By Chief Warrant Officer 2 Mark Sexton
n a national security environment
characterized by austerity and
budget constraints, the idea of preventing future conflicts takes on new
importance. Large-scale counterinsurgency and stability operations require
a considerable amount of manpower
and resources. A smaller Army in particular will present serious challenges
for both policymakers and military
leaders. In Phase 0—the first phase of
the military operations continuum, in
which friendly relationships and alliances are forged or strengthened
and/or potential adversaries are deterred—shaping the operating environment will become critical in identifying areas of instability and conflict.
One problem to be confronted during Phase 0 is desertification, which is
the result of poor land management
practices that reduce the effectiveness
of available rainfall. It needs to be recognized as an underlying cause of social, economic and environmental
problems that feed recruitment for violent extremist organizations. Desertification leads to an increasing frequency and severity of drought,
flooding, social breakdown, conflict
over diminishing water and grazing
areas, emigration to urban slums and
across borders, economic failure, and,
ultimately, climate change. It has been
identified as a root cause of instability
in African countries including Niger,
Mali and Somalia, fueling the growth
of al Qaeda-linked extremist organizations and leading to regional destabilization.
U.S. Marine Corps/Cpl. Jamean Berry
I
and
Maj. Shafi Saiduddin
July 2014 ■ ARMY 49
NASA
This photo from
space provides a
view that includes
the African TransSahel region,
which spans nine
countries plagued
by a lack of
sustainable
food and water.
There are indicators that desertification will become a
greater problem in Central Asia and North Korea in the
near future. Understanding the nexus between desertification and instability and elevating it as a priority is a key
step in reducing the effectiveness of violent extremist organizations and building stability in partner nations.
Livestock Threatened
In an arc of instability stretching across North Africa to
India, through parts of the former Soviet republics and into
China, more than 90 percent of the land can feed people
only from livestock. This livestock industry, however, is
threatened by rapid desertification. Population shifts as a
result of desertification can introduce instability into urban
centers, threatening governments of partner nations.
Ideology-based extremist organizations can exploit an
economy-based narrative to piggyback on segments of a society under economic duress. These economic hardships
can facilitate the development of auxiliary and underground networks, even when the insurgent movement and
its prime ideological argument are not appealing to a targeted population.
Worldwide population shifts to commerce hub megacities or primary cities—often border crossings in landlocked
countries or port cities in littoral regions—reinforce the
need for sustainable agriculture. Developing nations must
Chief Warrant Officer 2 Mark Sexton has deployed to Afghanistan three times as a member of a Special Forces A-Team. He is
a National Guard warrant officer and has also worked in
Afghanistan as a security contractor and advisor to the Afghan
Presidential Protective Security Detail. Maj. Shafi Saiduddin
is a Civil Affairs officer in the National Guard and has deployed
to Afghanistan and Africa. In addition, he has worked in civilian law enforcement and the intelligence community.
50
ARMY ■ July 2014
make the shift from a subsistence-based agricultural economy to one that can feed large urban populations. High
food prices lead to social unrest and can become the spark
that ignites mass protests. Research indicates that food
price spikes coincided with riots between 2007 and 2010,
and also with the events of the Arab Spring in 2011. Using
the U.N. food price index, scientists have identified a “disruption threshold” where food prices have the ability to
mobilize populations to violence.
Rapid urbanization also places strain on the infrastructure required to move agricultural products to urban markets. Analysts forecast the growing importance of nonstate
actors such as corporations, religious and social organizations, and criminal and insurgent networks as key players
in the urban environment. Control of food distribution networks may not ultimately be in the hands of partner-nation
governmental organizations. Thus, the second- and thirdorder effects of desertification can be far-reaching and can
significantly affect power balances in nations with historically weak institutions.
The African Trans-Sahel region is the area traversing the
continent from west to east, which includes the countries of
Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Senegal,
Gambia, Cameroon and Nigeria. The Sahel typically receives approximately 10 to 20 inches of rainfall in a year.
The region has traditionally been plagued by lack of sustainable food and water, and it is dependent on donor nations for support and assistance.
Mali has been one of the more active countries joining
Egypt and Libya in terms of insurgency, terrorism, internal
political unrest and foreign military intervention. Recent reports from the area indicate that farmers and herdsmen who
are faced with lack of ability to maintain their families with
subsistence farming have been attracted to al Qaeda-linked
groups as their land has been overcome by the desert sands.
Chief Warrant Officer 2 Mark Sexton
A herder takes
cattle to a watering hole in Mauritania, located in
the Trans-Sahel
region.
Insurgent and terrorist leader Mokhtar Belmokhtar, the
former commander of al Qaeda of the Islamic Magreb, and
the al Qaeda affiliate Movement for Oneness and Jihad in
West Africa, were both based out of the town of Gao in
northwest Mali, where they found a ready stream of recruits,
a base of support and safe haven. The men who joined their
ranks were from the same groups of people directly affected
by the lack of opportunity, food and work.
The most disenfranchised group in the region is the Tuaregs. Following the fall of Libyan dictator Muammar
Gaddafi, weapons and Islamist fighters—particularly Tuareg tribesmen—transited to and from Libya and into
neighboring Nigeria, Algeria and Mali. It is more than a
coincidence that, following this movement of fighters and
weapons from Libya, Islamist militants were able to stage a
takeover of northern Mali. The second-order effect of this
was a Malian military coup in 2012. French forces then
stepped in to take back control of insurgent-controlled areas and help the Malian government reestablish security
and governance under military rule.
Reversing Desertification
The relationship between large-scale climate change and
agricultural practices has led to increased interest in this
field from the scientific community as well as nongovernmental organizations—for example, the U.N.’s Convention
to Combat Desertification. In addition, a number of private
research and advocacy organizations are involved in bringing new methods and ideas to the debate. For centuries,
practitioners and researchers in agricultural and livestock
management attributed desertification and the resulting instability to excessive livestock overgrazing. This concept
has recently been challenged by other methods in the effort
to reduce or stop land degradation.
One such innovative practice, developed and led by the Sa-
vory Institute, a private research organization, advocates and
implements counter-desertification efforts based on a holistic
method that has been practiced on more than 40 million acres
of land on five continents. This method has reversed desertification by using different methods to manage increased
numbers of livestock. Other advocacy groups promote more
traditional methods. It is clear, however, that there is a growing body of research available. There are many potential solutions from which to choose in regard to the political, economic, environmental and military impact of such enormous
developments on people and governments of affected areas.
U.S. military forces should maintain an understanding of,
and capability to assist in, land management and desertification. Army special warfare assets, such as Special Forces
operational detachments and civil-military support elements, are uniquely tailored to accomplish this objective, as
they maintain persistent engagement with—and train, assist
and advise—partnered forces. These small teams of Special
Forces and civil affairs soldiers have the ability to detect desertification impacts through close contact with indigenous
populations. They can then assist them in directing the appropriate resources toward building partner-nation capacity
to begin reversing desertification in the most problematic regions. Doing so decreases economic instability along with
the resultant recruitment pools for terrorists and insurgent
movements. Special operations forces are also assisted by
general-purpose forces, such as the Army’s regionally
aligned brigades, which have a key role in training partnernation general-purpose forces and executing theater security cooperation plans and Joint Chiefs of Staff exercises.
This interdependence, combined with strong relationships between the military and its interagency counterparts, enables the military to work proactively toward conflict prevention and lessens the likelihood of large-scale
combat deployments in the future.
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July 2014 ■ ARMY 51