The Personal Investment Guide to the Feed-In Tariffs Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... The Feed-In Tariffs were created, with crossparty support, to financially incentivise investment in property-based renewable energy installations, as well as smaller scale standalone systems. They are designed to stimulate the decentralised renewable energy market into generating 8% of the UK’s energy. This will significantly contribute to the country’s Renewable Energy Directive target, a legally binding target set by the EU, whereby the country must increase the percentage of energy generated from renewable sources from around 3% today to 15% by 2020. To stimulate this investment, the Feed-In Tariffs were designed to produce annual returns that would attract new entrants. As such, the Feed-In Tariffs for renewable electricity generation are structured to provide a 5% to 8% annual return depending on the type of technology, scale and site specific factors. Since the FeedIn Tariffs went live on April 1st 2010, such returns have started to be realised and there has been a surge of investor interest. It should be noted that in April 2011, the introduction of the Renewable Heat Incentive is due to begin. As the world’s first payment scheme for the generation of renewable heat, it is a ground-breaking initiative that is ideally suited to the UK’s energy consumption requirements. It is designed to offer even higher return than the Feed-In Tariffs, aiming to deliver a 12% annual return. A further personal investment guide to Renewable Heat Incentive will be published when the details of the scheme are finalised. Some key characteristics which make the FITs extremely attractive to investors: 1. 2. 3. 4. Exceptional returns Low risk Tax efficient Inflation protection The details of these unique characteristics are explained in more detail later in this guide. This Guide will explain how the tariffs work as an investment opportunity, what investors need to do and provide examples of the sort of financial returns that can be realised. Brief introduction to the new Feed-In Tariffs The Feed-In Tariffs will pay owners of renewable electricity installations a guaranteed amount for every kilowatt-hour of electricity generated. Not only will owners of properties with renewable energy systems get paid for the electricity they generate, but they will also make a difference to the UK’s environmental sustainability. It works as follows: 1. Get paid for the electricity you generate regardless of whether you use in your property or sell back to the grid For more on how the tariffs work, the technologies that are eligible and other rules and requirements, please see the following resources: 2. Save money by reducing the amount of electricity you buy from your energy supplier Ownergy’s Simple Guide to the Renewable Energy Tariffs www.ownergy.co.uk/tariffs/ Any property is eligible, although there are limitations on the renewable energy technologies that are allowed within the scheme and different sized systems receive different payments per kilowatt hour. Our dedicated Feed-In Tariffs Information Site www.fitariffs.co.uk The Personal Investment Guide to the Feed-In Tariffs 2 How the Feed-In Tariffs work as an investment opportunity .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Scope Large systems The principle benefit of the Feed-In Tariffs is that they are Government-backed investments which will produce predictable annual returns once the system is installed and accredited. Most properties will be suitable for one or more systems. However, different characteristics of the property, such as roof pitch direction and available land area, will determine the levels of possible returns (as explained below). In addition, the tariffs encourage standalone systems which will be suitable for larger scale investments. For investors wishing to invest well over £100,000, a standalone system will often provide the most straightforward opportunity. These can vary from individual wind turbines or hydro projects, to solar parks up to 5MW in size of which several are being considered in the UK. Investor’s home As the income from the Feed-In Tariffs is Income Tax exempt if the energy is mainly used within the property, the use of the investor’s own property for the installation of the systems is tax-optimal. Financial Returns: an investment of £15,000 in solar photovoltaics would on average produce an annual financial return of £1,350 for 25 years, before RPI-indexation. For an investor within the 50% tax band, this will be worth 11% return per year. Landlords Since the owner of the installation is the beneficiary of the tariff income, a landlord is perfectly positioned to substantially enhance their property investment or portfolio. Landlords can choose to provide the energy for free as a rental incentive or