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GIS and Statistical Analysis for the Spatial Diffusion of Cholera
In Modern Japan: the Case Study of Fukushima Prefecture
in Epidemic 1882 and 1895
Chun-Lin KUO
[email protected]
Research Fellow
Global Security Research Institute (G-SEC),
Keio University
This research is one of the application studies of Reki-show Project
(2002-06,Convenor: Professor Ken’ichi Tomobe, Keio University)
Founded by the Japanese Ministry of Education and Science
1.Introduction and Review
Issues of studying Historical Diseases
• Investigate the outbreak of an
epidemic is an opportunity to
realize the conversion of
society, and the spatial
diffusion of an epidemic is also
an index toward better
understanding the historical
change of the regional
reconstruction.
Medical Science
and Public Health
Historical GIS
Historical
and Disease
Geography
Disease and
Environmental
History
• GIS is a useful platform for the study of historical
diseases. GIS can overlook a location in different phase and
integrate with historical, archeological and disease events to
translate textual description and numerical evidence digitally
into spatial probability and conceptualized historical fuzzy
pictures.
Cholera Epidemic in the 19th century
Diffusion without Japan ?
Source: World atlas of epidemic
Diseases (2004)
Cholera and the Modernization of Japan
• Cholera was an ‘initiator’ of sanitary reform in Japan. The
outbreak of cholera facilitated the maintenance of sewer system
and related public health environment in modern Japan.
• A large body of literature has been generated on the role and
influences of cholera epidemics on the development of publichealth policies, sanitation procedure, and urban reformation.
Study of cholera in Japan still in need to have a
geographical review and a systematic spatial analysis.
• After the Japan’s Meiji restoration
(1868), major outbreak took place
every 3-5 years until 1895.
The records provide valuable
material to investigate the regional
reform and the process of the
Civilization in modern Japan.
Human
Human
Water, Food
Simple Transmission Model for
Infections of Human by Cholera
2.Framework and Objective
Framework
•
Data and the usage of GIS
– Sanitary reports in modern Japan
– Database formation by GIS
•
Cholera Epidemic in Modern Japan
– Epidemic Waves
– Geographic Characteristics
•
Diffusion Pattern
– Diffusion routes and local network
– Temporal and Geographic trends of an Epidemic
•
Diffusion Process
– Modeling the diffusion of Epidemic 1895
– Temporal investigation of diffusion process
Objectives
To explore methods evaluating the changes of regional
reconstruction after the Japan’s Meiji restoration by examining the
most critical cholera epidemic waves in the late 19th in Japan.
To link the “Cholera Ryuko Kiji”, the most detail cholera epidemic
report in Japan, with spatial diffusion models to better depict the
movement of this infectious disease over time and space.
3.Data and the usage of GIS
• The report of the central
sanitary bureau (since 1876):
The most important material in
understanding the sanitary
situation and disease
distribution of the whole country
in modern Japan.
(Digital Archive)
• Cholera RyuKo Kiji (Epidemic
Report) published by local
government (since 1882):
The information in the Cholera
Epidemic Report can be divided
into three categories: textural
accounts; numerical evidence;
and disease maps.
(Digital Library)
Textural
accounts
Numerical
evidence
Disease
maps
Disease attribute
Spatial attribute
•Cholera cases
•Patient’s info
•Infected villages
•First infected date
•Reason of infection
•Other attribute data
•Map images
•Place name
•Boundaries
•Diffusion routes
•Other spatial info
Geo-database
Overlay
Diffusion
pattern
Spatial
calculation
modeling
Diffusion
system
Diffusion
process
Data source: Cholera Ryuko-Kiji (Epidemic
Report) in Modern Japan
1877
1879
1881
1883
1885
1887
1889
1891
1893
1895
1897
1899
1901
1903
1905
1907
1909
1911
1913
1915
1917
Patients
1919
Death
1921
1923
1925
0
5
10
15
20
万
The progresses of transforming the Cholera
Epidemic Report
National Diet Library
Applying GIS in Attribute Data Integration
and Database Formation
Geodatabase
4.Cholera Epidemic in Modern Japan
Cholera Diffusion in National Scale
(Temporal perspective)
Epidemic 1879
Epidemic 1886
Epidemic 1882
Epidemic 1890
Fukushima
Prefecture
Study Area: Fukushima Prefecture
•
•
•
Chronology
The front door of Tohoku (North-East) Region linking
Japan’s capital Tokyo and Tohoku region.
1868
Share borders with six prefectures, without any
Meiji
international harbors.
Reconstruction
Dived from east to west into three regions of Hana- 1871
dori (coastal region), Naka-dori (inland region), and
New Prefectural
Aizu by natural environment.
system
1876
Fukushima prefecture
1882
Cholera outbreak
1886
Boundary
consolidation
1887
Tohoku Honsen
Naka-dori
Aizu
Railway
region
region
1895
Hama-dori
Sino-Japanese War
region
Cholera outbreak
Epidemic Waves
„ There was a time delay
of cholera diffusion
between the first case in
Japan and the first
record in Fukushima for
more than 6 months.
