Tree Physiology 28, 1525–1533 © 2008 Heron Publishing—Victoria, Canada Analyses of δ13C and δ18O in tree rings of Callitris columellaris provide evidence of a change in stomatal control of photosynthesis in response to regional changes in climate LOUISE E. CULLEN,1 MARK A. ADAMS,1,2 MARTI J. ANDERSON3 and PAULINE F. GRIERSON1,4 1 Ecosystems Research Group, School of Plant Biology, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley WA 6009, Australia 2 Present address: Lawson-Paterson Centre, Faculty of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources, The University of Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia 3 Department of Statistics, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, New Zealand 4 Corresponding author ([email protected]) Received March 10, 2008; accepted June 4, 2008; published online August 1, 2008 Summary We examined relationships between stable isotopes of carbon (δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O) in tree rings of Callitris columellaris F. Muell in the semi-arid Pilbara region of north-western Australia. To test the hypothesis that stomatal control of photosynthesis decreases during drier periods, we developed δ13C and δ18O chronologies spanning 1919–1999, and used a permutation regression approach to relate a 21-year running correlation between δ13C and δ18O to rainfall and temperature at Marble Bar and our study site. The relationship between δ13C and δ18O switched from being always negative before 1955 to being consistently positive after 1976, suggesting an increase in stomatal control of photosynthesis in recent decades. Changes in the δ13C–δ18O relationship reflected changes in rainfall, which has increased in the region by 30% since 1976. The correlation between δ13C and δ18O was positively related to the 21-year running mean of normalized rainfall anomalies at both the study site (P = 0.045, Adj. r 2 = 0.47) and Marble Bar (P = 0.046, Adj. r 2 = 0.48). In addition, the δ13C–δ18O correlation was negatively related (P = 0.047, Adj. r 2 = 0.61) to temperatures at Marble Bar. Our interpretation of the role of changes in climate affecting the relationship between tree-ring δ13C and δ18O is supported by evidence from the isotope composition of foliage samples: foliar δ13C and δ18O were negatively correlated with log stomatal conductance (δ13C, r = –0.41; δ18O, r = –0.42), whereas the correlation between foliar δ13C and δ18O was positive (r = 0.63, P = 0.027) after the summer wet period. Our data indicate that stomatal control of photosynthesis in Callitris adjusts to region-wide changes in climate and that, in a warmer and drier world, trees might adapt by increasing non-stomatal control of photosynthesis. Keywords: dendrochronology, non-stomatal limitations, Pilbara, rainfall, semi-arid, temperature. Introduction Stomata regulate both water loss (via transpiration) and carbon gain (via photosynthesis) (e.g., Farquhar and Sharkey 1982), but there remains some debate about the dominance of stomatal limitations to photosynthesis (Flexas and Medrano 2002). The degree of stomatal limitation is highly dependent on environmental conditions, but appears to be most important during drought (Flexas and Medrano 2002, Macfarlane et al. 2004). For example, drought reduced stomatal limitations to photosynthesis in studies of physiological responses to seasonal or interannual changes in water availability (Teskey et al. 1986, Wilson et al. 2000) and in manipulative experiments (e.g., Giorio et al. 1999). However, long-lived species such as trees experience multi-decadal shifts in environmental conditions that alter stomatal properties. For example, an elevated CO2 concentration reduces stomatal density, with the effect being more noticeable at decadal or longer time-scales than in short-term field experiments (Hetherington and Woodward 2003). Alterations in the physical properties of stomata (size, density) with environmental changes are fairly well documented; however, questions remain about how stomatal limitations to photosynthesis respond to long-term variation in climate. In particular, we lack information for inland continental semiarid or arid environments (up to 500 or 250 mm rainfall per annum), whereas there have been numerous studies on stomatal limitations in species from temperate (e.g., Kaiser and Kappen 2000, Gunderson et al. 2002, Tissue et al. 2005) and Mediterranean (e.g., Gulías et al. 2002, Medrano et al. 2002, Grassi and Magnani 2005) regions. Arid and semi-arid environments are characterized by highly variable rainfall and both the amount of rainfall and its variability have significant effects on biological processes (Noy-Meir 1973). Improved understanding of how climate variability influences stomatal control of carbon exchange between trees and the atmosphere is also of wider significance given the climate change predictions of reduced rainfall and pronounced cycles of drought and heavy rain for many areas (IPCC 2001). Measurements of the abundance of stable isotopes of carbon 1526 CULLEN, ADAMS, ANDERSON AND GRIERSON (δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O) in tree rings are increasingly used to reconstruct climates of the recent past and their influence on physiological processes, especially carbon fixation (Leavitt and Long 1989, Robertson et al. 1997, Barbour et al. 2002, Adams and Kolb 2004). Interpretations of isotope ratios in wood owe much to our knowledge of the effects of leaf-level physiological processes on isotope ratios in plants (Farquhar et al. 1982, Yakir 1992, Barbour and Farquhar 2000, Barbour et al. 2000). Nevertheless, the well-described dependence of δ13C on the ratio of intercellular to atmospheric CO2 concentrations (Ci /Ca) (Farquhar et al. 1982) provides limited information about the strength of stomatal control of Ci and photosynthesis (A), because a change in Ci (inferred from δ13C) could be the result of a change in either stomatal conductance (gs ) or A. Greater understanding of stomatal processes can be gleaned from simultaneous analyses of δ13C and δ18O, because the latter is unaffected by photosynthetic activity (Yakir 1992). Instead, δ18O composition of plant matter reflects not only that of source water and isotopic exchange between organic compounds and plant water, but also the effect of humidity on evaporative enrichment of leaf water (Yakir 1992, Roden and Ehleringer 2000, Barbour 2007). More significantly for studies focused on stomatal limitations, δ18O is often negatively correlated with gs, because changes in gs and transpiration with humidity alter leaf temperatures and evaporative enrichment (Barbour et al. 2000). The negative relationship between δ18O and gs has significant potential to help disentangle the causes of variation in δ13C (Farquhar et al. 1998, Adams and Grierson 2001, Barbour 2007). If gs is the dominant limitation, then δ13C and δ18O will be positively correlated. As a simple example, an increase in gs will decrease evaporative enrichment in 18O by cooling the leaf and increase discrimination against 13C (more negative δ13C), because the CO2 supply is greater (Farquhar et al. 1998). However, if photosynthetic capacity drives variation in δ13C, then variation in gs can be detected from δ18O and the two isotopes will be either negatively or not correlated (Farquhar et al. 1998). The potential for δ18O to help separate biochemical from stomatal conductance effects on δ13C appears greatest in water-limited environments. Source water δ18O can explain up to 99% of the variation in δ18O of wood for species in temperate environments (Roden and Ehleringer 1999). However, Ferrio and Voltas (2005) concluded that, for δ18O of wood in the drought-adapted Mediterranean conifer Pinus halepensis Mill., changes in δ18O of rainfall in the order of 1.5‰ were masked by a strong transpiration effect on leaf water δ18O. Furthermore, numerous studies have indicated that simultaneous measurements of δ13C and δ18O in leaves or tree-rings can be used to investigate relative stomatal limitations to photosynthesis by inferring stomatal behavior (Sternberg et al. 1989, Saurer et al. 1997, Scheidegger et al. 2000, Barbour et al. 2002, Barbour 2007). We used a dendrochronological (tree ring) approach, combined with recently developed analytical techniques (Biondi 2000, Biondi and Waikul 2004), to interpret correlations between δ13C and δ18O in tree rings of Callitris columellaris F. Muell (Cupressaceae) growing in the semi-arid Pilbara re- gion of north-western Australia (Figure 1). Callitris columellaris (formerly C. glaucophylla: revised by Farjon (2005)) is one of the few species in mainland Australia suitable for an investigation of multi-decadal adjustment in physiological processes in semi-arid environments. The species is relatively long-lived (250 