agreed the following comments and the recommendations in this paper:
The trial has been a success;
The trial has produced a viable set of coefficients that could be used in Settlement; and
The trial has met the proposed timescales for production.
4.
Lessons Learned from the Trial
4.1
There have been lessons learned in producing the new data:
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The need for clear definition of the data set to be produced including how seasons not being
updated should be populated;
The requirement for strict version control as several versions of similar data are being processed at
the same time;
That Bank Holidays for the existing data recalculated based on the latest year (there is a need to
ensure existing data does not change);
That ‘effective from’ dates for new data need clear definition;
Timescales for PEG review are short and can coincide with holiday periods; and
The requirement to consider how and when Group Average Annual Consumptions and Default
Period Profile Coefficients are calculated and updated.
5.
New Approach, CP and MDD timetable
5.1
The profiles being used in settlement for the BSC Year 2011/12 was agreed at the February meeting of
the SVG. This profiling data runs until 31/03/2012. The data produced from the trial could potentially be
used for autumn and winter 2011. However this would require MDD changes to be both raised and
agreed at this meeting with a go live date of 5 September 2011. The data currently in Supplier Volume
Allocation Agent (SVAA) systems would also need to be overwritten/ superseded before the formal
agreement of the MDD change at the 1 September meeting of the SVG. This would remove the 2 year
time lag and make sure the most up to date profiling data was being used.
5.2
However, taking into account the above and the implementation timescales identified the DCP0047 it is
recommended not to update the existing data for autumn and winter 2011/12. ELEXON recommends
that, if the twice yearly approach is agreed by SVG to provide benefits (as recommended by the PEG), a
data set using the Spring, Summer and High Summer data in 2011 can be used to create data for use
from the 1 April 2012. This would provide the benefits of the twice yearly approach and reduce the
timescales in the profiling production process.
5.3
We propose that a CP be raised for approval by the SVG to introduce twice yearly profiling from April
2012 and to address any changes required to BSCP508, BSCP510 and the PrA Service Description. This
will build upon the work of the DCP (DCP0047).
5.4
This would also give participants 6 months to assess any implementation issues in more detail. The outturn data could be single year or pooled as is deemed appropriate. The twice yearly approach would then
be employed going forward.
6.
Default Period Profile Coefficients
6.1
It is proposed that the Default Period Profile Coefficients for Profile Classes 1, 3 and 5 to 8 and Group
Average Annual Consumption are only updated once a year using the latest set of data available. This will
be no change to the existing process.
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7.
Recommendations
4.1
We invite you to:
a)
AGREE that the new data should not be used for this year’s autumn and winter as a set has
already been agreed and is being used by market participants;
b)
AGREE that a CP be raised for approval by the SVG to introduce twice yearly profiling from April
2012 and to address any changes required to BSCP508, BSCP510 and the PrA Service Description;
c)
AGREE that ELEXON instruct the Data Analysis Contractor as to the deliverables required for an
April implementation date;
d)
AGREE that the Default Period Profile Coefficients will only be updated once yearly in the annual
refresh (March);
e)
AGREE that the Group Average Annual Consumption data will only be updated once yearly in the
annual refresh (March);
f)
AGREE that the MDD input file be populated with the existing data (e.g. for spring, summer and
high summer or vice versa for autumn and winter) for the seasons which are not being updated to
avoid SVAA validation issues; and
g)
NOTE that any outstanding issues with the timing of MDD releases be considered further and be
brought back to SVG for consideration.
Attachment:
Attachment_A_PSRG_Paper.doc
For more information, please contact:
Kevin Spencer
ELEXON Market Analyst
[email protected]
020 7380 4115
SVG126/02
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© ELEXON 2011
Shortening Profile Production Timescales: Twice Yearly Profile
Production Option
Background
The current Profiling process takes 2 years, from the start of the collection of half hourly demand
data (from the samples) to the use of the Profiles (derived from that data) in Settlement.
The processes are as follows:
Year 1
Demand Data Collection
Year 2
Data Validation;
Data Analysis;
Profiling Expert Group (PEG) review of average demand data;
Profile Production;
Profile Assessment and PEG review of Regression data and profiles;
SVG Approval of the profiles for use in settlement;
MDD Change Request Raised; and
SVG Approval MDD.
Year 3
Use of the profiles in Settlement.
This paper defines how an approach can be taken to reduce the production timescale to only 1 year.
This approach is based on a twice yearly approach and thereby making the profiles more up to date
with regards to changes in customer behaviour.