calculate higher monthly rents based on the in kind benefit the tenant will receive. Financial Returns: returns for larger systems vary quite considerably depending on the technology type, location and whether there is an onsite requirement for the electricity * Please not that all costs given above are based on average installation costs over the first six months of 2010. Tariff lifetime Different systems have different tariff lifetimes based around the anticipated life expectancy of the average system – see table in appendix. This gives the investor the flexibility to choose the pace of return and to diversify the return horizon. Investors should also be aware that for the Feed-In Tariffs, degression applies from April 2012 onwards for new installations, to offset anticipated reductions in technology costs. This means that new entrants from that point onwards will be eligible for reduced Feed-In Tariffs but returns should remain stable. For the avoidance of doubt, all existing installations will be unaffected and the payment guaranteed at the rate that applied when the system was installed. Financial Returns: the size of system could be similar to the above for a three or four bedroomed home, but without the tax exemption benefit, would produce a return of 8% per year. Commercial The larger size of the average business premises improves the scope for investment and businesses have the advantage of being able to write down their capital expenditure costs of the system. Financial Returns: a £50,000 solar PV system on a commercial premises would produce an income of approximately £3,600 per year. A larger system gives the advantage of economies of scale so a system costing £250,000 would produce a total ROI of £562,500 for solar PV whilst at a similar investment level form a wind turbine of £225,000 would produce a total ROI of £820,000. The Personal Investment Guide to the Feed-In Tariffs 3 Renewable electricity systems eligible for the Feed-In Tariffs .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... System selection For the different bands of payment for each type of system, please see the appendix on page 11. Examples of how tax relief would add further benefit are also included within the the appendix. The below is a brief overview of the type of property that is suitable and the sort of returns that can be expected. For details on the systems themselves, go to www.ownergy.co.uk/energy PV Solar photovoltaics (PV) are the most widely suitable of the Feed-In Tariffs systems and have the longest tariff lifetime of 25 years. The optimum location is a south facing pitched roof with no overshadowing. The level of investment is highly variable from a modest £12,000 system for a three or four bedroomed house to over £100,000 for a large system on the roof of a commercial building. Wind The majority of wind turbines are only suitable for rural, exposed locations. However, where a suitable site is identified, the returns are among the most attractive of any of the systems. The smallest practicable systems start at around £25,000 for a 6kW system and can return approximately £60,000 over the 20 year tariff lifetime. Hydro In early 2010, the Environment Agency identified 30,000 sites across the UK that are suitable for small-scale hydro schemes that could be considered under the Feed-In Tariffs. Sizes of system and associated costs are almost entirely locationspecific, but they have the benefit of producing very steady electricity generation. Example figures for a 25kW system, for example, are £200,000 capital cost and annual return of £15,000 per year for 20 years Anaerobic Digestion Whilst the only properties that are suitable are those with substantial on-site organic waste or low cost produce, such as a farm, anaerobic digestion is likely to improve considerably as an investment opportunity. Currently producing one of the lowest annual returns under the Feed-In Tariffs, the Coalition Government has indicated a strong desire to stimulate investment in anaerobic digestion and so it is expected that the payment rates will be revised upwards. Combined Heat & Power (CHP) At the moment only small trial systems are eligible under the Feed-In Tariffs, as such it is possibly too early to say what the final return will look like. The Personal Investment Guide to the Feed-In Tariffs 4 Financial returns .