(FRQRPLF6XUYH\RI/DWLQ$PHULFDDQGWKH&DULEEHDQƒ
%$5%$'26
*HQHUDOWUHQGV
7KH%DUEDGRVHFRQRP\FRQWLQXHVWREHKLJKO\VXVFHSWLEOHWRWKHH[WHUQDOHQYLURQPHQW$VDUHVXOWRISRRU
HFRQRPLF SHUIRUPDQFH LQ(XURSHLQ DGGLWLRQWR PRGHUDWH HFRQRPLF JURZWK LQ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV *'3
JURZWK UHPDLQHG PRVWO\ IODW DW LQ DQG FRQWUDFWHG VOLJKWO\ E\ E\ WKH HQG RI WKH ILUVW
TXDUWHU RI 7KLV RYHUDOO WUHQG EHDUV RXW WKH FRQWLQXHG VOXJJLVKQHVV RI WKH JOREDO HFRQRP\ VLQFH
DV ZHOO DV WKH LPSDFW RI WKH VRYHUHLJQ GHEW FULVLV LQ (XURSH LQ SDUWLFXODU RYHU WKH SDVW \HDU DV
%DUEDGRVUHOLHVKHDYLO\RQ(XURSHDQVRXUFHPDUNHWVIRULWVWRXULVPVHFWRUWKHFRXQWU\¶VPDLQHFRQRPLF
GULYHU2YHUDOOORQJVWD\WRXULVWDUULYDOVGHFOLQHGE\LQ$SULOFRPSDUHGZLWK$SULOZLWK
PRVWVRXUFHPDUNHWVVKRZLQJVOLJKWWRVLJQLILFDQWUHGXFWLRQV
7KLVVORZJURZWKLQWXUQLPSDFWHGWKHILVFDOGHILFLWZKLFKLQFUHDVHGE\SHUFHQWDJHSRLQWVWR
RI*'3EHWZHHQILVFDO\HDUVDQGRQDFFRXQWRIDIDOOLQWD[UHYHQXHV
$W WKH VDPH WLPH JRYHUQPHQW H[SHQGLWXUH LQFUHDVHG E\ ODUJHO\ GXH WR D MXPS LQ LQWHUHVW
SD\PHQWV RQ GRPHVWLF ERUURZLQJV DQG D DQG LQFUHDVHLQ JUDQW SD\PHQWV WR LQGLYLGXDOV DQG
LQVWLWXWLRQVUHVSHFWLYHO\7KHGHWHULRUDWLQJILVFDOVLWXDWLRQUHVXOWHGLQDQLQFUHDVHLQJURVVSXEOLFVHFWRU
GHEW IURP WR RI *'3 EHWZHHQ 0DUFK DQG 0DUFK ZLWK WKH ODUJHU VKDUH RI
JRYHUQPHQWERUURZLQJVVRXUFHGGRPHVWLFDOO\
1RWZLWKVWDQGLQJ D VOLJKW PRGHUDWLRQ LQ LPSRUWV ZKHUH IXHO DQG IRRG SULFHV IHOO VOLJKWO\ WKH
FXUUHQW DFFRXQW VOLSSHG IURP D VXUSOXV LQ WR D GHILFLW LQ GXH WR WKH VWURQJ FRQWUDFWLRQ RI
WRXULVP UHFHLSWV 'DWD IURP WKH ILUVW TXDUWHU RI DUH VXJJHVWLYH RI D FRQWLQXDWLRQ RI WKLV WUHQG DV
LPSRUWVLQFUHDVHGPRGHVWO\E\FRPSDUHGZLWKDIDOOLQWKHVDPHSHULRGRIWKHSUHYLRXV\HDU
6OXJJLVK GRPHVWLF HFRQRPLF FRQGLWLRQV DOVR UHVXOWHG LQ D VORZLQJ RI GRPHVWLF LQIODWLRQ IURP
WR\HDURQ\HDUWR0DUFKDQGDVOLJKWLQFUHDVHLQWKHXQHPSOR\PHQWUDWHDWWKHHQGRI
