THE EXPLANATIONS OF NEW REGULATIONS IN HOUSEHOLD LABOUR
FORCE SURVEY
(1)
Turkish Statistical Institute carried out the household labour force survey, forming the
basis of labour market data sources, since 1988 according to the International Labour
Organization’s norms and standards. Additionally, the European Union Statistical
Office (Eurostat) standards are also followed since 2004.
A- NEW REGULATIONS
(2)
The new regulations for Household Labour Force Survey were carried out with the
period of February 2014 within the framework of the European Union criteria. These
are;
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
(3)
i.
Household labour force survey to be implemented in every week of the year,
Change of the sampling design,
Taking into account the basis of a new administrative division,
The use of new population projection estimates,
Changing in the job search duration used for unemployment criteria.
These changes were given below in detail.
Household labour force survey to be implemented in every week of the year
(4)
Applied to the present labour force survey while taking account one week reference
period starting Monday ending Sunday transition to the new regulations (52 weeks) as
the reference period for the survey of the whole weeks of the year was implemented
continuously. Thus, labour force information is being questioned for the entire week
of the year, increasing the representativeness of the survey and getting better
seasonality were aimed.
(5)
Eurostat proposed and how should be implemented labour force sample survey for the
"continuous survey" application with The European Council Regulation 577/98 of
March 1998 on "the organization of a labour force sample survey in the Community".
Council Regulation 1991/2002 and October 2002 constantly poll the application for
member states to the European Union since 2003 mandates. Continuous survey
application 577/98 Council Regulation is defined in the following way:




(6)
Survey should produce quarterly and annual estimates,
The reference weeks are spread uniformly throughout the whole year,
The reference weeks should be 13 weeks for quarters and 52 weeks for the year,
The interview normally takes place during the week immediately following the
reference week. The reference week and the date of the interview may not be
more than five weeks.
In accordance with these explanations, continuous survey application considers whole
weeks of the year. 52 weeks a year with the implementation of labour force surveys
every week are taken into account in the reference period started instead of fixed
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reference period. With this new practice; it is shown in the diagram below, the number
of reference weeks are taken into account are 13 weeks (4 +5 +4 =13) in each period,
while in old application only 3 weeks reference period covered.
Number of Weeks (Old-New Application)
Old Application
Month
ii.
New Application
Number of
Reference
Weeks
January
1
February
1
March
1
Number of
Reference
Weeks
4
I. Quarter (February)
I. Quarter (February)
5
March
4
April
April
1
4
May
1
June
1
4
July
1
4
August
1
5
Septembe
rOctober
1
4
1
4
Novembe
rDecember
1
5
1
4
Total
12
52
II. Quarter
5
March
April
II. Quarter
Change of the sampling design
(7)
Household labour force survey to be implemented in every week (continuously) of the
year has required the creation of a new sample design.
(8)
Two-stage stratified cluster sampling method was used in Household Labour Force
Survey. Between two consecutive periods and the two consecutive years in the same
period of 50% based on addresses conflicts to ensure rotation design formed and 8
sub-samples were used in each period. In the sample design, the sample size of each
application in the period is equally distributed to the weeks. As of 2014, the quarterly
survey sample size is 44 thousand households. The determination of sample size is
based on the European Council Regulation numbered 577/98. This does not make a
significant difference in the number of annual total sample size, but the sample sizes
of Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) Level 2 (26 zone) has led
to differences.
(9)
Along with the new arrangement, the forecast period is determined based on the
moving 13 weeks to coincide with every three-month period instead of moving the last
three months. The quarterly results based on the new regulations will give the
estimates on the basis of Turkey, the estimates on basis of NUTS Level 1 (12 regions)
and Level 2 (26 regions) will be achieved by yearly estimates.
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iii. Taking into account the basis of a new administrative division
(10) The new series in the household labour force survey’s sampling design and frame are
based on the law called "The Law of Establishment of Greater Municipality in
Thirteen Provinces and Twenty-Six District Municipality” from 2014 which is valid
under the new administrative division.
Number of Settlements and Population in Old and New Administrative Division
Old Administrative Division
Number of
settlement
Total
Urban (20 000 +)
Rural (20 000 -)
Population
New Administrative Division
Rate of Number of
population settlement
(%)
Population
Rate of
population
(%)
37 230
75 627 384
100.0
19 587
75 627 384
100.0
376
54 705 188
72.3
509
65 414 107
86.5
36 854
20 292 196
27.7
19 078
10 213 277
13.5
Source: 2013 Address Based Population Registration System Results
(11) Because of the villages united with greater municipalities in the province, the
significant differences in the distribution of urban and rural areas have emerged. As it
is seen from the table, while 36 thousand 854 settlements in the rural areas for the old
administrative division has dropped to 19 thousand 78 in the new administrative
division. According to the older administrative division, the urban population rate was
72.3%, in the new administrative division has risen 86.5%.
