Political Advertising and the
Electoral College
Professor Brett R. Gordon
Spending on Political Advertising
Advertising Spending (in billions)
$5.0
?
$4.5
$4.0
$3.5
$3.0
$2.5
$2.0
$1.5
$1.0
$0.5
$0.0
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
Sources: PQ Media; USA Today, S&P Capital IQ.
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Political Advertising
! Increasing
$$$ directed to political advertising
– By candidates, national parties, interest groups
! Evidence
that TV advertising in elections
matters (Huber & Arceneaux, 2007; Gerber et al., 2011; Gordon & Hartmann 2012)
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How Much Does Political Advertising Matter?
! Data:
advertising by candidate-market and countylevel voting in 2000 and 2004 presidential elections
! What
would happen without advertising?
Electoral Votes
Election Candidate
2000
2004
Which States Switch?
Observed
Zero Ads
States
Spending
Bush
271
249
+OR(7)
$5.4M
Gore
267
289
+FL(25),
+NH(4)
$4.2M
Bush
286
296
+WI(10)
$4.3M
Kerry
252
242
--
$6.3M
Source: Gordon, B. and Hartmann, W. (2011), “Advertising Effects in Presidential Elections,” Working paper, Columbia Business School.
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Political Advertising and Electoral Design
!  Advertising can shift election outcomes
!  Can changing the electoral system reduce the
“sensitivity” of the election outcome to advertising?
– How does the electoral college influence candidates’
advertising incentives?
– What would happen under an alternative system?
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Presidential Election and The Electoral College
! Electoral
College is a winner-take-all contest
in each state
! Incentives
under the winner-take-all rule:
– Candidates focus intensely on battleground states!
one-third of the population receives 90% of all advertising
– Minimizes role of voters in non-battleground states !
pivotal nature of battlegrounds leads them to have higher
turnout (Gerber et al., 2009)
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2000 Presidential Advertising: Republican
Sources: Campaign
Media Analysis
Group, Authors’
calculations.
FL
NY
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2000 Presidential Advertising: Democrat
Sources: Campaign
Media Analysis
Group, Authors’
calculations.
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An Alternative: Direct Popular Election
! All
states are “in play”, no battlegrounds
! Popular
support exists
–  72% of Americans favor it (Washington Post/Kaiser Foundation/Harvard, 2007)
–  National Popular Vote bill adopted in 9 states (132 electoral votes)
! Would
a direct national vote result in a more even
distribution of advertising?
! Would
overall spending increase? Voter turnout?
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Observed Advertising under the Electoral College
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Predicted Advertising under a Direct Popular Vote
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Comparing Outcomes
2000 Election
Population Exposed to Ads
Total Spending
Spending per Capita
Electoral
College
Direct Popular
Election
122M
$117M
162M
$188M
Battlegrounds (Std. Dev.)
$0.76 (0.34)
Non-Battlegrounds (Std. Dev.) $0.12 (0.26)
Voting
Popular Margin
0.54% for Gore
Voter Turnout
62.6%
$0.61 (0.11)
$0.57 (0.10)
1.34% for Gore
64.1%
Source: Gordon, B. and Hartmann, W. (2011), “Political Advertising and the Electoral College,” Working paper, Columbia Business School.
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Summary
! Political
advertising can shift election
outcomes
! Move
to direct popular vote would:
– Bring all the states into play
– Increase voter turnout by 2.4 million
– But likely would increase the importance of fundraising
because larger sums needed to reach newly relevant
population of voters
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On the Effects of SuperPACs in 2012!
“There’s going to be a lot of money spent.
I’m not saying that’s the best thing for
America, but it’s not a bad thing for the
CBS Corporation.”
-Les Moonves, CEO of CBS
Source: “Record Political Advertising as Swing-State Cash Spreads to Local Outlets,” Ad Age, February 10, 2012.
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