Low Carbon Resilient Cities:
Investment Opportunities for ‘Better’ Growth
January 2015
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Aberdeen • Dundee • Edinburgh • Glasgow • Inverness • Perth • Stirling
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Low Carbon Resilient Cities: Investment Opportunities for ‘Better’ Growth
scottishcitiesalliance
Document title: Overview and Collaboration Report
Date:
January 2015
Prepared by:
Stefanie O’Gorman
Checked by:
Mark Crouch
Reviewed by:
Chris Thomas
Approved by:
Gordon McGregor
Company name: Jacobs U.K. Limited
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Contents
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Acronyms and Abbreviationsiii
Executive Summary1
1.
Context3
1.1
The Project3
1.2
The Policy Context4
1.3
The Scottish Cities Alliance
6
2.
Climate and Emissions Projections
8
3.
City Actions10
3.1
Adaptation10
3.2
Mitigation11
3.3
Action Delivery14
4.
The Value of Investment
17
5.
Collaborative Action20
6.
Recommendations23
6.1
Leadership23
6.2
Capacity23
6.3
Policy23
6.4
Funding23
End Notes and References
ii
24
Acronyms and Abbreviations
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Acronym
Full Name
Acronym
Full Name
C40 Cities
C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group
PSCLF
Public Sector Climate Leaders Forum
CCLP
Climate Change Leadership Programme
PWLB
Public Works Loans Board
CCRA
Climate Change Risk Assessment
REIF
Renewable Energy Investment Fund
CDP
Carbon Disclosure Project
RES
Resource Efficient Scotland
CIP
City Investment Plan
RPP2
Second Report on Proposal and Policies
CPPs
Community Planning Partners
SCA
The Scottish Cities Alliance
DECC
Department of Energy and Climate Change
SCDI
Scottish Council for Development and Industry
EU ETS
European Union Emissions Trading Scheme
SCKC
The Scottish Cities Knowledge Centre
FTE
Full Time Equivalent
SFT
Scottish Futures Trust
GCEC
Global Commission on the Economy and Climate
SMEs
Small and Medium Enterprises
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
SOA
Single Outcome Agreement
GHG
Greenhouse Gases
SPRUCE
Scottish Partnership for Regeneration in Urban Centres
GIB
The Green Investment Bank
SSN
Sustainable Scotland Network
GVA
Gross Value Added
HGPS
The Scottish Government’s Draft Heat Generation Policy Statement
IO Analysis Input Output Analysis
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPCC AR5
IPCC 5th Assessment Report
ktCO2
Kilotonnes Carbon Dioxide
LCES
Low Carbon Economic Strategy
LCITP
Low Carbon Infrastructure Transition Programme
LCLIP
Local Climate Impact Profiles
LED
Light Emitting Diode
NCE
New Climate Economy
OWES
Offshore Wind Expert Support
PBCCD
Public Bodies Climate Change Duties
iii
Executive Summary
Our climate is changing. The evidence
is convincing. Whilst the scale and
seriousness of the challenges should
not be underestimated, there are
opportunities, which if taken, offer
significant benefits. This report provides
the evidence that beneficial economic,
environmental and social outcomes
can be realised if some of these
opportunities are seized. This report
focuses on the risks and economic
opportunities posed by a changing
climate in Scotland’s cities.
The link between action on climate
change and economic growth is cited
by many as significant, including the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (e.g. in the 5th Assessment
Report) and the Scottish Government
(e.g. in the Low Carbon Economic
Strategy). The goal must be for ‘better’
economic growth, where a low carbon
and adaptive pathway delivers greater
benefits to society rather than one
which ignores or exacerbates the risks
we face. ‘Better growth’1 is growth
that is inclusive, builds resilience,
strengthens local communities and
increases their economic opportunities.
Such growth also improves the quality
of life in multiple ways: for instance in
providing jobs and training opportunities;
enhancing local air quality; reducing fuel
poverty; reducing commuting time; and
sustaining the natural environment.
An investment of 1% (£1.3 billion) of
Scotland’s Gross Domestic Product in
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delivering adaptation and mitigation
projects on the ground, thereby
supporting the transition to a low carbon
economy, would provide the following
direct economic benefits:
and energy from waste programmes. It
is important to note that these options
are not intended to represent all possible
low carbon activities in the cities over
the next 5-10 years, and that the
investment requirements identified do
not represent an upper limit on the need
for investment.
• Economic output2 worth £2.9 billion;
• Gross Value Added worth £1 billion;
and
• 21,000 full time equivalent jobs.
Collectively these prioritised actions
represent an investment need in the
region of £340 million over a 5 to 10 year
programme. The direct benefits from this
investment are estimated as follows:
Scotland’s cities have a critical role to
play in driving, regulating and supporting
such investment and delivering more
and better growth. While it is clear from
the analysis carried out as part of this
project that across all the Scottish cities
substantial activities are underway
to advance this agenda, there are
opportunities being missed because the
scale of actions being undertaken and
the pace of their delivery is disconnected
from the urgency of the challenge. To
some degree this reflects the level of
leadership driving change, which needs
to be stronger and more consistent.
• Economic output worth £682 million;
• Gross Value Added worth £251
million;
• 4,885 full time equivalent jobs;
• Revenue saving of £21 million per
year3, largely realised by the Local
Authorities; and
• A reduction of almost 64,000 tCO2
per year4. This is equivalent to around
10% of the emissions from council
activities in the seven cities.
A strategic response is required to
address the challenge-response
disconnect, and the inconsistent
leadership visible through mismatched
policy positions. To capitalise on better
growth opportunities more specifically,
a range of priority actions for the cities
to deliver have been recommended.
These actions include improved street
lighting, energy efficiency retrofitting,
district heat and power, hydrogen fuel
initiatives, green transport, electric cars
Collaboration opportunities across
the cities have also been identified for
improvements in street lighting, energy
efficiency retrofitting and district heating.
While the priority projects included in the
investment above are primarily mitigation
actions, it is vitally important that sight is
not lost of the need to adapt to climate
change – significant cost avoidance is
central to such a response. Increasing
cities’ resilience to the risks posed
by climate change through actions
1
such as ongoing investment in flood
defence, ‘blue green’ infrastructure,
and enhanced sustainable building
standards will bring both tangible
and intangible benefits. These will be
provided through additional direct
economic development and the related
improvements in social and cultural
capital. Low carbon, resilient cities also
serve to improve the immediate and long
term desirability of the city to residents,
businesses and visitors alike, by
reducing the direct and indirect damage
costs which may otherwise be incurred.
The competitiveness of the cities and
the quality of life they offer is improved,
supporting the goal of delivering ‘better
growth’.
Executive Summary
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Recommendations
Capacity
7. The SCA should employ resources to develop city specific ‘project delivery
networks’ to drive forward prioritised activities within an agreed and coordinated
programme. Such networks would support the development of procurement
and funding strategies if required, alongside the development and delivery of the
individual projects. Offering a flexible and fluid approach to collaboration would
serve to allow the cities to engage on topics of importance to each of them, to
share their experience with others and to play to their strengths.
Leadership
Consistent and visible leadership on the Low Carbon Economy is currently
lacking. The growth agendas set by the Scottish cities and the application of the
Government’s Low Carbon Economic Strategy and its corresponding climate change
mitigation and adaptation ambitions are disconnected.
1. There needs to be an unequivocal and explanatory policy statement from the
Scottish Cities Alliance (SCA) on how they see the cities specifically addressing
low carbon growth: this will show strong leadership and align divergent agendas.
8. To ensure good practice and expertise is leveraged to its full extent, the SCA
should develop a secondment programme whereby key individuals (from
local authorities, other public bodies, business or communities) who have
demonstrated strong delivery in elements of the low carbon economy can be
seconded within the SCA members and develop partnerships to accelerate
delivery and the scale and pace of responses to climate change.
2. The SCA should also develop a minimum set of standards for development
within the cities, to provide consistent and clear expectations of their investment
and development partners.
3. The SCA should establish a Low Carbon Economic Strategy for the cities,
recognising each city’s distinctiveness which transparently demonstrates how
the interrelated agendas and the opportunities raised in ‘Low Carbon Scotland’,
the second Report on Proposal and Policies (RPP2), are to be advanced.
Policy
9. The Scottish Government should ensure that consistent expectations are set
for public bodies considered major players under the soon to be mandatory
Public Bodies Climate Change Duties. Support must also be provided to ensure
that change and progress is driven by these duties rather than just providing a
reporting mechanism for business as usual.
4. Supporting this and to clarify what low carbon investment looks like, there is
also a need for good practice examples which demonstrate how low carbon
growth can be achieved in practical terms and demonstrating the win-win nature
of such developments. These should be developed by each city linked to their
areas of experience.
10. The Scottish Government should revise the key desired outcomes from the
Single Outcome Agreement Guidance to reflect their climate change mitigation
and adaptation policy ambitions.
5. These examples then need to be communicated to leaders around the cities, in
all departments, to provide them with a better understanding of the challenge
ahead and the benefits to be realised. It is therefore recommended that the
Climate Change Leadership Programme is used as a vehicle to roll out a wider
engagement programme within the cities.
11. The complexity of the landscape around low carbon initiatives and policy in
Scotland was a key finding of the City Reports. The Scottish Government,
with partners, should review the number of low carbon initiatives and look
to consolidate and align programmes to provide greater clarity in the policy
landscape and practical impetus to delivery.
6. To demonstrate leadership on the integration of the low carbon economy, the
SCA’s three key programmes (Infrastructure, Low Carbon and Smart Cities)
should be integrated to demonstrate that these are issues which are inextricably
linked and complementary to one another.
Funding
12. While project implementation funds appear to be accessible, a project
development fund needs to be established within the SCA portfolio to kick start
initiatives which are in line with the SCA agenda that ensure low carbon is the
default position for infrastructure investment going forward.
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1. Context
Our climate is changing. The
evidence on this is convincing. In the
latest 5th Assessment Report, the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) made clear that urban
climate change risks are increasing5
(hereafter referred to as IPPC AR5). The
Global Commission on the Economy and
Climate (GCEC) notes that if the current
emission trend continues unchecked,
the resultant increase in average global
temperature could exceed 40C above
pre-industrial levels by the end of the
century (New Climate Economy (NCE)
report, 2014)6.
