Planning for the Schools of Tomorrow
School Enrollment Projections Series
Sun Prairie Area School District
October 2015
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School Enrollment Projection Series: Sun Prairie Area School District
ii
Table of Contents
Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 1
Past Projections Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 1
District Enrollment History ................................................................................................................... 3
Kindergarten Enrollment Trends .......................................................................................................... 7
Birth Trends and Projections ................................................................................................................ 9
Population Estimates .......................................................................................................................... 10
Residential Development .................................................................................................................... 13
Method ............................................................................................................................................... 16
Grade Progression Ratios ................................................................................................................ 16
4K Grade Progression Ratios ........................................................................................................... 18
School Enrollment Projections ............................................................................................................ 19
Baseline Projections ........................................................................................................................ 19
5 Year Trend Projections ................................................................................................................. 20
2 Year “Trend” Projections .............................................................................................................. 21
Kindergarten Trend Projections ...................................................................................................... 22
Comparison of Projection Models ...................................................................................................... 23
Conclusions ......................................................................................................................................... 28
School Enrollment Projection Series: Sun Prairie Area School District
iii
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Introduction
This report offers a summary of the Enrollment Projection Analysis completed for the Sun Prairie
Area School District by the Applied Population Laboratory, University of Wisconsin-Madison.
Projections (2016/17-2025/26) are provided for the district as a whole, by grade grouping, and for each
individual grade.
Past Projections Analysis
The APL completes enrollment projection analyses for the Sun Prairie Area School District on an
annual basis, allowing us to compare past projections to recent district enrollment. Table A compares
last year’s PK-12 projections with this school year’s actual enrollment. The Baseline was the most
reliable of the four models.
TABLE A
Comparison of Actual Enrollments (Fall 2015) with Projected Enrollment (Fall 2014)
Sun Prairie Area School District
Baseline Model
14-15
Difference
5 Year Trend Model
14-15
Difference
2 Year "Trend" Model
14-15
Difference
Kindergarten Trend Model
14-15
Difference
Grade
2015-16
Enrollment
PK
4K
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
34
507
562
592
634
601
578
617
550
548
559
632
566
582
558
40
491
594
578
612
592
562
608
565
541
550
648
578
577
544
6
-16
32
-14
-22
-9
-16
-9
15
-7
-9
16
12
-5
-14
40
491
586
578
612
593
560
608
564
541
563
640
580
573
542
6
-16
24
-14
-22
-8
-18
-9
14
-7
4
8
14
-9
-16
40
473
562
584
610
604
563
613
572
542
587
615
584
573
547
6
-34
0
-8
-24
3
-15
-4
22
-6
28
-17
18
-9
-11
40
491
578
578
612
593
560
608
564
541
563
640
580
573
542
6
-16
16
-14
-22
-8
-18
-9
14
-7
4
8
14
-9
-16
TOTAL
8,120
8,079
-41
8,072
-48
8,068
-52
8,064
-56
K-5
6-7
8-9
10-12
3,584
1,098
1,191
1,706
3,545
1,106
1,197
1,700
-39
8
6
-6
3,537
1,104
1,203
1,696
-47
6
12
-10
3,536
1,114
1,202
1,703
-48
16
11
-3
3,530
1,104
1,203
1,696
-54
6
12
-10
Table B compares the past three years of projections with the actual 2015-16 school year
enrollment by projection model. The percent difference in Table B allows the district to assess which
projection model has been most reliable over the last three years for this current school year. Over the
last three years and reviewing all grade groupings, the Baseline model was the most reliable model.
School Enrollment Projection Series: Sun Prairie Area School District
1
TABLE B
Comparison of Actual Enrollment Compared to Previous Projections
Sun Prairie Area School District
Comparison of 2015/16 Enrollment with Projections
Percent Difference between Actual and Projected
