THE UNIVERSITY OF THE WEST INDIES
ST. AUGUSTINE, TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO, WEST INDIES
FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES
Department of Political Science
Telephone: (868) 662-2002, Exts. 82403, 83058, 82406 Fax: (868) 662-6295
CONSTITUTIONAL AFFAIRS AND PARLIAMENTARY STUDIES UNIT
CAPSU-CNMG OPINION POLL REPORT
Report on the findings of a National Survey to measure public
opinion for the 2015 general election in Trinidad and Tobago conducted over the period
10th – 13th July, 2015 in Trinidad and in Tobago
by
Dr. Hamid Ghany
Senior Lecturer in Political Science
and Coordinator, Constitutional Affairs
and Parliamentary Studies Unit (C.A.P.S.U.)
University of the West Indies, St. Augustine
[email protected]
Introduction
At the request of the management of the Caribbean New Media Group (CNMG), the
Constitutional Affairs and Parliamentary Studies Unit (CAPSU) at the University of the West Indies, St.
Augustine Campus was retained to undertake a national opinion poll so as to provide their viewers and
listeners with some sense of where the general election stood in relation to the preferences of the public.
An opinion poll was conducted over the period 10th – 13th July, 2015 under my direction as the
lead analyst and my CAPSU colleague, Dr. Maukesh Basdeo, as the second analyst. The questionnaire
that was used was pre-tested with the field interviewers on Wednesday 8th July, 2015 and they were
distributed to them on Thursday 9th July, 2015.
These field interviewers were also given a written guideline on how to conduct a face-to-face poll
using the intercept method. The guideline was discussed with them at the same meeting where the
questionnaire was pre-tested.
A total of 1,820 questionnaires were administered in Trinidad and 498 in Tobago. The margin of
error in Trinidad was calculated at +/– 3% and the margin of error in Tobago was calculated at +/- 5%.
Using the marginality formula that I invented as part of my methodology for the 2001 - 2003
Commonwealth Parliamentary Association (C.P.A.) research project on public perceptions of Parliament
in Trinidad and Tobago that I led, I decided to use a virtual zoom lens to focus on those constituencies
that fell inside the line of 2,300 votes between first and second candidates based on results from the 2010
general election.
I used the information for the Annual List of Electors that was made public on 1st July, 2015
which allowed me to calculate the outer limit of marginality (the value of M) so as to list those
constituencies which would either fall inside or outside of the value of M. The outer limit of marginality
with the July 1st 2015 electoral registration data was set at 3,372 for the survey.
Marginality Formula
In conducting the national survey, it was decided to use parliamentary electoral constituencies as
a natural geographical basis for gathering the data. To this end, the official results of the general elections
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of 24th May, 2010 provided the basis for the choice of constituencies together with the boundary changes
contained in the Report of the Elections and Boundaries Commission dated 29th January, 2014. I
combined that information with my marginality formula.
In order to ensure that a national survey could be done, it was decided that the two Tobago
constituencies would be surveyed and their results tabulated separately.
The use of marginality as a geographical and political basis for seeking opinions would be best
owing to the expectation of the presence of relatively equal levels of competing political opinions in the
selected constituencies. My marginality formula is designed to calculate an outer limit for marginality in
order to prescribe areas where field interviewers should be sent as opposed to predicting electoral
outcomes.
The symbols for this formula are M for marginality and D for the mid-point spread of the deposit
level for the largest (L) and smallest (S) constituencies if everyone were to vote. This formula applies to
electoral systems that use the first past-the-post method where the retention of the deposit of every
candidate is calculated at one-eighth of the total votes cast in a constituency. The deposit is a fundamental
statistical benchmark and can serve as a guide to determine where a survey should be conducted if
marginality is the key element in the search for truly mixed political opinions because in marginal
constituencies the first and second candidates will always save their deposits owing to the fact that
marginality always tends to move closer to zero as the difference between the first and second candidates.