The Profiling Seasons
There are five Profiling Seasons these are used in both calculation and application of the Profiling
Regression data. The current Profiling season are defined as follows:
Winter (Season Id 1): defined as the period from the day of clock change from British Summer
Time (BST) to Greenwich Mean Time (GMT) in October, up to and including the day preceding
the clock change from GMT to BST in March;
Spring (Season Id 2): defined as the period from the day of clock change from GMT to BST in
March, up to and including the Friday preceding the start of the Summer period;
Summer (Season Id 3): defined as the ten-week period, preceding High Summer, starting on the
sixteenth Saturday before the August Bank Holiday;
Draft 0.2
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02 June 2010
High Summer (Season Id 4): defined as the period of six weeks and two days from the sixth
Saturday before August Bank Holiday up to and including the Sunday following the August Bank
Holiday; and
Autumn (Season Id 5): defined as the period from the Monday following the August Bank
Holiday, up to and including the day preceding the clock change from BST to GMT in October.
The twice yearly profile process
It is proposed that a twice yearly process be implemented as follows:
First run:
Uses Autumn and Winter sample data
Second run:
Uses Spring, Summer and High Summer sample data
The First Profile Production Process
1. Production, Review Approval Period:
At the start of Spring and extending through the Summer and High Summer.
2. Data to be processed:
The data for the preceding seasons: Autumn and Winter.
3. Profile Data to be used in Settlement:
The season following: Autumn and Winter.
The Second Profile Production Process
1. Production Review and Approval Period:
At the start of Autumn and extending through Winter.
2. Data to be processed:
The data for the preceding seasons: Spring, Summer and High Summer.
3. Data to be used in Settlement:
The season following: Spring, Summer and High Summer .
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02 June 2010
Detailed Production Timescales
Using the existing process steps then a detailed timescales would look as follows.
The First Profile Production Process
Process
Period
Comment
Demand Data Collection
Completed by Working Day (WD) +15 from
the start date in Spring (Season Id 2)
[approx. 20th April depending on Clock
Change date]
This allows for all data to be either
collected by the PrA or provided by
Suppliers.
Data Validation
Completed by WD+15 from data collection
end date.
Validation can start from Spring
(Season Id 2) but will only be
complete by this date.
[approx. mid May]
Data Analysis
Completed by WD+15 from data validation
end data and sent to PEG
[approx, start June]
Profiling Expert Group
(PEG) review of average
demand data
Completed by WD+10 of receipt with a
meeting in mid June.
Profile Production
Concurrent with PEG review but completed
with incorporation of any changes by the
Start of July and sent to PEG
Profile Assessment and
PEG review of
Regression data
To be completed by WD+10 of start of June.
Recommendation and SVG paper to be
prepared for August SVG.
SVG Approval of
Profiling Data.
August SVG
MDD Change Request
Raised
Following August SVG
SVG Approval of MDD
change
MDD changes approved September SVG
data will already be loaded as change
effectively already approved at August SVG.
Use of the data in
Settlement.
From the start of Autumn (Season Id 5)
Draft 0.2
Includes calculation and internal
assessment of data. Standing data
can be updated prior to the
analysis.
[approx, mid June]
Defaulting to existing data to apply
if not agreed by SVG and data
loaded into SVAA and MDD pending
SVG approval of MDD change.
Page 3
02 June 2010
The Second Profile Production Process
Process
Demand Data Collection
Period
Comment
Completed by WD+15 from the start date in
Autumn (Season Id 5).
This allows for all data to be either
collected by the PrA or provided by
Suppliers.
[approx. mid September]
Data Validation
Completed by WD+15 from data collection
end date.
[approx. mid October]
Data Analysis
Completed by WD+15 from data validation
end data and sent to PEG
[approx. start November]
Profiling Expert Group
(PEG) review of average
demand data
Validation can start from Autumn
(Season Id 5) but will only be
complete by this date.
Includes calculation and internal
assessment of data. Standing data
can be updated prior to the
analysis.
Completed by WD+10 of receipt with a
meeting at start November
[approx. mid November]
Profile Production
Concurrent with PEG review but completed
with incorporation of any changes by the
Start of December and sent to PEG.
Profile Assessment and
PEG review of
Regression data
To be completed by First week in January.
Recommendation and SVG paper to be
prepared for February SVG.
SVG Approval of
Profiling Data.
February SVG
MDD Change Request
Raised
Following February SVG
SVG Approval of MDD
change
MDD changes approved March SVG data
will already be loaded as change effectively
already approved at February SVG.
