Journal of Experimental Botany, Vol. 52, No. 364, pp. 2187–2197, November 2001 Seed reserve-dependent growth responses to temperature and water potential in carrot (Daucus carota L.) W.E. Finch-Savage1,3, K. Phelps1, J.R.A. Steckel1, W.R. Whalley2 and H.R. Rowse1 1 2 Horticulture Research International, Wellesbourne, Warwick CV35 9EF, UK Silsoe Research Institute, Wrest Park, Silsoe, Bedford MK45 4HS, UK Received 18 June 2001; Accepted 26 June 2001 Abstract Introduction Both temperature and soil moisture vary greatly in the surface layers of the soil through which seedlings grow following germination. The work presented studied the impact of these environmental variables on post-germination carrot growth to nominal seedling emergence. The rapid pre-crook downward growth of both the hypocotyl and root was consistent with their requirement for establishment in soil drying from the surface. At all temperatures, both hypocotyl and root growth rates decreased as water stress increased and there was a very distinct temperature optimum that tended to occur at lower temperatures as water stress increased. A model based on the thermodynamics of reversible protein denaturation was adapted to include the effects of water potential in order to describe these growth rate responses. In general, the percentage of seedlings that reached the crook stage (start of upward hypocotyl growth) decreased at the extremes of the temperature range used and was progressively reduced by increasing water stress. A model was developed to describe this response based on the idea that each seedling within a population has lower and upper temperature thresholds and a water potential threshold which define the conditions within which it is able to grow. This threshold modelling approach which applies growth rates within a distribution of temperature and water potential thresholds could be used to simulate seedling growth by dividing time into suitable units. The distribution of seedling emergence in time, as well as the number of seedlings that become established has a major influence on the dynamics of plant communities and subsequent competition between individual plants in crop, weed and natural populations. The emergence time of individual seedlings is the result of a complex interaction of ambient weather conditions, soil, seed and seedling characteristics that influence their germination and subsequent reserve-dependent growth. Finch-Savage et al. have shown that delays in the mean time to seedling emergence were due largely to delays in germination, but that seedling losses and variation in the spread of seedling emergence times within the population occurred largely during the post-germination growth phase (Finch-Savage et al., 1998). Significant progress has been made in the prediction of germination times from a population of seeds under variable conditions of temperature and soil moisture (Gummerson, 1986; Finch-Savage and Phelps, 1993; Dahal and Bradford, 1994; Bradford, 1995; Finch-Savage et al., 1998; Rowse et al., 1999). However, knowledge of preemergence seedling growth is more limited, especially in relatively small dicot seeds. Of the wide range of factors that can influence pre-emergence growth, three are ubiquitous: temperature, moisture and mechanical impedance. If the effect of these variables can be explained and modelled then more meaningful studies of the impact of intermittent problems such as soil crusting can be made. Whalley et al. studied the impact of mechanical impedance at a limited range of water potentials and suboptimal temperatures (Whalley et al., 1999). The present work considers how this phase of reserve-dependent growth is affected by water potential at temperatures covering both the sub- and supra-optimal range. Key words: Daucus carota, seedling growth threshold models, water stress, temperature, seedling establishment. 3 To whom correspondence should be addressed. Fax: q44 789 470552. E-mail: [email protected] ß Society for Experimental Biology 2001 2188 Finch-Savage et al. A number of studies have been made of the response of pre-emergence seedling growth to temperature (Wanjura et al., 1970; Blacklow, 1972; Hsu et al., 1984; Wheeler and Ellis, 1991; Weaich et al., 1996, and references therein). Different methods have been used to describe growth data from different species, but in many cases a thermal time approach has been adopted which assumes growth rate is linearly related to temperature. This approach can provide useful predictions of the timing of seedling emergence for some applications. However, linearity usually occurs over a limited temperature range. In addition, soil moisture varies greatly in the surface layers of the soil through which seedlings grow. The utility of thermal time for seedling emergence prediction is therefore limited in practice. Fewer studies have been made on the interaction of temperature and water potential on pre-emergence seedling growth (Fyfield and Gregory, 1989; Choinski and Tuohy, 1991). The kinetics of development in response to temperature is similar in many organisms (animal and plant) whose temperature is dependent on ambient conditions (poikilotherms). In these organisms development can be described using models based on the thermodynamics of reversible protein denaturation (Sharpe and DeMichele, 1977). Within these models, rate of development is