SOIL FERTILITY AND PRODUCTIVITY DECLINE RESULTING FROM TWENTY-TWO YEARS OF INTENSIVE TARO CULTIVATION IN TAVEUNI, FIJI by Ami Chand Sharma A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Agriculture Copyright © 2016 by Ami Chand Sharma School of Agriculture and Food Technology Faculty of Business and Economics The University of the South Pacific March, 2016 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I would like to express my sincere gratitude to the Government of Australia through the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR) for sponsoring my study for a Master of Agriculture degree. I am grateful to my employer, the Government of Fiji, for providing me this opportunity to pursue higher studies. I want to express my gratefulness to my supervisor Dr. D. Guinto for his excellent guidance. Without his direct assistance, this thesis would not have been possible. Also, I would like to express my special thanks to Ms. Miliakere Nawaikula, Director of Research Division, and Ministry of Agriculture for the encouragement and assistance throughout my study period especially during the data collection. I would like to appreciate Mr. Rohit Lal, Agriculture Officer, Ministry of Agriculture, Taveuni for providing the taro production and export reject data of the research sites. Thanks to my fellow colleagues at the Koronivia Research station for assisting in retrieving soil fertility data from archival files. I would also like to thank Director of Meteorological Services for his consent and approval to access climatic data of Taveuni. I would like to extend my sincere gratitude to Mr. Sanjay Anand who always had time for me and had the advice ready. Thank you very much for your valuable assistance in the statistical analysis of my research data. It was always a pleasure to discuss with him a draft of content of this thesis. I enjoyed the way he raised questions that always allowed me to dig more into the scientific content of my research. iii This study would not have been possible without constant and valuable support from my family, particularly my lovely wife, Kusum Sharma who was behind my shoulders encouraging me and feeding my hopes to get successful results. Thanks to my sons Antriksh and Kritesh, for their constant stimulation and for showing me the sense of our life. To my family members and friends who have been constantly interested in my progress with the studies - May God bless you all. iv ABSTRACT Soil degradation is the loss of actual or potential productivity and utility of the soil and it implies a decline in the soil’s inherent capacity to produce economic goods and perform environmental regulatory functions. With short-term observations, the transient phenomena can be missed or misinterpreted. In general, observations made over a long period allow more rigorous conclusions with regards to decline in soil fertility. Soil data for “22-year period” was retrieved from the archival files at the Koronivia Research Station while other important information was gathered through survey questionnaire and ministry officials based on the Island. The effects of 22 years continuous cropping of taro on selected soil chemical properties and yields were studied on the island of Taveuni, Fiji. The high native fertility levels and production potential of Taveuni Andosols declined rapidly when the forest cover was replaced by the annual crop of taro. This was particularly evident from the trend analyses of the nutrient elements which, altogether with soil pH and taro yields, revealed significant declines, with the exception of exchangeable K. Significant associations between and dependence of taro yields on soil pH, Olsen P, exchangeable Ca and exchangeable Mg were also observed. In addition, significant changes in these four chemical parameters were observed when the pre and the post cultivation levels were compared. Olsen P and exchangeable Mg were identified to be the most limiting nutrients for the taro soils of Taveuni. The archival database provides an important tool for looking at soil test trends over time on taro commercial sites. v TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 1 Chapter 2 Introduction 1 1.1 Research problem 3 1.2 Research objectives 4 1.3 Research questions 4 1.4 Research approach 5 Literature Review 6 2.1 Background of Fiji 6 2.1.1 Fiji’s taro industry 6 2.1.2 Taveuni soils 7 2.1.3 Detailed description and fertility status of Taveuni soils 7 2.1.3.1 The Andosols 8 2.1.3.1.1 Vitric Andosols 8 2.1.3.1.2 Humic Andosols 8 2.1.3.2 The Ferralsols 9 2.1.3.2.1 Ferralic Cambisols 9 2.1.3.2.2 The Humic Ferralsols 9 2.2 Soil chemical properties 10 2.2.1 Soil reaction- pH 11 2.2.2 Total Nitrogen 11 2.2.3 Available P 12 vi 2.2.4 Exchangeable potassium 13 2.2.5 Exchangeable calcium and magnesium 13 2.3 Historical land use and land cover change of Taveuni 14 2.4 Agricultural intensification 14 2.5 Soil fertility degradation 15 2.6 Soil fertility degradation in relation to land use and land cover 17 change Chapter 3 2.7 Soil fertility trends under different landuse 19 2.8 Soil fertility decline and spatial and temporal boundaries 21 2.9 Data types to assess soil fertility decline 21 2.9.1 Expert knowledge 22 2.9.2 Type I data 22 2.9.3 Type II data 22 2.9.4 Semi quantitative data 23 2.10 Minimum data set 23 Materials and Methods 25 3.1 Scope of study 25 3.2 Origin of Taveuni 25 3.3 Soil Sampling sites 26 3.4 Data collection 28 3.4.1 Soil chemical fertility indices 28 3.4.2 Taro production data 28 3.4.3 Meteorological data 28 vii 3.4.4 Crop management data Chapter 4 29 3.5 Statistical Analysis 29 Results and Discussion 31 4.1 Meteorological parameters 31 4.1.1 Rainfall 31 4.1.2 Temperature 32 4.2 Soil chemical indices 33 4.2.1 Soil pH 33 4.2.2 Total soil nitrogen 34 4.2.3 Olsen available phosphorus 35 4.2.4 Exchangeable K 36 4.2.5 Exchangeable Ca 37 4.2.6 Exchangeable Mg 38 4.2.7 Ca:Mg ratio 39 4.3 Taro production and export rejects 40 4.3.1 Taro yields 40 4.3.2 41 Taro export rejects 4.4 Correlation analysis between the selected meteorological variables, 42 taro yields and soil chemical indices 4.4.1 Dry production strata 42 4.4.2 Intermediate production strata 43 4.4.3 Wet production strata 44 viii 4.5 Relationship of selected chemical indices to taro corm yield 46 4.6 48 Comparison of soil chemical properties between pre and post 22 year cultivation period 4.7 Changes in selected soil management practices over 22 year 54 cultivation period 4.8 Chapter 5 Production constraints as identified by taro growers 57 59 Summary and Conclusions References 61 Appendices 74 ix LIST OF TABLES Table 3.1 Research sites under each strata Table 4.1 (a) Correlation matrix of selected meteorological and soil chemical 26 43 indices of taro soils from the dry production strata of Taveuni (b) Correlation matrix of selected meteorological and soil chemical 44 indices of taro soils from the intermediate production strata of Taveuni (c) Correlation matrix of selected meteorological and soil chemical 45 indices of taro soils from the wet production strata of Taveuni Table 4.2 Estimates of parameters for the multiple linear regression analysis of 47 yield on soil pH, Olsen P, exchangeable Ca and exchangeable Mg Table 4.3 (a) Paired sample t-test for the chemical indicators between pre and post 50 period of intensive cultivation (b) Soil chemical fertility decline resulting from 22 year intensive 51 cultivation Table 4.4 Comparisons of end of research period levels against critical levels 52 and suggested ameliorative measures Table 4.5 (a) Distribution of land tenure systems for the surveyed farms (b) Distribution of farm size under taro cultivation x 55 56 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 3.1 Location of the study area 27 Figure 3.2 Soil sampling sites 29 Figure 4.1 (a) & (b) Rainfall pattern and 22 year mean annual seasonal distribution 33 for the island of Taveuni Figure 4.2 (a) & (b) Mean annual and 22 year monthly mean temperature 34 Figure 4.3 (a) Soil pH trends for the three taro production strata 35 (b) Figure 4.4 (a) (b) Figure 4.5 (a) (b) Figure 4.6 (a) (b) Figure 4.7 (a) (b) Figure 4.8 (a) (b) Figure 4.9 (a) 22 year mean pH trend for Taveuni Total N trends for the three taro production strata 22 year mean Total N trend for Taveuni Olsen available P trends for the three taro production strata 38 22 year mean Olsen available P trend for Taveuni Exchangeable K trends for the three taro production strata 39 22 year mean Exchangeable K trend for Taveuni Exchangeable Ca trends for the three taro production strata 37 22 year mean Exchangeable Ca trend for Taveuni Exchangeable Mg trends for the three taro production strata 38 22 year mean Exchangeable Mg trend for Taveuni Ca:Mg Ratio trends for the three taro production strata (b) 22 year mean Ca:Mg ratio trend for Taveuni (c) Relative removal of Ca and Mg Figure 4.10 (a) 36 Taro yield trends for the three taro production strata xi 39 40 (b) Figure 4.11 (a) (b) 22 year mean yield trend for Taveuni Taro export reject trends for the three taro production strata 41 22 year mean export reject trend for Taveuni Figure 4.12 (a) Regression of taro yield on soil pH 46 (b) Regression of taro yield on Total N 46 (c) Regression of taro yield on Olsen P 46 (d) Regression of taro yield on Exchangeable K 46 (e) Regression of taro yield on Exchangeable Ca 46 (f) Regression of taro yield on Exchangeable Mg 46 Figure 4.13 Farmer adoption of various management practices to support 54 intensive cultivation Figure 4.14 Identification of production constraints by farmers xii 57 LIST OF APPENDICES Appendix 1 Soil and land use capability maps of Taveuni 74 Appendix 2 Export specification for taro 75 Appendix 3 1990 – 2012 Data on: A) Soil Fertility, B) Temperature, C) Rainfall 76 and D) Taro production (1994 – 2013) Appendix 4 Analysis of variance for between rainfall-zones (strata) comparison Appendix 5 Paired sample t-test for comparisons of soil chemical indices pre and 82 90 post 22-year cultivation period Appendix 6 Correlation analyses for association between indices for the dry zone 105 (strata) of Taveuni Appendix 7 Correlation analyses for association between indices for the 105 intermediate zone (strata) of Taveuni Appendix 8 Correlation analyses for association between indices for the wet zone 117 (strata) of Taveuni Appendix 9 22- year trend regression analyses of variance Appendix 10 Linear regression analyses of variance of taro yield on individual 129 134 chemical indices Appendix 11 Multiple linear regression analyses of variance of taro yield on 137 significant individual chemical indices Appendix 12 Farmer survey questionnaire xiii 138 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION Soil is a fundamental resource on which human populations are dependent for food, fuel and fibre. Land use shifts and their sustainability are an important part of global change, and it is through the response of the plant-soil system that climate change will have its main impact on humankind. Furthermore, it is in the tropics that the demands of developing human populations are most tightly linked to climate- and soil-determined limits. Paradoxically, it is in this zone and on these topics that our capacity to respond scientifically is weakest (Swift, 1984). Successful agriculture requires the sustainable use of soil resource, because soils can easily lose their quality and quantity within a short period of time for many reasons. Agricultural practice therefore, requires basic knowledge of sustainable use of the land. Success in soil management to maintain soil quality depends on the understanding of how the soil responds to agricultural practices over time (Negassa, 2001). Revising these trends lies in the enhancement of sustainable development of the agricultural sector. However, the basis of this sustainable agricultural development is good quality of soil, since maintenance of soil quality is an integral part of sustainable agriculture. Although soils in the tropical regions are highly diverse, with some soils having a high production potential, there are many areas where the soil resources suffer from serious limitations hindering agricultural production and development. Some tropical soils have a very low chemical fertility, are extremely acidic and contain toxic substances (Young, 1999). Changes in land use and land cover are central to the study global environmental change including soil fertility, degradation, and reflect the rapid population growth in tropics. As a result of increasing demand for food and fibre, natural land covers, particularly tropical forests are being degraded or converted to cropland at an alarming rate (Islam 1 and Weil, 2000). Humans as a soil forming factor has been a difficult issue in pedology (Hartemink, 2003), whereas many soils in the world have been drastically altered or degraded as a result of human interference (Wu and Tiessen, 2002). Soil fertility degradation by nutrient depletion, mostly caused by erosion but also by removal of nutrients in crops, is one of the threats that taro production systems in Taveuni are facing (Kumwenda et al., 1996). Soil erosion is obviously the most visible and sometimes most destructive form and has received considerable attention in Fiji’s land use policy. Taro is Fiji’s largest agricultural export after sugar (FAO, 2012a). Fiji’s annual taro export for the last few years has been around 10,000 tonnes, earning about FJD 19–20 million annually with about 65% going to New Zealand and the balance to Australia and the USA (McGregor, 2011). Taveuni accounts for 70% of Fiji’s taro exports (Sun Fiji Newsroom, 2009). Despite taro (Colocasia esculenta) being the staple diet for Fijians for centuries, its cultivation as a highly significant export crop began only in 1993 when the taro leaf blight disease decimated the Samoan taro industry (McGregor, 2011). Fiji took advantage of the opportunity and captured the market for the same variety of taro internationally, especially Australia, New Zealand and United States. The taro exports increased from 3,000 tons in 1994 to 10,000 tons in 2009 (Ministry of Primary Industries-Taveuni Annual Report, 2010). However, the island’s taro exports stagnated during recent years due to declining productivity and increasing production costs (McGregor, 2011). The productive capacity of a soil depends on soil fertility. Achieving and maintaining appropriate levels of soil fertility is of utmost importance if agricultural land is to remain capable of nourishing crop production. After 22 years of intense taro cultivation and with little or no fallow practice, due to scarcity of land resources and other economic 2 factors, the fertility and the productivity of the Taveuni taro soils will predictably decline due to cultivation, soil erosion and nutrient uptake. Soil fertility evaluation is largely based on old data and development of several generic crop models (Bouma, 1989). There is a great need for updated soil survey and soil fertility information to monitor the effects of current and past land management on soil properties. 1.1 Research problem Soil fertility degradation has become a major problem for agricultural management in Taveuni. The main agent causing change in controlling processes is human activity, mainly agriculture, and a complete explanation of fertility components cannot be achieved without an understanding of human-induced soil change at landscape level (Pennock and Veldkamp, 2006). Land use changes, especially cultivation of deforested land may rapidly diminish soil quality. However, the decline of soil fertility in the complex lithology of Taveuni taro soils is currently poorly understood. In order to design and implement the national policy in conservation and restoration of soil fertility, policy makers need a clear view of nutrient removal and how much needs to be restored. As with accurate information on soil fertility, soil change information is needed by today’s decision makers for a variety of management goals, including short and long-term productivity, economics, sustainability and environmental quality. The Taveuni taro study area provides an ideal ‘laboratory’ for assessing soil fertility change, since: (1) it was largely forested until commercial taro production commenced in the year 1993; (2) there was a baseline soil survey done prior to deforestation; and (3) the area has been deforested and due to agricultural and settlement activities, it has faced dramatic erosion and changes in soil management, in particular intensive cropping of taro. 3 1.2 Research objectives This study is aimed to investigate, quantify and establish temporal trends of selected soil chemical indices for Taveuni taro soils resulting from land use change and related management. The specific objectives of this research are: 1. To determine the temporal trends of selected soil chemical indicators, climatic variables and taro yields over a period of 22 years for the island of Taveuni. 2. To investigate existence of any temporal association between selected soil chemical indicators, climatic variables and taro yields over a period of 22 years for the island of Taveuni. 3. To compare spatial distribution of changes in selected soil chemical indicators, climatic variables and taro yields over a period of 22 years across stratified climatic zones on the island of Taveuni. 4. To determine the temporal changes in the adoption by farmers of selected soil management practices relevant to the maintenance of soil fertility in Taveuni. 1.3 1. Research questions Is there a significant change in soil fertility over the last 22 years? If so, what is it, and where are the changes most pronounced? 2. How does the change in individual indicators of soil fertility reflect on the final yield? 3. To what extent, does land use change (agricultural intensification) contributes to soil fertility change at island level? 4. Is there any association that exists between changes in climatic variables and changes in soil fertility? 