Document intended for professional clients
Contents
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Worldwide acceleration momentum continues, buoyed by the rebound
in China and the US
But the rise in long-term rates threatens to reveal weakness related to
excessive debt
The Fed is forced to harden its stance in view of market optimism, with
the risk of triggering a rise in the dollar, which would hamper some of
the big emerging markets such as China (capital outflows)
We reinforce our preference for equities and credit vs. sovereign bonds
Multiasset strategist
Investment and Clients Solutions
investment division
Editorial: Trumpian tropism
On the US markets, Donald Trump’s election triggered a
rise across the equity markets, long-term rates and the
dollar, as well as a tightening in swap spreads. The
markets have bought a resolutely Keynesian twist in US
fiscal policy as well as a positive impact of this shift on
real economic growth. But is this optimism justified?
Firstly, we ought to bear in mind that there is a great
deal of uncertainty on the shape of the new
administration’s economic policy. The most surprising
aspect is that euphoria on Wall Street completely
ignores the possibility that certain campaign promises
will be implemented – promises that would have an
incredibly damaging impact on the US cycle, particularly
the major shift towards protectionism (trade barriers)
and massive deportations of undocumented residents.
These moves would clearly have a stagflationary impact
on the US economy. Secondly, we may well raise
questions on the extent and timeframe for economic
stimulus. The infrastructure and defense investment
programs look likely to have a virtually neutral cyclical
impact on an economy that is close to full employment.
To add to this, any increase in spending cannot take
place until 2018 as the infrastructure program relies on
a hefty portion of private investment, which will take
some time to be organized. However, for the markets,
the most important aspect of Trump’s program is his
Raphaël Gallardo
corporate tax break policy. The prospect of a drastic cut
in corporation tax automatically has an obvious positive
effect on companies’ future profits and hence their share
price. Furthermore, the likely vote to apply a tax
amnesty on the repatriation of overseas corporate funds
would lead to inflows into the capital account, which
would bolster the dollar against foreign currencies.
However, we think that the White House will have to
come to an agreement with Congress on a broader and
much more austere review to US fiscal policy. Trump’s
election did not convert the Republican majority to
budgetary Keynesianism overnight. Any extensive
Republican budget programs in the past have always
taken place against recessionary backdrops. It is hard to
image the GOP embarking on a massive stimulus
program when the economy boasts virtually full
employment, and with public debt already at all-time
highs. Trump will no doubt have to considerably water
down his program and dissolve it in a wider reform where
tax cuts are offset by the elimination of various tax
niches and other tax breaks. Overall, the markets are
confidently buying the power-holding Republican party’s
conversion to budgetary Keynesianism, while playing
down the campaign’s omnipresent protectionist rhetoric.
Trump will have to choose between pleasing the markets
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and pleasing his voters.
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Asset allocation: summary of our global outlook
With a cyclical acceleration in China and the US, rising oil
prices and monetary tightening in G7 countries, the main
drivers for reflationary rotation remain. The Fed swiftly
confirmed its hawkish monetary stance after continued
solid job creation in 3Q (FOMC participants expect to
make three rates hikes in 2017) and despite fiscal
uncertainty. China is ending the year with an acceleration
in industry and retail sales. OPEC meanwhile kept its
promise to implement an important agreement to curb
output, covering more than half the oil market. Lastly, the
ECB made an initial reduction to its asset purchase
program. The markets’ hopes of a recovery in growth and
world inflation were borne out by these latest
developments. Yield curves steepened across the board,
pushing up bank valuations. Break-even inflation rates
soared. Sector rotation from growth into value stocks
continued on the equity markets, and the dollar marched
on with its rally against gold and other G10 currencies.
Tactical views
GLOBAL
--
-
=
+
Equities
●
◊
Fixed Income
◊
●
●◊
Money Market
EQUITIES
--
-
=
+
US
●◊
Europe
●◊
Japan
●
++
◊
So the real question for 2017 is whether the real economy
Asia ex Japan
will live up to the promises that the markets are buying
into as 2016 comes to an end. US business confidence is
●◊
EM
soaring as a result of hopes of massive tax cuts. Will
Congress agree to increase public deficits in order to
FIXED INCOME
-=
finance its tax cuts at the peak of the cycle and with public
debt on the rise? Can job creation, real estate and
Sovereign
◊●
consumer spending momentum hold up against a
Euro IG
backdrop of fast-rising long-term rates and a strong
dollar? A fresh increase in the US trade deficit could bring
Euro HY
◊●
Trump’s protectionist campaign rhetoric against China
back to the fore, with the risk of unsettling the complex
◊●
EM Debt
US-Chinese relationship, which is key for both
◊ : monthly views
macroeconomic and geopolitical balance worldwide. Lastly,
in Europe, consumer resilience will be put to the test by
● : views of the previous month
increasing oil prices, rising interest rates and a slew of
political events. The world recovery since 2008 had thus
far been able to rely on central banks’ goodwill. Bond
markets’ expectations of a swift rise in inflation no longer leave them with this option of cautiously
sitting tight and waiting.