The constituencies with the largest electorate (L) and the smallest electorate (S) must be divided
by 8 and then their difference divided by 2 in order to calculate D. Therefore, the formula is :
(L/8 – S/8) / 2 = D
Once D is determined, then the statistical formula for calculating the outer limit of marginality
(M) is : {(L/8) – D = (S/8) + D} = M.
Using my marginality formula with the 2015 Annual List of Electors, the following emerged :
L = Toco-Sangre Grande
= 30,038
S = Port-of-Spain South
= 23,915
30,038 / 8
= 3754.75
23,915 / 8
= 2989.375
3754.75 – 2989.375
= 765.375
765.375 / 2
= 382.6875
3754.75 – 382.6875
= 3372.0625
2989.375 + 3382.6875
= 3372.0625
M = 3,372.0625
Under the circumstances, M was rounded down to the nearest whole number for purposes of this
survey, so that M = > 3,372.
Marginality
When the value of M (> 3,372) was applied to the results of the 2010 general election on the basis
of measuring the difference between the first and second candidates in all constituencies, the following
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marginal constituencies in Trinidad emerged with a difference between first and second that was less than
the outer limit of marginality (> 3,372):
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Arima (364) (2010 turnout 62.74%) (leaning COP)
Diego Martin North East (463) (2010 turnout 60.80%)(leaning PNM)
Point Fortin (655) (2010 turnout 68.63%)(leaning PNM)
Toco/Sangre Grande (700) (2010 turnout 66.19%)(leaning UNC)
Diego Martin Central (993) (2010 turnout 62.86%)(leaning PNM)
Lopinot / Bon Air West (1,003) (2010 turnout 71.82%)(leaning COP)
Diego Martin West (1,046) (2010 turnout 60.81%)(leaning PNM)
La Horquetta / Talparo (1,079) (2010 turnout 68.80%)(leaning UNC)
San Fernando West (1,251) (2010 turnout 72.80%)(leaning COP)
D’Abadie / O’Meara (1,343) (2010 turnout 69.65%)(leaning COP)
Tunapuna (2,297) (2010 turnout 74.08%)(leaning COP)
La Brea (2,564) (2010 turnout 71.07%)(leaning PNM)
Port-of-Spain South (2,770) (2010 turnout 53.56%)(leaning PNM)
St. Ann’s East (2,776) (2010 turnout 60.38%)(leaning PNM)
Moruga / Tableland (2,947) (2010 turnout 77.25%)(leaning UNC)
Port-of-Spain North / St. Ann’s West (2,968) (2010 turnout 57.63%)(leaning PNM)
St. Joseph (3,057) (2010 turnout 72.12%)(now leaning PNM since 2013 by election)
When the boundary changes recommended by the Elections and Boundaries Commission in their
Report dated 29th January, 2014 and approved by the House of Representatives are factored in, the
following revised marginality sequence emerged with adjusted first over second place figures :
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Arima (364) (2010 turnout 62.74%) (leaning COP)
Diego Martin North East (was 463 now 618) (2010 turnout 60.80%)(leaning PNM)
Point Fortin (655) (2010 turnout 68.63%)(leaning PNM)
Toco/Sangre Grande (700) (2010 turnout 66.19%)(leaning UNC)
Diego Martin Central (was 993 now 832) (2010 turnout 62.86%)(leaning PNM)
Lopinot / Bon Air West (1,003) (2010 turnout 71.82%)(leaning COP)
Diego Martin West (was 1,046 now 1,269) (2010 turnout 60.81%)(leaning PNM)
La Horquetta / Talparo (1,079) (2010 turnout 68.80%)(leaning UNC)
San Fernando West (was 1,251 now 1,084) (2010 turnout 72.80%)(leaning COP)
D’Abadie / O’Meara (1,343) (2010 turnout 69.65%)(leaning COP)
Tunapuna (2,297) (2010 turnout 74.08%)(leaning COP)
La Brea (2,564) (2010 turnout 71.07%)(leaning PNM)
San Fernando East (was 3,627 now 2,610) (boundaries changed for 2015) (leaning PNM)
Port-of-Spain South (was 2,770 now 2,813) (2010 turnout 53.56%)(leaning PNM)
St. Ann’s East (2,776) (2010 turnout 60.38%)(leaning PNM)
Moruga / Tableland (2,947) (2010 turnout 77.25%)(leaning UNC)
Port-of-Spain North / St. Ann’s West (2,968 now 2,751) (2010 turnout 57.63%)(leaning PNM)
St. Joseph (was 3,057) (2010 turnout 72.12%)(now 780 leaning PNM from UNC since 2013 byeelection)(bye-election turnout 52.99%)
These marginal constituencies emerged on the basis of using the difference between the first and
second candidates in the results of the 2010 general election and then re-calculating the differences
between first and second candidates on the basis of boundary changes implemented by the EBC for the
2015 general election.
