bs_bs_banner Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 176, 332–348. With 3 figures Genetic diversity and ecological niche modelling of the restricted Recordia reitzii (Verbenaceae) from southern Brazilian Atlantic forest VERÔNICA A. THODE1,2, GUSTAVO A. SILVA-ARIAS1, CAROLINE TURCHETTO1, ANA LÚCIA A. SEGATTO1, GERALDO MÄDER1, SANDRO L. BONATTO3 and LORETA B. DE FREITAS1,2* 1 Laboratory of Molecular Evolution, Department of Genetics, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, PoBox 15053, Porto Alegre, Brazil 2 Programa de Pós-Graduação em Botânica, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Bento Gonçalves 9500, Porto Alegre, Brazil 3 Genomic and Molecular Biology Laboratory, Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul, Ipiranga 6681, 90610-001 Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil Received 25 December 2013; revised 13 June 2014; accepted for publication 27 July 2014 Genetic diversity analyses, coupled with ecological niche modelling (ENM) of species with a restricted distribution, may provide valuable information for understanding diversification patterns in endangered areas. We analyzed the genetic diversity of Recordia reitzii, a tree restricted to the threatened and highly fragmented Brazilian Atlantic forest, using three intergenic cpDNA spacers and ten microsatellite (SSR) loci. To assess the historical processes that may have influenced the distribution of extant R. reitzii populations, the current potential distributions of R. reitzii and Recordia boliviana, a closely related species, were modelled and projected onto the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Last Interglacial (LIG) periods. Niche divergence was quantified between these two. The cpDNA and SSR data showed a north–south pattern of the diversity distribution and structured populations, suggesting that gene flow is probably limited. According to our data, R. reitzii exhibits low genetic diversity, which may be a result of a founder or distribution-reduction effect, narrow distribution or small population size. The ecological niche models showed a wider palaeodistribution during the LIG and a retraction during the LGM for both species. Tests of niche divergence and conservatism indicated that bioclimatic factors might have influenced the diversification of these Recordia species. © 2014 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 176, 332–348. ADDITIONAL KEYWORDS: cpDNA – microsatellite – niche conservatism – niche divergence. INTRODUCTION The Atlantic forest is widely known for the large number of organisms and high endemism it harbours, as well as for documented diversity losses (Mori, Boom & Prance, 1981; Terborgh, 1992; Morellato & Haddad, 2000; Myers et al., 2000; Perret, Chautems & Spichiger, 2006; Ribeiro et al., 2009; Stehmann et al., 2009). This forest extends from the north to the south of Brazil (3°S to 30°S) along its east coast, from sea level up to an elevation of 2700 m (Metzger et al., 2009; *Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected] 332 Stehmann et al., 2009), and is characterized by strong seasonality and high precipitation as a result of the eastward winds from the tropical Atlantic (Fundação Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística, 1993). The Atlantic forest currently covers only 7–11% of its original area and is restricted to isolated fragments, which leads to a reduction of biodiversity, especially among species endemic to this kind of habitat (Ranta et al., 1998; Ribeiro et al., 2009; Vieira et al., 2009). Despite an alarming loss of diversity, many Atlantic forest species are still unknown (Lewinsohn & Prado, 2005; Sobral & Stehmann, 2009) and additional studies are necessary to investigate the evolutionary © 2014 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 176, 332–348 GENETIC DIVERSITY OF RECORDIA REITZII processes that may have influenced the assemblages of this ecoregion (Perret et al., 2006). Studying the distribution pattern of species that occur in the Atlantic forest is of great importance to comprehend the factors driving their diversity and the high number of endemic species, in addition to understanding the consequences of past, present and future environmental changes in this region, particularly for its extant biodiversity (Behling & Lichte, 1997; Behling & Negrelle, 2001; Behling et al., 2002; Carnaval & Moritz, 2008). Population genetic analyses have been conducted on plants of the Atlantic forest and on the influence of climatic changes and glacial/interglacial cycles on the distribution, genetic diversity and population structure of its species (Reis et al., 2000; Conte et al., 2003; Ribeiro et al., 2005; Alcantara, Semir & Solferini, 2006; Palma-Silva et al., 2009; Ramos, Lemos-Filho & Lovato, 2009; Lorenz-Lemke et al., 2010; Pinheiro et al., 2011; Collevatti et al., 2012a; Turchetto-Zolet et al., 2013). However, little is known about the genetic diversity of species with a restricted distribution and the factors that might have influenced their present isolation. Fine-scale studies are important to evaluate larger events and to elucidate the diversification processes occurring in a biome as a whole (Silva et al., 2012). Genetic diversity studies using plastid DNA (cpDNA) (maternally inherited in most Angiosperm species) and nuclear (biparentally inherited) markers may provide a deeper understanding of ancient and recent events that have influenced the current distribution of genetic variability (Ennos, 1994; Collevatti, Grattapaglia & Hay, 2003; Palma-Silva et al., 2009). Ecological niche modelling (ENM) has been used to understand the relationships between the temporal dynamics of species distributions and analyses of genetic differentiation and species divergence (Knowles, Carstens & Keat, 2007), as well as to study niche evolution (Pearman et al., 2008). Studying the differences and similarities of the niches of closely related species may provide insight into the role of their geographical distribution and ecological features on diversification (Wiens & Graham, 2005; Warren, Glor & Turelli, 2008; McCormack, Zellmer & Knowles, 2010; Wellenreuther, Larson & Svensson, 2012; Wooten & Gibbs, 2012; Hung, Drovetski & Zink, 2013). Such analyses may shed light on important evolutionary issues, such as speciation (Hua & Wiens, 2013), and serve as powerful tools for the conservation of this ecoregion and the protection of its species (Bernardo-Silva et al., 2012). Niche conservatism is manifested by the tendency of related species to occupy environmental niches that are similar and the inability of these organisms to survive under different conditions (low suitability) (Harvey & Pagel, 