With Steve LaNore, CBM
April 28, 2017
SPECIAL REPORT-LOOKING BACK: World Tornado Record, April 27, 2011
This year, the tornado count continues well above average YTD for 2017 (through April 27) at 489, and
while overall damage has not been extreme, some of that is just dumb luck.
It was six years ago this same week, on April 27, 2011 that numerous monster tornadoes killed over 300
people and did over $10 billion in damage in ONE day, and setting the world record for tornadoes in a
single 24-hour period at 200! Here’s an excerpt from some of the weather carnage wrought by the skies
that day:
It was a weather scenario forecasters recognized as “high-risk,” and in fact there were three days lead
time that this was going to be a major outbreak in all respects, a heads-up blessing of 21st century
science. Smaller tornado outbreaks began on April 25th over Texas, by the 27th all the ingredients had
lined up for a world-record day of tragic tornadoes: an epic 200 of them would be produced in that one
day.
The atmospheric set-up followed the pattern of high wind shear, strong upper jet, rich Gulf moisture tap
and a surface front seen in previous historic outbreaks (read more about these in “Twister Tales”,
available on Amazon), but it was concentrated over a much smaller area than the 1974 Super Outbreak,
making for a literal barrage of twisters through northern Mississippi and central/northern Alabama.
The wind shear was downright ferocious with winds transitioning from 20 mph at the surface to 70 mph
at 3,000 feet, rare at that level. The shear created a very favorable environment for large, long-lasting
twisters.
The first tornado in nature’s afternoon salvo was a vicious EF-5 that produced extreme devastation on
the north side of Philadelphia, Mississippi around 2:30 p.m. Homes were scraped clean to their
foundations, vehicles were thrown, and the ground itself was scoured out to a depth of two feet. The
storm continued for 29 miles while more supercell thunderstorms began to rapidly form within a 150mile wide swath of eastern Mississippi and northern Alabama.
A half-hour later, a devastating multiple-vortex tornado struck the city of Cullman, Alabama (south of
Huntsville) around 3:00 p.m. The EF-4 wiped out nearly 900 homes and 100 businesses and even
destroyed the NOAA Weather Radio transmitter located there. It only got worse as the afternoon wore
on.
This is one of dozens of large tornadoes that raked Alabama and neighboring states on April 27, 2011.
From Charles Whisenant of the Arab, Alabama Tribune.
Good Grief! More Metroplex Hailstorms
It seems that the Dallas area just can’t get a break when it comes to hail. Last year, three massive
hailstorms racked up some $1.5 billion in damages in just a month; several hail events this spring have
been less intense but still running into the hundreds of millions. After a March 26th hailstorm led to
thousands of claims (reported on last month), two more rounds of large, damaging hail tracked across
the northern half of the Metroplex, striking the boom-town of Frisco as well as Denton, McKinney, and
Plano. The hail affected over a half million people on April 10, and again on the 21st:
Golfball hail piled up five inches deep at this west Plano home on April 21st / Pierre Panayi
Not as bad as the March 26th storm, but bad enough / hail to baseball size (2.75”) / Fort Worth NWS
Hail to baseball size in Prosper TX, (near Frisco) on April 21st / Kathie Kennemer
April 2017: A “Burst” of Tornadoes to Start the Month, but Losses not
Extreme
There were over 110 tornado reports across the U.S. during the first five days of April as two potent
weather systems spun up lots of twisters from Texas to Missouri and eastward to South Carolina.
Two people died near Alexandria, Louisiana on April 2, the only known tornado fatalities during the
entire month; the victims died in a smashed mobile home. The killer funnel was caught by local news
crews; the city itself was lucky to escape major damage as it was quite a large EF1 tornado with 100-mph
winds:
Tornado near Alexandria, LA on April 2 / KLFY-TV
But, it doesn’t take a tornado to make a mobile home a death-trap. One person died inside this South
Carolina trailer after straight-line winds flipped it in Union County, SC on April 3:
Union County. S.C. Sheriff’s Department
Overall, April has seen near-average tornado activity with a bit fewer than 200 twisters for the month,
and just two fatalities. When we look at the year-to-date totals, however, we are still running way ahead
of the norm; a typical year sees about 300 tornadoes through the end of April; 2017 YTD has racked up
just short of 500, with the busiest months, May and June, still to come.
Outlook for the Rest of the Season
An unusually active jet stream pattern and record warm Gulf sea temperatures have conspired to make
tornado-friendly conditions this year, and this is unlikely to change in May. Look for an active tornado
month with the potential for some fierce outbreaks, especially later in the month. Giant hailstorms are
also in the cards as we’ve seen in Texas this year, since tornadic conditions and intense hail cores often
run together. It should be a busy time for adjusters!
First Stab at Hurricane Season…Near Normal Outlook
Computer modeling has been showing a weak El Nino developing by mid to late summer, and if that
happens we can expect a near-average season. NOAA released their preliminary outlook in late April
with a forecast of 12 named storms, dead on the average.
The “official” outlook from the National Hurricane Center/NOAA calls for:
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•
•
12 named storms
Six hurricanes
Two “Major” hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or more, (Category 3 or higher)
Florida got lucky when Category 3 Hurricane “Matthew” remained just offshore last October.
If El Nino doesn’t show up, the storm count will probably be higher. Of course, luck always plays a role as
with last year’s Hurricane “Matthew” in October. Had the eye of the storm jogged just 40 miles farther
west, Florida would have sustained many billions in damage instead of a few hundred million. That just
good fortune and not a forecastable event!
What about Droughts?
Heavy-duty rainfall over the winter leaves California and much of the Pacific Northwest in pretty good
shape. The fire outlook is for far fewer large fires than we’ve seen the past several years. Here’s the
most recent Drought Monitor report for the west:
Meanwhile….things just keep getting worse in the southeastern U.S. and more fires are likely unless we
can get some soaking rainfall before the summer heat shows up.
Adjuster Hot-Spots
Given these outlooks and the normal weather patterns as we move into late spring, we can expect the
busy places to be:
>>> Typical tornado hot-spots within “tornado alley” as the pattern shifts westward in May: Texas
northward to Nebraska, eastward into Arkansas.
>>> Fire potential, especially in Florida and the Appalachians, where it’s very dry
>>> Early-season hurricanes are likely to be stronger than normal due to very warm Gulf waters. MayJune tropical systems tend to favor the Gulf. Hopefully that won’t be an issue until June…but you just
never know.
Take Care,
Steve LaNore, CBM
Author, “Twister Tales, Unraveling Tornado Myths”, available on Amazon