On 21st April, 2010, five political organizations (the United National Congress, the Congress of
the People, the National Joint Action Committee, the Movement for Social Justice and the Tobago
Organization of the People) signed a document establishing the People’s Partnership in which they
undertook not to contest against each other in the forty-one constituencies.
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This partnership still exists minus the Movement for Social Justice, therefore, the opinion poll
used the classification PP as the option that included the remaining members of the People’s Partnership.
As a consequence, the following constituencies in Trinidad can be considered marginal in relation
to the 2015 general election based on my marginality formula, when combined with revised boundary
information and the results of the bye-election in 2013 in St. Joseph, owing to the fact that their projected
marginality based on 2010 (and 2013) electoral data fell inside of 3,372 :
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
Arima (364) (2010 turnout 62.74%) (leaning COP)
*Diego Martin North East (now 618 was 463) (2010 turnout 60.80%)(leaning PNM)
Point Fortin (655) (2010 turnout 68.63%)(leaning PNM)
Toco/Sangre Grande (700) (2010 turnout 66.19%)(leaning UNC)
+St. Joseph (now 780 was 3,057) (2010 turnout 72.12%)(2013 turnout 52.99%)(leaning PNM
since 2013 bye-election after being UNC in 2010 general election)
*Diego Martin Central (now 832 was 993) (2010 turnout 62.86%)(leaning PNM)
Lopinot / Bon Air West (1,003) (2010 turnout 71.82%)(leaning COP)
La Horquetta / Talparo (1,079) (2010 turnout 68.80%)(leaning UNC)
*San Fernando West (now 1,084 was 1,251) (2010 turnout 72.80%)(leaning COP)
*Diego Martin West (now 1,269 was 1,046) (2010 turnout 60.81%)(leaning PNM)
D’Abadie / O’Meara (1,343) (2010 turnout 69.65%)(leaning COP)
Tunapuna (2,297) (2010 turnout 74.08%)(leaning COP)
La Brea (2,564) (2010 turnout 71.07%)(leaning PNM)
*San Fernando East (now 2,610 was 3,627) (boundaries changed for 2015) (leaning PNM)
*Port-of-Spain North / St. Ann’s West (now 2,751 was 2,968) (2010 turnout 57.63%)(leaning
PNM)
*Port-of-Spain South (now 2,813 was 2,770) (2010 turnout 53.56%)(leaning PNM)
St. Ann’s East (2,776) (2010 turnout 60.38%)(leaning PNM)
Moruga / Tableland (2,947) (2010 turnout 77.25%)(leaning UNC)
* Denotes boundary changes and recalculated electoral data.
+ Denotes bye-election with revised electoral data.
The application of a Zoom Lens to Reduce the Outer Limit of Marginality
In order to ensure that there is the ability to focus on those constituencies that are the closest to
call in respect of their marginality, a decision was taken to systematically reduce the outer limit of
marginality from 3,372 to 2,300 in order to focus on those constituencies that would fall within this range.