WR FRPSDUHG ZLWK DW WKH HQG RI 7KH LQFUHDVH LQ XQHPSOR\PHQW ZDV GULYHQ
PDLQO\E\OD\RIIVLQWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQVHFWRUZKLFKUHGXFHGLWVODERXUIRUFHE\LQ
8QGHUO\LQJ WKHVH HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQWV ZDV WKH SROLWLFDO XQFHUWDLQW\ UHODWHG WR WKH )HEUXDU\
SDUOLDPHQWDU\ HOHFWLRQV ZKLFK WKH LQFXPEHQW DGPLQLVWUDWLRQ ZRQ E\ D VOLJKW PDUJLQ 7KH QHZ
DGPLQLVWUDWLRQZLOOFRQWLQXHWRIDFHILVFDOVWUXFWXUDODQGLQVWLWXWLRQDOFKDOOHQJHVZKLFKOLPLWWKHJURZWK
SURVSHFWVRIWKH%DUEDGRVHFRQRP\RYHUWKHVKRUWWRPHGLXPWHUP5HDOJURZWKLVSURMHFWHGWREH
IRU
(FRQRPLFSROLF\
D
)LVFDOSROLF\
6LQFH %DUEDGRV KDV DGRSWHG D FRQWUDFWLRQDU\ ILVFDO VWDQFH WKURXJK LWV ILYH\HDU 0HGLXP
7HUP)LVFDO6WUDWHJ\DVDPHDQVRIUHVSRQGLQJWRWKHJOREDOFULVLV7KLVVWUDWHJ\WDUJHWVD
UHGXFWLRQLQILVFDOH[SHQGLWXUHDQLQFUHDVHLQJRYHUQPHQWUHYHQXHDQGVWULQJHQWGHEWPDQDJHPHQWDVLWV
SULQFLSDOREMHFWLYHV7KHSRVLWLYHUHVXOWVDFKLHYHGXQGHUWKLVVWUDWHJ\ LQWKHILVFDO\HDUZHUH
(FRQRPLF&RPPLVVLRQIRU/DWLQ$PHULFDDQGWKH&DULEEHDQ(&/$&
VLJQLILFDQWO\UHYHUVHGLQDVWKHILVFDOGHILFLWLQFUHDVHGRQFHDJDLQIURPWRRI*'3
7KHSULPDU\EDODQFHKRZHYHUUHPDLQHGYLUWXDOO\XQFKDQJHGDWRI*'3RYHUWKHUHYLHZSHULRG
,QDQHIIRUWWRVWLPXODWHWKHHFRQRP\SHUVRQDOLQFRPHWD[WKUHVKROGVZHUHLQFUHDVHGZKLOHWKH
HIIHFWLYH WD[ UDWH ZDV UHGXFHG IURP WR :KLOH WKHVH HIIRUWV GLG QRW KHOS WR MXPSVWDUW WKH
HFRQRP\WKH\UHVXOWHGLQDIDOOLQGLUHFWWD[UHYHQXH7KLVZDVFRPSRXQGHGE\RYHUDOOGRPHVWLF
HFRQRPLFVOXJJLVKQHVVDVUHIOHFWHGLQDUHGXFWLRQLQLQGLUHFWWD[HVDQGDDQGIDOOLQH[FLVH
GXWLHVDQG9$7UHVSHFWLYHO\$WWKHVDPHWLPHJRYHUQPHQWH[SHQGLWXUHURVHE\RYHUWKHSUHYLRXV
ILVFDO \HDU GULYHQ E\ LQFUHDVHG LQWHUHVW SD\PHQWV DORQJ ZLWK LQFUHDVHVLQ JUDQWV7KHVH WUHQGV
SXVKHGJURVVSXEOLFGHEWXSIURPRI*'3WRRI*'3RYHUWKHVDPHSHULRG
E
0RQHWDU\DQGH[FKDQJHUDWHSROLF\
'XULQJ WKH FHQWUDO EDQN FRQWLQXHG LWV PRQHWDU\ SROLF\ VWDQFH RI VXSSRUWLQJ WKH IL[HG