determined by the reversible inactivation, at high and low temperatures, of developmental control enzymes. This approach accommodates the linearity in response over a limited temperature range that has been adopted in thermal time models. However, it also accommodates the non-linearity often observed outside that range (Hsu et al., 1984). The present work describes the adaptation of an improved model formulation derived by Schoolfield et al. to include the response to water potential (Schoolfield et al., 1981). The mechanisms that determine the timing of seed germination in many species under variable soil conditions are such that germination occurs only when sufficient moisture is available for the initial seedling growth (Ross and Hegarty, 1979; Finch-Savage and Phelps, 1993). Near the soil surface germination therefore tends to occur most often after rainfall. Following germination, initial growth of both the root and hypocotyl of epigeal seedlings is downwards, arguably as an adaptation to maintain contact with soil moisture in the surface layers of the soil which dry rapidly. A crook then forms in the hypocotyl to facilitate upward growth. Further growth is by extension of the hypocotyl to pull the cotyledons to the soil surface. In the present work carrot has been used as a representative epigeal seedling with the limited reserves of a small seed. However, the success of seedling emergence in carrot crops has immediate practical relevance because it directly influences both their yield and monetary value (Finch-Savage, 1995). For example, although it is plant density that determines both total yield and mean root size in carrot crops (Bleasdale, 1967), the variation in seedling emergence times can greatly influence the uniformity of plant size at harvest (Benjamin, 1982). This in turn determines the proportion of the crop in the higher-value size grades specified by markets. An understanding of the causes of variation in seedling emergence both within and between sowing occasions is therefore necessary to determine efficient crop production practices in carrot and to predict their outcome. The approach taken in the present work furthered the aim to develop the components of a simulation model for seedling emergence in the variable environmental conditions of surface soil layers. Materials and methods Carrot (Daucus carota L; F1 hybrid; cv. Narman) seeds were size graded to 1.6–2 mm. Before use in experiments they were soaked in a 3.2% aqueous solution of sodium dichloroisocyanurate (Sigma-Aldrich Co. Ltd, Poole, UK) for 6 min to surface-sterilize them, then rinsed five times in distilled water and redried to their initial moisture content of 8.5% (wet weight basis). After treatment, their viability in germination tests (% normal seedlings, ISTA, 1996) was 93%. In the following experiments, either dry, ungerminated seeds or seeds selected with emerged radicles (- or ¼ 1 mm) were laid on a single layer of moist absorbent tinted paper (T300, Papierfabriek Schut bv., Heelsum, Holland) in transparent polystyrene boxes (20 3 80 3 125 mm) in the dark. There were five replicate boxes per treatment, each containing 12 seeds on which seedling growth was recorded. The seeds were in a row 40 mm from the base end of a sloping box held in racks contained in a plastic propagator. The whole assembly was placed in a polyethylene bag to prevent moisture loss and covered with thick black polyethylene sheet to exclude light. Seedlings were exposed to light from a single fluorescent tube during measurement only. The assemblies were held in cabinets with temperature control that varied by less than 0.5 8C. Temperature was monitored continuously by thermistors placed, like seeds, on moist paper. Following germination, all growth measurements were made from the hypocotyluroot join to the tip of the root or the tip of the crook using digital calipers (Helios-Mebtechnik, Germany). Experiment 1 The time of germination (radicle emerged), crook formation and daily measurements of root and hypocotyl growth were recorded from individual dry seeds placed on moist absorbent paper at 20 8C until growth ceased. Experiment 2 Germinated seeds were selected at 66 h and 96 h of imbibition (the times when the 25th and 75th quartiles germinated in preliminary experiments) from separate bulks of seeds placed on moist absorbent paper towels in plastic trays (75 3 400 3 700 mm) in the dark at 20 8C. The two seed bulks were placed to germinate at appropriate times that allowed the selection of 66 h and 96 h samples at the same time. As seeds were selected with radicles - or ¼ 1 mm (i.e. just germinated) the 66 h and 96 h Seedling growth models 2189 samples were considered to represent the 25th and 75th quartiles of the seed population only. Thus representative percentiles of the bulk of the population could be compared and seed from the tails of the distribution of germination rates were avoided. Following selection, seeds were kept moist and placed in boxes with their radicles in contact with the moist paper. In this way, seeds were placed in all combinations of eight temperatures between 3 8C and 35 8C and six water potentials between 0 and 1.2 MPa. These treatments were set up on different occasions, but on each occasion both fractions of the seed population were used. The experimental design therefore comprised five replicates of an 8 