THE RISE AND FALL OF
LITHIUM
+60 MILLION TONS OF OPPORTUNITY
Dr. David Deak
Lithium Americas Corp.
APRIL 2017
The views, estimates, and opinions expressed in this presentation are those of
the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Lithium Americas Corp.
APRIL 2017 |
LITHIUM MARKET: TOMORROW
EV market
needs 20x
growth
Lithium carbonate
equivalent (LCE)
Moly.
(267 kt)
2030e
WHY ARE WE HERE?
Graphite
(1.2 MMt)
3.1 million
tpa LCE
Cobalt
(124 kt)
Over 60
gigafactories
Excludes:

Utility storage

Semi trucks
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2
CLIMATE CHANGE 101
Current
Level
Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels
375
350
325
300
275
250
225
200
175
400,000
300,000
200,000
Years before present
100,000
0
Source: NASA
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3
ENERGY SOURCES VS CO 2
US energy consumption (quadrillion BTU)
45
40
Petroleum
35
30
Natural Gas
25
20
Coal
15
10
Nuclear
5
Hydro
Wood
Renewables
0
1776
1836
1895
1956
2012
Source: EIA
APRIL 2017 |
4
LITHIUM MARKET: TOMORROW
EV market
needs 20x
growth
Lithium carbonate
equivalent (LCE)
Moly.
(267 kt)
2030e
3.1 million
tpa LCE
WHAT IS THE OPPORTUNITY?
Graphite
(1.2 MMt)
Cobalt
(124 kt)
Over 60
gigafactories
Excludes:

Utility storage

Semi trucks
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5
KEEPING THE LIGHTS ON
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6
THE EV: A BETTER USER EXPERIENCE
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LITHIUM: COST PARITY
TODAY
Source: McKinsey, EIA
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LITHIUM: IT’S LIGHT
Periodic table
Lithium
Anode
3
Li
Cathode
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LITHIUM: IT’S HIGH ENERGY
F2
+
2e-
⇄
2F.
+2.87
Pb4+
+
2e-
⇄
Pb2+
+1.67
Cl2
+
2e-
⇄
2Cl-
+1.36
O2 = 4H+
+
4e-
⇄
2H2O
+1.23
Ag+
+
1e-
⇄
Ag
Fe3+
+
1e-
⇄
Fe2+
Cu2+
+
2e-
⇄
Cu
2H+
+
2e-
⇄
H2
Pb2+
+
2e-
⇄
Pb
Fe2+
+
2e-
⇄
Fe
Zn2+
+
2e-
⇄
Zn
Al3+
+
3e-
⇄
Al
-1.66
Mg2+
+
2e-
⇄
Mg
-2.36
Li+
+
1e-
⇄
Li
-3.05
Lithium
3
Li
| T SX : LAC
stronger reducing agent
stronger oxidizing agent
Electrochemical series
+0.80
+0.77
+0.34
0.00
-0.13
-0.44
-0.76
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LITHIUM MARKET: TODAY
$1.5 billion in
sales
182 kt LCE
market
Moly.
(267 kt)
Graphite
(1.2 MMt)
Cobalt
(124 kt)
Li
40%
Li-ion
Lithium carbonate
equivalent (LCE)
60%
other
3-4
gigafactories
Source: USGS
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GIGAFACTORY MATHEMATICS
To meet some oncoming demand (e.g. Tesla, VW) in 5 years:
1 GIGAFACTORY
4 GIGAFACTORIES
70 GWh / year
x 0.7 kg LCE per kWh
~ 50,000 t of LCE per year
~ 200,000 t of LCE per year
70 GWh
/ 70 kWh per EV
~ 1 million EVs per year
~ 4 million EVs per year
= 25% of today’s Li market
= x2 of today’s Li market
1 million
tonnes
LCE
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GIGAFACTORY MATHEMATICS
To electrify the world’s fleet of vehicles:
1 GIGAFACTORY
62 GIGAFACTORIES
70 GWh
x 0.7 kg LCE per kWh
~ 50,000 t of LCE per year
~ 3.1 million tonnes of LCE per year
70 GWh
/ 70 kWh per EV
~ 1 million EVs per year
Over 20 years:
= 1 million tonnes LCE
= 20 million EVs
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~ 62 million EVs per year
Over 20 years:
= 62 million tonnes LCE
= 1.25 billion EVs
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RAPID TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION
Percent of households
100
75
50
25
0
1930
1910
Electricity
Color Television
Clothes Washer
Dish Washer
Electricity
1950
Range
Telephone
VCR
Computer
1970
1990
Refrigerator
Automobile
Air Conditioning
Cell Phone
2010
Radio
Microwave
Clothes Dryer
Internet
Source: BlackRock, Interpreting Innovation, September 2014
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LITHIUM MARKET: TOMORROW
The Rise and Fall of Lithium
(MMt, LCE)
To electrify the world’s fleet of
vehicles, production needs to
average
3.1 million tonnes LCE for 20 years.
4.0
3.1 million
tonnes
3.0
Once global fleet of
electric vehicles are
built, recycling should
see LCE demand fall.
2.0
Today’s lithium market is only
182 k tonnes.
1.0
0.0
2016
2020
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2025
2030
….
2046+
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15
LITHIUM MARKET: TOMORROW
EV market
needs 20x
growth
Lithium carbonate
equivalent (LCE)
Moly.
(267 kt)
Graphite
(1.2 MMt)
2030e
3.1 million
tpa LCE
Cobalt
(124 kt)
Over 60
gigafactories
Excludes:

Utility storage

Semi trucks
| T SX : LAC
APRIL 2017 |
16
LITHIUM MARKET: TOMORROW
EV market
needs 20x
growth
Lithium carbonate
equivalent (LCE)
WHERE ARE
THE OPPORTUNITIES?
Moly.
(267 kt)
Graphite
(1.2 MMt)
2030e
3.1 million
tpa LCE
Cobalt
(124 kt)
Over 60
gigafactories
Excludes:

Utility storage

Semi trucks
| T SX : LAC
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17
LITHIUM SOURCES
BRINE
HARD ROCK
CLAY
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LITHIUM PRODUCTION COSTS
Cost of production ($/t LCE)
Difficult to
escape
physics
Plenty of
room for
optimization
Clay
Hardrock
Brine
Innovate to
lower cost
Grade of resource (Li ppm)
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INNOVATE: STREAMLINE PROCESS
Cost of production ($/t LCE)
ore/brine

Li2CO

ore/brine

LiOH⋅H2O
LiOH⋅H2O
Clay
Hardrock
Brine
Grade of resource (Li ppm)
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20
INNOVATE: REVAMP ENERGY SYSTEMS
Cost of production ($/t LCE)
Build on first
principles
$0.35/kWh 
<$0.05/kWh
Clay
Hardrock
Brine
Vertical
integration
Grade of resource (Li ppm)
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INNOVATE: ALTERNATIVE BRINE TECH
Cost of production ($/t LCE)
Increase yield
recovery
Process for all
circumstances
Brine
Optimize
water
management
Grade of resource (Li ppm)
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INNOVATE: ALTERNATIVE ROCK TECH
Cost of production ($/t LCE)
Vertical
integration
$0.35/kWh 
<$0.05/kWh
Hardrock
Recycle
consumables
Grade of resource (Li ppm)
| T SX : LAC
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INNOVATE: CLAY OPPORTUNITY
Cost of production ($/t LCE)
Robust process
exists*
Favorable
thermodynamics
Clay
Goal:
optimizing
mass-energy
balance
Grade of resource (Li ppm)
| T SX : LAC
*Not yet commercialized
APRIL 2017 |
24
HOW TO BEST INVEST IN LITHIUM?
$40 BILLION
| T SX : LAC
APRIL 2017 |
25
TAKE-AWAYS
1
3
Electrification of transport is a reality
• Better user experience
• Cost parity today
Investable projects are:
• Scalable and risk-manageable
• Built on collaborative talent
| T SX : LAC
2
Lithium market must grow by a
factor of +20
• For EV market needs
• More for utilities, semi-trucks et al.
4
Unprecedented high-impact
investment opportunity
• Enabler of sustainable future
• Legacy of clean air and planet
APRIL 2017 |
26
THE FUTURE IS CLEAR
CONTACT INFORMATION
[email protected]
1100 – 355 Burrard Street
Vancouver, BC V6C 2G8
Canada
APRIL 2017 |
Hong Kong