H[FKDQJHUDWHDW%'6 86E\PDLQWDLQLQJDGHTXDWHLQWHUQDWLRQDOUHVHUYHV,QDQHIIRUWWRVWLPXODWH
GRPHVWLF GHPDQG LQWHUHVW UDWHV KDYH DOVR UHPDLQHG ORZ DQG VWDEOH ZLWK WKH WUHDVXU\ ELOO UDWH UDQJLQJ
IURPWREHWZHHQDQGDQGKROGLQJDWDVDW0DUFK7KLVDFFRPPRGDWLYH
SROLF\VWDQFHKDVEHFRPHVOLJKWO\PRUHUHVWULFWLYHGXHWRWKHGHFOLQLQJUDWHRILQIODWLRQZKLFKIHOOIURP
WR GXULQJ ZLWK D VOLJKW GHFUHDVH WR E\ 0DUFK WKDW LQ WXUQ SXVKHG XS UHDO
LQWHUHVWUDWHV7KLVVKDUSGHFOLQHLQSULFHVUHIOHFWVWKHPRGHUDWLRQRILQWHUQDWLRQDOIRRGDQGIXHOSULFHVLQ
WKHSDVW\HDULQIODWLRQLVH[SHFWHGWRUHPDLQORZLQDVWKHJOREDOHFRQRP\RYHUFRPHVWKHLPSDFWRI
UHFHQW GURXJKW FRQGLWLRQV LQ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV DQG HQHUJ\ SULFH LQIODWLRQ VORZV &UHGLW WR WKH SULYDWH
VHFWRUUHERXQGHGLQWKHILUVWTXDUWHURIJURZLQJE\FRPSDUHGZLWKD LQFUHDVHLQWKH
ILUVWTXDUWHURI7KLVZDVDUHVXOWRIDQLQFUHDVHLQEXVLQHVVSURIHVVLRQDODQGFRQVWUXFWLRQDFWLYLW\
UHODWHGWRPDMRUSURMHFWVLQWKHWRXULVPVHFWRUDVZHOODVSXEOLFVHFWRUSURMHFWV$WWKHVDPHWLPHUHGXFHG
HFRQRPLFDFWLYLW\KDVDOVRLPSDFWHGGHSRVLWVDQGFRQVXPHUORDQUHSD\PHQWV'HSRVLWVIRULQVWDQFHIHOO
E\GXULQJWKHILUVWTXDUWHURIZKLOHWKHQRQSHUIRUPLQJORDQUDWLRVWRRGDWDWWKHHQGRI
F
2WKHUSROLFLHV
:LWK UHVSHFW WR RWKHU SROLFLHV IRU IXUWKHU VWLPXODWLRQ RI WKH HFRQRP\ D SURWUDFWHG SHULRG RI ORZ
JURZWKRYHUWKHSDVWIRXU\HDUVDORQJZLWKVORZUHFRYHU\LQWKHJOREDOHFRQRP\FRQWLQXHWROLPLWWKHVFRSH
IRULPSOHPHQWLQJDQHFRQRPLFVWLPXOXVSDFNDJHRYHUWKHVKRUWWRPHGLXPWHUP,WLVWKLVVLWXDWLRQZKLFK
SURPSWHGWKHJRYHUQPHQWWRGLVSHQVHZLWKLWVKROGLQJVRI%DUEDGRV1DWLRQDO%DQNVKDUHVLQUHVXOWLQJ
LQDUHGXFWLRQRIWKHILVFDOGHILFLW,QWHUPVRISXEOLFVHFWRULQYHVWPHQWVHIIRUWVWRIXUWKHUGHYHORSWKH
OX[XU\VHJPHQWRIWKHWRXULVPVHFWRUDVZHOOWRHQULFKWKHYLVLWRUH[SHULHQFHKDYHEHHQRQJRLQJDQGQHZHU
WRXULVP QLFKHV VXFK DV HFRWRXULVP DQG VSRUWV DQG FXOWXUH WRXULVP KDYH EHHQ WDUJHWHG IRU IXUWKHU IXWXUH