3 6 3 2 factorial. Seedlings were observed at least daily and more frequently in near optimal conditions for growth. The root and hypocotyl length was measured on each individual seedling on two occasions, as the crook formed and when the hypocotyl length was approximately 15 mm (nominal seedling emergence). Water potentials were established using aqueous solutions of polyethylene glycol (PEG 20 000, Merck, Munchen, Germany). This was preferred to a moist solid matrix as it allowed continuous monitoring of seedlings growth and enabled seedling exposure to accurate and constant values of water potential. This is not possible in a matrix, because steep potential profiles can develop at the surface of the seedlings as they take up water. When seedlings are submerged in PEG solutions they can become oxygen stressed. This is unlikely in the present system where seedling roots are, at most, covered by a thin film of PEG. Thus the surface area of the PEG exposed to oxygen compared to its volume is very large. PEG solution (12.5 ml) was placed in the box laying flat. The box was then placed at an angle in the rack when the paper was fully moist, excess solution drained to the base of the box and then germinated seeds were placed on the paper. In germination experiments it is common practice to move seeds to new filter paper and solution at regular intervals. However, growing seedlings could be damaged by moving them. Therefore to maintain constant conditions, at each observation the box was laid flat to wash the solution over the seedlings. In addition, at weekly intervals the excess solution in the box was replaced. Calibration curves of PEG concentration and water potential were constructed. The water potential measured was that of a filter paper disc placed at the position of the seed on filter paper in a box as used for seedling growth measurements. Measurement was made 48 h after setting up the box. The filter paper disc was placed into the chamber of a sealed Peltier-type thermocouple psychrometer unit (C52 units connected to an HR-33T dewpoint microvoltmeter; Wescor Inc, Logan, UT, USA.) and water potential was measured at the required temperatures. The values determined were used to make up solutions used in experimental treatments. Calibration curves and experiments were carried out with the same batch of PEG. The problem of exclusion of PEG from the absorbent paper (pointed out by Hardegree and Emmerich, 1990) was taken into account by having an excess of solution and by measuring water potential using moist paper discs in the psychrometer. Statistical methods Rates of growth for roots and hypocotyl, before and after crook formation, were estimated for each seedling based on an initial root length of 1 mm. To allow for either linear or exponential growth they were calculated from both the raw data and the logarithms of the raw data. Preliminary inspection of these data was by a stratified analysis of variance based on a factorial set of seven temperatures (3, 7, 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 8C), three water potentials (0, 0.21 and 0.59 MPa) and two germination quartiles (25% and 75%) chosen to exclude treatments where few seeds had germinated. Model for seedling growth rates: Sharpe and DeMichele proposed a model to describe how the rate of a biological process is affected by temperature (Sharpe and DeMichele, 1977). Their model is derived from the following assumptions: (1) at all temperatures, the development rate of a poikilotherm population is determined by a single rate-controlling enzyme reaction; and (2) this rate-controlling enzyme is reversibly inactivated at high and low temperatures, but a constant total concentration (activeqinactive) is maintained independent of temperature. Their model was later reformulated (Schoolfield et al., 1981) by replacing three of its six parameters by three new thermodynamic parameters with more intuitive biological interpretations. Parameter estimation was better under the new formulation because there was less correlation between parameters and initial estimates could be obtained by visual inspection of graphs. The Schoolfield et al. model used in this paper is: " # HA6¼ 1 T 1 exp rð25 CÞ 298 298 T R rðTÞ ¼ HL 1 1 HH 1 1 1 þ exp þ exp T1=2L T T1=2H T R R (1) where r(T ) is growth rate at temperature T(K), r(25 8C) is the development rate at the standard reference temperature of 25 8C assuming no enzyme inactivation (298 K ¼ 25 8C), R is the universal gas constant (1.987 cal deg1 mol1), DHA/ is the enthalpy of activation of the reaction that is catalysed by the enzyme (cal mol1), DHL, DHH are the changes in enthalpy associated with lowuhigh temperature inactivation of the enzyme (cal mol1), T1u2L , T1u2H are the temperatures (K) at which the enzyme is 12 active and 12 lowuhigh temperature inactive (Schoolfield et al., 1981). This model was chosen because it has a physical basis and was developed to describe growth processes. Although the original nomenclature is retained no attempt is made to interpret the coefficients in terms of the reaction processes that determine seedling growth. However, the coefficients are expressed as functions of water potential thus allowing the model to be applied under all conditions of temperature and water potential. These functions were derived by inspection of the data, although in practice there were