The ‘Stern Review on the Economics
of Climate Change’ in 20067, which
discussed the effect of climate change
on the world economy, stated that
climate change is the greatest and
widest-ranging market failure ever
seen, presenting an unprecedented
challenge for economies. The review’s
main conclusion was that the benefits of
strong, early action on climate change
far outweigh the costs of not acting.
While the costs of stabilising the climate
are significant, they are considered to be
manageable. Delay would be dangerous
and much more costly; resulting in an
average reduction in global per capita
growth of at least 5%.
Lord Stern’s most recent collaborative
research report (NCE, 2014) identifies
the choice that the world’s economies
now have: There no longer exists a
choice between ‘business as usual’ and
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climate action, but a choice between
alternative pathways of growth; one that
exacerbates climate risk (and thus has
a greater cost to future generations and
economies), and another that reduces it.
The report establishes that a low carbon
path can lead to as much prosperity
as a high carbon one, especially when
account is taken of its multiple other
benefits provided through low carbon
or adaption action; from greater energy
security to cleaner air and improved
health.
Box 1: Key Terms
For clarification the following key
terms which are used extensively
in this report are defined here, as
defined by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change:
Adaptation: Changing how we
operate in response to actual or
expected climatic changes or their
effects, which moderates harm or
exploits opportunities.
The GCEC coins the phrase ‘better
growth’. Better growth is inclusive,
with benefits being widely distributed;
it builds resilience, strengthens local
communities and increases their
economic freedom. Better growth is
an approach to stimulating economic
prosperity that improves quality of life
in a variety of ways while sustaining the
natural environment.
Resilience: the ability to absorb
disturbances while retaining the
same basic structure and ways of
functioning, the capacity for selforganisation, and the capacity to
adapt to stress and change.
Mitigation: An intervention to
reduce human induced impacts
on climate systems; it includes
strategies to reduce greenhouse
gas sources and emissions and
enhancing greenhouse gas sinks.
The scale and seriousness of the
challenges ahead should not be
underestimated, and will need to
be considered alongside the other
challenges faced by our societies;
including population growth, life
expectancy and ageing communities.
However, the opportunity cities have
to play a key role in responding to the
challenge is real and the rewards on
offer in Scotland are substantial. It is
with this backdrop that the Scottish
Cities Alliance (SCA) commissioned this
project.
1.1 The Project
This project was commissioned to
identify and assess the possible risks
and economic opportunities posed by a
changing climate in Scotland’s cities and
the drive towards a low carbon economy.
Both the need to adapt to the inevitable
consequences of climate change and to
mitigate further damage from increased
3
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions is
considered. The project aims to provide
high level and indicative evidence to
support the overall view that beneficial
economic and social outcomes can be
achieved by addressing climate change
issues. This reinforces the implicitly
understood case for climate change
action and establishes the context for
enhanced leadership on mitigation and
adaptation.
The project has been undertaken
in 3 stages. A high-level review of
the policy landscape and initial key
national stakeholder engagement was
undertaken in Stage 1 to refine the
methodology for the overall assessment
to be completed in the following stages.
Stage 2 resulted in the production
of seven City Reports. Each report
considers the nature of the city’s
economy, the climate projections by
the 2050s, the city’s vision and the
adaptation and mitigation activities.
Following a review and prioritisation
process, a number of priority actions
have been identified for cities to
progress and deliver. Figure 1 outlines
the process by which the priority actions
were identified. The resulting actions are
detailed in Section 3 for this report.
1. Context
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Figure 1 City Actions Prioritisation Process
Scosh Cies
(direct consultaon, publicaons including Carbon Management Plans,
Climate Change Declaraons and Sustainable Energy Acon Plans)
Previous Low
Carbon
Investment
Studies
Idenficaon of low
carbon acons
(600+ idenfied)
Grouping of
measures and
screening process
Internaonal
best pracce
Relevance to city: can
council control, guide
or influence?
Priorisaon: <20 measures per city
Key Consideraon Criteria: 4 categories
Affordability
Effecveness at reducing
carbon emissions
Jobs, supply chain and
training and development
Mulple benefits
Priority acons idenfied and explored in detail
A recent survey involving cities around the world
including Edinburgh and Aberdeen, on ‘how cities are
leading the next economy’ reported economic benefits
resulting from waste, energy, buildings and land use
planning programmes. These benefits included job
creation, increased innovation, economic growth, and
reduced unemployment (LSE Cities, 2013)8 . These
conclusions support the focus of the prioritisation
undertaken as part of the City Reports.
The City Reports illustrate that across all the cities
significant activities are already underway to advance
the low carbon agenda. While there is variation in the
specific areas of focus across the cities, it is clear
the emphasis is on mitigation and not on adaptation.
An explanation for this may be that the adaptation
agenda and its accompanying policy and programme
support is relatively new and less well understood in
comparison to the mitigation agenda. While adaptation
is recognised as a critical part of addressing the
challenges faced by climate change, actions which
deliver adaptation benefits are not always recognised
in the same way. That said the main policy drivers have
resulted in cities focussing their efforts on reducing
carbon emissions and improving energy efficiencies.
cities, as the relationship between investment into the
economy and the outputs that investment delivers for
that economy will change. Due to a lack of appropriate
economic models it is not possible to present this
analysis on an individual city basis.
It is also clear from the City Reports that while there are
a wide range of policy levers available to cities to help
them respond to climate change and simultaneously
deliver economic growth, there are opportunities being
missed because the scale of actions being undertaken
and the pace of their delivery is disconnected from the
urgency of the challenge. To some degree this reflects
the level of leadership driving change, which needs
to be stronger and more consistent. Section 3 of this
report provides more details on the prioritised actions
identified in the City Reports, alongside key issues and
barriers to more widespread adoption of low carbon
economic thinking and delivery.
1.2 The Policy Context
In order to deliver economic growth through addressing
climate change in the cities, there is a need to better
understand the complex interplay between economic,
social, environmental and cultural capital. This will
depend on the nature of the communities and the
economy, along with the sectors within it. Detailed
economic analysis, produced in association with
Strathclyde University, is presented in Section 4 of this
report demonstrating the value of this investment to the
Scottish economy. The value will vary across Scotland’s
4
Section 5 discusses the value of collaboration between
the cities, while Section 6 presents the project’s key
recommendations.
Engagement with a wide range of stakeholder groups
and the city authorities has been central to the
development of this project and forms a core element
to the overall recommendations presented within this
report. Further details on this engagement can be
found in the City Reports.
The issues posed by climate change are recognised
by the Scottish Government. The policy context within
which activity is occurring to identify the risks, address
the challenges and realise the opportunities is wide
and varied. While the key aspects of this policy context
are discussed below, it should be noted that the link
between climate action and economic development
is still not being made clearly and consistently across
local government and other public sector actors; further
actions are required to support this as discussed in
Section 6.
1. Context
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1.2.1 Climate Change (Scotland) Act, 2009
1.2.2 Economic Strategies
The key legislative foundation for action
on climate change in Scotland is the
Climate Change (Scotland) Act, 2009. As
shown in Figure 2, the Act creates the
statutory framework for GHG emissions
reductions in Scotland, premised on the
fact that reducing GHG emissions and
transitioning to a low carbon economy
will help create a more successful and
resilient country, with opportunities
for all to flourish, through increasing
sustainable economic growth. It places
legally binding reporting duties on
the Scottish Ministers and additional
climate change duties on Scottish public
The Government Economic Strategy10
reaffirms the commitments to deliver
faster sustainable economic growth
in Scotland. It recognises the value of
continuity as a fundamental principle and
identifies three areas of focus: capital
investment as key to economic recovery;
securing affordable finance to support
growth; and the provision of greater
economic security to combat uncertainty
facing households and businesses.
The Scottish Government identifies six
Strategic Priorities within the economic
strategy, as follows:
bodies, known as the Public Bodies
Climate Change Duties (PBCCDs).
PBCCD require public bodies to deliver
set emission reduction targets and
the statutory adaptation programme
in a manner they consider to be most
sustainable. Public bodies are also
required to provide evidence on how
they are responding to the mitigation and
adaptation agenda. Reporting against
the PBCCDs will become mandatory
in March 2015 for “major players”9
(approximately 150 of the 5,000 bodies)
covered by these duties in Scotland.
• Supporting Business Environment;
• Learning, Skills and Well-being;
• Effective Government;
• Transition to a Low Carbon Economy;
• Infrastructure, Development and
Place; and
•Equity.
Figure 2 The Climate Change (Scotland) Act
In line with these priorities, the Low
Carbon Economic Strategy11 (LCES) for
Scotland was produced in 2010, which
outlines the Scottish Government’s
strategic objectives and immediate
actions in transitioning to a low carbon
economy. Consistent with the conclusion
of the more recent New Climate
Economy report, the LCES recognised
that this transition is the “biggest
opportunity Scotland has had for
decades to realise long term sustainable
growth”. The strategy establishes strong
policy direction around the key low
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carbon economic opportunities and
seeks to strengthen business confidence
in exploiting these.
The proposed pathway for meeting
the Climate Change Act targets and
achieving the goals of the LCES is
outlined in the second Report on
Proposal and Policies (RPP2, 2013)12.
Each of the cities has a role in delivering
these proposals and policies locally.
1.2.3 Local Level Policy
Integral to the delivery of the climate
change targets is partnership working,
with Local Government authorities
performing a central role. Each city
signed the Scottish Climate Change
Declaration in 2007 which, in principle,
recognises their key role in the collective
responsibility of local authorities to
respond to the challenges of climate
change; albeit that the collective
reporting of action is inconsistent.