PK-12 Enrollment
PK-12 Enrollment
Projection Year
2014/15
2013/14
2012/13
Projection Year
2014/15
2013/14
2012/13
Actual (2015/16)
Baseline
5 Year Trend
2 Year "Trend"
Kindergarten Trend
Projection Year
Actual (2015/16)
Baseline
5 Year Trend
2 Year "Trend"
Kindergarten Trend
Projection Year
Actual (2015/16)
Baseline
5 Year Trend
2 Year "Trend"
Kindergarten Trend
Projection Year
Actual (2015/16)
Baseline
5 Year Trend
2 Year "Trend"
Kindergarten Trend
Projection Year
Actual (2015/16)
Baseline
5 Year Trend
2 Year "Trend"
Kindergarten Trend
8,120
8,079
8,072
8,068
8,064
8,120
7,829
7,822
7,913
7,904
8,093
8,110
8,050
8,016
7,915
K-5 Enrollment
2014/15
2013/14
2012/13
3,584
3,545
3,537
3,536
3,530
2014/15
1,098
1,104
1,104
1,114
1,104
2014/15
1,191
1,197
1,203
1,202
1,203
3,584
3,447
3,410
3,430
3,492
3,584
3,648
3,588
3,534
3,453
6-7 Enrollment
2013/14
2012/13
1,098
1,074
1,058
1,080
1,058
1,098
1,091
1,065
1,064
1,065
8-9 Enrollment
2013/14
2012/13
1,191
1,145
1,160
1,199
1,160
1,191
1,148
1,132
1,136
1,132
10-12 Enrollment
2014/15
2013/14
2012/13
1,706
1,700
1,696
1,703
1,696
1,706
1,678
1,711
1,720
1,711
1,706
1,657
1,699
1,716
1,699
Baseline
5 Year Trend
2 Year "Trend"
Kindergarten Trend
Projection Year
Baseline
5 Year Trend
2 Year "Trend"
Kindergarten Trend
Projection Year
Baseline
5 Year Trend
2 Year "Trend"
Kindergarten Trend
Projection Year
Baseline
5 Year Trend
2 Year "Trend"
Kindergarten Trend
Projection Year
Baseline
5 Year Trend
2 Year "Trend"
Kindergarten Trend
School Enrollment Projection Series: Sun Prairie Area School District
-0.50%
-0.60%
-0.64%
-0.69%
-3.59%
-3.67%
-2.55%
-2.67%
0.21%
-0.53%
-0.95%
-2.20%
K-5 Enrollment
2014/15
2013/14
2012/13
-1.1%
-1.3%
-1.3%
-1.5%
2014/15
0.5%
0.5%
1.5%
0.5%
2014/15
0.5%
1.0%
0.9%
1.0%
-3.8%
-4.9%
-4.3%
-2.6%
1.8%
0.1%
-1.4%
-3.7%
6-7 Enrollment
2013/14
2012/13
-2.2%
-3.7%
-1.6%
-3.7%
-0.7%
-3.0%
-3.1%
-3.0%
8-9 Enrollment
2013/14
2012/13
-3.8%
-2.6%
0.7%
-2.6%
-3.6%
-4.9%
-4.6%
-4.9%
10-12 Enrollment
2014/15
2013/14
2012/13
-0.4%
-0.6%
-0.2%
-0.6%
-1.6%
0.3%
0.8%
0.3%
-2.9%
-0.4%
0.6%
-0.4%
2
District Enrollment History
Figure 1-A and Tables 1 and 2 display the last ten years of enrollment history and the change in
enrollment over time for the Sun Prairie Area School District. PK-12 Enrollment shows an increase
since 2006/07 by 2,190 students, or a 36.9% increase, but a 29.2% increase for grades K-12.
Sun Prairie Area School District
Figure 1-A
Student Enrollment
9,000
8,000
Students
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
06-07
07-08
08-09
09-10
10-11
11-12
12-13
School Enrollment Projection Series: Sun Prairie Area School District
13-14
14-15
15-16
3
TABLE 1
Student Enrollment
Sun Prairie Area School District
06-07
07-08
08-09
09-10
64
72
70
41
530
477
490
456
440
448
439
405
422
446
471
439
403
492
507
471
477
455
444
455
430
417
477
429
446
434
481
503
512
483
481
463
459
467
443
452
466
421
464
506
490
495
520
500
484
466
448
474
466
469
462
429
TOTAL
5,930
6,006
6,165
K-5
6-7
8-9
10-12
2,841
844
868
1,313
2,846
885
894
1,309
2,923
926
895
1,351
PK
4K
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
PPA 10
PPA 11
PPA 12
SCHOOL YEAR
10-11
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
15-16
52
455
548
508
497
502
519
498
496
480
448
533
471
453
437
5
26
41
43
486
531
550
515
496
498
522
500
499
483
476
534
445
441
0
34
46
33
496
567
540
567
513
511
502
541
509
523
524
494
521
464
1
21
47
37
493
580
573
544
592
521
506
526
553
556
537
523
476
515
1
31
40
41
473
570
602
585
554
602
546
530
538
602
566
566
503
483
5
31
45
34
507
562
592
634
601
578
617
550
548
559
632
563
555
508
3
27
50
6,250
6,969
7,099
7,374
7,604
7,842
8,120
2,995
914
940
1,360
3,072
976
981
1,433
3,112
999
959
1,500
3,200
1,050
1,047
1,548
3,316
1,079
1,093
1,586
3,459
1,068
1,168
1,633
3,584
1,098
1,191
1,706
TABLE 2
Student Enrollment Changes
Sun Prairie Area School District
ABSOLUTE CHANGE
PERCENT CHANGE
AVERAGE ANNUAL
PERCENT CHANGE
'06 to '15 '06 to '10 '11 to '15
GRADE
'06 to '15
'06 to '10
'11 to '15
'06 to '15
'06 to '10
'11 to '15
PK
4K
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
-30
507
32
115
144
145
138
169
111
143
137
186
92
116
105
-12
455
18
31
7
46
79
50
57
75
26
87
0
14
34
-9
21
31
42
119
105
80
95
50
49
76
156
32
103
71
-46.9
na
6.0
24.1
29.4
31.8
31.4
37.7
25.3
35.3
32.5
41.7
19.5
26.4
26.1
-18.8
na
3.4
6.5
1.4
10.1
18.0
11.2
13.0
18.5
6.2
19.5
0.0
3.2
8.4
-20.9
4.3
5.8
7.6
23.1
21.2
16.1
18.2
10.0
9.8
15.7
32.8
6.0
23.1
16.1
-5.2
na
0.7
2.7
3.3
3.5
3.5
4.2
2.8
3.9
3.6
4.6
2.2
2.9
2.9
-4.7
na
0.8
1.6
0.4
2.5
4.5
2.8
3.2
4.6
1.5
4.9
0.0
0.8
2.1
-5.2
1.1
1.5
1.9
5.8
5.3
4.0
4.5
2.5
2.5
3.9
8.2
1.5
5.8
4.0
TOTAL
2,190
1,039
1,021
36.9
17.5
14.4
4.1
4.4
3.6
K-5
6-7
8-9
10-12
743
254
323
393
231
132
113
120
472
99
232
206
26.2
30.1
37.2
29.9
8.1
15.6
13.0
9.1
15.2
9.9
24.2
13.7
2.9
3.3
4.1
3.3
2.0
3.9
3.3
2.3
3.8
2.5
6.0
3.4
School Enrollment Projection Series: Sun Prairie Area School District
4
Figure 1-B shows enrollment history broken down by grade groupings (4K, K-5, 6-7, 8-9, and 10-12).