Based on the recalculation of the results of the general election held on 24th May, 2010 in
relation to the new boundaries contained in the Report of the Elections and Boundaries Commission dated
29th January, 2014 and the bye-election data from 2013, the most marginal constituencies using the value
of M = >2,300 were calculated as follows :
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
Arima (364) (2010 turnout 62.74%) (leaning COP)
*Diego Martin North East (now 618 was 463) (2010 turnout 60.80%)(leaning PNM)
Point Fortin (655) (2010 turnout 68.63%)(leaning PNM)
Toco/Sangre Grande (700) (2010 turnout 66.19%)(leaning UNC)
+St. Joseph (now 780 was 3,057) (2010 turnout 72.12%)(2013 turnout 52.99%)(leaning PNM
since 2013 bye-election after being UNC in 2010 general election)
*Diego Martin Central (now 832 was 993) (2010 turnout 62.86%)(leaning PNM)
Lopinot / Bon Air West (1,003) (2010 turnout 71.82%)(leaning COP)
La Horquetta / Talparo (1,079) (2010 turnout 68.80%)(leaning UNC)
*San Fernando West (now 1,084 was 1,251) (2010 turnout 72.80%)(leaning COP)
*Diego Martin West (now 1,269 was 1,046) (2010 turnout 60.81%)(leaning PNM)
D’Abadie / O’Meara (1,343) (2010 turnout 69.65%)(leaning COP)
Tunapuna (2,297) (2010 turnout 74.08%)(leaning COP)
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These constituencies were polled on the basis of using, as far as possible, the strongest PNM and
PP polling divisions respectively in each case in order to seek balanced views across the board.
At the same time, by reducing the number of constituencies on a scientific basis using a zoom
lens-value of M (>2,300) which fell inside the actual value of M (>3,372), there was scientific certainty
that those constituencies selected were worthy of closer scrutiny given their closer proximity to a value of
0 which is the ultimate marginality figure.
In doing this, no judgement calls were made in respect of possible outcomes in the remaining six
constituencies that fell between 2,301 and 3,372 which constituted the cluster of constituencies that did
not fall within the zoom-lens approach adopted for this poll.
Chaguanas West
Owing to the sizeable swing in voting behaviour demonstrated in the Chaguanas West
constituency in the July 2013 bye-election, it was scientifically necessary to poll that constituency in
order to determine whether the bye-election voting behaviour in favour of a new political party (the
Independent Liberal Party) was holding or whether it had shifted.
In the circumstances, Chaguanas West was polled as the thirteenth constituency in Trinidad, not
on the basis of marginality, but on the basis of testing the sustained viability of the 2013 electoral result
which brought a new political party into the Parliament of Trinidad and Tobago by virtue of a very
significant swing in voting behaviour from UNC in 2010 to ILP in 2013 (UNC majority of 17,269 of first
over second in 2010 to ILP majority of 7,512 of first over second in 2013). This voting swing actually
traversed the spectrum of being a safe seat for the UNC to becoming a statistical safe seat for the ILP. The
magnitude of the swing actually saw it pass completely through the zone of marginality (0 to 3,372) and
emerge beyond that zone of marginality on the other side of it.
The polling divisions used for Chaguanas West were the ones where the ILP scored their largest
victories in the July 2013 bye-election.
Tobago
The two Tobago constituencies were polled on the basis of using the ten most marginal polling
divisions, as far as possible, in each constituency and the number of questionnaires being administered in
each of the Tobago constituencies was 250 for a total of 500. This led to the application of a margin of
error of +/– 5%.
Using the data from the 2013 Tobago House of Assembly elections the polling divisions to be
surveyed were chosen on the basis of the most marginal outcomes in the THA 2013 election as far as
possible.