years), has clear annual rings that can be cross-dated (LaMarche et al. 1979) and used for isotope analysis (Cullen and Grierson 2006, 2007). The Pilbara has hot summers, low annual rainfall (310 mm) and high variability in rainfall both within and among years (Bureau of Meteorology 1995). We aimed to determine whether control of stomatal conductance on photosynthesis in C. columellaris varied through time in response to changes in climate over several decades. We hypothesized that relative stomatal control of photosynthesis, as indicated by a positive correlation between tree-ring δ13C and δ18O, is greater during wetter periods. Conversely, during dry periods, stomatal conductance will be suppressed and photosynthetic capacity more limiting, the result being that the two isotopes are either negatively correlated, or show no relationship. Hence, we expected correlations between δ13C and δ18O to be positively related to rainfall and relative humidity and negatively related to temperature. We provide support for our interpretations of changes in the correlation between tree-ring δ13C and δ18O based on measurements of these isotopes in foliage samples collected just after the summer wet period and during the following dry period as a modern-day analogue for historical changes in water availability. Figure 1. Location of study site in the central Pilbara region, northwestern Australia. TREE PHYSIOLOGY VOLUME 28, 2008 CLIMATE CHANGE AND STOMATAL CONTROL OF PHOTOSYNTHESIS Materials and methods Study site and field sampling In the Pilbara region of north-western Australia, C. columellaris is primarily confined to south-facing gullies and gorges, where it is relatively well protected from the frequent fires of the floodplains and upper slopes. We selected a representative gully (22°51′05″ S, 118°37′40″ E), about 150 km north-west of the township of Newman containing a stand of C. columellaris (Figure 1). Mean yearly rainfall at Newman is 313 mm, over 60% of which falls between December and March. Rainfall is often associated with cyclones or rain-bearing low-pressure belts (Bureau of Meteorology 1995). Daytime temperatures at Newman in summer (late November to March) range from 26 to 40 °C, whereas winter temperatures are between 12 and 26 °C. Similar seasonal changes in climate are observed at several other meteorological stations in the inland Pilbara. In April and May 2003, 11 cores of 5-mm diameter were extracted from eight C. columellaris trees in the gully. Foliage samples were collected from 12 trees in May 2004 and nine trees in July 2004. Rainfall at the study site in the 3 months before May averages 136 mm and is more than twice that of the 3-month period leading up to the end of July (65 mm). To examine the relationship between foliar isotope composition and stomatal conductance, we measured foliage gas exchange in May 2004 with a CIRAS-1 Infrared Gas Analyzer equipped with a Parkinson automatic PLC(broad) leaf cuvette (PPSystems, Amesbury, MA). Stable isotope analysis Cores were air dried and hand-sanded with sand paper up to 1200 grit. Visual cross-matching and skeleton plots were used to assign a calendar date to each ring (Stokes and Smiley 1968). Wood from each year of each core was separated with a razor blade, oven-dried (60 °C) and then combined on a drymass basis. In C. columellaris, removal of non-cellulose components in tree rings appears necessary to produce δ13C and δ18O chronologies that have stable relationships with climate (Cullen and Grierson 2006). Consequently, resins, lignin and hemicellulose were removed from the wood material with diglyme-HCl followed by bleaching with acidified chlorite (Cullen and Macfarlane 2005). Finely ground subsamples of bulk foliage and extracted cellulose (2–2.5 mg) were weighed into tin capsules for δ13C analysis and corresponding subsamples of 0.22–0.27 mg were weighed into silver capsules for δ18O analysis. Isotope analyses were undertaken at the Western Australian Biogeochemistry Centre, University of Western Australia in Perth. Carbon isotope ratios were measured with an ANCA S/L-20/20 mass spectrometer system (PDZ Europa, UK). The precision of the ANCA system, calculated as the mean standard deviation of a minimum of five replicates of an internal laboratory reference (radish collegate; δ13C = –28.61 ‰) included in each run, was 0.13‰. The δ18O values of foliage and xylem water were measured with a