Brigham Young University BYU ScholarsArchive International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software 7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software Jun 16th, 9:00 AM - 10:20 AM The CSDMS Standard Names: Cross-Domain Naming Conventions for Describing Process Models, Data Sets and Their Associated Variables Scott D. Peckham University of Colorado, INSTAAR, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: http://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/iemssconference Part of the Civil Engineering Commons, Data Storage Systems Commons, Environmental Engineering Commons, and the Other Civil and Environmental Engineering Commons Scott D. Peckham, "The CSDMS Standard Names: Cross-Domain Naming Conventions for Describing Process Models, Data Sets and Their Associated Variables" ( June 16, 2014). International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software. Paper 12. http://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/iemssconference/2014/Stream-A/12 This Event is brought to you for free and open access by the Civil and Environmental Engineering at BYU ScholarsArchive. It has been accepted for inclusion in International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software by an authorized administrator of BYU ScholarsArchive. For more information, please contact [email protected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model’sRXWSXWYDULDEOHLVDSSURSULDWHWREHXVHGDVDQRWKHUmodel’sLQSXWYDULDEOH DVWDQGDUGL]HGDQGSUHFLVHGHVFULSWLRQRIHDFKYDULDEOHLVUHTXLUHG ,IDGGLWLRQDOLQIRUPDWLRQHJ D variable’sXQLWVLVDOVRSURYLGHGLQDVWDQGDUGL]HGZD\ WKHIUDPHZRUNFDQDOVRDXWRPDWLFDOO\DSSO\ FRQYHUVLRQVHJ XQLWFRQYHUVLRQZKHQQHHGHGVRWKDWFRXSOHGUHVRXUFHVFDQVKDUHWKHQXPHULFDO YDOXH RI D YDULDEOH7KLV paper’s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“streamflow”,DQG DQRWKHUPRGHOPLJKWQHHGWKLVVDPHYDULDEOHWRGRLWVFDOFXODWLRQVFDOOLQJLW“discharge”RUMXVW“Q”, WKHVWDQGDUGDEEUHYLDWLRQXVHGE\K\GURORJLVWV7KHWZRPRGHOVPLJKWDOVRXVHGLIIHUHQWXQLWVIRUWKLV YDULDEOH :LWKRQO\PLQLPDOFKDQJHVWRPRGHOVRXUFHFRGHKRZFDQWKHPRGHOFRXSOLQJIUDPHZRUN XQGHUVWDQGWKHVHPDQWLFHTXLYDOHQFH“see”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“intelligent”VRIWZDUHWKDWWULHVWRGH WHUPLQHZKLFKYDULDEOHQDPHVDUHVHPDQWLFDOO\HTXLYDOHQWWKURXJKVRPHNLQGRIUHDVRQLQJDOJRULWKP 7KLVDOJRULWKPPD\XVH“crawling”RU“scraping”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resource’s YDULDEOH QDPHV 7KHVH PDWFKHV DUH UHFRUGHG DV D PDSSLQJ VXFK DV D 3\WKRQ GLFWLRQDU\RU“crosswalk”,DQGLQFOXGHGZLWKWKHFRQWULEXWLRQ 3URV +LJKDFFXUDF\ 2QHWLPH FRVW1RHIIRUWIRUXVHUV&RQV$FRQWULEXWRUPD\QRWZDQWWRSURYLGHWKHPDSSLQJ ' (6,*1 2 %-(&7,9(6)25 6 7$1'$5',=(' 9 $5,$%/( 1 $0(6 $YRLGDPELJXRXVYDULDEOHQDPHV,WVKRXOGEHHDV\IRUDUHVRXUFHFRQWULEXWRUGRPDLQH[SHUWWRILQG WKHULJKWPDWFKLQDVWDQGDUGL]HGOLVWZLWKRXWDVVLVWDQFH 'LVWLQFWYDULDEOHVQHHGXQLTXHGHVFULSWLYH QDPHV0DQ\ WHUPV HVSHFLDOO\ TXDQWLW\ QDPHV DUH UHXVHG ZLWK GLIIHUHQWPHDQLQJV ZLWKLQ GLIIHUHQW FRQWH[WV RU VFLHQFH GRPDLQV ([DPSOHV LQFOXGH FRQGXFWLYLW\ HOHFWULFDO K\GUDXOLF LRQLF WKHUPDO FRQFHQWUDWLRQPDVVPRODUQXPEHUDQGYROXPHVWUHVVGHYLDWRULFQRUPDOVKHDUYLVFRVLW\G\QDPLF VKHDUG\QDPLFYROXPHNLQHPDWLFVKHDUNLQHPDWLFYROXPHH[WHQVLRQDOHGG\DQGYRUWLFLW\DEVROXWH SRWHQWLDO UHODWLYH 0DQ\ WHUPV KDYH SUHFLVH PHDQLQJV ZLWK DVVRFLDWHG XQLWV VXFK DV VSHHG YV YHORFLW\IOX[DQGUDWH 1DPLQJFRQYHQWLRQVPXVWWKHUHIRUHEHH[SUHVVLYHHQRXJKWRDYRLGDPELJXLW\ ZKLOHVWULYLQJIRUVKRUWFRQFLVHQDPHVWKDWHOLPLQDWHDPELJXLW\ $YRLGGRPDLQVSHFLILFWHUPLQRORJ\6WDQGDUGYDULDEOHQDPHVVKRXOGXVHWHUPVWKDWDUHXQGHUVWRRG E\PRVWJHRVFLHQWLVWVUHJDUGOHVVRIGRPDLQ )RUH[DPSOHVRPHGRPDLQVXVH“tendency”DVDV\Q RQ\PIRU“timederivative”,EXWWKHODWWHUWHUPLVPXFKPRUHZLGHO\XQGHUVWRRGDQGLVDOVRPRUHHDVLO\ H[WHQGHGWRRWKHUW\SHVRIGHULYDWLYH 8VHJHQHULFRUDOUHDG\VWDQGDUGL]HGREMHFWQDPHV :RUGVOLNHULYHUVWUHDPEURRNDQGFUHHNDUH HVVHQWLDOO\V\QRQ\PVIRUWKHVDPHW\SHRIREMHFWDOWKRXJKWKH\FRQYH\VRPHLQIRUPDWLRQUHJDUGLQJ VL]H:KLOHLQFOXGLQJDQREMHFWQDPHLQDYDULDEOHQDPHSURYLGHVPDQ\EHQHILWVLWLVFRXQWHUSURGXFWLYH WRVXSSRUWV\QRQ\PVEHFDXVHLWPDNHVILQGLQJYDOLGPDWFKHVPRUHFRPSOLFDWHG ,QVWHDG DJHQHULF REMHFWQDPHVXFKDV“channel”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“liquid