Another policy lever is the Single
Outcome Agreement (SOA). The
strength of the SOA, which is delivered
in partnership with Community Planning
Partners (CPPs), as drivers for action
at a local level, has been questioned in
a recent publication by the Sustainable
Scotland Network (SSN). SSN notes that
the SOAs examined did not fully reflect
climate change policy and that many of
the targets set out were limited to carbon
management of operations and therefore
not covering wider partnership work or
outcomes for the Community Planning
Partnership area13. As a result of this,
1. Context
along with the apparent disconnect
between climate action and economic
development, greater coherence in
policy and guidance at the city level
is required. Stronger links to national
policy objectives are essential, on the
basis that the behaviours and actions
of organisations are influenced by the
way in which they are measured and
assessed.
1.3 The Scottish Cities Alliance
The Scottish Cities Alliance (SCA) is
the collaboration of Scotland’s seven
cities – Aberdeen, Dundee, Edinburgh,
Glasgow, Inverness, Perth and Stirling
- the Scottish Government and the
Scottish Council for Development and
Industry (SCDI). The group is tasked with
the collective aim of: attracting external
investment; stimulating economic
activity; creating new jobs and business
opportunities; and driving stronger city
collaboration. Cities also offer a unique
environment in which to lead, innovate,
develop and scale–up new ideas and
processes.
The creation of the SCA represents
an attempt to promote Scotland’s
seven cities jointly as an economic
growth driver for Scotland and offers
the prospect of better aligning local
and central government approaches
to city policy. Additionally it offers a
strategic platform for integrating existing
economic strategies and planning policy
with a coherent appreciation of the
economic roles played by Scotland’s
principal city-regions14.
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Transitioning to a low carbon growth
pathway is a key element of SCAs
overall approach to creating growth. In
order to drive the agreed agenda for
the SCA, three key programmes have
been identified to deliver sustainable
economic growth. These are:
Infrastructure, Low Carbon and Smart
Cities. While this project (discussed
in Section 1.1) forms part of the Low
Carbon work stream, its outcomes relate
to all aspects of the SCA programmes.
The programmes serve to complement
each other and deliver economic
growth with infrastructure as the central
narrative.
support growth within each city and
also growth in other cities and their
regions. Application of a coordinated
and collaborative approach to delivering
these plans will serve to promote the
realisation of the goals they aim to
achieve.
The SCA has recently published a
prospectus which pulls together investor,
developer and occupier opportunities
across the seven Scottish cities. The
prospectus notes that the breadth
of opportunity available highlights
Scotland’s cities as modern 21st century
places to invest and do business. While
these plans contain developments which
are low carbon (e.g. green transport
infrastructure or port development for
the renewables sector), many of the
developments listed within the CIPs
could also contribute significantly
towards the low carbon and adaptation
ambitions of the cities through their
planning, design, construction and
ultimate operation. The development
of the investment prospectus offers
the opportunity to make explicit the
cities’ desire for low carbon, adaptive or
resilient infrastructure.
The infrastructure programme is centred
on the delivery of the City Investment
Plans (CIPs) and developments funded
through the Strategic Infrastructure
Fund (commonly referred to as The
City Deal). Each of the seven cities
has developed a CIP, with delivery
coordinated by the SCA. CIPs outline
the priority infrastructure investments for
the city, with the aim of providing clarity
on the opportunities available in the city
to investors. These plans also support
the understanding of the distinctiveness
of the cities with regard to attracting
investment. As noted in a recent report
by the Scottish Cities Knowledge Centre
(SCKC) the cities’ distinctiveness not
only avoids destructive competition
between the cities for investment,
but also allows economies of scale to
develop in niche industries15. Delivery
of the CIPs will therefore serve to
It is recognised that for the cities to
realise their ambitions in this regard,
they need to set very clear expectations
of their investment partners. If the
economic opportunities on offer are
to be maximised within and between
Scotland’s cities, and the nation
as a whole, the default position for
6
development must move away from
separating ‘developments’ from
‘low carbon developments’. It is of
paramount importance that the delivery
strategies for these developments make
‘low carbon and resilient’ responses
the default position, building in long
term adaptation requirements, as
well as mitigation. Clearly in order to
get to a position where low carbon
development is the default, the three
SCA key programmes (Infrastructure,
Low Carbon and Smart Cities) must be
closely aligned and work together to
communicate a common message to
city leaders.
2. Climate and Emissions Projections
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Ensuring that policy and guidance drives appropriate
behaviours is a challenge from both an adaptation
and mitigation perspective. The required changes
to behaviour need to be supported by awareness
and education programmes. To help achieve this,
recognition of the risks posed by climate change locally
by the cities and their businesses and partners is
required.
While in Scotland there may be a view that water and
food crises pose a lesser risk than elsewhere, there is
a need to recognise these global risks and Scotland’s
vulnerability to them, and ensure city societies and
economies are resilient to these risks where possible.
This recognition is supporting the drive towards
sustainable food production and consumption actions
across many cities in Scotland16.
Local risks also need to be viewed in the context of
national and global risks. The World Economic Forum
cites four of the top 10 global risks as directly climate
related. However, a changing climate also has the
potential to exacerbate the other risks presented in
Table 1 below, therefore climate change could be
regarded as a ‘threat multiplier’.
2.1.1 Climate Change Projections
Table 1: Ten Global Risks of Highest Concern in
2014
No.
Global Risk
1
Fiscal crises in key economies
2
Structurally high unemployment /underemployment
3
Water crises
4
Severe income disparity
5
Failure of climate change migaon and adaptaon
6
Greater incidence of extreme weather events
7
Global governance failure
8
Food crises
9
Failure of a major financial mechanism/instuon
10
Profound polical and social instability
Source: Global Risks Percepon Survey 2013-2014
The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment identifies
the climate risks for Scotland. As an important part
of this project however city-specific climate change
projections were developed to provide some locally
specific, albeit high level, evidence for the cities. These
projections were based on the UK Climate Projections
(UKCP09) and represent the most up-to-date
comprehensive suite of climate change projections
readily available for the UK. In a number of cases
additional information and understandings, published
after the release of UKCP09, are also referred to and
used to refine the projections for each city. Most
notable in this respect is the use of the IPCC AR5
to revise sea-level rise projections. The projections
developed were based on: a 2050s time horizon; the
UKCP09 medium emission scenario; and the central 50
percentile estimates from the probabilistic projections
in UKCP09. This is further discussed within the City
Reports.
It is highlighted that, while the study uses the UKCP09
medium emissions scenario, the results could be
viewed as underestimating the potential changes as
the most recent evidence suggests that the global
emissions trajectory is currently trending closer
to the high scenario. The selection of the medium
scenario serves to avoid the risk of criticism from
those wishing to detract from the value of the analysis
with accusations of alarmism, and also recognises
7
the uncertainty which exists in regard to the level of
emissions in the future. Therefore the projections in this
study by no means represent a worst case scenario.
This is further discussed within the City Reports and
technical appendices.
Even under the medium scenario the projections
show that climate change poses significant risks in
all of Scotland’s cities. Significant changes in risk are
projected for all cities by the 2050s, with flooding
and heat waves likely to cause the greatest additional
impacts. Flood severity is projected to increase
significantly putting a large number of residential and
commercial properties at additional risk. While heat
wave occurrences will go from close to negligible
probability presently, to a probability as high as 1 in 3
in Glasgow, or 1 in 4 in Perth and Stirling by the 2050s.
By contrast, the projected longer growing seasons in
some areas by the 2050s may lead to longer summers
and opportunities to increase the tourism sector in the
cities. It is also expected that the number of extreme
cold spells will reduce over time and that the number
of heating degree days17 will fall. Table 2 provides an
overview of these projections by city.
2. Climate and Emissions Projections
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Table 2 Climate Change Projections by City – Change by 2050s
In summary, this demonstrates that
there are a range of both significant
positive and negative changes which
need to be addressed within the Scottish
cities. It is also clear from the analysis
presented in the City Reports that there
is much commonality in the nature of the
risks across the seven cities. However
variation (in terms of the scale of the
risk and resource availability) also exists
which will serve to specify different
actions in some cases. The risks are
discussed in detail in each of the City
Reports, with an indication of the
economic costs or gains also provided
where it was possible to estimate these
in monetary terms.
Notes: The projected changes for fluvial flooding, pluvial flooding and storms and high winds are shown by giving the increased
severity of the ‘at present’ baseline event in the 2050s, expressed in terms of annual probability. For example, a 1:100 annual
probability pluvial flooding event in the 2050s is projected to have the equivalent severity to a 1:220 annual probability pluvial
event today.
8
Broader local collaboration with the
private sector would facilitate the sharing
of information and perceptions around
climate change risks. The Carbon
Disclosure Project (CDP, 2014)18, which
reports carbon emissions from public
and private institutes who report on
a voluntary basis19 notes that 31%
of the climate change risks reported
by businesses are not recognised by
cities20. Therefore greater partnership
and disclosure between public and
private risk can help cities identify
potential climate impacts on the broader
economy and the health and wellbeing
of its population.
2. Climate and Emissions Projections
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2.1.2 Emissions Projections
Alongside addressing the risks posed by the climate projections discussed above,
the Scottish cities are required under the Climate Change (Scotland) Act to act to
reduce carbon emissions. Figure 3 shows the latest Scottish emissions, adjusted
for trading in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). The trend of the graph
demonstrates the progress made so far and the challenge ahead set by the fixed
annual targets. If the gap between the current trend and the targets persists, there
will be a shortfall of between 4 and 6 million tCO2e per year in Scotland throughout
the 2020s. Scotland’s cities have a central role in delivering the carbon reductions
required to meet the targets set.
The IPCC note that climate change risks can be limited, however in order to do
so substantial, sustained reductions in GHG emissions are now required to limit
the average global surface temperature increase to 2oC. While the technological,
economic, social and institutional challenges of implementing such reductions are
sizable, the risks to our societies and economies from not addressing them are far
greater. Further delays will only increase the challenges faced.
Figure 3: Comparison of
Adjusted Emissions (using
1990-2012 Inventory) and
Fixed Annual Targets (based
on 1990-2008 Inventory).
Values in Mt CO2e
Source: Scottish Greenhouse
Gas Emissions 201221
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3. City Actions
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The City Reports produced as part of this project identify a number of actions which
should be taken forward by the cities in the short to medium term. As part of the
selection process the prioritised actions were tailored around solutions which the
cities had direct control over to ensure actions would be driven forward in a timely
manner. That is not to imply that climate change or adaptation activities cannot
be promoted as partnership actions with community and private sector partners
engaged to maximise the benefits achieved. The nature of the recommended actions
varied based on the outcomes of the prioritisation process within each city.
