The Marine Socio-Economics Project (MSEP)
is a project funded by The Tubney Charitable Trust and coordinated by NEF
(the new economics foundation) in partnership with the WWF, the MCS,
the RSPB, and The Wildlife Trusts. The project aims to build socio-economic
capacity and cooperation between NGOs and aid their engagement with all
sectors using the marine environment.
What are the major trends in
aquaculture?
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Global demand for fish is rising faster than ever before in
human history. This coincides with immense population
growth and dietary changes. Globally, marine fish catches
have levelled off and the majority of established fishing
areas have reached their maximum potential. As a result,
wild catches are not able to meet the growing global
demand for seafood.
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Figure 1. Global catches and aquaculture.
Price (US$ per tonne)
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80,0,000
60,0,000
40,0,000
Aquaculture
20,0,000
Capture
Aquaculture is on the increase on an almost
global level, in terms of scale, intensity,
and technology (sub-Saharan Africa is the
exception). The declining catch of wild fish on
a global scale has meant that other sources of
fish protein need to make up for the shortfall.
This is the role that aquaculture is seeking
to fulfill, but of course the location, type and
species being cultivated (and in turn the
species and feed composition used to feed
those fish) have a massive impact on what the
overall effectiveness of aquaculture is and will
be. If we are feeding 5 kg of wild fish to produce
1 kg of farmed fish, we are losing ‘fish protein’
in that process. This is clearly not going to solve
the problem of overfishing and in many cases
will exacerbate it.
1
2010
2006
2002
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Aquaculture continues to be the fastest growing
animal food-producing sector. ‘World per capita
food fish supply increased from an average
of 9.9 kg (live weight equivalent) in the 1960s
to 18.4 kg in 2009, and preliminary estimates
for 2010 point to a further increase in fish
consumption to 18.6 kg’.1 Aquaculture has
played a major role in this increase and is set to
overtake capture fisheries as a source of food in
the very near future as Figure 1 shows. From a
production of less than 1 million tonnes per year
in the early 1950s, production now exceeds 90
million tonnes per annum.2
1http://www.fao.org/docrep/016/i2727e/i2727e.pdf
2http://www.fao.org/3/a-i3720e/index.html
MSEP Facts & Figures Series 5: What are the major trends in aquaculture?
Enforcement of regulation, better governance,
and increased scientific understanding are
requirements for a sustainable future. Producers
and producer organisatons, alongside scientists
and civil society organisations, will need to
play an increasing role in decision-making
and regulation to ensure that the impacts
of aquaculture do not exacerbate existing
problems or create new ones. The global
population is increasing and, in order to
maintain at least the current level of per-capita
consumption of aquatic foods, the world will
require an additional 23 million tonnes by 2020
according to the FAO.3
The next two sections highlight some key
findings from Defra’s Strategic review of
the potential for aquaculture to contribute
to the future security of food and non-food
products and services in the UK, conducted
in 2009.
Some trends and implications for
aquaculture in the UK: Food4
• Total fish and shellfish consumption will
increase alongside population growth,
which is forecast to reach 71 million by
2035 (Defra). In the UK, per capita fish
consumption may increase as a result of
healthier lifestyle choices and 1.5 million
additional seafood meals per week will be
required to match current consumption
considering the population growth forecasts.
• The majority of fish for the increased
consumption will need to come from
domestic aquaculture and/or imports
because capture fishery production has
plateaued or is in decline.
• The disproportionately higher cost of fish
and shellfish products (because of limited
supplies or higher production costs) may
reduce the amount of fish consumed
by lower income groups. The trend for
increasing real prices of fresh and frozen fish
is likely.
3http://www.fao.org/fishery/sofia/en
4http://archive.defra.gov.uk/foodfarm/fisheries/documents/aquaculture-report0904.pdf
2
• Demand for more sustainable or organic fish
products may impact the development of
aquaculture in the UK.
• New niche species may be consumed in the
UK as a result of TV shows raising awareness
of different species combined with the
alternative tastes within different communities
in the UK.
• There may be increasing pressure on coastal
land use and inshore resources, which
will affect availability of suitable sites for
aquaculture (sea wall and flood defences,
renewable energy installations, and marine
protected areas (MPAs) may also impact
areas available for aquaculture).
• Increased water abstraction and pressure
on freshwater resources may limit freshwater
aquaculture for species such as trout which
together with mussels are the main English
species cultivated.
• The increasing pressure on inadequately
managed wild fish stocks globally will impact
supply chains to the UK as well as overall
import dependence for seafood.
Some trends and implications for
aquaculture in the UK: Non-food5
• Increased recreational fisheries and demand
for restocking key species may increase
which would impact production. An increase
in pressure from urban populations with
regard to recreational angling (on welfare
grounds) may, however, also be felt.
• The demand for ornamental and aquatic
goods and services increases as a function
of both population and urbanisation, both of
which will impact the UK aquaculture industry.
• A static or declining production from many
food capture fisheries will in turn increase
pressure on wild ornamental stocks (as a
means of generating revenue in developing
countries).
5http://archive.defra.gov.uk/foodfarm/fisheries/documents/aquaculture-report0904.pdf
MSEP Facts & Figures Series 5: What are the major trends in aquaculture?
