BLACK MAYORS/WHITE MAYORS EXPLAINING THEIR APPROVAL SUSAN E. HOWELL HUEY L. PERRY Abstract Performance models have been the norm in research on national and state executives, but oddly this model has rarely been extended to the next level of executive office, mayors. The increasing number of African American mayors suggests that race may complicate the performance model of approval at the local level. This research tests a performance model of mayoral approval that takes racial factors into account. The model is tested in two white cities with white mayors and two black cities with black mayors. Performance is measured by citizen evaluations of a variety of urban conditions, some of which citizens can observe firsthand. Findings indicate that (1) performance matters in evaluating black and white mayors, and its influence does not seem to be related to the race of the mayor; (2) performance has more explanatory power over mayoral approval than race, a pattern that holds for both black and white mayors; (3) race has more impact on the approval of black mayors than on white mayors; and (4) blacks in black cities have lower evaluations of local government performance in their cities than blacks in white cities. We conclude that the performance model is generalizable to the local level, even with the complications of race. The Performance Model Most of the existing literature on executive approval is based on a performance model, which emphasizes citizen evaluations of conditions in the country or SUSAN E. HOWELL is professor of political science at the University of New Orleans. HUEY L. PERRY is professor and Chancellor’s Fellow in the Department of Political Science at Southern University—Baton Rouge. We are grateful to the National Science Foundation for funding this project, and to Frank P. Scioli Jr. and Marianne C. Stewart for their counsel in preparing the proposal. We would also like to thank Gary King, Sara Benesh, and Matthew Vile for methodological advice along the way, and Christine Day, Phillip J. Ardoin, and anonymous reviewers for comments on an earlier draft. This project could not have been completed without the efforts of the graduate assistants with the University of New Orleans Survey Research Center, Matthew Vile, Heidi Unter, Manabu Saeki, and Monica Farris. Address correspondence to Susan E. Howell; e-mail: [email protected]. Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 68 No. 1 Pp. 32–56, © American Association for Public Opinion Research 2004; all rights reserved. DOI:10.1093 / poq / nfh003 Explaining Mayoral Approval 33 state. The concept, “performance,” is quite broad, and there is no single performance model. However, there are common themes among studies of executive approval. Performance can be conceived of as the quality of social, economic, and international outcomes experienced by the public (Ostrom and Simon 1985). The emphasis in this model is on outcomes. It is outcomes and perceptions of those outcomes—not policy proposals or announcements—that are crucial influences on executive approval (Brody 1991). Performance can theoretically cover an infinite number of subjects, but existing research on presidential approval has emphasized economic outcomes and foreign policy. There is ample evidence that economic and foreign policy outcomes directly affect presidential popularity (Edwards, Mitchell, and Welch 1995; Hetherington and Nelson 2003; Hibbs 1982; Kernell 1978; MacKuen 1983; MacKuen, Erikson, and Stimson 1989; Nadeau et al. 1999; Ostrom and Simon 1985). At the state level, where foreign policy is not applicable, evidence from single state studies (Howell and Vanderleuuw 1990) and from national data (Niemi, Stanley, and Vogel 1995) indicates that economic conditions impact gubernatorial popularity and gubernatorial elections in a fashion similar to that of the presidency. Beyond economic performance, the research on retrospective voting indicates that evaluations of past performance in areas of public policy are generally quite important predictors of voting for an incumbent executive (Fiorina 1981; Miller and Wattenberg 1985). While this research has focused on voting as a dependent variable, it is easy to see the applicability to approval of incumbents. The key theoretical question in our research is whether the performance model of executive approval applies to the local level. Oddly, this model has rarely been extended to the next level of executive office, mayors (for an exception see Howell and McLean 2001). Consistent with the research on national and state executive approval, a city’s economy can be one basis for judging mayoral performance. However, there are other sentiments about conditions in the city that could also serve as evaluations of performance. Citizens can evaluate cities in terms of control of crime, conditions of streets, housing, parks, public transportation, and schools. In addition, these aspects of urban life can be observed up close in the course of daily life, in contrast to conditions in the state or the nation. Thus, it is reasonable to expect that the performance model of approval can apply to mayors as well as to governors and presidents. Race as a Confounding Factor There is a major complication to applying the performance model to the local level. Because of the increasing number of African American mayors and majority-minority cities, race may be a confounding factor in the operation of the performance model in racially diverse settings with histories of racial conflict. If the performance model were applied to the local level without 34 Howell and Perry considering race and racial factors, it might well suffer from omitted variable bias. That is, the model would provide an incomplete explanation, and the estimates of the impact of performance on mayoral approval could be overestimated or underestimated. There are four ways in which race could affect the performance model in racially diverse settings, which we define as settings where the minority race comprises at least 20 percent of the adult population, and where there is a history of racial conflict. First, racial categorization as a representation of group interests could directly affect mayoral approval. The literature provides generous evidence of race-based voting in biracial mayoral contests (Adler 2001; Browning and Marshall 1986; Browning, Marshall, and Tabb 1984; Engstrom and Kirkland 1995; Huckfeldt and Kohfeld 1989; Kleppner 1985; Vanderleeuw 1990). Given the strong effects demonstrated in these studies, there is certainly reason to expect that the racial effects in the election will extend to approval of whomever is elected. The expectation is that race affects mayoral approval over and above the effect of performance. Second, race may be antecedent to the performance model and affect citizens’ perceptions of conditions in the locality. If this is so, omission of race from the performance model provides an incomplete description of how the model works. Since it is well established that, due to different life experiences, group interests, and socialization, blacks and whites have different perceptions across a variety of domains (Kinder and Sanders 1996), they may also have differing evaluations of local government services, crime, employment prospects, and other conditions. Two conditions in particular are likely areas for racial polarization: perceptions of the local economy and evaluations of the local police. The economic disparity between blacks and whites in most areas implies that blacks would have lower evaluations of the economy than whites. Also, the greater distrust of police among blacks has been well researched (Campbell and Schuman 