Elementary school enrollment has increased over the last ten years by 2.9% annually. Middle school
enrollment has increased by 3.3% annually the past ten years, while upper middle school enrollment
has increased by 4.1% annually. High school enrollment increased by 3.3% annually since 2006/07.
Sun Prairie Area School District
Figure 1-B
Student Enrollment by Grade Grouping
4000
3500
3000
Students
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
06-07
07-08
08-09
4K
09-10
10-11
K-5
11-12
6-7
12-13
8-9
School Enrollment Projection Series: Sun Prairie Area School District
13-14
14-15
15-16
10-12
5
Figure 1-C shows the age structure in the Fall of 2015 of the student population with the number of
4 year old kindergarteners at the bottom and the number of 12th graders at the top. 1st, 4th and 8th
grades are largest in 2015/16, while the smallest grades this school year include 4K, 6th and 7th grades.
Sun Prairie Area School District
Figure 1-C
Age Structure, Fall 2015
12
558
11
582
10
566
9
566
8
602
Grade
7
538
6
530
5
546
4
602
3
554
2
585
1
602
K
570
4K
473
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
Number of Students Enrolled
School Enrollment Projection Series: Sun Prairie Area School District
6
Kindergarten Enrollment Trends
Examining trends in kindergarten enrollment is particularly informative for gaining perspective on
future district enrollment, as today’s kindergartners will gradually make up tomorrow’s students at the
higher grade levels as they age and move through the school system. Figure 2-A shows kindergarten
enrollment history in black, and trend lines depicting kindergarten enrollment in red and blue. The
recent trend will be used to project future kindergartners in the Kindergarten Trend model found later
in the report.
Figure 2-A
700
Sun Prairie Area School District
Kindergarten Enrollment Trends
Projected
650
600
Students
550
500
450
400
350
300
Actual
Long Term Trend
Recent Trend
School Enrollment Projection Series: Sun Prairie Area School District
7
In addition to examining kindergarten enrollment on its own, comparing kindergarten enrollment
to outgoing 12th graders offers a snapshot of how the age structure of district enrollment is shifting
either from older to younger, or younger to older. Table 2-B shows kindergarten replacement. In the
Sun Prairie Area School District, kindergarteners replaced outgoing 12th graders every year over the last
ten years.
Sun Prairie Area School District
Figure 2-B
Kindergarten Replacement
700
600
Students
500
400
300
200
100
0
06-07
07-08
08-09
09-10
10-11
Previous Year's 12th Grade Enrollment
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
15-16
Kindergarten Enrollment
School Enrollment Projection Series: Sun Prairie Area School District
8
Birth Trends and Projections
We use historical and projected birth data to forecast the number of kindergarten students who
will enroll in the Sun Prairie Area School District in future years. Figure 3 shows (in black) the number
of births to mothers living in municipalities that fall within school district boundaries, by year, from
1997-2014, as collected from the Wisconsin Department of Health Services. We count resident births
from the City of Sun Prairie, and the Towns of Sun Prairie, Bristol and Burke. We extrapolate these
birth trends into the future to correspond with our Baseline and Recent Trend projection models, using
the B:K grade progression ratios to transform births into future kindergarteners. The red line
represents birth trends over the longer term (between 1997 and 2014). The blue line examines birth
patterns for the last five years and corresponds to the Recent Trend projection models shown later in
this report.
Sun Prairie Area School District
Figure 3
Area Births
700
Projected
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Long Term Trend
Year
1997
1998
# of Births
383
390
Year
2006
2007
# of Births
557
573
Source: WI Department of Health Services
1999
394
2008
575
Recent Trend
2000
432
2009
581
2001
477
2010
546
Actual
2002
458
2011
574
School Enrollment Projection Series: Sun Prairie Area School District
2003
464
2012
533
2004
489
2013
539
2005
514
2014
574
9
Population Estimates
This section examines population trends for municipalities that fall within the Sun Prairie Area
School District. Changes in the total population of the district area, particularly when examined by age,
provide clues into how the school age population may be changing.
Table 3 and Figure 4-A provide U. S. Census population counts and Wisconsin Department of
Administration (DOA) estimates for district area municipalities from 2010 to 2015. These municipal
populations can be compared with estimates for Dane County and the State of Wisconsin. The Sun
Prairie Area School District saw growth from 2000 to 2010 (37%) with the most growth occurring in the
City of Sun Prairie and the Town of Bristol. The last five years’ population estimates indicate continued
general population growth in the district area, especially in the city.
TABLE 3
Total Population by Municipality: 2010-2015
Sun Prairie Area School District
Municipality
Census
2010
est.
2011
POPULATION
est.
est.
2012
2013
C. Sun Prairie
T. Sun Prairie
T. Bristol
T. Burke
District Area
Dane County
State of Wisconsin
29,364
2,326
3,765
3,284
38,739
488,073
5,686,986
29,433
2,315
3,794
3,294
38,836
489,331
5,694,236
29,840
2,315
3,819
3,308
39,282
491,555
5,703,525
Municipality
C. Sun Prairie
T. Sun Prairie
T. Bristol
T. Burke
District Area
Dane County
State of Wisconsin
2010 to
2011
0.2%
-0.5%
0.8%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.1%
30,395
2,324
3,896
3,321
39,936
495,921
5,717,110
PERCENT CHANGE
2011 to
2012 to
2013 to
2012
2013
2014
1.4%
0.0%
0.7%
0.4%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
1.9%
0.4%
2.0%
0.4%
1.7%
0.9%
0.2%
2.7%
0.6%
1.9%
0.2%
2.3%
1.3%
0.3%
est.
2014
est.