Assessment (CCRA), and sets out a programme for dealing with these risks. Figure
4 shows the Scottish Government model for adapting to climate change in Scotland
and recognises the necessity to respond to local needs. The climate change risk
projections discussed in Section 2 serve to provide supportive evidence to enable
cities to do this.
Scotland’s National Flood Risk Assessment22 estimated that one in 22 of all
residential properties and one in 13 of all commercial properties in Scotland are
at risk from flooding (coastal, fluvial and pluvial). The average annual damage
to homes, businesses and agriculture from all sources of flooding in Scotland is
estimated to be between £720m and £850m. In addition to the personal distress
and health impacts of flooding, this represents a significant impact on the Scottish
economy. As noted in Section 2, the scale, severity and frequency of major flood
events is projected to increase in all seven cites by the 2050s. Continued investment
to address these risks within the cities is vital and will serve to provide benefits to the
local community and businesses, supporting both the local and wider economy.
The actions highlighted below are taken directly from the City Reports and serve to
provide an ‘action plan’ for the cities. It must however be noted that these actions
should not be viewed in isolation to all of the other adaptation and mitigation activity
which is going on in the cities and that some of these actions are already being
progressed. See the City Reports for a wider discussion on this activity.
3.1 Adaptation
Many aspects of climate change and associated impacts will continue for centuries,
even if anthropogenic emissions are stopped, and as noted in the Stern Review
(2006) “adaptation will be crucial in reducing vulnerability to climate change and is
the only way to cope with the impacts that are inevitable”.
Figure 4: Model for Adapting to Climate Change in Scotland23
Adaptation is about building resilience to the unavoidable consequences of a
changing climate, addressing impacts which are already ‘locked in’ and unlikely
to be mitigated substantially or adequately by actions to reduce emissions in the
short to medium term. However, adaptation should not be considered solely about
the resilience of infrastructure to a changing environment. It is about adapting our
economies to ensure they recognise and reward behaviours which reduce risks and
increase resilience. It is also about adapting the way we factor risk into decision
making and financing mechanisms to drive expenditure and investment towards
more sustainable activities and infrastructure. This also includes adapting behaviours
to ultimately increase the synergetic benefits which could be realised from mitigation
actions being delivered at the same time. In responding to these adaptation needs,
both the risks and opportunities arising from climate change must be recognised
and planned for.
Analysis undertaken by the CDP (2014) shows that cities are delivering climate
adaptation actions which not only help reduce risk in their communities, but also
provide co-benefits of helping businesses thrive. Ultimately it would be expected
that as these co-benefits become more widely recognised they will serve to drive
behaviours in the private sector towards increased adaptation.
The Scottish Government’s Climate Change Adaptation Programme addresses
the impacts which are identified for Scotland in the UK Climate Change Risk
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3. City Actions
With regard to adaptation needs, while
a number of recommendations are
provided in the City Reports, none relate
to large scale activities or investment
programmes. This is largely as the detail
of these activities will be location specific
and could not be fully investigated due
to the high level and indicative nature
of this study. In addition, many of the
actions that might be promoted, such
as large scale flood risk management
projects, have either been completed
or are in progress. The cities are also
currently participating in the production
of Flood Risk Management Plans,
under the requirements of the Flood
Risk Management (Scotland) Act 2009.
These plans will provide consideration
of available and suitable adaptation
measures and, as such, it is not
appropriate to pre-empt the conclusions
of these detailed assessments. However,
it is important that these plans take into
account the projections presented in the
City Reports to ensure the outcomes
fully consider all types of flood risk in
the short to medium term. Longer time
horizons and the uncertainty of climate
change impact forecasts will require
embedded flexibility of response to
provide a level of insurance against
changing projections.
The actions identified within the City
Reports focus on ensuring that the
local policy landscape drives wide
scale action by all partners involved in
the city. The City Reports found that
while there is activity on the adaptation
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agenda in many cities, it has not seen
the same degree of focus within the local
authorities as the mitigation agenda has.
It is likely that some of the reasons for
this are a lack of:
•
•
•
•
• Building resilience through design,
through development of Sustainable
Building Standards and/or city
specific Supplementary Planning
Guidance;
• Blue Green Infrastructure26 and
Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems;
• Natural Flood Management; and
• Storm and high wind resilience review.
Regulatory drivers forcing action;
A full appreciation of the risks and
potential impacts;
Ongoing activity is not recognised as
adaptation; and
Accessible investment.
In addition to direct action in terms of
adaptation, there must be a greater
preparedness for emergencies and
disasters, with attention given to
maintaining ‘business continuity’ in the
city. Many of the cities have prepared
Local Climate Impact Profiles (LCLIP)
which review the impacts of severe
climate events in the city, disruption
to services, and impacts on the
economy. While it is recognised that
the purpose of these profiles was not to
develop emergency plans, there is an
opportunity to use the information they
contain to support the development of
such plans. The key issue is that the
various plans of relevance are reviewed
regularly and integrated into wider
council activities; and this integration
should improve awareness across the
council and partner organisations. These
activities support the objectives set out
in the Scottish Government’s Climate
Adaptation Plan.
This is not to say that adaptation is
forgotten, simply that the emphasis
for action is sometimes elsewhere. For
instance, not all cities have adaptation
strategies and plans, and where they
exist, the level of awareness of these by
council officers, and other council staff,
is low, possibly as a result of business
as usual actions not being recognised as
adaptation activity.
It is clear now that as cities strive to
provide an environment that is attractive
to businesses and residents alike, the
resilience of the city’s infrastructure
and transport networks is not only a
growing factor for cities’ economic
competitiveness24, but serves to reduce
the risk of even a single event having
a major or catastrophic impact on the
local economy25. In light of this, the City
Reports identify a range of adaptation
activities which should be promoted
and driven forward by the cities. These
include:
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3.2 Mitigation
As mentioned previously, if current global
emission trends continue unchecked,
the resultant increase in average global
temperature could exceed 4°C above
pre-industrial levels by the end of
the century. The benefits which early
mitigation efforts will make are noted
within the IPCC AR5. A very wide
range of possible actions to mitigate
this risk were considered within the
City Reporting process, in line with the
proposals set out in RPP2. These include
actions in relation to decarbonising
energy generation, developing
sustainable homes and communities,
supporting efficiencies in business and
industry and better managing transport
and waste. These actions also offer
adaptation benefits where they result in
greater local resilience. Many of these
can be delivered at the city level and are
therefore key opportunities for the SCA.
Within the City Reports a number of
priority actions are identified for each
of the cities to drive forward. These
actions focus on things which can
be controlled by the cities, as this
maximises the chances of action being
taken in the short to medium term.
The process by which these actions
were prioritised is identified in Section
1. While the resulting list may appear
to be ‘nothing new’ the prioritisation
process accounted for actions that are
currently ongoing or under consideration
within the cities and that are most
3. City Actions
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likely to deliver the greatest benefits
in terms of job creation and economic
development. The prioritisation process
served to emphasise that the cities
and their partners are on the right path,
albeit the scale and pace of application
needs to be raised substantially.
Figure 5 shows the actions that have
been prioritised for each of the seven
cities. The City Reports provide further
details on each of the actions including;
indicative costs, revenue and carbon
savings, and details of other benefits
realised. In addition to these prioritised
actions, the cities are making significant
progress on a number of other fronts.
Further details can be found within the
individual City Reports.
*Note that the carbon saving values
shown exclude the Energy from
Waste project in Aberdeen and the
Hydrogen Hub Development project
in Perth. Carbon savings have not
been estimated for these two projects.
The total estimated investment
requirement for the prioritised actions
over a period of 5-10 years is £340
million. The payback periods of these
actions will vary but all deliver positive
net present values over a 20 year
appraisal period. To put this level of
investment in context, this is 8% of
the total Local Authority budget for
2011/2012 in the seven cities or 15% of
what was spent on capital expenditure
in 2010/2011 by the seven Local
Authorities. The benefits which could
be provided through this investment are
detailed in Section 4.
Figure 5: Prioritised Mitigation Actions
and Investment Needs
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3. City Actions
The three prioritised actions identified in
the City Reports that apply in multiple
cities are:
• a programme for replacement of
streetlights to LED;
• a programme for the retrofit of energy
efficiency measures in public
buildings, beginning with the Council
stock; and
• the development of district heating
schemes.
The other actions are not prioritised
across multiple cities and so therefore
are not included explicitly in the
discussion here.
3.2.1 LED Street lighting programme
The City Reports recommend that the
cities begin a full scale programme of
replacement for their street lighting,
expanding on the pilot programmes
completed or underway in some of the
cities. This was recommended as it will
deliver:
•
•
•
large scale energy savings - reducing
the cities’ energy bills and long term
maintenance costs but also avoiding
the need to fund energy prices rises in
the future;
carbon emissions reductions; and
jobs and training opportunities and
therefore significant economic
benefits within each city and for
Scotland overall.
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Collaboration and co-ordination is
currently facilitating the development of
a central procurement vehicle for LEDs
in Scotland. To date this collaboration
has supported delivery of a Street
Lighting Design Services and a Street
Lighting Materials Framework under
Scotland Excel and is working towards
another framework for Installation and
Maintenance by March 2015. These
frameworks will deliver economies
of scale in terms of overall costs
and, if designed around the delivery
of geographically specific ‘minicompetitions’, will allow access to both
small and medium enterprises (SMEs)
and larger companies in the supply
chain. Scottish Futures Trust (SFT)
estimate that a central procurement
vehicle could deliver a 25% saving on
costs27, which also allows a tailored
approach to be delivered for each city
based on its own needs and desires.
Such a programme of action also
presents the opportunity to investigate
and engage with industry on linking to
SMART technologies; this opportunity
is increased significantly under a
collaborative approach. The possibility
exists to select products that provide
future flexibility and are ‘smart control
ready’. It is also reported that this
can have further enabling benefits
as ‘smart street lighting systems can
provide a backbone for other smart city
applications’28.