GHYHORSPHQW (QKDQFHG PDUNHWLQJ RI WKH LQWHUQDWLRQDO ILQDQFH DQG EXVLQHVV VHFWRU VWUHQJWKHQLQJ RI WKH
DJURSURFHVVLQJ DQG DOWHUQDWLYH HQHUJ\ VHFWRUV DQG WKH LPSURYHPHQW RI RYHUDOO FRPSHWLWLYHQHVV WKURXJK
LQFUHDVHGSXEOLFVHFWRUHIILFLHQF\KDYHDOVREHHQLGHQWLILHGDVDUHDVIRUIXWXUHLQYHVWPHQW
:LWK D QHZO\ UHFHLYHG PDQGDWH IURP WKH HOHFWRUDWH WKH %DUEDGRV JRYHUQPHQW PD\ SHUFHLYH D
IUHHUKDQGWRSXUVXHWKHVHVWUDWHJLHVLQRUGHUWRUHWXUQWKHHFRQRP\WRJURZWK6XFFHVVIXOLPSOHPHQWDWLRQ
RIVXFKSROLFLHVZRXOGKRZHYHUGHSHQGRQWKHH[WHQWWRZKLFKFRQWLQXHGJRRGZLOOFRXOGEHVHFXUHGIURP
VRFLDO SDUWQHUV 7KLV LV HVSHFLDOO\ LPSRUWDQW JLYHQ WKDW ERWK ODERXU DQG WKH SULYDWH VHFWRU KDYH VKRZQ
VRPH ZHDULQHVV LQ WKH UHFHQW SDVW 6WLOO WKH VWURQJ VRFLDO FRPSDFW DV ZHOO DV WKH SHUFHSWLRQ RI ORZ
FRUUXSWLRQ D KLJKO\ HGXFDWHG ZRUNIRUFH DQG VWDEOH SXEOLF LQVWLWXWLRQV VKRXOG VHUYH WKH FRXQWU\ ZHOO LQ
DGYDQFLQJLWVHFRQRPLFUHFRYHU\SURVSHFWVLQWRWKHIXWXUH
(FRQRPLF6XUYH\RI/DWLQ$PHULFDDQGWKH&DULEEHDQƒ
7KHPDLQYDULDEOHV
D
7KHH[WHUQDOVHFWRU
%HFDXVHWKH%DUEDGLDQHFRQRP\LVWRXULVPEDVHGVHUYLFHVFRPSULVHWKHODUJHVWVKDUHRIH[SRUWV
$IWHUDVOLJKWO\SRVLWLYHSHUIRUPDQFHLQWKHVHFWRUFRQWUDFWHGDJDLQLQDQGFRQWLQXHGWKLVWUHQG
LQWR WKH ILUVW TXDUWHU RI 7KH IDOO LQ VWD\RYHU DUULYDOV GXULQJ WKH SHULRG ZDV PDLQO\ GXH WR WKH
HXUR]RQHFULVLVDVZHOODVWKHSDVVDJHRI+XUULFDQH6DQG\LQWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV5HGXFHGDLUOLIWRXWRIWKH
8QLWHG6WDWHVDVZHOODVZLWKLQWKH&DULEEHDQUHJLRQDOVRFRQWULEXWHGWRWKHIDOOLQVWD\RYHUDUULYDOV,Q
WHUPVRIPDUNHWVDSDUWIURP*HUPDQ\ZKLFKJUHZE\DVRI$SULO\HDURQ\HDUDOORWKHUWRXULVP
VRXUFHVVHQWIHZHUYLVLWRUVWR%DUEDGRVGXULQJWKHSHULRG7KHGHFOLQHUDQJHGIURPIRU&DQDGDWR
DQG IRU WKH 8QLWHG .LQJGRP DQG WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV UHVSHFWLYHO\ 1RWDEO\ WKH IDOORII LQ
DUULYDOV IURP RWKHU &DULEEHDQ GHVWLQDWLRQV ZDV DOVR VLJQLILFDQW DPRXQWLQJ WR IRU 7ULQLGDG DQG