1991; Wiens & Graham, 2005). On the other hand, niche divergence refers to evolution under new conditions 333 and to the expansion of niche breadth, increasing the distribution of a clade (Wiens & Donoghue, 2004). Tools based on geographical information system (GIS) can be used to quantify niche conservatism and divergence between closely related taxa (Wiens & Donoghue, 2004; Warren et al., 2008; McCormack et al., 2010). Studying biotic interchanges can help in understanding the historical assembly of biomes and select biological corridors for future conservation efforts (Antonelli & Sanmartín, 2011). Recordia reitzii (Moldenke) Thode & O’Leary (Verbenaceae) is a tree restricted to the southern limit of the Brazilian Atlantic rainforest (Salimena et al., 2009; Thode et al., 2013a) (Fig. S1). Its geographical distribution comprises a small area along the coast in the Atlantic Ombrophilous Dense Forest, with an extension of only ∼ 200 km, in the Brazilian states of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina. It is found at elevations of 10–550 m, not reaching the higher areas of the southern Brazilian plateau (Serra Geral), which can exhibit elevations up to ∼ 1000 m (Troncoso, 1974; Reitz, Klein & Reis, 1978; Reitz, Klein & Reis, 1983; Sobral et al., 2006; Behling & Pillar, 2007; Thode et al., 2013a) (Fig. 1). Based on genetic and morphological data, R. reitzii was inferred to be sister to Recordia boliviana Moldenke (Thode et al., 2013a), a tree with a narrow distribution in the semi-deciduous dry forests of Bolivia. This species is found in the low mountains west of Santa Cruz de la Sierra, between Samaipata and Cochabamba (M. Nee, pers. comm.), occurring from elevations of 50–1850 m. These two species share several morphological traits and are the only members of a genus with a large distributional gap (Thode et al., 2013a). This disjunction has been previously described as a contribution of the cool-seasonal Andean Piedemont forests to the cool-moist endemic portion of the Tropical Atlantic forests, which nowadays are probably disconnected by late expansions of aridity of the Chaco Domain (Oliveira-Filho et al., 2013). Using three plastid regions and ten microsatellite (SSR) loci, we aimed to investigate the genetic diversity and structure of R. reitzii populations. In addition, niche modelling of current and past periods and tests of niche divergence and conservatism for R. reitzii and R. boliviana were performed to investigate the effects of past climate changes on the processes that may have played a role in the present distribution of R. reitzii. MATERIAL AND METHODS POPULATION SAMPLING A total of 135 individuals of R. reitzii, from 12 collection sites (hereafter referred to as populations), were genotyped for 10 SSR loci, and three plastid regions © 2014 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 176, 332–348 334 V. A. THODE ET AL. Figure 1. Map of Brazil indicating the area studied (A). Parts of Rio Grande do Sul (RS) and Santa Catarina (SC) States showing the geographical distribution of cpDNA haplotypes (B) and a median-joining network (C) for the Recordia reitzii populations sampled (H1–H5) and for the individuals of Recordia boliviana sampled (H6; Hrb). The size of the circles is proportional to the sample size, and the colours represent the haplotypes. Darker areas in B represent higher altitudes. H5 and H6 (Hrb) differ by eight mutations. were sequenced in a representative subset of 81 individuals. The sampling sites were located throughout the species distribution in southeastern Brazil (Fig. 1, Table 1). With the exception of three populations (OSO, PGR and ORL; Table 1), it was not possible to collect a larger number of individuals owing to the rarity of this taxon and anthropic habitat disturbances. Moreover, no individuals were found further north than ORL (28°22′ S, 49°14′ W) or further south than OSO (29°52′ S, 50°17′ W). Three individuals of R. boliviana were sampled (Table S1) for the three plastid regions and were used as the outgroup. DNA AMPLIFICATION, PLASTID DNA SEQUENCING AND MICROSATELLITE GENOTYPING Genomic DNA was extracted from field-collected silica-dried leaves using the cetyltrimethylammonium bromide (CTAB) protocol, according to Roy et al. (1992). Three cpDNA intergenic spacers, trnH–psbA (Sang, Crawford & Stuessy, 1997), trnS–trnG (Hamilton, 1999) and rpl32–trnL (Shaw et al., 2007), were amplified via the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in a Veriti thermocycler (Applied Biosystems, Foster City, CA, USA). PCR was performed in a 25-μL reaction containing 5 ng/μL of template genomic DNA, 200 μM each deoxyribonucleotide triphosphate (dNTP) (Invitrogen, Carlsbad, CA, USA), 0.2 μM each primer, 2.0 mM MgCl2, 0.5 U of Taq Platinum DNA polymerase (Invitrogen) and 1 × Taq Platinum reac- tion buffer (Invitrogen), with an initial denaturation step at 94 °C for 3 min, followed by 30 cycles of 94 °C for 1 min, 57 °C for 1 min (50° for the rpl32-trnL) and 72 °C for 1 min, and a final extension cycle at 72 °C for 8 min. The PCR products were purified according to Dunn & Blattner (1987) and sequenced in a MegaBACE™ 1000 automated sequencer (GE Healthcare Biosciences, Pittsburgh, PA, USA) using the DYEnamicET Terminator Sequencing Premix Kit (GE Healthcare). The sequences thus obtained were assembled using Chromas 2.4 (Technelysium, Helensvale, Australia) and manually aligned and edited in Mega5 (Tamura et al., 2011). Inversions and insertion/deletion events (indels), consisting of more than one base pair (bp), were coded as a single evolutionary event. The three cpDNA regions were concatenated for all analyses. Sequences generated in this study were deposited in GenBank and accession numbers are provided in Table S2. PCR amplifications of the 10 SSR loci were performed using previously described protocols (Thode et al., 2013b). The length of the amplified fragment of DNA was measured on a MegaBACE™ 1000 automated sequencer using an ET-ROX 550 size ladder (GE Healthcare). The data were analyzed using Genetic Profiler 2.0 (GE Healthcare). DATA ANALYSES: cpDNA SEQUENCES To characterize the genetic variability of the sampled individuals, haplotype (h) and nucleotide (π) © 2014 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 176, 332–348 RS, RS, RS, RS, SC, SC, SC, SC, SC, SC, SC, SC, Osório Três Forquilhas Três Cachoeiras Morro Azul Praia Grande Timbé do Sul Siderópolis Santo Antônio Santo Antônio Treviso Lauro Muller Orleans S S S S S S S S S S S S 29° 29° 29° 29° 29° 28° 28° 28° 28° 28° 28° 28° 52′ 32′ 27′ 24′ 10′ 49′ 43′ 35′ 34′ 29′ 23′ 22′ 54.8″, 55.8″, 38.6″, 18.5″, 58.4″, 12.3″, 10.1″, 17.1″, 03.1″, 34.6″, 16.5″, 16.7″, W W W W W W W W W W W W 50° 