Potential funding sources and delivery
support include, but are not limited to:
• A £2 million fund provided
by the Scottish Government to
Local Authorities to carry out
condition surveys;
• Additional support is available through
Resource Efficient Scotland (RES) for
condition surveys, project
management and design services;
• The Green Investment Bank (GIB)
provides Green Loans for street
lighting conversion projects. They also
provide starter loans, at the same
rate as the Public Works Loans Board
(PWLB), to facilitate the feasibility
stage of the process; and
• There is the opportunity for private
sector co-investment where ‘smart’
function is provided, as many large
telecommunications operators see
this as a way to invest in their
networks.
The market certainty a cities (or panScotland) initiative is expected to
deliver could allow some manufacturing
companies to expect requirements to
increase capacity, leverage investment
partner relationships or possibly open
news arms of business to deliver into
this market. The development of the
manufacturing sector across Scotland
has significant associated benefits,
given its decline in recent years both in
absolute terms and as a percentage of
the UK manufacturing industry.
13
3.2.2 Energy efficiency retrofitting
Notwithstanding the requirements set
out in the Climate Change (Scotland)
Act section 63 which will ultimately
mandate physical energy performance
improvements to existing non-domestic
buildings by late 2015, there are
significant gains to be had through
the retrofitting of the non-domestic
building stock. This programme would
provide a level of protection to councils
from further energy price rises. It
would also provide direct revenue and
carbon savings in the short to medium
term. It would serve to demonstrate
the leadership of the council to other
partners in the cities and begin to set an
example. While within the City Reports
the focus was placed on rolling out a
programme of activity within the council
owned stock, a successful programme
could support greater collaboration and
sharing amongst other public bodies
also in the short term.
A retrofit programme would include a
range of measures; each with their own
costs and benefits profile. While tackling
the low hanging fruit will deliver carbon
and energy savings, it will not support
the significant economic benefits
which could be realised through more
ambitious action. In order to provide
these, investible packaging-up of actions
will be required. This will essentially
allow delivery of some measures which
have longer payback periods, but could
deliver significantly greater savings or
benefits over the longer term.
3. City Actions
Retrofitting may also provide adaptation
and resilience benefits, enabling better
temperature regulation in both summer
and winter. Retrofitting energy efficiency
measure in buildings also presents an
opportunity to consider resilience to
other climatic threats. Advanced control
and monitoring systems could be
deployed in buildings at the same time
which offer ‘smart cities’ opportunities.
Scotland’s cities spend £71 million
a year on energy in Local Authority
owned buildings29. Given energy price
forecasts, it is expected that these
costs will continue to rise year on year.
Based on the most recent Department
of Energy and Climate Change (DECC)
estimates this could increase to £105
million by 2030 – representing a 48%
rise30. Alongside such an increase,
Local Authority budgets are expected
to remain limited for the foreseeable
future, putting growing pressure on
available resources. The investment
identified in the City Reports could
realise revenue savings of £7m per year.
This is in addition to the other significant
economic benefits discussed in Section
4.
Information on the funding support
available to the cities to drive this
programme is provided below and sits
alongside mechanisms the cities might
regularly use such as the PWLB:
• SFT note that private finance remains
a viable option for raising funding for
energy efficiency measures31;
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• The GIB has products which support
the delivery of energy efficiency
retrofit projects. The cities could also
work with the GIB or similar
investors to develop bespoke funding
mechanisms which adequately reward
all parties;
• The £50m Scottish Partnership
for Regeneration in Urban Centres
(SPRUCE) Fund supports regeneration
and energy efficiency projects within
targeted areas of Scotland; this
includes Dundee, Edinburgh and
Glasgow;
• The Central Energy Efficiency Fund
(CEEF); and
• Salix Finance Ltd.
Scotland’s climate change targets33.
The value district heating can provide
in terms of reducing carbon footprints
and costs to households and businesses
is recognised in Scotland34. Evidence
from Sweden (Persson et. al., 2014)35
suggests that whilst collaboration on
district heat is relatively rare, there
is significant benefit to industry and
neighbouring communities. Working
further to share information can be
productive, although effort is required
to make this work. The benefits can be
significant, and span social, economic
and environmental aspects, including
fuel poverty reduction, revenue savings
and lower emissions levels. There are
also safety benefits of reduced local
gas infrastructure which should be
considered. A waste product (heat) for
one, becomes a low carbon resource
(heating) for others.
3.2.3 District heating
Over 50% of the energy consumed
in Scotland is used for heating and
cooling32. The Scottish Government’s
Draft Heat Generation Policy Statement
(HGPS) sets out how low carbon heat
can reach more households, businesses
and communities. It also sets out a
clear framework for investment in the
future of heat in Scotland. To deliver this
there is a need to reduce the amount of
energy used for heat, diversify sources
of heat, provide increased security of
heat supply, greater local control and
reduce the pressure on household
energy bills. The HGPS sets a target for
district heating in Scotland of 40,000
homes by 2020; with the aim of ensuring
that district heating schemes make
a significant contribution to meeting
The challenges involved with making
district heating work should not be
underestimated however. Aberdeen
Heat and Power have been engaged
in developing this for many years and
yet the learning and experience they
hold has not resulted in greater national
uptake. Undertaking a district heating
scheme is a big investment and will
likely require several funding streams
and must be underpinned by a robust
business model. A number of potential
funding sources are defined below:
• District Heating Loan Fund has been
increased by over £4 million, making a
14
total of £8 million available over the
two years 2014 to 201636;
• The Warm Homes Fund is a £50
million initiative from the Scottish
Government. This fund provides
development grants of up to £10k
for feasibility studies and options
appraisals; grants up to £20k for
strategic development work (such
as multi-site developments); and up
to £5 million unsecured loans for
capital measures; and
• There is also financial support from
schemes such as the Renewable
Energy Investment Fund (REIF) and
GIB.
3.3 Action Delivery
In order to deliver actions under the
adaptation or mitigation agendas it
is necessary to ensure the process
is supportive of the overall aims, the
right stakeholders are engaged at the
right time in that process, barriers are
identified and enablers put in place to
allow the cities to increase the pace and
scale of delivery.
3.3.1 The Process
The identification and management
of risk is critical to faster delivery of
projects. Inconsistencies in how risks are
identified and managed across different
locations and by different organisations
does nothing to allow a collective
approach to be taken to address it,
nor does it facilitate the creation of
innovative financial products which
3. City Actions
could open up investment opportunities
to those where the current risk profile
is unacceptable from investment
perspectives.
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Figure 6: Project and Finance Pathway
3.3.2 Stakeholders
Successful and faster delivery of projects
will require engagement with a range of
stakeholders at the varying stages in the
development process. While these vary
by project or programme, they can be
summarised as follows:
The SCA and partners can improve how
they approach risk by taking steps such
as opening more and stronger lines of
communication with each other to build
trust, systematically learning from the
experience of others, and finding ways
to incentivise long term thinking. In
addition such collaboration would serve
to ensure that developments were easier
to progress as they would be better
established and planned.
•
•
•
•
The stages of project planning, as
outlined in Figure 6 should be viewed
as iterative. These are mapped onto
the key stages of developing a funding
strategy, as to ensure more projects
are investment ready sooner it is vital
that the funding strategy is developed
alongside the technical aspects of the
project. It may also be necessary to
develop procurement strategies as the
project or programme progresses.
Internal city departments and leaders;
- Economic Development
-Finance
-Estates
-Transport
Users;
- Building occupants
-Communities
-Households
- Local businesses
Other public sector bodies;
- Heat Network Partnership37
- Resource Efficient Scotland (RES)
- Scottish Enterprise
-SFT
- Skills Development Scotland
Industry groups and supply chain
partners; and
• Investors
- GIB and other banks
- Private sector investors
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3. City Actions
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3.3.3 Barriers
A number of barriers to action have
been identified though consultation.
Irrespective of the actions being
discussed, common themes could be
identified. These are listed below.
•
The Centre for Climate Change
Economics and Policy (2012) note
that the perception that climate
change is not part of the Local
Authorities core business, or that
climate change is a lower priority
than other areas of activity is acting
as a barrier. The difficulty in
recognising the clear economic and
financial benefits of greater and faster
action comes down largely to a lack of
clear and consistent leadership;
however one coupled with the
ongoing challenge of limited capital
budgets and competing priorities.
•
A significant training and awareness
gap exists; both internally within the
Local Authority, where the
identification of internal resources
to instigate schemes and a lack of
technical knowledge act as a barrier38,
and within the wider supply chain
where the required skills are not
sufficiently developed.
•
In some cases the lack of financial or
economic analysis and business case
development expertise available to
staff form a barrier to progress.
This links directly to a perceived
lack of available funding or access to
that funding, and to the current gap in
development funding which
commonly provides access to such
experienced practitioners.
•
Existing or required contractual
relationships can act as barriers to
progress, however this is heavily
linked to the capability gaps noted
above. It also links to the need for
greater appreciation of risk and
reward profiles as noted above,
which could serve to identify
alternative mechanisms under which
to operate.
3.3.4 Enablers
As with the barriers discussed above, a
number of enablers have been identified.
In some cases significant progress is
being made already.
support activity across the public,
private and community sectors
through the creation of a wider Project
Development Unit. This programme
will provide development feasibility
support and due diligence to facilitate
an increased number of projects being
brought to investor readiness stage.
•
Frameworks to facilitate easy
engagement of contractors and other
supply chain partners.
SFT are making significant progress
on this for both street lighting
and non-domestic energy efficiency
retrofitting programmes.
•
Local Authority specific guidance on
key issues.
The SFT has commissioned legal
guidance on the powers of Scottish
public bodies to generate or procure
heat and electricity supplies, and the
constraints on these powers39. They
have also commissioned guidance
to provide a high level overview of
the range of commercial structures
for implementing energy efficiency
measures across the public sector in
Scotland, and their resulting
accounting and budgetary impacts40.
They also plan to provide guidance
around delivery structures, in
particular the treatment of ‘control
and risk’, with regards to district
heating development.