Use of the data in
Settlement
From the start of Spring (Season Id 2)
Draft 0.2
Defaulting to existing data to apply
if not agreed by SVG and data
loaded into SVAA and MDD pending
SVG approval of MDD change.
Page 4
02 June 2010
The Benefits and Risks of a Twice Yearly Approach
In assessing the risks and benefits of the proposed approach, it should be noted that the default
position under the current process is to use the existing set of data. This would be when the SVG
does not approve the new set of the profiles for the next BSC Year, say due to advice from the PEG
that the new profiles had some error or were not fit for purpose.
Under the twice yearly approach, using the same principle as above, the default would be to the
existing baseline (Data will be from Year T – 2). Therefore, the proposed approach would be just as
accurate, or better, than the current baseline. Issues relating to profiling accuracy and GSPGCF do
not need to be considered.
Benefits
The main benefit would be that more up to date data would form part of the profiling data set. This
would mean that any changes in customer behaviour would be captured in the profiles quicker.
It should be noted that the current profiling approach calculates an average profile over the last 3
valid years. This approach seeks to mitigate any adverse affects of temperatures in the sample year.
If it was felt that the customer behaviour was changing very rapidly, single year data rather than
pooled data could be used (if it was assessed that the change in shape out-weighed issues relating to
temperature effects).
Additional Effort and Costs
The additional effort involved will mainly be for the PrA and ELEXON (including MDD) with increased
effort in validating and processing the data twice (albeit in 2 smaller chunks). The Profiling Expert
Group would also be affected in assessing the data and SVG in approving the data. There would also
be impacts on other parties, Suppliers on receiving and loading (and checking) the data and a minor
impact on the SVAA in loading the profiles.
The main area of cost is related to the PrA analysis process undertaking the process twice. Since, the
PrA Service is currently due for re-procurement, the exact cost of this additional effort cannot be
assessed at this time.
Potential Risks
Risk
Risk
Number
1
Draft 0.2
The risk that all
the data cannot
be collected
from the
sample to the
proposed
Probability
Severity
Rationale
Mitigation
Low
Low
The risk is
estimated as
being low since
data is collected
remotely on a
monthly basis.
If the last month of
data had not been
collected processing
of previous data could
still be implemented.
Page 5
02 June 2010
Risk
Risk
Number
Probability
Severity
Rationale
Mitigation
timescale.
2
The risk that
data not
received from
Supplier to
timescales.
Medium
Low
Slightly higher
probability since
this is not in
direct control of
the PrA.
PrA can chase missing
data. Further Top-Up
data can be requested
from Suppliers. A
‘lessons learnt’
exercise can be
conducted on the
existing P223 process
to identify any
improvements.
3
The risk that
data cannot be
validated to
timescales.
Medium
Low
An over run of
validation could
occur as a knock
on from Risks 1
and 2. This could
affect production
timescales.
More resource could
be added to validation
if the risk became
high.
4
The risk that
the overall
timescales are
affected.
Medium
Low
Delay at any
stage could
cause an overrun in production
timescales.
Default the first
season to existing
data and continue
process for following
season. E.G. Default
Autumn and get the
new Winter Season
data ready.
Draft 0.2
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Worked Example
for 2010/2011
Day
Number
Date
28/03/2010
29/03/2010
30/03/2010
31/03/2010
01/04/2010
02/04/2010
03/04/2010
04/04/2010
05/04/2010
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01/05/2010
02/05/2010
Draft 0.2
Season_id
362
363
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Day of Week
SU
WE
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GF
