UK Centre for the Measurement of
Government Activity:
Measuring the Output of the Probation
Service
Allan Baird
UK Centre for the Measurement of Government Activity
Measuring the Output of the Probation Service June 2010
UKCeMGA: Measuring the Output of the Probation Service
1.
Summary
1.1
The UK Centre for the Measurement of Government Activity (UKCeMGA) in the
Office for National Statistics publishes estimates of public service output and
productivity. Productivity is measured by dividing an index of the volume of output by
an index of the volume of inputs. Productivity, output and inputs measures are
calculated for total public services and by service area. This article discusses
improvements to the output measure for one of these service areas, probation.
1.2
In the National Accounts, the £930 million of expenditure in 2008 on the probation
service is 0.06 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 0.30 per cent of
General Government Final Consumption Expenditure in current prices.
1.3
The probation service is the part of the criminal justice system. It supervises
offenders who are given community and suspended sentences by the courts, as well
as offenders given custodial sentences, both before and after their release.
Responsibility for the probation service is devolved in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
This article uses data for England and Wales as a proxy for the United Kingdom. The
probation service generally deals with those aged 18 years and over. Those under 18
are mostly dealt with by Youth Offending Teams, answering to the Youth Justice
Board.
1.4
According to the Ministry of Justice (2008a), factors affecting probation service flows
and caseload are:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
the number of cases passing through the courts and the number found guilty
remand decisions and the length of time spent on remand
the custody and court order rates at the courts
average sentence length given
release policies
other changes to policy and legislation
the number of offenders breaching court orders and
the number of prisoners recalled to custody.
1.5
The main types of supervision for offences committed on or after 4 April 2005 are
community orders and suspended sentence orders. These must include one of a list
of twelve requirements such as supervision, unpaid work and drug treatment.
1.6
Suspended sentence orders were introduced for offences which pass the custody
threshold. These are offences which meet the test under Section 152(2) of the
Criminal Justice Act 2003:
“The court must not pass a custodial sentence unless it is of the opinion that the
offence, or the combination of the offence and one or more offences associated with
it, was so serious that neither a fine alone nor a community sentence can be justified
for the offence.”
1.7
Also under the Criminal Justice Act 2003 those sentenced to 12 months or more in
custody will be released on licence at the halfway point of the sentence instead of the
three-quarter point unless considered dangerous. For the entire remaining period of
their sentence they will remain on licence and subject to recall if they breach the
conditions of their licence.
1.8
As a result, there have been large increases in the use of suspended and community
sentences (Figure 1).
UK Centre for the Measurement of Government Activity
Measuring the Output of the Probation Service June 2010
Figure 1
Sentencing trends, 2000–2008
England and Wales
100%
80%
Immediate cus tody
60%
O ther dis pos als
F ines
S us pended s entence
40%
C ommunity s entences
20%
0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Number of disposals
Outcome
2000
Fines
Community sentences
Other disposals
Immediate custody
Suspended sentence
Total sentenced
2006
2007
2008
961,535
190,837
138,673
96,017
33,509
941,534
196,424
140,890
95,206
40,688
890,296
190,171
140,921
99,525
41,151
-12.1
22.3
-3.6
-6.3
1239.6
1,424,349 1,348,494 1,419,608 1,489,827 1,547,353 1,482,453 1,420,571 1,414,742 1,362,064
-4.4
1,013,347
155,538
146,205
106,187
3,072
2001
2002
930,121
164,997
144,348
106,273
2,755
972,737 1,033,617 1,082,691 1,025,064
186,520 191,681 202,946 204,247
146,225 154,142 152,539 142,240
111,607 107,670 106,322 101,236
2,519
2,717
2,855
9,666
2003
2004
2005
Percentage
change
2000 to
2008
Source: Sentencing Statistics 2008 Table 1.2, Ministry of Justice
1.9
The current estimate of probation output is calculated using a cost-weighted activity
index based on implied workload hours for probation starts, community service,
combination orders, licences, pre-sentence reports and a measure of the probation
work done in the family court. This was constructed by the Home Office.