•
Strong, consistent leadership.
Progress is being made through
the development of the Public Sector
Climate Leaders Forum (PSCLF)
and the Climate Change Leadership
Programme (CCLP) which is an
engagement programme being rolled
out by Scottish Government.
• Ownership, empowerment and focus
from key staff within the cities.
• Stronger links between national policy
goals and local delivery levers and
metrics.
Making the Public Bodies Climate
Change Duties mandatory in 2015
for the most significant contributors,
which include the city local
authorities, is expected to drive faster
and further action in this regard.
Greater links are still however
required.
•
16
Increased availability of development
funding or resource to support
project development.
The Scottish Government aims
to put in place a new Low Carbon
Infrastructure Transition Programme
(LCITP). It will bring together
individual work streams to deliver one
integrated programme of project
4. The Value of Investment
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“The prize before us is huge. We can build a strong, inclusive and resilient global economy which can
also avoid dangerous climate change. But the time for decision is now.” (Gurria and Stern, 2014)
41
It is noted within the IPCC AR5 that the
requirement to act to address climate
change is becoming more critical than
ever before. It is clear that investment
in mitigation and adaptation actions
not only helps address climate change
challenges42, but brings wider benefits.
These include social and environmental
benefits associated with; improvements
in air quality and knock on health
benefits, and reduction in fuel costs
to households. While these are vital
co-benefits of action, it is the creation
of economic growth and employment
opportunities which are the focus of
the discussion which follows here.
Considerations around the wider
benefits of adapting to climate change
and transitioning toward a low carbon
economy are contained within the City
Reports.
There appears also to be a (mis)
conception by some that addressing
climate change action comes at a
cost to the economy in the short to
medium term. Whilst this might reflect
a UK experience or prejudice, there is
evidence to the contrary: Stockholm,
with its coordinated urban growth model,
reduced emissions by 35% from 1993
to 2010 at the same time as growing its
economy by 41% (NCE, 2014). Once the
multiple benefits of actions to reduce
emission or adapt to a changing climate
are taken into consideration, many of the
perceived net costs can be reduced or
eliminated.
Figure 7 Low Carbon Investment Opportunity
The analysis presented here is provided
to explain how public expenditure or
investment has positive consequences
for the economy and employment;
through the application of Input Output
(IO) analysis which allows these impacts
to be modelled. IO analysis traces
expenditure through an economy based
on the supply chain linkages which
exist, to identify how spending in one
sector can generate value elsewhere
in the economy. Consideration is given
to the sectors where investments
might be made (such as construction,
architectural and engineering services,
public administration etc.)43 and on
how much of that investment could be
retained within the Scottish economy.
It serves to support decision makers
in understanding the implications of
their investment in the economy and
how different sectors will be impacted.
This is a vital part of the ‘story’ around
adaptation and mitigation investment, as
it demonstrates the value of investment
which is appropriately targeted.
It is not possible to estimate the proportion of these benefits which might be realised
within each of Scotland’s seven cities due to IO models not being available for each
city, as would be required. It is however reasonable to assume that if the cities were
to drive this investment, a significant proportion of the gains would also be realised
within the cities and their regions, especially if a coordinated approach to delivery
was applied where each of the cities played to their strengths.
An investment of 1% (£1.3 billion) of
Scotland’s Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) in adaptation and mitigation
actions through a step change
programme could be expected to
generate substantial economic
benefits, as shown in Figure 744,45.
This level of investment is broadly equivalent to the Scottish Government’s 2013
budget for climate change mitigation (£1.14billion) over a programme of three years.
The LCES notes that the Low Carbon Environmental Goods and Services market
in Scotland is worth about £8.8 billion per annum. It predicted this market will grow
to around £12 billion by 2016. A 1% investment once (or over a short number of
years) to support the growth and development of a sector worth around 10% of the
economy clearly makes good economic sense. Sustaining such growth over the
longer term may require further investment.
17
4. The Value of Investment
As further evidence, it is estimated that around
2.3% of GDP could be saved from straightforward
resource efficiency measures, which could translate
into £2.9billion in savings to the Scottish Economy
if implemented (RPP2, 2013). The size of the prize
is therefore substantial; especially given resource
efficiency is just one of a wide range of levers which
are available and could be promoted more within
Scotland’s cities.
The benefits which could be realised by such an
investment commitment would increase if more of
the investment could be retained in Scotland, through
further development of specific supply chains46. For
instance, insulated pipelines required for district
heating schemes are not currently produced in
Scotland and have to be imported47. Creating market
certainty with regards the projected investments into
district heating by the cities could serve to create
a local supply chain for these; either through new
suppliers joining the market or inward investment
coming from existing suppliers setting up in Scotland.
Clear messages in terms of investment programmes
are required in order to deliver maximum direct and
co-benefits and to move the seven cities along on the
low carbon transition pathway.
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Supply Chain Development: The development of
a supply chain based on low carbon infrastructure
demand is an area where Scottish Enterprise has
been providing a positive contribution. Scottish
Enterprise work in supporting the development of
the offshore wind industry included the following
aspects:
•
Awareness and advice; dissemination of market
opportunity reports; a free enquiry service
whereby companies can ask specific questions
and receive a brief report back.
•
Business development: business development
events; ‘Meet the Buyer’ workshops on
a number of themes, driven by the project
developers and Tier 1 suppliers; making
connections for the supply chain companies into
all other relevant SE support e.g. SMAS; SMART
Grants; SDI Overseas Event support; Smart
Exporter; Global Scots, etc.
•
Innovation support: Offshore Wind Expert
Support (OWES) - initially 2 days of consultancy
time to support companies. In addition, for larger
organisation/or multi division companies they
can offer up to 5 days of OWES; additional
OWES for companies who identify a particularly
innovative or niche market offering; and close
partnership working with the Offshore Wind
Catapult to pass on potential innovative
companies where the Catapult can offer more in
depth specialist support.
18
However it is important to note that the wider benefits
which could be delivered under a low carbon pathway
are largely invisible in metrics such as GDP and Gross
Value Added (GVA). In a sense the quality of this growth
is not explicit. Decision makers need better tools to
evaluate the impacts of specific policies and actions.
Considering the specific set of prioritised actions
outlined in the City Reports (presented in Section 3),
the investment needed to realise these is estimated
to be approximately £340 million over a 5 -10 year
programme48. As already outlined, the actions in this
programme are wide and varied. They include relatively
straightforward and scalable actions such as the
conversation of streetlights to LEDs and the retrofitting
of buildings to improve energy efficiency, to very locally
specific actions such as district heating schemes and
energy from waste developments. Figure 8 shows
the significant benefits which such investment could
deliver in Scotland, and assuming it is appropriately
targeted at low carbon and adaptation actions, the
jobs created or supported could be considered ‘green’
jobs within these sectors. There is an important point
here in how one ascribes the low carbon or green term
to employment. It is acknowledged as a challenge
and one which many are trying to address through
research into the direct employment associated with
sustainability in its broadest terms.
4. The Value of Investment
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Figure 8: Priority Action Investment Value
The employment benefits of such investment would create opportunities for a
varitery of sectors. Figure 9 below shows how these jobs might be distributed.
Figure 9: Employment by Sector
Each of the actions contribute to this overall picture to a different extent. The outputs
of the IO analysis identified the economic contribution of each; presented in Table 3
below.
19
5. Collaborative Action
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Table 3: Economic Value of Prioritised Actions
Investment
expectation
(m)
Economic
Outputs
(m)
Gross Value
Added
(m)
Employment4
(FTE)
LED Street lighting1
£1083
£200
£75
1,500
Building energy efficiency retrofit2
£87.6
£239
£90
1,760
District heating
£36
£74.6
£27.3
530
Energy from waste
£85
£124
£44
810
Hydrogen hub development
20
34
12
210
Electric car expansion
£0.62
£0.17
£0.05
1
Cycling infrastructure
2.5
7.45
2.7
55
1 Revenue savings of £11m/yr and carbon savings of 21ktCO2 are projected.
2 Revenue savings of £7.1m/yr and carbon savings of 33ktCO2 are projected.
3 Developed based on a given cost per lamp replaced; which has since been seen to reduce significantly, possibly by 40%.
4 Figures rounded to the nearest 5.
The IO analysis presented above demonstrates the scale of the economic benefits which are available should the cities act to
implement actions now. It does not attempt to include the wider co-benefits which such investments would also be expected to deliver.
20
5. Collaborative Action
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‘Coming together is a beginning; keeping together is progress; working together is success’ Henry Ford
The vision each city has set out aligns
with the aims of the SCA: to achieve
‘better growth’. In order to deliver this
inclusive growth, the leadership of
the cities need to acknowledge the
relationships between all the activities
they undertake or promote as a city
and streamline their decision making
process to galvanise the potential
opportunities. This includes the need to
recognise the importance of addressing
climate change, and that by acting
sooner it better supports growth and
resilience for the future. The information
contained within this report is provided
to demonstrate this.
By taking a collaborative approach to
delivering this growth, the cities will be
afforded a range of additional benefits
and networks which may not be realised
through singular action. Collaboration
and coordination therefore are key
aspects of delivering better growth.
As the seven cities vary in nature,
the benefits of a collaborative and
coordinated approach would be
expected to respond appropriately.
That said there are a number of benefits
which have been recognised through
this project that have across the
board significance. They fall into two
broad categories: Political and SocioEconomic.
Political
• Consistency in leadership messages;
• Relationship development;
• Community and stakeholder
engagement;
• Ability to be strategic and align city
goals rather than directly compete;
and
• Ability to align large programmes with
skills and training.
neighbouring cities, other public
organisations and the private sector
can lead to scattered development,
increasing the cost of infrastructure
and public service delivery, and lower
confidence in the market in terms of
supply chain development49. Better
coordination and collaboration can
alleviate these problems; sharing
knowledge, expertise and data to
support faster and greater action on the
ground. This would ultimately increase
efficiency, both from a cost and an
energy perspective.
Socio-Economic
• Scale, which in turn drives:
- Supply chain growth,
- Investor confidence, and
- Purchasing efficiencies.