High Temperature Conversion/Elemental Analyser (TC/EA) coupled to a Finnigan DELTA+XL mass spectrometer (Thermo Electron Corporation, Bremen, Ger- 1527 many). Internal lab standards for δ18O analysis of foliage were laboratory-grade sucrose (35.35‰, precision = 0.66‰) and benzoic acid (20.05‰, precision = 0.41‰). For each batch of analyses, 10% of the samples were analyzed twice to check homogeneity of sample preparation: mean standard deviation of sample replicates was 0.18‰ for δ13C and 0.49‰ for δ18O. Values of δ13C are reported as the 13C/12C ratio relative to the Vienna PeeDee Belemnite standard, and δ18O values are reported as the 18O/16O ratio relative to the Vienna SMOW standard. The raw δ13C chronology exhibited a decline in δ13C beginning around 1955, which we attributed to the lowering of δ13C of air through anthropogenic-related increases in CO2 concentration (the “Suess effect,” see Keeling et al. 2005 and Cullen and Grierson 2007). We removed this trend in the carbon isotope chronology by using the annual records of past atmospheric δ13C obtained from ice cores (Francey et al. 1999). Moving correlation between δ13C and δ18O Biondi (2000) proposed that subtle temporal changes in climate–tree growth relationships could be examined based on multiple, overlapping periods (moving intervals). For example, using a moving principal component regression model (response function), Biondi (2000) identified increased sensitivity of growth in Douglas-fir to summer water stress since the 1970s. We used similar running or moving correlations between δ13C and δ18O to investigate temporal variation in stomatal control of photosynthesis. The correlation between δ13C and δ18O was calculated for overlapping 21-year periods, with an advance each time of one year, i.e., 1919–1939, 1920–1940 and so on. The correlation coefficients were then plotted as a function of the middle year of each period. Climate data Rainfall and temperature data were obtained from Marble Bar, the meteorological station closest to our field site (~220 km away; Figure 1) with long-term records extending back to at least 1919. We also obtained climate data for our site, going back to 1889, using the Data Drill service provided by the Queensland Department of Natural Resources and Mines. Data Drill accesses grids of climate data interpolated to a 0.05° (~5 km) spatial resolution from point observations using splining and kriging techniques (Jeffrey et al. 2001). Relative humidity (RH) records at Marble Bar began only in 1939; too short for use in this study. Instead we used the maximum and minimum temperature data provided by Data Drill to calculate monthly RH according to Equation 1, with the minimum temperature as an estimate of dewpoint temperature: RH = es 100 ea (1) where es and e a are saturated and actual vapor pressure, respectively. Vapor pressure (e(T )) was calculated as: TREE PHYSIOLOGY ONLINE at http://heronpublishing.com 1528 CULLEN, ADAMS, ANDERSON AND GRIERSON 17.27 T e( T ) = 0.6108 exp T + 273.3 (2) where T is the maximum temperature for es and the dewpoint temperature for ea (FAO 1998). Relative humidity, calculated with Equations 1 and 2, was significantly and positively correlated with RH at Marble Bar over the period common to both data series, 1939–2004 (r = 0.78). We normalized mean January–February relative humidity and maximum (daytime) temperatures and total January–February rainfalls relative to the 1919–1999 mean and standard deviation for each series. We used data for January and February because tree-ring isotopes in C. columellaris were most strongly correlated with climate in these summer months (Cullen and Grierson 2007). Annual summer rainfall and temperature anomalies at Marble Bar and the study site were significantly and positively correlated (r = 0.76 and 0.83, P < 0.001). For each climate series, we calculated 21-year running means for the same periods as the moving correlation between δ13C and δ18O. Relating changes in the δ13C–δ18O correlation to climate Overlapping time periods in the running correlations between δ13C and δ18O and the running means of climate variables invalidate the assumption of independence required by parametric regression analysis. We therefore used a permutation approach (Manly 1991, Anderson and Legendre 1999) to investigate relationships between climate and the δ13C–δ18O correlation. The permutation method provides a test