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The excess of transitions among nucleotide substitutions: New methods of estimating transition bias underscore its signicance. Trends Ecol. Evol. 11:158–163. YANG , Z. 1993. Maximum-likelihood estimation of phylogeny from DNA sequences when substitution rates vary over sites. Mol. Biol. Evol. 10:1396–1401. YANG , Z. 1996. Among-site rate variation and its impact on phylogenetic analyses. Trends Ecol. Evol. 11:367–372. Received 23 September 1997; accepted 15 October 1998 Associate Editor: D. Cannatella Syst. Biol. 48(2):399-406, 1999 Apomorphy Distribution Is an Important Aspect of Cladogram Symmetry PAUL N. PEARSON Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Queens Road, Bristol BS8 1RJ, United Kingdom; E-mail: [email protected] In recent years there has been a great deal of interest in the balance of cladograms, which has generally come to be accepted as meaning the extent to which the internal nodes subtend clades of equal size (Fig. 1). In particular, several studies have suggested that a higher proportion of real cladograms culled from the literature are unbalanced (comb-shaped or pectinate) than would be expected if they were produced by a random Markovian branching process of speciation (Colless, 1982; Guyer and Slowinski, 1991, 1993; Heard, 1992; Mooers et al., 1995). One reason for the interest is methodological: If cladograms are statistically unbalanced, they will contain a higher proportion of long branch lengths than would otherwise be expected, which has implications for the accuracy with which they reect true phylogeny (Rohlf et al., 1990). A more fundamental reason for the interest, however, is that the ndings may provide important information about patterns and processes of evolution (Heard, 1992, 1996; Kirkpatrick and Slatkin, 1993; Mooers and Heard, 1997; Bond and Opell, 1998). A variety of potential methodological artifacts might produce a tendency for imbalance in cladograms, even if no such pattern exists in the underlying phylogeny (Colless, 1982, 1995; Guyer and Slowinski, 1991; Mooers et al., 1995; Huelsenbeck and Kirkpatrick, 1996). Nevertheless, if the methodological problems can be resolved (e.g., Farris and Källersjö, 1998), or at least if their effects can be adequately quantied, it should be possible to study patterns of evolution through using cladogram shape. This eld is in its infancy (Mooers and Heard, 1997). Perhaps the most fundamental question that cladograms may help resolve is whether evolution is largely stochastic and nonprogressive (e.g. Gould, 1988), or if phylogenies contain ingrained asymmetry, implying nonrandom differences in the evolutionary success of species. An important aspect of cladogram symmetry has been overlooked in previous work on the subject, namely, the distribution of apomorphies. As discussed by Mindell et al. 400 SYSTEMATIC BIOLOGY VOL. 48 (1989, 1990) and Omland (1997), we have no reason to presume that morphological characters are acquired in a clock-like fashion, randomly across a particular tree. Information on apomorphy distribution may be crucial for distinguishing the evolutionary patterns that may have produced imbalance in a cladogram. I offer suggestions about approaches for the measurement of apomorphy distribution and, in particular, I propose an index for comparing the diversities of clades subtended by relatively apomorphic and plesiomorphic sister taxa. In this paper, the symmetry of a cladogram refers not only to the balance, but also to other factors, including the distribution of apomorphies (for example, a balanced cladogram may have an asymmetrical distribution of apomorphies). STRATOPHENETIC TREES This contribution has grown from a paleontological study (Pearson, 1998) of symmetry in “stratophenetic” (Gingerich, 1990) species-level phylogenies of fossil groups, which are used routinely for biostratigraphy. Unlike cladograms, these paleontological phylogenies are constructed from stratigraphically ordered fossil samples in which both speciations and extinctions are indicated. They tend to have an unequal-branching or budding conguration, such that so-called ancestral species persist through speciation events to coexist with their descendants (see also the simulated phylogenies in classic paleontological works such as Raup et al. [1973] and Stanley [1979]). The polarity of the branching events in such trees provided the basis for two principal tests for phylogenetic asymmetry, called the “Ancestor–Descendant (A-D) Speciation Test” and “A-D Extinction Test” (Pearson, 1998). In analyzing large trees of various fossil groups (foraminifera, nannoplankton, and graptoloids) for the various patterns shown in Figure 2, I found that, in general, descendant species tend to have had both a higher probability of speciation and, independently, a lower probability of extinction than their coexisting ancestors (Pearson, 1998). This result corresponds to the so-called step-series pattern of evolution discussed by Simpson (1953:219-221) . FIGURE 1. (a) A perfectly balanced cladogram. (b) A perfectly unbalanced cladogram. If we assume a random speciation model, most real cladograms would be expected to have a topology between these two extremes. Cladograms, of course, have a bifurcating V-shape conguration, and so, at rst sight, the approach used in the paleontological study discussed above would seem to be inapplicable to them. However, the bifurcating conguration of a cladogram is a methodological necessity and not in any way evidence