1.4 Research Approach A study on how land-use and land cover change affects the soil fertility must involve the response of the soil fertility indicators. In fact, all the soil properties are not equally affected by the land-use and land cover change in space and time. For example, previous 4 studies have shown that most of the physical properties are usually much less variable over short distances than chemical properties (Yemefack, 2005). Cost is also one of the principal factors that lead to minimise the sample size and parameters in many researches. The database will provide a tool for investigating temporal trends with regards to selected soil chemical parameters of the study sites and provide an insight into assessing the sustainability of soil fertility management practices of commercial taro production. 5 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW The review of literature has been divided into ten subsections. The first two sections give an overview of Fiji, taro industry, and detailed description of Taveuni soils. The next section gives the brief on soil fertility indices and its importance. The fourth section provides the overview of land use and land cover change of Taveuni. While the rest of the sections discussed on agricultural intensification and its consequences, and the final section of the review discussed on data types used to assess soil fertility decline and advantages. 2.1 Background of Fiji The Fiji group lies in the southern hemisphere between latitudes 15 to 22 degrees south and longitudes of 174 degrees east and 17 degrees west (Wikipedia, 2001). Fiji islands consist of 332 islands spread across 1.3 million square kilometres of Economic Exclusive Zone and its total land mass is 18,333 square kilometres (Berdah, 2005). The two major islands are Viti Levu with 10,429 square kilometres and Vanua Levu 5,556 square kilometres. Taveuni is the third largest island in the group with 470 square km of land mass (Fiji Government Online Portal, 2009). The climate is of the typical oceanic type with the southeast trade winds prevailing. The hot, wet months are from November to April. The annual rainfall of the island ranges from 2,400-4,500 mm (All Fiji, 2011). 2.1.1 Fiji’s taro industry Taro is Fiji’s largest agricultural export after sugar (FAO, 2012a). Fiji’s annual taro export for the last few years has been around 10,000 tonnes, earning about FJD 19–20 million annually with about 65% going to New Zealand and the balance to Australia and the USA (McGregor, 2011). Taveuni accounts for 70% of Fiji’s taro exports (Sun Fiji Newsroom, 2009). The variety grown in Taveuni is the same as the variety that was grown in Samoa before the taro leaf 6 blight and is called ‘Tausala ni Samoa’ (Wikipedia, 2012). The taro exports increased from 3,000 tons in 1994 to 10,000 tons in 2009 (Ministry of Primary Industries-Taveuni Annual Report, 2010). However, the island’s taro exports stagnated during recent years due to declining productivity and increasing production costs (McGregor, 2011). 2.1.2 Taveuni soils Soils of Taveuni are highly variable in the physical and chemical properties. Twentythree soil series have been surveyed and described on the island. Many of the soils have been derived from volcanic ash (Wikipedia, 2011). The soils belong to the orders Inceptisols and Andosols, having low bulk density with the exchange complex dominated by amorphous materials (Morrison et al., 1986). According to Leslie (1997), the Taveuni soils have the following properties: a. Acid oxalate extractable aluminum is 2% or more b. Bulk density of the fine earth, measured in the field moist state, is less than 0.9g/cm³. c. Phosphate retention is more than 85%. 2.1.3 Detailed description and its fertility status The soils of Taveuni are all of recent origin, being from recent volcanic deposits. Twyford and Wright (1965) classed the whole as ‘latosolic soils’, and regarded them as an essential homogeneous complex. However, they have been subjected to the weathering effects of humid tropical climate and pedological development is very rapid under these conditions. Detailed studies of soils in the north and south of the island reveal that the soils of the two areas have evolved quite differently. The north of the island is characterised by very mature soils (Ferralsols), rich in sesquioxides of alumina and iron; in the south, on the other hand, the soils are very much youthful (Andosols) and the mineral complex remains only weakly crystallised. It seems most probable that the different state of development of soils in the two regions is linked to the age of volcanic material from which they are formed. 7 2.1.3.1 The Andosols Andosols of Taveuni are characterised by very weak profile differentiation, high porosity accompanying low bulk density, and a dominance of allophanes among the clay minerals (FAO-UNESCO, 1974). Two types are encountered: Vitric Andosols rich in unaltered volcanic material and sandy in texture while Humic Andosols which are more deeply weathered, rich in organic material and with humiferous horizons of average base saturation levels (Appendix 1). 2.1.3.1.1 Vitric Andosols Vitric Andosols are developed in southern Taveuni on volcanic cones and their lower slopes. Soils on these slopes are shallow; contain large numbers of lapilli, and many blocks of vesicular lava. At the foot of the cones soils are deeper and of finer texture. These latter are rich in organic matter and nitrogen. The pH levels are weakly acid; the soils have a high cation exchange capacity (CEC) and weak base saturation. Potassium levels are high. Total analysis reveals that the youth of the soils by high levels of insoluble material and of alkaline and soil-alkali cations. Phosphorus reserves are important, and the assimilable fraction, extracted by Olsen reagent, is high. These soils thus have very high fertility, and their agronomic potential is limited by conditions of slope (FAO-UNESCO, 1974). 2.1.3.1.2 Humic Andosols Humic Andosols found only in the south of the island, particularly on gentler slopes. The effect of recent eruptions is weaker, and the soils are more finely textured, with higher clay content. Three sub-types are distinguished: soils with a gravelly horizon at shallow depth (petric phase); soils with the surface littered by blocks of basalt (stony phase); deep soils (deep phase). It is very difficult to delimit the distribution of these three phases for mapping purposes, as they have no sharp boundaries. Chemical analysis of the Humic Andosols shows them to be rich in organic matter closely bound to the mineral elements. Nitrogen levels are high. The pH is weakly acid; cation exchange capacity is high and base saturation levels average. Elements such as calcium and magnesium are abundant, but exchangeable potassium is rather lean except in the 8 humiferous horizons. Phosphorus is very abundant, and the assimilable fraction of this element is high. These soils thus have a very high mineral fertility and their agronomic value is limited chiefly by slope and by soil texture (FAO-UNESCO, 1974). 2.1.3.2 The Ferralsols The Ferralsols and associated soils are found in the north of the island. These soils have developed a distinct ferralitic character. Among the clay minerals, allophane has practically disappeared, and has been replaced by kaolinites and by sesquioxides of aluminium and iron. Two main types are distinguished: Ferralic Cambisols in which ferralitic characteristics are not yet strong, with a high level of halloysites and metahalloysites and the other one as Humic Ferralsols in which sesquioxides of aluminium and iron predominate in the mineral fraction. 2.1.3.2.1 The Ferralic Cambisols The Ferralic Cambisols are fairly shallow, the weathered horizon being seldom deeper than 60 cm. To some extent these soils are poorer in organic matter content than the Andosols. Nitrogen levels are high, pH levels are weakly acid, cation exchange capacity is high and average base saturation levels. However, there is a slight potassium deficiency. Phosphorus levels are high, comparable with those of the Andosols, but the assimilable fraction is much lower than the latter group of soils. Mineral fertility is thus only average, but the soils have good agronomic possibilities being found mainly in areas of gentle slope in the extreme north and northeast (FAO-UNESCO, 1974). 2.1.3.2.2 The Humic Ferralsols The Humic Ferralsols are deep soils with a maturely evolved clay mineral fraction; however, they often contain large quantities of gravel and almost unweathered blocks of basalt. They are rich in organic matter content, but the carbon/nitrogen ratio is often high. In some localities they are quite highly acidic. The cation exchange capacity is weak, and the base saturation levels high. Exchangeable cations are of average values in the humiferous horizon, but very low in the mineral horizons. Phosphorus reserves are good, but the assimilable fraction of this element, as in the Cambisols, is low (FAOUNESCO, 1974). 9 Two sub-types may be distinguished within the Humic Ferralsols. Rocky soils are developed in the steep and the very steep areas in the northern end of the volcanic chain, and around isolated cones. Deeper soils, sometimes with patches of stone in the profiles, are encountered on the undulating terrain away from the main volcanic chain. Humic Ferralsols where little rockiness or on steep and gentle slopes have good agronomic qualities. However, it would seem likely that these soils are much more fragile and less likely to retain their qualities under prolonged cultivation, than the Andosols (FAOUNESCO, 1974). Twyford and Wright (1965) classed Taveuni soils as ‘fertile’. They are probably the most fertile soils in the whole Fijian archipelago. However, there are quite important differences within the island, and these have agronomic significance. Taro yields, as determined by Haynes (1976), are generally higher in the north than in the south, and the highest yield obtained was from a steep site on the petric phase of the Humic Ferralsols while the lowest yield obtained was from a site on gently undulating land with Humic Andosols in the south. However, the former was a first crop; and the latter from land used continuously for more than a decade so they are not truly comparable. The allophanes present in large quantity in the Andosols have the potential of retaining nutritive elements and thus depriving the plants of sustenance, whereas nutrients are more readily released from the Ferralsols in the north. It is probably because the fertility of the Ferralsols is more quickly exhausted (FAO-UNESCO, 1974). 2.2 Soil Chemical Properties Soil chemical properties are the most important among the factors that determine the nutrient supplying power of the soil to the plants and soil microbes. The chemical reactions that occur in the soil affect processes leading to soil development, soil fertility build up and soil biology. Minerals inherited from the soil parent materials overtime release chemical elements that undergo various changes and transformations within the soil. 10 2.2.1 Soil Reaction - pH Soil reaction or pH affects nutrient availability and toxicity, microbial activity, and root growth. Thus, it is one of the most important chemical characteristics of the soil solution because both higher plants and microorganisms respond so markedly to their chemical environment. Descriptive terms commonly associated with certain ranges in pH are extremely acidic (pH < 4.5), very strongly acidic (pH 4.5-5.0), strongly acidic (pH 5.1 5.5), moderately acidic (pH 5.6 - 6.0), slightly acid (pH 6.1 - 6.5), neutral (pH 6.6 - 7.3), slightly alkaline (pH 7.4 - 7.8), moderately alkaline (pH 7.9-8.4), strongly alkaline (pH 8.5 - 9.0), and very strongly alkaline (pH > 9.1) (Foth and Ellis, 1997). The degree and nature of soil reaction influenced by different anthropogenic and natural activities including leaching of exchangeable bases, acid rains, decomposition of organic materials, application of commercial fertilisers and other farming practices (Rowell, 1994; Miller and Donahue, 1995; Tisdale et al.,1995; Brady and Weil, 2002). In strongly acidic soils, Al3+ becomes soluble and increase soil acidity while in alkaline soils, exchangeable basic cations tend to occupy the exchange sites of the soils by replacing exchangeable H and Al ions (Miller and Donahue, 1995; Eylachew, 1999; Brady and Weil, 2002). 2.2.2 Total nitrogen Nitrogen (N) is the fourth plant nutrient taken up by plants in greatest quantity next to carbon, oxygen and hydrogen, but it is one of the most deficient elements in the tropics for crop production (Sanchez, 1976; Mengeland Kirkby, 1987; Mesfin, 1998). The total N content of soil is directly associated with its organic carbon (OC) content and its amount on cultivated soils is between 0.03% and 0.04% by weight (Mengel and Kirkby, 1987; Tisdale et al., 1995) but could be high even on tropical soils not subjected to intensive cultivation (e.g. Samoan soils). The N content is lower in continuously and intensively cultivated and highly weathered soils due to leaching and low organic matter (OM) content (Tisdale et al., 1995). Wakene (2001) reported that there was a 30% and 76% depletion of total N from agricultural fields cultivated for 40 years and abandoned land, respectively, compared to the virgin land in Bako area, Ethiopia. Average total N increased from cultivated to grazing and forest land soils, which again declined with 11 increasing depth from surface to subsurface soils (Nega, 2006). The considerable reduction of total N in the continuously cultivated fields could be attributed to the rapid turnover (mineralisation) of the organic substrates derived from crop residue (root biomass) whenever added, following intensive cultivation (McDonagh et al., 2001). Moreover, the decline in soil OC and total N, although commonly expected following deforestation and conversion to farm fields, might have been exacerbated by the insufficient inputs of organic substrates from the farming system (Mulugeta, 2004). The same author also stated that the levels of soil OC and total N in the surface soil (0-10 cm) were significantly lower, and declined increasingly with cultivation time in the farm fields, compared to the soil under the natural forest 2.2.3 Available phosphorus Phosphorus (P) is known as the master key to agriculture because lack of available P in the soils limits the growth of both cultivated and uncultivated plants (Foth and Ellis, 1997). Following N, P has more widespread influence on both natural and agricultural ecosystems than any of the other essential elements. In most natural ecosystems, such as forests and grasslands, P uptake by plants is constrained by both the low total quantity of the element in the soil and very low solubility of the scarce quantity that is present (Brady and Weil, 2002). It is the most commonly plant growth-limiting nutrient in the tropical soils next to water and N (Mesfin, 1996). Erosion tends to transport largely the clay and OM fractions of the soil, which are relatively rich in P fractions. Thus, compared to the original soil, eroded sediments are often enriched in P by a ratio of two or more (Brady and Weil 2002). According to Foth and Ellis (1997), natural soil will contain from 50 to over 1,000 mg of total P/kg of soil. Of this quantity, about 30 to 50% may be in inorganic form in mineral soils (Foth and Ellis, 1997). The main sources of plant available P are the weathering of soil minerals, the decomposition and mineralisation of soil OM and commercial mineral fertilisers. Most of the soils in tropical, particularly Andosols and other acid soils are known to have low P contents, not only due to the inherently low available P content, but also due to the high P fixation capacity of the soils due to the allophane component. 12 2.2.4 Exchangeable Potassium Soil parent materials contain potassium (K) mainly in feldspars and micas. As these minerals weather, the K ions released become either exchangeable or exist as adsorbed or as soluble in the solution (Foth and Ellis, 1997). Potassium is the third most important essential element next to N and P that limit plant productivity. Its behaviour in the soil is influenced primarily by soil cation exchange properties and mineral weathering rather than by microbiological processes. Unlike N and P, K causes no off-site environmental problems when it leaves the soil system. It is not toxic and does not cause eutrophication in aquatic systems (Brady and Weil, 2002). Wakene (2001) reported that the variation in the distribution of K depends on the mineral present, particles size distribution, degree of weathering, soil management practices, climatic conditions, degree of soil development, the intensity of cultivation and the parent material from which the soil is formed. The greater the proportion of clay mineral high in K, the greater will be the potential K availability in soils (Tisdale et al., 1995). Soil K is mostly in mineral form and the daily K needs of plants are little affected by organic associated K, except for exchangeable K adsorbed on OM. Mesfin (1996) described low presence of exchangeable K under acidic soils while Alemayehu (1990) observed low K under intensive cultivation. 2.2.5 Exchangeable calcium and magnesium Soils in areas of moisture scarcity have less potential to be affected by leaching of cations than soils under wet conditions (Jordan, 1993). Soils under continuous cultivation, application of acid forming inorganic fertilisers, high exchangeable and extractable Al and low pH are characterised by low contents of Ca and Mg mineral nutrients resulting in Ca and Mg deficiency due to excessive leaching (Dudal and Decaers, 1993). Exchangeable Mg commonly saturates only 5 to 20% of the effective CEC, as compared to the 60 to 90% typical for Ca in neutral to somewhat acid soils (Brady and Weil, 2002). The response to calcium fertilisers is ideal for most crops when the exchangeable Ca is less than 0.2cmol (+)/kg of soils, while 0.5cmol (+)/kg soil is reported to be the deficiency threshold level for Mg in the tropics (Landon, 1991). 