Drive Broadcast
Revenue With Election
Day Forecasts
By: Michelle Boockoff-Bajdek
Vice President, Marketing
The Weather Company, an IBM Business
Table of Contents
A Look Back in History
3
Breaking Down the Impact of Weather by Voter Demographics
4
Understanding Voter Response to Weather Events
5
Advertising Revenue Opportunity 6
Copyright 2016, The Weather Company, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
1
The 2016 Presidential race has been full of excitement, televised debates, political stories
and targeted advertising has filled the airwaves. Yet, underscoring all the hard work of
campaign tactics is an often under-estimated player, the weather. Research shows that
the weather impacts voter turnout in measurable ways and can even sway election
results. Colder than average temperatures, ice, rain, and snow can swing close elections
by keeping certain voting populations home more than others. Understanding exactly how
the weather impacts voting practices by party, age, region and income level opens an
exciting opportunity for broadcasters to drive political advertising revenue.
Copyright 2016, The Weather Company, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
2
A Look Back in History
One of the most comprehensive academic research studies conducted on the impact
of weather found that two of the fourteen elections studied were heavily influenced by
weather in critical voting territories. The study,1 published in 2007, looked at voter turnout
in fourteen presidential elections over 3,000 counties and found that not only did the
weather impact voter turnout; it in fact changed the outcome of two elections. In 1960,
results indicate that had the weather been rainy or snowy Richard Nixon would have
received the additional Electoral College votes needed to become president sooner.
Conversely, dry elections in 2000 would have led to a Florida win for Al Gore and a general
election loss for George Bush.
Weather impact is not a trend of the past. Leading up to the Iowa caucus a blizzard
threatened to arrive just 12 hours after the caucus was scheduled. If the storm advanced
just hours sooner than predicted, voter turnout would most certainly have been impacted.
In fact, a poll by The Weather Channel found that 17% of Republicans and 12% of
Democrats said snow would keep them away from the Caucus.
And it isn’t just snow that impacts voters. Only 70% of Democrats and 63% of Republicans
said it was never too cold to attend the caucus – that’s a lot of voters who might let
exceptionally cold weather stand in the way.
Although New Hampshire voters appear heartier than those in Iowa, they too would be
affected had the weather taken a turn for the worse.
1. http://myweb.fsu.edu/bgomez/GomezHansfordKrause_JOP_2007.pdf
Copyright 2016, The Weather Company, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
3
Breaking Down the Impact of Weather by
Voter Demographics
In 2012 The Weather Channel evaluated weather related voter behavior by age, location,
income level and party affiliation by surveying thousands of voters across the United
States. The results are very important to campaign advertising strategy.
•
Already-decided voters are more certain they’ll vote with only 19% saying
bad weather will impact whether they make it to the polls, vs. 35% of undecided
voters.
•
Icy conditions keep the most voters away, but maybe not the ones you think.
The more experienced the voter, the more likely ice will NOT keep them away.
Among registered voters age 55 and older, 65% say they will go out to vote in
icy road conditions, 60% for those 34-54, but only 47% for those between 1833.
•
Cold temperatures can even keep voters home. In western states, 6% of
registered voters say they wouldn’t make it to the polls in unseasonably cold
temperatures.
•
If voters make less than $50,000 a year, they are more likely to “probably
not or definitely not” vote in inclement weather than those making more than
$50,000 a year.
In addition to age, income level and party affiliation where voters are located matters a
fair amount. The weather impacts people most in relation to what is considered normal for
the region. What’s considered cold in Arizona is mild in New England. And those who are
used to driving in snow are often less affected by it than regions where snow is infrequent.
The chart below shows the percent of voters who indicated they would “probably not or
definitely not” get out to vote in a variety of bad weather conditions.
PROBABLY OR DEFINITELY NOT GET OUT TO VOTE UNDER THE FOLLOWING CONDITIONS
NORTHEAST
MIDWEST SOUTH
WEST
3%
4%
4%
6%
Unseasonably cold
4%
3%
6%
7%
Below 30 Degrees
4%
5%
5%
6%
Heavy Rain
11%
10%
15%
10%
Ice Roads
7%
8%
9%
9%
Thunderstorm, high winds, hail
5%
5%
8%
9%
Snowing
•
In the south high winds, thunderstorms or hail would keep away a full 9% of
voters compared to only 7% that would be impacted by the same conditions in
the Northeast.