ZDWHU equivalent” DOVR YLRODWHV WKLV FULWHULDJupiter’s PRRQ 7LWDQ KDV D “methanecycle”VLPLODUWREarth’sK\GURORJLFF\FOHDQGTXDQWLWLHVVKRXOGEHUHXVDEOHLQWKDWFRQWH[W 3DUVDELOLW\DQGVWULFWDGKHUHQFHWRUXOHV6WULFWDGKHUHQFHWRUXOHVDOORZVWKHSDUWVRIDQDPHWREH H[WUDFWHGYLDVLPSOHVWULQJSDUVLQJ 7KLVDOORZVVRIWZDUHWREHZULWWHQWKDW FKHFNVWKHYDOLGLW\RI DSURSRVHGQDPHDXWRPDWLFDOO\FRQVWUXFWVYDOLGQDPHVIURPRWKHUOLVWVILQGVSDUWLDORUFORVHVW PDWFKHVZKHQWKHUHisn’t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“deciders”RIZKHQWKHV\VWHPZLOOWUDQVLWLRQWRVRPHQHZVWDWHHJ WXUEXOHQWYV ODPLQDURUVXEFULWLFDOYVVXSHUFULWLFDOIORZ 6XSSRUW IRU PDWKHPDWLFDO DQG SK\VLFDO FRQVWDQWV 7KHVH FRQVWDQWV RFFXU IUHTXHQWO\ LQ PRGHOV DQGVKRXOGEHUHWULHYDEOHIURPDPRGHO ([DPSOHVLQFOXGHWKH“standardJUDYLW\constant”IRU(DUWK GHQRWHGE\“littleg”DQGWKH“universalJUDYLWDWLRQDOconstant”,GHQRWHGE\“bigG”IURPNewton’sODZ RIJUDYLWDWLRQ (DFKSODQHWKDVLWVRZQVWDQGDUGJUDYLW\FRQVWDQWDQGVRODUFRQVWDQW &RQVWDQWVOLNH WKHVHDSSHDUWKURXJKRXWSK\VLFV 6XSSRUWIRUHPSLULFDOSDUDPHWHUV 0DQ\HPSLULFDOODZVDOORZRQHV\VWHPYDULDEOHWREHFRPSXWHG DVDIXQFWLRQRIRQHRUPRUHRWKHUYDULDEOHV3RZHUODZVDUHYHU\FRPPRQLQZKLFKFDVHWKH“law”KDV ERWKDFRHIILFLHQWDQGRQHRUPRUHH[SRQHQWV )RUH[DPSOHManning’sIRUPXODIRUIORZUHVLVWDQFHLQ FKDQQHOVKDVDSDUDPHWHUFDOOHG“Manning’sn”.2WKHUH[DPSOHVRFFXULQUKHRORJ\VWUHVVVWUDLQODZV DQGVRLOSK\VLFV 6XSSRUWIRULQFRPLQJRURXWJRLQJIORZUDWHVDQGIOX[HV)OX[HVDQGIORZUDWHVDUHXVHGWRTXDQWLI\ WKHUDWHDWZKLFKPDVVPRPHQWXPHQHUJ\YROXPHRUPROHVPRYHLQWRRURXWRIDFRQWUROYROXPH7KH 3DJH 6' 3HFNKDP 7KH &6'06 6WDQGDUG 1DPHV ZRUGUDWHLPSOLHV“perXQLWtime”,VRDPDVVIORZUDWHKDV6,XQLWVRINJVí 7KHGHILQLWLRQRIDIOX[LQ WKLVFRQWH[WLVD“flowUDWHSHUXQLWarea”,VRDPDVVIOX[KDV6,XQLWVRINJPí Ví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model’s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“carbondioxide”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ŤŴťŮŴįŤŰŭŰųŢťŰįŦťŶİŸŪŬŪİńŔŅŎŔŠŔŵŢůťŢųťŠŏŢŮŦŴġ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“longname” LQWKHOLVWRI&6'069DULDEOH1DPHV )RUPRGHOVRUGDWDVHWVWKLVFDQEHGRQHE\LPSOHPHQWLQJD &6'06%DVLF0RGHO,QWHUIDFH%0,ZKLFKPHDQVDGGLQJVRPHVWDQGDUGL]HGIXQFWLRQVWRWKHPRGHO FRGHRUDPRGHOW\SHZUDSSHUWRDGDWDVHW3HFNKDPHWDO 7KH%0,IXQFWLRQVSURYLGHVHOI GHVFULSWLRQ YDULDEOHJHWWHUVDQGVHWWHUVDQGPRGHOFRQWUROIXQFWLRQVLH LQLWLDOL]H XSGDWHILQDOL]H 7KHGHYHORSHUPDSVHDFKRIWKHLUmodel’sLQWHUQDOYDULDEOHQDPHVWRDVWDQGDUGQDPHWKHQXVHVWKDW PDSSLQJWRZULWH%0,JHWWHUDQGVHWWHUIXQFWLRQVWKDWFDQEHFDOOHGE\WKHPRGHOLQJIUDPHZRUNXVLQJ D&6'069DULDEOH1DPHDVWKHDUJXPHQW 7KHJHWWHUIXQFWLRQVUHWXUQWKHYDOXHVRIWKHUHTXHVWHG YDULDEOH7ZR RWKHU %0, IXQFWLRQV LHJHW LQSXW YDU QDPHV DQG JHW RXWSXW YDU QDPHV UHWXUQ VWDQ GDUGQDPHOLVWVRIWKHmodel’sLQSXWDQGRXWSXWYDULDEOHVVRWKHIUDPHZRUNNQRZVZKDWYDULDEOHVWKH PRGHOFDQSURYLGHRUQHHGV 7KHGHYHORSHUGRHVQRW FKDQJHWKHYDULDEOHQDPHVXVHGLQWKHPRGHO VRXUFH FRGH:KLOH WKLV UHTXLUHV D PRGHVW DPRXQW RI DGGLWLRQDO ZRUN RQ WKH SDUW RI WKH PRGHO GH YHORSHULWRQO\UHTXLUHVILQGLQJDPDWFKLQJ&6'069DULDEOH1DPHIRUHDFKRIWKHmodel’sLQSXW DQGRXWSXWYDULDEOHQDPHVZULWLQJDVPDOODPRXQWRIQHZFRGHDVRSSRVHGWRPDNLQJFKDQJHV WRH[LVWLQJFRGHDQGSRVVLEO\VDYLQJDGGLWLRQDODVVXPSWLRQVIRUVRPHYDULDEOHQDPHVDV;0/LQD 0RGHO0HWDGDWD)LOH7KLVLVDRQHWLPHFRVWWKDWSURYLGHVWKHKLJKHVWSRVVLEOHDFFXUDF\IRUVHPDQWLF PDWFKLQJ2QFHFRPSOHWHGDOOIXWXUHVHPDQWLFPHGLDWLRQWKDWLVUHTXLUHGWRFRXSOHWKHPRGHOWRRWKHU VLPLODUO\SUHSDUHGPRGHOVRUGDWDVHWVFDQEHIXOO\DXWRPDWLFDQGWKLVLVDPDMRUEHQHILWIRUXVHUV 6WDQGDUGL]HG3URFHVV1DPHV 0XFKRIVFLHQFHLVFRQFHUQHGZLWKWKHVWXG\RIQDWXUDODQGSK\VLFDOSURFHVVHVVRSHUKDSVLWVKRXOG QRWEHVXUSULVLQJWKDWDODUJHQXPEHURITXDQWLW\QDPHVDUHFRQVWUXFWHGIURPDSURFHVVQDPH)URP WKLVZRUNLWEHFDPHFOHDUWKDWSURFHVVQDPHVFDQEHYLHZHGDVQRXQVGHULYHGIURPYHUEVXVXDOO\ E\DGGLQJRQHRIWKHVHZRUGHQGLQJV WLRQ VLRQ LQJ DJH \ DQFH PHQW DO VLV HJDEVRUSWLRQFRQYHFWLRQUDGLDWLRQ HJFRQYHUVLRQGLVSHUVLRQVXEPHUVLRQ HJPHOWLQJVZLPPLQJXSZHOOLQJ HJGUDLQDJHVHHSDJHVWRUDJH HJGLVFRYHU\UHFRYHU\UHHQWU\ HJDFFHSWDQFHGLVWXUEDQFHPDLQWHQDQFH HJDOLJQPHQWLPSURYHPHQWUHFUXLWPHQW HJDUULYDOGLVSRVDOUHPRYDOUHWULHYDODQG HJRVPRVLVPHWDPRUSKRVLVGLDO\VLVSDUDO\VLV +RZHYHU IRU SURFHVV QDPHV WKDW HQG LQ “ing”, LW LV FRPPRQ WR GURS WKH HQGLQJ DV LQ IORZUDWH ODSVHUDWHPHOWUDWHVKHDUVWUHVVVWDUWWLPHDQGWLOWDQJOH 