13 2.3 Historical land use and land cover change of Taveuni The change in land use on the island of Taveuni is a result of rapid expansion of taro cultivation following severe taro leaf blight incidence in Samoa, which devastated taro production and resulted in loss of Samoan taro export market in the year 1993. Prior to this ‘great taro revolution’, agricultural lands on the island were only farmed in a traditional manner for subsistence purposes. Farmers reasonably fallowed their land under the practice of shifting cultivation and this somewhat maintained soil fertility. However, with the prospect of lucrative export markets, new areas were opened up for commercial taro production. This export production demand coupled with an increase in human population, exerted great pressure on the island’s remaining fragile natural ecosystems, particularly natural rainforests. Fallow durations were reduced and dependency on chemical fertilisers increased until it became no longer sustainable. Attaining optimum taro yield and meeting export requirements for specifications became difficult. Consequently, rejects from the export markets were high, causing huge loss of farmer income. 2.4 Agricultural Intensification Agricultural intensification is a production system conventionally characterised by a low fallow ratio and an intensive use of inputs, such as capital, labour, pesticides, and chemical fertilisers, to raise agricultural yields, thereby increasing farmers’ income level and reducing poverty. Previous studies demonstrated that intensive agricultural production has led to increased erosion, lower soil fertility, and reduced biodiversity (Matson et al., 1997). Expansion of cultivation in many parts of East Africa has changed land cover to more agro-ecosystems and less cover of natural vegetation. These changes are fuelled by a growing demand for agricultural products that are necessary to improve food security and generate income not only for the rural subsistence farmers but also for the largescale investors in commercial farming sector. Food production in Kenya, for example, is reported to have increased steadily between 1980 and 1990, but with increase with 14 population, the food supply in calories per head fell slightly during that same period. Historically, humans have increased agricultural outputs mainly by bringing more land into production (Lambin et al., 2003). Indeed, land conversion to agriculture in East Africa has outpaced the proportional human population growth in recent decades. Natural vegetation cover has given way not only to cropland but also to native or planted pasture (Lambin et al., 2003). Globally, concerns about the changes in land use/cover emerged due to realisation that land surface processes influence climate and that change in these processes impact on ecosystem goods and services (Lambin et al., 2003). The impacts that have been of primary concern are the effects of land use change on biological diversity, soil degradation and the ability of biological systems to support human needs. Crop yields have declined, forcing people to cultivate more land to meet their needs (Kaihura and Stocking, 2003). Grazing areas have become scarce and less productive resulting from over stocking of livestock. 2.5 Soil fertility degradation Global Assessment of Soil Degradation has shown that the soil chemical degradation is believed to be important in many parts of the tropics. The major factors contributing towards declining soil fertility are: insufficient usage of fertilisers, reduction in soil OM, and inadequate consideration to crop nutrient needs (Kumwenda et al., 1996). The increase in fertiliser prices has forced farmers to limit its use (Ministry of Agriculture, 2010). In addition, continuous mono-cropping and poor husbandry practices have decreased yields and profitability margins (Silatoga, 2012). Soil fertility depletion is one of the major environmental and economic issues in developing countries like Fiji. Evidence suggests that the land degradation problem in Fiji is not improving in spite awareness of the numerous environmental issues (MPI, 2010). The primary form of land degradation in most productive soils in Fiji is the soil chemical fertility degradation (Asafu-Adjaye, 2008). The loss of the soil chemical fertility in most agricultural soils in Fiji is due to nutrient depletion which is becoming 15 an increasingly serious problem (Prasad, 2006). In Fiji, Taveuni soils have been reported to be deficient of many essential plant available nutrients due to intensive cultivation system. The problem of declining soil fertility is threatening taro producers in Fiji, specifically in Taveuni (Duncan, 2010). The physical, biological, and chemical characteristics of a soil such as its organic matter content, acidity, texture, depth, and water-retention capacity all influence fertility (Gruhn et al., 2000). According to Bationo and Mokwunye(1991); Bado et al.(1997) and Bationo (2008), continuous cropping soil with inadequate application of fertilisers and soil amendments have weak soil buffering capacity due to low soil organic carbon (SOC) and clay content, low cation exchange capacity (CEC) and P deficiency are the main limiting factors to agricultural productivity of the upland soils of West Africa. Data from many long-term experiments in upland soils show yield declines over time as a consequence of a decrease in SOC, soil acidification and a decrease of nutrient use efficiency. The quality of soil is essential in determining the sustainability and yield of the above ground components (Doran et al., 1994). When crop residues are removed from the intensively cultivated fields, organic matter is significantly reduced leading to declining yields (Minten and Ralison, 2003). Soil degradation is not a new problem and many of the ancient cultures broke down and disintegrated because of soil degradation problems such as erosion and salinisation (Hillel, 1991).According to Lal (1997), degradation occurs when soil cannot perform one of the several principal functions: 1. Sustain biomass production and biodiversity including preservation and enhancement of the gene pool. 2. Regulate water and air quality by filtering, buffering, detoxification and regulate geo chemical cycles. 3. Support socio-economic structure, culture and aesthetic values and provide engineering foundation. 16 Soil degradation is the loss of actual or potential productivity and utility, and it implies a decline in the soil’s inherent capacity to produce economic goods and perform environmental regulatory functions (Lal, 1997). Soil degradation is not the same as land degradation, which embraces the degradation of the overall capacity of the land to produce economic goods and to perform environment regulating functions. Soil erosion, salinisation, acidification and nutrient depletion are some important forms of soil degradation. In addition, degraded soils become either acidic or saline. Leaching of bases by percolating water causes soil acidity (Fenton, 2003). In addition, extended use of most ammonia-based fertilisers will also lower soil pH (Lal, 1997). According to Hartemink (2003), some of the guidelines that can be used in assessing soil degradation are: 1. Clear signs of soil degradation that can be observed in the field. These could be erosion, slaking of the soil surface, salt accumulation at the surface or compacted and dense soil layers. 2. Trends in soil properties like declining pH, N, P, K and other nutrients. 3. Trends in crop yields. 2.6 Soil fertility degradation in relation to land use and land cover change Land use and land cover change play a crucial role in soil fertility dynamics when compared to natural factors, and can have impact upon soil quality particularly under tropical conditions. The majority of land cover changes are related to agricultural use of the land, including pastures. Agricultural activities change the soil chemical, physical, or biological properties. Such activities include cultivation (mechanised or by hand), tillage, weeding, terracing, sub-soiling, deep ploughing, manure, compost and fertiliser applications, liming, draining, irrigation, and imploding (Bridges and de Bakker, 1997) but also biocide applications on cultivated crops may affect soil properties. Many degraded soils have been improved since people started cultivation and soil improvements program continue to enhance the knowledge of farmers through training and awareness programme in many agricultural areas. Adequate levels of agro-inputs are applied when needed by the crops, losses are minimised and environmental awareness 17 and legislation have created agricultural practices that are ecologically and economically more sustainable and profitable. Most of the concerns about soil degradation are justifiable, however, lack of hard data on the severity, extent and impact are little which makes soil degradation a debated issue – particularly in tropical regions (Hartemink, 2006). A major factor in soil degradation is the soil chemical fertility and then in particular its decline as a result of the lack of nutrient inputs. This has been a major concern since sedentary agriculture started and is the main reason why farmers clear more land when farming in forested areas: the soil is depleted of plant nutrients (FAO- Staff, 1957; Nye and Greenland, 1960). Since the late 1980s, declining soil fertility has been recognised as an important cause for low agricultural production in tropical regions (Pieri, 1989; Stoorvogel and Smaling, 1990; van der Pol, 1992; Henao and Baanante, 1999; Sanchez, 2002). Deforestation is a drastic land cover change and the clearing and burning of the natural forest has a large impact on soils (Lal, 1986). All deforestation studies found considerable changes in soil physical and chemical properties (Sanchez and Salinas, 1981; Lal, 1986; Ghuman and Lal, 1991; Veldkamp, 1994; Juo and Manu, 1996). Most studies indicate that the abrupt transition from natural climax vegetation to a managed system by man has several short-term effects on soil properties. The most important onsite effect is the loss of organic matter causing a reduction in nutrient reserve, CEC, and structure stability. The increase in soil organic C oxidation is due to higher soil surface temperatures in arable soils as compared to soils under forests. Another effect that occurs in deforested sloping areas is erosion (Lal, 1986). This is often mentioned as the main cause of soil degradation (Willet, 1994). Burning of biomass and debris reduces N and S stocks, while deforestation with heavy machinery may cause soil compaction and erosion (Dias and Nortcliff, 1985; Hulugalle, 1994). Compaction effects are particularly severe on volcanic ash soils (Andosols) (Spaans et al., 1989). A sharp decline in soil organic C and increase in bulk densities in Ultisols was found under various cropping systems up to 4 years after deforestation (Ghuman et al., 1991; 18 Ghuman and Lal, 1991). Conversion from forest to pasture or new forest has smaller dramatic effects on soil organic C and bulk density compared to conversion from forest to cropland (Veldkamp, 1994). A decline in soil organic C (corrected for compaction) was found followed by a stabilisation after 5 years. The original forest soil organic C continued to decline up to 20 years after deforestation. The conversion of forest to perennial crops usually results in lower levels in the rates soil fertility decline because – to some extent - these systems mimic the forest cover (Hartemink, 2005b). Nonetheless, both erosion and soil chemical changes can be significant in the early stages of crop development when the canopy is not closed and the soil not covered. Soil erosion as well as leaching (both leading to a decline in soil fertility) can be high due to the lack of nutrient uptake and soil exposure to the weather. 2.7 Soil fertility trends under different landuses A case study in Zunhua County, northern China from 1980 to 1999 indicated that the areas of farmland, grassland, and paddy decreased and were replaced by forest and residential land. Soils under forest in 1999 transformed from farmland in 1980 increased in organic matter by 21%, total N by 18%, available N by 65%, available P by 17% and available K by 17%. Similarly, in the area which was converted from farmland in 1980 to grassland in 1999, soil organic matter, total N, available N, available P, and available K all increased. Changes from farmland to forest and grassland not only changed land cover but also improved soil fertility (Fu et al., 2001).A long-term (14 year period) trend in soil fertility was established in New Zealand on pasture lands of different soil groups and regions. The study revealed that Olsen P values were, on average, higher on dairy farms than sheep/beef farms and significantly lower on sedimentary soils than other soils(Wheeler et al., 2004), and this is attributable to continuous fertilisation of pastures with P fertiliser which in deficient in many New Zealand soils. Soil test values for pH, Ca and K were relatively constant over time while Mg level decreased constantly under different land use and regions (Wheeler et al., 2004).The nature of trends of soil quality indices under different land use, soil types and region principally depends on amount and type of fertiliser applications. 19 A technical report titled “Soil quality monitoring in the Waikato region 2011” was published in Waikato, New Zealand in 2013, reported that soil quality indicators vary with land use over time. Soil pH levels were, significantly higher at sites under annual cropping systems, than at sites under dairy pastures. Sites under native (forest) and forestry had significantly higher pH levels (Taylor, 2013). Total C concentration were, on average, significantly lower at sites under annual cropping than at sites under native, forestry, horticulture and dairy pasture, indicating loss of soil organic matter(Taylor, 2013). Soil management practices such as reduced tillage and increased return of plant materials, to mention a few, is the way forward to address the carbon problems in the soil under any land use system (Dick & Gregorich, 2004). Total nitrogen concentrations were significantly lower at sites under annual cropping than sites under different land use practices (Taylor, 2013).Soils with lower soil organic matter have a lesser ability to hold on nitrogen. Olsen P measurements were significantly higher at sites under annual cropping systems compared those of other landuse practices. The report also revealed that extreme levels of Olsen P were found in some production sites due to high rate of phosphate fertiliser application. Soils with extreme Olsen P concentration have high risk of phosphorus being leached to ground or transported to surface water (McDowell, 2001).Similar study was conducted by Eni et al.(2010) in Calabar South farmland, Nigeria, estimated annual depletions of soil fertility at 32 kg nitrogen, 5kg phosphorus and 18kg potassium per hectare of land degraded. In 2002 about 85% of cultivated land had nutrient mining rates at more than 30 kg nutrients (NPK)/hectare yearly and 40% had rates greater than 60 kg/ha yearly. Long term data obtained from the field indicates that intensive farming can cause yield reductions of 60% and more in some parts of Calabar South environments. Even under best variety selections and management practices, yields are stagnated (Eni et al., 2010). Report published in 2014 by Environmental Monitoring and Investigations staff of Greater Wellington Regional Council (Greater Wellington) revealed that most soil macro-nutrients vary with land-use, management practices and soil types. Overall, there were significant changes in most soil quality indicators under dairy farm between 2000 and 2009. The most significant changes were an increase in nutrients, both total nitrogen 20 and Olsen P, macroporosity and cadmium but no significant trends were evident in bulk density or soil pH values across the three sampling events (Drewry, 2014). 2.8 Soil fertility decline and spatial and temporal boundaries Growing agricultural crops implies that nutrients are removed from the soil through agricultural produce and crop residues. Nutrient removal may result in a decline of the soil fertility if not replenished with fertilisers (organic or inorganic) adequately. Soil fertility decline is defined as the decline in chemical soil fertility, or decreases in the level of soil organic carbon, CEC, pH and plant nutrients. Soil fertility decline thus includes nutrient depletion, nutrient mining, acidification, the loss of soil organic matter and an increase in toxic elements (e.g. Al, Mn) (SSSA, 1997). To assess soil fertility decline, it is necessary to define the spatial and temporal boundaries of the systems under study. The total amount of nutrient in the soil declines when the output exceeds the input over a given period of time, soil depth, and at a certain location. Spatial and temporal boundaries need to be chosen to ascertain whether the nutrient level declined. A spatial boundary is the plot or paddock, whereas the temporal boundary is the period the plot was cultivated, or the number of growing seasons during which the crop is grown (Hartemink, 2003). When such boundaries are chosen it is easy to differentiate the soil fertility trends. 2.9 Data types to assess soil fertility decline. Soil degradation features such as water erosion and salinisation may be observed and assessed with remote sensing and aerial photograph. Such techniques cannot be used to measure a decline in soil nutrient levels. There are three different data types are used to assess soil changes caused by agriculture production systems: 1. Expert knowledge 2. Nutrient balance 3. Monitoring of soil chemical properties over time (Type I) or at different sites (Type II) 21 Some of these data can be relatively easy to collect where as other require long-term commitment and are costly to collect (Hartemink, 1996). 2.9.1 Expert knowledge The use of qualitative measurement of soil properties, such as soil colour and field texture and soil mapping is regarded as expert knowledge. Farmers and other users of the land have expert knowledge about their soils. The knowledge has been largely ignored by soil science (Silitoe, 1998; Warkentin, 1999; WinklerPrins, 1999). A farmer has empirical knowledge of his soils, which is not soil process but yield or management oriented (Bouma, 1993). Yield decline as observed could, however, due to variety of factors including soil fertility decline, adverse weather conditions, soil physical deterioration or a combination of factors. 