Figure 2. Whole fish used for different purposes (tonnes, ‘000)
25,000
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0
2000
Aquaculture
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Oil for human consumption
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Oil other uses
• The increasing requirement to produce iconic
species such as salmon through domestic
aquaculture production may make disease
and other negative environmental issues
more prevalent.6
• The development of novel aquaculture
production in niche areas (cosmetics,
chemicals, pharmaceuticals) to meet
expanding domestic demand may increase.
New forms of aquaculture and new reared
species will provide an area for potential
expansion which includes systems for the
intensive production of species such as
bass, turbot, tilapia, striped bass, barramundi,
catfish, and prawns. Lobster hatcheries for restocking, aquaponics,7 and other innovations
are also gathering momentum.
• A significant increase in production of micro
and macroalgae as raw material sources is
predicted going forwards.
• The volumes of whole fish being used as
feed are decreasing internationally (IFFO,
Figure 2) which should mean the UK will
decrease as well.
• The use of fisheries by-products is
increasing: it has now reached over 25% of
global production.8
• Sites and opportunity for expansion of
trout farms is limited. Water quality is the
main limiting factor. Further increases may
6http://www.fao.org/fishery/topic/14894/en
7http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aquaponics
2005
2006
Other land animals
2007
Pigs
2008
Chickens
be achieved (or may be limited) by site
developments (larger cages or more cages),
disease control (vaccinations or stock
selection), and changes in growth rates
through feeds or genetic improvements
(selective breeding or GM).
• The main factor impacting growth in UK
aquaculture was price competitiveness, as
the UK has historically enjoyed a good supply
of wild-caught fish. UK consumers have a
limited palate when it comes to seafood and
as a result are reluctant to try new species
and products. This limits the possibility to
develop diversity in terms of species and in
doing so foster resilience against diseases.9
• Salmon production in Scotland increased
when production was reduced by disease in
Chile. Scottish farms are very largely owned
by multinational companies with scope to
switch production between countries.
• Static trout production could reflect a failure
to develop demand for table fish and a
preference to cater more for angling and
tourism (e.g. by supplying local restaurants).
According to the British Trout Association
(BTA): ‘To support a trout farm a clean
river is needed for adequate water supply,
which limits expansion possibilities in the
UK. The majority of fish farming concerns
are small with owners doing much of the
work themselves. Production is increasingly
9 Summary of the 2013 Economic Performance Report on the EU
Aquaculture Sector (STECF 13-30) & Defra, 2012
8 IFFO, 2012
3
MSEP Facts & Figures Series 5: What are the major trends in aquaculture?
Figure 3. US$ oil prices 1950–2013
Source: Energy Information Administration – EIE 11
Dollars per barrel
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concentrated on farms producing 100 tonnes
or more. The Industry is moving away from
smaller producers, as they are becoming less
competitive. Competition from larger trout
producers, other fish species and cheaper
imported fish are reducing profit margins as
prices remain the same or fall.’10
The impact of rising fossil fuel prices on
aquaculture
With oil prices set to increase and with
increasing price volatility the industry will have
to adapt and ensure that both feeds and the
aquaculture production sites are energy efficient.
As Figure 3 makes clear, oil prices have been
rising since the 1970s, very markedly since
2005 and this trend will continue into the
future. Aquaculture which is fossil-fuel intense
and feeds which rely on fossil-fuel intense
production will have to adapt and reduce fuel
use if they are to succeed in the future.
2017
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seafood protein, both for aquaculture feeds and
for the UK table, our consumption will have to
decrease drastically as wider global changes
and trends are felt. Aquaculture is emerging as
part of this picture, but the manner in which it is
conducted varies greatly and so, therefore, does
its possible contribution to a sustainable future
for seafood products.12
Briefings on Fisheries flows and
aquaculture
1. Fisheries flows – an introduction
2. How do we deal with the Uk’s seafood
shortfall?
3. Aquaculture in Europe and the UK
4. Subsidies to UK aquaculture
5. Sustainability issues in aquaculture
6. Supply chains and processing
7. Trends in aquaculture
Conclusions
8. Consumption in the UK
Sustainable aquaculture is needed to reduce
the projected potential shortfalls in seafood
supplies that are likely to result from an
increasing domestic, EU, and world population
[the population of the UK is expected to
continue to grow and reach 65 million by 2017].
Trends also indicate increasing per capita
consumption both with the EU and globally in
line with population growth. This, in conjunction
with reduced access to and availability of
seafood imports, higher cost imports as a result
of increasing fossil fuel prices and stagnant
or declining wild fisheries landings, mean that
without finding a sustainable way to produce
4
9. Where we eat our fish
Series 5 was written and researched by Chris Williams (Marine
Socio-Economics Project Coordinator at NEF). All the data
examined in this series come from the UK Government, The
MMO or Defra – unless otherwise referenced.These data
sources can be found on the MSEP website:
http://www.mseproject.net/data-sources
10 Summary of the 2013 Economic Performance Report on the EU
Aquaculture Sector (STECF 13-30)
11http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=F000000__3&f=A
12 http://archive.defra.gov.uk/foodfarm/fisheries/documents/aquaculture-report0904.pdf
Published by the New Economics Foundation (NEF), October 2014.
www.neweconomics.org Tel: 020 7820 6300 Registered charity number 1055254.