2015
31,213
2,337
3,970
3,329
40,849
502,251
5,732,981
31,810
2,352
4,045
3,339
41,546
508,379
5,753,324
2014 to
2015
1.9%
0.6%
1.9%
0.3%
1.7%
1.2%
0.4%
Source: U. S. Census Bureau & Demographic Services Center, WIDOA
School Enrollment Projection Series: Sun Prairie Area School District
10
Sun Prairie Area School District
Figure 4-A
Population for Area Municipalities
35,000
30,000
25,000
Population
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2010
2011
C. Sun Prairie
2012
T. Sun Prairie
2013
2014
T. Bristol
2015
T. Burke
Table 4 and Figure 4-B compares the 2000 and 2010 population by age for the Sun Prairie Area
School District from the U.S. Census Bureau. All age groups including school age populations have
increased considerably over this ten year period.
School Enrollment Projection Series: Sun Prairie Area School District
11
TABLE 4
Population by Age and Gender, 2000-2010
Sun Prairie Area School District
Age
Under 5
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85plus
2010 Total
Females
Males
1,713
Total
3,273
3,252
2,889
2,356
2,346
3,708
3,583
3,283
3,055
2,979
2,673
2,328
1,826
1,134
797
646
594
750
41,472
1,560
1,681
1,571
1,419
1,470
1,208
1,148
1,119
1,227
1,793
1,915
1,756
1,827
1,630
1,653
1,539
1,516
1,447
1,532
1,321
1,352
1,099
1,229
858
968
527
607
349
448
259
387
214
380
231
519
20,163
21,309
Source: U. S. Census Bureau
85plus
Males
2000 Total
Females
1,132
1,074
1,053
1,083
1,041
903
1,206
1,248
1,266
1,186
1,012
869
569
405
332
245
201
109
95
13,955
1,025
997
912
953
1,235
1,235
1,293
1,221
1,111
876
598
437
362
318
291
248
244
14,430
Total
2,206
2,078
2,080
1,953
1,856
2,441
2,483
2,559
2,407
2,123
1,745
1,167
842
694
563
492
357
339
28,385
Age Structure
Figure 4-B
80 to 84
Age
Under 5
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 to 74
75 to 79
80 to 84
85plus
Sun Prairie Area School District
Males
Females
75 to 79
70 to 74
65 to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50 to 54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35 to 39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
Under 5
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Number of People
2000 Census
2010 Census
School Enrollment Projection Series: Sun Prairie Area School District
12
Residential Development
Table 5 shows the number of housing starts in the Sun Prairie Area School District over the past ten
years. Area housing starts have fluctuated from a high of 484 units in 2005 (including 279 single family
homes), to a low of 61 new single family housing starts in 2011. The district area has seen an increase
in new housing starts especially in the construction of multi-family units. New housing in the table
include the entire municipality although only portions of the towns of Burke and Bristol are in the Sun
Prairie Area School District. Other smaller portions of other towns and a section of the City of Madison
are also part of the school district, but this table does not include housing information for these areas.
TABLE 5
School District Area Housing Starts
Sun Prairie Area School District
District Area
TOTAL
Single Family
Two Family
Multi-family
C. Sun Prairie
TOTAL
Single Family
Two Family
Multi-family
T. Sun Prairie
TOTAL
Single Family
Two Family
Multi-family
T. Bristol
TOTAL
Single Family
Two Family
Multi-family
T. Burke
TOTAL
Single Family
Two Family
Multi-family
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
484
279
20
185
465
119
44
302
222
93
20
109
251
81
8
162
117
65
0
52
75
69
2
4
276
61
2
213
405
89
2
314
346
165
10
171
312
151
10
151
383
180
18
185
429
83
44
302
195
66
20
109
233
63
8
162
96
44
0
52
50
44
2
4
250
35
2
213
367
51
2
314
300
119
10
171
275
114
10
151
16
14
2
0
9
9
0
0
4
4
0
0
3
3
0
0
4
4
0
0
4
4
0
0
2
2
0
0
5
5
0
0
7
7
0
0
5
5
0
0
45
45
0
0
22
22
0
0
14
14
0
0
10
10
0
0
13
13
0
0
15
15
0
0
17
17
0
0
30
30
0
0
32
32
0
0
27
27
0
0
40
40
0
0
5
5
0
0
9
9
0
0
5
5
0
0
4
4
0
0
6
6
0
0
7
7
0
0
3
3
0
0
7
7
0
0
5
5
0
0
Source: Demographic Services Center, WIDOA
School Enrollment Projection Series: Sun Prairie Area School District
13
Examining trends in recent housing development can help to explain how in-migration into the Sun
Prairie Area School District area might be affecting school enrollment. If the number of housing starts
in the district area is expected to be reasonably consistent for the next several years, then we assume
that in-migration of school-age children will also remain relatively consistent. If the number of housing
starts is expected to increase significantly above and beyond recent levels, in-migration may play an
increasing role in school district enrollment. However, it is important to recognize that the number of
housing starts in any given year is dependent upon a large number of confounding variables (decisions
of local, county, and state policy makers, residential developers, interest rates, demand for housing,
etc.), making future growth patterns difficult to predict.
The majority of housing development over the last several years has occurred in the City of Sun
Prairie. Most of the development in the area has consisted of single-family homes although the several
multi-family units were constructed throughout this time period. Households in single family homes,
on average, contain more school-aged children than in two family and multi-family complexes.
It is also important to consider that turnover in ownership of existing housing stock also contributes
to changes in enrollment. A district can maintain or even increase enrollment depending upon the
cycle of resident homeowners, regardless of housing starts. For instance, a younger community will
have a higher child-per-household ratio, whereas an older community will have a lower child-perhousehold ration. However, within a few years a turnover in ownership in an older community may
result in an increase in the child-per-household number. As younger families move into the area, the
school district will tend to see new students enrolling into the district’s schools. Absent new housing
development or housing turnover, families age in place and the number of school-aged children
eventually declines. Turnover in ownership does not happen overnight, however, and slow turnover
may occur for several years at varying rates.
