PWP-083 Pricing Behavior in the Initial Summer of the Restructured

PWP-083
Pricing Behavior in the Initial Summer of the
Restructured PJM Wholesale Electricity Market
Erin T. Mansur
April, 2001
This paper is part of the working papers series of the Program on Workable Energy
Regulation (POWER). POWER is a program of the University of California Energy
Institute, a multicampus research unit of the University of California, located on the
Berkeley campus.
University of California Energy Institute
2539 Channing Way
Berkeley, California 94720-5180
www.ucei.org
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Tables and Figures
Table 1: PJM Capacity and Peak Demand in megawatts (MW) by Electric Utility.
Utility
Public Service
Nuclear
Hydro
3,261
11
Coal
Natural
Gas
1,242
3,380
PECO Energy
4,496
303
725
PPL
2,184
152
3,511
512
2,694
56
416
Potomac Elec.
PennElec
Baltimore
1,675
Delmarva
Jersey Central
GPU Nuclear
1,403
Total
Peak
Demand
9,297
9,804
Share of
Capacity
16.4%
2,173
7,763
7,959
13.7%
1,877
7,724
6,711
13.6%
1,069
2,339
6,614
5,927
11.7%
6,194
41
142
6,433
2,631
11.4%
2,135
894
1,000
6,120
6,383
10.8%
928
746
864
2,538
3,441
4.5%
963
378
1,474
5,300
2.6%
1,405
-
2.5%
133
66
Oil
1405
Met. Ed.
19
642
239
191
1,091
2,439
1.9%
Atlantic
22
364
221
454
1,061
2,430
1.9%
9.1%
Other
0
220
1,397
2,587
955
5,158
-
Total
13,021
1,844
19,832
10,205
11,775
56,678
53,025
Share
23.0%
3.3%
35.0%
18.0%
20.8%
100.0%
Source: Capacity from PROSYM Model (Kahn 2000) and Demand from PJM (2000).
36
Table 2: Two-Stage Least Squares Estimate of Net Imports.
Model
LHS
1
Net
Imports
(MW)
Errors
OLS
ln(Price)
705.0
(38.3)
-283.1
(125.9)
.
3499
0.265
0.137
0.059
(0.001)
0.931
3485
0.220
1.732
-2085.6
(280.2)
0.931
3485
.
1.732
Pennsylvania Mean Temp
ln(Demand)
West Virginia Mean Tmp
1278.1
(80.6)
44.37
(17.41)
-21.53
(18.6)
13.92
(15.28)
-26.32
(26.93)
New Jersey Mean Temp
Virginia Mean Temp
IV AR(1) IV AR(1)
White
White
119.8
(8.0)
-104.0
(11.1)
52.6
(9.3)
-43.5
(14.3)
Maryland Mean Temp
Ohio Mean Temp
ln(Price)
2b
Net
Imports
(MW)
-0.006
(0.013)
-0.003
(0.01)
-0.004
(0.013)
0.002
(0.012)
2.306
(0.073)
0.000
(0.012)
0.010
(0.014)
-0.014
(0.013)
0.003
(0.019)
Delaware Mean Temp
New York Mean Temp
2a
May
June
July
August
Constant
Rho
Observations
Adjusted R^2
DW Stat (post-correction)
3
Net
Imports
(MW)
OLS
4a
ln(Price)
IV AR(1) IV AR(1)
White
White
738.5
(36.5)
84 (8.5)
-124.4
(10.3)
59.6
(9.2)
-8.6
(13.5)
1964.8
(102.2)
958.5
(141.3)
1181
(167.7)
582
(151.3)
-1449.9
(168.6)
.
3499
0.370
0.133
4b
Net
Imports
(MW)
1298.5
(79.0)
-0.007
(0.013)
-0.002
(0.009)
-0.001
(0.013)
0.001
(0.012)
0.339
(0.155)
0.058
(0.192)
0.038
(0.216)
0.066
(0.212)
2.307
(0.072)
40.6
(19.1)
-31.1
(18.6)
18.5
(15.3)
-26.4
(26.6)
1756.8
0 (0.012)
(483.3)
0.007
790.2
(0.014) (511.3)
-0.012
980.3
(0.012) (562.2)
0.003
536.0
(0.019) (521.4)
0.106
-3000.5
(0.003) (446.3)
0.906
0.906
3485
3485
0.227
.
1.708
1.708
37
Table 3: Monthly, Time of Day (T.O.D.), and Total Price, Marginal Cost, Markup, and Change in Costs Hourly Averages, and
Aggregate Market Performance.
Panel A: Average Nodal Price
Month/
Demand
Ave Price
T.O.D.
