CENTER FOR FAMILY & DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH Making Graphs with Excel Summer 2014 Workshop Series WHY- CHARTS? Picture Superiority Effect Information is better remembered in tests of recall and item recognition when presented as pictures rather than words Fruit < Why is it so difficult for- SOCIOLOGISTS? How do you process? • • • • • • • • • • Analytical Logical Precise Repetitive Organized Details Scientific Detached Literal Sequential • • • • • • • • • • Creative Imaginative General Intuitive Conceptual Big picture Heuristic Empathetic Figurative Irregular I Propose we Marry the Two The pun is intended! Organization of Presentation • • • • • Structure of an Excel Chart Different Types of Excel Charts Basic Principles of Chart Design Graphing Interaction Effects Creating a Chart with a Double Axis What makes upTHE STRUCTURE OF AN EXCEL CHART? Let’s Dissect… Predicted Marriage & Divorce Rates Chart Title Upper Bounds (UB) & Lower Bounds (LB) Rates per 1,000 at Risk Population Legend 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 UB Mar Rt LB UB Div Rt Data Labels LB 36.0 24.2 Gridlines Axis $0 Axis Titles $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 HMI Spending Per Population at Risk of Marriage or Divorce Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2008-2011; HMI spending data– Hawkins et al., 2013. $35 $40 Source What areTHE DIFFERENT TYPES OF CHARTS? Histograms A vertical bar chart that depicts the distribution of a set of data Histograms, example Pie Charts Generally used to show percentage or proportional data classified into nominal or ordinal categories Pie Charts, examples Simple Pie Pie-of-Pie Top Reasons for Fathers Leaving the Workforce in 2008 Percent of births by informal marital status of mother, 20052010 Childcare 15% Other 46% School/ Training 20% Married 57% Unmarried 43% Layoff 19% Source: Survey of Income and Program Participation, 2008 March Supplement Source: NSFG 2006-2010 Cohabiting 25% Single 18% Pie Charts, examples Simple Pie Doughnut College experiences of young adults (by age 25) Percent of young adults who enroll in a 4-year program by degree earned by age 25 Bachelor's degree 21% Associate's degree 6% Didn't enroll 40% No degree 33% Did not finish 44% Bachelor's degree 49% Associate's degree 7% Source: National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, Rounds 1-13: 1997-2009 weighted. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, NCFMR analyses of valid cases. Bar Chart, example Prevalence of Pre-union First Birth across Demographic Characteristics Women Pre-union First Birth Hispanics 7% Hispanics GED None Yes 13% 13% Blacks H.S. Yes 7% No 93% 9% Whites Assoc. Deg. Whites 11% Men B.A.+ Prevalence of Pre-union First Birth by Race/Ethnicity: 33% 2% No 87% Blacks 8% Yes 33% 12% 20% 19% No 67% Source: National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97), Rounds 1-13: 1997-2009 (weighted). U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, NCFMR analyses of valid cases. Column & Bar Charts Useful for showing data changes over a period of time or for illustrating comparisons among items Column Charts, examples Simple Side-by-Side Fathers Living with All of Their Children Race, Ethnicity & Nativity Percentage of Same-Sex Couple Households with Minor Children by Sex of Couple and Race/Ethnicity of Household Head 80% 74% 70% 62% 80% Male-Male 70% Female-Female 60% 49% 50% 40% 44% 38% 30% 20% 10% 25% 25% 20% 37% 22% 11% 0% All fathers White Source: NSFG 2006-2010 Black NB Hispanic FB Hispanic White Black Asian Hispanic Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1Year Estimates, 2012 Column Charts, examples Percent Change in Share of Aggregate Income from 1970-2009 Lowest fifth Second fifth Third fifth Fourth fifth Highest fifth 16% -8% -12% -18% -25% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements Column Charts, examples Public Assistance Participation among U.S. Children in Poverty by Family Structure, 2010 SNAP TANF 76% 65% 55% 53% 52% 31% 6% Married Couple Households 11% 1% Different Sex Couples Male Same Sex Couples 6% Female Same Sex Couples Cohabiting Households Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates, 2010 11% Father Only 19% Mother Only Single Parent Households Column Charts, examples Changes in the Shares of