Constituencies and Polling Divisions for Survey
The survey was conducted in the following constituencies and polling divisions using the
addresses for these polling divisions as contained in the official report on the general elections for 2010 in
Trinidad and the addresses for the THA 2013 elections in Tobago to determine actual geographical
locations :
POLLING DIVISION LOCATIONS FOR SURVEY
1. ARIMA
• 2035 – Arima Hindu Primary School, Temple Street, Arima
• 2093 – Santa Rosa Govt. Primary School, Shaddock Circle, Santa Rosa
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2. CHAGUANAS WEST
• 2765 – Munroe Road Govt. Primary School, School Lane, Munroe Road, Cunupia
• 2925 – Felicity Presbyterian School, Cacandee Road, Felicity
3. D’ABADIE/O’MEARA
• 1965 – Malabar Govt. Primary School, Pomegranate Ave., Phase 1, Malabar, Arima
• 2050 – Carapo RC School, LP # 109, O’Meara Road South, Carapo
4. DIEGO MARTIN CENTRAL
• 0065 – Maple Leaf International School, Alyce Heights Drive, Alyce Glen, Petit Valley
• 0161 – Petit Valley Girls RC School, Morne Coco Road, Petit Valley
5. DIEGO MARTIN NORTH-EAST
• 0132 – Patna River Estate Govt. Primary School, North Post Road, Patna Village
• 0207 – La Seiva RC School, 85 Saddle Road, Maraval
6. DIEGO MARTIN WEST
• 0050 – St. Anthony’s College, Morne Coco Road, Westmoorings
• 0115 – Diego Martin Boys RC School, LP # 51, Church Street, Diego Martin
7. LA HORQUETTA – TALPARO
• 2059 – La Horquetta South Govt. Primary School, LP. # 54, Gladiolus Crescent, La
Horquetta
• 2680 – Las Lomas # 2 Govt. School, Caroni South Bank Road, Las Lomas # 2
8. LOPINOT – BON AIR WEST
• 1780 – Five Rivers Secondary School, Range Road, Five Rivers, Arouca
• 1855 – St. Finbar’s Girls’ RC School, Convent Street, Arouca
9. POINT FORTIN
• 4696 – Guapo Govt. Primary School, Southern Main Road, Guapo
• 4810 – Granville RC School, Syfoo Trace, Granville
10. SAN FERNANDO WEST
• 3879 – San Fernando Central Secondary School, Todd Street, San Fernando
• 4151 – San Fernando Girls’ Anglican School, Pouchet Street off Rushworth Street, San
Fernando
11. ST. JOSEPH
• 1041 – Mt. Hope Secondary School, Maingot Street, Mt. Hope
• 1470 – Aranguez Hindu School, Chootoo Street, Aranguez
12. TOCO – SANGRE GRANDE
• 2145 – Toco Secondary School, Galera Road, Toco
• 2175 – North Oropouche RC School, Toco Road, Vega de Oropouche
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13. TUNAPUNA
• 1625 – St. Benedict’s RC School, LP. # 34, St. John’s Road, St. Augustine
• 1755 – El Dorado East Secondary School, Karamath Street, El Dorado
14.
•
•
•
•
•
TOBAGO EAST
4925 – Hope Anglican Primary School, School Road, Hope Village
4940 – Mason Hall Secondary School, Sandy River, Mason Hall
5000 – Charlotteville Community Centre, Back Street, Charlotteville
5035 – Ebenezer Methodist Primary School, LP#561, Windward Road, Betsey’s Hope
5040 – St. Barnabas Anglican Primary School, Union Street, Roxborough
15.