Figure 5-A shows the number of residential building permits issued by municipality for communities
that fall within the Sun Prairie Area School District. Figure 5-B shows housing starts in the area by type
of housing unit: single family home, duplex, and multi-family housing unit.
School Enrollment Projection Series: Sun Prairie Area School District
14
Sun Prairie Area School District
Figure 5-A
Area Housing Starts by Municipality
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
C. Sun Prairie
2009
2010
2011
2012
T. Bristol
T. Sun Prairie
2013
2014
T. Burke
Sun Prairie Area School District
Figure 5-B
Area Housing Starts by Type
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2005
2006
2007
Single Family
2008
2009
Two Family
2010
2011
Multi-family
School Enrollment Projection Series: Sun Prairie Area School District
2012
2013
2014
Total
15
Method
In order to generate school enrollment projections, we rely on a commonly used demographic
technique called the “cohort survival” method or the “grade progression ratio” method. This method
advances current students through the school system over time and applies rates of transfer (or
“survival”) as the students who are now in school age from year to year and grade to grade. It is
through these rates of transfer that we make assumptions about how migration into and out of the
district and transfers to and from different schools will impact future enrollment.
Grade Progression Ratios
Table 6 shows the grade progression ratios for the Sun Prairie Area School District. The ratios
measure the effects of in- and out-migration and the transfer of students between private and public
schools. The ratios are calculated for several pairs of years and then averages of these based on
different time frames are calculated for each grade.
TABLE 6
Grade Progression Ratios
Sun Prairie Area School District
YEAR
CHANGES
B:K
K:1
1:2
2:3
3:4
4:5
5:6
6:7
7:8
8:9
9:10
10:11
11:12
06-07/07-08
07-08/08-09
08-09/09-10
09-10/10-11
10-11/11-12
11-12/12-13
12-13/13-14
13-14/14-15
14-15/15-16
1.065
1.036
1.095
1.140
1.050
1.045
1.022
0.992
0.971
0.957
1.022
1.019
1.004
1.004
1.017
1.011
1.038
1.039
0.987
1.010
0.984
1.014
1.014
1.031
1.007
1.021
1.053
0.973
1.025
1.016
1.014
0.998
0.996
1.044
1.018
1.027
0.998
1.008
1.035
0.998
0.992
1.030
1.016
1.017
1.043
1.009
1.018
1.006
0.996
1.006
1.008
0.990
1.048
1.025
1.016
1.034
1.006
1.025
1.004
1.036
1.048
1.047
1.007
0.979
1.026
0.976
1.030
1.006
1.018
1.022
1.023
1.034
1.030
1.030
1.015
1.000
1.006
1.048
1.092
1.089
1.039
1.130
1.084
1.052
1.124
1.063
1.085
1.027
1.018
1.050
0.962
0.977
1.038
1.011
1.002
1.038
0.998
1.054
0.995
0.947
0.981
0.991
0.966
0.945
0.976
0.964
0.962
0.981
0.989
1.040
1.019
0.946
0.974
1.043
0.988
1.015
1.010
Baseline
1.046
1.012
1.014
1.013
1.015
1.012
1.025
1.013
1.039
1.070
1.008
0.968
1.003
5 Year Trend
1.016
1.022
1.025
1.017
1.020
1.015
1.029
1.021
1.055
1.048
1.017
0.965
1.006
2 Year "Trend"
0.982
1.038
1.037
1.023
1.030
1.036
1.027
1.028
1.064
1.034
1.024
0.971
1.012
The grade progression ratios can be interpreted in the following manner. The Baseline ratio for 1:2
is 1.014. This means that in the Sun Prairie Area School District, the second grade is on average 1.4%
larger than the first grade class was the previous year (the result of transfers from other schools and inmigration into the district). The B:K (birth to kindergarten) Baseline ratio of 1.046 indicates that, on
average, an additional 4.6% of births from outside the district enroll in kindergarten in Sun Prairie Area
School District.
School Enrollment Projection Series: Sun Prairie Area School District
16
In order to examine future enrollment under different growth assumptions, we generate three sets
of grade progression ratios that correspond to the different projection models shown later in this
report. In addition to the Baseline ratios (averages 10 years of enrollment), we examine rates of
transfer in the last 5 years and the last 2 years effectively weighing enrollment change patterns from
different time periods more heavily than the Baseline. Any significant deviations from the rates of inand out-migration in the district area will have a corresponding effect on enrollment. These additional
models allow us to examine alternative outcomes compared to the overall trends of the Baseline
model. Figure 6 shows the differences between these three sets of grade progression ratios.
Sun Prairie Area School District
Figure 6
Grade Progression Ratios, by Model
1.100
1.075
Grade Progression Ratio
1.050
1.025
1.000
0.975
0.950
0.925
0.900
B:K
K:1
1:2
2:3
Baseline Trend
3:4
4:5
5:6
6:7
7:8
5 Year Trend
School Enrollment Projection Series: Sun Prairie Area School District
8:9
9:10
10:11
11:12
2 Year Trend
17
4K Grade Progression Ratios
Table 7 shows the observed transfer ratio between birth to 4K and 4K to K for the last seven years
and the five year and two year grade progression ratio averages. 4K:K ratios are provided but not used
in any of the models. The five year average grade progression will be used to project 4K enrollment in
the Baseline, Five Year, and Kindergarten trend models while the two year average will be used to
project 4K in the Two Year “Trend” model.