1968; Decker 1981; Perry 2000; Smith, Graham, and Adams 1991; U.S. Department of Justice 2000). The third way in which race affects the performance model is through the influence of racial attitudes on both the evaluations of performance and on mayoral approval. White citizens’ evaluations of a black or white mayor in a racially diverse setting may be partly determined by their racial attitudes. That is, whites with higher levels of racism will be more negative toward black mayors and toward conditions in majority black cities. In majority white settings, whites with higher levels of racism will be more positive toward white mayors and toward conditions in majority white cities. White racial attitudes have been shown to be predictive of voting behavior in mayoral elections involving Tom Bradley in Los Angeles (Kinder and Sears 1981; McConahay and Hough 1976; Sears and Kinder 1971). Also, recent research on white racial attitudes has emphasized the role of “group conflict”—white resentment of blacks due to their being competitors for privileges and resources (Bobo 1998, 2000; Bobo and Hutchings 1996). The notion of competition for Explaining Mayoral Approval 35 resources is quite relevant in an urban setting where racial groups “compete” for tangible resources. Blacks’ racial attitudes could also affect the performance model in a similar fashion. The most crucial black racial attitude is some form of black consciousness (Dawson 1994; Gurin, Hatchett, and Jackson 1989; Shingles 1981; Verba and Nie 1972). Our expectation is that blacks with higher levels of black consciousness are more approving of the black mayor and more positive about conditions in a majority black city, while in a majority white city blacks with higher levels of black consciousness are less approving of the white mayor and more negative about conditions in the white city. The fourth and final way in which race may confound the performance model is through the racial context, that is, the racial composition of the local setting. Racial context has been found to affect racism, racial policy attitudes, and party identification among whites (Giles and Hertz 1994; Glaser 1994; Taylor 1998, 2000; but for contrary evidence see Carsey 1995; Voss 1996). Racial context also affects political trust and participation among blacks (Bobo and Gilliam 1990; Howell and Fagan 1988). In this research, racial context is hypothesized to affect the model primarily through interactions with other variables. A majority black context is hypothesized to negatively affect evaluations of conditions in the city, but the effect will be greater among white citizens than among black citizens. Majority black contexts are often plagued by problems such as dwindling jobs, poor schools, crime, and deteriorating housing (Adler 2001; Barnes 1994; Kraus and Swanstrom 2001; Nelson 1990; Preston 1990). We hypothesize that these conditions will be met with a more negative response among whites because of their need to adopt beliefs and attitudes that support their dominant position in society (Sidanius et al. 2000). Blaming the black majority, which is also the “outgroup,” gives justification for negative perceptions of conditions in the majority-minority city. Racial context can also interact with race to impact mayoral approval. Because a majority black setting is the exceptional situation for most Americans, we expect racial polarization in mayoral approval to be greater in those settings. African American executives bring greater attention to racial matters simply because they are exceptions to the “norm” of white executives. In addition to addressing the theoretical question of application of the performance model to the local level, there are implications for governance and legitimacy. Some cities have had black mayors for more than twenty years, which should have reduced their novelty. If these mayors are not evaluated in terms of performance, it is a pessimistic conclusion for urban race relations, as well as a complication for governance by black mayors who often have to negotiate with a white business elite who controls a disproportionate amount of the wealth (Stone 1989). On the other hand, if performance is the yardstick for evaluating both black and white mayors, it indicates that urban residents are becoming less sensitive to race in evaluating urban officials (see Moesher and Silver 1994 and Sonenshein 1989 for evidence of this trend). As prescribed 36 Howell and Perry by democratic theory, the mayor gains or loses legitimacy biracially based on citizens’ evaluation of performance. The performance model of mayoral approval and the effects hypothesized for racial factors are summarized in the following eight hypotheses. All apply specifically to racially diverse cities with histories of racial conflict. H1: Blacks are more negative than whites on evaluations of performance, particularly evaluations of the local economy and the local police. H2: In a majority black context, white racism is negatively related to evaluations of performance. In majority white contexts, white racism is positively related to evaluations of performance. H3: In a majority black context, black consciousness is positively related to evaluations of performance. In majority white contexts, black consciousness is negatively related to evaluations of performance. H4: A black majority context negatively affects evaluations of performance, but the effect is greater among whites than among blacks. H5: Performance is positively related to approval of both black and white mayors. H6: Race affects mayoral approval above and beyond the effects of performance. This effect is expected to be greater for black mayors. H7: Conservative white racial attitudes are positively related to approval of white mayors and negatively related to approval of black mayors. H8: Black consciousness is positively related to approval of black mayors and negatively related to approval of white mayors. Data and Methodology The data for this research are from surveys of black and non-black (hereinafter called “white” for simplicity)1 registered voters in four cities, Chicago, New Orleans, Detroit, and Charlotte, NC. The following criteria were used to select the cities: 1. Two of the cities have black majorities and black mayors, and the other two cities have white majorities and white mayors, creating differentiation on majority race in the city and race of the mayor. A majority is defined as over 50 percent of the voting age population. 1. Self-identified whites dominate the non-black registered voter samples from each city: New Orleans—95 percent, Detroit—83 percent, Charlotte—91 percent, Chicago—80 percent. To test whether the inclusion of Hispanics altered the results, we estimated the Chicago and Detroit models in table 6 including only self-identified whites and blacks. The results were amazingly similar, with nearly identical adjusted R2’s, standard errors of the estimate, and insignificant differences between all regression coefficients. Details on this analysis are available from the authors. Therefore, including Hispanics does not reduce racial polarization or change the impact of the performance dimensions on mayoral approval. This may be because we screened for registered voters, therefore obtaining the more educated and assimilated Hispanics. Explaining Mayoral Approval 37 2. Two cities were chosen from the South and two from the non-South in order to differentiate on region. 3. Those residents not in the majority race had to comprise at least 20 percent of the city’s population over age 18, and the city had to have a history of black/white racial tension. 