that speciation actually was equally divergent in a morphological sense. Obviously, if a real speciation event was asymmetrical, wherein one daughter species changed its morphology with respect to the ancestor more substantially than the other, the cladogram would still be constrained to a bifurcating conguration. Nev- 1999 POINTS OF VIEW 401 (Mayr, 1974); a similar pattern also can occur under sympatric conditions (e.g., Sorhannus et al., 1988; Lazarus et al., 1995; Pearson et al., 1997). It is important to investigate the signicance of Hennig’s deviation rule in the context of cladogram symmetry. FIGURE 2. Patterns of asymmetry in stratophenetic phylogenies that have a budding topology (Pearson, 1998). In these diagrams, vertical lines represent the stratigraphical occurrence of Linnaean typological species. The horizontal axis represents morphological separation, but the scale is arbitrary. In each case, an ancestor and its descendant coexist at time t1 . (a) The Ancestor–Descendant Speciation Test. In example 1, a new species is derived from the ancestor of the previous bifurcation; in example 2, it is derived from the descendant. (b) The Ancestor–Descendant Extinction Test. In example 3, the ancestor becomes extinct rst; in example 4, the descendant becomes extinct rst. In a random model of phylogeny, we should not be able to predict which of two species at t1 is most likely to speciate or become extinct rst. In Pearson (1998), the frequencies of these patterns were summed across the nodes of large stratophenetic phylogenies of various fossil groups and compared by using the chi-square statistic. It was found that typically, ancestors were simultaneously less likely to branch and more likely to become extinct than their descendants, producing a “step-series” type pattern of evolution. ertheless, the two resulting daughter species would be likely to possess unequal numbers of apomorphies (Fig. 3). In an extreme case, one of the daughter species might be a “metaspecies,” possessing no unique apomorphies at all (see Smith, 1994:132) . Hennig (1966:207) proposed the rule that “when a species splits, one of the two daughter species tends to deviate more strongly than the other from the common stem species” (see Farris, 1976). This expectation accords with the allopatric speciation model A MARKOVIAN BRANCHING MODEL Let us assume an extreme case in which all speciations are asymmetrical in a morphological sense and are expressed on the cladogram as nodes about which there are unequal numbers of apomorphies. Figure 4 shows the rst three iterations of a random Markovian branching model, akin to that discussed by Harding (1971) and used in many subsequent studies of cladogram balance. If we examine the cladograms FIGURE 3. (a) A speciation that is equally bifurcating in a morphological sense (left) would be expected to produce daughter species with equal numbers of apomorphies (right). (b) A speciation event that is unequally branching in morphology would be expected to produce sister species with unequal numbers of apomorphies. A pure budding event in which the ancestral species persists unchanged through the speciation event produces a “metaspecies” that lacks autapomorphies. A, a taxon equally or more apomorphic than its sister; P, a taxon that is plesiomorphic compared with its sister. 402 SYSTEMATIC BIOLOGY VOL. 48 FIGURE 4. A random Markovian branching algorithm produces six cladograms that have four terminal taxa. In terms of balance, there are only two distinct topologies in the top row of this gure (see text). However, when plesiomorphic and apomorphic sister taxa are distinguished (P = plesiomorphic, A = apomorphic), there are ve distinct topologies. If branching order is also considered, there are six. in the top row of Figure 4 and consider rst the balance, we can see that only two distinct topologies are present: a balanced topology (the middle two) and an unbalanced topology (the rest). Note that the unbalanced trees are considered as having the same topology because one can rotate freely about the nodes of a cladogram to produce identical congurations. Various authors have compared the topologies of real cladograms of different sizes with their expected frequencies as predicted by this model (e.g., Simberloff et al., 1981; Savage, 1983; Guyer and Slowinski, 1991). However, if we also consider the distinction between apomorphic and plesiomorphic sister taxa, the various topologies can no longer be considered identical because, effectively, one can no longer rotate freely about the nodes. In the case of dendrograms, in which the temporal order of branching is recorded, all six trees are distinguishable. In the case of cladograms, the two perfectly balanced cladograms in the third generation are indistinguishable because the relative branching order in different parts of the phylogeny is not preserved, but the others are distinct. PATTERNS OF EVOLUTION As is clear from the branching model (Fig. 4), apomorphy distribution can be consid- ered an aspect of the symmetry of a cladogram. But what might it indicate, in an evolutionary sense? Consider two contrasting patterns of evolution, iterative and stepseries evolution (Fig. 5). In iterative evolution, a series of taxa are repeatedly derived from a more conservative ancestral stock. This stock is, of course, agrantly paraphyletic, but it may preserve a coherent aspect in the eyes of traditional taxonomists by virtue of the fact that it changes little over time by comparison with its more apomorphic descendants (Mayr, 1974). Such a pattern may occur if the ancestral group occupies a more stable environment than its descendants. An example of this is the stickleback sh Gasterosteus, in which a stable marine “species” has apparently given rise to vast numbers of short-lived descendant species in transient freshwater environments (Schluter and McPhail, 1992). Iterative evolution also has been invoked by paleontologists to account for the multiple evolution of shelf-sea taxa, like particular kinds of ammonites and trilobites, from more conservative and long-lived deepwater ancestral groups (Raup and Stanley, 1978:365–368). Step-series evolution is, in a sense, the opposite of iterative evolution. In this pattern, newly evolved taxa are more likely to 1999 POINTS OF VIEW give rise to further taxa than are their coexisting ancestral species (and they may also be less likely to become extinct). A stepseries pattern may result from cladogenetic evolution along an environmental gradient (Grant, 1963) or be a consequence of the competitive superiority of newly evolved taxa over preexisting forms (Simpson, 1953). The key point of this contribution is that although the iterative and step-series evolutionary processes are opposites, both tend to produce an unbalanced cladogram. The cladograms may be distinguished, however, by their distribution of apomorphies (Fig. 5). An iterative-type process would be expected to produce a comb-shaped cladogram in which the apomorphies are concentrated on the external (terminal) branches. In contrast, a step-series process would be expected to produce a comb-shaped cladogram in which the apomorphies are concentrated on the internal (nonterminal) branches. Therefore, by considering apomorphy distribution, it is possible to differentiate these evolutionary patterns. MEASURING APOMORPHY D ISTRIBUTION A variety of evolutionary processes may affect the distribution of apomorphies on a cladogram, and consequently, a variety of fruitful approaches may be taken in assessing that distribution. One aspect has already been examined in the pioneering study of Mindell et al. (1989, 1990), who used lizard allozyme data to test the punctuated equilibrium model of evolution by searching for a correlation between the number of branching events a species-lineage has experienced and the number of characters it has acquired. To do this, they assumed a clock-like null model in which character changes occurred randomly on all branches. Because they found a correlation, their study was upheld as supporting the punctuated equilibrium model. However, this has recently been contested on the grounds that an inappropriate method of data coding was used and that in fact there are a large number of equally parsimonious trees for the data, many of which may not exhibit such a correlation (Murphy and Lovejoy, 1998). 403 FIGURE 5. (a) An iterative pattern of evolution translates into an unbalanced cladogram in which apomorphies are concentrated on external (terminal) branches. (b) A step-series pattern of evolution translates into an unbalanced cladogram in which apomorphies are concentrated on internal branches. Another simple method of assessing apomorphy distribution allied to the approach of Mindell et al. (1989) is to compare the number of apomorphies on internal and external branches and see if this proportion deviates signicantly from randomness. Alternatively, one could ignore the actual number of apomorphies and instead determine simply whether internal branches tend to be more or less apomorphic than their sisters. Both these approaches assume a null model equivalent to random branching and stasis, rather than clock-like acquisition of characters as used by Mindell et al. (1989). Such methods may provide a rst indication of whether imbalance on a cladogram is due to the iterative or to the step-series processes discussed above. Perhaps the most interesting hypothesis to test is whether the fact a taxon is relatively apomorphic or plesiomorphic (compared with its sister) inuences its subsequent evolutionary success (as measured by the diversity of the clade it subtends). The simple measures discussed above do not take account of the depth on the clado- 404 SYSTEMATIC BIOLOGY gram at which the internal branches are situated (i.e., how close they are to the root). If we choose instead to give more weight to the deeper branches because they subtend larger clades, the best approach has to be framed more directly in terms of cladogram symmetry. I suggest using an index similar to Colless’s (1982) well-known index of cladogram balance (I c ) as modied by Heard (1992). Colless’s index sums, over all (n – 1) nodes in a cladogram with n tips, the numbers of tips subtended by the right-hand (TR ) and left-hand (TL ) branches at each node and normalizes them as follows: P | TR – TL | Ic = (all interior nodes) (n–1)(n–2) 2 (all interior nodes) (n–1)(n–2) 2 number of possible values for trees of particular lengths is xed. If, for a given tree, Ic < 1, I a may vary between –Ic and +Ic . The index Ia does not take account of the actual number of apomorphies that occur on particular branches (i.e., the extent to which branches are more or less apomorphic than their sisters and whether or not the plesiomorphic sister taxon contains some number of apomorphies), but further modications could easily be suggested that take those factors into account. In addition, if a clock-like null model were preferred to a stasis null model, the number of apomorphies on each branch could be normalized to