Lava flow hazards and risk in the Reykjanes peninsula, Iceland.
Supervisors: Dr Eliza S. Calder1, Dr Sara Barsotti2, Dr Melissa Anne Pfeffer
and collaborator from INGV, Pisa.
1School
of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh ([email protected])
2Icelandic Meteorological Office
Project Summary: This project will assess potential lava flow inundation, and associated
physical vulnerability of infrastructure, in the Reykjanes peninsula, Iceland, using the application
of a newly developed lava flow simulation tool.
Background: Pahoehoe lava flows are the dominant type of lava flow in Iceland, and are
particularly relevant on the Reykjanes peninsula. The shallow slopes of the region have lead to
the prevalence of inflated pahoehoe structures, where flows have propagated through
endogenous growth (inflation), before periodically advancing forward. The emplacement
dynamics of pahoehoe lava flow fields are sufficiently different from the emplacement dynamics
of channelized Aa lava flows that different numerical models are needed to simulate their
progagation.
The Icelandic Ministry for the Environment has initiated a large project Integrated risk
assessment of volcanoes in Iceland. One element of this project is an Initial risk assessment of
volcanic eruptions that may cause extensive damage to infrastructure. The broader objectives
are to minimize loss of life, limit/prevent an increase of risk in the future and to minimize
economic disruption to and damages toward society. Within this broader project, a pilot risk
assessment of the Reykjanes peninsula (Reykjanesskagi) is being performed. One of the
physical vulnerability factors of interest is the threat to infrastructure on the peninsula due to
lava flows, and this project will contribute to that broader task.
Aims and Key research questions: Lava flow inundation and threat will be simulated using a
lava flow model (named ‘flow lobe’ or F-L) recently developed by S. Tarquini and M. de Michieli
Vitturi from INGV Pisa. This simulation tool was specifically developed with the emplacement
dynamics of pahoehoe lava flows in mind. In order to apply F-L appropriately, it will be important
to utilize topography at an adequate resolution and to constrain the input parameters from past
events such as vent locations, flow volumes and inundation footprints (e.g. Tarquini and Favalli,
2011). For pahoehoe lava flow fields which inundate shallow slopes, the morphology of past
lava flows (Stevenson et al, 2012; Hoblitt et al, 2012), which can be derived from the analysis
of the geological record (e.g. Óskarsson and Riishuus, 2013) is critical. Lava flow morphology,
as well as internal structures, provides clear insights on lava flow emplacement dynamics (e.g.
Hamilton et al, 2013). This project will involve assessing the record of previous lava flows in the
region, several of which are historic, and using this record to extract relevant input parameters
with which to undertake a programme of flow modeling using the F-L simulation tool.
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Key research questions will be:
When performing the lava flow hazard evaluation in this region, which input parameters
including e.g. lava volume, effusion rate, eruption duration etc have the largest impact on the
inundation footprints ?
How does the topography of Reykjanes peninsula, and the resolution of the available DEM,
affect the lava flow emplacement simulations?
Of the different styles of effusive activity that is characteristic of the region, which eruption
scenarios would pose the most significant hazard and associated risk ?
What is the vulnerability of the people and infrastructure within the Reykjanes peninsula to
potential invasion of lava flows?
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How can the risk to vulnerable critical infrastructures in the area including e.g. Keflavik airport,
geothermal power plants, the Blue Lagoon etc be most effectively mitigated?
Methodology: The project will involve field assessments of the lava flows in order to determine
emplacement characteristics, remote sensing and aerial photography determination of
inundation footprints and volumes, as well as modelling using the F-L pahoehoe flow simulation
tool.
Research Training: A comprehensive training programme will be provided comprising both
specialist scientific training and generic transferable and professional skills. The student will
undertake training in diverse multidisciplinary areas including volcanic processes, numerical
methods, and computational modelling. Project specific training on the F-L will be provided
through collaboration with INGV.
Requirements: Applications are invited from students with geoscience backgrounds who have
strong quantitative and coding skills.
Further reading
Glaze, and Baloga (2013) Simulation of inflated pahoehoe lava flows. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 255,
108–123. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2013.01.018.
Hamilton et al. (2013) Topographic and stochastic influences on pāhoehoe lava lobe emplacement. Bull
Volcanol 75, 756. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00445-013-0756-8.
Hoblitt et al. (2012) Inflation rates, rifts, and bands in a pahoehoe sheet flow. Geosphere 8(5), 179-195.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1130/GES00656.1.
Óskarsson and Riishuus (2013) The mode of emplacement of Neogene flood basalts in Eastern
Iceland: Facies architecture and structure of the Hólmar and Grjótá olivine basalt groups. J Volcanol
Geotherm Res 267, 92–118. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2013.09.010
Stevenson et al. (2012) Widespread inflation and drainage of a pahoehoe flow field: the Nesjahraun,
Þingvellir, Iceland. Bull Volcanol 74:15–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00445-011-0482-z.
Tarquini and Favalli (2011) Mapping and DOWNFLOW simulation of recent lava flow fields at Mount
Etna. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 204, 27-39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2011.05.001