4. All four mayors had been in office at least three years at the beginning of data collection. This condition was necessary to allow the mayor’s performance to affect his approval rating. A newly elected mayor cannot expect to be evaluated on performance. 5. The two black mayors could not be the first black mayors in their city—in order to reduce the novelty factor. With four cities the question of generalizability inevitably arises. We make no claim that these cities represent some larger population. We are, however, moving beyond the typical single city approach used in local urban research by purposely varying the majority race of the city and the race of the mayor. This permits an initial test of the performance model at the local level while taking into account the confounding effects of race.2 Use of only four cities requires that we set some standards for confirming a hypothesis. We only draw inferences when the pattern exists either in three of the four cities, in both black cities but neither white city, or in both white cities but neither black city. Anything less would mean that we would be drawing a conclusion based on only one city. Within each city a nearly equal number of blacks and whites were interviewed. Thus, instead of a cross-sectional representation of each city, we have maximized variation on the key variable of race (King, Keohane, and Verba 1994).3 Cross-sectional random digit dialing samples of each city’s blacks and whites were utilized with a screen for registered voters. In order to reach an equal number of minority race respondents after exhausting the cross-sectional sample, areas of 40 percent or more minority race concentration were used to obtain the needed number. Only registered voters within the city limits were 2. There are always questions when certain locations are selected. One alternative considered was to use more cities and fewer respondents from each city. The problem was the shortage of black mayors who were not the first black mayor or who had been in office three years. There were plenty of white mayor locations but far fewer black mayor locations meeting the criteria, so we settled on basically a four case study design. We also avoided the West so as not to confound the analysis with large low-income Hispanic populations. This article concentrates on black/white conflict and leaves a Latino study to future research. The percentage of the population over age 18 that is black in these cities in the 2000 census is as follows: Detroit—79.6 percent, New Orleans—61.8 percent, Charlotte—29.9 percent, and Chicago—33.8 percent (www.census.gov). This study examined only registered voters living in the city limits whose approval of the mayor is politically influential. 3. As a result, we have nearly an equal number of blacks living with a white mayor in a white city as blacks living with a black mayor in a black city. It is not the location, Chicago or Detroit, that matters conceptually. It is the race of the mayor and the racial composition of the city that are of concern to this study. Thus, the samples were designed to equally represent cells of a 2 × 2 table of respondent’s race and race of the mayor and city. The samples are not designed to be representative cross sections of each city, only representative samples of blacks and of whites within each city. 38 Howell and Perry included because they can potentially vote for the mayor. More detail on the sampling procedure is provided in the appendix. The final number of respondents by race and by city is presented in table 1. The dependent variable, mayoral approval, is a simple question about how the mayor is “handling his job,” with five response categories ranging from “strongly disapprove” to “strongly approve”, and with “don’t know” as a middle category. This indicator is similar to those used at the national and state levels. The indicators of performance are perceptions of various aspects of urban life, such as evaluations of police protection, traffic control, public transportation, streets, services for the poor, parks, control of water pollution, and other municipal services described in the appendix. Respondents were also asked for their general evaluations of conditions in the city, perceptions of crime and personal safety, the city’s economic outlook, and public schools, totaling 27 individual performance items. Thus, we take a more comprehensive approach to performance evaluations than the national studies, which usually rely on one or two performance areas (Edwards, Mitchell, and Welch 1995; Nadeau et al 1999).4 The large number of performance indicators was utilized because there are many areas in which city residents can reasonably evaluate local performance, in contrast to evaluations of national and state conditions where information and experience are less easy to come by. Furthermore, other than economics, we did not have preconceived notions as to which aspects of performance were most important. To facilitate analysis, we reduced 25 of the indicators to 6 dimensions— General evaluations, evaluations of Police, economic outlook or Economy, city Services, perceptions of Safety, and Transportation—informed by an exploratory principal axis factoring procedure. The indicators comprising each factor were combined into additive indices (not factor scores) and coded to range from 0 = negative to 1 = positive.5 Two indicators, perceptions of increasing/decreasing Crime and evaluations of the Schools, appeared to be both substantively and empirically distinct, so they are used as single indicators, scored from 0 to 1, yielding a total of 8 dimensions of performance. 4. Most of these items can be considered indicators of the quality of life in the city. However, it should be noted that some items are only relevant to the quality of life of city residents who use the service. For example, low-income people are most affected by the quality of “services for the poor” and the quality of “public transportation.” 5. Principal axis factoring with varimax rotation was used to obtain a first look at how the indicators fell into dimensions. There were clear commonalities across cities, but, of course, not every indicator had its largest loading on the same dimension in every city. We wanted the content of the performance measures to be identical across the four cities in order to make meaningful comparisons. Therefore, we did not use factor scores, the content of which differed from city to city. Both the factor analyses and the content of the items were used to select items for additive scales. Details on the factor analyses are available from the authors. The reliability of the additive scales, as measured by Cronbach’s alpha, are as follows for New Orleans, Detroit, Charlotte, and Chicago, respectively: Services, .81, .79, .76, .85; Police, .82, .82, .81, .82; Safety, .69, .71, .66, .69; Economy, .68, .72, .70, .74; Transportation, .53, .57, .49, .62; General, .51, .63, .57, .63. Explaining Mayoral Approval 39 Whites’ racial attitudes are represented by the concepts of symbolic racism and group conflict. Symbolic racism (Sears 1988; Sears et al. 1997) is measured by four items selected due to their inclusion in the 1986 through 1994 American National Election Studies. Group conflict is measured by four items developed by Bobo and Hutchings (1996) measuring whites’ views of racial competition for resources.6 Our measures of black consciousness are Dawson’s indicator of “linked fate” (Dawson 1994, p. 77) and four items measuring black solidarity, all of which have been utilized in one or more of the National Black Election Studies. Racial Polarization in Mayoral Approval Mayoral approval is racially polarized in all four cities, but