2.9.2 Type I Data Soil dynamics can be monitored over time at the same site, which is called chronosequential sampling (Tan, 1996) or type I data (Sanchez et al., 1985). This type of data shows changes in a soil chemical property under a particular type of land use over time. The original level is taken as the reference level to investigate the trends in changes. Data from the previously analysed samples can be compared with the newly collected and analysed samples. Type I data have been used to quantifying soil degradation by comparing soil samples collected before the intensive agricultural period with the recent samples taken from the same location (Lapenis et al., 2000). These data are also useful in assessing the sustainability of land management practices in the tropics (Greenland, 1994b). 2.9.3 Type II Data The second approach, soils under adjacent different land use systems are sampled at the same time and compared. This is called bio-sequential sampling (Tan, 1996). Moreover, Type II data allows spatial and temporal change while Type I data allows only temporal change analysis. The main underlying assumption is that the soils of the cultivated and 22 uncultivated lands are the same soil series, but the differences in soil properties can be attributed to the differences in land use. 2.9.4 Semi-quantitative A third way of studying soil fertility decline embraces a semi-quantitative approach, which operates at a much coarser (smaller) scale. Existing soil data are combined with pedo-transfer functions into GIS to estimate the decline in soil fertility at a given location. Data of this nature with expert knowledge is ideal for modelling studies (Hartemink, 2003). 2.10 Minimum dataset Most data in the soil fertility decline studies were collected to supplement other agronomic investigations in long term studies. Soil organic matter is one of the essential components of soil fertility (Woomer et al., 1994), and a decline in its content must be regarded as important factor affecting the productivity of the soil. Gregorich et al. (1994) considered assessment of soil organic matter as a valuable step towards identifying the overall quality of a soil. Soil pH, and together with other soil nutrients such as total N, mineral nitrogen, available and total P, exchangeable K, Ca, and Mg. These are important soil chemical properties that should be included in the minimum data-set (Gregorich et al., 1994). The principal advantages of long-term experiments according to Jenkinson (1991) are that they: x Have continuous roles as living demonstrations for farmers and academics of the effects of organic and inorganic manures; x Enable the monitoring of trends in slow changing factors such as soil pH and other soil fertility indices; x Provide data for long-term studies of the relationship between crop yield and meteorological variables; x Provide data on the effects of atmospheric pollution; and, x Can be used to validate computer simulation of field processes over time. 23 Furthermore, conducting long-term experiments is to document changing environmental influences and system states before they become lost to the historical records (Pickett, 1991).Long- term experiments (LTE) provide the most convincing set of data as they highlight trends and dynamics rather than the static snapshots of most other measures(Southwood, 1994). LTEs serve as living laboratories providing opportunities for experimentation in which the effects of manipulation may be separated from other variables (Southwood, 1994). The increasing importance accorded to the development of sustainable management practices for tropical landuse systems and the apprehension of the potential impact of global climatic and environmental change has raised new interest in the datasets from these experiments as well as the possibilities for new initiatives in long-term monitoring and experimentation (Swift et al., 1994). 24 CHAPTER 3 MATERIALS AND METHODS 3.1 Scope of study The fieldwork for this research was carried out on the island of Taveuni, located in the north eastern Fiji group (Fig. 3.1) Figure 3.1 3.2 Location of the study area. (Source: Wikipedia, 2007) Origin of Taveuni The island of Taveuni is an elongated shield volcano and its peak, Mount Uluigalau reaches 1,241 meters above sea level. Volcanism on Taveuni began circa 780,000 years ago, but most volcanic activity took place during the Holocene Epoch, which started about 11,000 years ago (Wikipedia, 2007). Since 9500 B.C., 167 volcanic vents have formed, mainly along the southern inland tip. The youngest vent formed sometime between 4690 and 4900 B.C. Eruptions occurred at an interval of about 70 years, but since 1200 B.C., there have been six periods of time with frequent eruptions, each spanning between 200 and 400 years (Wikipedia, 2007). 25 3.3 Soil sampling sites For ease of data collection, the area under investigation, that is, the whole island of Taveuni, was divided into three rainfall zones that characterise the island. The three rainfall zones are the dry zone in the north, the intermediate zone and the wet zone towards the southern end of the island. This form of stratification was necessary to assess soil fertility decline as it defines the spatial boundaries of the system under study (Fig. 3.2). The research involved a detailed examination and statistical analyses of archival data from multi-location taro farms from each of the zone (strata) characterising the whole island. A total of three main region shad been identified in each stratum for data collection. However, small villages in the vicinity of the main regions were also included to provide a better representation of the subject area. The site locations under each stratum are given in Table 3.1 below. Table 3.1 Rainfall zone Research sites under each zone stratum Location on the island Site location Mean (village) (mm) annual rainfall Vunivasa Dry Northern end Qeleni 1500 – 2500 Matei Lamini Intermediate Central Welagi 2000 - 3500 Qila Waimaqere Wet Southern end Delaivuna Vuna 26 2500 - 4000 Figure 3.2 Soil sampling sites 27 3.4 Data collection 3.4.1 Soil chemical fertility indices Site-specific information on historical land use change and related management were retrieved from archival sources for the last 22 years. The change in soil fertility for each pre-determined stratum was assessed using chronosequential sampling. Data revealing changes in soil chemical properties under continuous taro cultivation over time were investigated. The original levels for soil chemical fertility indices prior to the commercial cultivation of taro, that is, before 1993, were used as the reference level to investigate any trends in such changes. The same approach was used to quantify the change in soil fertility of the three different zone (strata) representing the three different rainfall zones. Nutrients in the exchangeable and soluble forms are readily plant-available. In this case, topsoil properties were used as an indication of nutrient availability to plants because most taro roots are concentrated in the A horizons (Lilienfien et al., 2003). Soil samples collected over the archival period were from 0-20 cm depth. During the initial years of the inception of taro program in Taveuni, about a total of 400 samples were received with 40%, 30% and 30% from the dry, wet and intermediate zones, respectively. However, as the area under cultivation increased and more intensive cultivation was practised, problematic areas were identified and up to 1000 samples were analysed annually with 34%, 36% and 30% from dry, wet and intermediate zones, respectively. These samples were analysed at Koronivia Research Station for the following determinations: pH (soil:water ratio of 1:5), organic carbon using the Walkley-Black (1934) method, available P by Olsen et al. (1954) described by Blackmore et al.(1987) and exchangeable cations by 1 M NH4OAcextraction at pH 7 (Daly et al., 1984 and Blackmore et al., 1987). The soil samples were collected from the same farms on a yearly basis to monitor the changes in the soil chemical fertility. However, the analysis for soil organic carbon was done only in the initial years of the monitoring and towards the end of the “22- year intensive cultivation period” 28 imposing a severe limitation towards investigating the annual soil carbon stock trends. This monitoring programme was initiated by the Ministry of Agriculture and farmers association in the islands since the inception of commercial taro production under export promotion programme. 3.4.2 Taro production data Taro production data consisting of exportable yield and rejects of the export variety (Tausala) for a period of 20 years were collected from the Ministry of Primary Industry, Taveuni office archival sources to assess the effect of change in soil fertility on the yield of the crop. One of the limitations of the present study was that the nutrient uptake data for “22 year intensive cultivation period” not collected. 3.4.3 Meteorological data Mean monthly and annual rainfall and temperature data for the period of the research, that is, “22 year intensive cultivation period” were retrieved from Fiji Meteorological Office archival sources to assess the effect of climate change on the yield of the crop. 3.4.4 Crop management data The changes in selected management practices over time were recorded through a survey, to assess how attempts have been made to maintain soil fertility under continuous cropping as opposed to shifting cultivation. This survey was conducted using the questionnaires targeting a total of 90 progressive farmers (30 farmers per zone) (Appendix 12). In addition, the inclusion of new management variables, such as fallowing, commencement of fertiliser application and liming resulting from continuous cultivation were also recorded. Results were expressed as percent of total farmers surveyed. 3.5 Statistical Analysis All the data collected were subjected to determine mean differences between the production strata with respect to fertility indicators, meteorological variables and taro yield data. Temporal heterogeneity in soil fertility indices, taro yield and rejects, and 29 meteorological data were carried out for the whole island of Taveuni using regression trends. Correlation analyses were carried out to determine associations between soil fertility and meteorological variables for each production stratum. Regression analyses were carried out to ascertain any significant dependence of taro yield on individual soil fertility and meteorological variables. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to derive a predictive model using indices that were individually significant with the yield. Only coefficients significant were retained in the model. Paired sample t-test was used to compare the differences in the soil fertility variables as well as taro yield between the start and the current levels. All the data were analysed using the Discovery Edition of the Genstat statistical software package (VSN International Ltd., 2011). 30 CHAPTER 4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 4.1 Meteorological parameters 4.1.1 Rainfall The mean overall magnitude of rainfall, its annual seasonal distribution and intra-annual variability for the entire island of Taveuni for the “22 year review period” are given in Figure 4.1 (a) and (b) below. Mean annual rainfall (mm) Mean monthly rainfall (mm) 4000 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1989 1994 1999 2004 Month Year (a) (b) 2009 2014 Figure 4.1 (a) Rainfall pattern; and, (b) 22 year mean annual seasonal distribution for the island of Taveuni The rainfall pattern given above has been very similar for the entire three production zone with a mean annual range of 2,500-4,000 mm for the wet zone; 2,000-3,500 for the intermediate zone; and, 1,500-2,500 for dry zone (Met. Fiji, 2014).By decomposing the mean annual rainfall seasonality for the “22 year period” into its magnitude and timing components, the intra-annual variability of seasonality over the island of Taveuni was ascertained. This revealed a unimodal wet peak during the month of January and a relatively weak drier season during the months of June and July. 31 4.1.2 Temperature The mean overall annual and monthly temperature and intra-annual variability for the entire island of Taveuni for the “22 year review period" is given in Figure 4.2 (a) and (b) below. 28 Mean annual temperature (oC) 26.6 Mean monthly temp. (oC) 26.8 Y = 0.0023x2 - 9.1131x + 9116.1 R² = 0.4149 26.4 26.2 26 25.8 27 26 25 24 25.6 23 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 Month Year (a) Figure 4.2 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 25.4 1989 (b) (a) Mean annual; and, (b) 22 year monthly mean temperature for the island of Taveuni The mean annual and monthly temperature given above has been very similar for all the three production strata. Trend analysis revealed a significant increase (P=0.004) in the mean annual temperature during the “22 year review period”. By decomposing the mean annual temperature for the 22 year period into its magnitude and timing components, the intra-annual variability for the island of Taveuni was ascertained. This revealed a unimodal peak (hot season) during the month of March and a cool dry season during the months of July and August. 32 4.2 Soil chemical indices 4.2.1 Soil pH The mean soil pH trends for the three taro production strata and the general trend for the entire island of Taveuni for the 22 year review period is given in Figure 4.3 (a) and (b) below. 6.5 6.5 Y = 0.0011x2 - 4.4439x + 4464.8 6 Soil pH Soil pH R² = 0.2514 5.5 5 1989 1994 Dry 6 5.5 5 1989 2014 1999 2004 2009 Year Wet Intermediate (a) 1994 1999 2004 Year 2009 2014 (b) Figure 4.3 (a) Soil pH trends for the three taro production strata; (b) 22 year mean trend for Taveuni Trend analysis revealed a significant decline (R2=0.25; P<0.01) in the mean soil pH for all the three production strata over the 22 year review period. The initial decline can be attributed to the commencement of intensive cultivation of the newly cleared forest sites while the latter fluctuations tend to reflect the use of chemical fertilisers for the taro crop, and application of agricultural lime during the alternating fallow periods. The survey data reveals that 100% of the farmers from all the strata did not carry out any application of fertiliser or lime until year 2000, depending entirely on the natural levels of soil fertility. However, nearly 90% of the total farmers surveyed depended on fertiliser and lime applications to sustain yields thereafter. Liming did not result in an apparent trend of increasing soil pH as any increase in soil pH could have been counterbalanced by heavy application of mineral fertilisers, particularly urea and blended complete fertilisers. Another reason could have been the low rates of spot application of lime due to the predisposing economic climate that the farmers work 33 within. Furthermore, high rainfall could also have been the contributing factor for inefficiency of lime in correcting the soil pH, as leaching losses tend to be higher with high rainfall. There were significant differences in soil pH (P=0.014) between the three production strata with the drier strata having lower pH than the intermediate and the wet strata. This acidification can be partially attributed to the more intense and comparatively earlier use of nitrogenous fertilisers in the dry strata to obtain optimum yields following the depletion of native organic matter levels. Longu and Dynoodt (2008) reported that long-term annual applications of urea resulted in significant increase in soil acidification and decreased exchangeable bases in soil. Adams (1984) confirms that the acidity produced by 1 kg N in urea is 71g H+, which is equivalent to about 3.6 kg CaCO3. 4.2.2 Total soil nitrogen The mean total soil nitrogen (%) trends for the three strata and the general trend for the entire island of Taveuni for the 22 year review period are given in Figure 4.4 (a) and (b) below. 0.9 0.7 % Total N Total N (%) 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 1989 1994 Dry 1999 2004 Year Wet 2009 2014 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 1989 Y = 0.002x2 - 7.8318x + 7841.5 R² = 0.4711 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 Year Intermediate (a) (b) Figure 4.4 (a) Total N trends for the three taro production strata; (b) 22 year mean trend for Taveuni 34 Trend analysis revealed a significant decline (R2=0.47; P<0.01) in the mean total N for all the three production strata over the 22 year review period. The initial decline can be attributed to the decline in the native reserves of organic matter following commencement of intensive cultivation of the newly cleared forest sites while the latter increase tends to reflect the use of chemical fertilisers for the taro crop, and application of agricultural lime during the alternating fallow periods resulting in more plant biomass that gets returned as organic matter to the soil. Significant differences (P=0.013) in total soil N were found to exist between the three production strata with the wet and the intermediate zone having higher total N than the dry zone. This can be attributed to the differences in the native and fallow biomass production and subsequent biomass additions to the soil ecosystems and is a strict function of rainfall. In intensive cropping systems, where a non-tillage system is adopted, depletion or loss of organic matter has been reported (Johnson et al., 2006), which may result in N deficiency. 4.2.3 Olsen available phosphorus The mean Olsen available phosphorus (mg/kg) trends for the three taro production strata and the general trend for the entire island of Taveuni for the 22 year review period are 70 70 60 60 Olsen Available P (mg/kg) Olsen available P (mg/kg) given in Figure 4.5 (a) and (b) below. 