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Key
7
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Data Collection
Completion
Data Validation
Data Analysis
PEG Review of GADs
Profile Production
Profile Assessment
SVG TPD approval
SVG MDD Approval
02 June 2010
03/05/2010
04/05/2010
05/05/2010
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WE
WE
SA
SU
WE
WE
WE
WE
WE
SA
SU
WE
WE
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
Page 10
02 June 2010
15/09/2010
16/09/2010
17/09/2010
18/09/2010
19/09/2010
20/09/2010
21/09/2010
22/09/2010
23/09/2010
24/09/2010
25/09/2010
26/09/2010
27/09/2010
28/09/2010
29/09/2010
30/09/2010
01/10/2010
02/10/2010
03/10/2010
04/10/2010
05/10/2010
06/10/2010
07/10/2010
08/10/2010
09/10/2010
10/10/2010
11/10/2010
12/10/2010
13/10/2010
14/10/2010
15/10/2010
16/10/2010
17/10/2010
18/10/2010
19/10/2010
20/10/2010
21/10/2010
22/10/2010
23/10/2010
24/10/2010
25/10/2010
26/10/2010
27/10/2010
28/10/2010
29/10/2010
Draft 0.2
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
WE
WE
WE
SA
SU
WE
WE
WE
WE
WE
SA
SU
WE
WE
WE
WE
WE
SA
SU
WE
WE
WE
WE
WE
SA
SU
WE
WE
WE
WE
WE
SA
SU
WE
WE
WE
WE
WE
SA
SU
WE
WE
WE
WE
WE
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
Page 11
02 June 2010
30/10/2010
31/10/2010
01/11/2010
02/11/2010
03/11/2010
04/11/2010
05/11/2010
06/11/2010
07/11/2010
08/11/2010
09/11/2010
10/11/2010
11/11/2010
12/11/2010
13/11/2010
14/11/2010
15/11/2010
16/11/2010
17/11/2010
18/11/2010
19/11/2010
20/11/2010
21/11/2010
22/11/2010
23/11/2010
24/11/2010
25/11/2010
26/11/2010
27/11/2010
28/11/2010
29/11/2010
30/11/2010
01/12/2010
02/12/2010
03/12/2010
04/12/2010
05/12/2010
06/12/2010
07/12/2010
08/12/2010
09/12/2010
10/12/2010
11/12/2010
12/12/2010
13/12/2010
Draft 0.2
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
5
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
SA
SU
WE
WE
WE
WE
WE
SA
SU
WE
WE
WE
WE
WE
SA
SU
WE
WE
WE
WE
WE
SA
SU
WE
WE
WE
WE
WE
SA
SU
WE
WE
WE
WE
WE
SA
SU
WE
WE
WE
WE
WE
SA
SU
WE
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
Page 12
02 June 2010
14/12/2010
15/12/2010
16/12/2010
17/12/2010
18/12/2010
19/12/2010
20/12/2010
21/12/2010
22/12/2010
23/12/2010
24/12/2010
25/12/2010
26/12/2010
27/12/2010
28/12/2010
29/12/2010
30/12/2010
31/12/2010
01/01/2011
02/01/2011
03/01/2011
04/01/2011
05/01/2011
06/01/2011
07/01/2011
08/01/2011
09/01/2011
10/01/2011
11/01/2011
12/01/2011
13/01/2011
14/01/2011
15/01/2011
16/01/2011
17/01/2011
18/01/2011
19/01/2011
20/01/2011
21/01/2011
22/01/2011
23/01/2011
24/01/2011
25/01/2011
26/01/2011
27/01/2011
Draft 0.2
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
WE
WE
WE
WE
SA
SU
WE
WE
WE
WE
SD
CD
BD
SU
SU
SD
SD
SD
J1
SU
SU
SD
WE
WE
WE
SA
SU
WE
WE
WE
WE
WE
SA
SU
WE
WE
WE
WE
WE
SA
SU
WE
WE
WE
WE
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
Page 13
02 June 2010
28/01/2011
29/01/2011
30/01/2011
31/01/2011
01/02/2011
02/02/2011
03/02/2011
04/02/2011
05/02/2011
06/02/2011
07/02/2011
08/02/2011
09/02/2011
10/02/2011
11/02/2011
12/02/2011
13/02/2011
14/02/2011
15/02/2011
16/02/2011
17/02/2011
18/02/2011
19/02/2011
20/02/2011
21/02/2011
22/02/2011
23/02/2011
24/02/2011
25/02/2011
26/02/2011
27/02/2011
28/02/2011
01/03/2011
02/03/2011
03/03/2011
04/03/2011
05/03/2011
06/03/2011
07/03/2011
08/03/2011
09/03/2011
10/03/2011
11/03/2011
12/03/2011
13/03/2011
Draft 0.2
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
WE
SA
SU
WE
WE
WE
WE
WE
SA
SU
WE
WE
WE
WE
WE
SA
SU
WE
WE
WE
WE
WE
SA
SU
WE
WE
WE
WE
WE
SA
SU
WE
WE
WE
WE
WE
SA
SU
WE
WE
WE
WE
WE
SA
SU
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Page 14
02 June 2010
14/03/2011
15/03/2011
16/03/2011
17/03/2011
18/03/2011
19/03/2011
20/03/2011
21/03/2011
22/03/2011
23/03/2011
24/03/2011
25/03/2011
26/03/2011
27/03/2011
28/03/2011
29/03/2011
30/03/2011
31/03/2011
Draft 0.2
348
349
350
351
352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
WE
WE
WE
WE
WE
SA
SU
WE
WE
WE
WE
WE
SA
SU
WE
WE
WE
WE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
Page 15
02 June 2010