insufficient data points to propose anything more complex than linear or exponential functions. As suggested by Schoolfield et al. specification of the model was facilitated by the study of Arrhenius plots where logarithms of rate are plotted against the inverse of temperature (K) (Schoolfield et al., 1981). These plots provide guidance as to where there is high or low temperature inactivation; in addition they showed which parameters were affected by water stress. Once a model had been proposed, preliminary estimates of the parameters were made from the Arrhenius plots and model (1) was fitted to the data from the 25th and 75th germination quartiles using the FITNONLINEAR command of Genstat (Genstat 5 Committee, 1993). Model for the percentage of seedlings reaching the crook stage: The model developed is based on the idea that each seedling within a population has lower and upper thresholds which define the temperature range within which it is able to grow and reach the crook stage. Likewise it has a water potential threshold below which it cannot grow and reach the crook stage. In the model it is assumed that these thresholds are normally distributed within the seedling population so that the 2190 Finch-Savage et al. final percentage of seedlings reaching the crook stage at any given temperature or water potential can be predicted. This general approach is explained at length by Grundy et al. who used it to model percentage germination within seed populations (Grundy et al., 2000). They estimated the parameters of the model using a generalized linear model (McCullough and Nelder, 1989) with a binomial error distribution and a probit link function. Inspection of the percentage of seedlings that formed a crook in the present work suggested that the same form of generalized linear model was appropriate to describe these data. Results Experiment 1 Lengths of roots and shoots of a sample of individual seedlings were plotted against time and the pattern of growth of the seedling with median germination time is shown in Fig. 1. Following germination, both the root and hypocotyl contribute downward growth (Fig. 1b, c), a crook then forms (Fig. 1d) and all subsequent hypocotyl growth is upward while all root growth is downward Fig. 1. The pattern of carrot seed germination and early seedling growth. (a) downward growth (h, hypocotyl; j, root plus hypocotyl) and upward growth (m) following germination of the median seed in the population. (b–f ) Schematic representation of seedling growth stages. (g) Cumulative germination (solid), crook formation (dotted) and nominal seedling emergence (15 mm upward growth, dashed) of the seed population at 20 8C in the dark. (Fig. 1e, f ). This pattern of growth is the same for all individuals in the population. However, post-crook growth was sometimes linear and sometimes exponential across the population. No abnormal seedling growth (Bekendam and Grob, 1979) was recorded in this seed lot. Figure 1g shows the distribution of times taken within the population to germinate, form a crook and to achieve 15 mm of upward growth (nominal seedling emergence). In general, the earliest germinating seeds tended to have faster seedling growth (first decile of the population to germinate, 7.1 mm d1) than the latest germinating seeds (last decile to germinate, 5.2 mm d1) resulting in a greater spread of nominal emergence times than germination times. However, growth rate was similar in the bulk of the population. Experiment 2 Seedling growth rates: Henceforth seedling growth rates are referred to as (1) root pre-crook, (2) root post-crook, (3) hypocotyl pre-crook, (4) hypocotyl post-crook. Analyses of variance using logarithmic transformation indicated that all four growth rates were affected by temperature and water potential (P-0.05), but there was no significant difference between the 25th and 75th quartiles. Using untransformed data all four rates showed a significant (P-0.001) interaction between temperature and water potential, but again there was no evidence of a difference between the quartiles. The two germination quartiles were therefore treated as replicates in subsequent studies on growth rates. Subsequently, rates were used based on linear growth of the hypocotyl before crook formation and exponential growth otherwise. The reasons for this are discussed later. Frequency distributions of the four rates were characterized to investigate their utility for building models of seedling populations. Histograms were drawn based on the 120 seedlings from each combination of temperature and water potential and the means, standard deviations and skewness were inspected. Few of the distributions showed evidence of skewness and for each of the rates there was a strong correlation between the standard deviation and the mean. Normal distributions were fitted to all of the distributions with more than 10 recorded seedlings. These fitted well with only 3 of 33, 8 of 30, 3 of 33, 5 of 30 for rates 1 to 4, respectively, showing a significant lack of fit (P-0.01) according to a chi-squared test. Means and standard deviations for each combination of temperatures and water potentials were calculated from the mean rates of the seedlings in 10 (5 replicates 3 2 quartiles) boxes of each combination. The standard deviations were linearly related to the means. This indicates that the frequency