50° 49° 49° 49° 49° 49° 49° 49° 49° 49° 49° 17′ 04′ 56′ 55′ 59′ 52′ 22′ 31′ 32′ 31′ 30′ 14′ 15.0″ 43.3″ 10.0″ 51.1″ 43.0″ 12.3″ 12.6″ 24.5″ 36.4″ 15.2″ 13.6″ 34.3″ ICN 166749 ICN 166751 ICN 166754 ICN 166750 ICN 166755 ICN 166757 ICN 166765 ICN 166759 ICN 166758 ICN 166766 ICN 175535 ICN 166763 Average 4.6 2.9 2.5 2.2 4.1 1.9 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.2 3.3 2.8 6 2 0 0 6 0 0 3 1 1 2 5 2.2 2.013 2.074 1.818 1.802 2.126 1.582 1.668 1.792 1.976 2.010 1.718 1.913 1.874 AR 0.317 0.321 0.347 0.405 0.390 0.467 0.300 0.294 0.456 0.241 0.306 0.354 0.350 Ho 0.477 0.589 0.423 0.557 0.536 0.484 0.451 0.435 0.557 0.548 0.505 0.500 0.424 He 0.339 0.489 0.195 0.295 0.278 0.040 0.350 0.350 0.203 0.589 0.436 0.297 0.322 FIS A, average number of alleles per locus in the population; AR, allelic richness; FIS, fixation index; He, expected heterozygosity; Ho, observed heterozygosity; N, sample size (N1 = cpDNA data, N2 = SSR data); PA, private alleles. *ICN Herbarium, Department of Botany, Biosciences Institute, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil. 31 6 6 6 20 5 10 7 6 8 7 23 135 PA 18 4 2 4 4 4 11 4 5 10 5 10 81 Voucher* OSO TFO TCA MAZ PGR TSU SID S86 S84 TRE LMU ORL Total Coordinates A Collection site N1 Population N2 Microsatellite diversity Local information Table 1. Measures of genetic diversity for the ten microsatellite loci examined in 12 populations of Recordia reitzii GENETIC DIVERSITY OF RECORDIA REITZII © 2014 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 176, 332–348 335 336 V. A. THODE ET AL. diversities (Nei, 1987) and analyses of molecular variance (AMOVA, Excoffier, Smouse & Quattro, 1992) were calculated with Arlequin 3.5.1.2 (Excoffier & Lischer, 2010). AMOVA was performed using significance tests with 10 000 permutations. A medianjoining network (Bandelt, Forster & Röhl, 1999) of the haplotypes was estimated in the program Network 4.1.0.9 (http://www.fluxus-engineering.com/) to determinate the evolutionary relationships between haplotypes. A Mantel test was conducted to test the correlation between the genetic and geographical distances of the populations using the program Alleles in Space 1.0 (AIS; Miller, 2005) with 1000 permutations. DATA ANALYSES: SSR LOCI To characterize the SSR loci, genetic diversity indices for each population (A, average number of alleles per locus in the population; AR, allelic richness, Ho, observed heterozygosity; He, expected heterozygosity) were calculated in Arlequin and Fstat 2.9.3.2 (Goudet, 2002). Significant departures from Hardy– Weinberg equilibrium (HWE) and linkage disequilibrium with Bonferroni correction were tested using Arlequin and Fstat, respectively. To identify evidence of possible null alleles, we employed the software Micro-Checker 2.2.3 (Van Oosterhout et al., 2004). AMOVA were performed in Arlequin to verify the degree of genetic differentiation among populations and among individuals within populations. The pairwise population genetic differentiation was calculated using Fst (which incorporates the infinite alleles model) and Rst (designed for SSR data, incorporates a stepwise mutation model) (Slatkin, 1995). Significance was tested using 10 000 permutations. The Bayesian clustering method was implemented in Structure 2.3.3 (Pritchard, Stephens & Donnelly, 2000) to investigate population genetic structure. This approach allows an optimal number of genetic clusters (K) to be determined based on individuals and does not assume an a priori membership in a population. The analyses were performed with 10 runs for each K (ranging between 1 and 20), with burn-in of 250 000 Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) periods using 1 000 000 MCMC replicates, allowing admixture, with no prior population information and correlated allele frequencies (Pritchard et al., 2000; Falush, Stephens & Pritchard, 2003). To infer the best K value, we employed the ΔK method (Evanno, Regnaut & Goudet, 2005), which favours the model with the greatest second-order rate of change in lnPr (X|K). The individual ancestry coefficients for the Structure runs were calculated using Clumpp 1.1.2 (Jakobsson & Rosenberg, 2007), with the average pairwise similarity of individual assignments across runs, applying the Greedy method using the G’ statistic. The Clumpp results were plotted using Distruct 1.1 (Rosenberg, 2004). POPULATION DEMOGRAPHIC HISTORY ANALYSES Tajima’s D neutrality tests (Tajima, 1989) and Fu’s Fs (Fu, 1997) were carried out in Arlequin to assess the population demographic history; significance was determined based on 10 000 simulations. In addition, changes in population size over time were estimated with a Bayesian skyline plot (BSP; Drummond et al., 2005) analysis performed in BEAST 1.6.1 (Drummond & Rambaut, 2007). The priors for this analysis were a relaxed molecular clock model with the substitution rate previously estimated for chloroplast noncoding regions (1.0 × 10−9; Wolfe, Li & Sharp, 1987) and an HKY (Hasegawa, Kishino, and Yano) nucleotide substitution model. MCMC was performed for 100 000 000 steps, sampling every 10 000 steps. The computation of the BSP and convergence checking were performed in TRACER 1.5 (http://beast.bio.ed.ac.uk/Tracer). In order to test possible past changes in population size that could explain observed values of population sizes and genetic diversity, we used the Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) method (Beaumont, Zhang & Balding, 2002) implemented in DIYABC2 (Cornuet et al., 2014), using the nuclear microsatellite data. Two historical demographic scenarios were compared: (1) constant population size; and (2) recent bottleneck. The scenario that best fitted the data and parameters of interest was selected. For this analysis we pooled all populations into a single sample. For the constant population size scenario we defined prior probability distribution of effective population size, N1, with a uniform distribution bounded between [5E2, 5E3]. For a recent bottleneck scenario we defined prior probability distributions of effective population sizes N1 and N2 with a uniform distribution bounded between [5E2, 5E3] and [5E3, 5E5], respectively. For the time of population reduction we set a prior probability distribution between [1E3, 1E5] generations. Several pre-analyses showed that scenarios with older time for population reduction were not distinguishable from constant population scenario. Prior values for mutation model settings were drawn for all loci. Prior values for mean mutation rates were then drawn from a uniform distribution bounded between [10E−4, 10E−3] and for an individual locus mutation rate between [10E−5, 10E−2]. Prior values for coefficient P were set