7REDJRDQGIRURWKHU&$5,&20FRXQWULHV
:LWK UHVSHFW WR WUDGH LQ JRRGV H[SRUWV ZHUH ERRVWHG E\ RQ DFFRXQW RI D LQFUHDVH IRU
UXP 6SHQGLQJ RQ LPSRUWV KRZHYHU GHFOLQHG GXH WR ORZHU HQHUJ\ SULFHV DV ZHOO DV ORZHU LPSRUWV RI
FRQVWUXFWLRQPDWHULDOVDQGFDSLWDOJRRGV,QVSLWHRIWKLVWKHUHZDVDGHWHULRUDWLRQRIWKHFXUUHQWDFFRXQW
GHILFLWIURPLWVVXUSOXVSRVLWLRQLQWKHILUVWTXDUWHURIWRDGHILFLWE\WKHILUVWTXDUWHURIDVWKH
SRRUSHUIRUPDQFHRIWKHWRXULVPVHFWRUWRRNHIIHFW7KHFDSLWDODFFRXQWDOVRUHFRUGHGDGHFOLQHEHWZHHQ
WKHILUVWTXDUWHURIDQGRQFHDJDLQUHIOHFWLQJWKHVKDUSGURSLQWRXULVPFDSLWDOIORZVGXULQJWKH
SHULRG7KHQHWHIIHFWRIDOORIWKHDERYHZDVDVPDOOGHFOLQHLQLQWHUQDWLRQDOUHVHUYHVIURP86
PLOOLRQDWWKHHQGRIUHSUHVHQWLQJZHHNVRILPSRUWFRYHUWR86PLOOLRQLQ0DUFK
SURYLGLQJMXVWXQGHUILYHPRQWKVRILPSRUWFRYHU
E
(FRQRPLFJURZWK
*LYHQWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIWKHWRXULVPVHFWRULWLVQRWVXUSULVLQJWKDWWKHHFRQRP\UHPDLQHGIODWLQ
6OXJJLVKSHUIRUPDQFHLQPDQXIDFWXULQJFRQVWUXFWLRQDQGDJULFXOWXUHDOVRFRQWULEXWHGWRWKLVSRRU
UHVXOW0DQXIDFWXULQJIRULQVWDQFHIHOOE\GXULQJWKHUHYLHZSHULRGDVGRPHVWLFGHPDQGIRUWREDFFR
FKHPLFDOVDQGEHYHUDJHVZHDNHQHG,QWKHFDVHRIDJULFXOWXUHVXJDUSURGXFWLRQIHOOVLJQLILFDQWO\E\
DV SRRU \LHOGV UHGXFHG FDQHWRVXJDU FRQYHUVLRQ 1RQVXJDU DJULFXOWXUH KRZHYHU IHOO RQO\ PDUJLQDOO\
DOWKRXJK WKHUH ZDV D VOLJKW LQFUHDVH LQ ILVK SURGXFWLRQ EHWZHHQ DQG WKH ILUVW TXDUWHU RI %DUEDGRVDOVRFRQWLQXHGWRVXIIHUGHFOLQHVLQLWVLQWHUQDWLRQDOEXVLQHVVDQGILQDQFLDOVHUYLFHVVHFWRUZLWK
DGURSLQQHZUHJLVWUDWLRQVEHWZHHQ)HEUXDU\DQG&RQVWUXFWLRQRXWSXWZKLFKLVFORVHO\
OLQNHGWRFDSLWDOLQYHVWPHQWLQWKHWRXULVPVHFWRUDOVRIHOOE\LQDQGZDVUHIOHFWHGLQD
GHFOLQHLQEXLOGLQJPDWHULDOVLPSRUWVUHODWLYHWRWKHSUHYLRXV\HDU)XUWKHUWKHJRYHUQPHQWFRPSOHWHGD
QXPEHURIPDMRUEXLOGLQJSURMHFWVLQDQGWKHDGRSWLRQRIDOLPLWHGFDSLWDOLQYHVWPHQWSURJUDPPH
