Integrative Zoology 2013; 8: 162–174 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 doi: 10.1111/1749-4877.12027 ORIGINAL ARTICLE Climate warming increases biodiversity of small rodents by favoring rare or less abundant species in a grassland ecosystem Guangshun JIANG,1,4 Jun LIU,2 Lei XU,4 Guirui YU,3 Honglin HE3 and Zhibin ZHANG4 1 College of Wildlife Resources, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, China, 2Inner Mongolia Center for Endemic Diseases Control and Research, Huhehot, China, 3Information Management Group for the Synthesis Center of Chinese Ecosystem Research Network, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China and 4 State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management of Pest Insects and Rodents in Agriculture, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China Abstract Our Earth is facing the challenge of accelerating climate change, which imposes a great threat to biodiversity. Many published studies suggest that climate warming may cause a dramatic decline in biodiversity, especially in colder and drier regions. In this study, we investigated the effects of temperature, precipitation and a normalized difference vegetation index on biodiversity indices of rodent communities in the current or previous year for both detrended and nondetrended data in semi-arid grassland of Inner Mongolia during 1982–2006. Our results demonstrate that temperature showed predominantly positive effects on the biodiversity of small rodents; precipitation showed both positive and negative effects; a normalized difference vegetation index showed positive effects; and cross-correlation function values between rodent abundance and temperature were negatively correlated with rodent abundance. Our results suggest that recent climate warming increased the biodiversity of small rodents by providing more benefits to population growth of rare or less abundant species than that of more abundant species in Inner Mongolia grassland, which does not support the popular view that global warming would decrease biodiversity in colder and drier regions. We hypothesized that higher temperatures might benefit rare or less abundant species (with smaller populations and more folivorous diets) by reducing the probability of local extinction and/or by increasing herbaceous food resources. Key words: climate change, cross-correlation function, rare species, small mammal biodiversity, time lag INTRODUCTION Correspondence: Zhibin Zhang, State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management of Pest Insects and Rodents in Agriculture, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China. Email: [email protected] 162 During the past century, our Earth has been experiencing obvious climate warming, especially in the Northern Hemisphere (Houghton et al. 2001). This, together with increasing human disturbances, may have caused a decline in biodiversity, which imposes a great threat to our living planet (Hillebrand & Matthiessen 2009). It is generally believed that there would be bio- © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 Climate warming and biodiversity diversity loss due to global climate change, especially in high-latitude and high-mountain biomes (McCarthy et al. 2001; Chapin et al. 2004). Klein et al. (2004) suggest that climate warming may cause dramatic declines in plant species diversity in high-elevation ecosystems over short time frames, with higher species losses occurring in drier sites under anthropogenic climate change. Levinsky et al. (2007) suggest that endemic species will be negatively affected by future climatic changes, while widely distributed species will be mildly affected; mammalian species richness is predicted to become dramatically reduced in the Mediterranean region but increased towards the northeast and at higher elevations. Rull and Vegas-Vilarrúbia (2006) estimate that roughly one-tenth to one-third of endemic vascular plant species would lose their habitats with the 2–4 °C temperature increase predicted for the region by AD 2100. There could be some unanticipated effects of global change on diversity, such as the restructuring of small mammal communities, significant loss of richness, and perhaps the rising dominance of native ‘weedy’ species (Blois et al. 2010). Based on the Holocene fossil record, Terry et al. (2011) suggest that under projections of increased temperature and decreased precipitation over the next 50 years, granivorous animals should thrive as communities become more dominated by individuals