• Development of coherent and
connected infrastructure.
• Development of innovative financing
mechanisms.
• Shared learning and expertise.
• Efficiencies in administration, shared
resources; e.g. procurement.
It is clear from the wide range of
stakeholders engaged in this work that
the barriers in Scotland do not derive
from a lack of capital, but rather a lack of
development capital to get projects off
the ground. This combined with a lack of
expertise to develop projects with riskreward profiles which attract investors, is
limiting action. A report by the Centre for
Climate Change Economics and Policy50,
noted that while local authorities,
virtually universally, see the availability of
finance as the most significant obstacle,
the investment community do not hold
the same view. This was reinforced by
consultees as part of this current project.
Collaboration would support greater
awareness of the available solutions
to this challenge through the city
leadership.
Scotland’s cities have shared
infrastructure including transport and
utilities networks. It is an integrated
‘systems’ approach that is required
to manage and adapt, to maximise
opportunities and minimise costs
associated with climate change.
Managing this infrastructure requires
collaboration, planning and sharing
of information between all parties
involved. Lack of coordination between
21
In this regard development of innovative
financing mechanisms or arrangements
that better match the characteristics of
low-carbon assets can be developed.
While low carbon infrastructure,
particularly in energy supply, buildings
and transport, is crucial in reducing
carbon emissions trajectories, access to
financing is limiting the ability to realise
these projects (NCE, 2014). As noted
above and supported by the NCE report,
it is not about a shortage of capital in
the economy, but rather a lack of public
financing capacity, combined with
policies and regulation that make them
unduly high–risk for private investors.
Collaboration should not be considered
to be limited to the city local authorities.
If the SCA are to succeed in driving
better growth in the cities through
adaptation and mitigations actions, there
is a real need for the local authorities
to ensure they engage with the most
appropriate group of stakeholders given
the challenge at hand. A key part of
the value of collaboration in this regard
relates to their ability to work together
to communicate to the government the
importance of providing a stable and
supportive long-term policy framework
that enables them to invest with
confidence51.
The value of a collaborative approach
is especially evident around the
development of procurement vehicles
or mechanisms which serve to support
local and Scottish supply chains.
5. Collaborative Action
A nationally accessible procurement
vehicle will serve to reduce transaction
costs for each city, provide saving by
driving down costs from those on such a
framework, and provide the opportunity
to design in support for SMEs and
other local companies to engage in
this programme, thereby maximising
the gains realised locally and within
Scotland. The Scottish Government is
working with SFT to facilitate investment
in Non Domestic Energy Efficiency, and
two frameworks are now in place under
Scotland Excel with a third available
from March 2015 to support the
installation of low carbon street lighting
in Scotland. These frameworks are
expected to deliver 15%-30% saving,
demonstrating the value collaboration
in driving down the cost of delivery and
thereby increasing the returns which can
be expected.
Collaboration could also provide for clear
and consistent messages to be given to
the market; both in terms of commitment
to action and likely investment, and in
relation of the expectations the cities
have of development partners. Clear
and widespread messaging will drive
industry led change and support training
and skills development associated with
certain measures or technologies.
5.2 A ‘Network’ Based Approach
There is no evidence of a formal city
based collaboration delivering climate
change actions within one country to
draw on. However, the benefits which
could be realised through such an
approach could drive both the cities’
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economies and Scotland’s economy
further along the low carbon pathway to
delivering ‘better growth’. The success
of the C40 Climate Leadership Group52
in delivering action on the ground, both
in terms of adaptation and mitigation,
is testimony to what can be achieved
through collaborative actions. C40 is a
global network of large cities, including
London as a founding member, taking
action to address climate change by
developing and implementing policies
and programmes that generate
measurable reductions in both emissions
and climate risks. The diversity of the
policy landscapes, assets, climate
risks and national political support
within these member cities is extensive;
however, they manage to work together
in partnership towards the group’s
overall goal. They do this through the
use of ‘networks’. These are active
working groups of C40 cities with
commonly identified opportunities,
interests and/or priorities. Networks
are supported by C40 staff to facilitate
knowledge transfer and peer-to-peer
exchange, as well as to provide direct
support to cities developing local
policies, programmes or projects, often
through managed partnerships.
Scotland has a number of networks or
partnerships working towards greater
realisation of climate change driven
actions across Scotland. By way of
example, these include;
•
society work together to fully achieve
the targets set out in the Climate
Change Act. This group has 5
subgroups, working on transport,
behaviour change research, built
environment, finance, and innovation;
•
The Heat Network Partnership for
Scotland includes SFT, Energy
Savings Trust, Scottish Enterprise,
Resource Efficient Scotland and
Stratego. The Stratego project,
funded by Intelligent Energy Europe
and the Scottish Government, is
set up to accelerate district heating
uptake in countries across Europe.
The partnership aims to aid the
development of effective heating and
cooling plans and build capacities to
deliver district heating on the ground
in Scotland; and
•
Adaptation Scotland is bringing
together organisations, businesses
and communities across Scotland to
identify shared adaptation challenges
and take forward opportunities to
work together to adapt. Their existing
partnership initiatives are: Climate
Ready Clyde; Planning Together;
and Climate Ready Biosphere. They
are however working with
stakeholders to identify a series of
new adaptation partnership initiatives.
Considering the needs of the cities
specifically, the overall city partnership
already exists in the SCA. It is clear that
to deliver the maximum benefits both
locally and nationally against its growth
aspiration, the SCA will need to grow
and develop and become a sustainable
The 2020 Climate Group has 140
members from 100 organisations
and businesses. Their aim is to ensure
that all sectors of the economy and
22
cities partnership. A possible model
could be that applied by the C40 group,
where SCA staff explicitly act as the
glue that supports collaborative efforts
between the cities and work with other
partners such as the PSCLF and the
partnerships outlined above. Under such
an approach, the Alliance becomes the
8th beneficiary of action, where the sum
of the whole is greater than the sum of
the parts.
For this approach to truly deliver action
on climate change there must however
be recognition within each of the cities
that all development should be both
‘low carbon’ and ‘resilient’ development,
to ensure that the maximum gains can
be realised. Such a model would cover
actions being driven under all of the
SCAs programme areas (Infrastructure,
Low Carbon and Smart Cities) and serve
to link these to maximum value.
So while the use of networks of
stakeholders to drive activities is not
new, making a step change with the
development of city specific ‘project
delivery networks’ by SCA could be
used to drive forward specific activities,
where all cities participating in a given
programme and partners are included.
Such networks would support the
development of procurement and
funding strategies alongside the
development of the individual projects.
Offering such a flexible and fluid
approach would serve to allow the cities
to engage on topics of importance to
each of them, to share their experience
with others and to play to their
strengths53.
6. Recommendations
The Scottish Government is committed to supporting
the transition to a low carbon Scottish economy, to
seizing business opportunities and to building a better
quality of life. The Scottish Government’s Low Carbon
Economic Strategy is an integral part of its overall
Economic Strategy designed to secure sustainable
economic growth, and is a key component of the
broader approach to meeting Scotland’s climate
change targets. A low carbon economy will improve the
resilience of the economy in a changing climate with
predicted greater extremes in weather, unpredictable
commodity and energy prices, and environmental
resource constraints in the future.
In undertaking this study there are a number of areas
identified for action and a number of common areas
which could be strengthened to enhance the pace
and scale of delivery of climate change adaptation
and mitigation projects and therefore better economic
growth. The following recommendations are made.
6.1 Leadership
Consistent and visible leadership on the Low Carbon
Economy is currently lacking. The growth agendas
set by the Scottish cities and the application of the
Government’s Low Carbon Economic Strategy and
its corresponding climate change mitigation and
adaptation ambitions are disconnected.
There needs to be an unequivocal and explanatory
policy statement from the SCA on how they see the
cities specifically addressing low carbon growth:
this will show strong leadership and align divergent
agendas. The SCA should also develop a minimum
set of standards for development within the cities,
to provide consistent and clear expectations of their
investment and development partners.
scottishcitiesalliance
The SCA should establish a Low Carbon Economic
Strategy for the cities, recognising each city’s
distinctiveness which transparently demonstrates how
the interrelated agendas and the opportunities raised in
RPP2 are to be advanced. Supporting this and to clarify
what low carbon investment looks like, there is also a
need for good practice examples which demonstrate
how low carbon growth can be achieved in practical
terms and demonstrating the win-win nature of such
developments. These should be developed by each
city linked to their areas of experience. These examples
then need to be communicated to leaders around the
cities, in all departments, to provide them with a better
understanding of the challenge ahead and the benefits
to be realised. It is therefore recommended that the
Climate Change Leadership Programme is used as
a vehicle to roll out a wider engagement programme
within the cities.
To demonstrate leadership on the integration of the
low carbon economy, the SCA’s three key programmes
(Infrastructure, Low Carbon and Smart Cities) should
be integrated to demonstrate that these are issues
which are inextricably linked and complementary to
one another.
6.2 Capacity
The SCA should employ resources to develop city
specific ‘project delivery networks’ to drive forward
prioritised activities within an agreed and coordinated
programme. Such networks would support the
development of procurement and funding strategies
if required, alongside the development and delivery
of the individual projects. Offering a flexible and fluid
approach to collaboration would serve to allow the
cities to engage on topics of importance to each of
them, to share their experience with others and to play
to their strengths.
23
To ensure good practice and expertise is leveraged
to its full extent, the SCA should develop a
secondment programme whereby key individuals
(from local authorities, other public bodies, business
or communities) who have demonstrated strong
delivery in elements of the low carbon economy can
be seconded within the SCA members and develop
partnerships to accelerate delivery and the scale and
pace of responses to climate change.
6.3 Policy
The Scottish Government should ensure that consistent
expectations are set of public bodies considered major
players under the soon to be mandatory Public Bodies
Climate Change Duties. Support must also be provided
to ensure that change and progress is driven by these
duties rather than just providing a reporting mechanism
for business as usual.
The Scottish Government should revise the key
desired outcomes from the Single Outcome Agreement
Guidance to reflect their climate change mitigation and
adaptation policy ambitions.