distributions for all combinations of each rate had the same coefficient of variation. Seedling growth models 2191 Regression analysis provided estimates of these coefficients (14.2%, 16.9%, 24.0%, 13.8% for rates 1 to 4, respectively) and a measure of goodness of fit (r2 ¼ 0.78, 0.84, 0.90, 0.69 on 32 df for rates 1 to 4, respectively). These coefficients of variation measure the variation between seedlings placed in different boxes rather than just variation between seedlings. These were thought more appropriate to the situation in field soil. Comparison of rates 2, 3 and 4 with rate 1 indicated that the four rates were highly intercorrelated (r2 ¼ 0.913, 0.951 and 0.917 for rates 2, 3 and 4, respectively). The close relationship between hypocotyl and root growth rates for the pre- and post-crook stages is illustrated in Fig. 2. These results show that the root : shoot ratio was unaffected by environment. The rates of growth of individual seedlings were examined to see whether seeds with slower rates pre-crook were also slower post-crook and whether seeds with slow growing roots tended to have slow growing hypocotyls. Seeds from a relatively slow-growing treatment combination (15 8C and 0.2 MPa) were classified according to the four quartiles of each of the four rates and contingency tables constructed to make the comparisons (Tables 1, 2). In the absence of an association very similar numbers of observations would have been expected in each cell of the table. A chi-squared test on 9 df was used to determine the significance of any association. No association was found with pre-crook hypocotyl growth rate, but there was an association between root rates pre- and post-crook (P-0.001, Table 1) and between root rates post-crook and hypocotyl rates post-crook (P-0.001, Table 2). A similar effect was observed in the other treatment combinations. Fig. 2. The relationship between the pre-crook root growth rate and (k) pre-crook hypocotyl growth rate (mm d1), and (%) post-crook hypocotyl and (m) post-crook root growth rates (loge mm d1). Data are means across all treatments. r (25 C) ¼ exp(b0qb1(W )); Modelling seedling growth rates: The five replicates of each quartile were combined so that temperature and water potential effects could be quantified, but data from the two quartiles were kept separate to give some indication of the variability in the data. A clear pattern emerged when rates were plotted against temperature and water potential (Fig. 3). At all temperatures rates decreased as water stress increased. There was a very distinct rate optimum that tended to occur at lower temperatures as water stress increased. When these data were drawn as Arrhenius plots (Fig. 4) a consistent effect of water potential became apparent. It is proposed that the approximately linear region between 283 and 303 K (Fig. 4) is the range where there is neither low nor high temperature inactivation. Increasing the amount of water stress reduced the growth rate, but it did not affect the slope of the line. Water stress also affected the temperature at which inactivation occurred. Based on this interpretation, equation (1) was reformulated so that some of the parameters were functions of water potential. The consistent response to water potential at central temperatures implied that DHA/ remained the same at all water potentials. Of the remaining parameters only the relationship of r (25 8C) to water potential could be readily determined; graphs of logarithm of rate versus water potential at each temperature show that they form a set of straight lines. In the absence of other evidence, T1u2L and T1u2H were assumed to be linearly related to water potential whilst D HL and D HH remained constant. Thus equation (1) was modified to include T1u2L ¼ b2qb3(W ) and T1u2H ¼ b4qb5(W ) Table 1. Contingency table showing the relationship between pre-crook and post-crook root growth rates at 15 8C and 0.2 Mpa Each cell contains the corresponding number of observations in each quartile of the population. Root post-crook Fourth quartile Third quartile Second quartile First quartile Root pre-crook Median rates 0.28 0.35 0.38 0.41 Fourth quartile Third quartile Second quartile First quartile 0.46 0.54 0.57 0.62 11 6 3 4 6 4 11 4 5 11 5 3 2 4 5 14 2192 Finch-Savage et al. Table 2. Contingency table showing the relationship between post-crook hypocotyl and post-crook root growth rates at 15 8C and 0.2 Mpa Each cell contains the corresponding number of observations in each rate quartile of the population. Hypocotyl post-crook Fourth quartile Third quartile Second quartile First quartile Root post-crook Median rates 1.31 1.52 1.68 1.88 Fourth quartile Third quartile Second quartile First quartile 0.28 0.35 0.38 0.41 16 5 2 1 2 7 9 7 4 8 4 8 2 5 9 9 Fig. 3. The effect of temperature and water potential on seedling growth rates. (a) Pre-crook root, (b) pre-crook hypocotyl, (c) post-crook root, (d) post-crook hypocotyl. Curves according to Equation 1 are fitted to data collected at each nominal water potential; (k) water, (u) 0.2 MPa, (n) 0.5 MPa, (\) 0.6 MPa, and (e) 0.8 MPa. The curves are drawn for the water potentials listed in the headings of Table 4, but where appropriate the parameter estimates are based on values in the footnote of that table. Note different scales, growth rates assume exponential growth except for pre-crook hypocotyl (b) see