with a southern geographic affinity. Although many published studies suggest that climate warming will reduce biodiversity, experimental and field evidence is still lacking. It is necessary to look for evidence on how biodiversity responds to climate change (Svenning & Condit 2008). Temperature may affect biodiversity through interactions with precipitation and vegetation. It is generally believed that higher precipitation plus warmer temperature would produce high primary productivity, supporting higher biodiversity of ecosystems (Polis & Hurd 1996). There are strong correlations between species richness and altitude, longitude, precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration and sunlight for several groups of organisms (Fischer 1960; Currie & Paquin 1987; Currie 1991; Zhang et al. 2006). These patterns can be well modelled using spatial climate data (O’Brien 1998; Zhang et al. 2006). The most commonly observed patterns between biodiversity and climate are based on static spatial modelling analysis and are easily influenced by covariates between climate and geographic locations. Studies on relationships between biodiversity and climate based on long term time series data that remove or limit the co-varying effects of geographic factors are rare. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS In the semi-arid grassland of Inner Mongolia, Pei et al. (2009) report that the annual average temperature has increased all over the region during the past 40 years, increasing by 0.5 °C per decade from 1964– 1983 and by 0.9 °C per decade from 1984–2003. Jiang et al. (2011) found that climate (El Niño–Southern Oscillation, precipitation and temperature) and vegetation (normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI]) significantly affected population abundances of many rodent species in this region from 1982–2006. In this study, we investigated the impacts of climate and vegetation on the biodiversity of these small rodents based on long term data. Based on time series data for Inner Mongolia (cold and dry region), we aimed to test the following hypothesis: (i) climate warming may decrease the biodiversity of small rodents and (ii) climate warming may benefit more rare or less abundant species than more abundant species in their population growth. MATERIALS AND METHODS Study area The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region is located in northern China (37°24′–53°23′N, 97°12′–126°04′E) (see Fig. 1) and has a cold and dry climate. The annual average temperature range is −5 to 9 °C, with an average of 3.8 °C, and the precipitation is 150–500 mm, with an average of 326 mm. The winter ambient temperature has steadily increased by 0.5 to 0.9 °C per decade over the past 40 years (Zhai & Ren 1997). We analyzed the long term time series of rodent populations collected from 21 sites located in 21 counties of central Inner Mongolia, covering an area of 257 900 km2. The study sites and plant species of the grassland are described in detail by Jiang et al. (2011). Rodent abundance and species diversity Since 1982, the abundance of rodent populations has been surveyed twice a year by the Inner Mongolia Center for Endemic Diseases Control and Research (Table 1; for details, see Jiang et al. 2011). Over the past 25 years, 27 small rodent species have been captured. Among the 27 species, the predominant species were Brandt’s vole [Lasiopodomys brandtii (Radde, 1861)], the mid-day jird [Meriones meridianus (Pallas, 1773)], the striped dwarf hamster [Cricetulus barabensis (Pallas, 1773)], the Mongolian five-toed jerboa [Allactaga sibirica (Forster, 1778)], the desert hamster [Phodopus roborovskii (Satunin, 1903)] and the Mongolian jird [Meriones un- 163 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 G. Jiang et al. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 Climate data Legend Survey location Provineial boundary Inner Mongolia county boundary 0 125 250 500 km The monthly temperature and precipitation data covering all trapping sites during 1980−2006 had a spatial resolution of 10 × 10 km (http://www.cerndata.ac.cn/). We calculated the yearly and seasonal (Spring, Mar– May; Summer, Jun–Aug; Autumn, Sep–Nov; Winter, Dec–Feb) temperature and precipitation of each location based on the monthly data by using the spatial analysis tool (Zonal Statistics) in ArcGIS (ESRI 1996). The monthly data, as the amount or greenness of vegetation (Tucker et al. 1991), with the size of NDVI pixel being 64 km2 for the period of 1980−2006, was obtained from the Environmental