to zero to define the Stepwise Mutation Model. Mutations that inserted or deleted a single nucleotide from the SSR sequence were not considered. For summary statistics we included the mean number of alleles, mean genic diversity, mean size variance and mean Ganza–Willamson’s M. A reference table containing a total of two million simulated datasets was produced. © 2014 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 176, 332–348 GENETIC DIVERSITY OF RECORDIA REITZII After simulations, Euclidean distances between observed and simulated datasets were drawn in order to select the closest datasets for further analyses. To assess the similarity between observed data and the combination of priors of each scenario we used the ‘pre-evaluation scenario prior combination’. The scenario with the highest posterior probability and subsequent parameters was used to perform logistic regression analyses. The posterior probability density for each parameter, using 10% of the simulated datasets closest to the observed dataset, was estimated. We assessed the confidence of the selected scenario by calculating type I and type II errors. Finally, for the best-fitting scenario, model checking, by simulating 10 000 pseudo observed datasets, was performed to check the ability to produce simulated datasets similar to the real dataset. ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELLING Georeferenced localities of R. reitzii and R. boliviana (Table S3) were obtained from herbarium records, SpeciesLink (http://www.splink.org.br) and GBIF (http:// www.gbif.org). Only 21 records for R. reitzii (12 localities from the DNA analyses collected for this study and nine obtained from databases) and 12 collection localities for R. boliviana (all from databases) were available, congruent with the restricted distribution of both species. Only records with global positioning system (GPS) coordinates and detailed localities were used. All localities were plotted onto a map of South America, encompassing southern Brazil and Bolivia, using DIVA-GIS 7.1.7.2 (Hijmans et al., 2004). The environmental data for both sets of locations were obtained from the 19 WorldClim bioclimatic layers extracted through the programme DIVA-GIS (http://www.worldclim.org/bioclim; Hijmans et al., 2005), with a resolution of 30 arc seconds (∼ 1 km2). The grid layers were cut to the areas that included both Recordia species and were then exported to the ASCII format with the software DIVA-GIS. To avoid highly correlated variables in our dataset, Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated in ENMTools 1.3 (Warren et al., 2008) for all pairs of the 19 bioclimatic layers. The pairs of variables showing an R > 0.75 were identified and those presenting the lowest percentage of importance to the model in a preliminary run were discarded (Peterson, 2007; Nakazato, Warren & Moyle, 2010) (Table S4). Ten climatic variables were excluded from the analyses as a result of high correlations and nine were used in the ENMs (Table S5). The maximum entropy algorithm in Maxent 3.3 (Phillips, Anderson & Schapire, 2006) was employed to generate present ENMs based on species presence data and the nine bioclimatic predictors. Prediction models were run for 10 iterations using 20% random records to test each 337 run with the subsample option for each replicated run type. The quality of the models was evaluated based on the area under the curve (AUC) and True Skill Statistic (TSS; Allouche, Tsoar & Kadmon, 2006) scores. The AUC scores range from 0.5 to 1, with values above 0.7 being acceptable (Pearce & Ferrier, 2000). TSS values vary between −1 and 1: values of less than 0 indicate that the model does not predict the known localities better than random choice and a value of 1 indicates a perfect discrimination power of the model between the known localities and the geographical background. For the TSS, the threshold value was the maximum of the sum of the sensitivity and specificity of the test data. To investigate potential past range shifts of R. reitzii and R. boliviana, which potentially explain current patterns of geographical distribution, population size and genetic diversity, we projected the models obtained to two contrasting past climatic conditions; the Last Glacial Maximum [(LGM) 21 000 years before present (kBP)] and the Last Interglacial [(LIG) 120–140 kBP], based on projections from the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC 3.2; Hasumi & Emori, 2004), available at the WorldClim website (http://www.worldclim.org/past). TESTS FOR NICHE CONSERVATISM AND DIVERGENCE In addition to the allopatric distribution of these two species of Recordia, we tested whether these taxa present conservatism or divergence in their bioclimatic niche preferences. We implemented two approaches to detect signals of conservatism or divergence between the Recordia species: one based on similarity metrics between the species’ ENMs and another based on the reduction of the raw bioclimatic variables in a principal component analysis (PCA). Considering that bioclimatic variables show low spatial heterogeneity and therefore present spatial autocorrelation (Soberón, 2007), the potential biases of niche divergence measures associated with geographical distance (Godsoe, 2010) were assessed using background tests developed for each approach. This refinement dismisses possible confusion in the inference of changes in environmental requirements with changes in the environments available to the distinct taxa (McCormack et al., 2010). We employed two metrics to calculate the niche similarity of R. reitzii and R. boliviana by comparing the obtained estimates of habitat suitability from the ENMs. Using ENMtools, we calculated the Schoener’s D and Hellinger’s I metrics, which range from 0 (niche models show no overlap) to 1 (niche models are identical, being equally suitable for both species) (Schoener, 1968; van der Vaart, 1998; Warren et al., 2008). Then, the identity test was executed to verify whether the obtained niche-overlap scores exhibited © 2014 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 176, 332–348 338 V. A. THODE ET AL. statistically significant values (Warren et al., 2008). This test was performed with 100 replicates to generate a pseudoreplicated null distribution. In each replicate, the test permutes the species’ localities, produces new ENMs for each species and compares them with the two metrics. The observed values of niche overlap (Schoener’s D and Hellinger’s I) were compared with the generated null distribution. The null hypothesis of this test (the observed values of niche overlap do not differ from random values) is rejected when the estimated value for D and/or I is