not always in the expected direction (table 1). In three of the cities the predictable pattern exists, with whites more likely to approve of the white mayor and blacks more likely to approve of the black mayor (correlations of −.200 in Chicago, −.244 in Charlotte, and .292 in New Orleans). However, in Detroit, former mayor Dennis Archer, an African American, was more popular among whites than among blacks (r = −.219), an anomaly we will return to shortly. In all cities the difference between whites and blacks is strongest in the categories of “strongly approve” and “strongly disapprove,” indicating that intensity of support, as well as direction, is affected by race. The large standardized residuals in the most intense cells also confirm the racial polarization in intensity. Larger standardized residuals in a cell indicate a greater difference between the observed and expected values for that cell. This is an indication that performance models of mayoral approval in these settings should include race as an explanatory factor. The “reverse” racial polarization in Detroit presents an interesting, and theoretically important, exception to the “rule” that citizens are more likely to approve of same-race mayors than are citizens of the other race. While Archer was approved of by a majority of both whites and blacks, his approval rating was higher among whites. This case is theoretically important because it demonstrates that racial polarization can exist even in the reverse direction due to the persistence of different racial agendas. Mayor Archer disappointed black voters on several fronts. He did not take a strong stand against welfare reform, which 6. To test whether or not these white racial attitude items constitute two dimensions, a principal components analysis was conducted. The symbolic racism and group conflict items separate into two factors. When the rotation is oblique, the correlation between the two underlying factors is only .09. Furthermore, the reliability of a single scale with symbolic racism and group conflict together is only .43, as measured by Cronbach’s alpha, while the two separate scales have alphas of .55 (symbolic racism) and .80 (group conflict). The reliability of the symbolic racism scale in this sample of whites in four cities is somewhat lower than in national samples. Sears et al (1997, p. 26) report .78 (1986 National Election Studies, eight items), .76 (1992 National Election Studies, six items), and .65 (1994 GSS, four items). Table 1. New Orleans (Black City) Mayor Approval by Race Strongly Disapprove Disapprove Don’t Know Approve Strongly Approve Pearson’s r = .292*** Detroit (Black City) Strongly Disapprove Disapprove Don’t Know Approve Strongly Approve Pearson’s r = −.219*** Charlotte (White City) Strongly Disapprove Disapprove Don’t Know Approve Strongly Approve Pearson’s r = −.244*** Chicago (White City) Strongly Disapprove Disapprove Don’t Know Approve Strongly Approve Pearson’s r = −.200*** NOTE.—Standardized residuals in parentheses. *** p < .001. 40 White Black 23% (3.1) 12 (1.2) 7 (.3) 34 (1.1) 24 (−3.7) N = 251 8% (−3.1) 7 (−1.2) 6 (−.3) 26 (−1.1) 53 (3.7) N = 253 12% (−2.0) 6 (−2.1) 5 (−.3) 34 (.2) 43 (2.6) N = 250 23% (1.9) 14 (1.9) 6 (.3) 32 (−.2) 25 (−2.4) N = 282 3% (−2.2) 3 (−1.6) 7 (−1.9) 37 (.3) 50 (2.2) N = 273 11% (2.3) 7 (1.7) 15 (2.0) 35 (−.3) 32 (−2.3) N = 255 6% (−1.9) 6 (−1.5) 3 (−.7) 29 (−.4) 56 (2.1) N = 250 13% (1.9) 12 (1.5) 5 (.7) 32 (.4) 38 (−2.0) N = 262 Explaining Mayoral Approval 41 was supported by Michigan’s Republican governor, and, according to some observers, the economic revitalization of the city benefited whites much more than blacks (Farley, Danziger, and Holzer 2000). Furthermore, Archer was simply was not Coleman Young, the charismatic leader of the civil rights movement in Detroit, who was the first African American mayor in that city and served for twenty years. Mayor Archer’s style was more technocratic and legalistic. The reverse racial polarization in Detroit confirms other analyses suggesting that personal style has implications for the mayor’s relationships with white and black constituents (Perry 2000, 1990). Thus, for both instrumental and symbolic reasons, Mayor Archer was more popular among whites than blacks. How Racial Factors Influence Perceptions of Performance RACE Table 2 summarizes ordinary least squares models for each city with the performance dimensions as dependent variables, and race and a series of common demographic controls as explanatory variables. The first conclusion one can draw is that the effects of race on perceptions of performance depend on whether one is considering a majority white city or a majority black city. As hypothesis 1 predicted, blacks are more negative than whites on the economy and the police. They are also more negative about their safety. However, all three of these effects of being black exist only in the majority white cities. For example, in Charlotte, being black is associated with being 9 percent lower on the police scale, 7 percent lower on the economy scale, and 4 percent lower on the safety scale. Chicago blacks are 13 percent lower on the police scale, 7 percent lower on the economy scale, and 5 percent lower on the safety scale. None of these effects are large in magnitude, but they exist independent of socioeconomic status and other demographics. Another effect of race is the greater negative evaluation of schools by whites in both of the majority black cities. Again, the magnitude of the effect is small. While not originally hypothesized, this may be due to the fact that the public schools in these cities are overwhelmingly black, underfunded, abandoned by the white middle class, and socially constructed as largely inferior by the local media (Schneider and Ingram 1993). Race has no relationship to evaluations of the schools in the majority white cities. Because the impact of race differs from white cities to black cities, the analysis now shifts to the racial context. In table 3 the four cities are pooled and the contextual variable, Race × BlackCity, is added in order to test the statistical significance of the effects of race from white cities to black cities.7 The 7. This is essentially the same analysis technique used by Bobo and Gilliam (1990) when they entered the contextual variable, Empowerment, to their regression models of individual level behavior. 42 — — — — — — .12*** — Services Police Safety Economy Transportation General Evaluations Schools Crime — .05 .05 — — — .11 .06 R2 — — .09*** — −.05** — .05* — Race (Black) Detroit (Black City) — .03 .09 .05 .02 — .02 .04 R2 — −.09*** −.04* −.07*** — — — — Race (Black) Charlotte (White City) — .14 .16 .19 — — .04 .05 R2 R2 .10 .12 .08 .17 .02 .07 — .07 Race (Black) −.09*** −.13*** −.05* −.07*** −.06** −.16*** — −.13*** Chicago (White City) NOTE.—Cell entries are unstandardized regression coefficients for the Race variable and the adjusted R2’s for the models. Cells without entries indicate an insignificant model based on the F statistic, or an insignificant relationship between Race and the dependent variable. Race is coded as a dichotomous variable; 0 = nonblack, 1 = black. All models include controls for gender, income, education, age, and race of interviewer, but coefficients are not presented for the sake of brevity. Full equations are presented in Supplementary Material Online. * p < .05. ** p < .01. *** p < .001 Race (Black) New Orleans (Black City) Race and Dimensions of Performance Dependent Variable Table 2. Explaining Mayoral Approval Table 3. 