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... The Feed-In Tariffs scheme has been designed to deliver owners of eligible installations with a Real IRR (Internal Rate of Return) of 5-10% over 20-25 years. Index linked In addition, the Feed-In Tariffs are Indexed-linked (to the RPI) and the nominal returns, in the presence of inflation, will therefore be higher – i.e. with average inflation at 2%, the nominal IRR should be in the range of 7-12%. Note that average annual RPI inflation since January 1980 has been 4% (see graph below). Annual RPIHistorical InflationInflation 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% Data source: Bank of England Jan 10 Jan 08 Jan 06 Jan 04 Jan 02 Jan 00 Jan 98 Jan 96 Jan 94 Jan 92 Jan 90 Jan 88 Jan 86 Jan 84 Jan 82 0.0% Annual RPI Inflation - Previous 12 Months 5yr Moving Average Income Tax exemption Where private homeowners install Feed-In Tariffs eligible systems mainly for their own use, the income will be entirely exempt from income tax. To illustrate, for a homeowner paying a marginal income tax rate of 50%, and with average inflation at 2%, the Taxable Equivalent Nominal IRR would be in the range of 9-13% System Solar PV (25 years) Wind turbine (20 years) Size 2kW 3kW 4kW 13kW 23kW 59kW 6kW 12.8kW Cost £10,000 £15,000 £20,000 £60,000 £100,000 £250,000 £20.000 £46,000 Annual Return Total Financial Return £825 £1,350 £1,850 £5,300 £8,750 £20,000 £2,080 £7,210 £20,625 £33,750 £46,250 £112,500 £187,500 £450,000 £41,600 £144,200 IRR 8.5% 9.5% 9.8% 9.2% 9.1% 8.2% 10.2% 16.6% Tax equivalent IRR Tax equivalent IRR Tax equivalent IRR 20% tax band 40% tax band 50% tax band 9.0% 10.4% 10.4% 10.1% 10.0% 9.0% 11.0% 18% 10.4% 11.8% 11.9% 11.5% 11.4% 10.3% 12% 20% 11.3% 12.8% 12.9% 12.4% 12.2% 11.1% 14% 22% Important Notes * All figures above assume that the system is connected to a property for use of the power as this maximises financial return. * That returns on wind turbines are heavily affected by the quality of the site and the above figures should be seen as ‘optimal’. * Equipment costs are constantly changing and the above represents an average for the first six months of 2010. * RPI inflation is assumed to be 2%. The Personal Investment Guide to the Feed-In Tariffs 5 Risk .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Political risk Product risk The long-term security of the Feed-In Tariffs as government policy is protected within the Energy Act 2008 which received cross-party support in Parliament. However, one of the principle drivers behind the legislation was the legally-binding EU Renewable Energy Directive which has set the UK target for the percentage of energy generated from renewable sources at 15%. With only just over 3% of the UK’s energy generated from renewable sources at the start of the decade – only Malta has a worse performance – the UK has the toughest challenge of all European countries. The tariff lifetimes for each type of technology have been set to reflect minimum levels of predicted failure. For example, most solar PV panels will typically last over 30 years and so the tariffs last only 25 years. That is not to say that every part of a system will last the full tariff lifetime. In the case of the solar PV, an owner should budget for inverter failure at least once within the 25 year period. Similarly, some systems require more maintenance than others especially where moving parts are involved such as for wind or hydro turbines. Maintenance, extended warranty and insurance schemes exist to mitigate these risks. These targets are only the first step to overall 2050 ambition to reduce European carbon emissions by between 80% and 95%. Given that the Feed-In Tariffs is one of the key schemes designed to help meet these targets in the UK, any political threat would be wholly self-defeating. It should be noted that the only technologies to be included within the Feed-In Tariffs were those deemed sufficiently mature and able to offer predictable energy returns over the lifetime of the tariffs. Furthermore, to safeguard the prospective owner/ investor of systems up to 50kW in capacity, both the installer and equipment must be certified under the independent MCS (Microgeneration Certification Scheme) to be eligible. The installer and the technology are therefore deemed under regulation by a Government agency, to be competent. Whilst this does not provide absolute guarantees in such respects, a clear attempt has been made to address and minimise the risks. Liquidity risk Renewable energy systems are semi-permanent physical installations with little secondary trading value. It is imperative, therefore, that one understands the very illiquid nature of this as an investment. Once installed on the building, the owner is committing to the full tariff period of 20-25 years to realise the returns offered. However, the exceptions would be as follows: a. The owner of the system can sell the ownership of the system to another party along with the right to receive the Feed-In Tariffs income should they wish and should a willing buyer exist (quite possible once the market matures). The system would remain in its originally installed situation. b. The property (in or on which the system is installed) is sold with the system along with the right to receive the Feed-In Tariffs. Credit risk The Feed-In Tariffs