and Ecological Science Data Center for West China, National Natural Science Foundation of China (http://westdc.westgis.ac.cn). We calculated the yearly NDVI of each location based on the monthly NDVI by using the spatial analysis tool (Zonal Statistics) in ArcGIS (ESRI 1996). Statistical analysis Figure 1 Survey locations in Inner Mongolia, China. guiculatus (Milne-Edwards, 1867)], in terms of average abundance and/or distribution locations. Their life history characteristics are presented in Table 1. Three biodiversity indices (i.e. the richness, the Shannon and the evenness indices) of rodent species in each of 21 locations were calculated by referring to Spellerberg and Fedor (2003) and Krebs (1989). We calculated the cross-correlation coefficients (CCFs) between biodiversity indices and climate or vegetation, following Shumway and Stoffer (2006). The rodent abundances of 16 species with enough long and continuous time series (more than 5 successive years) were calculated, following Jiang et al. (2011). The average abundance of each species was calculated by averaging the values over the entire study period. The CCFs between climate or vegetation and rodent abundances of the same 16 species were also obtained from Jiang et al. (2011). 164 We used both detrended and nondetrended data for statistical analysis; the former mainly contains annual variations, while the latter contains both annual and decadal variations. For the detrended data, the biodiversity index, climate and vegetation data were detrended using linear regression models with generalized least squares (Venables & Ripley 2002). We focused on data analysis of the effects of climate or vegetation on biodiversity of small rodents in the current year and 1-year time lag (the previous year). The CCFs of the seasonal yearly climate data and the yearly NDVI, and each biodiversity index in both the current year and the previous year were calculated for each location. We calculated the mean CCF coefficients by using bootstrap confidence intervals (CI) (based on 10 000 replications) to examine if the CCF coefficients overlap zero, following Efron and Tibshirani (1993) (see also Jiang et al. 2011). We calculated the mean CCF and 95% CI of each rodent species diversity index based on CCFs by of all locations (counties) of the relevant species. The significant in-phase (positive) association between 2 time series was defined if both the mean CCF and its 95% CI were larger than zero; the out-of-phase (negative) association was defined if both the mean CCF and its 95% CI were smaller than zero, following Lillegard et al. (2005) and Cheal et al. (2007) (see also Jiang et al. 2011). The CCFs between rodent abundance and climate or vegetation of 16 species represent the impact of climate © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS Mid-day jird Meriones meridianus (Pallas, 1773) Mongolian five-toed jerboa Allactaga sibirica (Forster, 1778) Striped dwarf hamster Cricetulus barabensis (Pallas, 1773) Large Japanese field mouse Apodemus speciosus (Temminck, 1844) Daurian pika Ochotona dauurica (Pallas, 1776) Desert hamster Phodopus roborovskii (Satunin, 1903) Northern three-toed jerboa Dipus sagitta (Pallas, 1773) Mongolian jird Non-hibernation Meriones unguiculatus (Milne-Edwards, 1867) Dzhungarian hamster Phodopus sungorus (Pallas, 1773) Thick-tailed jerboa Stylodipus telum (Lichtenstein, 1823) Eversman's hamster Allocricetulus eversmanni (Brandt, 1859) Daurian suslik Spermophilus dauricus Brandt, 1843 Gray dwarf hamster Cricetulus migratorius (Pallas, 1773) Narrow-skulled vole Microtus gregalis (Pallas, 1779) 2* 3* 4* 5* 6* © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS 7* 8* 9* 10* 11* 12* 13* 14* 15 Non-hibernation Non-hibernation Hibernation Non-hibernation Hibernation Non-hibernation Hibernation Non-hibernation Non-hibernation Non-hibernation Non-hibernation Hibernation Non-hibernation Non-hibernation Brandt’s vole Lasiopodomys brandtii (Radde, 1861) 1* Life history characteristics Species name Species code Social Solitary Solitary Solitary Solitary Solitary Social Solitary Solitary Social Social Solitary Social Solitary Social Diurnal Nocturnal Crepuscular and diurnality Nocturnal Nocturnal Nocturnal Crepuscular and diurnality Nocturnal Nocturnal Crepuscular and diurnality Nocturnal Nocturnal Nocturnal Nocturnal Crepuscular and diurnality Folivorous Granivorous Folivorous Granivorous Omnivorous Granivorous Granivorous Omnivorous Granivorous Folivorous Granivorous Ganivorous Omnivorous Granivorous Folivorous 1 7 4 12 4 