One of the key findings of the City Reports was around
the complexity of the low carbon initiative and policy
landscape. The Scottish Government, with partners,
should review the number of low carbon initiatives and
look to consolidate and align programmes to provide
greater clarity in the policy landscape and practical
impetus to delivery.
6.4 Funding
While project implementation funds appear to be
accessible, a project development fund needs to
be established within the SCA portfolio to kick start
initiatives which are in line with the SCA agenda and
that ensure low carbon is the default position for
infrastructure investment going forward.
End Notes and References
1. This term was coined by the Global
Commission on the Economy and Climate in
their recent New Climate Economics Report,
2014.
2. Total output is the total domestic production
which includes intermediate inputs and
Gross Value Added (GVA). GVA is output
minus intermediate consumption.
3. This excludes any revenue saving which
might be realised through investment in
Energy from Waste in Aberdeen, Hydrogen
projects in Perth, or Green Transport in
Inverness.
4. This excludes any carbon saving which
might be realised through investment in
Energy from Waste in Aberdeen, Hydrogen
projects in Perth, or Green Transport in
Inverness.
5. 5th Assessment Synthesis Report,
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
2014
6. Better Growth, Better Climate. The New
Climate Economy, 2014.
7. Stern Review on the Economics of Climate
Change. HM Treasury, 2006.
8. Going Green: How cities are leading the next
economy. LSE Cities, 2013.
9. For the purposes of the public bodies climate
change duties guidance‘Major Players’ are
considered to be: Public bodies with large
estates and large numbers of staff; Public
bodies with a high impact and influence, e.g.
Scottish Government, local authorities, SEPA,
SNH; Public bodies with large expenditure;
Public bodies that provide an auditing or
scottishcitiesalliance
regulatory function. http://www.scotland.
gov.uk/Resource/0043/00430109.pdf
17. The base temperature used to calculate
degree days in the UK is 15.5ºC, because at
this temperature most UK buildings do not
need supplementary heating. ‘Degree days’
is a measure of the difference between the
baseline and the actual outdoor temperature
multiplied by the number of days.
10. The Government Economic Strategy, Scottish
Government, 2011. http://www.scotland.gov.
uk/publications/2011/09/13091128/0.
11. A Low Carbon Economic Strategy for
Scotland. Scotland – a Low carbon Society.
The Scottish Government, 2010.
18. Protecting Our Capital; how climate
adaptation in cities creates a resilient place
for business. Carbon Disclosure Project,
2014.
12. Low Carbon Scotland: Meeting our
Emissions Reduction Targets 2013-2027.
Scottish Government, 2013.
13. Climate change, Single Outcomes
Agreements and Community Planning
Partnerships. Sustainable Scotland Network,
2014.
19. CDP’s cities program provides a voluntary
climate change reporting platform for city
governments. The program is open to any
city government, regardless of size or
geographic location.
14. Emerging city policies: devolution, deals
and disorder. Waite D., D Macleannan, D. &
O’Sullivan, T., 2013 Unpublished.
20. These include storms and floods; drought;
sea level rise; rainfall, and temperature and
heatwaves.
15. Scotland’s Cities: Collaborating To Compete.
Scottish Cities Knowledge Centre, 2014
21. Scottish Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2012;
Section C - Estimated Emissions Adjusted
for Trading Within the EU Emissions Trading
System (EU ETS) Chart 4. (last updated
2014).
16. By way of an example; Edible Edinburgh
is an initiative which aims to develop
Edinburgh as a sustainable food city ‘where
good food is available and accessible for
all, making for healthy people, thriving
communities and sustainable development’.
Established in January 2013, the Edible
Edinburgh cross-sector steering group has
a core of 15 members from the public,
private and third sectors and is supported
by Edinburgh City Council. Governance
structures are established through
the Community Plan to the Edinburgh
Partnership. Edible Edinburgh: A Sustainable
Food City Plan was published in April 2014.
22. The National Flood Risk Assessment, SEPA,
2011. http://www.sepa.org.uk/flooding/
flood_risk_management/national_flood_
risk_assessment.aspx
23. Scottish Government. http://www.scotland.
gov.uk/Publications/2009/12/08130513/5
24. Hotspots 2025: benchmarking the future
competitiveness of cities. The Economist
Intelligence Unit, 2013. Accessed October
2014; http://www.citigroup.com/citi/
citiforcities/pdfs/hotspots2025.pdf
24
25. The Rockefeller Foundation has undertaken
progressive work on making cities more
aware of the threats posed by climate
change and recently announced Glasgow
as a member of their 100 Resilient Cities
Network.
26. Briefing on Green Infrastructure in the United
Kingdom, The Royal Town Planning Institute,
2013. http://www.rtpi.org.uk/media/499964/
rtpi_gi_task_group_briefing_final.pdf
27. Scottish Futures Trust, pers. comm., 2014.
28. Funding Low Carbon Cities: Mapping Risks
and Opportunities. Centre for Climate
Change Economics and Policy, 2012.
29. Scottish Cities Alliance, pers comms.,
October 2014.
30. This is based on the cities’ energy costs
being split 55/45 on electricity and gas and
applied DECC projected increases of 63%
and 29% respectively. https://www.gov.uk/
government/publications/updated-energyand-emissions-projections-2014.
31. Energy Efficiency Measures Part B Technical Guidance on Commercial and
Accounting impacts. Scottish Futures Trust,
22 January 2013.
32. http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/
Business-Industry/Energy/Energysources/19185/Heat/HeatMap
End Notes and References
33. The Scottish Government recognises this
link and has identified deep geothermal
energy as an important emerging renewable
energy technology that could have the
potential to play a significant role in
Scotland’s future energy provision. A recent
study aimed to identify the steps necessary
to take forward the commercialisation of
deep geothermal energy in Scotland. “Study
into the Potential for Deep Geothermal
Energy in Scotland: Volume 1”. Scottish
Government, 2013.
34. See http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/
Business-Industry/Energy/Energysources/19185/Heat; http://www.scotland.
gov.uk/Resource/0041/00413386.
pdf and http://www.scotland.gov.uk/
Resource/0044/00445639.pdf
35. Development of excess heat-based district
heating - A case study of the development
of excess heat-based district heating in two
Swedish communities. Sofia Persson, Olof
Hjelm, Sara Gustafsson, 2014.
36. www.energysavingtrust.org.uk/scotland/
Take-action/Get-business-funding/Districtheating-loan-fund2
37. The Heat Network Partnership is a
collaboration of agencies in Scotland
focused on the promotion and support of
district heating schemes in Scotland.
38. Research into barriers to deployment of
district heating networks. Department of
Energy and Climate Change, 2013.
39. http://www.districtheatingscotland.com/
scottishcitiesalliance
40. Energy Efficiency Measures Part B Technical Guidance on Commercial and
Accounting Impacts. Scottish Futures Trust,
22 January 2013.
45. These figures have been estimated
through the use of Input Output analysis
with information assumptions made
about the proportion of investment spent
in any given sector and the proportion
which could be expected to be spend in
Scotland, as opposed to on imports. This
analysis assumes that around 56% of this
investment is spent within Scotland in a
number of sectors participating in the low
carbon economy. It also assumes that the
investment is all new investment.
41. ‘We can avoid climate change, and boost the
world’s economy – if we can now’. An article
in the Guardian Newspaper, Angel Gurria and
Nicholas Stern, published Tuesday 16th of
September, 2014.
42. These damages commonly include, but are
not limited to, damage to property, transport
and non-transport infrastructure, social
impacts within communities, including
impacts on public health, changes in
resource availability due to changes in the
natural environment.
46. The analysis presented assumes that around
44% of this investment is spent on imports,
thereby providing no direct or indirect gain
to Scotland’s cities or the wider economy.
47. Scottish Enterprise, pers. comm., 2014.
43. Investment is assumed to be distributed
amongst the following sectors: 39 -Electrical
equipment; 40-Machinery and equipment
not elsewhere classified; 41-Motor vehicles,
trailers and semi-trailers; 42-Other transport
equipment 45-Repair and installation of
machinery and equipment; 50-Construction;
76-Architectural and engineering services;
technical testing and analysis services;
87-Public administration and defence
services; compulsory social security
services.
48. This analysis assumes, for instance that all
of the investment in retrofitting buildings
could be retained within Scotland, while
around just 65% of that invested in LED
street lighting could be, as no manufacturing
facilities exist in Scotland.
49. Infrastructure, Engineering And Climate
Change Adaptation. Royal Academy of
Engineers, 2011
50. Funding Low Carbon Cities: Mapping Risks
and Opportunities. Centre for Climate
Change Economics and Policy, 2012.
44. Total output is the total domestic production
which includes intermediate inputs and
Gross Value Added (GVA). GVA is output
minus intermediate consumption. Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) includes the capital
and labour income, and essentially is equals
to GVA. Generally, absolute value of total
output is greater than that of GDP.
51. Funding Low Carbon Cities: Mapping the
Ricks and Opportunities. Centre for Climate
change Economics and Policy, 2012.
25
52. C40 was created in 2005 by former Mayor
of London Ken Livingstone, and forged a
partnership in 2006 with the Cities Program
of President Clinton’s Climate Initiative (CCI)
to reduce carbon emissions and increase
energy efficiency in large cities across the
world. Under the leadership of then Mayor of
Toronto David Miller, who served after Mayor
Livingstone as C40 Chair, the organisation
advanced programs and partnerships that
drew international recognition for the role
of cities as leaders in climate action. 108th
Mayor of New York City Mayor Michael
R. Bloomberg served as C40 Chair from
November 2010 to December 2013, during
which time C40 fully integrated with the
Clinton Foundation’s CCI Cities Program.
Mayor Bloomberg currently serves as
President of the C40 Board of Directors. Rio
de Janeiro Mayor Eduardo Paes began his
tenure as C40 Chair in December 2013.
53. As noted in the sectoral analysis which
was undertaken for the cities, there is not
a significant dominance of sectors in one
city (apart possibly from Aberdeen’s in the
oil and gas sector), but rather each city
occupies a niche area with key sectors
contributing significantly to the economies
of many of Scotland’s cites (SCKC, 2014).
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