scheme has been legislated by the UK Government and in doing so the Government has mandated the obligation to administer the scheme to both OFGEM and to the Licensed Energy Suppliers. The Feed-In Tariffs are funded by a Climate Change Levy which will be payable by all traditional electricity consumers. Effectively, therefore, there exists no known, material credit risk to the investor (as owner of the system). The Personal Investment Guide to the Feed-In Tariffs Performance risk The amount of income earned from the Feed-In Tariffs is entirely dependent on the amount of electricity generated by the renewable energy generating system. The variability is mostly driven by weather conditions. However, in all cases, the forecasted outputs of such systems [PV, Wind, Hydro] can be estimated to a surprisingly high level of certainty. Naturally, averages derived from actual long term weather data will not yield exact predictions but they will be very close. As such, the risk relating to system performance based on weather conditions is very low. For maximum return, the equipment must be running at optimal performance. Regular annual checks are therefore essential to ensure financial returns are maximised. The amount of work required will, of course, vary between technology types. Please note, however, that physical changes to the immediate or surrounding environment do pose a real risk. For example, a new building causing shading on a Solar PV array or a change in control (by the Environment Agency) of water flow in a river causing diminished performance of a hydro power plant. 6 Feed-In Tariffs as an Asset Class .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ‘Feed-In Tariffs as an Investment’ is a novel concept. However, savvy and professional investors consider asset allocation in a broad sense - in reality, not only are liquid capital market investments considered, but also offmarket illiquid investments are as well. For example, as part of a wider investment portfolio, an investor would consider their allocation and exposure to physical property when determining the asset allocation at the highest level. In the same way, an investor should factor ‘Feed-In Tariffs as an Investment’ in their asset allocation process. 1. Comparable Investments Whilst other asset classes, such as corporate bonds, might be a useful comparison to ‘FeedIn Tariffs as an Investment’, the most relevant comparisons in our opinion, in the context of risk characteristics (investment horizon; inflation protection; and cash flow profiles) are with Index Linked Gilts and Annuities. Annuities Annuities are generally pension income instruments with a life term. Once purchased for a lump sum, say £100,000, a simple, level annuity will pay a fixed periodic cash flow for the duration of the holder’s life. Credit risk is immaterial due to substantial pension regulation in the UK but significant interest rate risk exists. Annuity payment levels (know as annuity rates) are extremely sensitive to interest rates. The chart below shows approximate implied nominal and real (inflation adjusted) annuity yields offered by simple life annuities since January 2000. The following assumptions are used in the calculation of annuity rates: straight level life annuity for a male aged 65 years with a life expectancy of 20 years. Similar to Gilt yields, real annuity yields have trended lower over the past 11 years and, since January 2010, the implied real annuity yields have been negative. Annuities - Implied IRRs Annuities - Implied Yield 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% Government bonds 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Annuities - Real yields Jan 10 Jan 09 Jan 08 Jan 07 Jan 06 Jan 05 Jan 04 Jan 03 Jan 02 Jan 01 -1.0% Jan 00 Long-term Indexed Linked Gilts issued by the UK Government are a very good comparison to ‘Feed-In Tariffs as an Investment’ as the credit risk is entirely sovereign and because they also offer real returns (yield) – i.e. are inflation protected. The chart below shows the year-end 20 year Yields calculated from Index Linked Gilts. As you can see, the real yields have trended consistently lower since December 1997 and as at the end of UK2010, Gifts 20 Year Yielda real yield of 0.97%. May UK -Index Linked Real Gilts offered Annuities - Nominal yields Data source: Office for National Statistic, Bank of England, Multiple Annuity Providers UK Gifts - 20 Year Real Yield In contrast, since the FITs are designed to offer real yields of 5-10%, there is a clear and substantial excess return available for prospective FITs Generators. Further, as the base returns would be relatively stable over the tariff period, it is our view that the FITs offer the highest risk-adjusted expected returns available across all asset classes over the long term. The table below shows the expected real, nominal and taxable equivalent returns offered by FITs as an investment. 