TABLE 7
4K Grade Progression Ratios
Sun Prairie Area School District
08-09/09-10
09-10/10-11
10-11/11-12
11-12/12-13
12-13/13-14
13-14/14-15
13-14/14-15
5 Year Trend
2 Year "Tend"
B:4K
0.793
0.900
0.896
0.874
0.858
0.817
0.909
0.871
0.863
4K:K
1.438
1.167
1.167
1.169
1.156
1.188
1.169
1.172
School Enrollment Projection Series: Sun Prairie Area School District
18
School Enrollment Projections
When considering all of the projections provided in this report for decision-making, it is important
to recognize that population projections of all types, including school enrollment projections, are more
accurate in the immediate future than they are farther into the future.
Baseline Projections
The Baseline model (Table 8) projects enrollment using the assumption that average trends year to
year, grade to grade, will continue into the future. This model assumes that long term trends (past ten
years) in enrollment and migration will be representative of future trends in the district. This model
projects that PK-12 enrollment will increase over the next five years, increasing from 8,120 students in
2015/16 to 8,726 students in 2020/21. This is an increase of 606 students over the next five years.
TABLE 8
Baseline Projection Model
Sun Prairie Area School District
SCHOOL YEAR
20-21
21-22
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
22-23
23-24
24-25
25-26
PK
4K
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
PPA 10
PPA 11
PPA 12
40
476
591
569
600
642
610
585
632
557
569
598
637
545
556
3
28
45
40
468
572
598
577
608
652
617
599
640
579
609
603
617
546
3
28
45
40
490
562
579
606
584
617
659
633
607
665
619
614
584
618
3
28
45
40
442
588
569
587
614
593
624
676
641
631
712
624
595
585
3
28
45
40
420
619
595
576
594
623
600
640
684
666
675
718
604
596
3
28
45
40
430
637
627
603
584
603
630
615
648
711
712
680
695
606
3
28
45
40
440
649
645
635
611
592
610
646
622
673
761
718
659
697
3
28
45
40
450
661
657
653
643
620
599
625
654
647
720
767
695
660
3
28
45
40
460
673
669
666
662
653
628
614
633
680
692
726
743
697
3
28
45
40
470
685
681
678
674
672
661
643
622
658
727
698
703
745
3
28
45
TOTAL
8,283
8,401
8,553
8,596
8,726
8,897
9,074
9,169
9,311
9,433
K-5
6-7
8-9
10-12
3,597
1,189
1,167
1,814
3,623
1,240
1,188
1,842
3,607
1,240
1,285
1,893
3,574
1,317
1,343
1,880
3,607
1,324
1,341
1,994
3,684
1,262
1,423
2,057
3,743
1,268
1,434
2,150
3,834
1,280
1,367
2,199
3,950
1,248
1,372
2,242
4,051
1,265
1,385
2,222
School Enrollment Projection Series: Sun Prairie Area School District
19
5 Year Trend Projections
The 5 Year Trend model (Table 9) uses the grade progression ratios from the last five years and
recent birth trends to project what future enrollments would look like if more recent patterns were
representative of future trends. With recent migration rates and birth trends weighted more heavily,
PK-12 enrollment in the school district is projected to increase from 8,120 students in 2015/16 to 8,761
students in 2020/21. This is an increase of 641 students over the next five years.
TABLE 9
5 Year Trend Projection Model
Sun Prairie Area School District
SCHOOL YEAR
20-21
21-22
GRADE
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
22-23
23-24
24-25
25-26
PK
4K
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
PPA 10
PPA 11
PPA 12
40
476
574
574
607
645
613
587
635
561
578
586
643
543
558
3
28
45
40
468
555
586
589
617
657
622
604
648
592
606
596
621
547
3
28
45
40
490
546
567
601
598
629
667
640
616
683
621
617
575
624
3
28
45
40
442
571
557
582
611
610
639
686
653
650
716
632
595
579
3
28
45
40
420
572
584
571
592
623
620
657
701
689
681
729
610
599
3
28
45
40
430
568
584
598
581
603
632
637
671
739
722
693
703
613
3
28
45
40
440
570
580
599
608
592
612
651
650
708
775
735
669
708
3
28
45
40
450
572
582
595
609
620
602
630
664
686
742
788
709
673
3
28
45
40
460
574
584
597
605
621
630
619
643
700
719
755
761
714
3
28
45
40
470
576
587
599
607
616
631
648
631
678
734
732
728
765
3
28
45
TOTAL
8,296
8,423
8,591
8,640
8,761
8,891
9,012
9,037
9,097
9,119
K-5
6-7
8-9
10-12
3,599
1,196
1,164
1,820
3,627
1,251
1,198
1,839
3,609
1,256
1,304
1,892
3,570
1,340
1,366
1,881
3,561
1,358
1,370
2,013
3,567
1,308
1,461
2,086
3,562
1,301
1,482
2,187
3,580
1,294
1,428
2,246
3,611
1,262
1,420
2,305
3,616
1,279
1,412
2,301
School Enrollment Projection Series: Sun Prairie Area School District
20
2 Year “Trend” Projections
The 2 Year “Trend” model (Table 10) uses the grade progression ratios from the last two years to
project what future enrollments would look like if even more recent patterns were representative of
future trends. For the 2 Year “Trend” model, PK-12 enrollment is projected to increase from 8,120
students in 2015/16 to 8,903 students in 2020/21. This is an increase of 783 students over the next five
years.