text. The model parameters were estimated separately for the pre-crook and post-crook stages (Table 3). At both stages the parameters of the model were constrained to be the same for root and hypocotyl growth rates. However, root rates were multiplied by a further parameter that estimated the ratio of the root rates to the hypocotyl rates. The model fitting procedure was weighted by the number of recorded seedlings. Additional weighting by the reciprocal of the rate values (suggested by Schoolfield et al., 1981), was tried but this gave too much emphasis to the fit of low rate values. To reduce errors in predicting seedling emergence under field conditions, good estimation of faster rates is more important than that of slower rates. For both pre-crook and post-crook the fitting Seedling growth models 2193 Table 4. Percentage of seeds from the 25th germination percentile that reach the crook formation stage Values in parenthesis are fitted using the model described in the text (Equation 2). Temperature (8C) Water potential (MPa) 0 3 7 10 15 20 25 30 35 Fig. 4. Arrhenius plots for pre-crook root growth rate at a range of water potentials. Symbols as for Fig. 3. Table 3. Parameters of seedling growth rate models Parameter Pre-crook estimate SE Post-crook estimate SE b0 b1 b2 b3 b4 b5 DHA/ DHL DHH Rootuhypocotyl ratio 0.7131 1.293 276.31 0 304.84 6.86 15035 57595 46244 0.9006 0.0944 0.115 1.68 – 1.57 1.35 2458 36794 4459 0.0103 0.075 1.1515 278.85 0 304.85 2.49 10729 37562 45571 1.0676 0.113 0.0887 3.95 – 2.49 1.57 4838 17109 5780 0.0119 procedure failed unless b3 was set to 0 suggesting that T1u2L did not interact with water potential. In general, the curves generated from the model fitted the data well (Fig. 3). Modelling seedling numbers reaching crook formation: The percentage of seedlings that reached the crook formation stage was greatly influenced by temperature and water potential (Table 4). In general, the percentage decreased at the extremes of the temperature range and was progressively reduced by increasing water stress. This effect was greater with the slower germinating seeds (75th percentile; data not shown) than with the faster germinating seeds (25th percentile). This pattern of results clearly shows the impact of the distribution of temperature and water potential thresholds for growth within the population. Several stages of scrutinizing graphs (not shown) were used to develop an empirical model to describe the distribution of temperature and water potential thresholds for growth: (1) Graphs of normal equivalent deviates (probits) of the percentages against water potential produced parallel straight lines for all temperatures of each a 93 97 98 100 98 95 97 97 (100) (100) (100) (100) (100) (100) (99) (92) 0.21 0.48 0.59 0.77 96 98 95 90 97 95 93 93 80 98 97 92 97 78 75 0 48 73 85 95 88 75 15 0 0 0 20 37 47 0 0 0 (94) (98) (99) (99) (99) (98) (91) (62) (80) (76) (83) (88) (85) (91)a (72)a (34)a (35) (56) (66) (73) (69) (53) (26) (5) (7) (17) (30) (37) (33) (16) (4) (0) Water potential, 0.35 MPa. of the two germination percentiles. (2) For each percentile, plotting intercepts for each temperature against the corresponding temperature values produced quadratic curves. (3) When these quadratic curves were compared for the two quartiles they were parallel. Therefore a model was fitted that incorporated terms for the quartiles thus: s ¼ nW 1 (2:675 0:02144pq0:1912T 0:006083T 2 qQy ) (2) where s is the number of seedlings reaching the crook stage, n is the number sown, p is the germination percentile (25 or 75), T is the temperature (8C), y is the water potential (MPa). W1 is the inverse of the normal probability function. Q ¼ 5.151 and 3.896 for the 25th and 75th percentiles, respectively. The residual mean deviance was 9.5 on 90 df. The model provided a relatively simple description of the main features of the data (Fig. 5). Fitted values from the model for the 25th percentile in each treatment combination are given in Table 4. Analysis of variance of the lengths of the roots and the hypocotyls at the time of crooking showed a statistically significant (P-0.001 and P-0.01, respectively) interaction between temperature and water potential, but these effects were small relative to those amongst the rates. The overall mean values of 10.8 and 2.8 mm determined for root and hypocotyl lengths, respectively, were therefore considered to be sufficiently accurate for simulation purposes. The relatively constant value of the lengths at crook formation and the major effects of temperature and water potential on the pre-crook growth rates led to a substantial range of times to crook formation. For example, times ranged from 0.96 d at 25 8C in water, through 10 d at 7 8C in water to 57.8 d at 3 8C and 0.77 MPa. 2194 Finch-Savage et al. Fig. 5. The effect of water potential and temperature on the numbers of seedlings that reach the stage of crook formation. The response surface shown is the output from Equation 2 describing data in Table 4 for the 25th percentile. Discussion Seedling growth There is a reversible moisture-sensitive block to germination that prevents germination in drying soils (Ross and Hegarty, 1979; Finch-Savage and Phelps, 1993; Finch-Savage et al., 1998) and therefore seeds tend to germinate following rain or irrigation. In the absence of subsequent rain, only a brief opportunity for the