Births to Single and Cohabiting Mothers Under Age 40 Single Cohabiting Total Non-Marital 100% 80% 60% 35% 40% 20% 0% 21% 6% 27% 11% 18% 42% 24% 15% 16% 17% 18% 1980-1984 1990-1994 1997-2001 2005-2009 Sources: 1980-1984 data, Bumpass & Lu (2000) using NSFH, 1987/1988; 1990-1994 & 1997-2001 data, Kennedy & Bumpass (2008) using NSFG 1995 & NSFG 2002; 2005-2009, NCFMR analyses using NSFG 2006-2010. Line Charts Ideal for showing trends over time Line Charts, examples Share of Married Mothers Experiencing a Premarital Birth, by Race and Marriage Cohort 70 Overall 60 White 50 57.1 Black 40 30.9 30 20 22.1 20.4 10 0 4.4 2.4 1955-59 1960-64 1965-69 1970-74 1975-79 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 2005-09 Source: The Integrated Fertility Survey Series (IFSS) is a project of the Population Studies Center and the Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research at the University of Michigan, with funding from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD, grant 5R01 HD053533; Pamela J. Smock, PI). Line Charts, examples Young Adults Living in a Parent's Household and Economic Recession Years by Sex and Ages, 1940-2010 100% Recessions 80% 18-24 Men 67% 60% 40% 51% 51% 47% 32% 20% 19% 10% 17% 1940 25-34 Men 42% 24% 0% 18-24 Women 1950 1960 7% 1970 15% 1980 1990 2000 25-34 Women gf 2 per. Mov. Avg. (18-24 Women ) 2 per. Mov. Avg. (25-34 Men) 2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census, 1940-2000 (IPUMS); U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year estimates 2010 (IPUMS) Line Charts, examples Annual HMI Spending and Marriage & Divorce Rates, 2000 - 2010 Marriage Rate HMI Spending $160 46.1 45 $122 33.9 Rates per 1,000 at Risk 40 35 $140 $120 30 $100 25 $80 20 18.4 18.4 15 $40 10 5 $60 Dollar Amounts in Millioms 50 Divorce Rate $20 $5 0 $0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Sources: CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, 2000; Glass & Levchak, 2010, NCFMR County-Level Marriage & Divorce Data, 2000; U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census, 2000; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates, 2008 – 2010; HMI Spending data – Hawkins et al., 2013. Line Charts, examples Crossover in median age at first marriage and first birth: Rising proportion of births to unmarried women, 1980-Present 28 100 27 90 80 25 60 24 50 23 40 Percent 70 30 22 20 10 0 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 20 2000 21 1998 Proportion of births to unmarried women Women's median age at first marriage Women's median age at first birth 1996 Age in years 26 Sources: 1. U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, March and Annual Social and Economic Supplements, 2012 and earlier. 2. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. National Center for Health Statistics. Vital Stats. http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/vitalstats.htm. [March 2013]. 3. Martin JA, Hamilton BE, Ventura SJ, et al. Births: Final data for 2009. National vital statistics reports; vol 60 no 1. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011. 4. Hamilton BE, Martin JA, Ventura SJ. Births: Preliminary data for 2010. National vital statistics reports web release; vol 60 no 2. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics. 2011. Scatter Plots Commonly used to show the relationship between two variables e.g. correlation Scatter Plots, example State Math Scores and Students' TV Viewing Habits 1992 State 8th-grade NAEP Math Score 290 MN ND 280 IA ME NE WI NH CT UT 270 ID MA IN CO WY PA MI NJ MO OK OH TX RI AZ CA 260 NY VA NM MD NC KY WV TN DE FL SC GA HI AR AL LA 250 MS 240 DC 230 0 5 10 15 20 % Students watching TV 6 hrs+ per day Source: National Center for Educational Statistics, 1994 25 30 Area Charts Show percentage or proportional data classified into nominal or ordinal categories over time Area Charts, example Marital Status of U.S. Population Aged 15 and Older, 1970-2012 100% 80% 60% Married Never Married Divorced 40% Widowed 20% 0% 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008 2012 Source: 1970-2000 data, U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, March and Annual Social and Economic Supplements. 2008 and 2012 data, U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, (IPUMS) What are someBASIC PRINCIPLES OF CHART DESIGN? 