13 14 12 15 1 1 21 20 10 4 Number of locations 0.148 ± 0.136 0.179 ± 0.037 0.198 ± 0.056 0.286 ± 0.038 0.300 ± 0.046 0.418 ± 0.050 0.498 ± 0.115 0.518 ± 0.043 0.531 ± 0.054 0.558 ± 0.301 0.862 ± 0.221 0.961 ± 0.087 0.973 ± 0.048 1.043 ± 0.189 1.705 ± 0.613 Average abundance ± SE Table 1 The life history characteristics, population abundance (individuals/100 trap nights) and number of distribution locations of 27 rodent species in Inner Mongolia during 1982–2006. Life history characteristics are mainly taken from Zhao (1981) and Luo et al. (2000). *Indicates the species for which enough long and continuous time series on rodent abundance was obtained to be used to analyze the effects of rodent abundance on cross-correlation coefficients between rodent abundance and climate or vegetation in Figs 5 and 6 Climate warming and biodiversity 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 165 166 Species name Five-toed pygmy jerboa Cardiocranius paradoxus Satunin, 1903 Maximowiczi's voles Microtus maximowiczii (Schrenk, 1859) Lesser long-tailed hamster Cricetulus longicaudatus (Milne-Edwards, 1867) Norway rat Rattus norvegicus (Berkenhout, 1769) Steppe pika Ochotona pusilla (Pallas, 1769) Red-cheeked ground squirrel Spermophilus erythrogenys Brandt, 1841 Greater long-tailed hamster Tscherskia triton (de Winton, 1899) Great gerbil Rhombomys opimus (Lichtenstein, 1823) Yellow steppe lemming Eolagurus luteus (Eversmann, 1840) Grey red-backed vole Clethrionomys rufocanus (Sundevall, 1846) House mouse Mus musculus Linnaeus, 1758 Striped field mouse Apodemus agrarius (Pallas, 1771) Species code 16* 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26* 27 Non-hibernation Non-hibernation Non-hibernation Non-hibernation Non-hibernation Non-hibernation Hibernation Non-hibernation Non-hibernation Non-hibernation Non-hibernation Hibernation Life history characteristics Solitary Social Social Solitary Social Solitary Solitary Social Social Solitary Social Solitary Nocturnal Nocturnal Nocturnal Diurnal Diurnal Crepuscular and diurnality Diurnal Diurnal Nocturnal Nocturnal Nocturnal Nocturnal Folivorous Omnivorous Folivorous Folivorous Folivorous Granivorous Folivorous Folivorous Omnivorous Granivorous Omnivorous Granivorous 1 10 1 3 1 4 2 4 8 5 4 3 Number of locations 0.000 ± <0.001 0.000 ± 0.014 0.005 ± 0.005 0.004 ± 0.005 0.005 ± 0.005 0.006 ± 0.006 0.007 ± 0.006 0.008 ± 0.003 0.020 ± 0.008 0.024 ± 0.015 0.024 ± 0.008 0.070 ± 0.017 Average abundance ± SE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 Table 1 Continued G. Jiang et al. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS Climate warming and biodiversity and vegetation on rodent abundance (Jiang et al. 2011). The strength of these associations may be related to rodent abundance of different species, or it may be different between rare or less abundant and more abundant species. We used the Pearson correlation analysis to test the significant correlations between these CCFs and rodent abundance of the 16 species. All statistical analyses were conducted by using the time series analysis (TSA) packages in the R software (R Development Core Team 2006). RESULTS Effects of temperature The current year, yearly and spring temperatures showed positive effects on richness for nondetrended data (Fig. 2a), and the yearly and winter temperatures showed positive effects on the Shannon index for both detrended and nondetrended data (Fig. 2b); spring temperature showed negative effects on the evenness index for detrended data (Fig. 2c); and summer temperature showed positive effects on the evenness index for nondetrended data (Fig. 2c). In the previous year (1-year time lag), the yearly and winter temperature showed positive effects on 3 biodiversity indices for both detrended and nondetrended data (Fig. 2a–c); spring temperature showed positive effects on the richness and evenness indices for both detrended and nondetrended data (Fig. 2a,c); autumn temperature showed negative effects on the richness index for detrended data (Fig. 2a) and positive effects on the Shannon index for both detrended and nondetrended data (Fig. 2b). Effect of precipitation In the current year, spring precipitation showed positive effects on 3 biodiversity indices for both detrended and nondetrended data (Fig. 3a–c); summer precipitation showed negative effects on the Shannon index for detrended and nondetrended data (Fig. 3b); autumn precipitation showed positive effects on the richness index for detrended and nondetrended data (Fig. 3a); and winter precipitation showed