Re-Shoring: a Key to a Lean Supply Chain and Robust Manufacturing AME/APQC Benchmarking CoP - June 29, 2010 Harry Moser Chairman Emeritus GF Agie Charmilles Re-Shoring Initiative Customers: Why to Source Local. Vendors: How to sell Local Sourcing. Harry Moser Chairman Emeritus GF Agie Charmilles Definitions Re-shoring: bringing work back to the U.S. Antonym: Offshoring Synonyms: Backshoring and Onshoring Nearshoring: includes U.S., Canada & Mexico Re-Shoring Challenge: Overcome 40 years of rapidly increasing offshoring! Initiative Objectives Promote the re-shoring trend Provide tools to help OEMs make better sourcing decisions Help OEMs find competitive U.S. sources Document successful re-shorings Offer prospective skilled manufacturing workers hope for a lifetime career The Re-Shoring Initiative: Broad Industry Led Effort NTMA/PMA Fairs: 5/12, Irvine, CA & Oct 29, Mashantucket, CT Media coverage: WSJ, IW, CBS, CNBC, MMS, etc. (80+) Publishing case histories Online Library of 49 re-shoring articles TCO Estimator for customer and vendor use Support from: Organizations: AMT, SME, AME, APQC, NAM, AMTDA, NIMS, FMA Companies: AgieCharmilles, Big Kaiser, TCI Prec. Metals NIST’s MEP Interest from 1 U.S. Congressman Change the Sourcing Paradigm From: “Off-Shored is Cheaper” To: “Local Reduces Total Cost of Ownership.” Reduce Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) Re-shoring’s benefits include: Reduce pipeline and surge inventory impacts on JIT operations; Improve the quality and consistency of inputs; Localize manufacturing near R&D and Marketing, strengthening innovation; Reduce IP and regulatory compliance risk; Avoid foreign wage and currency surprises; Minimize carbon footprint All while staying cost competitive. Reduce inventory example Safety Stock proportional to LeadTime Total Cost of Ownership: Steel Gear $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 China $1.00 U.S. $0.50 $0.00 Direct Product Cost Overhead and Profit Source: Gibb River Group Pkg., Freight and Inventory Additional Quality Cost End-of-life and prototype costs = TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) TCO Estimator Available Easily estimate the Total Cost of Ownership Compare on-shore to offshore cost 18 user-modifiable cost factors Current and forecast costs For parts and tooling Status: in Beta test at customers and shops Available! TCO Estimator Cost Factors FOB Price Packaging Duty Freight: air, surface, all fees Inventory: en-route, safety stock, obsolete Rework/quality Product liability IP risk Impact on innovation Travel Prototype Wage inflation and currency appreciation Example Assumptions Chinese unit price U.S. unit price # units/year unit weight, incl. packaging, lbs shipment size, units product life, yrs Packaging* Payment on shipment Quality* $80.00 $100.00 12,000.00 2.00 1,000.00 Product liability* 0.50% IP risk* 2% Innovation* 0% Trips/yr 2 Prototype cost* $5,000 5.00 Obsolescence, mos.* 2% Wage inflation* 8% Currency appreciation* 5% 0.00 Yes 2% * Chinese differential vs. U.S. TCO Comparison Example Comparison of U.S. and China TCO: Parts 140 COST, U.S. $ 120 100 80 60 40 1 2 3 4 5 Year China TCO U.S. TCO China FOB “As China’s Wages Rise, Export Prices Could Follow” 24% to 100% wage increases! Source: New York Times, June 7, 2010 Offshoring contributes to Waste Toyota Wastes Offshoring Contributes Overproduction Waiting Uncertain delivery/Inconsistent quality Transport 12,000 mi. inbound, 6,000 return (boat ½ full) Overprocessing Inspection of material and tolerances Inventory In transit, safety stock, uncertain delivery and quality Motion Travel, e.g. 2-3 weeks, 2-3X/yr Defects Much higher than local sources Other LCC supply chain issues Multiple language barriers: English/Mandarin and Mandarin/local dialect ISO certificates often close to meaningless Off-hours phone calls Big turnover problems: was typically 80% at many Indian companies in 2008 Re-Shoring Facilitates Clustering Innovation Partnering Communications Lean supply chain DFMA 2010 NTMA / PMA Contract Manufacturing Purchasing Fairs A one-stop for OEMs to find competitive U.S.based sources. 