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 Uk Gilts - 20 Year Real Yield Data source: Bank of England Dec 09 Dec 08 Dec 07 Dec 06 Dec 05 Dec 04 Dec 03 Dec 02 Dec 01 Dec 00 Dec 99 Dec 98 Dec 97 0 FITs Expected Returns Real Return Nominal with inflation = 2% Taxable equivalent at 40% tax Taxable equivalent at 50% tax Range - Low 5.0% 6.8% 8.5% 9.4% Range - High 10.0% 11.9% 14.7% 15.9% Notes1. 5-10% is the base range of expected returns. In some situations, higher returns are achievable 2. These are expected returns as the FITs are new and actual data is not available 3. Taxable equivalent returns are relevant for primary-residential FITs Generators The Personal Investment Guide to the Feed-In Tariffs 7 Feed-In Tariffs as an Asset Class .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2. Diversification In the world of finance, diversification aims to reduce risk and/or increase expected returns of a portfolio of investments by mixing investments whose returns are not perfectly correlated. Correlation - in this context- is a statistical measure of how two securities move in relation to each other. When returns of two securities are perfectly positively correlated (i.e. they move perfectly in tandem and in the same direction), they have a correlation co-efficient of one. When returns of two securities are perfectly negatively correlated (i.e. they move perfectly in tandem and in opposite directions), they have a correlation co-efficient of minus one. When returns of two securities move completely independently of one another, they have a correlation co-efficient of zero. Zero correlation investments provide the maximum diversification benefit by improving the risk/return trade-off. The table below shows the approximate correlations between major asset classes over the period 1988-2007. It is also worth noting that during the recent Credit Crisis, correlations between major asset classes increased dramatically and, in doing so, the benefit of diversification was massively diminished. Understanding the factors which affect the returns from ‘Feed-In Tariffs’ will aid understanding in how and why adding this to an investment portfolio (so to speak) would yield near-maximum diversification benefit by substantially increasing expected return whilst, at the same time, substantially reducing risk of the investment portfolio . Furthermore, the correlation of FITs with other asset classes would remain stable, at or very close to zero, regardless of movements in the capital markets. In practice, it is very difficult to identify investment combinations where a true-zero correlation exists. Therefore, in reality, investors look for correlations as close to zero as possible when seeking maximum diversification. UK Equities International Equities UK Treasury Gilts Index-Linked Gilts 0.44 0.35 0.50 0.03 Near Zero* 0.08 0.21 -0.36 > 0* 0.84 0.15 > 0* Property Cash FITs UK Equities International Equities UK Treasury Gilts Index-Linked Gilts Property Cash FITs 0.87 0.29 0.41 0.55 0.16 Near Zero* 0.84 0.15 > 0* > 0* Data source: FTSE, Iboxx, Bank Of England * estimated The Personal Investment Guide to the Feed-In Tariffs 8 What you need to do and FAQs .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... What you need to do FAQs What happens if I sell my property? 1. Consider the size of investment you are prepared to make Different systems or combination of systems require different levels of investment. The lowest practicable investment would be around £12,000 but £multi-million investments are being made in either standalone systems such as solar parks, or on multiple property portfolios. The tariff income will pass to the new owner. Analysis is being carried out to determine what the positive impact on property prices will be, but this work will take some time to conclude as the Feed-In Tariffs are so recently introduced. Who makes the Feed-In Tariffs payments? Your energy supplier will make the payments with the money coming from a levy off everyone’s electricity bills. 2. Identify the required properties or site Are there grants available? In general, your own home will be the best place to start due to the tax exemption benefits. Beyond that, it will be a mixture of factors such as whether you are landlord, a business owner or the size of the investment you are considering that will dictate the type of property or site that would be most appropriate. 