TEN TRENDLETTER JUNE 2016
THE PREDICTIVE FUTURE
To help our clients make better decisions in a rapidly
Many of these applications come from the field of
changing world, The Executive Network regularly analyses
security. For example, Predata can predict political
the latest trends and innovations. In the previous
developments by monitoring over 1,000 Twitter accounts,
Trendletter we focused on the circular economy.
10,000 Wikipedia pages, 50,000 YouTube videos and dozens
This time we want to inspire you with developments in
of newspapers and magazines in over 200 countries each
predictive analytics.
day. The software predicted a 61% chance of another
attack in France, a month before the Paris attacks. In
The topics discussed were selected by analysing thousands
the world of sports we can also make a whole series of
of articles from various leading universities worldwide,
predictions. For example, the Universiteit of Californië
emerging applications, progressive blogs, crowdfunding
managed to predict the right winner in 80% of NBA
websites and interesting startups.
basketball games. Forbes recently put predictive analytics
at number 1 in its Hottest Big Data technologies. In this
The digitisation of society is leading to a huge growth in
Trendletter we take a look at interesting developments in
data. Each day around 2.5 quintillion (18 zeros) bytes of
the field of predictive analytics for companies and consumers.
data are added. Thanks to faster and more affordable
hardware and software and a growing number of available
datasets, we can discover more and more specific and
interesting connections and facts. With the rise of
predictive analytics, we can use these data to predict
events with increasing accuracy.
TEN - The Executive Network | Rijksstraatweg 426 | 2243 CH Wassenaar
T. 070-5121933 | E. [email protected] | W. www.executivenetwork.nl
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TEN Trendletter
THE PREDICTIVE FUTURE
There are many factors to consider when managing a company or department: responding to changes in the market, internal changes,
clients cancelling their contracts and new regulations. Predictive analytics can make managing a lot easier, for example by allowing
managers to predict the departure of employees in advance, to know which clients will cancel their contracts and to implement very
targeted B2B communication.
Staff turnover is an expensive problem. Ideally an employer should sense
Now that the quantity of data is growing exponentially, there is also an
when an employee is open to a new challenge. With Skytree companies can
increasing awareness that these data can contribute to a much more effective
use predictive analytics to be informed about a potential departure before the
marketing or HR policy. But it is not easy to analyse many different large
employee is even aware of it. The Skytree platform uses machine learning to
datasets in order to make predictions based on the results. The technology,
prevent the loss of productive employees, based on analyses of data such as
data and experts are there, but many companies are still struggling to bring
the employee’s position, promotions, period of employment, relocations and
these elements together. This is why Dataiku has developed Data Science Studio,
satisfaction surveys. Companies can thus identify the most important factors
a collaborative software platform that allows companies to generate predictions
that lead to the departure of employees and adapt their policy accordingly.
with the data available to them. The user-friendly system is used for churn
The most recent investment of 18 million dollars came from companies such
analyses, fraud investigations, market demand prediction and preventative
as American Express and United Parcel Service (UPS).
maintenance. In 2015 the French startup received an investment of €3.2 million.
Where in the past we mostly looked at groups, Zodiac now mostly looks at the
Our online behaviour can tell companies a lot about our current interests and
individual. This startup has developed a system which analyses precise individual
future wishes. For years now, websites have used cookies for ‘retargeting’:
information about the development of a customer. The tool does not look back,
directed and repeated statements according to online behaviour. The British
but rather forward, based on real time sales data. Addressing new customers
startup Idio believes it is high time for a more intelligent B2B content strategy.
is of course important, but retaining customers also ensures great profitability.
According to Idio, 60 to 70% of all B2B communication is not relevant. By studying
Preact, a company based in San Francisco, predicts which customers are likely
online reading habits, Idio can predict when and which B2B communication will be
to churn, extend or upgrade. Usage patterns and behavioural patterns are mapped
the most interesting and effective for each individual. Interests are measured by
and predicted using machine learning, behavioural science and Big Data analysis.
looking at the content that the business consumes. In April the company received
At the end of last year Preact received another injection of 7 million dollars.
an investment of 1.5 million dollars.
TEN - The Executive Network | Rijksstraatweg 426 | 2243 CH Wassenaar
T. 070-5121933 | E. [email protected] | W. www.executivenetwork.nl
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TEN Trendletter
THE PREDICTIVE FUTURE
What can predictive analytics do to help businesses reach consumers? And what does this mean for consumers themselves? These
days all kinds of innovations in technology are already making things easier for us and giving us a better quality of life. Thanks to
predictive systems, this will be even more true in the future. We will buy a house with an awareness of the equity over 36 months,
read an advert for coffee just before we pour a cup and know how to get better before we feel ill.
We all move the same facial muscles when we feel happy, scared or angry.
The property market is constantly on the move and it requires foresight from
Emotion Research LAB has developed an algorithm for facial recognition that it
consumers and investors. While property used to be reputed for holding
is offering for marketing, retail and political purposes. The company works from
its value, today the market is less predictable. HouseCanary claims to have
the idea that we mostly make decisions not according to rational, but rather
the best valuation models which they can use to predict future equity or
emotional considerations. Over one hundred facial muscles are analysed using
negative equity. Different datasets such as price trends, sale prices and home
a camera. Not in a research environment, but within the target group in the real
improvement history are combined with data on capital markets, mortgages and
world. The tool can thus directly predict which customers passing by a shelf in
macroeconomics. The results so far are impressive: over a period of 3 years, the
a store want to buy or are still unsure, or how a political campaign will succeed.
predictive analytics only differ from the actual values by 1.1%. This means that
For example in Mexico, several candidates used Emotion Research LAB’s tool
HouseCanary currently makes forecasts that are 36% more accurate than its
during the elections. Passers-by who looked at a digital billboard were studied at
competitors.
the same time. Using these data, the message, the image and sound were then
fully adapted according to the voter’s taste.
What if you could predict who runs the greatest risk of falling ill in the coming
weeks, months or years? At the startup Lumiata, clinicians, data specialists and
Traditional advertising is aimed at the masses, which means that it also reaches many
healthcare experts have joined forces to develop the world’s first Medical Graph.
consumers outside the target group. Nowadays, thanks to insight into the customer
Based on the analysis of over 200 million datapoints - diagnoses, therapies,
journey, content is becoming increasingly targeted. The Belgian company Sentiance
medical guidelines and protocols - this tool provides extremely personal insights
goes even further: they are one of the first players in the world to offer companies
into current and future health and into the risks and costs for individuals and
context-aware software. Based on data from everything that is smart and wearable, the
populations. Medical Graph should enable the healthcare system to diagnose,
tool determines the context and mood. This can be used to predict a latent need that
prevent and manage illnesses 100 times faster. Until now Lumiata has identified
may become relevant in the near future. For example, a coffee brand or energy drink
500,000 instances of a so-called treatment gap, or cases in which people with an
can be brought to the consumer’s attention after a short night’s sleep. The possibilities
illness need treatment that they have not yet received. nog niet ontvangen.
for targeted and context-aware communication appear to be endless. In November the
startup received another 5.2 million dollars in financing from Samsung.
We hope that we have been able to inspire you about the developments
surrounding the predictive analytics with this Trendletter.
The next TEN Trendletter will be published in August 2016.
Any questions and comments are welcome at:
[email protected]
TEN - The Executive Network | Rijksstraatweg 426 | 2243 CH Wassenaar
T. 070-5121933 | E. [email protected] | W. www.executivenetwork.nl
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