43 Interactions between Race and Racial Context Dependent Variable Race Black City Race × BlackCity R2 Services Police Safety Economy Transportation General Evaluations Schools Crime −.06*** −.11*** −.05** −.08*** — — — −.07** −.16*** −.13*** −.11*** −.19*** −.09*** — −.20*** .07** .06*** .09*** .09*** .08*** — — .07** .08* .19 .12 .10 .19 .06 — .13 .06 NOTE.—Cell entries are unstandardized regression coefficients and the adjusted R2’s for the models. Cells without entries indicate an insignificant model based on the F statistic, or an insignificant coefficient. Race is coded as a dichotomous variable; 0 = nonblack, 1 = black. All models include controls for gender, income, education, age, and race of interviewer, but coefficients are not presented for the sake of brevity. Full equations are presented in Supplementary Material Online. * p < .05. ** p < .01. *** p < .001. coefficients associated with the variable, Race, represent the impact of being black in the white cities, and the coefficients associated with the interaction term, Race × BlackCity, represent how a black racial context affects those Race coefficients. Furthermore, in keeping with our rules for drawing conclusions, we are only interested in the interaction coefficients associated with Police, Safety, Economy, and Schools, where the patterns across cities warrant inferences and are not being driven by one city.8 The interactions of interest, predicting evaluations of Police, Safety, Economy, and Schools, are all significant, and the substantive interpretation is that, with the exception of Schools, the negative effect of being black in the white cities (the Race coefficient) is virtually eliminated in the black cities (the Race coefficient plus the Race × BlackCity coefficient). For example, the impact of being black on Police evaluations in the white cities is −.11, but in the black cities it is −.02 (−.11 + .09). In the case of Schools, the effect of being black in the white cities is insignificant, but in the black cities, the effect of being black on evaluations of public schools is positive. Thus, it seems that race affects the performance model by having a modest influence on some of the performance evaluations themselves, and this influence depends on racial context. The final conclusion from tables 2 and 3 is the low explanatory power of most of the models, suggesting that citizens’ evaluations of these performance factors are a result of their observations and experiences with actual services 8. For example, the interaction coefficients associated with Services (−.06) and Crime (−.07) are being driven solely by Chicago, the only city where being black means lower evaluations of Services and Crime. Therefore, we will not draw conclusions about any of the pooled coefficients associated with Services or Crime. 44 Howell and Perry and conditions, information obtained from the media, friends, and family, or other unknown factors. RACIAL ATTITUDES Whites’ and blacks’ racial attitudes are also expected to affect performance evaluations differently in white versus black contexts (hypotheses 2 and 3). With the exception of evaluations of Police, this expectation is not borne out. In an analysis not shown, the four city models are first estimated separately. Whites’ racial attitudes have effects on some performance dimensions in addition to Police, but the effects are so sporadic that we cannot draw a conclusion about racial context. Furthermore, the effects of black racial attitudes, in addition to being unrelated to the racial composition of the city, are extremely small. Police evaluations are a special case where white racial attitudes are clearly influential (again, data not shown here). In the two black cities, whites who perceive higher levels of Group Conflict have more negative opinions about the police than whites with lower levels of Group Conflict. In the white cities, the effects of conservative white racial attitudes on police evaluations are either insignificant or positive. Based on these four cities, we suggest that living in a majority black city might incline whites to view the police, who are also majority black, partially through the lens of their racial attitudes. Interesting results emerge when racial context is added to both black and white models of all performance measures (tables 4 and 5). The first conclusion is that living in one of the black contexts has a negative effect on most of the eight performance dimensions among both blacks and whites, regardless of racial attitudes. With the exception of Crime, all of the coefficients associated with Black City are negative or insignificant. Table 5 shows the negative impact that living in the black cities has on white residents’ evaluations of conditions in their city. In these black cities, whites are 16 percent of the scale lower in their evaluations of municipal services than they are in the white cities, 12 percent lower in their evaluations of the police, 10 percent lower in perceptions of safety, and so on.9 Furthermore, in the four performance areas singled out from table 2, Police, Safety, Economy, and Schools, the negative impact of living in the black cities is greater for whites than for blacks, partially confirming hypothesis 4.10 9. While it appears in table 5 that whites with conservative racial attitudes have more negative evaluations of most of the performance measures, these pooled coefficients are being driven by relationships in one city or in one white and one black city. In accordance with the standards we set earlier for drawing conclusions, this is not sufficient to draw a general conclusion. 10. The statistical significance of these racial differences lies back in table 3. The interaction term, Race*BlackCity, in table 3 is simply another way of interpreting the effects of Black City on the performance evaluations of blacks versus whites in tables 4 and 5. Six coefficients from table 3 are statistically significant, but only four, Police, Safety, Economy, and Schools, are supported by evidence from three of the four cities (see table 2). Explaining Mayoral Approval 45 Table 4. Racial Attitudes, Racial Context, and Dimensions of Performance for Blacks Dependent Variable Black Solidarity Linked Fate Black City R2 Services Police Safety Economy Transportation General Evaluations (Eq. not sig.) Schools Crime — — — — — — −.04** −.05*** −.05** — — — −.11*** −.04** a —a −.11*** a −.09*** — .12 .05 .07 .10 .06 — — — — — −.13*** a .16*** .08 .07 NOTE.—Cell entries are unstandardized regression coefficients for the racial attitude variables and the adjusted R2’s for the models. All models include controls for gender, income, education, age, ideology and race of interviewer. Full equations are presented in Supplementary Material online. a These are the four performance measures where we can say, based on statistical significance and our criteria for confirmation of a hypothesis, that the effects of Black City are greater for whites than for blacks (see footnote 10). * p < .05. ** p < .01. *** p < .001. Table 5. for Whites Racial Attitudes, Racial Context, and Dimensions of Performance Dependent Variable Symbolic Racism Group Conflict Black City R2 Services Police Safety Economy Transportation General Evaluations Schools Crime — — −.08* — −.07* −.16** — −.25*** −.05* −.15*** — −.17*** −.06* −.10* — −.11* −.16s*** −.12*** a −.10*** a −.18*** a −.08*** — −.20*** a .08** .26 .18 .14 .28 .07 .03 .15 .06 NOTE.—Cell entries are unstandardized regression coefficients for the racial attitude variables and the adjusted R2’s for the models. All models include controls for gender, income, education, age, ideology and race of interviewer. Full equations are presented in Supplementary Material online. a These are the four performance measures where we can say, based on statistical significance and our criteria for confirmation of a hypothesis, that the effects of Black City are greater for whites than for blacks (see footnote 10). * p < .05. ** p < .01. *** p < .001. 