•
Icy road conditions impacts the most voters in the south, with snow affecting
9% of voters in the west – 1.8 times as many as in the Northeast.
Copyright 2016, The Weather Company, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
4
Understanding Voter Response To Weather
Events
Weather events impact voter behavior for two primary reasons - the logistics of traveling to
voting locations in bad weather and the emotional impact of weather on voter mood.
As humans our mood is affected by the weather. It can skew us to feel positive or negative,
make us inclined to expend a little or a lot of energy and it can even open us to change,
or focus us on seeking stable comfort. In an effort to understand the specific impact of
weather conditions The Weather Channel studied more than 12,000 people. The study
found some interesting correlations. While sunshine led to positive feelings, precipitation
drove negative ones. Snowy or stormy weather made people seek comfort and put safety
and preparation as their first priority. While hot, humid, rainy conditions made people
restless, irritated and looking for the easy solution. For voters who are on the fence about
candidate selection the mood altering impact of weather can have a profound effect on
which candidate they select, and whether or not they have the desire to show up at the
voting location in the first place.
In addition to the emotional impact of weather, we can’t forget how much weather events
impact our ability to travel. Democratic candidates take a larger hit than Republicans in
inclement weather due to the makeup of their voter base as they grapple with questions
such as:
•
Will my commute be longer and shorten the window I have available to
vote?
•
Do I have a car to protect from the elements? Or will I have to wait for
public transportation or walk in poor conditions?
•
If I have a car, do I have experience driving on wet or icy roads?
•
Are long lines expected? Do I have the gear to keep me dry and warm if I
have to stand outside and wait my turn?
Undecided voters are most likely to skip voting when travel is impeded simply because they
lack a passion for any particular candidate.
Copyright 2016, The Weather Company, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
5
Advertising Revenue Opportunity
With political TV ad spending projected to top $4.4 billion to support federal races alone2
broadcasters are in a prime position to leverage election-day forecasts to sell weather
related advertising to political campaigns. In fact, $6.5 million was put into just one market
running 10,000 political commercials leading up to the Iowa caucus.3
With all this money on the table campaigns are looking for ways to capitalize on advertising
spend. Research by Sides and UCLA political science professor Lynn Vavreck studied 2012
Presidential Campaign ads and found that while ads had an effect on voter attitude the
impact was surprisingly short-lived, less than a week.4 Leveraging the weather forecast to
optimize ad spend on or near election day is a prime opportunity to leverage meteorologist
expertise by focusing local advertising on the most at risk voters right before and on election
day.
Broadcasters can offer weather related advertising to help campaigns:
•
Targeted messaging - Focus get out to vote campaigns on those voters who
are on the fence about attending by keeping in mind the age, income level and
party affiliation of those they are targeting. Remember, their most loyal voters
are likely to show up no matter what the forecast.
•
Go mobile - Focus outbound communications to encourage voters to head out
to vote during the clearest hours on election day. This is the perfect opportunity
to tie political advertising to mobile weather or traffic applications. According
to BIA/Kelsey mobile spending will grow from $28.72 billion in 2015 to $65.87
billion in 2019. Building compelling case studies now will ensure future revenue
is optimized. Election day coverage is the perfect opportunity to build those
stories.
•
Find at risk voters - Use long-range weather forecasts to understand what
local areas are most likely to be impacted by weather events and advertise
“voting carpool solutions” and other transportation options to avoid voter
disruption.
Election cycles are a prime opportunity to drive advertising revenue and build audience
loyalty. By helping campaigns understand how to leverage weather information for better
targeting, media companies become more than just another communication channel, they
become a strategic partner.
2. http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2015/08/19/432759311/2016-campaign-tv-ad-spending
3. http://themonkeycage.org/2013/05/how-much-did-the-2012-air-war-and-ground-game-matter/
4. http://themonkeycage.org/2013/05/how-much-did-the-2012-air-war-and-ground-game-matter/
Copyright 2016, The Weather Company, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
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