(12) According to the analysis, it was observed that the new administrative division has a
significant impact on the household results. This effect is connected to especially the
urban and rural areas indicators. This old structure has eliminated the comparability
with the urban and rural settlements. We are working on new definitions of urban and
rural areas, until these studies concluded, the results will only be given as Turkey's
total labour force indicators, urban and rural areas results will not be released..
iv. The use of new population projection estimates
(13) The results of Household Labour Force Survey are weighted according to population
projections. Turkish Statistical Institute has renewed population projections using the
most recent population in 2013.
(14) The results of the most important effects on the new projections have been observed in
the urban-rural distribution and population aged 65 years and over. According to the
2008 population projections, the rate of urban areas was realized as 68% and the rural
areas was realized as 32% for the year 2013 used in the current household labour
force, in new population projections because of changing base year and the new
administrative division, the urban rate is estimated 86.5%, rural rate is estimated
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13.5%. These situations have been caused employment figures significant change with
a high rate sectors in rural areas. The increase in the population aged 15 years and
over, a significant portion (about 80%) also occurred in the population aged 65 years
and over. This has affected the population “not in the labour force”.
v. Changing in the job search duration used for unemployment criteria
(15) One of the changes in the labour force indicators is the job search duration used in
unemployment criteria. The reference period is considered "the last four weeks"
including reference period instead of the "last three months"
(16) In the previous application, the results of unemployment are given according to the
definition for persons not employed during the reference period using at least one
channel for seeking a job during the last three months and available to start work
within two weeks. In the new application, the results of unemployment are given
according to the definition for persons search job "last four weeks" and use at least one
search channels and start work within two weeks determined "unemployed".
(17) With these changes made in the job search duration, European Union member
countries’ same period of unemployment criteria has been taken into account.
B- IMPACT OF NEW REGULATIONS ON LABOUR FORCE INDICATORS
(18) New regulations in household labour force survey such as new survey design, field
application, changing job search duration criteria, differences of new population
projections and new administrative division lead to differentiation in series and
eliminate comparability with the previous series.
(19) A pilot study taken as the reference period of 52 weeks was conducted simultaneously
with current household labour force survey during the year 2013 to predict this
differentiation what extent and how it would be and in order to offer comparable
labour force data to users in a series. Time series on the basis of labour force
indicators is revised and provided until January of 2005 by using these simultaneous
pilot study results.
(20) The revised basic labour market indicators are such as labour force, unemployed, the
labour force participation rate, employment rate, unemployment rate, non-agricultural
unemployment rate, the youth unemployment rate, population not in the labour force,
agriculture, industry, construction and services sectors. Those series will be given until
1988 with retrospective estimates when the series come to the new series’ seasonal
structure particularise, retrospective series shall be revised.
(21) As a result of pilot application, using particularly the 2014 administrative division and
differentiation in urban strata of the population structure were affected the deviation of
quarterly data, but it was observed that this deviation stayed in confidence intervals.
Accordingly, the series is expected to take a certain time to stabilize because of the
fluctuations in quarterly data can be observed. Depending on these fluctuations and
stabilization of series, retrospective revision of labour force series may be back on the
agenda.
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(22) When the previous quarterly results were given by Turkey, urban and rural areas, after
the new regulations, the results will be published only for Turkey.
C- FORECASTING METHOD
(23) Discrepancy, due to definition, administrative division and survey implementation
differences between Household Labour Force Survey (LFS) and the Continuous
Household Labour Force Survey (CLFS), affect comparability in the basic labour
force indicators. The indicators produced from CLFS results in order to ensure
comparability over time, taking into account LFS results, the basic labour market
indicators have been calculated retrospectively by using the statistical and econometric
methods until January of 2005.
(24) In the process of calculating backward, the differences in definitions between LFS and
CLFS are reflected in CLFS indicators by using micro-method.
(25) Population and the administrative division differences between LFS and CLFS have
been corrected by using the "Seasonal Interpolation" method. In this method, seasonal
effects are also covered in addition to conventional interpolation method.
(26) “Model-Based Linking" method has been used in order to correct implementation
differences between LFS and CLFS. This approach is essentially linking Growth Rate
by using model-based linking factor. Linking series by using linking factor obtained
from single corresponding period reflect irregular and seasonal patterns into historical
series. By this reason results are biased.
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