1. Simplify • Minimize ink-to-data ratio • Remove unneeded chart elements Gridlines Chart borders Axis titles Legends Markers & data labels Decimal points (in axis & data labels) – Trend lines – NO 3D charts!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! – – – – – – • Sort data in a meaningful way Example of a 3D Chart: Fathers Living with All of Their Children Race, Ethnicity & Nativity 74% 80% 62% 70% 49% All White fathers Black NB Hispanic FB Hispanic 2. Color vs. Black & White • When in doubt black & white • Color can help tell a story • Color = branding (e.g. CFDR, NCFMR, BGSU) – Use a cohesive and consistent color palette – Be mindful of how audience will view • Excel vs. Word vs. PDF • Color vs. B&W print copy 3. Do NOT Use Distorted Charts • Do NOT misrepresent your data! • Use appropriate and consistent axis and scales 4. Present Related Charts Simultaneously • One-after-another or side-by-side if possible • Emphasizes importance of appropriate axis and scales 5. Know Your Audience • Academics vs. lay folks • Undergraduate students vs. graduate students • Graduate students vs. professors • PAA presentation vs. job talk 6. TMC = TMI • Too many charts (TMC) is as bad as too much information (TMI) Do NOT overload your audience! Let’s apply some principles: Which is easier to understand? Predicted Marriage & Divorce Rates Predicted Marriage & Divorce Rates Given State-level HMI Spending Rates per 1,000 at Risk Population Upper Bounds (UB) & Lower Bounds (LB) UB Mar Rt LB UB Div Rt LB 50 45 40 35.97 35 30 25 24.25 20 15 10 5 0 $0.00 $10.00 $20.00 $30.00 $40.00 HMI Spending Per Population at Risk of Marriage or Divorce Mar Rt Div Rt 45 40 35 39 36 30 25 24*** 20 15 19 10 5 0 $0 $8 $16 $24 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2008-2011; HMI spending data– Hawkins et al., 2013. $32 7. Do you need a chart? million $117 The amount annual HMI spending in the U.S. increased from 2000 – 2010 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2008-2011; HMI spending data– Hawkins et al., 2013. How do ICHART INTERACTION EFFECTS? Logistic Regression Predicting Ever Marrying • An interaction between a categorical and continuous predictor (DeMaris 2004, p 143): E(Y) = β0 + δ1Black + β1Parity + ϒ1Black*Parity – – – – The subpop consists of only White and Black women Black is a dummy variable Parity indicates number of live births, range 0-15 Analyses is weighted Logistic Regression Predicting Ever Marrying, cont. • Stata Output for Full Model: . svy, subpop(blkwht): logistic evermar black PARITY PARITYblk, coef (running logistic on estimation sample) Survey: Logistic regression Number of strata Number of PSUs = = 56 152 Number of obs = 12279 Population size = 61754741 Subpop. no. of obs = 8568 Subpop. size = 45835139 Design df = 96 F( 3, 94) = 186.25 Prob > F = 0.0000 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------| Linearized evermar | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------black | -.4698438 .1172022 -4.01 0.000 -.7024885 -.2371992 PARITY | 1.458909 .0707637 20.62 0.000 1.318444 1.599374 PARITYblk | -.9253343 .0978554 -9.46 0.000 -1.119576 -.7310928 _cons | -.8652098 .0616793 -14.03 0.000 -.9876423 -.7427772 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Logistic Regression Predicting Ever Marrying, cont. • Table of Results Logistic Regression Predicting Ever Marrying Model 1 (Zero-Order) Black Parity Black X Parity Constant Coef. SE -0.854 0.325 *** 1.040 0.054 *** Model 2 Coef. SE -1.589 0.113 *** 1.150 0.053 *** -0.679 0.06 *** Model 3 (Full) Coef. -0.470 1.459 -0.925 -0.865 SE 0.117 *** 0.071 *** 0.098 *** 0.062 *** Logistic Regression Predicting Ever Marrying, cont. • Equation for Full Model E(Y) = β0 + δ1Black + β1Parity + ϒ1Black*Parity • Equation for Black Women E(Y) = β0 + δ1 + β1Parity + ϒ1*Parity • Equation for White Women E(Y) = β0 + β1Parity • Now, Plug and Play in Excel! Logistic Regression Predicting Ever Marrying, cont. Unformatted Formatted 25.000 Effect of Parity on Ever Marrying for Black and White Women 20.000 Black Women White Women 25 15.000 20 Black Women 10.000 White Women 15 10 5 5.000 0 0.000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516 -5 -10 -5.000 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Parity
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