◊●
+
◊●
At this stage, we play a positive scenario on the markets, at least for the first half of 2017. Equities
are set to outperform bonds. We remain underexposed in duration on sovereign bonds. We remain
long on credit and extend this stance to include US high yield. However, we remain cautious on
emerging market assets due to the risk of potential monetary and fiscal tightening in China
(overheating of economy, capital outflows) and the negative impact on emerging issuers in strong
currencies of the increase in the cost of liquidity in dollars. We go neutral on commodities, as current
levels already seem to price in a lot of the good news on the world cycle.
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++
++
Equities
"Overweight Eurozone, US and Japan vs. emerging"
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


Statistics in the Eurozone remain on a positive
trend, particularly on the outlook for consumer
spending (consumer confidence surveys) and
exports (recovery in industrial export orders, weak
euro). We will have to keep an eye on these
consumer and business confidence levels in view of
the various political events that lie ahead in the
Netherlands (elections in March), France (elections
in May-June) and Italy (elections likely to take
place in Spring). In the meantime, the ECB remains
cautious in its moves on the bond markets
(continued QE right through 2017). Equity market
valuations remain close to neutral. We therefore
overweight the Eurozone.
US equities are still buoyed by promises of tax
breaks by the future Trump administration.
Earnings revisions remain on a positive trend, as do
inflows into equity mutual funds. We continue to
overweight and favor small caps, which will benefit
the most from tax cuts and are relatively immune
to the negative effects of a rising dollar.
We maintain our overweight stance on the
Australian market, which is a pure reflation play
due to its commodities and banking focus
(steepening yield curves good for banking
transformation).
We have adopted a positive stance on Japanese
equities. The domestic outlook should improve due
to full employment and the uptick in world trade.
The sharp drop in the yen provides a profitability
boost for Japanese corporates, which also have a
hefty production base in the US. The yen is set to
remain weak due to the Bank of Japan’s cap on
long-term rates.
We remain underweight on emerging equities. In
our view, valuations do not seem to factor in
political risks (Turkey, South Korea, South Arica,
etc.) or cyclical risks (uncertainties on the outlook
for Chinese economic policy in 2017). As regards
emerging markets, we overweight Mexico and
Taiwan.
Share price/future profits, adjusted for
sector composition
Source : Datastream
Tactical views
EQUITIES
--
-
=
+
Developed markets
US
●◊
Europe
◊●
Japan
●
Asia ex
Japan
◊
◊●
Emerging markets
●◊
Asia
Europe
◊●
Latam
●◊
◊ : monthly views
● : views of the previous month
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++
Fixed income
"Long European and US credit vs. G4 sovereign debt"



We remain heavily underweight in duration on the
Eurozone. In December, the ECB took concrete
action on the need to reduce monthly purchases to
their March 2016 level, cutting back from €80bn to
€60bn per month. However, the minimum length for
the program was extended to the full year 2017, and
this met with a positive welcome from the markets.
Draghi’s resolutely cautious tone, particularly as
regards political risk in 2017 ("uncertainty prevails
everywhere") limited the increase in long-term
sovereign rates. However, we think that the cutback
in monthly purchases will focus on sovereigns, and
not affect IG credit, ABS and covered bond
purchases. The easing in technical constraints on
sovereign bond purchases focused on the short end,
extending to one-year maturities and allowing
purchases below the ECB deposit rate. The weak
euro and the rebound in oil prices promote an
increase in inflation expectations. The yield curve
should continue to steepen.
We maintain our stance on Eurozone Investment
Grade credit following the ECB’s decision to continue
its asset purchase program in 2017.
We overweight US inflation-linked products: the
increase in long-term rates was too severe and this
trend should turn around as the most exposed
sectors to debt flows weaken (real estate,
automotive). We maintain our exposure to US IG
credit and round it out with a play on US High Yield,
which has a duration close to 5 years and benefits
from the improvement in the energy sector.