negative effects on both richness and evenness indices for both detrended and nondetrended data (Fig. 3a,c), and positive effects on the Shannon index for detrended data (Fig. 3b). In the previous year, autumn precipitation showed positive effects on the richness index for nondetrended data (Fig. 3a) and summer precipitation showed neg- © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS Figure 2 Effects of temperature on biodiversity of small rodents as measured by the means of cross-correlation coefficient value with 95% confidence interval for detrended and nondetrended data; *P < 0.05; (a) richness index, (b) Shannon index and (c) evenness index. In a–c, the left figures are for detrended and the right figures are for nondetrended data; the top figures are for the current year and the lower figures are for the previous year (1-year time lag). 167 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 G. Jiang et al. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 ative effects on the evenness index for both detrended and nondetrended data (Fig. 3c). Effect of normalized difference vegetation index In the current year, yearly NDVI showed positive effects on the evenness index for nondetrended data (Fig. 4c). In the previous year, yearly NDVI showed positive effects on the Shannon index for both detrended and nondetrended data (Fig. 4b), and showed positive effects on the evenness index for nondetrended data (Fig. 4c). Effect of rodent abundance In the current year, CCFs between yearly, spring or winter temperature and rodent abundance are significantly and negatively correlated with the rodent abundance for both detrended and nondetrended data (Figs 5a and 6). The CCFs between precipitation or NDVI and rodent abundance time series are not significantly correlated with rodent abundance (Fig. 5b,c). DISCUSSION Effect of temperature Figure 3 Effects of precipitation on biodiversity of small rodents as measured by the means of cross-correlation coefficient value with 95% confidence interval for detrended and nondetrended data; *P < 0.05; (a) richness index, (b) Shannon index and (c) evenness index. In a–c, the left figures are for detrended and the right figures are for nondetrended data; the top figures are for the current year and the lower figures are for the previous year (1-year time lag). 168 Many studies project the species biodiversity loss or range shift resulting from global warming (e.g. Peters & Lovejoy 1992; Hughes 2000; McLaughlin et al. 2002). However, our results demonstrate that temperature shows predominantly positive effects (26 of 28 significant correlations are positive) on biodiversity of small rodents in the semi-arid grassland of Inner Mongolia grassland, not supporting the prevailing view. An increase in temperature may benefit plant growth in spring and extend the growing season, and thus supporting coexistence of additional species. Chmielewski and Rotzer (2001) showed that an early spring warming by 1 °C caused an advance in the beginning of plant growing season of 7 days, the extension of growing season was mainly the result of an earlier onset of spring, and an increase of mean annual air temperature by 1 °C led to an extension of 5 days. Increase in temperature is more obvious in winter in Inner Mongolia (Zhai & Ren 1997). Winter temperature increase may benefit overwintering survival and onset of spring breeding of rodents (Schmidt–Nielsen 1975). In this study, the positive effect of temperature on biodiversity of small rodents may be mainly caused by the stronger positive effect of temperature on rare or less abundant species. We have 3 hypotheses for ex- © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS Climate warming and biodiversity Figure 4 Effects of normalized difference vegetation index on biodiversity of small rodents as measured by the means of cross-correlation coefficient value with 95% confidence interval for detrended and nondetrended data; *P < 0.05; (a) richness index, (b) Shannon index and (c) evenness index. In a– c, the left figures are for detrended and the right figures are for nondetrended data; the top figures are for the current year and the lower figures are for the previous year (1-year time lag). © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS Figure 5 Pearson correlation coefficients between average abundance of rodents (number of individuals/100 trap nights) of 16 species and cross-correlation coefficients (between rodent abundance and climate or vegetation) for detrended or nondetrended data in the current year and the previous year (n = 16). *P < 0.05. (a) temperature, (b) precipitation and (c) normalized difference vegetation index. In Fig. 5a–c, the left figures are for detrended and the right figures are for nondetrended data; the top figures are for the current year and the lower figures are for the previous year (1-year time lag). 