of a statistic such as t (produced from a regression analysis) by calculating the probability of getting a value equal to or higher than the observed t by recalculating t after random re-orderings (permutations) of exchangeable units under a relevant null hypothesis (Anderson 2001a). Based on a null hypothesis that correlations between δ13C and δ18O are not related to climate, all possible pairings of the isotope and climate data are equally likely (Manly 1991, Anderson 2001a). The significance, or P-value, of the test is calculated as: P= No. of t * ≥ t Total no. of permutations (3) where t* is the value of t calculated from the regression analysis using the permuted data, t is the value of the observed statistic and the total number of permutations includes the original ordering of the observed data. Construction of a permutation test requires a decision as to which units are to be reordered, but exchanging units under the null hypothesis assumes that the observations are independent (Anderson 2001b). Hence, for the analysis of the relationship between the isotope correlation and climate, the permutable units are the two isotope series, not the running correlation between them. However, the raw isotope data are ordered as a time-series and are, therefore, inherently not interchangeable (Manly 1991). To remove the autocorrelation in the isotope data, we fitted an autoregressive (AR) model to each series: for both series, the selected model based on the Akaike Information Criterion was an AR(1) process. The resulting residuals obtained after fitting the AR(1) model were then used as the permutable units. We calculated the regression coefficients, r 2 and the t-statistic from a simple linear regression between the running correlation between the residual isotope series and each of the 21-year running means of normalized climate anomalies. The residual δ13C and δ18O isotope series were each separately reordered, the running correlations recalculated, and the regression analysis repeated, with a total of 4999 permutations of the residuals. The P-value of each test was calculated with Equation 3. Results Tree-ring isotope correlations Although individual correlations between δ13C and δ18O were significant (P < 0.05) for just two periods (Figure 2a, black line), there was, nonetheless, a striking change in the running correlation between tree-ring δ13C and δ18O over the last 80 years. The running correlation changed from being always negative from 1929 to 1955, moving through a transition phase during 1956–1975 and then became consistently positive after 1976 (Figure 2a). Specifically, between 1929 and 1955, the correlation between δ13C and δ18O averaged –0.32, whereas between 1949 and 1952 the correlation reached its most negative and was significant, ranging from –0.45 to –0.47. After 1976, the relationship between the isotopes averaged +0.34. The shift in the correlation between the isotopes is not a result of trivial occasional discrepancies in isotope values or trends (Figure 2b). In particular, if the 13C and 18O data for 1942 were replaced with the mean for 1922 to 1962, the correlation between the isotopes is still always negative before 1955 (Figure 2a, gray line). Up until 1955, above-average δ13C values were matched by below-average δ18O (and vice versa). The positive correlation after 1976, however, reflects general reductions in δ13C and δ18O, as well as coherency from year-to-year in terms of the direction of change (Figure 2b). Tree-ring δ13C ranged from –18.80 to –24.95‰, whereas tree ring δ18O ranged from 29.49 to 38.97‰ (see Cullen and Grierson 2007 for full isotope chronologies). Relationship between the δ13C–δ18O correlation and climate The relationship between δ13C and δ18O was significantly and positively related to rainfall. The permutation test of the linear regression between rainfall at the study site or Marble Bar and the δ13C–δ18O correlation provides evidence to reject our null hypothesis of no relationship between the δ13C–δ18O correlation and rainfall (Figure 3). Instead, the shift from a negative to a positive correlation between δ13C and δ18O reflects an increase in rainfall in the region. Between 1919 and 1955, when the correlation between δ13C and δ18O was negative, summer (January–February) rainfall at the study site was 20% (27 mm) below average (Figure 4a), whereas at Marble Bar it was around 12% (20 mm) below average (Figure 4b). Further- TREE PHYSIOLOGY VOLUME 28, 2008 CLIMATE CHANGE AND STOMATAL CONTROL OF PHOTOSYNTHESIS 1529 Figure 2. (a) Running correlation between tree-ring δ13C and δ18O: black line is the correlation calculated based on measured isotope data, and the gray line is the correlation when the data for 1942 were replaced with the mean for 1922 to 1962. Correlations were calculated for overlapping 21-year periods, with an advance each time of 1 year. The correlation coefficients are plotted as a function of the middle year of each period. The vertical dashed lines indicate the points where the correlation between δ13C and δ18O began to increase (1955) and where the correlation between the isotopes became consistently positive (1976). The horizontal dashed lines indicate the 0.05 significance level. (b) The δ13C and δ18O (‰) chronologies, expressed as anomalies from their 1919–1999 mean and standard deviation, developed from tree rings of C. columellaris in the central Pilbara. more, between 1949 and 1952, when the relationship between δ13C and δ18O was significantly negative, summer rainfall was over 80 mm below average at both the study site and Marble Bar. During much of the transition period in the δ13C–δ18O relationship, summer rainfall was average, and began to increase only in the 1970s (Figures 2 and 4). Since 1976, rainfall has been 30% (40 mm) above the long-term mean at the study site and at Marble Bar, corresponding to the period of consistently positive correlations between δ13C and δ18O. Replacing the isotope data for 1942 with the mean of 1922–1962 had only a small effect on the regression results (study site: y = 0.87x + 0.12, P = 0.058, Adj. r 2 = 0.43; Marble Bar: y = 0.88x + 0.09, P = 0.015, Adj. r 2 = 0.61). There was no evidence of a significant influence of relative humidity at the study site on the δ13C–δ18O relationship (observed t = 1.93, P = 0.337, Adj. r 2 = 0.04). This reflects the clear difference between temporal patterns in relative humidity compared with the δ13C–δ18O relationship (Figures 2 and 4c). Unlike rainfall, periods of above- or below-average relative humidity over the last 80 years do not coincide with changes in the relationship between tree-ring δ13C and δ18O. The δ13C–δ18O relationship was significantly and negatively related to temperature at Marble Bar (Figure 5a). If the 13 C and 18O data for 1942 are substituted with the corresponding means for 1922–1962, the relationship between Marble Bar temperature and the isotope correlation is still negative, but non-significant (Observed t = –7.80, P = 0.074, Adj. r 2 = 0.50). A multiple regression with temperature and rainfall at Marble Bar as the predictors did not explain much additional variation in the δ13C–δ18O correlation (Adj. r 2 = 0.69). Summer temperatures at Marble Bar have varied over the last 80 years in an opposite manner to rainfall and the two variables display a significant negative linear relationship (r = –0.78, P < 0.05). Before 1955, mean summer maximum temperatures were 0.5 °C above the long-term mean of 40.4 °C, whereas since 1976, temperatures at Marble Bar have been 0.46 °C below the long-term mean (Figure 6). Unlike Marble Bar, temperature anomalies during January–February at the study site exhibit little long-term variation (Figure 6). Correspondingly, a permutation test provided no evidence to reject our null hypothesis that the δ13C–δ18O correlation and temperature are not related at the study site (Figure 5b). Figure 3. Relationships between the 21-year running correlation between the δ13C and δ18O residual series and the 21-year running mean of total summer (January–February) rainfall anomalies at (a) the study site and (b) Marble Bar. The δ13C and δ18O residual series were produced from the raw isotope series by fitting an autoregressive (AR) model of order 1. TREE PHYSIOLOGY ONLINE at http://heronpublishing.com 1530 CULLEN, ADAMS, ANDERSON AND GRIERSON Figure 4. January–February rainfall anomalies at the (a) study site, based on data provided by the SILO Data Drill service and (b) Marble Bar. (c) January–February relative humidity (RH) anomalies at the study site, calculated with Equations 2 and 3. Anomalies (gray lines) were calculated as the difference between the individual value and the mean of the entire series divided by the standard deviation of the series. Black lines are smoothing splines with a frequency response