0RVWSURFHVVQDPHVFDQEHSDLUHGZLWK 3DJH 6' 3HFNKDP 7KH &6'06 6WDQGDUG 1DPHV “rate”WRFUHDWHDTXDQWLW\QDPHWKDWLQGLFDWHVKRZIDVWWKHSURFHVVRFFXUVHJLQILOWUDWLRQUDWH DQG HYDSRUDWLRQUDWH 2WKHU H[DPSOHV RI WKLV SURFHVV QDPH TXDQWLW\ QDPH SDWWHUQ DUH GL OXWLRQUDWLRGUDLQDJHDUHDHVFDSHVSHHGJHVWDWLRQSHULRGLGHQWLILFDWLRQQXPEHULQFOLQDWLRQDQJOH SHQHWUDWLRQGHSWKSURWHFWLRQIDFWRUUHOD[DWLRQWLPHUHWXUQSHULRGVWULNLQJGLVWDQFHWXUQLQJUDGLXV DQGYLEUDWLRQIUHTXHQF\ $FROOHFWLRQRIH[DPSOHVRIWKLVSDWWHUQDQGRYHUVWDQGDUGL]HG SURFHVV QDPHV FDQ EH IRXQG DWũŵŵűĻİİŤŴťŮŴįŤŰŭŰųŢťŰįŦťŶİŸŪŬŪİńŔŏŠőųŰŤŦŴŴŠŏŢŮŦŴ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“smarter”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“tendency”LQVWHDG RI “time derivative”), KDYH FRPSOLFDWHG FRQVWUXFWLRQ JXLGHOLQHV YV UXOHV WKDW DUH QRW DSSOLHG FRQVLVWHQWO\WKH\don’tLQFOXGHSURYLVLRQVIRUGLPHQVLRQOHVVQXPEHUVPDWKHPDWLFDODQGSK\VLFDO FRQVWDQWV HPSLULFDO SDUDPHWHUV RU UHIHUHQFH TXDQWLWLHV WKH\ GR QRW KDYH D QDWXUDO JURXSLQJ RI UHODWHGQDPHVDQGWKH\LQFOXGHDVVXPSWLRQVLQWKHQDPHXVLQJ“assuming”. 7KHUH DUH FXUUHQWO\ &) VWDQGDUG QDPHV ZLWK QHZ SURSRVHG QDPHV XQGHU UHYLHZ VRPH VLQFH7KHQDPHVKDYHEHHQJURXSHGLQWRFDWHJRULHVZLWK$WPRVSKHULF&KHPLVWU\DVWKHODUJHVW FDWHJRU\ZLWKQDPHV +RZHYHUDODUJHIUDFWLRQRIWKHVHUHVXOWIURPVHOHFWLYHO\DSSO\LQJWR TXDQWLW\QDPHSDWWHUQVHJ DWPRVSKHUHPDVVFRQWHQWRI;WRHDFKRIDERXWFKHPLFDOVSHFLHV HJDPPRQLD EHQ]HQH FDUERQGLR[LGH WROXHQH [\OHQH7KHUHDUHQDPHVWKDWLQFOXGHWKH 3DJH 6' 3HFNKDP 7KH &6'06 6WDQGDUG 1DPHV GXH WR FRQVWUXFWWRLGHQWLI\RQHSRVVLEOHVRXUFHFRQWULEXWLRQWRDJLYHQTXDQWLW\ 2WKHUFRQVWUXFWVWKDW DUHPHDQWWRFDSWXUHDQDVVXPSWLRQDUH H[SUHVVHG DV DVVXPLQJ DQGH[FOXGLQJ DQG DUHXVHGLQ QDPHV 0DWKHPDWLFDORSHUDWLRQVFDOOHGWUDQVIRUPDWLRQVDUHVXSSRUWHGEXWDUHXVHGLQYHU\IHZ QDPHVH[FHSWIRUWHQGHQF\RI LH WLPHGHULYDWLYHXVHGLQQDPHV 2WKHUQDPHFDWHJRULHVDUH $WPRVSKHULF'\QDPLFV&ORXG+\GURORJ\2FHDQ'\QDPLFV5DGLDWLRQ 6HD,FHDQG6XUIDFH 7KHSXUSRVHRIWKLVVXPPDU\LVQRWWREHRYHUO\FULWLFDOEXWUDWKHU WR FODULI\ WKH UHODWLYHO\ QDUURZ VFRSH RI WKHVH QDPHV GHVSLWH WKHLU QXPEHU DQG ZLGHVSUHDG XVH$ FURVVZDONEHWZHHQWKHVHDQGWKH&6'066WDQGDUG1DPHVLVXQGHUGHYHORSPHQW &8$+6,9DULDEOH1DPH&RQWUROOHG9RFDEXODU\ 7KH&8$+6,&RQWUROOHG9RFDEXODU\&9LVFRPSRVHGRIVHSDUDWH&9V&8$+6,7RJHWKHU WKHVHSURYLGHVWDQGDUGL]HGQDPHVWKDWFDQEHXVHGWRSRSXODWHILHOGVLQWDEOHVWKDWVXSSRUW&8$+6, 2'0Y2EVHUYDWLRQDO'DWD0RGHO 7KH9DULDEOH1DPH&9SURYLGHVVWDQGDUGL]HGQDPHVWKDW VXSSRUWK\GURORJLFREVHUYDWLRQVRUPHDVXUHPHQWV $OOEXWDERXWRIWKHVHQDPHVDUHIRUZDWHU FKHPLVWU\DQG ELRWD/LNHPDQ\&9V WKHVH DUH YHU\ PXFK D ZRUN LQ SURJUHVV DQGDUH GHVLJQHG WR EHH[WHQGHGE\WKHK\GURORJLFFRPPXQLW\ +RZHYHUWKH\FXUUHQWO\PHHWYHU\IHZRIWKHGHVLJQFULWH ULDGLVFXVVHGSUHYLRXVO\ 7KH\DOVRFRQWDLQYHU\IHZQDPHVIRUEUDQFKHVRIK\GURORJ\VXFKDVVQRZ K\GURORJ\RSHQFKDQQHOIORZLQILOWUDWLRQWKHRU\HYDSRUDWLRQVRLOSK\VLFVJODFLRORJ\DQGK\GURPHWH RURORJ\ 0DQ\WHUPVDUHGRPDLQVSHFLILFDQGQRWSUHFLVHHQRXJKWREHXVHGIRUVHPDQWLFPHGLDWLRQ DFURVVKHWHURJHQHRXVUHVRXUFHV6HH=DVODYVN\HWDODQGUHIHUHQFHVWKHUHLQ & 21&/86,216$1' ) 8785( : 25. 7KH SUREOHP RI VHPDQWLF PHGLDWLRQ EHWZHHQ KHWHURJHQHRXV UHVRXUFHV HJ PRGHOV DQG GDWD VHWV KDVEHHQH[DPLQHGDQGDUWLFXODWHGDVDVHWRIGHVLJQFULWHULDIRUDGHVLUHGVROXWLRQ $VHWRIFURVV GRPDLQ QDPLQJ FRQYHQWLRQV FDOOHG WKH &6'06 6WDQGDUG 1DPHV ZDV GHVFULEHG WKDW PHHWV WKHVH GHVLJQFULWHULD:KLOHVWLOODZRUNLQSURJUHVVDPRUHFRPSOHWHGHVFULSWLRQFDQEHIRXQGRQWKH&6'06 ZHEVLWH DW ŤŴťŮŴįŤŰŭŰųŢťŰįŦťŶİŸŪŬŪİńŔŅŎŔŠŔŵŢůťŢųťŠŏŢŮŦŴ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ũŵŵűĻİİŤŧĮűŤŮťŪįŭŭůŭįŨŰŷİťŰŤŶŮŦůŵŴİŤŧĮŴŵŢůťŢųťĮůŢŮŦŴİ $FFHVVHG 0DUFK &8$+6, 0DVWHU &RQWUROOHG 9RFDEXODU\ 5HJLVWU\ IRU 2'0 ũŵŵűĻİİũŪŴįŤŶŢũŴŪįŰųŨİġ ŮŢŴŵŦųŤŷųŦŨİ$FFHVVHG0DUFK 'XQODS5//0DUN65XJDEHU9%DODML-&KDVWDQJ/&LQTXLQL&'H/XFD'0LGGOHWRQDQG6 0XUSK\(DUWK6\VWHP&XUDWRU 0HWDGDWDLQIUDVWUXFWXUHIRUFOLPDWHPRGHOLQJ(DUWK6FLHQFH ,QIRUPDWLFV–– *UHJHUVHQ-%3-$*LMVEHUVDQG6-3:HVWHQ2SHQ0,2SHQPRGHOOLQJLQWHUIDFH-+\ GURLQIRUPDWLFV– 3HFNKDP6'(:++XWWRQDQG%1RUULV$FRPSRQHQWEDVHGDSSURDFKWRLQWHJUDWHGPRGHO LQJLQWKHJHRVFLHQFHV7KH'HVLJQRI&6'06&RPSXWHUV*HRVFLHQFHVVSHFLDOLVVXH0RGHOLQJ IRU(QYLURQPHQWDO&KDQJH– =DVODYVN\,'9DOHQWLQH5+RRSHU03LDVHFNL$&RXFK$%HGLJ&RPPXQLW\SUDFWLFHVIRU QDPLQJDQGPDQDJLQJK\GURORJLFYDULDEOHV$:5$6SULQJ6SHFLDOW\&RQI0DUFK 3DJH
© Copyright 2026 Paperzz