50 40 30 20 10 0 1989 1994 Dry 1999 2004 2009 Year Wet Intermediate 2014 (a) 50 Y = 0.1512x2 - 606.63x + 608539 R² = 0.8104 40 30 20 10 0 1989 1994 1999 2004 Year 2009 (b) Figure 4.5 (a) Olsen P trends for the three taro production strata; (b) 22 year mean trend for Taveuni 35 2014 Trend analysis revealed a significant decline (R2=0.81; P<0.01) in the mean levels of Olsen available P for all the three production strata over the 22 year review period. The sharp initial decline can be attributed to the effect of continuous cultivation that aggravates organic matter oxidation. In addition, it may have resulted from the decline in soil pH leading to accelerated fixation of soil P. Taveuni soils, being of volcanic origin, have a high tendency to fix soil P and this could be the reason for poor response of the soils towards P fertilisation and liming during latter years of cultivation. Fageria et al. (2004) reported that most of the acidic soils have very low levels of native fertility, especially in terms of phosphorus. Holfords (1977) reported that when P fertilisers are applied to replenish soil fertility, about 70-90% of the P fertiliser is adsorbed and becomes locked in various soil P compounds of low solubility. There were significant differences in Olsen P (P<0.001) between the three production strata with the drier and the intermediate zone having lower P levels than the wet zone. This can be linked to differences in the quantity of biomass production between the three zone as well the heavy use of blended fertiliser in the wet zone. 4.2.4 Exchangeable K The mean exchangeable K (cmol(+)/kg) trends for the three taro production strata and the general trend for the entire island of Taveuni for the 22 year review period are given Exchangeable K (cmol(+)/kg) 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1989 1994 Dry 1999 2004 2009 2014 Year Wet Intermediate (a) Exchangeable K (cmol(+)/kg) in Figure 4.6 (a) and (b) below. 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 Y= 0.0038x - 7.1914 R² = 0.0578 0.1 0 1989 1994 1999 2004 Year 2009 (b) Figure 4.6 (a) Exchangeable K trends for the three strata; (b) 22 year mean trend for Taveuni 36 2014 There were no significant differences (P=0.255) in the exchangeable K levels between the three production zone. In China, the increase in total K and available K could be explained by unbalanced fertilisation strategy in the area, which was commonly practiced by the farmers (Niu et al.,2011). Niu et al. (2011) further stated that according to farmers’ opinion, the more K fertilisers were used, the higher yields could be achieved, but this could also result in strong K accumulation in the soils. 4.2.5 Exchangeable Ca The mean exchangeable Ca (cmol(+)/kg) trends for the three taro production zone and the general trend for Taveuni for the 22 year review period are given in Figure 4.7 (a) 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 1989 1994 Dry 1999 2004 2009 2014 Year Wet Intermediate Exchangeable Ca (cmol(+)/kg) Exchangeable Ca (cmol (+)/kg) and (b) below. (a) 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1989 Y = -0.223x + 456.16 R² = 0.4071 1994 1999 2004 Year 2009 2014 (b) Figure 4.7 (a) Exchangeable Ca trends for the three zone; (b) 22 year mean trend for Taveuni Trend analysis revealed a strong significant decline (R2=0.41; P<0.01) in the mean levels of exchangeable Ca for the entire three production zone over the 22 year review period. The initial decline can be attributed to the decline in the native reserves of organic matter and accelerated leaching of the Ca following continuous cultivation of the newly cleared forest sites with no external inputs, while the latter fluctuations tend to reflect the application of agricultural lime by some farmers during the alternating fallow periods (See Section 4.7). There were no significant differences (P=0.915) in the exchangeable Ca levels among the three production zone. Horsley et al. (2000) reported 37 similar trends about the depletion of available soil calcium (Ca) due to nutrient removals by forest harvesting and leaching induced by acid deposition and aluminium (Al) mobilisation in acidified soils. This has led to a heightened interest in the role of base cations, such as Ca, in forest health and productivity. 4.2.6 Exchangeable Mg The mean exchangeable Mg (cmol(+)/kg) trends for the three taro production zone and the general trend for the entire island of Taveuni for the 22 year review period are given 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1989 Exchangeable Mg (cmol(+)/kg) Exchangeable Mg (cmol(+)/kg) in Figure 4.8 (a) and (b) below. 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 Year Dry Wet 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1989 Y = -0.1592x + 323.74 R² = 0.5149 1994 1999 2004 Year 2009 Intermediate (a) (b) Figure 4.8 (a) Exchangeable Mg trends for the three taro production strata; (b) 22 year mean trend for Taveuni Trend analysis revealed a strong significant decline (R2=0.51; P<0.001) in the mean levels of exchangeable Mg for the entire three production zone over the 22 year review period. The declining trend can be attributed to crop uptake and accelerated leaching of Mg following continuous cultivation of the newly cleared forest sites with no external inputs, as well as leaching loss, before any lime application occurred. The agricultural lime applied was mainly in the form of calcium carbonate, not Mg-containing dolomitic limestone, so is not expected to raise Mg levels. Also, displacement of exchangeable Mg by Ca in lime may lead to higher Mg leaching. There were no significant differences 38 2014 (P=0.626) in the exchangeable Mg levels among the three production zone. Similar results were reported by Adejuwon and Ekanade (1975) who reported that decline in exchangeable Mg levels could be attributed to organic matter diminution and some may be washed off by surface erosion following the exposure of forest cover. 4.2.7 Ca: Mg Ratio The mean Ca: Mg trends for the three taro production zone and the general trend for the entire island of Taveuni for the 22 year review period are given in Figure 4.9 (a), (b) and (c) below. Analysis of Ca: Mg ratio revealed that exchangeable Mg is approximately equal to 40% of corresponding exchangeable Ca (Fig. 4.9c). 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 1990 1995 Dry 0 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 Wet Intermediate Y = 0.0195x - 37.056 R² = 0.0593 1995 2000 Exchangeable Mg (a) 2005 2010 (b) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Y = 0.3913x + 1.2325 R² = 0.3797 0 2 4 6 8 10 Exchangeable Ca 12 14 16 (c) Figure 4.9(a) Ca: Mg trends for the three taro production zone; (b) 22 year mean trend for Taveuni (c) Removal of Mg relative to Ca 39 2015 4.3 Taro production and export rejects 4.3.1 Taro yields The mean taro yield (t/ha) trends for the three production zone and the general trend for the entire island of Taveuni for the 20 year review period are given in Figure 4.10 (a) and (b) below. 40 30 35 Corm yield (t/ha) Corm yield (t/ha) 36 24 18 12 6 0 1993 Y = 0.1121x2 - 450.54x + 452848 R² = 0.9292 30 25 20 15 10 5 1998 Dry 2003 Year Wet 2008 0 1993 2013 Intermediate (a) 1998 2003 Year 2008 2013 (b) Figure 4.10 (a) Taro yield (t/ha) trends for the three taro production strata; (b) 20 year mean trend for Taveuni Trend analysis revealed a strong significant decline (R2=0.93; P<0.01) in the mean yield of taro for the entire three production zone over the 20 year review period. This decline in yields can be attributed to the interactive response of the deterioration of soil chemical, biological and physical properties, resulting from continuous monocropping, coupled with shorter fallow durations, inadequate to rejuvenate the soils to native levels of fertility. This has been evident from the trend analysis of soil pH as well as all the macro nutrients, which all significantly declined over the 20 year review period with the exception of K. In addition, rapid depletion of soil organic matter can also be regarded as a major contributing factor for the sharp decline in taro yields. The three production zone did not significantly differ (P=0.823) with regards to the decline in yields. 40 4.3.2 Taro export rejects The mean taro export rejects (%) trends for the three rainfall zones and the general trend for the entire island of Taveuni for the 20 year review period are given in Figure 4.11 (a) 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1993 % Rejects % Taro rejects and (b) below. 1998 Dry 2003 Year Wet 2008 2013 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1993 Y = 0.241x2 - 964.9x + 965788 R² = 0.6783 1998 2003 Year 2008 Intermediate (a) (b) Figure 4.11 (a) Taro export rejects (%) trends for the three taro production strata; (b) 20 year mean trend for Taveuni The general 20 year trend for the export rejects of taro from the island of Taveuni followed a highly significant quadratic relationship (R2=0.68; P<0.001) with higher percentages of rejects towards the start and the end of the research period. The higher proportion of rejects towards the beginning of commercial production was largely due to over-sized and overweight corms which did not meet the export weight requirements of between 1 to 3 kg per corm (Appendix 2). This was indicative of a very fertile soil. However, upon continuous cultivation and subsequent fertility depletion, the corm size and weight gradually decreased and most of the corms produced satisfied the export guidelines, thus rejects were low. As time progressed and soil fertility further depleted, the mean corm size produced significantly became smaller and underweight to an extent whereby they did not meet the export standards. This was coupled with the significant infestation of taro by two pests’ namely mealy bugs and plant parasitic nematodes, which were earlier kept under control by relatively higher levels of organic matter. Pest 41 2013 infestation and reduced soil fertility also lead to corm deformities. All these factors resulted in comparatively higher levels of rejects after 20 years of continuous cropping. There were significant differences in percentage export rejects (P=0.04) between the three production zone with the drier zone having higher rejects than the wet and the intermediate zone. This can be partially explained by a weak but seasonally pronounced dry period which causes physical corm deformities. 4.4 Correlation analyses between the selected meteorological, taro yields and soil chemical indices The correlation matrices for the three individual production strata are presented in Table 4.1 (a), (b) and (c) below. Associations between variables differed between the three rainfall zones. 4.4.1 Dry zone The mean yield of taro showed significant positive associations with mean levels of Olsen available P (P<0.01), exchangeable Ca (P<0.05) and exchangeable Mg (P<0.05) (Table 4.1a). Mean daily temperature showed significant negative associations with mean levels of exchangeable Ca and Mg (P<0.05). Soil pH was positively correlated with mean levels of exchangeable Ca (P<0.05) and Mg (P<0.01). Total soil N showed significant association with all the other macronutrients in the dry zone: Olsen available P (P<0.05); exchangeable K (P<0.05); exchangeable Ca (P<0.05) and exchangeable Mg (P<0.01). Exchangeable Mg showed significant association with Olsen available P (P<0.05) and a highly significant association with exchangeable Ca (P<0.01). 42 Table 4.1(a) Correlation matrix of selected meteorological and soil chemical indices of taro soils from the dry zone of Taveuni Yield Rainfall Yield Rainfall Temp. pH N P K Ca Mg 1.0 0.13 -0.56* 0.43 0.40 0.76** -0.14 0.51* 0.69** 1.0 -0.09 0.02 0.35 0.18 -0.03 -0.18 0.25 1.0 -0.28 -0.24 -0.33 0.25 -0.54* -0.56* 1.0 0.34 0.23 0.01 0.47* 0.70** 1.0 0.54* 0.49* 0.49* 0.61** 1.0 0.01 0.38 0.52* 1.0 0.37 0.07 1.0 0.69** Temp. pH N P K Ca 1.0 Mg * Significant at the <0.05, **<0.01, and ***<0.001 levels. 4.4.2 Intermediate Zone The yield of taro positively correlated with exchangeable Ca (P<0.05) and highly correlated with Olsen available P and exchangeable Mg (P<0.01). However, mean daily temperature and exchangeable K correlated negatively with taro yield (P<0.05) (Table 4.1b). Annual rainfall correlated negatively with soil pH (P<0.05), while positively with total soil N (P<0.05). Mean daily temperature significantly correlated negatively with soil pH (P<0.05), Olsen available P (P<0.05) and exchangeable Mg (P<0.01). Soil pH showed significant positive associations with Olsen available P and exchangeable Mg (P<0.05). Olsen available P correlated positively with exchangeable Ca (P<0.05) and exchangeable Mg (P<0.01). Exchangeable K showed a significant negative association with exchangeable Ca (P<0.05). 43 Table 4.1(b) Correlation matrix of selected meteorological, taro yields and soil chemical indices of taro soils from the intermediate zone of Taveuni Yield Yield Rainfall Temp. pH N P K Ca Mg 1.0 0.05 -0.54* 0.41 -0.03 0.71** -0.50* 0.46* 0.59** 1.0 -0.03 -0.46* 0.46* -0.20 -0.32 0.09 0.10 1.0 -0.48* 0.33 -0.54* 0.27 -0.35 -0.72** 1.0 -0.28 0.49* -0.22 0.38 0.49* 1.0 0.03 -0.39 -0.10 -0.09 1.0 -0.23 0.44* 0.59** 1.0 -0.51* -0.27 1.0 0.26 Rainfall Temp. pH N P K Ca 1.0 Mg * Significant at the <0.05, **<0.01, and ***<0.001 levels. 4.4.3 Wet zone The yield of taro highly positively correlated with Olsen available P (P<0.001), exchangeable Ca (P<0.01) and exchangeable Mg (P<0.01). However, mean daily temperature correlated negatively with taro yield (P<0.05) (Table 4.1c). Mean daily temperature correlated negatively with Olsen available P and exchangeable K (P<0.05). Soil pH showed significant associations with available P (P<0.05) and exchangeable Ca and Mg (P<0.01). Olsen available P highly correlated with exchangeable Ca and Mg (P<0.01). Exchangeable Ca and Mg showed strong association (P<0.01). 44 Table 4.1(c) Correlation matrix of selected meteorological, taro yields and soil chemical indices of taro soils from the wet zone of Taveuni Yield Rainfall Temp. pH Yield Rainfall Temp. pH N P K Ca Mg 1.0 0.09 -0.53* 0.33 0.27 0.88*** 0.24 0.63** 0.66** 1.0 -0.09 0.12 0.37 -0.03 0.36 -0.12 0.00 1.0 -0.14 0.05 -0.52* -0.47* -0.22 -0.27 1.0 0.44 0.53* 0.09 0.59** 0.64** 1.0 0.39 0.15 -0.04 0.15 1.0 0.31 0.65** 0.64** 1.0 0.08 0.17 1.0 0.65** N P K Ca 1.0 Mg * Significant at the <0.05, **<0.01, and ***<0.001 levels. 45 Relationship of selected chemical indices to taro corm yield 5.8 6.0 (d) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 4 Y = 2.3135x - 4.1593 R² = 0.2734 9 14 Exchangeable Ca (cmol (+)/kg) (e) Total N (%) 1 Y = 16.039x + 9.1655 R² = 0.0388 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 (b) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2 0 Y = 1.1229x + 5.32 R² = 0.5814 (f) (d) Exchangeable K (cmol(+)/kg); (e) Exchangeable Ca (cmol(+)/kg); and, (f) Exchangeable Mg (cmol(+)/kg). 46 40 8 Y = 4.8925x - 5.5472 R² = 0.4057 10 20 30 Olsen available P (mg/kg) (c) 4 6 Exchangeable Mg (cmol (+)/Kg) Regression of taro yield on (a) soil pH; (b) Total N (%); (c) Olsen available P (mg/kg); 0.7 Y= -14.605x + 23.453 R² = 0.0259 6.2 Y = 18.718x - 88.731 R² = 0.1111 Soil pH (H2O) 5.6 (a) 0.3 0.5 Exchangeable K (cmol (+)/kg) 5.4 Figure 4.12 0.1 5.2 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 The relationship between individual chemical indices and the yield if taros are given in Figure 4.12 (a-f) below. 4.5 Taro corm yield (t/ha) Taro corm yield (t/ha) The linear regression analysis of yield data of taro against the individual soil chemical indices for the 20 year review period (Figure 4.12 a-f) revealed significant dependence of yield on soil pH (R2=0.11; P<0.011); Olsen available P (R2=0.58; P<0.001); exchangeable Ca (R2=0.27; P<0.001); and, exchangeable Mg (R2=0.41; P<0.001). On the contrary, Total N (R2=0.04; P<0.14) and exchangeable K (R2=0.03; P<0.23), did not significantly influence the yield of taro. In general, soil total N is not a good predictor of crop yield as this variable does not reflect N availability to plants. Multiple linear regression analysis was then carried out using only the chemical indices which significantly influenced taro yields, that is, soil pH, Olsen available P, exchangeable Ca and Mg. This showed a highly significant overall relationship (R2=0.65, P<0.001) between the yield and the interactive response of the four parameters. However, the estimation of parameters revealed that only Olsen available P and exchangeable Mg had a significant effect in predicting the yield of taro as outlined in Table 2 below: Table 4.2 Estimates of parameters for multiple linear regression analysis Parameter Estimate S.E. t-value (df=52) P – value Constant 36.9 28.7 1.29 0.204 Ca 0.639 0.424 1.51 0.138 Mg 2.395 0.814 2.94 0.005 P 0.868 0.147 5.91 <0.001 pH -8.13 5.33 -1.52 0.133 47 It can therefore, be said that the yield of taro can reasonably be estimated using the following predictor equation based on soil chemical indices: Y= 36.9 + 0.868 (Olsen P) + 2.395 (Exchangeable Mg) N=20; R2=0.65; P< 0.001 4.6 Comparison of soil chemical properties between pre and post 22 year cultivation period Comparison of soil chemical indices between the pre and post 22 year intensive cultivation period using paired sample t-test revealed highly significant reduction in levels of soil organic carbon (P<0.001), Olsen P (P<0.001), exchangeable Ca (P=0.005) and Mg (P=0.003) (Table 4.3a). This can be attributed to depletion of the natural levels of these nutrient elements following forest clearing and subsequent cropping. Although P supplementation were made through use of complete chemical fertilisers, most of these inorganic P has been rendered unavailable for plants largely due to fixation, a most common limiting characteristic of many soils. Ca and Mg supplementation through liming were also made over the review period, particularly during the latter stages, but was most likely counter balanced by leaching and crop removal losses. There were no significant declines in the soil pH (P=0.370), total N (P=0.241) and exchangeable K (P=0.242) over the research period (Table 4.3a). This can be partially explained by organic matter additions during the periodic fallow phases as well as inorganic inputs of N and K. Liming towards the latter stages of the research period partially compensated for the earlier decline in soil pH. The survey data reveals that prior to year 2000; none of the farmers applied any form of fertiliser or liming material and depended entirely on the natural levels of soil fertility. However, nearly 90% of the total farmers surveyed depended on fertiliser and lime applications to sustain yields thereafter. 