The Puerto Rico Herald has obtained the findings from a telephone survey of 600 Latino voters
in Florida, including 275 Puerto Rican voters. Interviews were conducted August 16 – 25, 2015
by a nationally-recognized polling company.
Majorities of Florida Latinos have voted for the winner in recent presidential elections and, with
the Latino proportion of the vote increasing in recent years, it is even more likely the will chose
the winner in 2016, as well.
The Latino Vote in FL Presidential Elections
GOP Vote Share Among FL Latinos
Latino Proportion of Statewide Electorate
56%
49%
47%
39%
15%
11%
2000
14%
2004
17%
2008
2012
*Exit poll data
But Florida Latinos are by no means monolithic. Cubans, the largest group of Latino voters in
Florida, are poised to vote heavily Republican, while Puerto Ricans, the next largest group, are
less partisan and more open to persuasion. In fact, Puerto Ricans are twice as likely as Cubans to
be open to voting for either party. If Latinos turn out to be the swing vote in next year’s
presidential election, Puerto Ricans could be the ones standing at the plate and swinging the bat.
Expected Vote in 2016 General
Democratic Candidate
Puerto Ricans
Cubans
50%
22%
14%
Depends
Republican Candidate
29%
22%
64%
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Florida Puerto Ricans, like other Latinos, are very concerned about presidential candidates’ plans
for the economy, immigration, health care, and education. But in addition to these issues that are
of interest to most voters, Puerto Ricans will also be paying close attention to the candidates’
positions on statehood for Puerto Rico. In fact, one-third of Puerto Ricans who currently plan to
vote for the Democratic candidate would consider switching to a strong, pro-statehood GOP
candidate.
1/3rd of Puerto Ricans Who Plan to Vote Democratic Might Switch to GOP Over Statehood
Solid Democratic Voters
Might Change to GOP
FL Puerto Ricans who plan to vote for Democratic
presidential candidate
Would Change to GOP
65%
24%
14%
While Puerto Ricans in Florida are in near universal agreement about making Puerto Rico a state,
they are not alone. Florida Latinos overall are very supportive of making Puerto Rico the 51st
state.
Favor or Oppose Making Puerto Rico 51 st State?
(Not sure)
4%
(Not sure)
16%
Total oppose
16%
Total favor
68%
Overall
Total oppose
9%
Total favor
87%
Puerto Ricans
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Florida Latinos see a range of reasons for making Puerto Rico a state, but the most compelling
involve fundamental beliefs about fairness, dignity, respect, and giving Puerto Ricans the level
playing field all Americans deserve.
FL Latinos Believe Puerto Rico Deserves a Level Playing Field
Agree
Disagree
Residents of Puerto Rico deserve a level playing field
with the same legal rights and benefits as other U.S.
citizens... It is only fair that we grant them statehood
and level the playing field.
Puerto Ricans serve in the U.S. military at high rates and many have died in service…It is only right to give them the dignity and respect that comes with statehood.
86%
9%
84%
9%
Handling of issues related to Puerto Rico will send strong signals about what type of a president
a candidate would be for Latinos. Fully two-thirds of Florida Latinos would be more likely to
vote for a candidate committed to leveling the playing field for Puerto Rico, if it was the only
difference between the candidates
Level Playing Field for Puerto Rico Could Be Deciding Factor For FL Latinos
All FL Latinos
If there were two candidates that were basically the
same…except one of them promised to level the
playing field for Puerto Rico by giving…the same level
of tax credits and benefits…as families in the states
get. How likely would you be to vote for the candidates
who promises to level the playing field for Puerto Rico?
(Not sure)
16%
Total not likely
17%
Total likely
67%
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Support for Puerto Rican statehood remains high among Florida Latinos even after they are
provided with information about the unfolding financial crisis on the island, including the fact
that the Governor has said the government cannot pay its debts. In fact, 7-in-10 Latinos say they
are more favorable towards making Puerto Rico a state after hearing details about the financial
crisis.
Hearing About Financial Crisis in Puerto Rico Makes FL Latinos
More Favorable Towards Statehood
All FL Latinos
(Not sure)
15%
Does the information about Puerto Rico’s
financial situation make you more or less
favorable towards making Puerto Rico a
state?
Total less favorable
15%
Total more favorable
70%
Conclusions
Puerto Ricans have the potential to be the key swing voters in the presidential election in Florida
next year. They are less partisan than Cubans and much more likely to be undecided as to which
party they want in the White House next.
Puerto Rican voters in Florida will be closely watching candidates’ positions on statehood and
are unlikely to get behind a candidate who is not supportive of leveling the playing field for
Puerto Rico families. But Puerto Rican’s are not the only ones who want a candidate that
supports statehood. Florida Latinos broadly support statehood and believe it is a matter of
providing Puerto Ricans with the respect and dignity they deserve as American citizens.
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4.0 International License.