TABLE 10
2 Year "Trend" Projection Model
Sun Prairie Area School District
SCHOOL YEAR
20-21
21-22
GRADE
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
22-23
23-24
24-25
25-26
PK
4K
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
PPA 10
PPA 11
PPA 12
40
472
554
584
614
648
619
599
634
566
583
578
647
547
562
3
28
45
40
463
537
575
605
628
668
642
615
652
602
603
592
629
554
3
28
45
40
485
527
557
597
619
647
692
659
633
693
622
617
575
636
3
28
45
40
438
552
547
578
610
638
670
711
678
673
717
637
600
582
3
28
45
40
416
553
573
568
591
629
661
689
732
721
696
734
619
607
3
28
45
40
426
548
574
594
581
609
652
679
708
778
746
713
713
627
3
28
45
40
436
551
569
595
608
598
631
670
698
754
805
764
693
722
3
28
45
40
446
553
572
591
609
626
620
648
689
743
779
824
742
701
3
28
45
40
456
555
574
593
604
627
649
637
667
732
768
798
800
751
3
28
45
40
466
557
576
595
606
622
650
667
655
709
757
787
775
810
3
28
45
TOTAL
8,322
8,480
8,677
8,748
8,903
9,063
9,208
9,257
9,326
9,348
K-5
6-7
8-9
10-12
3,618
1,200
1,161
1,832
3,655
1,267
1,204
1,850
3,639
1,292
1,316
1,905
3,595
1,389
1,390
1,895
3,574
1,420
1,417
2,036
3,557
1,387
1,524
2,129
3,552
1,368
1,558
2,254
3,569
1,337
1,522
2,343
3,601
1,303
1,500
2,425
3,606
1,322
1,467
2,448
School Enrollment Projection Series: Sun Prairie Area School District
21
Kindergarten Trend Projections
For the Kindergarten Trend model (Table 11), we perform a kindergarten trend analysis to project
the number of future kindergarten students, rather than relying upon the traditional birth to
kindergarten (B:K) progression ratio. Then, the 5 Year Trend progression ratios are used for projecting
the other grades (1-12) in the district. According to this hybrid projection model, PK-12 enrollment
would increase over the next five years from 8,120 students in 2015/16 to 8,888 students in 2020/21,
or an increase of 768 students.
TABLE 11
Kindergarten Trend Projection Model
Sun Prairie Area School District
GRADE
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
24-25
25-26
PK
4K
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
PPA 10
PPA 11
PPA 12
40
476
575
574
607
645
613
587
635
561
578
586
643
543
558
3
28
45
40
468
582
587
589
617
657
622
604
648
592
606
596
621
547
3
28
45
40
490
588
594
602
598
629
667
640
616
683
621
617
575
624
3
28
45
40
442
595
601
609
612
610
639
686
653
650
716
632
595
579
3
28
45
40
420
601
607
616
619
624
620
657
701
689
681
729
610
599
3
28
45
40
430
608
614
623
626
631
634
637
671
739
722
693
703
613
3
28
45
40
440
614
621
629
633
638
641
652
650
708
775
735
669
708
3
28
45
40
450
621
627
636
640
646
648
659
665
686
742
788
709
673
3
28
45
40
460
627
634
643
647
653
655
667
673
702
719
755
761
714
3
28
45
40
470
634
641
650
654
660
663
674
681
710
736
732
728
765
3
28
45
TOTAL
8,297
8,451
8,661
8,735
8,888
9,060
9,228
9,307
9,425
9,512
K-5
6-7
8-9
10-12
3,600
1,196
1,164
1,820
3,654
1,251
1,198
1,839
3,679
1,256
1,304
1,892
3,666
1,340
1,366
1,881
3,687
1,358
1,370
2,013
3,736
1,308
1,461
2,086
3,777
1,303
1,482
2,187
3,818
1,325
1,428
2,246
3,859
1,340
1,421
2,305
3,900
1,355
1,446
2,301
School Enrollment Projection Series: Sun Prairie Area School District
22
Comparison of Projection Models
Figures 7-11 and Tables 12-16 compare the four enrollment projection models broken down by
total PK-12 district enrollment and by grade groupings.
Sun Prairie Area School District
Figure 7
PK-12 Enrollment History and Projections
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
Baseline
5 Year Trend
2 Year Trend
Kindergarten Trend
Actual
TABLE 12
Summary of PK-12 Enrollment Projections
Sun Prairie Area School District
Baseline
5 Year Trend
2 Year "Trend"
Kindergarten Trend
16-17
8,284
8,296
8,322
8,297
17-18
8,400
8,423
8,480
8,451
18-19
8,553
8,591
8,677
8,661
19-20
8,595
8,640
8,748
8,735
20-21
8,726
8,761
8,903
8,888
21-22
8,897
8,891
9,063
9,060
22-23
9,074
9,012
9,208
9,228
23-24
9,169
9,037
9,257
9,307
24-25
9,311
9,097
9,326
9,425
25-26
9,433
9,119
9,348
9,512
PK-12 enrollment for 2015/16 is 8,120. All models project increasing PK-12 enrollment with the
Kindergarten Trend model indicating the greatest amount of increase while the Five Year Trend model
projects the least amount of increase. PK-12 enrollment projections five years from now (2020/21)
forecast a range of enrollment from 8,726 to 8,903.
School Enrollment Projection Series: Sun Prairie Area School District
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Sun Prairie Area School District
Figure 8
K-5 Enrollment History and Projections
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
Baseline
5 Year Trend
Kindergarten Trend
2 Year Trend
Actual
TABLE 13
Summary of K-5 Enrollment Projections
Sun Prairie Area School District
Baseline
5 Year Trend
2 Year "Trend"
Kindergarten Trend
16-17
3,596
3,599
3,618
3,600
17-18
3,623
3,627
3,655
3,654
18-19
3,607
3,609
3,639
3,679
19-20
3,574
3,570
3,595
3,666
20-21
3,608
3,561
3,574
3,687
21-22
3,684
3,567
3,557
3,736
22-23
3,743
3,562
3,552
3,777
23-24
3,834
3,580
3,569
3,818
24-25
3,950
3,611
3,601
3,859
25-26
4,051
3,616
3,606
3,900
K-5 enrollment for 2015/16 is 3,584. All models project slightly increasing enrollment over the next
four years. The Baseline and Kindergarten Trend models project significant increasing enrollment over
time, while the Five Year and Two Year trend models project steady enrollment because of the steady
birth trends in recent years. K-5 enrollment projections five years from now (2020/21) forecast a range
of enrollment from 3,561 to 3,687.