cut-off of 40 years to indicate longer-term (multi-decadal) trends. The vertical dashed lines indicate the points where the correlation between δ13C and δ18O began to increase (1955) and where the correlation between the isotopes became consistently positive (1976) (see Figure 2). Discussion Foliage isotope correlations and gas exchange Consistent with theoretical expectations, δ C and δ O composition of bulk foliage collected in May 2004 were negatively correlated with log stomatal conductance (loge gs ) (δ13C, r = –0.41; δ18O, r = –0.42): trees with higher gs (which varied 6-fold between trees) tended to have foliage more depleted in 18 O and 13C. Also, and consistent with our interpretation that the change from drier and hotter summers to wetter and cooler summers in the last two decades has caused the change from a negative to a positive correlation between tree-ring δ13C and δ18O, foliage δ13C and δ18O in May 2004 (just after the summer wet period) were positively and significantly correlated (r = 0.63, P = 0.027; Figure 7a), whereas in July (midwinter dry period) there was a negative albeit nonsignificant relationship between foliage δ13C and δ18O (r = –0.41, P = 0.264; Figure 7b). 13 18 Long-term changes in relative stomatal limitations to photosynthesis Over the past 80 years, stomatal control of photosynthesis in Callitris columellaris has seemingly varied, with a clear shift in the middle of the 20th century. Between 1919 and 1955, tree rings that were relatively enriched in 18O were more depleted in 13C and vice versa. We interpret the consistently negative correlation between the isotopes before 1955 as indicating that stomatal conductance, gs, was not the only source of variation in tree-ring δ13C. Instead, variation in δ13C and, therefore, CO2 concentration within leaves (Ci ) was also partly a result of varying demand for CO2 by photosynthesis (Farquhar et al. 1998). In the second half of the 20th century, and after 1976 in particular, tree-rings have been consistently either enriched or Figure 5. Relationships between the 21-year running correlation between the δ13C and δ18O residual series and the 21-year running mean of the January–February daytime temperature anomalies at (a) Marble Bar and (b) the study site. The δ13C and δ18O residual series were produced from the raw isotope series by fitting an autoregressive (AR) model of order 1. TREE PHYSIOLOGY VOLUME 28, 2008 CLIMATE CHANGE AND STOMATAL CONTROL OF PHOTOSYNTHESIS 1531 Figure 6. January–February temperature anomalies at (a) study site and (b) Marble Bar. Anomalies (gray lines) were calculated as the difference between the individual value and the mean of the entire series divided by the standard deviation of the series. Black lines are smoothing splines with a frequency response cut-off of 40 years to indicate longer-term (multi-decadal) trends. The vertical dashed lines indicate the points where the correlation between δ13C and δ18O began to increase (1955) and where the correlation between the isotopes became consistently positive (1976) (see Figure 2). depleted in both 18O and 13C. The shift to a consistently positive correlation between tree-ring δ13C and δ18O suggests increased stomatal control of Ci and, therefore, of photosynthesis. Our data suggest variation in photosynthetic capacity still exerts a controlling influence on Ci because the correlations between the isotopes were not strong. If photosynthetic capacity were unimportant, then more of the variation in δ13C would be attributed to gs and tree-ring δ13C and δ18O would be highly correlated. We did not detrend our data to remove non-climatic influences on isotope composition, such as the increase in δ13C with tree age (Fessenden and Ehleringer 2002). Consequently, increased noise in the dataset may have dampened the correlation between the isotopes. In addition, recent studies have placed a renewed emphasis on the role of mesophyll conductance (affecting the movement of CO2 from the internal cavities within leaves to the sites of carboxylation within chloroplasts) in limiting photosynthesis (Flexas et al. 2008, Siebt et al. 2008). In particular, Siebt et al. (2008), in a reanalysis of published 13C data, found that variation in mesophyll conductance can be large enough to account for temporal, species or site differences in 13C. In our case, variation in internal conductance of CO2 may contribute to year-to-year