an estimate of elapsed time since branching. (1) The index may range from 0 (completely balanced) to 1 (completely unbalanced), but for cladograms of xed n, only a restricted number of values are possible because of geometrical constraints; in particular, perfect balance can be obtained only in cladograms of certain sizes. Note that, for any given node, the portion of the cladogram considered as being on the right-hand or left-hand side is arbitrary, because in a cladogram one can rotate freely about the nodes. For both cladograms in Figure 5, Ic = 1. To measure the relationship between the apomorphic/plesiomorphic designation of taxa relative to their sisters and the subsequent diversity of the clades they subtend (Ia ), we may simply adopt the convention that, for each node, the number of taxa subtended by the more apomorphic branch (TA ) must be subtracted from the number of taxa subtended by the more plesiomorphic branch (TP ). Hence, P (TA – TP ) Ia = VOL. 48 (2) This index may vary from –1 (in which internal branches are all relatively plesiomorphic compared with their sisters, as in the top cladogram of Fig. 5) to +1 (internal branches are all relatively apomorphic, as in the bottom cladogram of Fig. 5). As with Ic , the PROBLEMS WITH PROCEDURES AND DATA SETS There are many potential difculties in applying such measures to real data. Ideally, indices of apomorphy symmetry could be considered alongside and integrated with the existing indices of balance, the probability distributions of which are already well understood (e.g., Shao and Sokal, 1990; Heard, 1992; Guyer and Slowinski, 1993; Rogers, 1993, 1994, 1996; Brown, 1994; Colless, 1995; Fusco and Cronk, 1995; Huelsenbeck and Kirkpatrick, 1996). Unfortunately, apomorphy distribution is likely to be affected by the same biases in phylogenetic analysis that plague studies of cladogram balance (e.g., Huelsenbeck and Kirkpatrick, 1996). A particular problem is that many cladograms are constructed by using very few characters, leading to multiple equally parsimonious trees with different distributions of characters. We can expect this to make inferences based on apomorphy distribution unreliable. Another difculty is that a high incidence of homoplasy would be expected to obscure the historical pattern of character acquisition on which the approach depends (cf. Sanderson, 1990). Also, polytomies must somehow be taken into account, because they may indicate multiple iterative evolution from an unchanging ancestral stock. Furthermore, there is the specic problem identied by Fitch and Bruschi (1987), namely, that clades with relatively few taxa are likely to provide less evidence 1999 405 POINTS OF VIEW of character-state changes than are larger clades. Also, one should determine whether the “characters” analyzed are truly independent of one another before drawing any rm conclusions (Emerson and Hastings, 1998). In addition to the above, there are obvious difculties in analyzing trees in which characters, taxa, or both have been consciously or unconsciously selected for inclusion in a study because they are considered to be of particular use in elucidating an expected phylogenetic pattern. For example, workers may have selected multiple stem-group taxa that lead in a step-wise manner to a more completely sampled crown group of interest, giving an unbalanced topology. Similarly, there may be a bias towards choosing characters that are expected to lie among the internal nodes of a tree and so can distinguish clades, rather than characters that are expected to lie on external branches and so merely add further support in the form of autapomorphies to taxa that are already well differentiated through the use of other characters. Clearly, great care needs to be taken in selecting suitable cladograms for analysis and in assessing the potential biases induced by the method of cladogram construction if a meaningful measurement of apomorphy distribution is to be expected. PREDICTION In conclusion, it is inappropriate to analyze real data sets before the problems outlined above have been properly investigated and their effects estimated. Nevertheless, the fact that several stratophenetic phylogenies from the better parts of the fossil record have all been found to exhibit a strongly signicant step-series pattern, as opposed to an iterative pattern (Pearson, 1998), leads to the following prediction: The preponderance of pectinate cladograms in the literature is the result of the relative success of apomorphic taxa over their more plesiomorphic sisters, where success is measured in terms of resistance to extinction or propensity for speciation. 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POWELL1 Department of Biological Sciences, The University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, Alabama 35487, USA An inconsistency in taxonomy has been the imperfect alignment between the kingdoms of organisms recognized and the three a Address correspondence to Dr. Martha J. Powell, Department of Biological Sciences, Box 870344, The University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, Alabama 35487, USA; E-mail: [email protected]. major codes of biological nomenclature: zoological (ICZN, 1985), botanical (ICBN, 1994), and bacteriological (ICNB, 1992). Hawksworth (1995) and Spamer and Bogan (1997) cited additional codes for cultivated plants and for viruses; however, it is the three kingdom-specic codes that concern us here. The question of kingdom and
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