XQGHULWVILVFDOFRQVROLGDWLRQSURJUDPPHIXUWKHUUHGXFHGFDSLWDOVSHQGLQJE\ZKLFKDOVRUHGXFHG
FRQVWUXFWLRQDFWLYLW\,QWHUPVRIRYHUDOOGHPDQGZHDNLQYHVWRUFRQILGHQFHUHIOHFWHGLQORZFUHGLWXSWDNH
FRQWLQXHGIURPLQWR
F
3ULFHVZDJHVDQGHPSOR\PHQW
6OXJJLVK HFRQRPLF FRQGLWLRQV UHVXOWHG LQ D PDUJLQDO LQFUHDVH LQ XQHPSOR\PHQW DV WKH
FRQVWUXFWLRQVHFWRUFRQWLQXHGWRFXWMREV7KLVZDVLQVSLWHRIVWURQJJRYHUQPHQWDQGSULYDWHVHFWRUHIIRUWV
WRSUHYHQWMREORVVLQWKHFRQWH[WRIDZDJHIUHH]HQHJRWLDWHGDWWKHRQVHWRIWKHJOREDOHFRQRPLFFULVLV
(FRQRPLF&RPPLVVLRQIRU/DWLQ$PHULFDDQGWKH&DULEEHDQ(&/$&
5HFHQWHYLGHQFHVXJJHVWVWKDWWKHVHVRFLDOSDUWQHUVDUHILQGLQJLWLQFUHDVLQJO\GLIILFXOWWRFXUWDLOMREORVV
DVWKHVOXJJLVKQHVVLQWKH%DUEDGRVHFRQRP\HQGXUHV
,QIODWLRQ PRGHUDWHG VLJQLILFDQWO\ EHWZHHQ DQG DV IXHO IRRG KRXVLQJ DQG WUDQVSRUW
SULFHVIHOO7KHDQQXDOLQIODWLRQUDWHVWRRGDWDWWKHHQGRIGRZQIURPDWWKHVDPHWLPH
LQ7KHUHZDVDIXUWKHUGDPSHQLQJRIWKHLQIODWLRQUDWHGXULQJWKHILUVWTXDUWHURIDVWKHODJJHG
HIIHFWVRILQWHUQDWLRQDOIRRGDQGIXHOSULFHVFRQWLQXHGWREHIHOWLQWKHHDUO\SDUWRI
2YHUDOOWUHQGVIRUWKH%DUEDGRVHFRQRP\LQGLFDWHFRQWLQXHGHFRQRPLFVWDJQDWLRQWKURXJK
DQG LQWR WKH ILUVW TXDUWHU RI 7KH FRXQWU\ QRZ IDFHV WKH GLIILFXOW WDVN RI LPSOHPHQWLQJ QHFHVVDU\
VWUDWHJLHVWRUHVWDUWJURZWK+RZHYHUWKHVHVWUDWHJLHVDUHODUJHO\FRQWLQJHQWRQDQLPSURYHGHFRQRPLF
SHUIRUPDQFHRI%DUEDGRV¶SULQFLSDOWUDGLQJSDUWQHUV
(FRQRPLF6XUYH\RI/DWLQ$PHULFDDQGWKH&DULEEHDQƒ
7DEOH
%$5%$'260$,1(&2120,&,1',&$7256
2004
Gross domestic product
Per capita gross domestic product
Gross domestic product, by sector
Agriculture, livestock, hunting, forestry and fishing
Mining and quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas and water
Construction
Wholesale and retail commerce,
restaurants and hotels
Transport, storage and communications
Community, social and personal services
Balance of payments
Current account balance
Goods balance
Exports, f.o.b.
Imports, f.o.b.