50+ OEMs. 100+ job shops - machined, stamped and fabricated parts, special tooling (dies, molds, jigs, fixtures and gauges) and special machines. May 12, 2010 Irvine, CA Fair Who should attend the Fairs/consider re-shoring? Jobs out parts or tooling JIT logistics with variable demand Valuable IP Tight regulatory and/or quality requirements Partners with contract manufacturers Committed to minimize carbon footprint Committed to strengthening U.S. manufacturing sector What Work to bring to the Fair/consider for re-shoring? Offshored or U.S. sourced work Machined, stamped and fabricated parts, special tooling and special machines Products to be sold in N. American market High mix/low volume New/quick launch/frequent engineering changes/short life cycle Fragile High risk, safety parts Low labor content Shipping cost high vs. labor costs Results of May 12 Fair 57 Customers: 64% brought offshored work 113 shops Many of both asked to test the TCO Estimator 15 existing re-shoring cases reported Why Re-Shoring is a Hot Topic A renewed focus on manufacturing by the White House and Congress High international transportation costs High foreign wage inflation Expected Yuan appreciation Low domestic capacity utilization Focus on increasing employment Growing awareness of IP and quality risks Sourcing Moving Home Companies are shifting some work home or close to home: 11 of 20 in N. America 2 of 10 in Europe Source: 3PL Provider CEO Perspective 2008 survey of major logistics providers. Sourcing Moving Home 51% of companies surveyed found no financial benefit in offshoring 20% brought sourcing closer in 2009 Of which 59% re-shored Source: Supply Chain Solutions, Grant Thornton, Jan. 2010 survey. 312 responses. Re-Shoring’s Visibility is Booming! 50 # of Articles 40 30 20 10 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Year Article Published Note: 1. 2010 calculated as 6X January + February count. 2. Measured by counting all relevant articles found via early March 2010 Google search on “re-shoring” “back-shoring” and “on-shoring.” Some Published Cases ATMs Bicycles Electric hand drills Hybrid batteries Machine tools Photo Voltaics TVs Water heaters Why it is easier to re-shore than to export more There are distinct advantages for a U.S. company to compete here rather than offshore: Absence of duty, freight and ocean packing No Interest on pipeline and contingency inventory Familiar legal and regulatory system Simplicity of selling into huge home market vs. fixed costs of overseas sales and support No exchange rate issues Cost advantages of greater than 24%, similar to total direct labor % of mfg. cost Timing: quick impact because already selling here Requests of OEMs Try the TCO Estimator Help improve the Estimator Make sourcing decisions based on TCO, not just price Check our Library to see what your industry is doing Consider how a stronger home market benefits your sales Attend the Fairs! Requests of Vendors Talk TCO Use the TCO Estimator to help your customers estimate the cost of on-and off-shoring Help improve the Estimator Attend the Fair! Requests of All Submit successful re-shoring cases Good publicity Good for the country Why Re-Shoring is Good for America Re-shoring can strengthen and broaden manufacturing and the defense base Re-shoring can strengthen SMEs -- the source of job growth Re-shoring can help reduce the trade deficit, budget deficit and unemployment America Understands! Best ways to create more U.S. jobs: Keep mfg. jobs here: 18% Lower taxes: 14% Help small business: 12% Green jobs: 12% Infrastructure: 10% Etc. Source: Gallop Poll, Nov. 20-22, 2009 America Responds! June 21 email from TN OEM Offshores 70+% of components Always felt guilty about offshoring Preaches importance of mfg. Read June Mfg. Eng re-shoring article Will seek U.S. sources and reconsider inhouse mfg. Article: a “Kick in the seat of the pants.” For more information on the Fair Contact: Rob Akers - Chief Operating Officer National Tooling & Machining Association 9300 Livingston Rd, Ft. Washington MD, 20744 Toll Free: 800.248.6862 Direct: 301.281.8009 E-mail: [email protected] Visit: www.PurchasingFair.com For more information on the Re-Shoring Initiative Contact: Harry Moser Initiative Leader 847-726-2975 [email protected] Re-Shoring: a Key to a Lean Supply Chain and Robust Manufacturing AME/APQC Benchmarking CoP - June 29, 2010 Harry Moser Chairman Emeritus GF Agie Charmilles Brought to you by www.VelocitySchedulingSystem.com
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