3. Seek expert advice Both of the above steps are best done by industry experts to ensure that the optimum financial returns are achieved. For most investments, especially for larger systems, ensure that any third party advisors are well versed not only in the renewable energy systems being considered but the specifics of the FeedIn Tariffs and Renewable Heat Incentive which are relatively complex. Be aware that for all systems sub-50kW in size, both the equipment and the installer must be MCS certified. Above that level, ROO-FIT registration applies. Ar Wouldn’t it be better to wait for the equipment to get cheaper? No, the Government has taken this into consideration and that is why degression has been introduced (see page 3). Can I claim the tariff income if I install a system in someone else’s property? Yes, the Feed-In Tariff rules allow for third parties to be assigned the tariff income. Whoever is resident in the property would then receive either the generated electricity for free at a price agreed with the system owner. Doessthe system have to provide power to a ra f gua arif tproperty? d? Wh ee o nt pa Please also bear in mind the fact that degression will reduce returns from installations made after April 2012 under the Feedhe In Tariffs. et All central Government grants have ceased. Some grants are available at a regional or local level but there are many restrictions about how these can be used. No, you can have a standalone system that purely provides power to the National Grid and therefore receives the minimum 3p/kWh additional export. ys a ,c t The system owner will not be able to claim any n a export tariff as grid connection is required for this to happen. en Additionally, the t a system owner will have to apply to any of m the tariff licensee energy supply companies (any of the I a big six for example) who ? will be obliged to administer the me tariff income payments. o h Wh e t if situation I mov regards financing? What isathe enefit? r fo t he at do I do Wh ll b What happens if the property is not connectedtito s the National Grid? nI if tar if fs? m y ho e us is lis The larger the scheme, the easier it is get financing. Consumer financing for smaller schemes is also beginning to emerge as financial packages. ted o rh as ot t her planning restric The Personal Investment Guide to the Feed-In Tariffs 9 Who we are .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... We are the UK’s leading experts on the Feed-In Tariffs and Renewable Heat Incentive. In this capacity, we select, design, install, manage and finance tariff-eligible renewable energy systems of all sizes and on any type of property. Our customers range from single system PV installations on domestic properties up to large £multi-million standalone systems. The Energy Selector For property-based investments, our online Energy Selector provides our customers with a thorough report on which systems are feasible, how much they will cost and what the financial benefit will be under the Feed-In Tariffs and Renewable Heat Incentive. There are two versions of the Energy Selector – residential for domestic properties and non-residential for commercial properties such as farms, industrial units, office blocks or hotels, as well as for public buildings such as schools, hospitals, churches and halls. The Personal Investment Guide to the Feed-In Tariffs Design and installation Regardless of the size of the installation, type of technology or location of the property, Ownergy will select, design and manage the installation. We ensure the eligibility and warranty of the system to both meet the property’s energy requirements and provide the maximum financial return. Management and maintenance Ownergy’s ongoing management and maintenances service maximises the efficiency of our customers’ renewable energy systems to ensure the highest levels of financial return. This includes the negotiation of higher export tariff rates through the aggregation of our customer’s surplus energy. Project delivery For large standalone systems or multi-property investments, we are able to provide a complete end-to-end service from feasibility and design, to installation and ongoing system management and maintenance. 10 Appendix - Tariff Tables .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Energy source Scale Generation tariff (pence/kWh) Duration (years) Anaerobic Digestion Anaerobic Digestion Anaerobic Digestion Hydro Hydro Hydro Micro-CHP Solar PV Solar PV Solar PV Solar PV Solar PV Solar PV Wind Wind Wind Wind Wind Wind ≤500kW >500kW ≤15 kW >15 - 100kW >100kW - 2MW >2kW - 5MW <2 kW ≤4 kW new ≤4 kW retrofit >4-10kW >10 - 100kW >100kW - 5MW Standalone ≤1.5kW >1.5 - 15kW >15 - 100kW >100 - 500kW >500kW - 1.5MW >1.5MW - 5MW 11.5 9.0 19.9 17.8 11.0 4.5 10.0 36.1 41.3 36.1 31.4 29.3 29.3 34.5 26.7 24.1 18.8 9.4 4.5 20 20 20 20 20 20 10 25 25 25 25 25 25 20 20 20 20 20 20 The Personal Investment Guide to the Feed-In Tariffs 11 Get started, complete our Energy Selector and find out how your property could benefit from the Feed-In Tariffs and Renewable Heat Incentive. Designed by 2Cs.com Go to www.ownergy.co.uk and click on Energy Selector.
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