Services trade balance
Income balance
Net current transfers
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012 a/
Annual growth rates b/
1.4
4.0
1.2
3.8
5.7
5.5
1.7
1.5
0.3
0.1
-4.1
-4.3
0.2
0.0
0.6
0.4
0.2
…
-7.3
9.5
2.1
1.8
2.8
8.0
8.7
2.1
-0.5
14.0
-5.7
-3.0
-0.6
9.5
-0.4
2.3
-6.2
-1.1
1.2
0.0
0.0
-7.7
-2.3
-0.2
-5.2
2.8
-36.9
-12.2
0.7
-18.2
-6.1
9.4
-4.3
2.1
-9.5
-6.3
-13.8
-5.3
-1.6
7.5
…
…
…
…
…
-2.3
5.1
5.3
1.1
4.8
4.3
11.1
5.9
4.7
-1.1
6.0
4.7
-0.3
3.0
2.5
-4.3
-2.8
-0.3
2.8
0.2
1.0
0.0
0.7
2.0
…
…
…
Millions of dollars
-337
-367
-971
-1 070
293
359
1 264
1 429
668
765
-122
-128
88
65
-252
-1 003
510
1 513
810
-142
83
-183
-1 084
524
1 607
911
-67
56
-421
-1 242
488
1 730
895
-121
47
-218
-917
379
1 295
797
-140
42
-366
-1 140
422
1 562
876
-121
20
-506
-1 255
448
1 703
828
-102
23
...
...
...
...
...
…
…
Capital and financial balance c/
Net foreign direct investment
Other capital movements
180
-16
196
390
119
272
231
200
30
359
256
104
326
223
103
243
218
24
400
...
...
473
...
...
...
...
...
Overall balance
Variation in reserve assets d/
-157
157
23
-23
-21
21
177
-177
-96
96
25
-25
34
-34
-32
32
...
...
101.6
58
2 435
100.0
263
2 695
97.4
89
2 991
98.6
293
3 130
97.8
204
3 487
93.1
102
4 009
89.4
278
4 485
91.5
372
…
90.3
...
…
Employment
Labour force participation rate
Unemployment rate f/
Average annual rates
69.4
69.6
9.8
9.1
67.9
8.7
67.8
7.4
67.6
8.1
67.0
10.0
66.6
10.8
67.6
11.2
66.2
11.7
Prices
Variation in consumer prices
(December-December)
Nominal deposit rate g/
Nominal lending rate h/
Annual percentages
7.4
3.2
10.3
5.6
4.6
10.7
4.7
5.1
10.7
7.3
4.5
10.4
4.4
2.9
9.8
6.5
2.7
9.5
9.6
2.7
9.3
2.4
2.5
8.7
Sector público no financiero i/
Total revenue
Tax revenue
Total expenditure
Current expenditure
Interest
Capital expenditure
Primary balance
Overall balance
Percentajes of GDP
27.1
25.9
28.9
25.8
3.9
3.1
2.1
-1.8
25.9
24.2
29.1
25.1
3.7
3.0
0.4
-3.3
27.1
25.9
28.7
24.3
3.9
3.2
2.3
-1.5
27.2
25.7
28.6
25.9
3.5
2.3
2.1
-1.4
29.0
27.4
33.7
30.4
4.5
3.3
-0.2
-4.7
27.6
25.1
36.0
32.7
4.8
3.2
-3.5
-8.3
27.5
25.7
35.4
33.3
5.5
2.1
-2.3
-7.8
29.1
27.4
34.3
33.2
6.1
1.1
0.9
-5.2
29.2
27.0
34.5
32.0
6.0
3.0
0.7
-5.3
49.5
50.7
51.7
55.7
66.0
75.1
80.3
78.7
Other external-sector indicators
Real effective exchange rate (index: 2005=100) e/
Net resource transfer (millions of dollars)
Total gross external debt (millions of dollars)
Public debt
4.3
2.5
9.9
...