48 Yield comparison between the pre and post 22 year intensive cultivation period using paired sample t-test revealed a highly significant reduction (P<0.001). This can be attributed to the corresponding decline in soil organic carbon, Olsen P, exchangeable Ca and Mg which all significantly correlated with taro yield. From the multiple regression analysis, it can be deduced that Olsen P and exchangeable Mg may be two of the most limiting nutrient elements for taro soils of Taveuni. Data from the farmer survey conducted in all the zones revealed Olsen P to be the most limiting nutrient across all the zone with 100% of the farms surveyed being below the critical levels for the element (Table 4.3b). Largest proportion of farms having organic C (100%) and total N (63%) below the critical levels were in the dry strata. This can be ascribed to the least biomass production and organic matter addition in the dry strata comparatively. The proportion of farms having exchangeable K levels below the critical range was highest in the wet zone (100%) (Table 4.3b).This can be partially explained by relatively higher leaching losses as well as higher uptake of the nutrient as yield levels were higher for the zone. 49 0.66 -7.13 -4.10 < 0.001 *** 0.16 -0.53 0.22 0.370 ns Standard error of mean difference (Sd) 95% Confidence Interval p-value 0.58 0.44 0.65 0.65 0.80 0.10 0.32 0.44 2012 0.23 0.241 ns -0.49 0.14 0.14 -26.6 0.3-0.6 -0.17 0.28 0.70 0.80 0.56 0.41 1.00 0.67 1.00 1990 0.34 N (%) 50 8.23 5.47 8.71 5.75 6.30 5.80 6.25 6.57 2012 8.77 < 0.001 *** -51.15 -21.75 6.37 -84.1 20-30 -36.45 19.8 22.0 53.0 68.0 64.0 56.3 38.0 46.0 1990 22.8 P (mg/kg) ns – not significant; ** - significant at P < 0.01; *** - significant at P < 0.001 -56.4 4-10 -2.7 -5.6 4.1 Relative % decline/increase 9.2 4.2 3.8 5.1 5.9 5.4 3.5 3.7 2012 3.4 5.3-6.5 5.70 9.8 8.2 9.8 15.4 11.5 10.6 9.4 1990 5.7 Critical range 6.32 Qila 5.30 5.30 6.45 5.90 6.20 5.90 5.50 2012 4.80 OC (%) -0.16 5.70 5.80 Lamini Welagi 5.70 Vuna 6.00 Waimaqere 6.20 5.52 Matei Delaivuna 5.73 1990 5.48 pH (H2O) Qeleni Vunivasa Village 0.09 0.66 0.52 0.26 0.48 0.30 0.27 0.66 0.37 0.242 ns -0.07 0.25 0.07 +22.5 0.5-0.8 0.44 0.48 0.40 0.30 0.16 0.40 0.12 0.33 K (cmol(+)/kg) 1990 2012 0.19 0.11 Soil chemical indicators 6.30 9.90 8.37 3.70 7.89 2.40 5.11 4.60 0.005 ** -8.31 -2.11 1.35 -43.7 5-10 -0.52 6.70 9.80 13.80 2.71 1.94 2.37 2.73 0.003 ** -4.09 -1.15 0.64 -47.0 1-3 -2.62 2.60 6.80 7.40 5.88 2.70 2.59 5.96 2.17 Mg (cmol(+)/kg) 1990 2012 2.60 0.27 18.80 14.62 8.40 17.36 7.90 9.60 12.42 8.28 8.10 Ca (cmol(+)/kg) 1990 2012 10.70 0.98 Paired sample t-test for the chemical indicators between pre and post period of intensive cultivation Mean Difference (d) Intermediate Wet Dry Climatic Zone Table 4.3a 9.1 9.4 9.6 9.1 8.9 10.4 8.4 9.8 < 0.001 *** -25.51 -22.78 0.59 -73.0 12-15 -24.14 33.1 36 36 33.6 31.4 31.5 33.6 33 Taro corm yield (t/ha) 1993 2012 32.9 9.1 Table 4.3b Soil chemical fertility decline resulting from 22 year intensive cultivation Soil Chemical Property pH Total N (%) Olsen P (mg/kg) Exchangeable K (cmol(+)/kg) Organic carbon (%) Exchangeable Ca (cmol(+)/kg) Farms below critical range Critical Range 5.3 – 6.5 0.3 – 0.6 20 - 30 0.5 – 0.8 4 - 10 5 - 10 Exchangeable Mg (cmol(+)/kg) 1-3 Rainfall Zone No. of Percentage of farms farms Dry 8 27 Wet 8 27 Intermediate 14 47 Dry 19 63 Wet 11 37 Intermediate 13 43 Dry 30 100 Wet 30 100 Intermediate 30 100 Dry 20 67 Wet 30 100 Intermediate 20 67 Dry 30 100 Wet 3 10 Intermediate 15 50 Dry 10 33 Wet 4 13 Intermediate 20 67 Dry 10 33 Wet 4 13 Intermediate 7 23 51 5.67 4.34 0.46 Total OC Total N (%) (2012) values Mean Soil pH Parameters Soil 0.3 – 0.6 4-10 5.3 – 6.5 Rangea Critical Table 4.4 52 synthetic N fertilisers and organic matter accumulation through improved leguminous fallow is paramount. (mucuna beans), agro forestry practices and fallowing practices. To maintain total N levels within an ideal range, fertilisers. Some farmers in Taveuni also practices other means of enhancing organic matter such as the use of legumes Mean values for total N for Taveuni soils are within the critical range. This could be due to application of mineral N well as carbon sequestration through use of biochar. leguminous fallow to improve the level of carbon. Perhaps prolong natural fallow may assist alleviating carbon level as which are readily available to the farmers on the island. Avoid burning of plant litter after forest clearing and use could be explored such as use of by-products of fish canning processing plant, seaweed, and shredded coconut husk, practice with high biomass inputs, as adopted by the farmers. To enhance carbon build up, number of organic materials Mean values for total OC for Taveuni soils are within the critical range. This could be due to periodic fallowing be done in consultation with agriculture department. should be applied before every planting cycle. Application rate, type of liming materials and time of application should other organic materials. Thus, to maintain soil pH level within the critical range agricultural lime (preferably dolomitic) Soil pH level of taro soils in Taveuni is within the critical range. This could be attributed to application of lime and Suggested Ameliorative Techniques Comparison of end of research period levels against critical levels and suggested ameliorative measures kg) Mg(cmol(+)/ a 1-3 Blakemore et al. ratings (1987) 2.95 53 continued to maintain the levels. and husbandry practices is important (Fageria and Baligar, 2003b). these, other practices such as crop rotation, adopting conservation tillage, improving organic matter content in the soil of application, incorporating crop residues, supplying adequate moisture and use of farmyard manures. In addition to Liming acid soils with appropriate liming material, applying adequate rate of K fertiliser, appropriate time and method This can be due to greater removal of K relative to N, by root crops. Management practices include the following: Exchangeable K levels were found to be critically low in all taro growing sites, despite mineral K supplementation. of organic P materials is very low therefore, particles should be finely ground and incorporated in the soil. superphosphate. Sole reliance on chemical fertilisers should be reduced as they tend to acidify the soil. The solubility phosphate, Di- ammonium phosphate, mono-ammonium phosphate, NPK 13:13:21, single superphosphate and triple Exchangeable 5 - 10 0.5 – 0.8 20 - 30 Though the Ca and Mg are within the critical range, the practice of liming using dolomitic liming materials should be 6.14 0.40 6.87 dolomtic liming materials before applying mineral or organic P fertilisers. Fertilisers available in Fiji are: Rock (cmol(+)/kg) Ca Exchangeable (cmol(+)/kg) K Exchangeable (mg/kg) available P Olsen Soil available P is critically low for all taro growing sites in Taveuni. It is crucial to correct the soil pH levels with 4.7 Changes in selected soil management practices over 22 year cultivation period The changes in the adoption of selected management practices, namely continuous cultivation, shifting cultivation and application of lime and mineral fertilisers, over time were recorded through surveys, to assess how attempts have been made to maintain soil fertility (Figure 4.13). 100 % farmers 80 60 40 20 0 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 Year continuous cultivation fertiliser application Figure 4.13 shifting cultivation lime application Farmer adoption of various management practices to support intensive taro cultivation Prior to the commencement of commercial taro production in Taveuni (before 1993), almost all the farmers practiced shifting cultivation and continuous cultivation was not necessary as most of the farmers grew taro on a smallholder scale (Fig. 4.13). However, with the introduction of the lucrative taro export markets, shifting cultivation was soon phased out and continuous cultivation practices were adopted to maintain market consistency and take advantage of the rewarding prices that the export markets had to offer, as majority of the farmers were constrained by farm size. As time progressed, 54 significant yield declines were experienced and this system was no longer considered to be sustainable. Farmers at first turned towards the use of chemical fertilisers for a quick fix solution. However, later researches revealed that the soil pH and available P were the most limiting factors for optimum taro productivity. As such, liming was duly recommended and remedial actions were taken by farmers, exploiting various sources of liming materials such as calcitic and dolomitic lime as well as ground coral. However, adoption of the practice of liming never exceeded 32% of the total farmers due to the high cost factor involved and so did not result in significantly raising the pH and exchangeable Ca levels of the soils overall. Therefore, farmers continue to rely heavily on chemical fertilisers alone to date. The application rate of lime is highly variable between and within zone ranging from 300 to 800kg per hectare. The lime application rate varies due to factors like soil pH, rainfall and the soil type in each stratum. Since taro is spot planted in Taveuni with minimum tillage practices, lime is placed in the planting holes during planting. The application rates currently used by farmers are far below the Ministry of Agriculture recommendation of 3- 4 t/ha. Table 4.5a Distribution of land tenure systems for the surveyed farms Land tenure No. farms Freehold 43 (48) Freehold lease 19 (21) Native lease 20 (22) Communal lease 8 (8) *The figures in parenthesis denote percentage of farms surveyed. The farmer survey data revealed that 48% of the surveyed farms in Taveuni - fall under freehold form of land ownership. Furthermore, large freehold estates subdivided as smaller leased out fragments constituted of 21%, while the native lease and communal tenure systems accounted for the remainder 22% and 8%, respectively (Table 4.5a). The freehold leases were only for a short term duration (3-4 years) imposing severe 55 restrictions on adoption of conservation practices. Under this arrangement of taro cultivation, continuous cropping targeting maximum output per unit area of land is the paramount interest of the farmers. The native land and communal leases under taro production comprise of larger units with longer terms of lease. Under these forms of ownerships, some conservation practices, such as crop rotation and seasonal fallowing are adopted. Table 4.5b Distribution of farm size under taro cultivation Farm size (acres) No. of Farms 1-5 32 (36) 6 - 10 41 (45) 11 - 15 10 (12) 16 - 20 3 (3) 21 - 25 2 (2) 26 - 30 2 (2) *The figures in parenthesis denote percentage of farms surveyed. The farmer survey data revealed that 81% of the farm holdings in Taveuni were 10 acres (0.4ha) or less. These small fragmented holdings contribute to approximately 80% of the total taro grown for the export market. This small scale of operations coupled with the constrained economic climate of these holdings limit the adoption of most the recommended husbandry practices which advocate sustainable production. As such, yield decline under these holdings turn out to be inevitable. On the hand, the remaining 19% of the relatively larger production units were in a better position to adopt alternative sustainable package of taro cultivation, such as crop rotation, shifting cultivation and fallowing. In addition, these are the units that are comparatively more financially capable with regards to the usage of agro inputs. 56 From the survey, it was evident that the average farm size and the management decisions that they dictate, significantly contribute to the overall fertility levels and declines experienced by the taro farmers. 4.8 Production constraints as identified by taro growers The production constraints were systematically categorised fewer than five predominant classes. Some growers identified multiple constraints to be the limiting factors and were recorded as such (Fig. 4.14). 100 90 80 % of farmers 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Production cost Figure 4.14 Inconsistency of supply of agro inputs Roading/Access Constraint Instability of market prices Lack of technical know how Identification of production constraints by farmers Instability of market prices resulting from inconsistencies in production was revealed to be the most severe constraint facing taro growers of Taveuni with all the surveyed farmers (100%) identifying it as a significant determinant of their net farm income. Road access, lack of technical knowledge and high variable production costs constitute the other constraints limiting the full realisation of taro farming output. As far as lack of technical knowledge is concerned, Nisha et al. (2014) evaluated the soil nutrient management practices of taro farmers in Taveuni and highlighted that the main cause of low use of fertilisers was that the farmers do not know the fertility status of their farms and majority of them are also not fully aware of various low-cost organic methods of maintaining the soil fertility of their farms. 57 These constraints largely determine the economic position of the farmers and dictate the underlying factors affecting the degree of adoption of sustainable crop and soil conservation management practices needed to maintain soil chemical fertility. 58 CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSIONS 5.1 Summary Sustainability, although a dynamic concept, implies some sort of equilibrium or steady state. The analyses presented in this research work has shown that many soil chemical properties significantly change with time, and it can be argued that land-use systems in which significant soil fertility decline takes place are not sustainable in the long term. This research has used a set of basic soil chemical properties (pH, total N, Olsen P and exchangeable cations) to investigate changes under taro cropping systems in Taveuni, Fiji, over a 22 year period of intensive cultivation with little to no fallow. Each of the property shows a degree of natural variation that is affected by soil management and the cropping system. Since taro is an annual crop, decline in soil fertility is comparatively larger than other land-use systems, which thus have a significant effect on crop productivity. The high native fertility levels and production potential of Taveuni soils declined rapidly when the forest cover was replaced by the annual crop of taro. 5.2 Conclusions This was particularly evident from the trend analyses of the nutrient elements which, altogether with soil pH and taro yields, revealed significant declines over the 22 year cropping period, with the exception of exchangeable K. Significant associations between and dependence of taro yields on soil pH, Olsen P, exchangeable Ca and exchangeable Mg were also observed. In addition, significant changes in these four chemical parameters were observed when the pre and the post cultivation levels were compared. Olsen P and exchangeable Mg were identified to be the most limiting nutrients for the taro soils of Taveuni. The increased use of inorganic fertilisers and lime was deemed necessary towards the latter years of the research period in an attempt to sustain yields and continuing research 59 needs to be undertaken to ascertain any resultant significant changes. Obviously, soil fertility is a complex issue consisting of several attributes that interact over time. Measurements require long-term research commitments as well as detailed knowledge about spatial and temporal variability. 