completion of germination and seedling growth may be presented before the surface soil layers dry again, but the seedsuseedlings appear adapted to this. Seed ‘priming’ in the soil (Rowse et al., 1999, and references therein) means that germination can be rapid when water becomes available and then the initial rapid downward growth of both the root and hypocotyl, described here, will contribute to maintaining contact with soil moisture as the surface layers dry. The hydraulic conductivity of soil in the surface layer quickly falls to a very low value as drying continues and this will tend to reduce the rate of water loss from deeper layers (Lascano and van Bavel, 1986). The seedling root will therefore grow into increasingly wet soil and may not subsequently become severely water stressed. This same scenario is likely for seeds in the surface layers of soil under natural conditions. The initial period of downward seedling growth following germination is therefore critical to successful seedling establishment. Both temperature and water potential had large predictable effects on seedling growth and these will interact under variable conditions. For example, seedling growth rate increased as sub-optimal temperature increased, however in soil, higher temperature is associated with more rapid drying of the surface layers. Consequently, the rate of growth will decrease as the soil around the seedling starts to dry. For example, growth rate in the present work was reduced to c. 50% at –0.5 MPa compared to that in water. Thus soil moisture can rapidly become a limiting factor during post-germination seedling growth. Whalley et al. show that elongation rates of pea seedlings were similar when subjected to either a soil matric potential or to an osmotic potential in a PEG 20 000 solution (Whalley et al., 1998). It is therefore reasonable to consider that the results collected in the present work will represent seedling growth in the soil in the absence of significant impedance to growth. Even at optimum temperatures growth ceased so that most seedlings failed to reach crook formation at water potentials between 0.6 and 0.8 MPa, which could explain the data presented by Hegarty of percentage carrot seedling emergence in soils of different water potentials. In that work, there was a sharp decline from c. 70% to 10% seedling emergence at approximately 0.6 MPa (Hegarty, 1976). In other work carrot seedling growth immediately after germination was completely arrested in 50% of the population at 0.87 MPa (Ross and Hegarty, 1979). In preliminary work germinated onion seeds were grown alongside germinated carrot seeds on polyethylene glycol solutions in the same box. At 0.8 MPa carrot growth was prevented, but onions continued to grow past crook formation (data not presented). This indicated that threshold water potentials for growth differ between these two species and that, as suggested by Lawlor, there is no toxic effect of high molecular weight polyethylene glycol (PEG 20 000) (Lawlor, 1970). Therefore, growth arrest is a result of water stress not some property of PEG (20 000). In addition, carrot seedlings that did not grow at 0.8 MPa subsequently grew when transferred to water (data not shown). However, if they were held for a long time at 0.8 MPa the radicle tip turned brown and regrowth appeared to result from a secondary initial. This has a practical consequence, because partial drying of the newly-germinated root can result in the production of split roots with consequent impact on the value of the carrot crop when harvested (Globerson and Feder, 1987). In practice, models of germination and subsequent seedling growth could be used to time water applications to avoid interrupted progress to seedling emergence and prevent root damage. This approach has so far been used to time a single irrigation for improved germination (Finch-Savage and Steckel, 1994). Pre-emergence seedling growth is seed reservedependent and in carrots the final length of seedlings depends on the initial seed weight (Tamet et al., 1994), although relative growth rate is not directly influenced by initial seed weight (Tamet et al., 1996). In the absence of a crust, carrot seedlings can emerge through 45–50 mm Seedling growth models 2195 of soil without significant reduction in the percentage of seedlings that emerge (Tamet et al., 1996). However, extension of the hypocotyl to more than c. 10 mm before emergence resulted in reduced subsequent growth and a reduced ability to penetrate soil crusts. Delayed seedling emergence also reduced post emergence growth as a result of reduced efficiency for photosynthesis (Tamet et al., 1996). Accurate seedling emergence models could be used to time irrigation events to limit these effects of delayed emergence and reduce the impact of time-dependent seedbed deterioration. There are differences in the rate of seedling growth within the seedling population that can be directly related to germination rate in carrots (Finch-Savage and McQuistan, 1988). Results from experiment 1 confirm this result and show that at the extremes of the population the fastest and slowest germinating seeds had the fastest and slowest post-germination growth rates, respectively. However, both experiments 1 and 2 show that although growth rates vary in the bulk of the population (at least within those selected as 25th to 75th