(FRQRPLF&RPPLVVLRQIRU/DWLQ$PHULFDDQGWKH&DULEEHDQ(&/$&
7DEOHFRQFOXGHG
2004
Money and credit
Domestic credit
To the public sector
To the private sector
2005
2006
Percentages of GDP, end-of-year stocks
63.8
66.4
69.5
16.7
14.0
12.7
47.0
52.4
56.8
Monetary base
M2
11.0
93.4
9.9
95.8
9.9
93.2
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012 a/
68.8
13.2
55.6
78.9
15.5
63.3
79.8
16.5
63.3
79.6
14.8
64.8
79.3
15.9
63.4
82.9
19.5
63.3
12.4
106.6
13.1
109.0
12.7
105.9
11.3
107.4
13.3
100.5
15.7
96.6
6RXUFH(FRQRPLF&RPPLVVLRQIRU/DWLQ$PHULFDDQGWKH&DULEEHDQ(&/$&RQWKHEDVLVRIRIILFLDOILJXUHV
D3UHOLPLQDU\ILJXUHV
E%DVHGRQILJXUHVLQORFDOFXUUHQF\DWFRQVWDQWSULFHV
F,QFOXGHVHUURUVDQGRPLVVLRQV
G$PLQXVVLJQLQGLFDWHVDQLQFUHDVHLQUHVHUYHDVVHWV
H$QQXDODYHUDJHZHLJKWHGE\WKHYDOXHRIJRRGVH[SRUWVDQGLPSRUWV
I,QFOXGHVKLGGHQXQHPSOR\PHQW1DWLRQZLGHWRWDO
J:HLJKWHGDYHUDJHUDWHRIGHSRVLWUDWHV
K/HQGLQJUDWHZHLJKWHGDYHUDJH
L)LVFDO\HDUVIURP$SULOWR0DUFK
7DEOH
%$5%$'260$,148$57(5/<,1',&$7256
Q.1
Q.2
2011
Q.3
Q.4
Q.1
Q.2
2012
Q.3
Q.4
Q.1
2013
Q.2 a/
Goods exports, f.o.b. (millions of dollars)
Goods imports, c.i.f. (millions of dollars)
Gross international reserves (millions of dollars)
123
420
824
129
458
806
108
451
796
116
497
805
156
433
806
190
428
772
101
426
748
119
493
828
120
425
803
45 b/
158 b/
759 c/
Real effective exchange rate (index: 2005=100) d/
93.2
92.2
91.0
89.4
89.9
90.5
90.6
90.4
90.7
90.1 c/
7.9
9.3
10.4
9.6
7.4
4.4
3.2
2.4
2.3
...
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.7
9.3
7.0
2.7
9.3
7.0
2.7
9.4
7.0
2.7
9.0
7.0
2.6
9.0
7.0
2.5
8.7
7.0
2.5
8.4
7.0
2.5
8.4
7.0
2.5
8.3
7.0
...
...
7.0
-3.9
-1.9
0.2
2.3
2.6
7.5
8.4
7.9
11.3
...
10.5
10.5
10.6
11.1
...
...
12.4
12.9
...
...
Consumer prices
(12-month percentage variation)
Average nominal exchange rate
(Barbados dollars per dollar)
Nominal interest rates (annualized percentages)
Deposit rate f/
Lending rate g/
Monetary policy rates
Domestic credit (variation from same
quarter of preceding year)
Non-performing loans as
a percentage of total credit
6RXUFH(FRQRPLF&RPPLVVLRQIRU/DWLQ$PHULFDDQGWKH&DULEEHDQ(&/$&RQWKHEDVLVRIRIILFLDOILJXUHV
D3UHOLPLQDU\ILJXUHV
E)LJXUHVDVRI$SULO
F)LJXUHVDVRI0D\
G4XDUWHUO\DYHUDJHZHLJKWHGE\WKHYDOXHRIJRRGVH[SRUWVDQGLPSRUWV
H)LJXUHVDVRI)HEUXDU\
I:HLJKWHGDYHUDJHUDWHRIGHSRVLWUDWHV
J/HQGLQJUDWHZHLJKWHGDYHUDJH