169 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 G. Jiang et al. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 Figure 6 Linear relationship between average abundance of rodents (number of individuals/100 trap nights) of 16 species and crosscorrelation coefficients (between rodent abundance and yearly, spring or winter temperature) for detrended or nondetrended data in the current year (n =16). The data is from Fig. 5a in the current year. plaining this observation. First, cold temperature may increase the probability of local extinction of rare or less abundant species. The winter temperature is very low in Inner Mongolia, and the winter mortality of small rodents is very high. As shown in Table 1, among the first 13 more abundant species, only 5 species were found in 170 fewer than 5 locations, while in the last 14 less abundant species, 10 species were found in fewer than 5 locations. Thus, rare or less abundant species with fewer locations may have more stochastic local extinction under harsh cold climatic conditions. Second, cold temperature may favor granivorous rodent species by inhibiting folivo- © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS Climate warming and biodiversity rous rodent species due to poor grass vegetation. Our previous studies have demonstrated that high temperature tended to increase grass vegetation in this region (Jiang et al. 2011), which may favor folivorous rodent species. Indeed, as shown in Table 1, among the first 13 more abundant species, only 3 species were folivorous, while in the least abundant 14 species, 8 were folivorous. Third, cold temperature may increase overwintering mortality of rare or less abundant species. Large group size may help rodents to survive the cold winter by mutual warming. Thus, cold temperature may impose more negative effects on social rodent species that are rare or less abundant than those of the more abundant species. The other 2 life history traits (i.e. hibernating or diurnality) seem not to be helpful in explaining the observed correlation between CCFs and population abundance of rodents because they are similar for both less and more abundant species (Table 1). Effect of precipitation In the static model studies based on spatial data, biodiversity is often positively associated with precipitation (e.g. Fischer 1960; Currie & Paquin 1987; Currie 1991; O’Brien 1998; Zhang et al. 2006). However, in our studies, we found that precipitation showed both positive (9 of 17 significant correlations are positive) and negative (8 of 17 significant correlations are negative) associations with biodiversity indices. However, we found that summer or winter precipitation showed significant negative effects, while spring and autumn precipitation showed positive effects. This suggests that the amount of green vegetation available to and eaten by rodents influences their reproduction (Reichman & van de Graaff 1975). In addition, reproductive response of rodents has been frequently associated with increased water intake, increased general fitness or the presence of some estrogenic substance in the greenery (Reichman & van de Graaff 1975). In our study region, reproduction of small rodents is positively associated with spring precipitation, which is essential for grass growth (Xie et al. 2012). Abundant spring precipitation may increase populations of and have more benefits for rare folivorous species. If summer precipitation is very abundant, high precipitation may impose negative effects on small rodents in summer by flooding their burrows and nests (see Brown & Ernest 2002; Zhang et al. 2003; Jiang et al. 2011), and thereby increase the extinction probability of rare species with smaller population size or fewer locations. This may help to explain why summer precipitation reveals a negative effect on the biodiversity of small rodents. High winter precipitation may have © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS a similar effect of summer precipitation when in early spring snow melts and then flood burrows of small rodents. It is not clear why autumn precipitation showed a more positive effect on rare or less abundant species. High autumn precipitation may be beneficial to folivorous