1.10
As noted in the Criminal Justice Scoping Report ONS (2008 para 4.16–17) and
Atkinson (2005 para 10.10), the data used in the National Accounts are based on
sampling exercises carried out in 1997 and 1998. No new data have been used since
1998/99 so the index is extrapolated from a short time series and takes no account of
major changes in offender management in the last ten years.
1.11
Ideally a new index would be constructed using a combination of different types of
activity over time (Figure 2). However, unit costs for these activities are not available.
UK Centre for the Measurement of Government Activity
Measuring the Output of the Probation Service June 2010
Figure 2
Potential Index for probation service activity
Probation Services
All court orders
Court Reports
Caseload
All community sentences
Other sentences
Pre & post release supervision
Community order
Deferred sentence
Pre release supervision
CRO
Suspended sentence order
Post release supervision
Magistrates' courts
Crown Court
Standard PSR
Standard PSR
Fast Delivery PSR written
Fast Delivery PSR written
Fast Delivery PSR oral
Fast Delivery PSR oral
Deferred sentence
Deferred sentence
PSR breach
PSR breach
Court Review
Court Review
CPO
CPO (breach)
CPRO
DTTO
C&YP 1969
SSSO
MPSO
UK Centre for the Measurement of Government Activity
Measuring the Output of the Probation Service June 2010
1.12
Until such a measure is available it is proposed that ONS replaces the extrapolated
data with current data and uses an index based on the population under probation
service supervision in England and Wales. This is published annually by the Ministry
of Justice and counts each person receiving supervision on 31 December. Where
people were subject to more than one type of supervision they are counted only once
in the total. The index is then calculated by dividing the population for each year by
the value for 1997 and multiplying by a hundred (Figure 3).
1.13
This reduces the overall index by 9 per cent between 1997 and 2008 (Figure 3) and
reduces average annual growth from 4.9 per cent to 3.9 per cent over this period.
Using more recent data in the new measure captures large growth of 10.2 per cent in
1998 and annual average growth of 5.3 per cent between 2002 and 2007 with more
limited growth in 2000, 2001 and 2008 and a slight decline in 1999.
Figure 3
Comparison of new and current measure for probation service activity
180.0
160.0
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
New measure (Index 1997=100)
Estimated population under Probation Service supervision1
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
147,700 159,200 175,500 175,100 175,600 177,600 191,400 199,200 209,500 224,100 235,000 242,700 243,400
New measure (Index 1997=100)
Current measure (Index 1997=100)
1
2003
Current measure (Index 1997=100)
100.0
110.2
110.0
110.3
111.6
120.2
125.1
131.6
140.8
147.6
152.5
152.9
100.0
104.9
110.3
115.9
121.8
127.9
134.4
141.3
148.4
156.0
163.8
168.7
Source: Offender Management Caseload Statistics Table 1.2, Ministry of Justice and Office for National Statistics
Adjusted before 2002 for change in the data collection system
1.14
The new measure will be used in the Total Public Sector Productivity article (ONS,
forthcoming) and will be put forward for inclusion in future National Accounts. ONS
will also seek unit costs and comparable measures for Scotland and Northern Ireland.
UK Centre for the Measurement of Government Activity
2.
Measuring the Output of the Probation Service June 2010
References
Atkinson A (2005), Atkinson Review: Final Report. Measurement of Government Output and
Productivity for the National Accounts, Palgrave Macmillan: Basingstoke, available at:
www.statistics.gov.uk/about/data/methodology/specific/PublicSector/atkinson/final_report.asp
Her Majesty’s Stationery Office (2003) Criminal Justice Act available at
www.opsi.gov.uk/acts/acts2003/ukpga_20030044_en_1
Ministry of Justice (2008a), Offender Management Caseload Statistics available at
www.justice.gov.uk/publications/prisonandprobation.htm
Ministry of Justice (2008b), Sentencing Statistics 2008 available at
www.justice.gov.uk/publications/sentencingannual.htm
ONS (2008), Criminal Justice System: Scoping Document available at
www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/article.asp?id=1952
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