April
25,612
21.4
May
25,871
22.7
June
31,542
37.1
July
36,957
91.7
August
33,941
33.6
Peak
34,678
70.0
Off-Peak
27,835
22.0
Overall
30,687
41.8
Panel B: No Congestion
Month/
Demand
T.O.D.
April
25,430
May
24,581
June
30,119
July
35,850
August
30,247
Peak
27,114
Off-Peak
33,152
Overall
29,149
Price
21.4
21.0
38.0
98.3
21.6
83.0
20.5
41.6
Min Price
21.3
20.8
34.2
86.9
27.0
63.0
21.2
38.6
Marginal
Cost
21.6
28.2
29.9
47.3
28.9
40.0
26.8
31.2
Marginal
Cost
21.8
28.7
30.7
46.5
33.8
39.0
27.5
32.3
Change in Daily
Costs (000s)
0.2
-27
59
263
9.7
181
-20
64
Market
Performance
0.002
-0.242
0.284
0.538
0.055
0.483
-0.191
0.293
Markup
Change in Daily
Costs (000s)
0.8
-32
73
297
-29
253
-24
70
Market
Performance
0.010
-0.315
0.342
0.567
-0.290
0.566
-0.250
0.326
-0.22
-7.22
8.09
50.94
-7.25
42.97
-6.22
10.36
38
Table 4: Prais-Winsten Model of Lerner Indices on a Quadratic Net Demand Curve
(Lerner Index Truncated at 0 and 1).
Dependent Variable
Mean Price
Coef.
Std. Err.
-55.33
4.31
1514
94.6
0.510
0.046
0.65
3527
0.13
Net Load (in millions of MW)
Net Load Squared
Constant
Rho
Sample
Adjusted R^2
No Congestion
Coef.
Std. Err.
-55.31
4.56
1513
101
0.481
0.049
0.63
2797
0.15
Table 5: Sensitivity Analysis of Market Performance Measure.
Cost Estimates
Base Costs
No Change in Imports
$250 Cap
Minimum Price
0.231
0.262
-0.065
Mean Price
0.293
0.322
0.027
No Congestion
0.326
0.363
0.010
Table 6: Hourly average MWh for RoR&R Generation, Pumped Storage Generation,
Total Hydroelectric Generation, Total “Zero-Priced” Bids, and the Percentage
of “Zero-Priced” Bids that were Actually Produced as Hydroelectric Power.
Month
RoR&R
Pumped Storage
April
May
June
July
August
739
295
100
74
72
57
63
93
73
91
Hydro
Generation
796
359
193
148
163
“Zero-Priced”
Bids
2,196
2,519
2,571
3,009
2,692
Percent Hydro
36%
14%
7.5%
4.9%
6.1%
Table 7: Average Spot Market and Total Demand (MW) by Month and Time of Day
Month
April
May
June
July
August
Spot
Off-Peak
4,000
5,000
4,500
4,000
4,500
Spot
Peak
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,000
4,900
Total
Off-Peak
24,199
23,787
28,267
32,948
30,351
Total
Peak
27,587
28,788
36,126
42,568
38,968
39
Scenario 1
P
MC(B)
Average P constrained
P unconstrained
MC(A)
Firm A
Total demand to be met
Firm B
Scenario 2
MC(A)
P
MC(B)
P unconstrained
Average P constrained
Firm A
Total demand to be met
Firm B
Figure 1: Comparison of Average Constrained Prices and Unconstrained Prices.
40
Net Import Supply Curve for April 1999
100
90
80
70
Price
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
Net Imports
Figure 2: Estimated Net Import Supply Curve for April 1999.
41
Total and Expected Market Supply
120
Expected Market Supply
100
Total Market Supply
Marginal Cost ($)
80
60
40
20
0
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
MW Capacity
Figure 3: Total and expected market supply curve for April 1, 1999.
42
Daily Averages of Price and Costs in April
35
30
$/MWh
25
20
Mean Price
15
Mean MC Estimate
95th Percentile MC
10
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
Day
Figure 4: Daily Averages of Price, Expected Marginal Cost, and 95th Percentile Draw for April, 1999.
43
Daily Maxima of Price and Costs in July
1000
900
Mean Price
Mean MC Estimate
800
95th Percentile MC
700
$/MWh
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
Day
Figure 5: Daily Maxima of Price, Expected Marginal Cost, and 95th Percentile Draw for April, 1999.
44
F ra c ti o n
.112376
0
-200
-150
-100
-50
R es iduals
0
50
100
Figure 6: Histogram of Difference Between Load-Weighted Nodal Prices and Unconstrained Price Estimates.
45
L e rne r Ind e x
1
0
5
10
15
20
25
GW Fos s il D em and
30
35
40
Figure 7: Plot of Lerner Index on Fossil Demand.
46

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