rodent species by extending the growing seasons of grass. Effect of vegetation It is well known that vegetative stratification providing food and cover from predators is an important factor of habitats to support small mammal communities (Yahner 1983; Fitzgibbon 1997). Some previous studies indicate that vegetation biomass was not related to small mammal biodiversity (e.g. Sullivan et al. 2006). In this study, 4 significant positive effects of NDVI (i.e. biomass of vegetation indicator) on biodiversity indices were detected, which support our hypothesis that good vegetation favors species that are rare or less abundant with more folivorous diets. Previous studies have indicated that in more disturbed grassland, weeds are abundant and favor granivorous rodent species, whereas in non-disturbed or less-disturbed grassland, herbaceous species are dominant and, thus, favor folivorous species (Fan et al. 1999; Zhong et al. 1999; Zhang et al. 2003). Effect of detrending Detrended and nondetrended data represent mainly annual and decadal variations of biodiversity of small rodents in this study. In some cases, both detrended and nondetrended data showed similar significant associations, but in many cases significant associations were observed either in detrended data or in nondetrended data. For example, yearly and spring temperature in the current year showed positive significantly effects on the richness for detrended data but not for detrended data (Fig. 2a). Spring precipitation in the current year showed significant effects on richness for data. The NDVI in both current and previous years showed significant positive effects on evenness for nondetrended data, but not for detrended data (Fig. 4c). These results suggest that temperature, precipitation or NDVI can have significant effects on the biodiversity of small rodents on both annual and decadal scales. Effect of time lag Our previous studies indicate that temperature, precipitation and NDVI had time lag effects on rodent abundances in the study region (Jiang et al. 2011). Thus, time lags may have an impact on the biodiversity of small rodents. In this study, in many cases, we found 171 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 G. Jiang et al. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 that significant effects of temperature, precipitation or NDVI occurred either in the current year or in the previous year. For example, we found that yearly, spring and winter temperature in the previous year showed significant positive effects, whereas autumn temperature in the previous year showed significant negative effects on richness for detrended data, but not in the current year (Fig. 2a). Spring and autumn precipitation in the current year showed significant positive effects on richness and winter precipitation showed significant negative effects on richness for detrended data, but not in the previous year. NDVI in the previous year showed significant positive effects on the Shannon index for both detrended and nondetrended data, but not in the current year (Fig. 4b). These diverse observations can be explained by different effects of temperature, precipitation or NDVI on rodent species. Jiang et al. (2011) report that both temperature and precipitation in current year show positive effects on rodent population; the NDVI shows a negative effect on rodent abundance in the current year, but a positive effect in the previous year. Effect of diversity indices Species richness, diversity and evenness are all measures of relative biodiversity (complexity) in communities. They are not, however, interchangeable, and it is helpful to distinguish among these terms (Spellerberg & Fedor 2003). Species richness is a measure of variety of species, and is used to refer to the number of species in a given area or in a given sample. The Shannon–Wiener diversity index is based on percentage composition by species. With increasing sample size, the index approaches a constant value (Peet 1975) and gives more weight to rare species (Krebs 1989). Evenness is a measure of the relative dominance of different species within a community (Molinari 1989), and may be a more sensitive indicator of community change than richness or diversity alone (Wittebolle et al. 2009). Wilsey et al. (2005) argue that local evenness may be more sensitive to global change than local richness. With very few exceptions, our results indicated that all 3 diversity indices showed similar responses to environmental variables. 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