46 Howell and Perry Even more interesting are the negative effects of living in the black cities on blacks themselves. Previous research has demonstrated the gains in sociopolitical attitudes and political participation that accrue to African Americans from living in cities with black mayors, with blacks being more trusting of government, more efficacious, and more knowledgeable about politics, and as a result, more politically active (Bobo and Gilliam, 1990). These gains in civic attitudes and participation do not extend to evaluations of concrete aspects of the quality of life.11 Perhaps this is to be expected, given the myriad of problems facing majority-minority cities. In sum, perceptions of performance are inextricably tied to racial factors in racially diverse settings. Being black negatively affects perceptions of the quality of life in the majority white cities, and living in the black majority cities has a negative effect on both blacks’ and whites’ perceptions of the quality of life. These are the underpinnings of a performance model of mayoral approval. The Performance Model of Mayoral Approval The final series of models directly tests the performance model by estimating the effects of the performance evaluations, race, and the control variables on mayoral approval (table 6). Before automatically including all of the performance dimensions in the model, we must consider the problem of reciprocal causation between the performance measures and mayoral approval. That is, people who approve of the mayor may respond more positively when asked about conditions in the city. This is a particularly sticky problem in cross-sectional studies where there is no hard evidence as to which attitude comes first. However, some performance measures are arguably more prone to this endogeneity problem than others. Specifically, we contend that reciprocal causation is more of a problem for general performance measures than for specific ones. That is, whether one likes or dislikes the mayor is much more likely to affect how respondents answer general questions about how things are going in the city, than it is to affect specific questions about the streets, the crime trend, opportunities for employment, excessive use of force by police, and most of the items comprising the performance dimensions. The specific items are less susceptible to psychological adjustments. This contention is supported by MacKuen, Erikson, and Stimson (1989) who studied presidential approval using the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment, in which three of the five items are specific, and concluded that the direction of causality went from the consumer attitudes to presidential approval. In our study the General Evaluations dimension of performance is most subject to reciprocal 11. The one exception to greater black negativism is African Americans being more likely to think that crime is decreasing in the black cities as compared to the white cities. This could be due to specific crime reduction programs introduced in Detroit and New Orleans that targeted housing projects and other low-income areas. 47 2.54*** .92* −.34 .87 * .16 .49 .33* .30*** 445 .07*** .24*** 2.0*** 1.00** .14 .65 .31 .41 .32* .25*** 428 .09*** .22*** .24*** 2.01*** 1.14** −.09 .22 .46 .58** −.08 .26*** 421 .07*** −.40** Charlotte (White City) .31*** 1.08* .94** .41 1.32*** .60 .48* .34* .32*** 443 .07*** −.31** Chicago (White City) NOTE.—Cell entries are unstandardized regression coefficients for the performance dimensions, which are coded 0 to 1. All models include controls for gender, income, education, age, party identification, and race of interviewer. Full equations are presented in Supplementary Material online. OLS = Ordinary least squares. * p < .05. ** p < .01. *** p < .001. −.61*** Detroit (Black City) .63*** New Orleans (Black City) Race, Performance, and Mayoral Approval OLS regression models Race (black) Performance: Services Police Safety Economy Transportation Schools Crime Adj. R2 N Explanatory power excluding performance measures Explanatory power excluding race Table 6. 48 Howell and Perry effects from mayoral approval because it asks broad questions about the direction of the city. Thus, taking a conservative approach, we will exclude General Evaluations from the final model of mayoral approval.12 The first conclusion to be drawn is that performance matters in evaluating both the black mayors and the white mayors, confirming hypothesis 5. Two performance dimensions influence mayoral approval in all four cities, Services and Police; and perceptions of crime influences approval in three of the four cities. Perceptions of government services have the largest impact in all cities. Recall that this scale is composed of nine items where citizens rate services ranging from parks to pollution control. Apparently, delivery of these city services is an important determinant of mayoral approval. For example, the interpretation of the Detroit coefficient is that movement from being negative on all of the municipal services (score = 0) to being positive on all of the municipal services (score = 1) would result in a change of 2.54 points on the 5-point mayoral approval scale. The influence of the Police and Crime dimensions on mayoral approval indicates the importance of crime control in these urban areas. Evaluations of police have more impact on mayoral approval than perceptions of whether crime is increasing or decreasing. Perhaps this is due to the visibility of police and to the high level of responsibility that urban citizens give to their police. Alternatively, it could be due to less measurement error in the Police scale, which consists of five indicators, compared to the single indicator used to measure crime. With multiple measures of performance it is difficult to grasp the influence of performance as a whole. One method is simply to manipulate coefficients associated with the significant performance measures and observe the predicted effect on mayoral approval. Taking Charlotte as an example, movement from the lowest to the highest score on Police, Services, and Schools would produce a 3.73 point (2.01 + 1.14 + .58 = 3.73) movement on the 5-point mayoral approval scale. However, this scenario overestimates the impact of performance because it is unlikely that pairs of people exist who are uniformly negative versus uniformly positive on all three performance measures. A more conservative approach to estimating performance effects would be to manipulate certain performance items by arbitrary amounts and add the 12. Another approach would be to create an instrumented variable of General Evaluations that would be purged of the reciprocal effects of mayoral approval and use two-stage least squares. However, creating an instrument requires finding variables in the data that affect General Evaluations without directly affecting mayoral approval. We tried using various combinations of demographics, but the explanatory power was so weak that an adequate instrumented General Evaluations could not be constructed. We also rejected using the seven specific dimensions to create an instrumented General Evaluations, because the specifics are hypothesized to directly affect mayoral approval, and, again, the explanatory power was low, .17. There is probably a component of General Evaluations that is not affected by mayoral approval, as the General Evaluations questions came before the mayoral approval question in the interviews. However, because