School Enrollment Projection Series: Sun Prairie Area School District
24
Sun Prairie Area School District
Figure 9
6-7 Enrollment History and Projections
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
Baseline
5 Year Trend
Kindergarten Trend
2 Year Trend
Actual
TABLE 14
Summary of 6-7 Enrollment Projections
Sun Prairie Area School District
Baseline
5 Year Trend
2 Year "Trend"
Kindergarten Trend
16-17
1,189
1,196
1,200
1,196
17-18
1,240
1,251
1,267
1,251
18-19
1,240
1,256
1,292
1,256
19-20
1,317
1,340
1,389
1,340
20-21
1,324
1,358
1,420
1,358
21-22
1,262
1,308
1,387
1,308
22-23
1,268
1,301
1,368
1,303
23-24
1,280
1,294
1,337
1,325
24-25
1,248
1,262
1,303
1,340
25-26
1,265
1,279
1,322
1,355
6-7 enrollment for 2015/16 is 1,098. At middle school, all models project increasing enrollment in
the foreseeable future. 6-7 enrollment projections five years from now (2020/21) predict a range of
enrollment from 1,324 to 1,420.
School Enrollment Projection Series: Sun Prairie Area School District
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Sun Prairie Area School District
Figure 10
8-9 Enrollment History and Projections
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
Baseline
5 Year Trend
Kindergarten Trend
2 Year Trend
Actual
TABLE 15
Summary of 8-9 Enrollment Projections
Sun Prairie Area School District
Baseline
5 Year Trend
2 Year "Trend"
Kindergarten Trend
16-17
1,168
1,164
1,161
1,164
17-18
1,188
1,198
1,204
1,198
18-19
1,285
1,304
1,316
1,304
19-20
1,343
1,366
1,390
1,366
20-21
1,341
1,370
1,417
1,370
21-22
1,423
1,461
1,524
1,461
22-23
1,434
1,482
1,558
1,482
23-24
1,367
1,428
1,522
1,428
24-25
1,372
1,420
1,500
1,421
25-26
1,385
1,412
1,467
1,446
8-9 enrollment for 2015/16 is 1,191. At the upper middle school grades, all models project slightly
less enrollment next year followed by increasing enrollment. Enrollment projections five years from
now (2020/21) predict a range of enrollment from 1,341 to 1,417.
School Enrollment Projection Series: Sun Prairie Area School District
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Sun Prairie Area School District
Figure 11
10-12 Enrollment History and Projections
2,600
2,400
2,200
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
Baseline
5 Year Trend
Kindergarten Trend
2 Year Trend
Actual
TABLE 16
Summary of 10-12 Enrollment Projections
Sun Prairie Area School District
Baseline
5 Year Trend
2 Year "Trend"
Kindergarten Trend
16-17
1,814
1,820
1,832
1,820
17-18
1,842
1,839
1,850
1,839
18-19
1,892
1,892
1,905
1,892
19-20
1,880
1,881
1,895
1,881
20-21
1,994
2,013
2,036
2,013
21-22
2,057
2,086
2,129
2,086
22-23
2,149
2,187
2,254
2,187
23-24
2,199
2,246
2,343
2,246
24-25
2,242
2,305
2,425
2,305
25-26
2,221
2,301
2,448
2,301
10-12 enrollment for 2015/16 is 1,706. In high school, all projection models forecast increasing
enrollment for the foreseeable future as large cohorts of middle school students enter the high school.
10-12 enrollment projections five years from now (2020/21) project a range of enrollment from 1,994
to 2,036.
School Enrollment Projection Series: Sun Prairie Area School District
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Conclusions
These district-level enrollment projections are based on models that incorporate recent past and
current demographic information as well as the district’s own enrollment data and assumptions about
future housing development in the school district area. Because most of the students in the district’s
schools over the next few years have already been born or are already in school, and because their
grade progression from one year to another is highly predictable, the total district-level projections
should be viewed as having high accuracy over the next few years. After a few years, and increasingly
for the lower elementary grades, actual enrollment figures will deviate from these projections by ever
increasing amounts. The reason for this is that birth trends, in-migration of pre-school age children,
and student transfers into the district are more difficult to predict. As with nearly all types of forecasts,
accuracy in these enrollment projections decreases over time.
The projections provided in this report point towards increasing enrollment for the next decade,
though each model points to slightly different rates of growth. The Kindergarten Trend model project
higher enrollment than the other models. The Five Year Trend model projects the least amount of
enrollment increases. Recently more multi-family homes than single family homes are being
constructed in the school district area. The district saw slightly less in the number of single family
homes in 2014 than in 2013. All grade grouping enrollment is expected to increase in the near term. If
these current levels of in-migration into the district continue into the future, then the district should
expect continued enrollment increases especially in the upper grades as students advance from grade
to grade.
Because the projections found in this report incorporate the consequences of migration to and
from the district, any significant and sustained interruption of current or recent past migration
patterns will erode these models’ accuracy from the initiation point of the new pattern. The various
projection models provide a realistic range of migration and transfer effects on the school district.
Enrollment growth should be closely monitored for the next few years, and compared with these
projections, to determine the trajectory of future growth. This type of monitoring program helps the
district to determine which of the models seems to be the most realistic to use for planning purposes.
School Enrollment Projection Series: Sun Prairie Area School District
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