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Dissertation Thesis, ITC Enschede and Utrecht University, The Netherlands, 194 pp. 73 APPENDICES APPENDIX 1 SOIL AND LAND USE CAPABILITY MAP OF TAVEUNI 74 APPENDIX 2 EXPORT SPECIFICATIONS FOR TARO IN FIJI Variety: Tausala ni Samoa Cleanliness: Washed clean Appearance: Conical in shape Corm flesh: Light yellow Maturity: Corm should be seven months old Maximum corm weight: 1 - 3 kg Size of corm: 15 - 20 cm in length and 10 - 12 cm in maximum diameter, free from buds/shoots and shaggy hair Decay: No surface mould or corm softening. Postharvest: No physical deformations (Source: Robin, 2000) 75 bruises, injuries and APPENDIX 3 1990 – 2012 Data on: A) Soil Fertility, B) Temperature, C) Dry Zone Rainfall and D) Taro production (1994 – 2013) pH Nitrogen Olsen P H2O (%) (mg/kg) Ca me% Mg me% K me% 1990 6.0 0.67 31.8 10.4 7.57 0.21 1991 5.8 0.71 38.1 12.88 6.36 0.24 1992 5.7 1.0 29.7 9.8 5.35 0.33 1993 5.7 0.68 22.8 11.2 6.2 0.31 1994 5.7 0.64 23.4 11.7 6.1 0.32 1995 5.7 0.63 23.6 11.8 6.2 0.33 1996 5.7 0.55 14.8 11.22 6.6 0.31 1997 5.6 0.52 13.7 11.51 5.8 0.32 1998 5.8 0.54 9.3 12.3 5.3 0.30 1999 5.6 0.61 7.8 9.56 6.1 0.29 2000 5.7 0.41 6.4 10.55 5.2 0.23 2001 5.8 0.44 6.5 11.26 4.2 0.27 2002 5.9 0.35 7.2 8.23 4.9 0.26 2003 5.5 0.34 6.8 8.88 3.2 0.23 2004 5.4 0.34 6.4 8.93 3.2 0.22 2005 5.3 0.51 6.3 9.01 3.4 0.26 2006 5.28 0.46 7.74 8.84 3.56 0.40 2007 5.47 1.15 10.35 6.63 4.09 0.17 2008 5.00 0.45 5.48 5.16 2.86 0.37 2009 5.65 0.63 7.13 13.95 5.51 1.03 2010 5.70 0.57 6.75 11.83 5.13 0.55 2011 5.49 0.48 8.91 8.89 4.51 0.41 2012 5.80 0.61 6.91 8.05 6.02 2.34 76 Exchangeable Bases Wet zone pH Nitrogen Olsen P H2O (%) (mg/kg) Ca me% Mg me% K me% 1990 5.7 0.81 54 13.64 8.57 0.2 1991 5.7 0.61 59 14.95 7.41 0.5 1992 5.9 0.76 59.3 10.95 6.45 0.35 1993 5.9 0.70 30 10.4 7.52 0.40 1994 6.1 0.77 32.5 11.52 6.52 0.42 1995 6.2 0.83 35.5 13.43 6.32 0.48 1996 5.9 0.69 21.3 10.42 6.95 0.53 1997 5.8 0.67 15.6 9.24 5.64 0.44 1998 5.6 0.42 15.1 11.2 5.63 0.33 1999 5.8 0.42 15.2 11.1 4.23 0.42 2000 5.6 0.56 13.4 9.31 2.36 0.57 2001 5.8 0.48 9.4 8.25 4.89 0.52 2002 5.7 0.58 12.3 8.56 4.56 0.28 2003 5.8 0.51 12.8 9.26 5.63 0.41 2004 6.0 0.52 7.8 10.71 5.89 0.36 2005 5.9 0.44 6.1 9.93 4.23 0.42 2006 5.28 0.46 7.74 8.84 3.56 0.40 2007 5.47 1.15 10.35 6.63 4.09 0.17 2008 5.00 0.45 5.48 5.16 2.86 0.37 2009 5.65 0.63 7.13 13.95 5.51 1.03 2010 5.70 0.57 6.75 11.83 5.13 0.55 2011 5.49 0.48 8.91 8.89 4.51 0.41 2012 5.80 0.61 6.91 8.05 6.02 2.34 77 Exchangable Bases Intermediate Zone pH Nitrogen Olsen P H2O (%) (mg/kg) Ca me% Mg me% K me% 1990 6.4 0.39 45 13.64 8.57 0.4 1991 6.2 0.71 40 14.68 7.95 0.33 1992 5.9 0.62 48.4 11.9 4.4 0.33 1993 5.73 0.63 22.05 11.06 5.01 0.3 1994 5.7 0.62 21.4 11.8 5.53 0.31 1995 5.8 0.62 21.5 12.06 6.48 0.28 1996 5.7 0.59 13.2 9.06 6.69 0.33 1997 5.8 0.47 12.5 9.65 6.45 0.41 1998 5.8 0.58 15.2 10.25 4.52 0.28 1999 5.7 0.55 13.5 12.56 4.02 0.23 2000 5.7 0.50 9.2 11.25 5.21 0.36 2001 5.7 0.42 10.2 9.25 6.72 0.31 2002 5.6 0.42 9.8 10.64 3.22 0.44 2003 5.8 0.53 13.1 6.45 4.52 0.56 2004 5.7 0.48 7.8 7.28 5.21 0.66 2005 5.8 0.51 5.8 8.43 4.87 0.43 2006 5.76 1.13 4.46 11.38 4.23 0.26 2007 5.47 0.72 4.30 7.09 2.92 0.43 2008 5.72 0.59 12.16 13.70 3.54 0.45 2009 5.78 0.38 9.00 8.49 4.55 0.48 2010 5.73 0.55 3.30 5.90 2.42 0.36 2011 5.53 0.53 7.81 5.08 2.78 0.57 2012 5.61 0.89 10.58 6.31 4.99 2.33 Mean Annual Max and Min Temperature 78 Exchangable Bases Year Mean Annual Max Temp Mean Annual Min Temp 1990 28.7 23.5 1991 28.8 23.3 1992 28.5 23.3 1993 28.5 23.1 1994 28.5 23.1 1995 28.8 23.3 1996 29.1 23.1 1997 28.3 23 1998 29.3 23.1 1999 29.0 25.7 2000 28 25.8 2001 28.8 22.8 2002 29.3 23.8 2003 28.9 23.2 2004 29.2 23.0 2005 29.2 23.4 2006 29.1 26.6 2007 29.4 23.3 2008 29.3 23.5 2009 28.9 22.9 2010 29.2 23.7 2011 29.4 24.0 2012 29.0 23.8 79 Annual Rainfall (mm) Year Annual Rainfall (mm) Dry Intermediate Wet 1990 3425.7 3494.2 3596.9 1991 2864.8 2922.0 3008.0 1992 2116.6 2158.9 2222.4 1993 2025.6 2066.1 2126.8 1994 2177.9 2221.4 2286.7 1995 3030.2 3090.0 3181.7 1996 2724.2 2778.6 2860.4 1997 3489.9 3558.9 3663.6 1998 1901 1939.0 1996.5 1999 2786 2925.3 2869.5 2000 2854 2996.7 2911.5 2001 1158.4 1181.5 1216.3 2002 2116.3 2158.6 2222.1 2003 1443.3 1472.1 1515.4 2004 2081.1 2122.7 2185.1 2005 2338.4 2385.1 2455.3 2006 2765.4 2903.6 2848.1 2007 3192.3 3256.1 3351.9 2008 2791.6 2847.4 2931.1 2009 2228 2272.5 2339.4 2010 2157.4 2200.5 2265.2 2011 2682.6 2736.2 2816.7 2012 3308.3 3374.4 3473.7 80 Taro Production – 1994 - 2013 Year Dry zone Wet zone Intermediate zone t/ha 1994 32.9 36.0 31.5 1995 33.0 36.0 31.4 1996 33.6 30.8 33.6 1997 33.6 29.7 32.3 1998 30.8 33.1 34.1 1999 23.1 22.3 25.2 2000 18.9 18.4 19.8 2001 15.8 15.2 15.8 2002 16.5 15.0 15.8 2003 13.2 12.0 12.6 2004 11.6 11.0 11.0 2005 10.5 10.0 10.0 2006 10.5 10.0 11.4 2007 9.9 10.0 10.0 2008 9.9 9.9 10.0 2009 9.6 9.6 9.6 2010 9.1 10.4 9.6 2011 9.1 9.6 10.4 2012 9.8 9.4 8.9 2013 8.4 9.1 9.1 81 APPENDIX 4 ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE FOR BETWEEN RAINFALL-ZONES (STRATA) COMPARISON Variate: Ca Source of variation d.f. s.s. m.s. v.r. 22 207.563 9.435 2.55 2 0.656 0.328 0.09 Residual 44 162.537 3.694 Total 68 370.756 Year stratum F pr. Year.*Units* stratum Strata Tables of means Variate: Ca Grand mean 10.00 Strata 1 2 3 10.11 10.01 9.87 Standard errors of means Table Strata rep. 23 d.f. 44 e.s.e. 0.401 Standard errors of differences of means Table Strata rep. 23 d.f. 44 s.e.d. 0.567 Least significant differences of means (5% level) Table Strata rep. 23 d.f. 44 l.s.d. 1.142 82 0.915 Variate: K Source of variation d.f. s.s. m.s. v.r. 22 3.5646 0.1620 0.74 2 0.6134 0.3067 1.41 Residual 44 9.5707 0.2175 Total 68 13.7488 Year stratum F pr. Year.*Units* stratum Strata Tables of means Variate: K Grand mean 0.421 Strata 1 2 3 0.307 0.417 0.538 Standard errors of means Table Strata rep. 23 d.f. 44 e.s.e. 0.0972 Standard errors of differences of means Table Strata rep. 23 d.f. 44 s.e.d. 0.1375 Least significant differences of means (5% level) Table Strata rep. 23 d.f. 44 l.s.d. 0.2772 83 0.255 Variate: Mg Source of variation d.f. s.s. m.s. v.r. 22 110.2061 5.0094 5.73 2 0.8268 0.4134 0.47 Residual 44 38.4353 0.8735 Total 68 149.4681 Year stratum F pr. Year.*Units* stratum Strata Tables of means Variate: Mg Grand mean 5.14 Strata 1 2 3 5.22 5.22 4.99 Standard errors of means Table Strata rep. 23 d.f. 44 e.s.e. 0.195 Standard errors of differences of means Table Strata rep. 23 d.f. 44 s.e.d. 0.276 Least significant differences of means (5% level) Table Strata rep. 23 d.f. 44 l.s.d. 0.555 84 0.626 Variate: N Source of variation d.f. s.s. m.s. v.r. 22 0.639855 0.029084 3.92 2 0.071829 0.035914 4.84 Residual 44 0.326571 0.007422 Total 68 1.038255 Year stratum F pr. Year.*Units* stratum Strata Tables of means Variate: N Grand mean 0.572 Strata 1 2 3 0.530 0.609 0.576 Standard errors of means Table Strata rep. 23 d.f. 44 e.s.e. 0.0180 Standard errors of differences of means Table Strata rep. 23 d.f. 44 s.e.d. 0.0254 Least significant differences of means (5% level) Table Strata rep. 23 d.f. 44 l.s.d. 0.0512 85 0.013 Variate: P Source of variation d.f. s.s. m.s. v.r. 22 11107.93 504.91 21.04 2 406.87 203.44 8.48 Residual 44 1056.10 24.00 Total 68 12570.90 Year stratum F pr. Year.*Units* stratum Strata Tables of means Variate: P Grand mean 16.2 Strata 1 13.4 Standard errors of means TableStrata rep. d.f. e.s.e. 2 19.3 3 16.0 23 44 1.02 Standard errors of differences of means Table Strata rep. 23 d.f. 44 s.e.d. 1.44 Least significant differences of means (5% level) Table Strata rep. 23 d.f. 44 l.s.d. 2.91 86 <.001 Variate: pH Source of variation d.f. s.s. m.s. v.r. 22 0.87292 0.03968 1.24 2 0.29797 0.14899 4.67 Residual 44 1.40349 0.03190 Total 68 2.57438 Year stratum F pr. Year.*Units* stratum Strata Tables of means Variate: pH Grand mean 5.7 Strata 1 2 3 5.6 5.8 5.8 Standard errors of means Table Strata rep. 23 d.f. 44 e.s.e. 0.04 Standard errors of differences of means Table Strata rep. 23 d.f. 44 s.e.d. 0.05 Least significant differences of means (5% level) Table Strata rep. 23 d.f. 44 l.s.d. 0.11 87 0.014 Variate: %_Rejects Source of variation d.f. s.s. m.s. v.r. 19 5672.11 298.53 14.00 2 143.61 71.80 3.37 Residual 38 810.01 21.32 Total 59 6625.73 Year stratum F pr. Year.*Units* stratum Strata Tables of means Variate: %_Rejects Grand mean 13.46 Strata 1 2 3 15.25 11.48 13.65 Standard errors of means TableStrata rep. 20 d.f. 38 e.s.e. 1.032 Standard errors of differences of means Table Strata rep. 20 d.f. 38 s.e.d. 1.460 Least significant differences of means (5% level) Table Strata rep. 20 d.f. 38 l.s.d. 2.956 88 0.045 Variate: Yield Source of variation d.f. s.s. m.s. v.r. 19 5475.301 288.174 213.53 2 0.529 0.264 0.20 Residual 38 51.284 1.350 Total 59 5527.114 Year stratum F pr. Year.*Units* stratum Strata Tables of means Variate: Yield Grand mean 17.49 Strata 1 2 3 17.49 17.60 17.38 Standard errors of means TableStrata rep. 20 d.f. 38 e.s.e. 0.260 Standard errors of differences of means Table Strata rep. 20 d.f. 38 s.e.d. 0.367 Least significant differences of means (5% level) Table Strata rep. 20 d.f. 38 l.s.d. 0.744 89 0.823 APPENDIX 5 PAIRED SAMPLE T-TEST FOR COMPARISON OF SOIL CHEMICAL INDICES AND YIELDS PRE AND POST- 22- YEAR CULTIVATION PERIOD Variate: Ca. Summary Sample Present-Previous Size 9 Mean -5.209 Variance 16.28 Standard deviation 4.035 Standard error of mean 1.345 95% confidence interval for mean: (-8.311, -2.107) Test of null hypothesis that mean of Present-Previous is equal to 0 Test statistic t = -3.87 on 8 d.f. Probability = 0.005 Variate: K Summary Sample Present-Previous Size 9 Mean 0.09000 Variance 0.04565 Standard deviation 0.2137 95% confidence interval for mean: (-0.07423, 0.2542) Test of null hypothesis that mean of Present-Previous is equal to 0 Test statistic t = 1.26 on 8 d.f. Probability = 0.242 90 Standard error of mean 0.07122 Variate: Mg Summary Sample Present-Previous Size 9 Mean -2.617 Variance 3.648 Standard deviation 1.910 Standard error of mean 0.6367 95% confidence interval for mean: (-4.085, -1.149) Test of null hypothesis that mean of Present-Previous is equal to 0 Test statistic t = -4.11 on 8 d.f. Probability = 0.003 Variate: N Summary Sample Present-Previous Size 9 Mean -0.1722 Variance 0.1664 Standard deviation 0.4080 Standard error of mean 0.1360 95% confidence interval for mean: (-0.4858, 0.1414) Test of null hypothesis that mean of Present-Previous is equal to 0 Test statistic t = -1.27 on 8 d.f. Probability = 0.241 Variate: P Summary Sample Present-Previous Size 9 Mean -36.45 Variance 365.7 Standard deviation 19.12 95% confidence interval for mean: (-51.15, -21.75) Test of null hypothesis that mean of Present-Previous is equal to 0 Test statistic t = -5.72 on 8 d.f. Probability < 0.001 91 Standard error of mean 6.374 Variate: pH Summary Sample Present-Previous Size 9 Mean -0.1556 Variance 0.2411 Standard deviation 0.4910 Standard error of mean 0.1637 95% confidence interval for mean: (-0.5330, 0.2219) Test of null hypothesis that mean of Present-Previous is equal to 0 Test statistic t = -0.95 on 8 d.f. Probability = 0.370 Variate: Yield Summary Sample Present-Previous Size 9 Mean -24.14 Variance 3.170 Standard deviation 1.781 95% confidence interval for mean: (-25.51, -22.78) Test of null hypothesis that mean of Present-Previous is equal to 0 Test statistic t = -40.68 on 8 d.f. Probability < 0.001 92 Standard error of mean 0.5935 APPENDIX 6 CORRELATION ANALYSES FOR ASSOCIATION BETWEEN INDICES FOR DRY ZONE (STRATA) OF TAVEUNI Correlation: Yield vs Rainfall Yield Rainfall 0.1323 Yield Rainfall Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Yield Rainfall 0.5893 Yield Rainfall Correlation: Yield vs Temperature Temperature Yield -0.5615 Temperature Yield Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Temperature Yield 0.0124 Temperature Yield Correlation: Soil pH vs Yield pH Yield 0.4254 pH Yield Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities pH Yield 0.0694 pH Yield 93 Correlation: Total N vs Yield N Yield 0.4018 N Yield Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities N Yield 0.0881 N Yield Correlation: Olsen P vs Yield P Yield 0.7600 P Yield Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities P Yield 0.0002 P Yield Correlation: Exchangeable K vs Yield K Yield -0.1357 K Yield Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities K Yield 0.5798 K Yield 94 Correlation: Exchangeable Ca vs Yield Ca Yield 0.5080 Ca Yield Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Ca Yield 0.0264 Ca Yield Correlation: Exchangeable Mg vs Yield Mg Yield 0.6863 Mg Yield Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Mg Yield 0.0012 Mg Yield Correlation: Rainfall vs Temperature Rainfall Temperature -0.0911 Rainfall Temperature Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Rainfall Temperature 0.7106 Rainfall Temperature 95 Correlation: Rainfall vs Soil pH Rainfall pH 0.0223 Rainfall pH Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Rainfall pH 0.9279 Rainfall pH Correlation: Total N vs Rainfall Rainfall N 0.3536 Rainfall N Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Rainfall N 0.1376 Rainfall N Correlation: Rainfall vs Olsen P Rainfall P 0.1783 Rainfall P Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Rainfall P 0.4653 Rainfall P 96 Correlation: Rainfall vs Exchangeable K Rainfall K -0.0328 Rainfall K Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Rainfall K 0.8940 Rainfall K Correlation: Rainfall vs Exchangeable Ca Rainfall Ca -0.1786 Rainfall Ca Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Rainfall Ca 0.4645 Rainfall Ca Correlation: Rainfall vs Exchangeable Mg Rainfall Mg 0.2497 Rainfall Mg Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Rainfall Mg 0.3026 Rainfall Mg 97 Correlation: Temperature vs Soil pH Temperature pH -0.2800 Temperature pH Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Temperature pH 0.2456 Temperature pH Correlation: Temperature vs Total N Temperature N -0.2382 Temperature N Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Temperature N 0.3262 Temperature N Correlation: Temperature vs Olsen P Temperature P -0.3332 Temperature P Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Temperature P 0.1634 Temperature P 98 Correlation: Temperature vs Exchangeable K Temperature K 0.2519 Temperature K Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Temperature K 0.2981 Temperature K Correlation: Temperature vs Exchangeable Ca Temperature Ca -0.5407 Temperature Ca Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Temperature Ca 0.0168 Temperature Ca Correlation: Temperature vs Exchangeable Mg Temperature Mg -0.5635 Temperature Mg Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Temperature Mg 0.0120 Temperature Mg 99 Correlation: Soil pH vs Total N pH N 0.3392 pH N Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities pH N 0.1554 pH N Correlation: Soil pH vs Olsen P pH P 0.2251 pH P Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities pH P 0.3542 pH P Correlation: Soil pH vs Exchangeable K pH K 0.0069 pH K Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities pH K 0.9775 pH K 100 Correlation: Soil pH vs Exchangeable Ca pH Ca 0.4659 pH Ca Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities pH Ca 0.0444 pH Ca Correlation: Soil pH vs Exchangeable Mg pH Mg 0.6996 pH Mg Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities pH Mg 0.0009 pH Mg Correlation: Total N vs Olsen P N P 0.5413 N P Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities N P 0.0167 N P 101 Correlation: Total N vs Exchangeable K N K 0.4911 N K Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities N K 0.0327 N K Correlation: Total N vs Exchangeable Ca N Ca 0.4882 N Ca Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities N Ca 0.0340 N Ca Correlation: Total N vs Exchangeable Mg N Mg 0.6093 N Mg Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities N Mg 0.0056 N Mg 102 Correlation: Olsen P vs Exchangeable K K P 0.0141 K P Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities K P 0.9545 K P Correlation: Olsen P vs Exchangeable Ca P Ca 0.3823 P Ca Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities P Ca 0.1062 P Ca Correlation: Olsen P vs Exchangeable Mg P Mg 0.5186 P Mg Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities P Mg 0.0229 P Mg 103 Correlation: Exchangeable K vs Exchangeable Ca K Ca 0.3717 K Ca Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities K Ca 0.1171 K Ca Correlation: Exchangeable K vs Exchangeable Mg K Mg 0.0699 K Mg Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities K Mg 0.7761 K Mg Correlation: Exchangeable Ca vs Exchangeable Mg Ca Mg 0.6923 Ca Mg Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Ca Mg 0.0010 Ca Mg 104 APPENDIX 7 CORRELATION ANALYSES FOR ASSOCIATION BETWEEN INDICES FOR INTERMEDIATE ZONE (STRATA) OF TAVEUNI Correlation: Yield vs Rainfall Yield Rainfall 0.0538 Yield Rainfall Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Yield Rainfall 0.8268 Yield Rainfall Correlation: Yield vs Temperature Temperature Yield -0.5441 Temperature Yield Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Temperature Yield 0.0160 Temperature Yield Correlation: Soil pH vs Yield pH Yield 0.4139 pH Yield Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities pH Yield 0.0782 pH Yield 105 Correlation: Total N vs Yield N Yield -0.0298 N Yield Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities N Yield 0.9038 N Yield Correlation: Olsen P vs Yield P Yield 0.7140 P Yield Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities P Yield 0.0006 P Yield Correlation: Exchangeable K vs Yield K Yield -0.5043 K Yield Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities K Yield 0.0277 K Yield 106 Correlation: Exchangeable Ca vs Yield Ca Yield 0.4632 Ca Yield Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Ca Yield 0.0458 Ca Yield Correlation: Exchangeable Mg vs Yield Mg Yield 0.5868 Mg Yield Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Mg Yield 0.0083 Mg Yield Correlation: Rainfall vs Temperature Rainfall Temperature -0.0361 Rainfall Temperature Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Rainfall Temperature 0.8833 Rainfall Temperature 107 Correlation: Rainfall vs Soil pH Rainfall pH -0.4572 Rainfall pH Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Rainfall pH 0.0490 Rainfall pH Correlation: Total N vs Rainfall Rainfall N 0.4638 Rainfall N Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Rainfall N 0.0455 Rainfall N Correlation: Rainfall vs Olsen P Rainfall P -0.2000 Rainfall P Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Rainfall P 0.4117 Rainfall P 108 Correlation: Rainfall vs Exchangeable K Rainfall K -0.3158 Rainfall K Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Rainfall K 0.1880 Rainfall K Correlation: Rainfall vs Exchangeable Ca Rainfall Ca 0.0930 Rainfall Ca Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Rainfall Ca 0.7048 Rainfall Ca Correlation: Rainfall vs Exchangeable Mg Rainfall Mg 0.1024 Rainfall Mg Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Rainfall Mg 0.6766 Rainfall Mg 109 Correlation: Temperature vs Soil pH Temperature pH -0.4760 Temperature pH Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Temperature pH 0.0394 Temperature pH Correlation: Temperature vs Total N Temperature N 0.3274 Temperature N Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Temperature N 0.1712 Temperature N Correlation: Temperature vs Olsen P Temperature P -0.5396 Temperature P Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Temperature P 0.0171 Temperature P 110 Correlation: Temperature vs Exchangeable K Temperature K 0.2660 Temperature K Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Temperature K 0.2710 Temperature K Correlation: Temperature vs Exchangeable Ca Temperature Ca -0.3534 Temperature Ca Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Temperature Ca 0.1377 Temperature Ca Correlation: Temperature vs Exchangeable Mg Temperature Mg -0.7227 Temperature Mg Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Temperature Mg 0.0005 Temperature Mg 111 Correlation: Soil pH vs Total N pH N -0.2876 pH N Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities pH N 0.2324 pH N Correlation: Soil pH vs Olsen P pH P 0.4862 pH P Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities pH P 0.0348 pH P Correlation: Soil pH vs Exchangeable K pH K -0.2231 pH K Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities pH K 0.3587 pH K 112 Correlation: Soil pH vs Exchangeable Ca pH Ca 0.3786 pH Ca Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities pH Ca 0.1100 pH Ca Correlation: Soil pH vs Exchangeable Mg pH Mg 0.4929 pH Mg Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities pH Mg 0.0320 pH Mg Correlation: Total N vs Olsen P N P 0.0313 N P Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities N P 0.8987 N P 113 Correlation: Total N vs Exchangeable K N K -0.3926 N K Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities N K 0.0963 N K Correlation: Total N vs Exchangeable Ca N Ca -0.0985 N Ca Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities N Ca 0.6884 N Ca Correlation: Total N vs Exchangeable Mg N Mg -0.0891 N Mg Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities N Mg 0.7168 N Mg 114 Correlation: Olsen P vs Exchangeable K K P -0.2264 K P Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities K P 0.3513 K P Correlation: Olsen P vs Exchangeable Ca P Ca 0.4431 P Ca Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities P Ca 0.0574 P Ca Correlation: Olsen P vs Exchangeable Mg P Mg 0.5866 P Mg Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities P Mg 0.0083 P Mg 115 Correlation: Exchangeable K vs Exchangeable Ca K Ca -0.5113 K Ca Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities K Ca 0.0253 K Ca Correlation: Exchangeable K vs Exchangeable Mg K Mg -0.2734 K Mg Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities K Mg 0.2574 K Mg Correlation: Exchangeable Ca vs Exchangeable Mg Ca Mg 0.2587 Ca Mg Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Ca Mg 0.2848 Ca Mg 116 APPENDIX 8 CORRELATION ANALYSES FOR ASSOCIATION BETWEEN INDICES FOR WET ZONE (STRATA) OF TAVEUNI Correlation: Yield vs Rainfall Yield Rainfall 0.0852 Yield Rainfall Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Yield Rainfall 0.7287 Yield Rainfall Correlation: Yield vs Temperature Temperature Yield -0.5342 Temperature Yield Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Temperature Yield 0.0185 Temperature Yield Correlation: Soil pH vs Yield pH Yield 0.3274 pH Yield Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities pH Yield 0.1713 pH Yield 117 Correlation: Total N vs Yield N Yield 0.2703 N Yield Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities N Yield 0.2630 N Yield Correlation: Olsen P vs Yield P Yield 0.8773 P Yield Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities P Yield 0.0000 P Yield Correlation: Exchangeable K vs Yield K Yield 0.2417 K Yield Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities K Yield 0.3187 K Yield 118 Correlation: Exchangeable Ca vs Yield Ca Yield 0.6292 Ca Yield Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Ca Yield 0.0039 Ca Yield Correlation: Exchangeable Mg vs Yield Mg Yield 0.6563 Mg Yield Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Mg Yield 0.0023 Mg Yield Correlation: Rainfall vs Temperature Rainfall Temperature -0.0911 Rainfall Temperature Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Rainfall Temperature 0.7106 Rainfall Temperature 119 Correlation: Rainfall vs Soil pH Rainfall pH 0.1244 Rainfall pH Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Rainfall pH 0.6119 Rainfall pH Correlation: Total N vs Rainfall Rainfall N 0.3708 Rainfall N Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Rainfall N 0.1180 Rainfall N Correlation: Rainfall vs Olsen P Rainfall P -0.0323 Rainfall P Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Rainfall P 0.8954 Rainfall P 120 Correlation: Rainfall vs Exchangeable K Rainfall K 0.3629 Rainfall K Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Rainfall K 0.1268 Rainfall K Correlation: Rainfall vs Exchangeable Ca Rainfall Ca -0.1231 Rainfall Ca Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Rainfall Ca 0.6156 Rainfall Ca Correlation: Rainfall vs Exchangeable Mg Rainfall Mg -0.0009 Rainfall Mg Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Rainfall Mg 0.9971 Rainfall Mg 121 Correlation: Temperature vs Soil pH Temperature pH -0.1372 Temperature pH Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Temperature pH 0.5755 Temperature pH Correlation: Temperature vs Total N Temperature N 0.0517 Temperature N Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Temperature N 0.8334 Temperature N Correlation: Temperature vs Olsen P Temperature P -0.5150 Temperature P Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Temperature P 0.0241 Temperature P 122 Correlation: Temperature vs Exchangeable K Temperature K -0.4689 Temperature K Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Temperature K 0.0428 Temperature K Correlation: Temperature vs Exchangeable Ca Temperature Ca -0.2287 Temperature Ca Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Temperature Ca 0.3462 Temperature Ca Correlation: Temperature vs Exchangeable Mg Temperature Mg -0.2701 Temperature Mg Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Temperature Mg 0.2630 Temperature Mg 123 Correlation: Soil pH vs Total N pH N 0.4435 pH N Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities pH N 0.0572 pH N Correlation: Soil pH vs Olsen P pH P 0.5261 pH P Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities pH P 0.0207 pH P Correlation: Soil pH vs Exchangeable K pH K 0.0858 pH K Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities pH K 0.7268 pH K 124 Correlation: Soil pH vs Exchangeable Ca pH Ca 0.5921 pH Ca Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities pH Ca 0.0076 pH Ca Correlation: Soil pH vs Exchangeable Mg pH Mg 0.6359 pH Mg Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities pH Mg 0.0034 pH Mg Correlation: Total N vs Olsen P N P 0.3870 N P Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities N P 0.1017 N P 125 Correlation: Total N vs Exchangeable K N K 0.1545 N K Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities N K 0.5276 N K Correlation: Total N vs Exchangeable Ca N Ca -0.0442 N Ca Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities N Ca 0.8573 N Ca Correlation: Total N vs Exchangeable Mg N Mg 0.1500 N Mg Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities N Mg 0.5399 N Mg 126 Correlation: Olsen P vs Exchangeable K K P 0.3128 K P Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities K P 0.1923 K P Correlation: Olsen P vs Exchangeable Ca P Ca 0.6543 P Ca Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities P Ca 0.0024 P Ca Correlation: Olsen P vs Exchangeable Mg P Mg 0.6385 P Mg Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities P Mg 0.0033 P Mg 127 Correlation: Exchangeable K vs Exchangeable Ca K Ca 0.0781 K Ca Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities K Ca 0.7507 K Ca Correlation: Exchangeable K vs Exchangeable Mg K Mg 0.1669 K Mg Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities K Mg 0.4945 K Mg Correlation: Exchangeable Ca vs Exchangeable Mg Ca Mg 0.6531 Ca Mg Number of observations: 19 Two-sided test of correlations different from zero probabilities Ca Mg 0.0024 Ca Mg 128 APPENDIX 9 22 - YEAR TREND REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE Response variate:Exchangeable Ca Fitted terms: Constant, Year Summary of analysis Source Regression Residual Total d.f. 1 67 68 s.s. 150.9 219.8 370.8 m.s. 150.938 3.281 5.452 v.r. 46.01 F pr. <.001 Percentage variance accounted for 39.8 Standard error of observations is estimated to be 1.81. Estimates of parameters Parameterestimate s.e. Constant 456.2 Year -0.2230 t(67) t pr. 65.8 0.0329 6.93 -6.78 <.001 <.001 Response variate: Exchangeable K Fitted terms: Constant, Year Summary of analysis Source Regression Residual Total d.f. 1 67 68 s.s. 0.0433 0.7058 0.7491 m.s. 0.04333 0.01053 0.01102 v.r. 4.11 Percentage variance accounted for 4.4 Standard error of observations is estimated to be 0.103. Estimates of parameters Parameter estimate Constant -7.19 Year 0.00378 s.e. 3.73 0.00186 129 t(67) -1.93 2.03 t pr. 0.058 0.047 F pr. 0.047 Response variate:Exchangeable Mg Fitted terms: Constant, Year Summary of analysis Source Regression Residual Total d.f. 1 67 68 s.s. 76.96 72.51 149.47 m.s. 76.962 1.082 2.198 v.r. 71.12 F pr. <.001 Percentage variance accounted for 50.8 Standard error of observations is estimated to be 1.04. Estimates of parameters Parameter estimate Constant 323.7 Year -0.1592 s.e. 37.8 0.0189 t(67)t pr. 8.57 <.001 -8.43 <.001 Response variate: Total N Fitted terms: Constant + Year Submodels: POL(Year; 2) Summary of analysis Source Regression Residual Total d.f. 2 66 68 s.s. 0.4892 0.5491 1.0383 m.s. 0.244578 0.008320 0.015268 v.r. 29.40 F pr. <.001 Percentage variance accounted for 45.5 Standard error of observations is estimated to be 0.0912. Estimates of parameters Parameter Constant Year Lin Year Quad estimate 7841. -7.83 0.001956 130 s.e. 1120. 1.12 0.000280 t(66) 7.00 -6.99 6.99 t pr. <.001 <.001 <.001 Response variate: Olsen P Fitted terms: Constant + Year Submodels: POL(Year; 2) Summary of analysis Source Regression Residual Total d.f. 2 66 68 s.s. 10188. 2383. 12571. m.s. 5093.84 36.11 184.87 v.r. 141.07 F pr. <.001 Percentage variance accounted for 80.5 Standard error of observations is estimated to be 6.01. Estimates of parameters Parameter Constant Year Lin Year Quad estimate 608539. -606.6 0.1512 s.e. t(66) 73810. 73.8 0.0184 t pr. 8.24 -8.22 8.20 <.001 <.001 <.001 Response variate:Soil pH Fitted terms: Constant + Year Sub models: POL(Year; 2) Summary of analysis Source Regression Residual Total d.f. 2 66 68 s.s. 0.639 1.936 2.574 m.s. 0.31936 0.02933 0.03786 v.r. 10.89 F pr. <.001 Percentage variance accounted for 22.5 Standard error of observations is estimated to be 0.171. Estimates of parameters Parameter Constant Year Lin Year Quad estimate 4465. -4.44 0.001107 131 s.e. t(66)t pr. 2104. 2.12 2.10 -2.11 0.000525 2.11 0.038 0.038 0.039 Response variate:% Taro Rejects Fitted terms: Constant + Year Sub models: POL(Year; 2) Summary of analysis Source Regression Residual Total d.f. 2 57 59 s.s. 4336. 2057. 6393. m.s. 2168.21 36.08 108.36 v.r. 60.09 F pr. <.001 Percentage variance accounted for 66.7 Standard error of observations is estimated to be 6.01. Estimates of parameters Parameter Constant Year Lin Year Quad estimate 965788. -965. 0.2410 s.e. 105066. 105. 0.0262 t(57) 9.19 -9.20 9.21 Response variate: Av_Temp Fitted terms: Constant, Year Summary of analysis Source Regression Residual Total d.f. 1 21 22 s.s. 0.769 1.530 2.299 m.s. 0.76918 0.07285 0.10451 v.r. 10.56 Percentage variance accounted for 30.3 Standard error of observations is estimated to be 0.270. Estimates of parameters Parameter estimate Constant -29.0 Year 0.02757 s.e. 17.0 0.00848 132 t(21) -1.71 3.25 t pr. 0.102 0.004 F pr. 0.004 t pr. <.001 <.001 <.001 Response variate: Yield Fitted terms: Constant + Year Sub models: POL(Year; 2) Summary of analysis Source Regression Residual Total d.f. 2 57 59 s.s. 5142.2 391.7 5533.9 m.s. 2571.119 6.872 93.796 v.r. 374.14 F pr. <.001 Percentage variance accounted for 92.7 Standard error of observations is estimated to be 2.62. Estimates of parameters Parameter Constant Year Lin Year Quad estimate 452848. -450.5 0.1121 s.e. 45851. 45.8 0.0114 t(57) 9.88 -9.84 9.81 t pr. <.001 <.001 <.001 Response variate: 20 year mean monthly rainfall Fitted terms: Constant + Month Sub models: POL(Month; 2) Summary of analysis Source Regression Residual Total d.f. 2 9 11 s.s. 264847. 29549. 294396. m.s. 132423. 3283. 26763. v.r. 40.33 F pr. <.001 Percentage variance accounted for 87.7 Standard error of observations is estimated to be 57.3. Estimates of parameters Parameter Constant Month Lin Month Quad estimate 908.4 -183.7 12.69 133 s.e. 59.2 20.9 1.57 t(9) 15.34 -8.77 8.09 t pr. <.001 <.001 <.001 APPENDIX 10 LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE OF TARO YIELD ON INDIVIDUAL CHEMICAL INDICES Response variate:Taro Yield; Fitted terms: Constant, Exchangeable Ca Summary of analysis Source Regression Residual Total d.f. 1 55 56 s.s. 1449. 3850. 5299. m.s. 1448.78 70.00 94.63 v.r. 20.70 F pr. <.001 Percentage variance accounted for 26.0 Standard error of observations is estimated to be 8.37. Estimates of parameters Parameter estimate Constant -4.16 Ca 2.314 Response variate:Taro Yield; s.e. 4.98 0.509 t(55) -0.83 4.55 t pr. 0.407 <.001 Fitted terms: Constant, Exchangeable K Summary of analysis Source Regression Residual Total d.f. 1 55 56 s.s. 137. 5162. 5299. m.s. 136.99 93.86 94.63 v.r. 1.46 Percentage variance accounted for 0.8 Standard error of observations is estimated to be 9.69. Estimates of parameters Parameter estimate Constant 23.45 K -14.6 s.e. 4.74 12.1 134 t(55) 4.95 -1.21 t pr. <.001 0.232 F pr. 0.232 Response variate:Taro Yield; Fitted terms: Constant, Exchangeable Mg Summary of analysis Source Regression Residual Total d.f. 1 55 56 s.s. 2150. 3149. 5299. m.s. 2149.90 57.26 94.63 v.r. 37.55 F pr. <.001 Percentage variance accounted for 39.5 Standard error of observations is estimated to be 7.57. Estimates of parameters Parameter estimate Constant -5.55 Mg 4.893 Response variate:Taro Yield; s.e. 3.96 0.798 t(55) -1.40 6.13 t pr. 0.167 <.001 Fitted terms: Constant, % Total N Summary of analysis Source Regression Residual Total d.f. 1 55 56 s.s. 206. 5093. 5299. m.s. 205.81 92.60 94.63 v.r. 2.22 Percentage variance accounted for 2.1 Standard error of observations is estimated to be 9.62. Estimates of parameters Parameter estimate Constant 9.17 N 16.0 s.e. 6.02 10.8 135 t(55) 1.52 1.49 t pr. 0.134 0.142 F pr. 0.142 Response variate:Taro Yield; Fitted terms: Constant, Olsen P Summary of analysis Source Regression Residual Total d.f. 1 55 56 s.s. 3081. 2218. 5299. m.s. 3080.74 40.33 94.63 v.r. 76.38 F pr. <.001 Percentage variance accounted for 57.4 Standard error of observations is estimated to be 6.35. Estimates of parameters Parameter estimate Constant 5.32 P 1.123 s.e. 1.67 0.128 Response variate:Taro Yield; t(55) 3.18 8.74 t pr. 0.002 <.001 Fitted terms: Constant, Soil pH Summary of analysis Source Regression Residual Total d.f. 1 55 56 s.s. 589. 4710. 5299. m.s. 588.98 85.64 94.63 v.r. 6.88 Percentage variance accounted for 9.5 Standard error of observations is estimated to be 9.25. Estimates of parameters Parameter estimate Constant -88.7 pH 18.72 s.e. 40.7 7.14 136 t(55) -2.18 2.62 t pr. 0.034 0.011 F pr. 0.011 APPENDIX 11 MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE OF TARO YIELD ON SIGNIFICANT INDIVIDUAL CHEMICAL INDICES Response variate:Taro Yield;Fitted terms: Constant, Exchangeable Ca, Mg, Olsen P, pH Summary of analysis Source Regression Residual Total d.f. 4 52 56 s.s. 3579. 1720. 5299. m.s. 894.67 33.08 94.63 v.r. 27.04 Percentage variance accounted for 65.0 Standard error of observations is estimated to be 5.75. Estimates of parameters Parameter Constant Ca Mg P pH estimate 36.9 0.639 2.395 0.868 -8.13 s.e. 28.7 0.424 0.814 0.147 5.33 137 t(52) 1.29 1.51 2.94 5.91 -1.52 t pr. 0.204 0.138 0.005 <.001 0.133 F pr. <.001 APPENDIX 12 FARMER SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRE SECTION A – FARMER DETAILS 1. Name of the farmer (optional) : ____________________________ 2. Age (optional) : ____________________________ 3. Gender (optional) : ____________________________ 4. Educational level : ____________________________ 5. Race : ____________________________ SECTION B – FARM DETAILS 1. Location of the farm: (a) Stratum: ____________________ (Rainfall zone) (b) Village : ____________________ (c) District: ____________________ 2. Size of the farm: 3. (a) Land Tenure : ____________________ (b) Term of lease : ____________________ (c) Loan requirement/mortgage obligations: Scale of operation: (b) (a) ____________________ _____________________ Smallholder/semi-commercial Commercial 138 SECTION C: FARMING DETAILS 1. How long you have been farming? ______________ years 2. Which crops you started off with? ____________________________________________ ____________________________________________ 3. When did you venture into large scale taro cultivation? And state the reasons: _________________________________________________________________ ________ _________________________________________________________________ ________ _________________________________________________________________ ________ 4. Which taro varieties do you grow? __________________________ __________________________ 5. What trends in taro yield have you noticed over the years? _________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________ 139 6. Do you grow taro on previously cropped land or do you open up new forested area for growing? _________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________________ ____________________ 7. Do you practice crop rotation?_____________________________________ 8. Do you practice fallowing?________________________________________ 9. (a) How long after continuous cropping/cultivation do you practice fallowing? _________________________________________________________ (b) What is your fallow period?____________________________________ (c) Have your fallow durations remained constant or changed over the years? _______________________________________________________________________ _ 10. What kind of fallow: (a) Natural (b) Improved 11. Do you get your soil tested regularly? _________________________________________________________________ __________ 140 12. 13. a. Do you use fertiliser?________________________________________ b. Which fertiliser? c. How much? ______________________________________________ d. Since when? ______________________________________________ e. Do you receive government assistance on fertilisers?_______________ ________________________________________ Over the years, have you noticed any significant change (shift) in the weather pattern within your area? _________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________________ ______________________________ 14. After how many cropping cycle, especially in the newly opened area, you add fertiliser to get your desired yield? _________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________________ ____________________ 15. Without the use of fertiliser, are you able to meet the requirements of export specifications? _________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________________ ______________________________ 141 16. What are some of the major constraints you are currently facing? _________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________________ ____________________ 17. How has the taro industry evolved (changed) over the years? _________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________________ ______________________________ 142
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