General Evaluations cannot be purged of reciprocal effects in these cross-sectional surveys, it was decided to exclude General Evaluations from the final model. Explaining Mayoral Approval 49 effects. For example, continuing with the Charlotte example, movement of one-fourth of the range of the Services, Police, and Schools scales (e.g., from 0 to .25 or from .50 to .75) would yield a .93 point shift in the 5-point mayoral approval scale, holding other variables constant. This result is still a notable shift in approval. A second method of assessing the performance model is to examine its explanatory power. We use the method recommended by Gujarati (1995, pp. 456–57), which involves dropping sets of explanatory variables and observing the effects on explained variance. Beginning with the full model, the explanatory power ranges from .25 to .32. However, when all of the performance measures are excluded, the explanatory power drops to between .07 and .09. Obviously, performance accounts for much of the variance that is explained in these models of mayoral approval. It is important to note that, regardless of the method used, performance effects are not clearly greater for the black mayors or the white mayors, nor is any performance measure more influential in black or white cities.13 The coefficients of determination and the results of the explanatory power analysis are remarkably similar across these four cities. But the importance of specific performance dimensions varies from city to city in ways unrelated to the race of the mayor and city. The impact of the specific aspects of performance probably varies over time and across locales depending on circumstances and events. How does race add to our understanding of the performance model in these racially diverse cities? Race has considerable impact on mayoral approval in New Orleans and Detroit, and a moderate effect in Charlotte and Chicago, even with controls for the seven performance measures, party identification, and other control variables. Consistent with hypothesis 6, race has more impact on approval of the black mayors than on approval of the white mayors. To confirm this finding, the data were pooled and an interaction between race and black city was added to the model. The interaction coefficient was positive and significant at p < .01. The conditioning effect of racial context was expected because a black mayor and majority black context are the exceptional situations for most Americans, which draw attention to race and elevate its importance. Turning to the explanatory power of race, it is clear that dropping race from the models reduces explanatory power, and more so for the black mayors than for the white mayors. In New Orleans and Detroit, explanatory power is reduced by 3 and 6 percent, whereas in Charlotte and Chicago the reduction is only 2 and 1 percent. Thus, race has both more impact and more explanatory power when evaluating the black mayors than when evaluating the white mayors. The main conclusion to be drawn from table 6 is that performance matters in evaluating both the black and white mayors. In spite of the racial polarization in mayoral approval, many citizens are observing conditions in their city 13. The coefficients for Schools are significant only in the white cities, but pooling the data and adding an interaction term, Schools*BlackCity, indicates that the difference between black and white cities is insignificant. 50 Howell and Perry and giving the mayor credit or blame. Successful performance can and does overcome race as a predictor of approval. All four of these mayors had at least 57 percent approval from both races. Thus, based on the evidence from these four cities, we tentatively conclude that the performance model, which is commonly used to explain presidential and gubernatorial approval, can be generalized to mayors. Hypotheses 7 and 8 predict that racial attitudes should be added to mayoral approval models. However, only two of sixteen possible coefficients associated with racial attitudes were even statistically significant. We conclude, somewhat to our surprise, that racial attitudes, as measured by symbolic racism, group conflict, black solidarity, and linked fate, do not add to our understanding of approval of mayors in these racially diverse settings.14 Conclusion and Discussion Performance models have been the norm in research on national and state executives, but this model has not been tested systematically beyond one city at the local level. When Niemi and his colleagues argued for a test of state economics on gubernatorial voting (Niemi, Stanley, and Vogel 1995, p. 938), they cited the visibility of a single governor, the election by citizens statewide, the fact of four-year terms, and the practice of holding state elections in different years than the presidential election. All of these factors apply to most mayors as well. However, the performance model, whether based on economics or something else, faces a complication at the local level, and that is the presence of black executives. The vast literature documenting racial polarization in the elections of black mayors strongly suggests that racial factors should be added to this model when examining the approval of mayors in racially diverse settings. Our test of the performance model on two black mayors and two white mayors indicates that performance does indeed affect mayoral approval, and both its impact and explanatory power are greater than that of race for both the black and the white mayors. Performance measures add between 16 and 25 percent to the explanatory power of the models of mayoral approval beyond race, racial attitudes, and important demographic variables. In contrast, race adds only 1 to 6 percent to explanatory power. Furthermore, the overall effect of performance is not related to the race of the mayor. All of these are reassuring findings given the bivariate racial polarization in mayoral approval and 14. Why is race itself influential while racial attitudes are so weak? In the case of blacks, one possibility is that limitations in the attitude scales result in a failure to capture the full richness of black identity or black consciousness. The concept, Linked Fate, is measured by only one indicator, and Black Solidarity taps support for collective action, only one form of black consciousness. In the case of whites, the racial attitudes, Symbolic Racism and Group Conflict, do not purport to be measures of white racial identity; they are best described as measures of antiblack feelings and competition with blacks. So, for both blacks and whites, it is likely that, in this research, much of the concept, racial identity, is still captured by the simple demographic, race. Explaining Mayoral Approval 51 suggest that we are making progress toward a “normalization” of black executives in some locations (see also Hajnal 2001). One of the unique aspects of this study is the comprehensive measure of performance. Conceptually, the local level is more than just the third level below the national and state levels. The meaning of “performance” is qualitatively different at the local level, in that citizens can evaluate many aspects of performance firsthand. In contrast, most information about state, and certainly national, conditions is obtained from the media. This distinction gives “performance” at the local level a richness and complexity not possible at the two higher levels of government. As we would expect, racial polarization remains in all four cities, and race has more impact on approval of the black mayors than the white mayors. Other black mayors would certainly not be surprised to hear this. The mayors in our two