significantly different from the null distribution. The background test implemented in ENMTools was used to determine whether the species’ niches were more distinct than expected based on the environmental background differences between the two taxa. Null models were taken into account to test whether any possible observed niche differentiation between the species was caused by differences between the regions they occupied (geographical background) (Warren et al., 2008). This test compares the suitability scores of one species with the geographical background of the other, and vice versa, based on 100 overlap values resulting from the comparison of the ENM of one species with ENMs created from random points plotted within the geographical range of the other. The number of background points equals the sample size of the taxon from whose range the random points were plotted. Two null distributions were generated (one for each taxon). Evidence of niche divergence or conservatism requires two conditions: that niche characteristics are different/similar between species and that these differences are greater/smaller than a null distribution of the niche similarity indices between one species and random points within the other species’ range. A PCA was implemented to explore differences, in terms of environmental space, between the Recordia species using the raw bioclimatic data from the nine climatic variables employed in the ENMs (Table S5) for the species’ occurrence points and for 1000 random points plotted in a minimum convex polygon drawn within the geographical ranges of the taxa using DIVA-GIS. The values obtained for both species’ localities and background points for the nine variables were reduced through PCA of the correlation matrix with Mystat (Student’s version of Systat; Stepp & Leitner, 1989). The most important axes that explained > 85% of the overall variance and presented a clear biological interpretation based on the loading scores of each variable were retained. We tested niche divergence and conservatism against a null model of background divergence on each of the axes by comparing the observed difference in mean niche values for a given principal component with the difference in mean background values. The significance was assessed using 1000 Jackknife replicates of the mean background values. RESULTS CPDNA DATA The amplified sequences of the cpDNA intergenic spacers trnH–psbA (354 bp), trnS–trnG (682 bp) and rpl32–trnL (993 bp) were concatenated for all analyses, showing a total length of 2029 bp. The overall alignment presented one inversion, of 17 bp, and seven indels, which were coded as one evolutionary step each. We also identified six single-base substitutions (four transitions and two transversions), resulting in five haplotypes for the 81 individuals from the 12 populations of R. reitzii. The overall haplotype (h) and nucleotide (π) diversities were 0.441 [standard deviation (SD) = 0.060] and 0.0015 (SD = 0.0009), respectively. Haplotype H1 was the most frequent, being present in all except for the northernmost population, ORL, which exhibited only haplotype H5. The southernmost population, OSO (H1, H2, H3 and H4), and population SID (H1 and H5) were the only populations to present more than one haplotype (Fig. 1). AMOVA showed that the genetic variation caused by differences among and within populations was 50%. The Mantel test (r = 0.176, P < 0.001) indicated a significant association between genetic and geographical distances. The three sampled individuals of R. boliviana presented the same haplotype, H6 (Hrb), which differs from H5 by eight mutations, fewer than the ten mutations that differentiate H5 from the remaining R. reitzii haplotypes (H1–H4) (Fig. 1). SSR DATA The ten SSR loci analyzed were polymorphic across the 12 populations (Table 1). Within the sampled populations, the mean number of alleles (A) ranged from 1.9 (TSU) to 4.6 (OSO) (mean = 2.8). The number of private alleles (PA) per population ranged from 0 (TCA, MAZ, TSU and SID) to 6 (OSO and PGR). The allelic richness (AR) ranged from 1.6 (TSU) to 2.1 (PGR) (mean = 1.9). The observed heterozygosity (Ho) varied between 0.241 (TRE) and 0.467 (TSU) (mean = 0.350), the expected heterozygosity (He) ranged from 0.423 (TCA) to 0.589 (TFO) (mean = 0.424), and the fixation index (FIS) ranged from 0.040 (TSU) to 0.589 (TRE) (mean = 0.322). No evidence of linkage disequilibrium or significant departures from HWE was detected (Table 1). The overall SSR data, verified using Micro-Checker, suggested no evidence of genotyping errors as a result of high allelic dropout, but indicated that null alleles might be present for Vx04, Vx06 and Vx13, in © 2014 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 176, 332–348 GENETIC DIVERSITY OF RECORDIA REITZII 339 Figure 2. Bayesian structure analysis of Recordia reitzii. Each vertical bar represents an individual apportioned into the number of inferred clusters (K = 4), represented by different colours, and the black vertical lines delimit populations. (Colour figure available online.) addition to genotyping errors resulting from stuttering for Vx04 and Vx13. However, these potential errors were double-checked with Genetic Profiler, and all allele peaks were found to be clear and well defined. The same analyses performed per population suggested the presence of null alleles at five loci in different populations: Vx01 (PGR and ORL), Vx04 (PGR and ORL), Vx06 (PGR, ORL and SID), Vx10 (SID), and Vx13 (PGR, ORL, SID and S86). AMOVA of the SSR data revealed that most of the genetic variability exists within populations (81% based on the stepwise mutation model and 76% based on the infinite alleles model). The Bayesian cluster analyses identified the best group structure with K = 4 clusters (Fig. 2). POPULATION DEMOGRAPHIC HISTORY ANALYSES The results of the Tajima’s D and Fu’s Fs neutrality tests were positive, but not significant (0.644, P = 0.775; and 5.376, P = 0.957, respectively). The BSPs (Fig. S2) suggested a more intense period of population decline since ∼ 100 kBP. The DIYABC analysis with the SSR data supported a scenario of recent past population bottleneck. The posterior probability of the logistic regression for the bottleneck scenario was 1.0, with a type I error of 0.218 and a type II error of 0.066. Model check values and marginal posterior probability densities for parameters of the bottleneck scenario are provided in Table S6. ECOLOGICAL The ENMs for R. reitzii and R. boliviana are displayed in Figure 3A–F. The ENMs under current climatic conditions predicted suitable localities for both species that mostly matched their known distributions. Nevertheless, other suitable localities were