•
•
•
•
•
TOBAGO WEST
4847 - Bon Accord Government Primary School, Milford Road, Bon Accord
4855 – Carnbee/Mt. Pleasant Community Centre, 57-59 Buccoo Road, Mt. Pleasant
4858 – St. Patrick’s Anglican Primary School, St. Patrick’s Church Road
4866 – Bethel Community Centre, Bethel/Hopeton Road, Bethel
4970 – Golden Lane Government Primary School, Cottage Trace, Golden Lane
SURVEY REPORT – TRINIDAD
The breakdown of the survey is as follows:
1. Gender
Male – 47.1%
Female – 52.9%
2. Ethnicity
Afro – 27.9%
Indo – 42.8%
Mixed - 26.9%
Chinese – 0.1%
Caucasian – 0.2%
Not stated – 2.1%
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3. Age Group
18-29 – 16.9%
30-39 – 20.0% 40-49 – 25.3%
70 and over – 6.7%
50-59 – 20.8%
60-69 – 9.6%
Not stated – 0.7%
4. Employment status
Employed – 38.4%
Unemployed – 11.3%
Retired / pensioner – 14.5%
Self-employed – 14.9%
Professional – 3.5%
Temporary worker – 2.3%
Housewife – 10.7%
Student – 4.5%
Other – 0.1%
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5. Religion
Roman Catholic – 26.4%
Hindu - 26.6%
Pentecostal – 12.0%
Anglican – 10.4%
Presbyterian – 6.1%
Muslim – 5.6%
7th Day Adventist – 4.2%
Methodist – 1.6%
Baptist – 1.4%
Other – 4.4%
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6. Are you satisfied with the performance of the People’s Partnership Administration over
the last 5 years?
Yes – 44.5%
No – 42.8%
Not sure – 11.3%
Don’t know - 1.3%
Not stated – 0.1%
This question was designed to test the satisfaction levels of the respondents with the performance
of the People’s Partnership Government over the last five years.
7. Are you satisfied with the performance of the PNM Opposition over the last 5 years?
Yes – 23.6% No – 51.9%
Not stated – 0.1%
Don’t know - 16.0%
Not sure – 8.4%
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This question was designed to test the satisfaction levels of the respondents with the performance
of the People’s National Movement Opposition over the last five years.
8. Do you believe that the emails read by Dr. Rowley in Parliament against the Prime
Minister and members of her Government were real or fake?
Real – 27.1%
Fake – 41.3%
Not sure – 25.7%
Don’t know – 6.0%
This question was designed to test the impressions of respondents about the email controversy.
9. Do you believe that there is an alliance between Keith Rowley and Jack Warner ?
Yes – 20.2%
Not stated – 0.1%
No – 36.6%
Don’t know – 28.7% Not sure – 14.4%
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This question was designed to test the view of respondents about allegations of a political
relationship between Keith Rowley and Jack Warner.
10. Do you believe that there is an alliance between the Third Force and the People’s
Partnership?
Yes – 27.9% No – 23.0%
Don’t know – 33.8%
Not sure – 15.2%
This question was designed to test the view of respondents about allegations of a political
relationship between the Third Force (that had been formed just prior to the opinion poll going
into the field and collapsed after the data had been collected) and the people’s Partnership.
11. Do you believe that it is okay for the PNM to have no opposition in the THA since 2013?
Yes – 10.0% No – 55.0%
Don’t know – 24.0%
Not sure – 11.0%
Not stated – 0.1%
This question was designed to test the view of respondents about the absence of an opposition in
the Tobago House of Assembly.
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12. Do you believe that there should be a coalition approach to government or a single
party approach to government?
Coalition – 26.3%
Single party – 46.6% Not sure – 23.8%
Don’t know – 3.1%
Not stated – 0.2%
This question was designed to test the opinions of respondents about their preferences for
coalition government or single party government.
13. Do you believe that there is an alliance between the Citizens Intervention of David
Abdulah and Ramesh Lawrence Maharaj and the PNM ?
Yes – 12.5% No – 26.4%
Not stated – 0.1%
Not sure – 35.9%
Don’t know – 25.0%
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This question was designed to test the view of respondents about allegations of a political
relationship between the Citizens’ Intervention of David Abdullah and Ramesh Lawrence
Maharaj, on the one hand, and the PNM, on the other.
14. In the debate between Keith Rowley and Kamla Persad-Bissessar on July 30th, whom do
you think will perform better ?
