What is already happening?
What could happen?
Large wintering flocks of Long-tailed
Duck and Velvet Scoter could
conceivably disappear from sites
such as Moray Firth.
Numbers of seaducks, particularly
Long-tailed Duck and Velvet Scoter,
are declining at traditional sites in
Scotland – possibly partly due to a
shift in range in response to climate
change . Numbers are also falling in
the Baltic Sea.
Regions: CP2 region 1, 7
Regions: CP 2 regions 1
Little Egrets could continue to
expand northwards up the east
coast of Britain, and become
established on estuaries such as the
Forth and Moray Firth (replicating
rapid increase on The Wash)
Wintering numbers of Little Egret
are increasingly on estuaries in
northwest England (mirroring what
has already taken place on south
coast of England & Wales).
Regions: CP 2 region 1
Regions: CP 2 regions 5
Turnstone and Purple Sandpiper
have shown evidence of a shift in
range from England towards the
relatively poorly monitored rocky
shores of northern Scotland (Austin
et al. 2007).
Regions: CP 2 region 4,5,6,7
CP2 regions
1. Northern North Sea
2. Southern North Sea
3. Eastern English Channel
4. Western English Channel, Celtic Sea and South-West Approaches
5. Irish Sea and North Channel
6 .Minches and Western Scotland
7. Scottish Continental Shelf
8. Atlantic North-West Approaches, Rockall Trough and Faroe–Shetland Channel
PLUS
Irish Waters
Isle of Man
Channel Islands
Potential changes to invertebrate
communities of rocky shores in
response to subtle habitat changes
due to climatic variation have been
suggested. This could affect rocky
shore specialists such as Purple
sandpiper (Rehfisch et al. 2004)
Regions: CP 2 regions 4,5,6
What is already happening?
What could happen?
National and regional trends for
waterbirds in the UK are sensitive
to the severity of winters across
NW Europe and associated
responses of birds.
Assuming winters revert to the
trend of getting milder with
reduced frequency of freezing, UK
winter populations (and trends) of
estuarine waders such as dunlin
and bar-tailed godwit will decline.
These species will probably respond
to such milder winter conditions by
net shifts to sites such as The
Wadden Sea (Netherlands).
Prior to recent frozen winters,
there had been evidence of an
easterly shift of estuarine waders,
both from the W to E coast of
Britain and contributing to a net
increase at the Wadden Sea, The
Netherlands.
If reduced Arctic sea-ice extent and
changes to global circulation
patterns increase the frequency of
severe winters in the short- to
medium-term, UK winter
populations of estuarine waders
and wildfowl may increase in
response to a net westward shift of
birds from the continent.
In recent cold winters (particularly
2010/11) increased numbers of
waders, esp. grey plover, dunlin,
bar-tailed godwit, curlew and
redshank, were recorded on east
coast estuaries, probably due to a
net westward shift from the
continent.
Regions: CP 2 region 4
Regions: CP 2 regions 2,3,4,5
Winter numbers of Slavonian
Grebes are increasing off N & W
Scotland. These are probably of
Icelandic origin, whereas birds from
Scandinavia may be short stopping
due to climate change. In
association, a much reduced
proportion of the population use
sites on south coast of England.
Regions: CP 2 regions 7, 8, (3)
CP2 regions
1. Northern North Sea
2. Southern North Sea
3. Eastern English Channel
4. Western English Channel, Celtic Sea and South-West Approaches
5. Irish Sea and North Channel
6 .Minches and Western Scotland
7.Scottish Continental Shelf
8. Atlantic North-West Approaches, Rockall Trough and Faroe–Shetland Channel
Future projections suggest that the
current SPA suite will continue to
protect internationally important
numbers of birds under a changing
climate. It is important to continue
to protect sites where populations
may be declining in response to
warming, as they may form
important cold weather refugia.
Regions: CP 2 regions all