also indicated outside the present known ranges of the species (Fig. 3A, D). For the LGM, the potential geographical ranges obtained for R. reitzii (Fig. 3B) and R. boliviana (Fig. 3E) were somewhat wider than their present ranges. However, the predictions for the LIG revealed the widest ranges of suitable areas for both species (Fig. 3C, F). The ENM for the LGM for R. boliviana (Fig. 3E) indicated more suitable areas than the current model (Fig. 3D), including part of the area predicted for R. reitzii at the LGM along the Brazilian coast (Fig. 3B). The predicted distribution of R. reitzii at the LIG suggested that the range of this species could have been significantly wider than at present. This ENM generated predictions, including several areas forming a diagonal encompassing southern Brazil, Paraguay and Bolivia, including areas within the current distribution of R. boliviana (Fig. 3C). The predicted distribution of R. boliviana at the LIG (Fig. 3F) indicated a similar diagonal pattern, although with lower suitability values, and it did not reach the suitable distribution of R. reitzii as it did under the LGM prediction (Fig. 3E). In addition, the ENMs identified suitability areas for R. boliviana along the Pacific slope, surpassing the Andes, disjunct from the present range of this species (Fig. 3E, F). NICHE MODELLING The replicated models for R. reitzii showed average support values of AUC = 0.995 (SD = 0.004) and TSS = 0.99 (SD = 0.010). For R. boliviana, these values were AUC = 0.921 (SD = 0.090) and TSS = 0.74 (SD = 0.400). Maxent analyses indicated that the variable ‘Annual Temperature Range’ presented the greatest contribution to the R. boliviana model (42.8%), whereas the ‘Precipitation of the Driest Month’ made the greatest contribution for R. reitzii (53.5%) (Table S5). TESTS OF NICHE CONSERVATISM AND DIVERGENCE The niche identity test indicated that the niche overlap indices obtained for R. reitzii and R. boliviana were significantly different from the pseudoreplicated datasets (Schoener’s D = 0.058; Hellinger’s I = 0.214; P < 0.000) (Table 2). The background tests did not indicate significant evidence of either niche divergence or conservatism. The observed niche overlap values, for Schoener’s D © 2014 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 176, 332–348 340 V. A. THODE ET AL. Figure 3. Ecological niche models for Recordia reitzii (A–C) and Recordia boliviana (D–F) obtained with Maxent. Black dots represent species localities on which the models were based. Scale bars on C and F indicate suitability scores represented for R. reitzii and R. boliviana, respectively (the minimum suitability values shown are based on maximum test sensitivity plus specificity threshold). In maps B and E, the coastline is shown for the LGM conditions and current coastline is included as reference. The overview map (a) indicates the current extent of the Atlantic forest with the darker area representing the Ombrophilous Dense Forest. and Hellinger’s I, were not significantly different from the null distributions (Table 2). The tests of niche conservatism and divergence, based on PCA of the raw bioclimatic data, showed three axes that explained 85.8% of the total variation (Table 3). For principal component 1 (PC1), accounting for 47.9% of the total variation, variables that describe temperature and precipitation seasonality presented higher loadings, showing no signal of niche conserva- tism or divergence and a high longitude/latitude correlation (Table 3). The other two principal components (PC2 and PC3) indicated significant niche differences between the Recordia species. PC2 accounted for 24.6% of the total variation and was mainly explained by variables describing extreme temperature conditions, whereas PC3 accounted for 13.2% of the total variation and was mainly explained by variables describing temperature seasonality (Table 3). © 2014 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 176, 332–348 GENETIC DIVERSITY OF RECORDIA REITZII 341 Table 2. Niche overlap values for Helligers’ I and Schoener’s D compared with null distributions generated with the identity test Hellinger’s I Schoener’s D Niche identity test Background test R. reitzii vs. R. boliviana R. reitzii vs. R. boliviana background R. boliviana vs. R. reitzii background Observed values Null distribution Observed values Null distribution Observed values Null distribution 0.21 0.06 0.68–0.96 0.38–0.80 0.21 0.06 0.11–0.35 0.02–0.11 0.21 0.06 0.14–0.21 0.04–0.06 The similarity scores (I and D) are lower than the null hypotheses of niche equivalency, indicating that the bioclimatic niches differ more than expected by chance. Background test values for Helligers’ I and Schoener’s D are given. The observed niche overlap values were not significantly different from the background null distributions, indicating no significant evidence for either niche divergence or conservatism. Table 3. Test of niche divergence vs. conservatism for Recordia reitzii and Recordia boliviana Niche axes Pairwise comparison PC1 PC2 PC3 Observed differences Null distribution Explained (%) Variable loading 1 Variable loading 2 1.91* (1.88–1.92) 47.9 Precipitation of driest month (−0.939) Annual precipitation (−0.914) Variable loading 3 Isothermality (0.896) Variable loading 4 Temperature seasonality (−0.829) Weather seasonality and range 0.96 −0.97 0.47* (0.08–0.24) 24.6 Minimum temperature of coldest month (0.837) Mean temperature of driest quarter (0.69) Mean temperature of wettest quarter (0.683) – 0.77 (0.26–0.43) 13.2 Temperature annual range (−0.923) Temperature seasonality (−0.382) Mean temperature of wettest quarter (−0.32) – Temperature extreme conditions 0.02 0.02 Temperature seasonality Interpretation Longitude correlation Latitude correlation 0.08 −0.02 Bold values indicate significant niche divergence between R. reitzii and R. boliviana. *Niche values differ significantly between lineage pairs (Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney test: P < 0.015). DISCUSSION GENETIC VARIABILITY AND POPULATION STRUCTURE OF R. REITZII The cpDNA data showed that the R. reitzii populations presented lower haplotype and nucleotide diversities compared with other Neotropical trees (Ramos et al., 2009; Novaes et al., 2010; Garcia et al., 2011; Collevatti et al., 2012b), which might be related to the sample size examined as well as the rarity and restricted distribution of R. reitzii (covering an extension of only ∼ 200 km north–south along the Brazilian southeastern coast). The low intrapopulation genetic diversity observed, and the presence of fixed haplotypes in almost all populations, may be a result of small population sizes or of a founder or distribution– reduction