Euro area : increase in inflation due to oil prices
Source : Datastream
Tactical views
FIXED
INCOME
--
-
=
+
++
Sovereign bonds
Euro Core
◊●
Euro
Periph
◊●
UK
◊●
US
◊●
Japan
◊●
Inflation
◊●
Credit
●◊
Euro IG
US IG
●
€High
Yield
◊●
$High
Yield
●
EM Debt
◊
◊
◊
●
◊ : monthly views
● : views of the previous month
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Commodities
“Strong dollar, doubts on Chinese demand, resilience for US frackers: back
to neutral”

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

OPEC managed to garner support from most nonOPEC producers for its program to curb overall
output by 1.76m bpd, particularly Russia, which
pledged a reduction of 300,000 bpd. Saudi Arabia
gave its commitment even greater credibility,
indicating that it was willing to go further in the
reduction of its own production. The crude oil market
should get back to balance mid-2017.
Base metals price & China’s construction cycle
However, a number of doubts remain on
participants’ true intentions to cut their output. The
temptation will be great for several governments
with liquidity crises to free ride and take advantage
of this move. Nigeria and Libya, which did not sign
up to the agreement, could pull off a surprise and
ramp up production, offsetting curbs from other
OPEC members. Lastly, the significant flattening in
the forward curve despite continued high crude oil
stocks points to hedging on future production by US
producers whose breakeven is around $40-50/b. US
producers may bolster their investment to win
market share freed up by OPEC. In this scenario, oil
could fall below the $50/b mark.
Metal prices are buoyed by the overall reflationary
trend across all financial markets (for example,
speculation is reaching record levels on copper).
However, this appetite for metals sits against an
increase in the dollar. More precisely speaking,
Chinese demand is vital to the metal cycle. The
Chinese real estate cycle could turn around following
measure taken by the authorities to ease speculation
on real estate assets in large cities.
We are back to a neutral stance on gold, which is
suffering from the dollar’s rising value.
Source : Datastream
Tactical views
Commodities
--
-
=
Oil
◊
●
Industrial
metals
●
◊
Gold
◊
+
●
◊ : monthly views
● : views of the previous month
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++
Quantitative indicators
ECONOMIC SITUATION
Dégradée
Poor
1
2 3 4 5 Bonne
Good
This continuous indicator, which stands
between -1 and +1, allows us to assess
the world economic outlook. It is based
on the level and/or momentum of a range
of macroeconomic data (growth, inflation,
valuation, earnings).
 The higher this indicator, the more
we favor risky assets.
MARKET TRENDS
Dégradée
Downtrend
1 2 3 4 5 Bonne
Uptrend
This continuous indicator, which stands
between -1 and +1, reflects medium-term
momentum on the equity markets relative
to the fixed income markets. It is based
on moving averages of variable length,
defined on the basis of volatility.
 If the indicator is positive, we
prefer risky assets.
RISK APPETITE
Dégradée
Low 1
2 3 4 5 Bonne
High
This continuous indicator, which stands
between -1 and +1, shows the extent to
which various market players are looking
for risk in the short term. It is based on
an analysis of the level of risk (measured
by volatility) and how it is remunerated by
the market (measured by premiums or
spreads).
 The higher this indicator, the more
we favor risky assets.
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Theoretical model portfolio
Benchmark
Current portfolio
Deviation /
benchmark
Cash
Eonia
EUR / GBP
USD / MXN
10.0%
10.0%
-
17.3%
17.3%
-2.0%
-2.0%
7.3%
7.3%
-2.0%
-2.0%
Government Bonds
Euro
Euro Inflation
US
Gilt
Italy
US Inflation
40.0%
32.0%
4.0%
4.0%
-
22.5%
10.0%
6.5%
4.0%
2.0%
-17.5%
-22.0%
2.5%
Spreads
Euro Credit
Euro High Yield
US High Yield
US IG
15.0%
15.0%
-
22.0%
19.0%
1.0%
2.0%
7.0%
4.0%
Emerging bonds
$ EMD
-
-
Developed equities
EMU
Europe ex-EMU
North America
Japan
Pacific ex-Japan
Australia
Europe Construction
Europe Insurance
US Small Cap
20.0%
2.0%
3.0%
12.0%
2.0%
1.0%
-
25.8%
3.3%
1.5%
12.0%
3.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
2.0%
5.8%
1.3%
-1.5%
Emerging equities
Emerging Asia
Latam
EMEA
Taiwan
Mexico
10.0%
7.0%
1.5%
1.5%
-
7.5%
5.0%
0.5%
0.5%
1.5%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
0.5%
1.5%
Commodites
Oil
Industrial metals
Gold
5.0%
2.5%
1.3%
1.3%
5.0%
2.5%
1.3%
1.3%
100.0%
100.0%
Asset classes
Change /
previous Month
2.0%
1.0%
2.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
2.0%
-
-
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Contributors
Coordination by the multi-asset allocation department: the Investment and Client Solutions
division of Natixis Asset Management
Franck Nicolas – Head of Investment and Client Solutions
Raphael Gallardo – Multiasset strategist - Investment and Client Solutions
Written on December 16, 2016
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