Keith Rowley – 32.9%
Kamla Persad-Bissessar – 45.8% Not sure – 14.5%
Don’t know – 6.6%
Not stated – 0.1%
This question was designed to test the perceptions of respondents on who they think will perform
better in a debate that was planned for July 30th at the time of going into the field.
15. If a general election were to be held tomorrow, who would you like to see as the Prime
Minister?
Kamla Persad-Bissessar – 45.7%
Keith Rowley – 32.9%
Jack Warner – 4.0%
Not sure – 11.1%
Patrick Manning – 0.3%
Other/Not stated – 3.1%
Don’t know – 2.9%
15
This question was designed to test the preferences of respondents on who they would like to see
as Prime Minister after the September 7th general election.
16.
for?
If a general election were to be held tomorrow, which group or party would you vote
PNM – 35.1%
PP – 45.8%
Not sure – 8.0%
Don’t know – 4.8%
ILP – 3.7%
Third Force – 1.0%
Other/Not stated – 1.6%
This question was designed to test the preferences of respondents with their voting intentions for the
September 7th general election.
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SURVEY REPORT – TOBAGO
The breakdown of the survey for Tobago is as follows :
1. Gender
Male – 52.0%
Female – 48.0%
2. Ethnicity
Afro – 79.3%
Indo – 3.8%
Mixed - 12.7%
Chinese – 0.2%
Caucasian – 0.4%
Not stated – 3.6%
3. Age Group
18-29 – 30.7% 30-39 – 18.5% 40-49 – 23.3% 50-59 – 14.7%
70 and over – 4.6%
Not stated – 1.0%
60-69 – 7.2%
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4. Employment status
Employed – 41.0%
Retired / pensioner – 9.8%
Unemployed – 7.2%
Self-employed – 14.9%
Professional – 5.4%
Temporary worker – 6.6%
Housewife – 4.0%
Student – 8.6%
Other – 1.4%
Not stated – 1.0%
5. Religion
Roman Catholic – 5.6%
Hindu - 0.2%
Pentecostal – 18.9%
Anglican – 13.9%
Presbyterian – 0.2%
Muslim – 0.2%
7th Day Adventist – 13.5%
Methodist – 13.7%
Baptist – 8.4%
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Other Christian combined – 25.4%
6. Are you satisfied with the performance of the People’s Partnership Administration over
the last 5 years?
Yes – 31.1%
No – 56.6%
Not sure – 11.0%
Don’t know - 1.0%
Not stated – 0.2%
This question was designed to test the satisfaction levels of the respondents with the performance
of the People’s Partnership Government over the last five years.
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7. Are you satisfied with the performance of the PNM Opposition over the last 5 years?
Yes – 49.0% No – 39.2%
Don’t know - 2.8%
Not sure – 8.6%
Not stated – 0.4%
This question was designed to test the satisfaction levels of the respondents with the performance
of the People’s National Movement Opposition over the last five years.
8. Do you believe that the emails read by Dr. Rowley in Parliament against the Prime
Minister and members of her Government were real or fake ?
Real – 19.9%
Fake – 24.9%
Not sure – 44.6%
Don’t know – 10.2%
Not stated – 0.4%
This question was designed to test the impressions of respondents about the email controversy.
9. Do you believe that there is an alliance between Keith Rowley and Jack Warner ?
20
Yes – 9.6%
No – 42.4%
Don’t know – 31.9% Not sure – 15.7%
Not stated – 0.4%
This question was designed to test the view of respondents about allegations of a political
relationship between Keith Rowley and Jack Warner.
10. Do you believe that there is an alliance between the Third Force and the People’s
Partnership?
Yes – 22.3% No – 21.1%
Don’t know – 42.0%
Not sure – 14.1%
Not stated – 0.6%
This question was designed to test the view of respondents about allegations of a political
relationship between the Third Force (that had been formed just prior to the opinion poll going
into the field and collapsed after the data had been collected) and the People’s Partnership.
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11. Do you believe that it is okay for the PNM to have no opposition in the THA since 2013?