majority black cities must also face a citizenry that is more dissatisfied with a variety of municipal services than citizens in the white cities. This greater dissatisfaction is not limited to white citizens, but exists among their black constituents as well. White mayors in the majority white cities, on the other hand, face an electorate that is more racially polarized with regard to performance. That is, the gap between black and white evaluations of a variety of aspects of local government performance is greater than in the black cities. Race has direct effects on the approval of the white mayors, as well as indirect effects through the performance evaluations. It should be noted that approval does not automatically translate to support at the polls. Given the history of racial polarization in elections, it is safe to say that race influences vote more than it influences approval. Approval is an “easy” response to a survey question, and it is usually given without the charged atmosphere of an election campaign. In contrast, voting is behavior, which is more likely to activate basic predispositions and identities. Nonetheless, between elections, approval ratings have political impact for mayors as well as for presidents and thus deserve explanation from public opinion researchers. The performance model should be examined in a greater variety of urban settings. Future research should examine majority white cities with black mayors, majority black cities with white mayors, and cities with Latino mayors. Such research will more firmly settle the question of the generalizability of the performance model to the local level and further clarify the role of race and ethnicity. Appendix THE SURVEYS The Mayoral Approval Surveys were conducted between May and August 2000 in four cities, New Orleans, Detroit, Chicago, and Charlotte, NC by the University of New 52 Howell and Perry Orleans Survey Research Center. This project was funded by the National Science Foundation (Award #9986165). All surveys included only registered voters. Nearly equal numbers of blacks and whites were interviewed in each city in order to maximize variance on race, a key independent variable. Thus, the samples do not represent cross sections of each city’s registered voters, but they do represent a cross section of whites or blacks in each city. In order to obtain the desired number of respondents from the minority race, first the cross-sectional sample was exhausted. Then, areas of 40 percent or more minority race concentration were used to obtain the needed number. This was necessary due to the practical difficulties and expense of finding respondents from the minority race (whether white or black) in a cross-sectional sample. For example, Detroit is only 20 percent white, so a cross-sectional sample yielding 250 blacks would only include 112 whites. The more targeted sampling allowed us to obtain the required number of whites without extraordinary costs. However, this method does oversample minorities (white or black) who live among 40 percent or more minorities. Samples, drawn by Survey Sampling of Fairfield, CT, used a random digit dialing procedure, to which the survey center applied a screen for registered voters. Response Rate #3 in AAPOR’s Standard Definitions: Final Disposition of Case Codes and Outcome Rates and RDD Telephone Surveys and In-Person Household Surveys was utilized, and the response rates in the four cities were as follows: New Orleans—63 percent, Chicago—55 percent, Charlotte—58 percent, and Detroit—53 percent. These response rates are respectable considering that half of the sample is urban minorities, a largely low-income group who are more difficult to include in telephone surveys. Interviewers for all four surveys were university students. The interviews were conducted from a central phone bank with constant supervision by a graduate student. The survey center used a CATI system to manage the sample, and as many as fifteen attempts were made to reach respondents. The final number of blacks and whites interviewed in each city is presented in Table 1. QUESTION WORDING Mayoral Approval: In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job Mayor XX is doing? (PAUSE) Is that strongly or not very strongly? Services: I would like to ask you about government and government services in the city. Is each of the following aspects of government very good, good, fair, poor, or very poor? Overall level of government services? Drainage and flood control? Control of abandoned housing? Health services? Services for the poor? Quality of housing? Control of litter and trash? Parks and recreation? Control of pollution? Police: I would like to ask you about government and government services in the city. Is each of the following aspects of government very good, good, fair, poor, or very poor? Police protection. How would you rate the [city] police on the following? The ability of the [city] police to respond quickly to calls for help and assistance? The ability of the police to find the criminals after a crime has been committed? Being courteous, helpful, and friendly? Avoiding the use of unnecessary or excessive force? Safety: In general, how safe do you feel from crime walking in your neighborhood during the day? (very safe, safe, not very safe, not at all safe). During the night? Explaining Mayoral Approval 53 Walking downtown at night? Turning to crime and safety, would you say that the amount of crime in [city] has increased, decreased, or remained about the same over the last several years? Economy: Now I’d like to ask you some questions about the economy in [city]. Is each of the following very good, good, fair, poor, or very poor? Opportunities for employment? Likelihood of new jobs and industry coming into the city? Likelihood of your family increasing its income in the next several years? Transportation: Now I would like to ask you about transportation in [city]. Are each of the following very good, good, fair, poor, or very poor? Conditions of your local streets and roads? Availability of public transportation within the city? Control of traffic congestion? General Evaluations: Thinking back over the last five years, would you say that [city] has become a better or worse place to live, or hasn’t there been any change? And thinking ahead over the next five years, do you think that [city] will become a better or worse place to live, or won’t there be much of a change? Schools: Now thinking about education, how would you rate the quality of public schools in [city], very good, good, fair, poor, or very poor? Symbolic Racism: (1) Over the past few years blacks have gotten less than they deserve (agree strongly to disagree strongly). (2) Irish, Italians, Jews, and other minorities overcame prejudice and worked their way up. Blacks should do the same without any special favors. (3) In past studies, we have asked people why they think white people seem to get more of the good things in life in America—such as better jobs and more money—than black people do. These are some of the reasons given by both blacks and whites. It’s really just a matter of some people not trying hard enough. If blacks would only try harder, they could be just as well off as whites. (4) Generations of slavery and discrimination have created conditions that make it difficult for blacks to work their way out of the lower class. Group Conflict: (1) More good jobs for blacks means fewer good jobs for members of other groups (agree strongly to disagree strongly). (2) The more influence blacks have in local politics the less influence members of other groups will have in politics. 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