effect. In fact, ABC and BSP analyses support that recent population reduction seems the most likely historical scenario that explains the observed population sizes and genetic diversity values. This finding matches with the ecological niche models and their projections to LGM and LIG conditions that propose a wider distribution for R. reitzii in the past (Fig. 3A–C). © 2014 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 176, 332–348 342 V. A. THODE ET AL. The reduction of genetic variability observed in the cpDNA, and the homozygote excess and positive FIS values indicated for the SSR markers, may be a consequence of the reduction of the species distribution since the LGM (Fig. 1 and Table 1). A Wahlund effect (Wahlund, 1928) is unlikely, as the populations did not show high substructuration in the STRUCTURE analysis. The analysis of nuclear markers did not support the presence of exclusive haplotypes in population OSO or, thus, its apparent isolation (Figs 1, 2). The results from the Bayesian cluster analyses shown in Figure 2 may indicate the presence of some level of gene flow among populations. There is no available information about the inheritance of cpDNA in Recordia species or regarding their pollinator agents or seed-dispersion systems. The low number of haplotypes may be related to a recent split, resulting in a short divergence time, to restricted gene flow and/or to the fact that R. reitzii may present a low cpDNA substitution rate. Mantel tests showed a significant association between genetic and geographical distances, indicating a north–south pattern of diversity in the Atlantic forest. A north–south pattern of diversity has been previously observed in this ecoregion for other plant groups, nevertheless with a broader distribution along the Atlantic forest (Lorenz-Lemke et al., 2005; Palma-Silva et al., 2009; Turchetto-Zolet et al., 2012). Our cpDNA and SSR data revealed at least three different genetic units (south, central and north) that may be influenced by the distance between populations (Figs 1, 2). This result was confirmed by the AMOVA results, showing that most of the variability occurs within populations, demonstrating the existence of some level of gene flow. Additionally, each population exhibits one unique haplotype in most cases and presents one unique genetic component predominant in the SSRs, which may be the result of the population phenomena mentioned above, including distribution reduction. Only eight mutations in the cpDNA markers separate the sampled individuals of the two Recordia species, which is less than the number of mutations that distinguish haplotypes H1 and H5 in R. reitzii (Fig. 1), confirming the close relationship between these species (Thode et al., 2013a). Analyses of intraspecific genetic diversity are important for identifying lineages that are geographically and genetically distinct for conservation purposes (Moritz, 1994; Moritz & Faith, 1998; Moritz et al., 2000). The Atlantic forest and its species are under threat from habitat destruction; therefore, the conservation of areas that harbour narrowly distributed species is important to preserve genetic diversity (Moritz et al., 2000). There are areas of protection within the range of occurrence of R. reitzii, such as the Serra Geral National Park, Serra Geral Biological Reserve and Municipal Area of Environmental Protection of Caraá; however, more supervision of the region and execution of the laws are necessary to protect this threatened species. SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELLING The AUC and TSS values indicated that good-quality predictions were generated for both species. However, for R. boliviana, lower and more variable values were obtained (especially for TSS), which could be a result of the reduced sample size. In addition, these TSS values reflect a relatively high variability of the predictions produced across the different combinations of localities included in each of the 10 replicates, suggesting that the models were influenced by the set of localities used to train them. Similar results have been found in other experimental studies using small numbers of occurrence records (Pearson et al., 2007). The ENMs under current climatic conditions also predicted suitable localities outside the known present ranges of the species (Fig. 3A, D). These areas may display similar bioclimatic conditions to the known species occurrence area and could be useful for targeting field surveys to improve the discovery of unknown populations (Pearson et al., 2007; de Siqueira et al., 2009; Kamino et al., 2012). The model of the LGM distribution of R. reitzii showed that this species might have mainly occurred in the same restricted region along the southern Brazilian coast at that time, but in a greater number of suitable areas (from its current distribution towards the coast) owing to the presence of more available land as a result of the lower sea levels at the LGM (Fig. 3B). The ENMs suggested that the current range of Recordia species might represent a relict of a wider population distribution during the LIG because of the presence of more areas with suitable conditions into which forest organisms could expand at that time (warmer and more humid) (Behling et al., 2002; Carnaval & Moritz, 2008; Lorenz-Lemke et al., 2010) (Fig. 3C, F). In the cooler and dryer LGM, the ancestral populations probably retracted and persisted in disjunct areas, being locally restricted to a few locations with suitable ecological conditions that allowed the survival of the two extant species (Fig. 3B, E). The Atlantic forest is mainly separated from other Neotropical humid forests by a ‘dry diagonal’ of seasonally dry biomes composed of open vegetation and savannah-like areas, which include the Caatinga, Cerrado and Chaco (Vanzolini, 1963; Collevatti et al., 2012a). Changes in species’ distributions and persistence in refugia with adequate conditions occur © 2014 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 176, 332–348 GENETIC DIVERSITY OF RECORDIA REITZII more frequently than complete extinctions (VegasVilarrubia et al., 2011; Turchetto-Zolet et al., 2013). During past climatic conditions, plant lineages from different vegetation formations (such as the Amazon and dry forests) may have been connected with the Atlantic forest by migration routes, such as forest corridors (e.g. gallery forests along rivers) or a series of patches (allowing migration through island hopping) (Rizzini, 1963; Andrade-Lima, 1964; Bigarella, Andrade-Lima & Riehs, 1975; Por, 1992; Oliveira-Filho & Ratter, 1995; Costa, 2003). Climate change and the evolutionary history of species appear to be connected. Thus, the study