Yes – 20.1% No – 70.9%
Don’t know – 5.8% Not sure – 2.4%
Not stated – 0.8%
This question was designed to test the view of respondents about the absence of an opposition in
the Tobago House of Assembly.
12. Do you believe that there should be a coalition approach to government or a single
party approach to government?
Coalition – 11.8%
Single party – 76.5% Not sure – 8.8%
Don’t know – 2.0%
Not stated – 0.8%
This question was designed to test the opinions of respondents about their preferences for
coalition government or single party government.
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13. Do you believe that there is an alliance between the Citizens Intervention of David
Abdulah and Ramesh Lawrence Maharaj and the PNM ?
Yes – 15.5%
1.6%
No – 23.3%
Not sure – 43.4%
Don’t know – 16.3% Not stated –
This question was designed to test the view of respondents about allegations of a political
relationship between the Citizens’ Intervention of David Abdullah and Ramesh Lawrence
Maharaj, on the one hand, and the PNM, on the other.
14. In the debate between Keith Rowley and Kamla Persad-Bissessar on July 30th, whom do
you think will perform better?
Keith Rowley – 36.5%
Kamla Persad-Bissessar – 16.9% Not sure – 43.4%
Don’t know – 16.3%
Not stated – 3.2%
This question was designed to test the perceptions of respondents on who they think will perform
better in a debate that was planned for July 30th at the time of going into the field.
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15. If a general election were to be held tomorrow, who would you like to see as the Prime
Minister?
Kamla Persad-Bissessar – 15.3%
Keith Rowley – 47.4%
Jack Warner – 2.4%
Not sure – 20.7%
Christlyn Moore – 2.2%
Other/Not stated – 7.0%
Don’t know – 5.0%
This question was designed to test the preferences of respondents on who they would like to see
as Prime Minister after the September 7th general election.
16.
for?
If a general election were to be held tomorrow, which group or party would you vote
PNM – 45.8%
PP – 15.2%
Watson Duke – 1.4% Third Force – 0.4%
Other/Not stated – 5.5%
Tobago Forwards – 5.4%
Not sure – 19.9%
ILP – 2.2%
Don’t know – 4.2%
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This question was designed to test the preferences of respondents with their voting intentions for
the September 7th general election.
SUMMARY ANALYSIS
The opinion poll clearly shows a tale of two different islands. The People’s Partnership is
leading the PNM in Trinidad by a margin of 10.7% (45.8% to 35.1%), while in Tobago the PNM
is leading the People’s Partnership by a margin of 30.6% (45.8% to 15.2%).
In respect of preferences for the post of Prime Minister, in Trinidad Mrs. Kamla PersadBissessar leads Dr. Keith Rowley by 12.9% (45.8% to 32.9%), while in Tobago Dr. Rowley
leads Mrs. Persad-Bissessar by 32.1% (47.4% to 15.3%).
The margin of undecided respondents (Not sure/Don’t know/Not stated) is significantly higher
in Tobago than it is in Trinidad in both categories for choice of group/party and choice of Prime
Minister.
The comparative data shows that for the choice of group/party in Tobago the undecided figure
stands at 29.6%, while in Trinidad it stands at 14.4%.
In respect of the choice of Prime Minister in Tobago the undecided figure stands at 32.7%,
while in Trinidad it stands at 17.1%.
The decline of the TOP in Tobago has apparently created a void among those in opposition to
the PNM which has resulted in a higher degree of uncertainty about whom to support which has
placed the PNM in a commanding lead on the island. The fierce contest between the People’s
Partnership and the PNM in Trinidad has hardened the lines of the electoral battle with the
undecided element being much smaller statistically than in Tobago.
The Third Force, which emerged just at the time when this poll went into the field, did not
register any impact statistically in either island, while the only other political grouping that has
measured any statistical impact is the Tobago Forwards (5.4%) in Tobago separate and apart
from the People’s Partnership ally, the TOP (15.2%).
CAPSU, UWI
28th July, 2015
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