Epidemic
1882
Epidemic
1895
„ The peak of outbreak in
Fukushima was one
month later than the
peak of the whole
country.
„ Comparing the two
Epidemic waves, the
time they reached the
peak were close, but
there were opposite
mirror trend of the two
waves.
5.Diffusion Pattern
Diffusion Pattern and Local Network
Temporal and Geographic Pattern of Epidemics
Results of analyzing the diffusion patterns
• The diffusion pattern in
•
epidemic 1882 was limited by
geographical condition and
local accessibility in Auzi,
Naka-dori, and Hama-dori
region of Fukushima prefecture
• The diffusion pattern in
Epidemic 1895 reflected that
most of the cholera cases
clustered in transportation
hub of Kaido (main road)
network and addressed the
active interactions between
Naka-dori and Hama-dori
region.
The patterns of cholera
distribution strongly
support the hypothesis
that different diffusion
systems occupied the
diffusion in separated
region of Fukushima.
• The difference of these
diffusion patterns could
be explained by its
specific geographic
context and socioeconomic network.
Changing Mechanism & Diffusion Process??
6.Diffusion Process
•
Spatial Diffusion
– Relocation diffusion
– Expansion diffusion
• Contagious Diffusion
• Hierarchical Diffusion
• Mixed Diffusion
•
Model of diffusion process
–
The time-ordered sequence of
appearance of a disease pattern has a
dynamic relationship with an urban
system, in which the size of an urban
population and the geographic distance
from the initial introduction are functioned
as
β2
β 3 ui
Ti = β1 H i Di e
Hi is the household of a infected village/town i
in 1895,
Di is the direct distance from Origin to a
infected village
ui is Random disturbance, and
is constant term.
•
Multi-regression model
LogT = Log β + β LogH + β LogD + u
i
i
i i
1
2
3
Diffusion System in Fukushima: Epidemic 1895
Mixed diffusion
Miyagi
system
Tochigi
system
Relocation
diffusion
Ibaraki
system
Contagious
diffusion
Temporal Investigation of Diffusion Process
Miyagi System
Mixed diffusion
Ibaraki System
Contagious diffusion
Tochigi System
Relocation diffusion
Epidemic Wave
of Fukushima
Findings of analyzing the diffusion process
• Although the outbreak of cholera various in different diffusion
systems, the date when the epidemic arrive the major city
occurred closely. In other words, no matter what kinds of
process it was, the major cities of each system fallen at the
same time.
• The epidemic wave of mixed and contagious diffusion
reached the peak at the same period closing the fallen date
of major city. While, relocation diffusion may have several
increasing waves and the dates of peak was irregularity.
• Types of accumulating curve differed in each diffusion
process that mixed process presented a short and rapidly curve,
contagious process presented diverse phases of increasing,
and relocation process showed a continued growth curve.
Findings of analyzing the diffusion process
• Although the outbreak of cholera various in different diffusion
systems, the date when the epidemic arrive the major city
occurred closely. In other words, no matter what kinds of
process it was, the major cities of each system fallen at the
same time.
• The epidemic wave of mixed and contagious diffusion
reached the peak at the same period closing the fallen date
of major city. While, relocation diffusion may have several
increasing waves and the dates of peak was irregularity.
• Types of accumulating curve differed in each diffusion
process that mixed process presented a short and rapidly curve,
contagious process presented diverse phases of increasing,
and relocation process showed a continued growth curve.
Findings of Miyagi system (Mixed diffusion)
•
Miyagi system presents a
typical hierarchical process
that major city fallen less than
a week and reached the peak
of epidemic wave rapidly.
While the epidemic also
spread contagiously between
villages at the same time that
emerged a mixed diffusion
process. This diffusion
process also suggested that
the urban system had been
formed surrounding the
Fukushima city in the late
19th century.
Findings of Ibaraki system (contagious diffusion)
•
The accumulation curve of
Ibaraki system presents
three stages of diffusion,
where the stage one turned
to stage two at mid-August
and then turned to stage
three at mid-September. It is
notably that urban
hierarchy did not exist in
this region and
contagious diffusion was
the main process for this
period leading to the
epidemic peak.
Findings of Tochigi system (relocation diffusion)
•
There was no significant
proof to support a
hierarchical or a contagious
process in the south of
Naka-dori and part of Auzi
region. Study of Tochigi
system also indicated that
a relatively complex
geographic condition
existed in this region and
the network of settlement
turned to be scattered in
the late 19th century.
7.Conclusion
• This paper was designed to investigate the spatial diffusion of
epidemic cholera in terms of exploring methods toward
better understanding the dynamics of regional
reconstruction in modern Japan.
• The analysis has been facilitated by the richness of the
information contained in Cholera Epidemic Report of
Fukushima and several Digital Archive programs.
• GIS and statistical methods play an important role in this
experimental study of Fukushima Prefecture.
• The comprehension of this case study suggests further
research with systemic investigations among neighbor
prefectures and the whole country.
Thank You
For more information, please visit our web site:
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