percentiles) these differences are not associated with germination time. After germination, seedlings with the fastest pre-crook growth rates had the fastest post-crook root and hypocotyl growth rates. This correlation did not extend to pre-crook hypocotyl growth and it is possible that this part of seedling growth may result from cell elongation only, in line with the seedlings’ ability for rapid downward growth when water is available in the surface layers of the soil. An absence of cell division in early growth may account for the relatively constant mean pre-crook length of the hypocotyl and of the root across temperature and water potential treatments. Hypocotyl growth can result from both cell division and elongation or from elongation only depending on the species (Galli, 1988). In Arabidopsis thaliana elongation is initiated at the base of the hypocotyl (Gendreau et al., 1997) consistent with the initial rapid downward growth observed here before crook formation in carrot. Modelling seedling growth In onion (Allium cepa L.), pre-crook cotyledon growth was linearly related to time and thereafter increased exponentially with time (Wheeler and Ellis, 1991). Exponential pre-emergent seedling growth has also been reported in a wide range of species (Wanjura and Buxton, 1972; Hsu et al., 1984; Wheeler and Ellis, 1991; Weaich et al., 1996) and was thought to end when seed reserves became exhausted (Wanjura and Buxton, 1972). In the present work with carrot, both pre- and post-crook hypocotyl growth could be adequately described by a linear or exponential model. This may be because seedling growth was recorded to 15 mm only, a nominal sowing depth commonly used by commercial growers, so that above this length seedlings would emerge in practice. Using the same seed lot as in the present work Whalley et al. grew seedlings for longer than those recorded here, and then seedling growth could be described more accurately by an exponential model (Whalley et al., 1999). Therefore a linear model was used for pre-crook hypocotyl growth and an exponential model for the other three growth stages. This is consistent with growth by cell elongation only in the hypocotyl before crook formation and by cell division and expansion in the other growth phases. Elsewhere, in Vicia faba the exponential phase of growth was associated with the onset of cell division (Rogan and Simon, 1975). In germination studies, hydrothermal time (Gummerson, 1986; Bradford, 1995) has been widely adopted to describe the seeds’ response to water potential and temperature. This approach uses linear rate relationships within temperature and water potential thresholds. The non-linear nature of the data presented here makes this model unacceptable, as it has in some germination studies (Marshall and Squire, 1996). However, the widespread use of computers enables more complex approaches to rate data feasible, when this can be justified. Thus threshold models can be developed to provide a more accurate description of the data while retaining a similar general approach. In the present work the utility of such a model to describe the impact of temperature and water potential on the growth rates of seedlings within thresholds for growth has been shown. The rates at all stages of development were correlated, except pre-crook hypocotyl growth. Furthermore the studies on the frequency distribution of the growth rates suggested that they were normally distributed with constant coefficients of variation. Thus a simulation could be built, from the model presented, to describe the growth of a whole population by selecting a random normal deviate for each seedling then calculating rates according to the organ (root or hypocotyl) and development stage. This model could also indicate the time of crook formation. It is important to have this information in a simulation of seedling emergence as it defines the point when upward growth starts with the associated impact of soil impedance to growth, a factor that is also dependent on soil water potential (Whalley et al., 1999). The crook formation model provides thresholds for pre-crook downward growth. The central importance of rapid pre-crook growth to the successful completion of seedling emergence in variable soil conditions has been discussed above. Currently, as far as these authors are aware, this initial downward growth of both the root and hypocotyl is not considered in any models of seedling emergence. The work presented, provides a quantitative basis for including this growth pattern into simulations of seedling emergence. It extends understanding of seedling growth from small seeds and can be combined with the 2196 Finch-Savage et al. growth rate model into a simulation by dividing time into suitable units. The full seedling emergence simulation would include other models that describe seed germination (Rowse et al., 1999) and the impact of soil impedance to growth (Whalley et al., 1999) in the same species. Seedling emergence simulation has obvious application for indicating best establishment practices, not least the timing of irrigation to give maximum effect on germination and growth with minimum impact on seedbed deterioration. In a wider context the simulation could be adapted to describe the establishment of weeds and of natural plant communities. 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