of past climate changes is extremely important for obtaining information regarding future scenarios and for biodiversity conservation (Rull, 2011). Climatic changes may affect the range of species as they track suitable environments (Hewitt, 1996) and may influence their distributions and rates of diversification. In the evolutionary past, corridors for the migration of the organisms were available, allowing movement of species during climate changes (Donoghue, 2008). However, human habitat fragmentation might limit the dispersal of organisms at present and under future climate changes and may influence the assembly of regional species pools (Donoghue, 2008). TESTS OF NICHE CONSERVATISM AND DIVERGENCE The PCA-based niche-divergence test indicated that variables related to extreme temperature conditions (PC2) and temperature seasonality (PC3) might be the factors showing the greatest influence over bioclimatic niche divergence between the Recordia species (Table 3). This divergence could cause ecological specialization and possible changes in environmental tolerances between the species. The raw values of variables that present highest loadings in PC2 for both Recordia species show that R. reitzii presents greater tolerance for colder periods. This may be related to the area occupied by R. reitzii, which presents temperature values for extreme conditions that are significantly different from and lower than those for R. boliviana (bio, 6 Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney test P = 0.0144; bio8, t-test P = 0.0084; bio9, t-test P = 0.0036). Additionally, the localities of R. reitzii present significantly different and higher values of temperature seasonality than do those of R. boliviana (bio4, t-test P < 0.0001). These results indicate that R. reitzii occupies areas with a higher amplitude of temperature conditions, along the southern Atlantic Brazilian coast, compared with the conditions of the environment inhabited by R. boliviana in the low mountains of the eastern Andes (see known localities in Fig. 3A, D). These higher amplitude of conditions 343 could provide more environments (in temperature range) to explore, which may have led to expansion of the niche breadth of R. reitzii in relation to its sister species. Many theoretical and empirical contributions have stressed the artificial increment of niche divergence observed when comparing the bioclimatic niches between allopatric species (Godsoe, 2010, 2012; McCormack et al., 2010; Peterson, 2011). In addition, niche conservatism has been accepted as a predominant feature in evolutionary biology (Peterson, Soberón & Sánchez-Cordero, 1999; Prinzing et al., 2001; Wiens & Graham, 2005). Taking into account these two factors, our results regarding bioclimatic niche divergence in Recordia should be carefully interpreted. We may infer that the bioclimatic data used in our analyses present a strong geographical correlation and that most of the data on these variables indicate regional variation, rather than ecological niche characteristics. Therefore, the niche divergence test based on ENM comparisons (Table 2) did not reveal significant niche divergence between the Recordia species (the differences between the bioclimatic spaces occupied by the species did not exceed the differences between regions). Fortunately, the orthogonal transformation of the variables in the PCA allowed all of this geographical correlation among the variables and the overall data on regional variation to be combined into a principal component (PC1 is the only axis that showed a geographical correlation; Table 3), after which the residual data could be used to obtain ‘clean’ information (PC2 and PC3) to test the bioclimatic niche divergence of Recordia. Our results suggest that late Pleistocene fluctuations and bioclimatic factors might have played an important role in the distribution of Recordia species (Moritz et al., 2000), possibly through promoting niche shifts among these species. Finally, to make further inferences regarding the patterns of diversification observed in Recordia, dated phylogenies and analyses of divergence time estimates are necessary for the Verbenaceae. The information generated in this study regarding genetic variability, taking into account the genetically distinct units (south, central and north) indicated by the cpDNA and SSR data and the responses of R. reitzii to climate change, which revealed a retraction of the populations of this species compared with the LGM and LIG predictions, might be useful for generating conservation strategies for this endangered species. More in-depth biological studies, such as analyses of pollination and dispersal systems, are required to shed light on what factors influence the low genetic diversity found in R. reitzii populations. © 2014 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 176, 332–348 344 V. A. THODE ET AL. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We thank Ana Luíza R. 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One specimen of Recordia reitzii in its natural habitat (Osório, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil). Photo: V. Thode. © 2014 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 176, 332–348 348 V. A. THODE ET AL. Figure S2. Bayesian skyline plot showing the fluctuations in effective population size (Ne) over time (kBP, thousands of years before present). The analysis was conducted with three cpDNA noncoding regions (trnHpsbA, trnS-trnG, and rpl32-trnL) sequences. Time estimates obtained using a relaxed molecular clock model with the substitution rate previously estimated for chloroplast noncoding regions (1.0 × 10−9, Wolfe et al., 1987) and a HKY (Hasegawa, Kishino, and Yano) nucleotide substitution model. Table S1. Voucher information for the Recordia boliviana specimens sampled for cpDNA analyses. Table S2. GenBank accession numbers for trnH-psbA, trnS-trnG, and rpl32-trnL sequences, respectively, used in this study. Table S3. Geographic coordinates of the Recordia reitzii (Rr) and R. boliviana (Rb) occurrence records used in Ecological Niche Modeling. Table S4. Correlation matrix for all pairs of the 19 climatic variables obtained from WorldClim (Hijmans et al., 2005), calculated in ENMTools (Warren et al., 2008), with Pearson correlation coefficients. Table S5. The nine climatic variables used for the Ecological Niche Modeling of Recordia reitzii and R. boliviana. Table S6. DIYABC analysis with SSR data. A = model check values and B = marginal posterior probability densities for parameters of the bottleneck scenario. © 2014 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 176, 332–348
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