differences in tree-ring 13C, also potentially dampening the correlation be- tween 13C and 18O. Nevertheless, we argue that, according to our simple model and relative to the period before 1955, stomatal limitations to photosynthesis in C. columellaris have increased in the last 40 years. In support of this assertion, we found that foliage (and trees) with greater gs was more depleted in 18O and 13C, as predicted by theory (Farquhar et al. 1982, 1998, Yakir 1992). A positive relationship between δ13C and δ18O has been linked to a negative relationship between leaf δ13C and δ18O and gs in wheat (Barbour et al. 2000), cotton (Barbour and Farquhar 2000) and European beech (Keitel et al. 2006). Changes in stomatal limitations to photosynthesis with climate At the scale of decades, the isotopic evidence for a change in stomatal control of photosynthesis in C. columellaris matches clear shifts in climate: the δ13C–δ18O correlation was positively related to rainfall, but negatively related to temperature. Both (1) the negative correlation between the isotopes and (2) enrichment of tree-ring δ18O before 1955, imply that lower rainfall and higher temperatures dampened stomatal conductance to limit water loss⎯a typical response of plants to water stress (Chaves et al. 2003). Consistent with this interpretation, we found foliar δ13C and δ18O tended to be negatively related, Figure 7. Relationship between δ13C and δ18O of foliage in (a) May and (b) July 2004. TREE PHYSIOLOGY ONLINE at http://heronpublishing.com 1532 CULLEN, ADAMS, ANDERSON AND GRIERSON albeit not significantly, during the winter dry period (August). This response to water stress suggests that, before 1955, gs was unlikely to be the main cause of the year-to-year variations in photosynthesis and δ13C ratios. Similarly, in black spruce seedlings, repeated drought reduced both the sensitivity of stomatal conductance to drought and stomatal control of photosynthesis (Stewart et al. 1994). Our results are consistent with those of Flexas and Medrano (2002), who concluded that metabolic processes are progressively inhibited during drought to the point that metabolic impairment becomes the major limitation to photosynthesis, notwithstanding stomatal closure. The switch to a positive relationship between tree-ring δ13C and δ18O after 1955 coincides with an increase in summer rainfall, and a corresponding decrease in temperature in the region beginning around 1960 (Hennessy et al. 1999). Positive relationships between δ13C and δ18O are expected when water is less limiting because there a reduced need to limit water loss and stomata can operate over a wide range of water availability (Scheidegger et al. 2000). Previous studies have related positive δ13C–δ18O relationships to gradients in soil water content (Saurer et al. 1997), changes in humidity of canopy air associated with decreased land-use intensity (Scheidegger et al. 2000), vapor pressure deficits (Barbour et al. 2002) and phase changes in atmospheric circulation that, in turn, alter the importance of summer rains for plant growth (Welker et al. 2005). Although in our study a directional change in the 18O value of Pilbara rainfall could explain the decline in tree-ring 18 O since 1960, this appears unlikely. Rainfall over the northwest of Australia is largely oceanic in origin, being generally associated with cyclones or rain-bearing low-pressure belts (Bureau of Meteorology 1995). Hence, the local Meteoric Water Line, including 18O signatures, is unlikely to have changed. Rather, in the Pilbara region, increases in rainfall and humidity after 1960 appear to have increased stomatal conductance and its control of photosynthesis. Retrospective analyses such as this study are clearly unable to quantify stomatal limitations to photosynthesis directly (sensu Farquhar and Sharkey 1982). Nonetheless, the change in the relationship between carbon and oxygen isotopes in tree rings demonstrates significant adjustment of physiological characteristics over decades in response to region-wide changes in climate. Based on this study, we suggest that nonstomatal limitations to photosynthesis are likely to become increasingly important in areas where rainfall is expected to decrease. Acknowledgments This research was funded by the Australian Research Council in collaboration with Pilbara Iron Pty. Ltd. (LP0214150). 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